True .300 Hitters


True .300 Hitters

Ron Shandler and Co. have determined that true .300 hitters post a contact rate of 86% or better and a walk rate of 11% or better.  Contact rate is defined as (AB-K)/AB.  For our purposes I'll relax the standards to 85% and 10% and see what we can find.  (Interesting side note, Fantasy Sports Ventures just purchased Baseball HQ for over a million bucks.)

NAME CR BB% AVG
Chipper Jones 91.1% 11.4% 0.418
Lance Berkman 87.8% 13.9% 0.388
Rafael Furcal 88.8% 12.3% 0.366
Albert Pujols 89.9% 22.5% 0.355
Sean Casey 93.1% 10.8% 0.345
Ryan Theriot 89.9% 11.7% 0.336
Conor Jackson 92.3% 10.5% 0.331
Joe Mauer 92.0% 12.4% 0.328
Blake Dewitt 87.4% 10.3% 0.320
Brian Schneider 85.9% 10.3% 0.318
Hideki Matsui 86.3% 10.1% 0.317
Yunel Escobar 85.4% 11.4% 0.313
Brian McCann 91.9% 10.5% 0.309
Derrek Lee 86.0% 10.3% 0.305
Carlos Guillen 85.4% 11.9% 0.292
Skip Schumaker 88.0% 10.7% 0.289
Todd Helton 87.2% 15.8% 0.284
Jacoby Ellsbury 88.9% 13.3% 0.282
Alberto Callaspo 94.1% 12.1% 0.275
Scott Podsednik 85.7% 13.8% 0.265
Gregg Zaun 88.3% 10.8% 0.262
Brian Giles 87.8% 14.9% 0.259
Edwin Encarnacion 85.0% 11.4% 0.259
Frank Catalanotto 86.0% 11.9% 0.256
J.J. Hardy 86.6% 10.5% 0.254
Mark Teixeira 85.2% 12.3% 0.254
Cesar Izturis 94.4% 10.4% 0.250
Rich Aurilia 85.7% 10.1% 0.245
Luis Castillo 89.6% 13.5% 0.245
Mark Ellis 88.2% 10.9% 0.242
Ryan Garko 86.3% 10.3% 0.234
Kevin Millar 85.8% 10.2% 0.230
Alfredo Amezaga 86.7% 10.0% 0.229
Shannon Stewart 88.7% 11.6% 0.227
Josh Bard 86.2% 10.7% 0.216
Scott Hatteberg 88.6% 13.2% 0.205
Chin-lung Hu 87.0% 10.0% 0.204
Doug Mientkiewicz 92.9% 11.1% 0.196
Jason Giambi 85.1% 17.6% 0.188
Maicer Izturis 93.3% 10.6% 0.187
Jamey Carroll 85.2% 10.4% 0.185

You can see many nice buying opportunities here with guys like Encarnacion, Hardy, Teixeira, and Garko.

I'm not seeing much on the sell high side of the ledger.  These guys have CRs below 80% and walk rates below 7% but are hitting at least .287, but I still like most of them:

NAME CR BB% AVG
Greg Dobbs 78.8% 5.3% 0.327
Matt Kemp 72.8% 4.8% 0.309
Jeremy Hermida 76.3% 6.4% 0.298
Clete Thomas 77.0% 4.5% 0.295
Adrian Gonzalez 78.4% 6.8% 0.290
Hunter Pence 77.6% 6.4% 0.287
Ryan Braun 79.9% 4.6% 0.287



True .300 Hitters

How about we bust out some True .300 Hitters?  For this exercise, we'll identify who has a contact rate ((AB-K)/AB) of 85% or better and a walk rate (BB/PA) of 10% or better.  The true criteria, devised by Ron Shandler and Co., are a bit tighter (86%/11%).

Anyway, this should help us identify some early AVG under/overperformers.

The first list is those who meet the true .300 hitter criteria and have at least 30 PAs.  It's nice to see Luke Scott in this list.  These guys are fairly legit. (Props to Mike Sweeney - zero whiffs so far!)

