Strikeouts

2013 Position Rankings: Starting Pitchers 1-40

You've waited a long time for these (two whole days!), so I'll keep the intro short. Starting pitching is deep again this year, so expect more from your staff. Don't go accepting WHIP's of 1.30, or K/9 rates of 6.8% if you don't have to. Whether you believe in piling on starters early, or waiting for the sake of your offense, there's plenty of good pitching to fill in mixed league staffs. It's getting great pitching that's the trick. The very best will give you all four categories in spades, all for a low level of risk. Yeah, not so many guys fit that bill.

Monday featured the pitchers ranked 41-80, not to mention a hoard of deep-league fill-ins. Before that, we ranked the Relievers and all the hitters Shortstops, Third Basemen, Second Basemen, First Basemen, Catchers, and  Outfielders. Today's rankings come from a team discussion, featuring Tim Dierkes and the entire RotoAuthority staff. As always, they're divided into groups of similar value, and tiered by where they deserve to be drafted in a standard league. If you're bidding in an auction, consider players in the same tier to be of similar price.

Different leagues will take starters at different paces, and slight variations in scoring systems can completely change the value of pitchers relative to position players. Because of this, the round labels on these tiers are a looser guideline than for other positions.

1st Round

1. Stephen Strasburg, WAS

I've said before that Strasburg is the top pitcher, and the only one to belong in the first round--I'm certainly not going back on it now. He gives you Wins, ERA, and WHIP to equal anyone else in baseball, and piles on the strikeouts. If I'm choosing between him and a broken down OF, I know who to take.

2nd Round

2. Justin Verlander, DET
3. Clayton Kershaw, LAD

Just as Strasburg is alone in the first, no one belongs with this pair in the second. Verlander's longer track record gives him the slightest of edges in my book. If you disagree, that's fine, because either is a great choice.

3rd-4th Rounds

4. Cole Hamels, PHI
5. Felix Hernandez, SEA
6. Cliff Lee, PHI
7. R.A. Dickey, TOR
8. David Price, TBR
9. CC Sabathia, NYY
10. Adam Wainwright, STL

Hamels does everything, just like the top three...but he does just a little less. Also, the Phillies don't have the offense they used to. With a better lineup, you could take Hernandez with Verlander and Kershaw, easily. Lee's age worries some, but I'm all about that 7.39 K/BB rate. Knuckleballers scare people, and so does anything they didn't see coming, so this ranking for Dickey is bold. I figure he can regress a lot and still be a top-flight pitcher, enjoying the run support in Toronto. Price is a great pitcher and a rising star, but he did overperform his FIP by almost half a run (0.49, actually); it's not that I'm down on him, just that my expectations are a little tempered. So far, Sabathia has been on schedule, which means he'll just keep dominating for a New York team that will find some way to get him run support. Keep an eye on his health, though. Speaking of health, Wainwright seems to have it back, which means he's one of baseball's best again.

Rounds 5-6

11. Gio Gonzalez, WAS
12. Madison Bumgarner, SFG
13. Max Scherzer, DET
14. Yu Darvish, TEX
15. Matt Cain, SFG
16. Mat Latos, CIN
17. Zack Greinke, LAD
18. Yovani Gallardo, MIL
19. James Shields

Gonzalez has a PED investigation hanging over his head, but the walks are a bigger cloud for me. Bumgarner fizzled a little at the end of the year, but his overall trend is still sky-high. Scherzer and Darvish are like Strasburg with the strikeouts, but like Monday's pitchers for WHIP. We all believe that Cain's actual performance beats his advanced metrics...but he still doesn't get enough strikeouts to be fully elite. Latos improved considerably after an abysmal start, and he gets to pitch in front of a great lineup. Health issues loom over Greinke's status, but his talent should flourish in his NL return and a pitcher's park. Gallardo more than makes up for his walks with all those strikeouts. Shields will miss the run and park support he had in Tampa Bay.

