Trading


Stock Watch: Great Players and Early Disappointments

This article is about playing the percentages. All the hitters I suggest trading for this week are stars you invested heavily for—and are dragging you’re their teams down. It’s a lot more common for stars like these to have lousy month (or three) than a lost entire season, or to regress to retirement age all at once. On the whole, expect most to bounce back. Unfortunately, I can’t give any guarantees about them individually…. 

Trade For

Buster Posey and Joe Mauer haven’t done their owners many favors at catcher this year, but unless you drafted Jonathan Lucroy, that’s probably true for your catcher too. As the top talents at their position, this pair is more likely to bounce back than the Wilin Rosarios of the world. 

David Wright and Evan Longoria haven’t seemed to put anything together either, but both have such long track records of excellence that they should fix it up and power your lineup in the second half. Longoria is the better target of the two, since he’s younger and therefore less likely to be underproducing due to suddenly-advanced-age.

Dustin Pedroia and Jason Kipnis—like Posey and Mauer—are just two of several disappointments at their position. Like their catching counterparts, Pedroia and Kipnis still have the most overall talent* at their position and, therefore, make the best buy-low candidates.

*I have no more idea than anyone else where Robinson Cano’s power went. But as long as he’s hitting over .320 it’s hard to really call him slumping. And as long as the power's out, it's hard to advise you to trade for him.

Matt Holliday and Shin-Soo Choo were once extremely stable producers, but both have seen their power fall off a cliff, and their averages are following. Choo isn’t even stealing. I always worry when I don’t know why a player is underperforming so badly (which is pretty often, to be honest; I’m not a scout and I’m not the players’ trainer), but both of these players have track records long enough to bet on in principle.

Cliff Lee is showing good progress from the DL and stands a decent chance of being traded away from the struggling Phillies (again). Any pitcher who’s already injured is a huge risk, but the potential rewards from Lee are significant. Especially on a good team…. 

Speaking of getting traded, Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel are on the block. You can be pretty confident that any team that trades for them will be better for the wins than the Cubs. While there’s always the worry of getting traded to the AL East, Samardzija has been linked with the Giants and Hammel with the Mariners. Also, Hammel has pitched well for about two and a half months longer than I expected, so I’ll give him some credit for that.

I was going to put Johnny Cueto on my “Trade Away” list, ‘cause, you know…he’s just too good to be real. Well yeah. But the thing is, Cueto has beaten his FIP every season of his Major League career—since 2008. (It wasn’t super-pronounced in the beginning, but still.) So he’s got a 2.76 FIP right now, and a history of putting up even better ERA’s…I want to be on the buying side of a sell-high trade, I think. He can regress a bit and still work out very, very well for whoever ends up with him.

Trade Away 

I have nothing against Jose Bautista or Josh Hamilton’s production this year. But it’s been pretty much forever (since 2011, which we all barely remember) since Bautista was healthy all year. Trading him now, when his production is off-the-charts-awesome, is purely a risk-mitigation strategy. Hamilton is just now back from (this) injury, but there could easily be more coming down the road. I’d rather deal these guys too early than be stuck with nothing—at least if I’m near the top of the standings.

Jean Segura and Everth Cabrera are managing sub-.600 OPS’s. So how do you get anything of value out of them? From owners who are desperate for steals, of course! It might not be much, but they should return something better than what you can find on the waiver wire, or at least sweeten a larger deal. Neither one is hitting well enough to keep around if you aren’t speed-starved. 

George Springer may not have a higher point in his trade value this season. Rookies always have their ups and downs, and as good as it is to get them off the waiver wire in time for the ups, it’s even better to trade them for a high price before the downs. (Note: sometimes the rookie is Mike Trout and never ends up having downs but becomes the best player in baseball. Life is tough that way.) Gregory Polanco is off to a hot first week in the Majors, and that means I’d start dangling him in trade offers right away. You can’t count on a 10-homer month for every prospect you want to trade….

Josh Beckett, like Bautista and Hamilton above, is actually a player who’s production I believe in. You know I spent half of this season urging everyone in the world to pick him up. But like his hitting brethren, Beckett has a long and varied history of injury and carries, therefore, more injury risk than most. That’s the sort of thing it’s better to mitigate while you still can.

I have no idea what’s up with Justin Verlander. And neither does he. He just got lit up again and isn’t generating strikeouts. I’m starting to think the bold play here is to cut bait and try to get something playable for him if there’s anyone left willing to take the risk. Note that this goes against the percentage-playing theory of most of this article, but combined with last year, there does seem to be a trajectory here and it isn’t towards continued excellence.

Pick Up

That’s a lot of trade talk, so we’ll make the waiver wire suggestions quick. Real quick.

Shallow Leagues (30-50%)

Collin McHugh (37%) and Jose Quintana (32%--he’s back!) are your pickup pitchers this week.

Marlon Byrd (48%), Kendrys Morales (41%), and Adam Lind (35%--yes, still) all pack some punch for you shallow-leaguers needing a hitter. 

Medium Leagues (20-30%)

Juan Francisco (25%) is looking like a real power source and Eric Young (20%) is off the DL and ready to steal.

Jaime Garcia (25%) looks like a Wins and WHIP helper, but I say that every week, don’t I? Well, that’s what happens when you have a 0.96 WHIP for the Cardinals. Jake Arrieta (21%) is the opposite, having been helpful in strikeouts and ERA thus far. He’s also been mentioned in the Cubs’ trade talks. (Same link as Hammel, above.)

Deep Leagues (Under 20%) 

Denard Span (19%) could be a steals source who actually hits occasionally. Brandon Crawford (17%) has been a lot better than most shortstops this year, especially if you play in an OBP or SLG league. (But he’s still kinda good in regular formats too.) Matt Dominguez (12%) may offer more power than your current CI player. I said bad things yesterday about Luis Valbuena (5%) and his chances of keeping his average up, but I read this article that suggests maybe he can be useful after all. Good for you, Luis Valbuena!

Kevin Gausman (14%) and Josh Tomlin (11%) have little in common…except that they can both (probably) help your fantasy team. 

Hey, for me, this counts as really brief!



Stock Watch: Short-Term Gains

Sometimes you need to look at the big picture with a player, to see his numbers in the context of his current season, his recent-years trends, and even his entire career arc. 

Specifically, that time is draft day. It isn’t today. That’s why—like last week—we’ll be putting on some short-term blinders and looking at short-term trends, hoping for short-term gain. Basically, we’re taking the title of this column literally and playing the fantasy stock market. Fortunately, we (probably) can’t tank the world economy if we screw up. 

But to be on the safe side, we’ll emphasize the waiver wire instead of telling you to trade every player on your team for Edwin Encarnacion

Trade For 

Albert Pujols looked like he was back in April—but he’s rocking just a .216 average for (essentially, it’s the last 30 days anyway) May. I’m still more encouraged by Pujols showing us good play than I am a lousy average, but his owner might be getting antsy. Looks like a good opportunity to me.

What’s up with Buster Posey? I almost tried to trade for him and maybe I should have. Unless you find out about an injury, trust stars to return to their starry level and make offers on them when they slump. 

Masahiro Tanaka is showing absolutely no sign of slowing down. Sometimes it takes  another trip around the league for that to happen (I keep thinking about Dontrelle Willis for some reason, but that can’t possibly be fair), but I’m more encouraged by the sustained success. Match up with an owner looking to sell high if you need premium pitching.

Evan Longoria is too good a hitter to keep up a powerless, sub .270 average, right? Right. Take advantage.