NAME CR BB% AVG
A.J. Pierzynski 91.4% 10.3% 0.400
Albert Pujols 90.2% 24.1% 0.390
James Loney 86.4% 11.8% 0.386
Billy Butler 86.4% 10.2% 0.386
Angel Pagan 89.7% 14.3% 0.385
Luke Scott 86.1% 12.2% 0.361
Alfredo Amezaga 96.2% 20.6% 0.346
Kevin Youkilis 90.9% 11.5% 0.341
Yunel Escobar 85.1% 14.3% 0.340
Raul Ibanez 93.9% 14.0% 0.327
Ryan Garko 90.0% 20.0% 0.325
Josh Bard 91.2% 12.5% 0.324
Brian Schneider 86.5% 13.6% 0.324
Jeff Keppinger 96.0% 10.3% 0.320
Brian McCann 95.1% 10.6% 0.317
Carlos Guillen 88.6% 20.5% 0.314
Lance Berkman 86.7% 10.0% 0.311
Eric Byrnes 90.0% 12.3% 0.300
Brian Giles 90.0% 12.5% 0.300
Eric Hinske 85.2% 12.9% 0.296
Melky Cabrera 90.3% 10.5% 0.290
Milton Bradley 85.7% 12.2% 0.286
Conor Jackson 92.9% 13.5% 0.286
Shannon Stewart 92.0% 16.1% 0.280
David Dellucci 90.9% 20.0% 0.273
Nick Johnson 86.8% 15.2% 0.263
Mike Sweeney 100.0% 12.8% 0.256
Mark Ellis 88.5% 13.1% 0.250
Skip Schumaker 92.5% 13.0% 0.250
Hank Blalock 87.8% 10.6% 0.244
Aubrey Huff 86.7% 10.0% 0.244
Ryan Theriot 87.8% 10.6% 0.244
Austin Kearns 85.7% 17.0% 0.238
Aramis Ramirez 87.2% 12.5% 0.234
Kevin Millar 86.4% 10.0% 0.227
Orlando Cabrera 90.0% 16.3% 0.225
Justin Morneau 85.0% 14.6% 0.225
Cesar Izturis 90.6% 19.0% 0.219
Mark Teixeira 87.2% 11.3% 0.213
Luis Castillo 89.7% 14.3% 0.207
Jose Vidro 91.5% 11.3% 0.191
Gary Sheffield 85.7% 23.7% 0.179
Kenji Johjima 91.2% 10.5% 0.118
Jason Giambi 85.7% 18.9% 0.107

And now the flip side - those hitting .300 who do not meet the criteria.  Some guys can consistently hit .300 anyway, but many on this list will regress.

NAME CR BB% AVG
Justin Upton 75.6% 9.6% 0.400
Hanley Ramirez 79.2% 7.4% 0.396
Clete Thomas 66.7% 6.5% 0.370
Ryan Doumit 83.8% 2.6% 0.351
Matt Holliday 78.7% 7.7% 0.340
Jermaine Dye 83.3% 6.7% 0.333
Brendan Harris 84.8% 7.9% 0.333
Alex Gordon 81.3% 4.0% 0.333
Ryan Church 81.4% 6.4% 0.326
Coco Crisp 83.9% 5.9% 0.323
Stephen Drew 82.9% 4.5% 0.317
Adrian Gonzalez 75.9% 5.2% 0.315
Grady Sizemore 77.1% 8.8% 0.313
Ian Kinsler 79.2% 7.1% 0.313
Brandon Phillips 78.8% 8.8% 0.308
Bobby Abreu 78.3% 8.0% 0.304
Kevin Kouzmanoff 79.2% 3.5% 0.302
Manny Ramirez 70.0% 7.4% 0.300



True .300 Hitters

The research of Ron Shandler and Co. says:

The .300 hitters most often come from the group with a minimum 86% contact and 11% walk rate.

Let's loosen those thresholds to 84% and 9% and see who reached 'em in '07 (minimum 300 plate appearances).  Turns out that 14 of the 30 players found hit .290 or better in '07.

NAME CR BB% AVG
Magglio Ordonez 86.7% 11.3% 0.363
Chipper Jones 85.4% 13.8% 0.337
Albert Pujols 89.7% 14.9% 0.327
Vladimir Guerrero 89.2% 11.0% 0.324
Todd Helton 86.7% 17.2% 0.320
Jose Vidro 89.6% 10.3% 0.314
Scott Hatteberg 90.3% 12.0% 0.310
Kenny Lofton 91.2% 11.0% 0.303
Jeff Kent 87.7% 10.3% 0.302
Victor Martinez 86.5% 9.9% 0.301
Garrett Atkins 84.1% 10.0% 0.301
Casey Kotchman 90.3% 10.7% 0.296
Joe Mauer 87.2% 12.3% 0.292
Brian Roberts 84.1% 12.5% 0.290
Mike Lamb 85.5% 10.4% 0.289
Hideki Matsui 86.7% 11.8% 0.285
Josh Bard 85.1% 11.4% 0.285
Conor Jackson 88.0% 11.3% 0.284
Andre Ethier 84.8% 9.3% 0.284
Jose Reyes 88.5% 10.2% 0.280
Luis Gonzalez 87.9% 10.8% 0.278
Barry Bonds 84.1% 28.0% 0.276
Brian Giles 87.4% 11.7% 0.271
Justin Morneau 84.6% 9.8% 0.271
Johnny Damon 85.2% 11.0% 0.270
Gary Sheffield 85.6% 14.5% 0.265
Marco Scutaro 88.2% 9.4% 0.260
David DeJesus 86.3% 9.6% 0.260
Carlos Ruiz 86.9% 10.1% 0.259
Brian Schneider 86.3% 12.1% 0.235

  • Of course the intriguing guys are the ones at the bottom!  DeJesus seems likely to bounce back to the .290 range. 
  • Ruiz I have at .271-11-56-50-5, a solid $7.67 value.  A .290 average could add a good three bucks to his value though.
  • I have Morneau hitting .281, making him worth $13.19.  A .300 average makes him a $17 player.




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