Toronto Blue Jays

Position/Role Battles: The Blue Jays' Left Fielder

As with any Blue Jays-related speculation, there is a threat that Alex Anthopoulos will pull off another of his signature out-of-nowhere blockbuster trades five minutes after this piece is posted, making the whole thing moot.  However, the Jays have seemingly enough outfield depth that (knock on wood) it's safe to presume that the club will choose from its present crop of outfielders to fill its left field gap.  Jose Bautista and Colby Rasmus are safely locked into the right and center field jobs in 2012, so the Jays are left with at least four outfielders battling for playing time next season.  Let's break down the candidates...

The Favorites

Travis Snider: The Blue Jays have kept the former first-round draft pick on a pretty short leash since his debut late in the 2008 campaign.  Snider has been Toronto's Opening Day left fielder in each of the last three seasons, but was sent down in 2009 after a batting slump, suffered a wrist injury in 2010 that sidelined him for two months and was sent down again in 2011 after another slow start, not to mention a late-season bout with wrist tendinitis. 

There have been whispers that the Jays are becoming frustrated with Snider, who reportedly retooled his swing during his 2011 demotion but still struggled (a .682 OPS in 103 plate appearances) after being recalled in July.  Snider's defenders have countered that the constant yo-yoing between Toronto and Triple-A isn't doing Snider any favors for getting himself adjusted to Major League pitching.  

While the Jays are no doubt a little worried that Snider is no closer to proving himself as a legitimate everyday player today than he was when he debuted in 2008, it's unlikely the team is anywhere close to giving up on him.  Snider will celebrate his 24th birthday next month, so he's far from the age where you could attach the 'bust' label to him.        

Snider is an intriguing late-round pickup for your fantasy draft.  You can stash him on your team's bench through Snider's seemingly traditional April slump, then perhaps reap the benefits if he turns things on in May.  Or, perhaps 2012 will be the season when Snider breaks out, giving both the Blue Jays (and your fantasy team) a nice offensive boost.  Be warned, however -- Snider still has an option remaining, so another stint in Triple-A wouldn't be a surprise.  If you've had Snider in a keeper league for years and are losing patience, wait at least a couple of months into 2012 before exploring a trade or a sell-off.

Eric Thames: After four paragraphs discusing Snider, let's focus on the player who, according to Anthopoulos during a recent interview on TheFan590 radio, "right now...would have the leg up" on the starting left field job.  Thames hit .262/.313/.456 in 394 plate appearances last year and established himself as Toronto's everyday left fielder over the last two months of the season.  It was a nice first impression for Thames, a rather unheralded seventh-round pick in the 2008 draft who quickly rose through the Jays' minor league system, including a 1.033 OPS at Triple-A Las Vegas in 2011 that earned him his call-up.

So is this a case where the hyped prospect (Snider) is overtaken by the underdog rookie (Thames)?  Not exactly.  Thames struggled in September as pitchers began to adjust to him.  While the rule of thumb for defensive stats is you need three years of data to make a firm judgement, Thames looked overmatched in the field last year and posted an overall -15.9 UZR/150 in left and right field.  There's certainly no reason Thames can't improve to "below-average" than his current "butcher" status, but it seems as if Thames' future as Major Leaguer might be as a DH.  Snider's superior fielding (a career 3.1 UZR/150 as an outfielder, though admittedly this is another small sample size) could end up being the factor that ultimately sends Thames to the bench.

If you're a Thames owner, you're not out of luck.  Thames could very well find himself some at-bats at DH after all, occasionally spelling the right-handed hitting Edwin Encarnacion when the Jays face a tough righty starter.  Thames' fortunes could also be tied to those of Adam Lind.  The Jays will give Lind a lot of rope in 2012 but if he posts another sub-.300 OBP, you could see Thames get some time at DH and Encarnacion would get a lot of playing time at first base.   

The Backup Options

Snider and Thames are both left-handed batters, leaving room for the right-handed Rajai Davis and Ben Francisco to snatch a few starts when a lefty starter is on the mound.  It seems likely that only one player will be needed for the backup outfield job, so let's look at what Davis and Francisco bring to the table.

Davis: Speed and lots of it.  Davis has 177 career steals (out of respectable 226 attempts) and is a valuable pinch-running asset on a Toronto club that doesn't have many viable base-running threats.  Davis has played all three outfield positions in his career and while he's not a great defender, he is at least capable of filling it anywhere in the outfield if needed.  Davis's career splits reveal an .829 OPS against lefties and a .551 OPS against righties.

Francisco: Acquired by the Jays in December from a trade with the Phillies, Francisco's career splits are quite even, though he's had far more plate appearances against righty pitching --- a .759 OPS in 1034 PAs against right-handers and a .768 OPS in 480 PAs against southpaws.  By this measure, Francisco is a more balanced pinch-hit threat, able to come off the bench no matter who is on the mound.  Like Davis, Francisco has experience everywhere in the outfield and provides little defensive value.