7th-8th Rounds

20. Chris Sale, CHW
21. Johnny Cueto, CIN
22. Jered Weaver, LAA
23. Roy Halladay, PHI
24. Kris Medlen, ATL
25. Ian Kennedy, ARI
26. Aroldis Chapman, CIN
27. Jordan Zimmermann, WAS
28. Jake Peavy, CHW
29. Jeff Samardzija, CHC
30. Matt Moore, TBR 

Sale slowed down over the course of the season, and will be expected to pitch even more innings next year--there is considerable downside here to go with his great potential. Cueto doesn't miss enough bats to be an ace, but he's a very good pitcher on a very good team. Though he has the reputation of being more, so is Weaver. That sub 7.00 K/9 doesn't hold up very well unless you win 20 games and outperform your FIP by nearly a run. I would have put Halladay up a lot higher, but his springtime troubles make me worry about lingering injury or imminent decline. Medlen's amazing third of a season has people excited for good reason. A little too excited, but still, he's very worth owning. Kennedy's ERA was higher than I'd like last year, but his peripherals still looked good; I anticipate a rebound. Chapman might be returning to the bullpen, but this is where I'd take the chance if he does start. Zimmermann is a quietly high-quality starter. Peavy proved his critics wrong (and had me kicking myself for not taking him when I had the chance) last year, but his fragility still hurts his value. Samardzija proved to be a strikeout wizard. Another season like that and he'll join the near-elite. Moore could make a big jump, and that potential is part of his price tag. Fortunately, he's already quite good.

Rounds 9-10

31. Josh Johnson, TOR
32. Jon Niese, NYM
33. Homer Bailey, CIN
34. A.J. Burnett, PIT
35. Tim Lincecum, SFG
36. Anibal Sanchez, DET
37. Marco Estrada, MIL
38. Doug Fister, DET
39. Brandon Morrow, TOR
40. Lance Lynn, STL

To me, there's a pretty big jump between the pitchers in Rounds 7-8, and those in 9-10. Johnson had an uncharacteristic 2012: he was healthy and non-elite. If he stays healthy, and returns to form, than he's a top ten pitcher in Toronto. If he stays healthy and stays the same, he's still a very good pitcher to have. If he stays healthy. Niese has gone two years in a row striking out over three times as many batters as he walks. Maybe it's time for him to go from "quietly good" to regular good. Bailey has been around forever, but he only just put together his first full season. It was really good though. Speaking of really good, Burnett was too, making him the Pirates' highest-ranked fantasy pitcher in...maybe ever. His K/9 was back where it belongs, and his K/BB was his highest since 2008. Lincecum was not good, but you can't write his whole career off. Even a partial return to form would mean big value here. Sanchez didn't adjust to the AL immediately, but a whole season pitching in front of the Detroit offense should agree with him. Estrada has become a trendy pick for good reason, but I have to remind myself that he doesn't exactly have much track record. Fister's strikeouts (or lack thereof) always made me wary of him, but he kept 'em up in Detroit. He'll have to with that infield. I'm not nearly as intrigued by Morrow's suddenly-great ERA as I am worried about his fallen strikeout rate. I had thought that Lynn was just a flash-in-the-pan, and his lousy August pretty much confirmed that...but then he was good again in September. I don't know exactly what he is, other than a guy who struck out more than a batter per inning last year.

You already know the end of this story, and you know how and when to draft pitchers in various types of leagues, so I'll finish off this series with a simple reminder: there are a lot of good pitchers out there. There aren't very many great ones. 

---

2013 Position Rankings: Starting Pitchers 41-80

There are rules for drafting starters, or spending on them in an auction. They've accumulated over time, and they involve spending only so much, or only so many high picks on the position. Those are fine rules, and I'm not here to knock them over. Your leaguemates might, though, and if they do, you'll have to choose: go with the flow...or against it. I've had both strategies work out. And fail. It's for this reason that you should consider the recommended rounds to be much more fluid at this position than in others. Every draft will take its own course.

Pitchers are volatile commodities, and even the best ones can't be fully trusted. How many of us took Roy Halladay early last year and thought we couldn't be safer? New opportunities show up throughout the year, in the form of top prospects and out-of-nowhere surprises. Marco Estrada and Wade Miley probably helped a lot of us to championships. So, don't be afraid to wait a little on starters during the draft: the conventional wisdom is there for a reason. (Now, I know I must be getting old.)