It appears time to admit that John Lackey is good again.

Xander Bogaerts is hitting the ball very well and is worth thinking about if his owner hasn’t already started to depend on him. 

After an atrocious April, Khris Davis has hit six homers and batted nearly .300 over the last month. Which one is the real Khris? It probably won’t take that much to find out…. 

Alcides Escobar has outstolen Billy Hamilton 10-9 in the last 30 days. That’s got to count for something.

Trade Away 

I was offered the chance to deal Chris Sale, and maybe I should have taken it: you get offered good stuff for pitchers with 0.50 ERA’s in the last month. Actually, I was offered Tim Hudson, and if I took that trade, I’d fire myself from RotoAuthority. Incidentally, I don’t blame the other owner for offering the deal—Hudson is a great trade away candidate too. 

Ian Kinsler’s .308 average and five combined homers and steals really isn’t that great—but with other second basemen underperforming or only just returning from injury, those numbers start looking pretty good. Deal him before his bettors straighten out. 

Nelson Cruz has 12 homers in the last 30 days, which would be impressive if Encarnacion wasn’t doing what he’s doing. Actually, it is impressive. Cruz is a high-quality fantasy player (as in, better than his real life value), but he isn’t this good. But it’s plausible, you know? Plausible enough for you to get good stuff back for him.

You absolutely have to trade Shelby Miller. Seriously, look up his advanced stats. Get him off your team. 

Chris Archer looks like he’s pitching good. If you don’t look at his WHIP. Maybe a trade partner won’t? Hey, it’s worth a shot.

It’s obvious enough, but George Springer is literally the perfect trade candidate: super prospect (check), double-digit homers in the last month (check)…uh, actually that’s all there needs to be.

Pick Up
Shallow Leagues (30-50% Ownership)

Drew Pomeranz (48%) is so far justifying all of us who’ve been suggesting him. Keep it up, Drew.

Mike Leake (45%) has been pitching pretty hot lately, (2.14 ERA, 1.10 WHIP). I can’t get excited about anyone with his low levels of strikeouts, but the short-term value could be there until he runs colder.

Trevor Bauer (32%)—now that’s someone I can be excited about (21 K’s in 16.1 IP). Not that his ERA (4.41) or WHIP (1.47) recommend him, but if you’re in need of counting stats….

Marcell Ozuna (46%) has powered five homers this month. That’s a lot better than most on the waiver wire—and better than most in my own outfields….

Jon Singleton (45%) is totally the headliner of this club. Well worth picking him up; though be warned that he isn’t a Springer or an Oscar Taveras-quality prospect.

Lonnie Chisenhall (41%) has given us the best month of his Major League life (I assume—I didn’t care enough to look it up), and the remotest chance that this is a sign that he’ll be a playable third baseman going forward means he should be owned. 

This isn’t a pickup recommendation, it’s just amazing: Jonathan Villar (39%) has an OPS of .343 in the last month. That’s straight-up amazing. And there’s no way that’s worth those five steals. Cut him. 

Adam Lind (39%) has batted .375 in the last month, mostly since returning from the DL. Well worth your CI slot.

Derek Jeter (34%) is offering an empty .280 average. That’s actually pretty good for a shortstop.

Medium Leagues (20-30% Ownership)

Ryan Vogelsong (30%) has been an all-around quality pitcher for the last month’s worth of starts. He’s done this before, so there could be something useful here. But be ready to let him go at the first sign of trouble, because when he’s bad, he’s very, very bad.

Jason Vargas (29%) is actually putting up similar numbers to Bauer, but the high-K’s, high-WHIP fits less well with his history, making the walks/hits scarier and the K’s less enticing.

Bartolo Colon (28%) has pitched pretty well this month and still has more starts than walks on the season. Hey, low-K guys look more exciting the deeper your league….

Jaime Garcia (26%) probably won’t keep striking out a batter per inning, but halfway decent Cardinals pitchers seem like a great source of potential wins.

Seth Smith (29%) continues to rake in a platoon role. You can use that, honest.

David Murphy (23%) and Gerardo Parra (20%) are both hitting decently well in  more or less full-time roles. 

Deep Leagues (Less than 20% Ownership)

Bronson Arroyo (17%) is separated from Leake in uniform but not in spirit, as he too is pitching well without getting strikeouts. Henderson Alvarez (16%) also appears cut from the same cloth, and is also riding a wave of recent success.

Roenis Elias (14%) might be settling in nicely, with a decent strikeout rate and a 1.15 WHIP. 

Tommy Milone (12%) is on fire, with a 0.66 WHIP and a 1.67 ERA. Of course, he can’t generate strikeouts either, but pitching for the A’s has brought him three wins. His situation recommends him to better season-long success than most.

Gavin Floyd (10%) and Josh Collmenter (9%) are getting surprisingly good results lately.

Jake Odorizzi (7%) has a pretty extreme strikeout total (37 K’s in 25 IP) and a WHIP that actually hasn’t been that bad lately (1.24).

Omar Infante (14%) isn’t hitting at all—but at least he’s healthy.

Denard Span (13%) is a great value at this ownership level: he’s batting over .300 with four steals in the last month. (Hey, I didn’t say he was a star, did I?)

Conor Gillaspie (12%) and Gordon Beckham (12%) are hitting quite well for the White Sox, with Beckham even knocking four homers. And I'd given up on him years ago....

Matt Dominguez (12%) has been surprisingly steady, with an average that doesn’t kill you and a bit of power.

John Jaso (12%) is the hot hitting catcher of the day. You never know how long it’ll last, but what if you just devoted your catcher slot to whoever happens to be on a hot streak? Maybe I’ll try it sometime.

Michael Saunders (11%) is giving us one of those months that remind us why he sometimes got drafted in past years. It won't last, but it doesn't really have to, does it?



RotoAuthority League Update: A Lesson in Fantasy Remorse

The RotoAuthority League is a highly competitive 12-team fantasy baseball league run by Tim Dierkes. The settings consist of standard 5 X 5 Rotisserie scoring and 23-man lineups along with 4 bench spots. In an effort to keep owners interested as well as to infuse new blood into the league, the teams that finish below 8th place are kicked out of the league each year. The author of this column just hopes he isn't one of them.

Let's be honest. There's nothing more annoying than hearing someone talk about his or her fantasy team, but you'll have to excuse me this week, readers. With all due respect to the other owners in the league, I'm going to be selfish this week and focus on my squad, A Century of Misery. Don't worry; I do think there's a larger point here.

First, though, I need to present a little backstory. In January I provided my own personal top 12 as I analyzed how I'd approach drafting in the first round of a fantasy draft this spring. One of the rankings that stood out to some readers was placing Edwin Encarnacion at tenth overall. It was certainly a bullish ranking, and you'd be hard-pressed to find any other website that had the Blue Jays star any higher. Heck, I'll admit it; even I was worried I was getting carried with my Man Crush when I saw other sites had him outside the top 25. When I removed the names and focused simply on the skills, however, I just couldn't get past the rosy outlook for Edwin heading into this season.

Now flash forward to the RotoAuthority League Draft in March. Once I found out I had the twelfth pick, I knew I'd be taking Encarnacion at the turn, and I even wrote about it in my draft preview. Sure enough, I ended up grabbing Edwin along with Chris Davis with my first couple picks in the draft. I was quite satisfied with a foundation built around power at the corners, as the Blue Jays star is eligibile at third base in Yahoo! leagues.