Davis' speed gives him both the edge over Francisco for a roster spot and also his fantasy value.  If Snider/Thames are injured or struggle enough that a platoon is required, Davis will get the call against lefties and provide your fantasy squad with some cheap steals and (in Toronto's solid lineup) some runs.  Davis' fantasy value could actually increase if he loses the battle with Francisco; the Jays might be inclined to trade or DFA Davis, and the speedster could become a regular elsewhere.  Keep on eye on Davis' status since he is worth a bench spot in an AL-only league. 

The Wild Cards

Edwin Encarnacion in left?  Kelly Johnson in left?  Either scenario could happen in 2012.  Encarnacion has been playing some outfield in the Dominican winter league, and if he can at least hold his own in left, his right-handed bat could play well in a platoon with Snider or Thames.  This said, Encarnacion is an infamously poor defender and teaching him to play the outfield for the first time in his Major League career seems counter-productive.  Encarnacion has a career .868 OPS as a designated hitter, which indicates that if freed from the burden of worrying about fielding, he is a much more valuable asset to a lineup. 

Johnson, likewise, hasn't played left since his rookie season with the Braves in 2005 and his bat plays much better at second base than it does in a corner outfield slot.  I see Johnson playing no more than a handful (if any) of appearances in left next season, and the Encarnacion experiment could be ended quickly before he ends up known as "E7."  For fantasy owners, though, a few games out-of-position wouldn't be a bad thing.  If your league only requires a few games for a player to qualify at a new position, you might find yourself with a bit more roster flexibility should either player get a few looks in left.

Fantasy Breakdown

The winner of the Snider/Thames battle is worth a bench spot in a standard mixed league.  The fluid situation at 1B/DH between Lind and Encarnacion also means that the loser of the battle could still find playing time, but probably not enough to justify keeping him on your fantasy roster.  Keep an eye to see how Snider and Thames perform in Spring Training and hope one player clearly steps up, as otherwise the secretive Jays might not name the starter until Opening Day itself, leaving you basically flipping a coin during your draft.

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A Look At Brandon Morrow

Brandon Morrow is one of the more intriguing starters for 2011 fantasy drafts.  Let's take an in-depth look at the 26-year-old righty.

The Pros

• Among those with at least 100 innings pitched, Morrow ranked first in baseball by a longshot with a 10.95 K/9.  Tim Lincecum was next at 9.79.  Morrow struck out eight or more hitters in half his starts, including a 17-K gem.  If he reaches 200 innings, he could whiff 240.
• Morrow is difficult to hit, with 7.8 per nine allowed in his career.  He posted a .348 BABIP this year (almost certain to come down) but still allowed only 8.4 hits per nine because batters put so few balls in play against him.
• He's a former first-round pick who was jerked around before being traded to the Blue Jays, so he might now just be settling in.
• His average fastball velocity was a solid 93.4 this year. 
• Morrow's ERA was 4.49, but his SIERA was 3.15.  The casual fantasy player may not realize that he's in line for a much lower ERA even if his skills remain the same.

The Cons

• Due to injuries and time spent as a reliever, Morrow has never topped this year's 146.3 innings in a pro season.
• He's inefficient.  Morrow's 17.2 pitches per inning figure this year was the 10th-worst in baseball among those with 100 innings.  He averaged 5.63 innings per start, which could limit wins.
• I expect his WHIP to come down from 1.38 because of even fewer hits allowed.  But his 4.1 BB/9 was a career-best, and that's still a WHIP-damaging control rate.  Silver lining using arbitrary endpoints: his BB/9 was 3.0 over 14 starts made in June, July, and August.
• He pitches in the AL East.

In trying to predict where Morrow might be drafted, Clayton Kershaw is a decent comparable.  He too was coming off a low-inning, high walk campaign, and he was drafted in the eighth round before this season.  On the flip side he didn't come with injury or American League concerns and he's really tough to hit.  Jonathan Sanchez is also similar, and he was drafted in the 19th.  I'm thinking rounds 13-15 for Morrow in 2011.  It's a solid gamble.

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Experts Predict Jose Bautista's 2011 Home Run Total

Yesterday Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLB Trade Rumors dove into Jose Bautista's impending raise with the help of an arbitration expert.  The article was fascinating, but fantasy baseball players are more concerned with how much of Bautista's 54 home run performance will carry over in 2011.  I assembled a panel of legendary journalists and asked them to predict his home run total for next year.  Their answers:

• Jerry Crasnick of ESPN: 36
• Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated: 35
• Jordan Bastian of MLB.com: 35
• Jeff Passan of Yahoo: 34
• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs: 34
• Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports: 33
• Buster Olney of ESPN: 31
• Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports: 29
• Peter Gammons of MLB Network: 29
• Ken Davidoff of Newsday: 27

That comes to an average of 32.3 home runs for Bautista next year, with a range of nine between the highest and lowest predictions.  Fantasy players will likely view Bautista as a third baseman rather than an outfielder. 

I can't help but wonder if Bautista will be next year's Mark Reynolds.  Not because I expect him to follow up his huge year with a .198 average and 211 strikeouts, but because like Reynolds, Bautista may be drafted inside the first three rounds in March of 2011 and that's probably too early.  Reynolds was actually drafted 20th on average before the 2010 season.  Be sure to exercise caution on Bautista in fantasy drafts, with a panel of ten experts predicting a dropoff of more than 20 home runs.  His RBI total will come down as well.