Last week, we ranked the Relievers and finished all the hitters:  Shortstops, Third Basemen, Second Basemen, First Basemen, Catchers, and  Outfielders. Today's rankings come from a team discussion, featuring Tim Dierkes and the entire RotoAuthority staff. As always, they're divided into groups of similar value, and tiered by where they deserve to be drafted in a standard league. If you're bidding in an auction, consider players in the same tier to be of similar price.We start in the middle, with number 41, and continue to number 80. After that, you're drafting to fill various needs, so we highlight the strengths and potentials of unranked starters. 

What about the top 40 starters? You'll have to wait, but only two more days--the climax of our rankings series comes out on Wednesday. 

Rounds 11-12

41. Mike Minor, ATL
42. Andy Pettitte, NYY
43. Hiroki Kuroda, NYY
44. Dan Haren, WAS
45. Wade Miley, ARI
46. C.J. Wilson, LAA
47. Jon Lester, BOS
48. Ryan Vogelsong, SFG

It's mid-draft and you've probably got your top two starters, maybe your top three. The elite pitchers are gone and you're left to choose from a mix of good and steady ones, and ones with higher risk and reward. Minor fits in the second category, but given the way he improved over the course of last season, I'd say he's heavier on the "reward" side of things. Ditto for Pettitte, who just pitched his first spring outing and could be a high-quality pitcher with extra help in wins. Kuroda's strikeouts slipped a bit, but he's a low risk guy on what should still be a good Yankees team. Haren terrifies me, with spring velocity issues and heath concerns that led the Angels to practically throw him out of town. Miley would be a lot higher if he just struck anyone out. Wilson, Lester, and Vogelsong have all shown good and ugly sides in the last years. Expect a bit of both from them next year, but more of the good.

Rounds 13-14

49. Ryan Dempster, BOS
50. Phil Hughes, NYY
51. Edwin Jackson, CHC
52. Brett Anderson, OAK
53. Alexi Ogando, TEX
54. Matt Harvey, NYM
55. Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA
56. Tim Hudson, ATL
57. Tommy Milone, OAK

Dempster and Hughes might not be great for your rate stats, but they should be assets in K's and Wins. Jackson is as steady as they come, and he has an above-average strikeout rate. Anderson has tons of talent, but he's made of glass. Ogando is talented too, but he's still an unproven commodity as a starter. Harvey's K/9 rate alone makes him worth owning. Iwakuma, Hudson, and Milone are all relatively safe picks. Wins are a limitation for Iwakuma, strikeouts are for the other two.

Rounds 15-16

58. Jarrod Parker, OAK
59. Matt Harrison, TEX
60. Mike Fiers, MIL
61. Dillon Gee, NYM
62. Matt Garza, CHC
63. James McDonald, PIT
64. Jason Hammel, BAL
65. Wei-Yin Chen, BAL
66. Trevor Cahill, ARI

Parker and Harrison pitched to good seasons last year, and could be in line to improve, but I wouldn't expect another 18 wins from Harrison. Fiers and Gee both pitched very well in limited time last year, though Fiers flamed out in September. Both are high-risk, high-reward guys. Garza will be on the shelf until "possibly early May," but if you can wait, he's a fantasy asset when healthy. McDonald went all Jekyll and Hyde last year, with great and horrible parts to his season. On balance, he's still worth having. Hammel seems healthy so far; if durable he could be very high on this list. Chen and Cahill don't have huge upside, but they can capably round out a fantasy staff. 