Well, that brings us to mid-April. In my first deal of the season, I traded Encarnacion along with Cody Allen to Pulling Brzenk in exchange for Stephen Strasburg and Martin Prado. You can read my rationale behind the move here, but it boils down to a couple of things. For one, Encarnacion was striking out a ton early on this season. One of the first statistics to stabilize each season is strikeout rate, and he had one of the most significant spikes after a couple weeks. I'll admit it: I was worried he wasn't fully healthy coming off offseason surgery. Meanwhile, Strasburg was flashing elite skills despite getting poor results. He made for a sabermetrician's ideal Buy Low target at the time, and I felt compulsed to get relatively fair value for Encarnacion if by chance he was indeed hurt and his early season struggles continued.

Well, if you've been paying to baseball in May at all, you know how this story ends. Edwin Encarnacion just tied Mickey Mantle for most HR in May in the history of the American League. The Blue Jays first baseman is completely locked in and now ranks as a truly elite commodity in fantasy baseball. Going forward, I'd take Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, and Giancarlo Stanton over him. That might be the full list, though. I should say it's not as if I've been disappointed by Strasburg. He's been great and should be one the best pitchers going forward. In today's game, you have to take the elite hitters over the top pitchers.

The lesson in all of this is that if I clearly preferred Encarnacion to Strasburg at the outset of the season, I really shouldn't have let two weeks of games change my valuations all that much. We hear it all the time, but the fantasy baseball season is a grind. More often than not, the best action in April is no action at all. This trade will certainly sting for awhile, especially given that I actually loved E5 going into the season. My team has risen out of the bottom four of the standings, but I'm not sure my roster has what it takes to take home the title. If I never would have made this trade, though, I'd be right in the thick of things. Excuse me while I go get drunk...



Stock Watch: What Have You Done for Me Lately?

This week in Stock Watch, we’re going to take a look at some trade and waiver strategies that take the last month’s play into extra account, to see if any useful trends can be spotted. There's a lot to see, so let's dive right in.

Trade For

Jay Bruce has been injured and terrible this year, and more of both in the month of May. Why trade for him? For one thing, his owners are probably getting impatient. I remember last year, when he was also terrible (and not even hurt) at this point in the season…and still put up great overall numbers. I’d be willing to bet that he turns it around and gives us another high-power, low-average year. 

Wilin Rosario is someone to trade for if you still believe in him as a hitter at all. I do—two years of good power gets more than a couple bad months benefit of the doubt for me. Like Bruce, he’s been really, really bad, so get a good price and cross your fingers.

Jason Heyward isn’t doing bad this month—in fact, he seems to have finally picked things up. Maybe it’s the beginning of the Big Breakout that we all knew was coming eventually…for the last several years. Or maybe it’s not, but this game is about taking chances, and the Heyward upside is worth it.

Jean Segura is another guy with lousy full-season stats that are dragged down by a horrible April. He hasn’t been bad in May, but that might not stop his owners from being disgruntled—especially in roto formats, where the owner might not be looking too closely at week-by-week stats.

Adam Jones has the same story: his season stats look like they’re dragging down his roto teams, but he’s pretty much back to form for the last 30 days. Take advantage if you can, because I don’t see anything to worry about here. 

Mike Minor hasn’t quite gotten it back together since coming off the DL. It’s been a few starts and he’s been…well, he’s been OK. Maybe his owner is thinking that’s Minor’s level for the year. I ain’t. He’ll be back to form, hopefully on your team.

Jeff Samardzija is someone I told you to trade away last week…hopefully you didn’t, ‘cause I’ve changed my mind. This article put things in better perspective, but I wasn’t convinced until I saw for myself that his May K/9 is back near 9.0. Not only that, but there’s a great chance the woebegone Cubbies deal him to a team with a Major League offense sometime this summer. Don’t be afraid to admit it when you’re wrong: I’d make a deal for Samardzija. 

Trade Away

Mark Teixeira is clubbing the ball like crazy this month. What? I’d thought his career was pretty much gone, but I guess not. Actually, I’m still not that confident in him making it through the year with his power. Sell while he’s healthy and the number eight still shows up in his last 30 days’ homer production. 

Matt Adams isn’t putting up the power he showed last year—in fact, he’s giving little more than a BABIP-inflated batting average. I’m willing to end the experiment before his BABIP drops and Oscar Taveras takes his place in the lineup.

Don’t get me wrong, I believe in Yasiel Puig. (Now anyway.) But he’s hitting at as close to the top of his game as you can expect and his trade value probably won’t ever be higher. Make a huge splash and deal him. Your opponent will get great production, but you ought to get even more. 

George Springer is blowing up the fantasy-site advice articles with his red-hot May…so trade him. Yeah, he’s good, but rookie phenoms can almost always return more value in trade than they give in the lineup.

Jordan Zimmermann is not pitching well, and I’m not sure he has the strikeout rate to recover himself. I’d make a deal while people still have their preseason rankings in their heads.

Jered Weaver has been lights-out this month; point that out when you deal him, especially if your staff needs to be giving you more K/9 in an innings-limited league.

Yordano Ventura has something called “valgus stress overload.” (No, I didn’t make that name up—but I wish I was that creative.) I don’t know exactly what that means, but it sounds…bad, and apparently it affects in-game management of velocity. I’d deal him and hope that someone else wants to take a chance on his upside.

Josh Beckett just threw a no-hitter! I love a no-hitter as much as anyone (more actually, since I learned baseball from my Nolan Ryan-fan father), but that’s the best press Beckett’s getting all year. Plus, he threw a ton of pitches after relatively low innings counts for most of this season. By now, we all know the drill when it comes to high pitch counts and no-hitters.... 

Pick Up
Shallow Leagues (30-50% Ownership)
 

Phil Hughes (46%) is lighting things up this month. Who knew? 

Dexter Fowler (43%) is quietly playing pretty well, doing—as he does—a little of everything.

Ubaldo Jimenez (40%) has actually been pretty good in May, though his overall numbers don’t show it. He’ll never be great for your WHIP, but he’ll add some strikeouts.

Taijuan Walker (40%) is about to start his rehab. Go ahead and pick him up, because his ownership rate is about to spike. 

A.J. Pollock (39%) continues to hit very well. I don’t know if it’s a fluky hot streak or if he’ll be a good outfielder all season, but does it really matter? He’s good now, so if you need an OF, go for it. 

Chris Johnson (39%) has put up a good average for the last month, and that’s the only reason why you’d want him tackling third base for you. Well, that and the fact that all other 3B on the waiver wire are probably really, really bad (except those listed below--they're great).

Jon Niese (38%) is great. Pick him up. Last warning: his ownership ought to be in more like the 75% range.

Jose Quintana (37%) is pretty good too. Also last warning: his ownership ought to make it to the 50-60% range. 

Lonnie Chisenhall (32%) is finally hitting. Maybe it just took the specter of Carlos Santana taking his place at third, I don’t know. But yeah, he’s killing the ball. Pick him up on the off chance there was a reason Cleveland kept giving him chances out there.

Medium Leagues (20-30% Ownership)

David Murphy (30%) is almost graduated from this ownership level, which is too bad, because these are the kind of teams that need his brand of good-enough.

James Loney (26%) has got to be worth more than this—I mean, most of the shallowest leagues let you play multiple Util players, which means more first basemen, and getting help for your batting average is always useful. Anyone who already has Adam Dunn should get Loney too.

Ryan Vogelsong (26%) might be tricking us all, but he’s pitched like the (good) old version of himself lately. 

Dustin Ackley (23%) has been coming to play, and his 2B/OF eligibility is really helpful. 