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J.P. Arencibia Examined

Unfortunately it's probably too late to pick up Blue Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia, who homered twice in his Saturday big league debut.  The 24-year-old's power shouldn't come as a surprise - he hit .303/.360/.639 with 32 home runs in 420 Triple A plate appearances this year.

Keep in mind that Arencibia is more of a 2011 target, aside from the next nine Jays games.  MLB.com's Jordan Bastian wrote today that All-Star catcher John Buck is on track for an August 20th return, at which point Arencibia will go back to Triple A.  I imagine Arencibia will be back again on September 1st.  However, keep in mind that the Blue Jays want Buck to achieve Type B free agent status, so they're unlikely to sit him an extraordinary amount in September.

Arencibia profiles as next year's Mike Napoli, hopefully without the playing time issues.  I see him smacking 20+ home runs but with a batting average potentially south of .260.  Even after his '08 season Napoli was drafted in the 14th round on average, so you should be able to get Arencibia in that range next year.  Another comparison: after the '07 season, Geovany Soto was going in the 16th round.

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Closer Report: Blue Jays

The Blue Jays currently have a three-man competition at closer, with Kevin Gregg, Jason Frasor, and Scott Downs duking it out.  Gregg is a recent free agent signee, while Frasor and Downs are entering their walk years and are trade candidates.  Since all three pitchers are being drafted in the 26th round or later, Toronto presents a nice fantasy opportunity if you pick right.

Right now all we know is that Gregg signed in part because he'll get a shot at closing, and manager Cito Gaston will make the decision (MLB.com's Jordan Bastian reporting).  According to Mock Draft Central, fantasy owners are currently voting for Downs (311.73), Frasor (323.34), and Gregg (327.29) in that order.

There is reason to believe Downs won't be the guy.  The Toronto Star's Richard Griffin notes that Downs is not the lights-out type for the ninth inning.  That's understandable; Downs is a southpaw who averages about 90 mph on his heater.  Frasor throws harder and he's right-handed.  Downs and Frasor both had better peripherals than Gregg in 2009, though they lack his closing experience.  Of the three, only Downs had a strong groundball rate.

So while you could make a case for any of the three, I'd be surprised to see Downs get the nod with two capable righties also in the mix.  If you're drafting now, take Gregg.  Unlike Frasor, Gregg's not a spring trade candidate.  And I'm guessing Gaston will choose the experienced closer even if Frasor stays.

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David Purcey Being Overlooked?

Blue Jays starter David Purcey was not drafted in most mixed leagues this year.  He was on my radar on draft day but completely slipped my mind. Fortunately, I was able to grab him in a bunch of leagues yesterday after his 7 IP, 2 ER performance against the Tigers.  What's Purcey's outlook for '09?

Projections for Purcey suggest nothing special...ERA under 5.00 with a decent K rate, that's it.  But let's take a closer look.

Purcey, a southpaw, will turn 27 in April.  His Triple A numbers last year: 117 innings, 2.69 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9. His Major League numbers in '08: 5.54 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9.  Who's to say he can't find the good control he showed at Triple A?  Purcey seems like a guy who can, at the least, give you some cheap Ks.  Baseball Prospectus likens Purcey to Bruce Hurst circa 1985, which is a good thing.

Back in February David Golebiewski profiled Purcey for FanGraphs and liked what he saw as well.

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A Look At Travis Snider

Today let's take a look at Blue Jays outfielder Travis Snider.

Snider was drafted 14th overall out of high school in 2006.  He ascended very quickly, starting 2008 in High A ball and making it to the Majors.  Only 20 years old, he hit .301/.338/.466 in 80 big league plate appearances.

More importantly than his brief Major League stint, let's look at Snider's Major League Equivalent.  This is a translation of his minor league work in Major League terms.  That line: .277/.358/.485.  23 HR in 480 ABs.  In a way, that's what we might've expected if he spent all of 2008 in the bigs.  Would've been a phenomenal rookie season for a kid so young.

Scouting-wise, Baseball America loves Snider.  They say he has the tools to hit for average and power, but has below-average speed. 

Much like Jay Bruce in 2008, Snider's '09 opportunity is in question.  At present, the Jays are undecided at left field and DH.  However, they could sign a DH-type and continue trying Adam Lind in left.  Assuming Lyle Overbay stays, Snider could be in line for more Triple A seasoning (he's only had 18 games at the level, and keeping him there for a few months could delay free agency by a year).

Last spring Bruce was drafted in the 27th round on average, so in a 12-team mixed league you could've waited til the reserve round or picked him up midseason.  It figures to be a similar situation for Snider, and he's not the double-digit steal threat Bruce was.  Snider is certainly a top keeper, a guy who could hit .300 with 30 HR in 2010.  But for '09, he seems like more of a 20 HR type with playing time questions.  Worth a flier, nothing more in non-keeper leagues.

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