Deep Leagues (Under 20% Ownership)

Kolten Wong (18%) has hit since returning to the Big Leagues. And hit pretty good too.

Jaime Garcia (16%) is a great add for teams in need of wins. It’s nice that he’s pitched well in his two post-DL starts.

Omar Infante (15%) is back off the DL. Hitting .270-ish is a pretty good thing for someone who can play MI and is available in 85% of leagues.

Matt Dominguez (14%) and Brandon Crawford (14%) are both offering a nice bit of power for deep leaguers interested in infielders. 

Roenis Elias (13%) has his control troubles but also has roughly a 9.0 K/9 for the month of May and a friendly home park. 

Junior Lake (11%) is really hitting well. Deep leagues can’t worry about whether or not a player is likely to keep it up—go with the hot hand while he’s hot. 

Conor Gillaspie (10%) is batting over .400 for the month. No, he doesn’t do anything else, but that’s one category more than most other waiver wire 3B available in 90% of leagues. 

Brandon McCarthy (9%) has pitched really good for a while now (excluding his most recent start, I know), and deserves to be much more widely owned than this.

Jake Odorizzi (9%) and Gavin Floyd (9%) have been strikeout machines for the last month. Odorizzi is more likely to keep it up, but also more likely burn in a fiery walk implosion.

Tommy Milone (7%) is not getting strikeouts, but Oakland is a very favorable pitching situation, with a great team and a friendly park.

Rafael Montero (7%) has shown some upside and some troubles in his first couple starts, but he’s done enough to be intriguing, that’s for sure.

Josh Tomlin (5%) was actually pretty good a couple years ago and he’s pitching nicely so far in May. More upside than one might guess. 

Nick Tepesch (5%) has had some success for Texas. They’ll have to depend on him, with about a hundred pitchers on the DL already. He ought to have a long leash and good run support.

Yunel Escobar (4%) is pretty mediocre, so if you need a short-term shortstop, he’s your guy.

David DeJesus (2%) is way, way better than almost anyone available in 98% of leagues. He doesn’t play 100% of the time, but he plays pretty well when he does. That’s probably useful in more than 2% of leagues.



RotoAuthority League Update: Trades Galore... Again

The RotoAuthority League is a highly competitive 12-team fantasy baseball league run by Tim Dierkes. The settings consist of standard 5 X 5 Rotisserie scoring and 23-man lineups along with 4 bench spots. In an effort to keep owners interested as well as to infuse new blood into the league, the teams that finish below 8th place are kicked out of the league each year. The author of this column just hopes he isn't one of them.

Once again, the RotoAuthority League doesn't fail to disappoint. It was yet another incredibly active week on the trade front in this league. Let's take a look at all of the deals that went down this past week.

05/20 - A Century of Misery agrees to trade Zack Greinke to Pulling Brzenk for Victor Martinez

As you'll see, I made a concerted effort over the past week to trade a surplus of excellent starting pitchers for quality bats. My roster has been quite unbalanced so far this season with a lights-out staff and a miserable offense. Accordingly, I made up my mind to address my offensive needs sooner rather than later. In a vacuum, I certainly don't love this deal, as I'm actually quite bullish on Greinke in Dodger Stadium. Even so, few hitters outside of Troy Tulowitzki have displayed better skills than V-Mart so far this season. Entering this week the Tigers DH has 12 HR and 13 K; that's just plain silly in today's game. As long as he can stay healthy, V-Mart should be highly productive all season long. With the league's top offense, Pulling Brzenk had some impetus to deal for Greinke, as an improved staff in the second half could be precisely what this owner needs to repeat as champion.

05/22 - The Jewru agrees to trade Nelson Cruz to A Century of Misery for Madison Bumgarner

For all intents and purposes, this deal is a carbon copy of the previous one. Once again, I dealt a highly skilled arm for a veteran hitter off to a great start this season. Once more, I don't love this trade on paper. Mad Bum is a bona fide fantasy ace at this point, and I thought I could get more in return for him. As it turned out, however, few owners wanted to move power, and Cruz was the best bat I could acquire in exchange for Bumgarner. Similar to V-Mart, Cruz should be a Roto monster, barring injury.

05/23 - The Jewru agrees to trade Julio Teheran to Brewsterville Bruins for Matt Carpenter

Looking to acquire a quality arm, the Bruins moved one of last season's top breakout performers in Carpenter in exchange for the talented Teheran. It's tough to make sense of the young Braves right-handed at this point. His skills have been good but not spectacular, yet only Jeff Samardzija and Adam Wainwright had a better ERA entering play Monday. Meanwhile, Carpenter has been fine from a real baseball perspective but is off to a slow start in fantasy. Ultimately, though, each owner dealt a player that he had placed on the block and acquired another player that addressed a need. As such, this was a rare win-win for both parties involved.

05/23 - Men With Wood agrees to trade Giancarlo Stanton to A Century of Misery for Stephen Strasburg and Carl Crawford

My third and final pitching-for-power move of the week was arguably the most exciting of all. It's tough to part with Strasburg; his skills have been elite thus far. By including Crawford, I also probably overpaid a tad. Then again, trades aren't won or lost in a vacuum; they're won or lost in the standings. Stanton is precisely the type of hitter that my offense needed. Full disclosure: he's also kind of a Man Crush. Overall, I'm not sure I won this deal on paper, but I'm confident my team should gain points in the standings as a result of it. The same can also be said for Men With Wood, whose fate likely lies in the performance of his staff going forward.

05/23 - Men With Wood agrees to trade Sean Doolittle and Mark Melancon to Brewsterville Bruins for Homer Bailey and Lorenzo Cain

With Jason Grilli set to return from the DL, Men With Wood opted to move Melancon as well as a highly skilled arm who recently was named closer in Doolittle. For my money, Cain is somewhat of a throw-in. If we assume Melancon is simply a setup man going forward, this deal ultimately boils down to Doolittle for Bailey. Make no mistake: Doolittle is an elite closer if he has the job. The sabermetricians have been waiting for a good month now for Bailey's results to begin to catch up to his peripherals, but that hasn't happened yet. Unless the Red right-hander returns to last season's form, I think the Bruins did quite well here to grab Doolittle, especially given the premium placed on saves in this league. Then again, Men With Wood is first in the league in saves by a wide margin, so this owner really isn't losing anything.

05/23 - The Bombers agree to trade Adam Dunn to Men With Wood for Emilio Bonifacio

A clear categorical move, the Bombers sought to acquire some speed while Men With Wood boosted the power on its roster. If you were to make lists of players who can address specific categorical needs yet don't cost all that much, Dunn and Bonifacio would certainly be good targets for power and speed, respectively.

05/24 - The Jewru agrees to trade Matt Carpenter and Trevor Rosenthal to Spirit of St. Louis for Wil Myers, Ryan Howard, and John Axford

Just a day after acquiring Carpenter, the Jewru flipped him along with the third baseman's teammate in Rosenthal to add some pop to roster from Myers and Howard. I guess Axford has a chance to reclaim the closer role in Cleveland, but I don't really see that taking place. Accordingly, this is by and large a two-for-two deal. After a strong Rookie campaign, Myers is in the midst of a sophomore slump; still, he's just too talented to keep hitting as he has thus far. Howard, meanwhile, has established himself as a decent source of power at the expense of AVG at this stage of his career. To me, that doesn't seem like a sufficient haul for an elite closer in Rosenthal as well as a solid middle infield option in Carpenter. Then again, Myers could just as easily catch fire as he did last season and carry the Jewru  out of the bottom four.

05/25 - Brewsterville Bruins agree to trade Jason Grilli and Mark Melancon to E-Z Sliders for Alfonso Soriano and Wade Davis

Yet another deal with saves on the move, the Brewsterville Bruins shipped Melancon out of town a couple days after acquiring him as part of a deal that also included the man who usurped his closer role in Grilli. In essence, E-Z Sliders landed one closer, as it remains to be seen whether Grilli will be able to hold onto the job all year long. In return, the Bruins got a cheap power bat in Soriano as well as one of the game's top setup men in Davis. The return does seem a tad light, given how this league values saves. Ultimately, though, it's all about the standings. A long-time league member, the Bruins find themselves with their league mortality on the line, as the squad is in last place at the moment. Trading a closer is virtually always a good proposition if you're in that position.



Stock Watch: New Stats and Other Shiny Objects

It's always nice to get new things, so I was pretty excited to see that Fangraphs.com added a new stat yesterday: K-BB%. Who would I be not to take a look and see who looks like they need to be targeted in trade—or be sent packing—based on a stat? Okay, so it's not like it's new knowledge--it's just more convenient, but that's plenty for me. 

We’ll have to cover hitters next week, because overcoming my biases of interest in favor of new stuff and pitching at the same time is impossible. Impossible.

Trade For 

Who looks good based on K-BB%? Well, you probably aren’t going to pry Masahiro Tanaka (26.3%) or David Price (24.6%) from their owners without paying a fortune, and you definitely don’t want to trade for the stat’s leader, Jose Fernandez (27.8%) in a redraft league, but that doesn’t mean you can’t like the selection of pitchers below: 

Ian Kennedy (21.2%) is looking like his old, healthy, awesome self. No, I still wouldn’t give up Cole Hamels for him, as has been asked in the comments, but I’d definitely target Kennedy in a trade. 

Corey Kluber (21.1%) will be pitching himself out of the bargain space soon, but it wasn’t too late for me to encourage my wife to target him in trade a couple days ago. I’ll encourage you to do the same, probably for the last time. Hopefully I’ll be able to hype him up enough that he makes it into the “Trade Away” section below….

Alex Wood (19.9%) is pitching well enough that you should go after him if you can handle the wasted roster slot, especially in a keeper format. Him, I believe in…teammate Aaron Harang (18.9%), not so much. When Harang’s regression comes, Wood ought to be ready. And if Harang doesn’t regress…well, weird stuff is what makes baseball great, right?

Yordano Ventura (18.5%) isn’t getting as much hype as you’d expect, but he’s proving his supporters right with a strong K-BB%. 

“What’s he do?” candidate Jesse Chavez (18.2%) continues to be excellent and I’m starting to think he’s worth prying away from owners that are as surprised as everyone else at his performance.

Trade Away 

On the other side of the K-BB% things look a little less awesome. 

It’s time to deal Shelby Miller (5%), preferably to an owner that doesn’t understand that having a 5.34 FIP means your 2.79 ERA is probably going way, way up.

Jake Peavy (6.8%) may (or may not) have some trade value left from name recognition alone. Let him go and remember his Padre days fondly. 

R.A. Dickey (7.6%) probably isn’t giving anyone much hope, but this is more reason not to have it. 

A.J. Burnett (8.1%) was a big favorite of mine before the year began, but this number really spells trouble. Nothing like a new(ly sortable) stat to snap me out of denial. It’s backed up in the difference between his ERA (3.13) and his FIP (4.32). Keep in mind also, that Philadelphia (presumably, I haven’t been hanging out there recently) hasn’t heated up for the summer to turn the park into a homer-launching pad. 

Justin Verlander (9%) makes it onto this list thanks to a strikeout rate that has pretty much shriveled up and died. His ERA and FIP are almost perfectly matched (3.15 and 3.14), but his xFIP smells trouble (4.31)…but can advanced statistics really smell?

Pick Up

Shallow Leagues (30-50% Owned)

Adam LaRoche (49%) is about to come off the DL. He was raking before the injury, so he’s worth a chance even in those shallowest of leagues in which he’s available.

Dallas Keuchel (48%) had two articles written on him yesterday, on Yahoo! and on Fangraphs. When two great oracles agree, it’s time to quit hating on the Astros and take a chance on a guy. Of course, almost half of you already have….

Eric Young (38%) is an all-worlder in steals, and the Mets don’t seem to care much about his horrible average. He should be more widely owned, even if just as a bench piece to protect you from his average and still sneak in some steals.

Trevor Bauer (36%) is up in place of Danny Salazar. More upside than most with that ownership level, though his previous MLB experience reminds us of his downside.

Final warning for Jon Niese (34%): he’s awesome. But I talk about him too much, so now it’s up to you not to forget about him.

Adam Lind (31%) has more pop than most in this ownership level. I’m inclined to think he deserves rostering in about half of fantasy leagues. 

Medium Leagues (20-30% Owned)

James Loney (27%) should be more owned: seriously, .300 averages don’t grow on trees, even without power.

I don’t normally talk about relievers here, but Joaquin Benoit (25%) is really awesome (2.18 ERA, 0.82 WHIP).

Bartolo Colon (23%) hasn’t been nearly as bad as his bloated ERA leads one to believe.

Gerardo Parra and Dayan Viciedo (both 22%) have been passable if you’re in need, but OF continues to be pretty tough on those in medium and deep leagues.

Who before the season would have expected that Tyler Skaggs (21%) would hurt you in strikeouts (just 33 in 51.2 IP) but help in WHIP (1.16)? No one. So go for it if you need the WHIP really bad.

Drew Hutchison (20%) has a nifty WHIP and is striking out a batter per inning.

Deep Leagues (Under 20% Owned)

Another reliever for you: Dellin Betances (16%) has 42 strikeouts in 24.1 IP, so that’s pretty awesome.

Daniel Murphy (14%) is offering steady production and playing often enough to be useful.

Matt Dominguez (12%) has a little power and an average that isn’t as bad as you’d expect. Considering how many third baseman have sustained injuries this year, he ought to be a bit more widely owend.

Rafael Montero (11%) wasn’t bad in his first start, and his prospect-ness means that he’s got more upside than most. And at this depth “wasn’t bad” is pretty much the same as great.

Jake Odorizzi (9%) has control issues and his rate stats warn against trusting him…but he’s whiffing more than a batter per inning, so those searching desperately for K’s may have a use for him as long as the Rays do.

Corey Dickerson (8%) is raking. Anyone hitting that good should be on more teams, even if it’s destined not to last. You don't have to believe in him to ride a hot streak.

Brandon McCarthy (7%) showed up pretty high on the K-BB% list and is pitching better than his ERA would indicate. Of course, it would be helpful if Arizona would win some ballgames….

Lorenzo Cain (5%) is batting .295 in the last month and might be heating up a little. Hey, an empty batting average is better than nothing, right? 

Edwin Jackson (4%) has been pretty hot lately, and has more track record of relative success than most players on the waiver wires of deep leagues.

Barely on the Radar

These aren’t guys to pick up yet…just to keep in mind. Dylan Bundy is rehabbing and could be pitching (in the minors) soon. Stephen Drew is back with the Sox and should be with the team on Wednesday. Unless you’re desperate for help at short, I’d wait to see what his playing time shakes out to be before dropping someone useful to get him. Jason Motte has been activated, so pencil him in as once-and-future-closer-in-waiting, though Trevor Rosenthal will have to stumble big time for Motte to get his old job back..



RotoAuthority Unscripted: Time for a Kershaw Trade

I got a trade offer in the RotoAuthority Silver League and it got me thinking. Hopefully, writing here about said thinking won't ruin my chances of making a trade, but if it doesn't happen, it doesn't happen. The analysis must come first!

See, I was offered Clayton Kershaw, and whenever you're offered Clayton Kershaw you have to think about it.

My first thought was to be disappointed that this wasn't in the MLBTR staff league, 'cause I'm sitting in dead last in most of the pitching categories in that one. My second through however many thoughts were about how cool it would be to have Kershaw on my team.

Then I started to feel sad about the guys I'd give away: Giancarlo Stanton--I believed in you and you've returned 43 RBI for me, almost twice what the next best player on my team has. Scott Kazmir--I believed in you too and you've given me five delightful wins, a truly beautiful 2.39 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. And Greg Holland--I...okay, we all thought Holland would be good, and sure enough he's the only non-terrible reliever on my team.

The initial offer also included a couple guys that I'm probably supposed to be hoping will bounce back or regress to their peripheral stats in Allen Craig and Zach McAllister. (This article isn't about them, though, so I won't tell you I'm not optimistic about Craig and more or less apathetic about McAllister.) Okay, so I'm not clicking "Accept" on the initial offer, but overall, yeah, I'm intrigued with the thought of dealing my best hitter for baseball's best pitcher.

But should I be?

When was the last time you saw Clayton Kershaw sporting a 4.43 ERA? I'm not a Dodger fan, so I don't mind...but it's pretty weird to see, I'll tell you that.

Now, most of that comes from his most recent start, an epic tagging for over 100 runs (actually seven) in less than two innings. Or something bad like that. Manager Don Mattingly reassures us that there's nothing physically wrong with the Dodger ace, and he's probably in a position to know that and tell the truth about it. Right?

When you see any pitcher give up a disaster start like that come so quickly after escaping the DL, you can think one of two things about it:

a) He's fine. Just had to shake off the rust and it didn't happen to go well this time. He'll be okay.

b) Ouch. He's gonna be right back on the DL soon; either that or he'll be pitching bad and through pain for a few weeks.

The manager's taking choice a), and since I sent back a trade offer of Stanton for Kershaw straight-up, I guess I'll give away the ending by admitting that I am too.

But only kind of, obviously. If I were 100% sure that Kershaw was perfectly healthy, I'd have sent back the offer with a somewhat useful throw-in, because Kershaw is definitely a first-round, better-than-everybody-else-in-the-world pitcher, while Stanton's teammates will surely help him regress to the realm of the mortally awesome in terms of Runs and RBI. (Yeah, I don't think he's going to end the year with double David Ortiz's RBI, I just don't.)

So is now the time to trade Clayton Kershaw, or the time to trade for him? (Feel free to expand the thought to a more generally helpful analogy about all such elite pitchers who perform horrifically right after returning from the DL.)

Obviously, it has to be something of a case-by-case situation, but we can look at this case and see if anything applies generally.

One thing it's always good to do is check on a pitcher's velocity, as Fangraphs has done here, in which Kershaw is noted to have lost about two miles per hour on his fastball (in his few starts before the May 2 article), and examined to see what kind of decline might be expected if that reduced velocity is more or less permanent. Good news: that analysis suggests that Kershaw has been equally great in games pitched at what looks like his current velocity as he has when throwing harder. Bad news: a similar velocity drop coincided with Ubaldo Jimenez's precipitous decline, so we can't just assume all pitchers will be fine if they lose a couple miles on their fastball.

It's also worth looking into how a disaster start happens: according to the LA Times, it looks like Kershaw didn't have any control over his curveball during the second inning, in which he served up three triples. So that's bad, but it doesn't send up so many red flags that I'm running scared to rescind my trade offer for Kershaw. Unfortunately, I'm not enough of a scout or a pitching coach to know what to do with such data. Any elucidating ideas are more than welcome in the comments....

Right now, I think it's a good time to target receiving Kershaw in a trade, and I'm inclined to think that's usually the case in a situation like this one. Let him get a really good game in, and his price will go very close to full market value in a hurry. There aren't many times when baseball's best pitcher is likely to come at a discount, and this is one of them.

That said, now is a good time to deal Kershaw away, too.

What?

Yeah. There is some real risk involved in having a pitcher who gets brutally tagged right after coming off the DL, and trading that risk away isn't a terrible idea. Especially when your opponent/trade partner thinks they're getting a good deal. See, the thing about making a trade at this time, is that everyone knows Kershaw has to come at a discount, but that also allows the human mind to persuade itself that it is getting a good deal. It's like going to a store and seeing that everything is on sale: before you even start trying to remember what that stuff cost yesterday, your brain is already processing the idea that you're getting a bargain.

Just because you (probably) can't sell Kershaw for his highest-possible free market value doesn't mean you can't get what you want for him. And getting what you want in a trade makes it a win. We've reached the point of the season where your team situation and your place in the standings of each category is nonrandom. If you're getting killed in the power categories but still doing well in pitching, why not trade Kershaw for Stanton? No, they didn't get drafted in the same round, but who cares about that now? If you've got needs to fill, have Kershaw on your roster, and somehow aren't depending on him to carry your pitching staff, his trade value is still plenty high enough to help your team out in multiple categories.

Right now, it will be easier to get a good deal done than at other times, just because Kershaw will already be on other owners' trade radar. They may be hoping to lowball you, but once they're as intrigued by the chance to get Kershaw as I am, they might just bite on a fair offer. Right after a start like this is a great time to trade for Kershaw, yes...but it's also the right time to trade him away.


Full Story |  Comments (0) | Categories: Injuries | Starters | Trading

Stock Watch: ISOlate your BABIP?

In this week's Stock Watch, we'll examine some hitters with high isolated power numbers you should be interested in, as well as some hitters getting too much of their value from BABIP numbers they probably can't sustain. Also, check out some top-prospect pitchers coming up from the minors....

 Trade For

If you're in the market for an ace, target Stephen Strasburg and his 12.17 K/9. That 3.42 ERA might keep his price down a little in some leagues, but his 2.51 FIP should reassure you that he's awesome. Corey Kluber is an even better target, but you better get your offers in before his 3.48 ERA starts crawling down to match his 2.41 FIP.

Michael Morse (.256 ISO) is killing the ball like the old days...of not that long ago when he was also healthy. Get him before his owners realize they can trust him.

Todd Frazier (.242 ISO) wasn't expected to do too much before the season, and his numbers haven't been flashy...but they have been good, especially at an injury-depleted third base position.

Jonathan Villar (.218 ISO--hey, ISO is this week's theme stat) already has more homers (five) than I expected him to launch all season. Though he started slow and doesn't look like a batting average guy, I'm intrigued by the thought of a high-speed-plus-a-little-power shortstop. If he keeps up the pace and puts up a 15 HR/30 SB season, that would be a high-value player.

Kyle Seager (.214 ISO) started so slow I had to drop him from one team, but his power is climbing back up. His full-season numbers still don't look awesome, which is always a trading bonus.

Trade Away

Jeff Samardzija  is supposed to be a strikeout machine, but 7.23 K/9 looks more like...um...well, like not that. His 1.45 ERA sure is nice, but a 2.92 FIP and 3.51xFIP suggest regression is coming. The lack of strikeouts, the apparently impending regression and the fact that he's got a super-snazzy ERA all make him a good guy to peddle away.

Garrett Richards isn't much of a household name, but he's been pretty productive so far, with a 2.80 ERA and a 2.75 FIP. Why trade him away? Because a look at his 4.0 BB/9 and 0.2 HR/9 tells me that his peripheral numbers are the ones in line for a regression. Beware.

Marlon Byrd is rocking an obscene.424 BABIP. (Okay, I don't know how that's "obscene," except that that'll describe the words fantasy owners have for him when the BABIP comes down.)

Shin-Soo Choo has a .415 BABIP that's leading to a very nice average...but where will the average go when the BABIP does? I'm not saying he's a candidate to crater (like some of these other guys), but his trade value probably won't go much higher than it is now.

Emilio Bonifacio (.394 BABIP) Brett Gardner (.386 BABIP) should be dealt to anyone who needs steals, because it looks like a matter of time before they turn back into one-category players.

Matt Adams was interesting before the season for his power, but he's got only two homers and his . 375 BABIP is all that's sustaining him as a fantasy player right now.

Pick Up*

*Percentages are Yahoo! league ownership rates.

Shallow Leagues

Alcides Escobar (44%) has earned his forgiveness for 2013. Pick him up.

Derek Norris (34%) is a catcher and he's raking. In the revolving-door life of two-catcher leagues, that's all that matters.

Jon Niese (41%) was once good. Then he was bad because he was injured. Now he's pitching great. Hmm...

How many more times should I recommend picking up Josh Beckett (30%)? Good ERA, check. Good WHIP, check. Good chance for wins on a good team, check. Striking out a batter per inning, check.  

Medium Leagues

Adam Lind (29%) is back from injury and an above-average power source.

Gregory Polanco (28%) is killing the ball in the minors. Maybe only 28% of leagues have room to stash a minor leaguer that's probably coming up just after the super-two cutoff...but I think it's more than that.

James Loney (27%) is what he is: a safe batting average first baseman. Given the number of Mark Reynoldses in the world, a guy like Loney has more value than this just because he's different.

Dustin Ackley (21%) has been hitting pretty well for the last couple weeks. As a lifelong Mariners fan, no, I don't believe he'll keep it up. As a semi-objective observer, I'm willing to take a chance on a guy who's eligible in the infield and outfield and riding a hot streak.

Deep Leagues

I talked about Drew Pomeranz (18%) yesterday. Pick him up.

Mike Zunino (15%) is on a hot streak, catches, and was a pretty good prospect. Mariner or not, that's probably worth more than 15% ownership.

A.J. Pollock (15%) is someone I've been ignoring for a while, but he's hitting the ball and seems to do a little of everything.

Kevin Gausman (12%) is scheduled to come up for Baltimore, while Rafael Montero (12%) is joining the Mets' rotation. Both are worthy prospects and ought to be added in a lot of formats.

Carlos Quentin (7%) is coming off the DL. The reason one rarely drafts Quentin is because he's always hurt, not because he can't hit. I can't say how long The Big Q (okay, I made that nickname up) will be in the lineup, but he's worth adding while he's here. 



RotoAuthority League Update: Blockbuster Week

The RotoAuthority League is a highly competitive 12-team fantasy baseball league run by Tim Dierkes. The settings consist of standard 5 X 5 Rotisserie scoring and 23-man lineups along with 4 bench spots. In an effort to keep owners interested as well as to infuse new blood into the league, the teams that finish below 8th place are kicked out of the league each year. The author of this column just hopes he isn't one of them.

Just about all of the trades covered last week were one-for-one deals. This past week, however, we witnessed several trades featuring multiple players on each side of the transaction. In general, I prefer to make moves that are smaller in size, as it's simply easier to analyze the categorical effects on my roster. Moreover, the greater the scope of a deal, the increased chance of highway robbery. Then again, I guess that's not a bad thing, assuming you're the one committing grand larceny. Let's take a look at the big deals from this past week.

05/05 - Men With Wood agrees to trade Ryan Zimmerman and Corey Dickerson to the Bombers for Everth Cabrera and Eric Young

The Bombers currently lead the league in the SB category, so they could afford to ship Cabrera and Young out of town. Before checking the full standings, I assumed Men With Wood must have had a need for speed; however, the former champion actually lies in third place in that category right now. Accordingly, this may have been a value-based move for Men With Wood, at least to a certain extent. Although Dickerson had a big day at the plate on Saturday, he still doesn't crack the lineup everyday. In effect, this trade will ultimately come down to the return date for Zimmerman. Overall then, the Bombers are gambling on Zimmerman's health while dealing from a surplus of speed.

05/07 - Pulling Brzenk agrees to trade Justin Verlander, Ervin Santana, and Joe Smith to Brewsterville Bruins for Alex Cobb and LaTroy Hawkins

As I mentioned, the more players included in a deal, the greater the possibility that the trade swings more and more in one direction. Well, for my money this was a great move by the Brewsterville Bruins. I have a ton of respect for Pulling Brzenk; after all, he won the league last year and is currently in second place. Clearly this owner is doing something right. Moreover, I'm very bullish on Cobb; in fact, I've made an effort to acquire him in all my leagues while he's on the DL. I also understand that you have to overpay to acquire a closer via trade in the RotoAuthority League; that's just how the market has been set.

Concessions aside, however, I still think the Bruins did very well here. I know Verlander's early skills are worrisome, but he's still viewed as a no-doubt ace on the fantasy marketplace. Santana, though, may be the true prize of this haul. The move to the NL has done wonders for the verteran right-hander, as his skills thus far have been electric. If we break this deal down, I think it's safe to say that Santana is at worst equivalent in value to Cobb, especially given that the Rays right-hander will still be out a couple more weeks.

That leaves a swap of Hawkins for Verlander and Smith. I'm sorry, but that just doesn't pass the smell test to me. If Hawkins were an elite closer, I think you could justify the move for Pulling Brzenk; however, the Rockies closer is actually harmful in the strikeout category, as he's currently fanning just 10% of batters. Smith picked up a save on Saturday and still may be the closer for the Angels. Even if we assume Frieri usurps the role eventually, Smith still has to rank as one of the most valuable middle relievers going forward. After desconstructing this deal then, the Bruins practically acquired Verlander for free.

05/09 - Smell the Glove agree to trade Jonathan Lucroy and David Robertson to Pulling Brzenk for Matt Wieters, Daniel Murphy, and Nathan Eovaldi

Another trade, another closer acquisition for Pulling Brzenk. Given that Wieters was placed on the DL yesterday, you might have a slight preference for the Lucroy over the Orioles backstop. Overall, though, I think Lucroy and Wieters are virtually interchangeable commodities when healthy. As I mentioned last week, I'm a fan of Robertson and feel he has what it takes to be a borderline-elite closer. Still, I think Commissioner Dierkes did well here in acquiring Murphy and Eovaldi. At this point Murphy has established himself as a solid middle infield option who contributes a little bit across the board. Eovaldi, though, looks like the hidden gem here. He's always thrown hard, but now the results are catching up to the stuff. The early skills are truly elite: he currently ranks seventh in the game in SIERA. In a pitcher-friendly park, Eovaldi should be able to put together a solid season. Ultimately then, I prefer this deal in a vacuum for the Commish assuming Wieters isn't out too long, but Pulling Brzenk did well given league context.



Stock Watch: April Fails

Last week we made some trade suggestions for some of April's best players, with the promise that we'd be back for suggestions about some of April's worst. Enjoy.* Also included free of charge are some waiver wire suggestions that the last article was so sadly missing.

*Please enjoy these suggestions responsibly. Just because Jedd Gyorko is a "Trade For" this week and Justin Upton was a "Trade Away" last week does not mean I recommend a straight-up swap....

Trade For

I'd offer a trade for Jedd Gyorko. Why? Because guys who play second and third and have a 20-homer season under their belt don't grow on trees. Also, because he's been so thoroughly awful that he can't possibly cost much. If he does, don't pull the trigger.

Prince Fielder hasn't shown any power at all, and that does worry me a little, but his history has earned him plenty of benefit of the doubt. What's more, he's also got a giant walk rate and a tiny BABIP, which tells me that he should turn things around in the contact and on-base departments. Could be a bargain if his owner is frustrated.

Billy Butler isn't returning to his 2012 power ways, but he's typically managed much better BABIP's than his current .282 mark, and I'd expect his average to climb eventually.

Mike Moustakas is on the rise, I tell you! Maybe not, but it does seem like the worst of the season might have ended with the first couple weeks.

Elvis Andrus has nine steals and a .250 BABIP. That average will come up and he'll be a speed-star again.

Brian McCann has a .225 BABIP dragging down his .229 average. You have to think both numbers will go up as the weather heats up and his sample size increases.

David Wright doesn't have any positive indicators at this point: a .330 BABIP and a 5.6% walk rate are very bad under-the-hood stats. But this is David Wright we're talking about, and players of his caliber shouldn't be tossed aside after a month of bad play--even if that month is backed up by the peripherals. Bet on him to go back to normal.

Adam Jones has actually been worse than Wright, but like him, has earned our trust with years of good play. If you can pry either from a frustrated owner, go for it.

Ian Desmond is a shortstop with power. The strikeouts are bad, the average is bad, I know. But seriously, he's a shortstop with power. How many of those are there?

Danny Salazar was one of the most-hyped players on draft day, and now where is he? Rocking a 5.93 ERA. So trade for him, because he's got a 10.98 K/9, a .395 BABIP, and a 3.55 xFIP. He ought to straighten things out.

Homer Bailey deserves a trade offer...unless you play in Mark's fantasy league. And check out his in-depth analysis if you didn't see it already.

Phil Hughes has a 1.93 BB/9 and an 8.36 K/9, to go with a .353 BABIP. No wonder his FIP of 3.41 and xFIP of 3.72 are beating his current ERA.

CC Sabathia has a 5.11 ERA...and a 2.79 xFIP. 2.79! With a strikeout rate over 9.00 and a walk rate under 2.00, no wonder. I suspect it won't be long before people are talking about CC's resurgence, so get some trade offers in while you still can.

David Price looked like a dangerous guy to own coming into the year, but his 10.17 K/9 and 0.92 BB/9 suggest that this should have been one of the best months of his career--and not one that ended with a 4.44 ERA. His FIP is 3.37 and xFIP is 2.58. A trade target for anyone who needs pitching.

John Lackey came back from the dead last year and, while his 3.83 ERA isn't horrible, his peripherals suggest he could be doing even better: 3.40 FIP and 3.19 xFIP. Feel safe making trade offers for him.

Sell Low If You Still Can

Brandon Phillips may not be sellable at this point, but it's worth a shot. Cincinnati was shopping him for a reason, and it wasn't just his personality.

Curtis Granderson really doesn't have much going for him at this point. Presumably, he'll improve on that .200 BABIP, but will it be enough? I doubt it.

Pablo Sandoval seems to think that his production is worth $100 million. Hopefully he's playing in your fantasy league, because I'd be willing to sell for somewhat less. Sandoval's really not getting much done.

Jean Segura has a walk rate of just 1.9%. You don't get to be a useful leadoff man with that kind of number. Deal him while his name still has value.

Domonic Brown wasn't someone it was easy feel sure about endorsing or writing off before the season, so most of us writers hedged our bets and took a middle position. He might well bounce back, but I wouldn't use a roster spot on waiting, because he might not.

B.J. Upton has stolen a few bases, which is cool, but hitting-wise, he looks done. It's not good when a .294 BABIP leads to just a .214 average.                                                                                

Nick Swisher has always been one of my guys: underrated and dependable, but it looks like our time together might be through. Like Upton, his .214 average isn't coming from a BABIP that smacks of terrible and soon-to-reverse luck--it's a pretty normal .278. Sorry Swish....

Ubaldo Jimenez is someone you probably already dropped, but if you haven't, I'd probably try squeezing him into a trade offer if the other owner needs strikeouts. It's been pretty ugly, and none of the signs point to a coming improvement.

R.A. Dickey seems like he's lost that knuckleball magic, which is really a shame, 'cause it was cool. I'd try passing him along to someone who needs to take a big risk.

Matt Cain was supposed to have remembered how to keep the ball in the park...but his HR/FB rate has only gotten worse this month. I was very bullish on him going into the season, and I'm not truly ready to give up--but I would deal him away for a decent offer, and each homer allowed makes me more pessimistic.

Hiroki Kuroda was once the model of consistent good-but-not-greatness, the guy you could always count on. His ERA will come down, but the lowered strikeout rates don't cut it anymore in most leagues.

Shallow Leagues

Dillon Gee (36%), Jose Quintana (34%), and Bartolo Colon (33%) haven't set the world on fire, but all ought to be useful going forward. Quintana offers more strikeouts, but the Mets on either side of him ought to benefit more in ERA from their home park.

Why not own Adam Dunn (41%)? We all owned Mark Trumbo when he was doing exactly the same thing before getting hurt. Except with a much worse average. Pick Dunn up and hang on to him until his average craters. If it doesn't, you'll get a ton of value. If it does, just enjoy the homers while you can.

Jonathan Villar (41%) has six steals and bad-but-not-vortex-of-suck batting average. That's all we were asking for before the season, and it ought to be valuable enough at short and MI.

Marcell Ozuna (35%) is hitting pretty well and ought to move up the ownership charts. He might be the most likely of this group to keep the production up all year.

Alcides Escobar (33%), like Villar, isn't hitting that bad, and has a respectable number of steals. There's no excuse not to pick one of them up if you need stolen bases.

Medium Leagues

Drew Smyly (29%) hasn't really gotten a chance to prove himself or fail in the starter experiment, but as we move into May, there should be fewer opportunities to skip his spot in the rotation. Let's see what he's got.

Tyler Skaggs (27%) may or may not keep this up all year, but there's no reason not to try enjoying it while you can.

Josh Beckett (25%) had another good start, from a K:BB perspective--8:1 last time out. It's time to let bygones be bygones and roster him.

Colby Rasmus (24%) has a bunch of homers to go with his sub-Mendoza average. I imagine some BABIP luck correction will push the average up into the almost-playable range--which will work well enough if he keeps hitting with this much power.

Deep Leagues

Drew Hutchison (18%) is off to a nifty start, despite being totally unheralded coming into the year.

Colby Lewis (3%) has nearly a strikeout per inning. He's got a lot more upside than a lot of pitchers more widely owned than him.

Mark Reynolds (12%) is a cheap power source, but you won't like what he does to your average. If I'm gonna recommend Dunn and Rasmus, though, I'd better do the same for Reynolds, especially in leagues that can play him at third.

Garrett Jones (11%) has been kind of an all-around producer so far. It probably won't last, but we take what we can get in deep leagues.

Welington Castillo (5%) is smacking the ball with some authority. And he's a catcher. Always a pleasant combination.


Full Story |  Comments (0) | Categories: Stock Watch | Trading



Site Map     Contact     About     Advertise     Privacy Policy     MLB Trade Rumors     Rss Feed