Rounds 17-18

67. Joe Blanton, LAA
68. Shaun Marcum, NYM
69. Alex Cobb, TBR
70. Scott Baker, CHC
71. Trevor Bauer, CLE
72. A.J. Griffin, OAK
73. Josh Beckett, LAD
74. Chris Capuano, LAD
75. Derek Holland, TEX
76. Johan Santana, NYM

I know Blanton was awful last year, but his peripherals were just so good. I can't help taking a chance on a guy with a 4.88 K/BB. Marcum is a great pitcher when he's healthy, but the contract he got tells me that most teams in baseball didn't think he was worth taking a chance on. Of course, we aren't risking millions of dollars here. Maybe mock drafters don't know Baker isn't scheduled to be ready by Opening Day. He's a huge risk, but the upside could be 160 IP of nearly ace-level pitching. Like pretty much everyone else that pitches for Oakland, Griffin looked pretty good without very many strikeouts last year. Theoretically, Beckett could return to form in the NL. I'll believe it when I see it, probably on someone else's team. Capuano is easily one of the five best pitchers on the Dodgers, but he still might pitch in the bullpen. Sometimes life isn't fair. Holland took a bit of a backwards step last year, but he's still interesting. I had been excited about Santana, but the spring reports haven't been encouraging. His talent is still worth taking a chance on.

Rounds 19-20

77. Brandon McCarthy, ARI
78. Patrick Corbin, ARI
79. Bud Norris, HOU
80. Wandy Rodriguez, PIT

McCarthy was healthier than usual last year, but his strikeouts disappeared. If Corbin wins the fifth starter's job, he's got intriguing peripherals. Norris is a strikeout machine, but the Astros are just so bad. And his rate stats aren't great either. If the rumors of a trade to St. Louis come to fruition, though, bump him up ten or twenty spots as a wins and K's guy. "Magic" Wandy's strikeout numbers keep trending down, but he's still decent overall, and so are the Pirates. I suppose more pitchers can and should go in these rounds, but at some point the numbers lose their meaning, and all that matters is what kind of pitcher you need, and which kind of risks your team is ready to take. 

Deep League Options

Injury Returners: Cory Luebke, SDP (midseason), Colby Lewis, TEX (late May), Neftali Feliz, TEX (July), Brandon Beachy (June)

Wins: Bronson Arroyo, CIN, Mark Buehrle, TOR, Clay Buchholz, BOS, Ivan Nova, NYY, Paul Maholm, ATL

Strikeouts: Edinson Volquez, SDP, Felix Doubront, BOS, Chris Narveson, MIL

Prospects: Dylan Bundy, BAL, Shelby Miller, STL, Tyler Skaggs, ARI, Danny Hultzen, SEA, Julio Teheran, ATL, Gerrit Cole, PIT, Zack Wheeler, NYM, Dan Straily, OAK, Chris Archer, TBR

If I Only Had a Job: Kyle Lohse, FA, Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD, Aaron Harang, LAD, Ted Lilly, LAD, Carlos Villanueva, CHC, Mark Rogers, MIL

High Risk (Moderate-High Reward): Chad Billingsley, LAD, Tommy Hanson, LAA, Ervin Santana, KCR, Chris Tillman, BAL, John Lackey, BOS, Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE, Scott Kazmir, CLE, Erik Bedard, HOU, Jorge De La Rosa, COL, Wily Peralta, MIL, Jaime Garcia, STL

Low Risk (Low-Moderate Reward): Lucas Harrell, HOU, Gavin Floyd, CHW, Jeff Karstens, PIT, Jason Vargas, LAA, Bartolo Colon, OAK,  Miguel Gonzalez, BAL, John Danks, CHW, Jose Quintana, CHW, Zach McAllister, CLE, Brett Myers, CLE, Rick Porcello, DET, Jeremy Guthrie, KCR, Wade Davis, KCR, Vance Worley, MIN, Joe Saunders, SEA, Jeff Niemann, TBR, Jeremy Hellickson, TBR, Ricky Nolasco, MIA, John Lannan, PHI, Clayton Richard, SDP, Freddy Garcia, SDP, Jake Westbrook, STL, Barry Zito, SFG, Ross Detwiler, WAS

No, the above isn't quite an exhaustive list of Major League starters, but it is pretty close. If your league goes deep, you might just need several of these guys. If it's shallow you can stick to the top 80, and don't forget to tune in on Wednesday to find who our top starters are.

---

2013 Position Rankings: Relief Pitchers

No position comes close to relievers when it comes to unpredictability. With their value tied so intrinsically to saves, and each pitcher throwing only a tiny sample of innings, it shouldn't really be a surprise to anyone when weird things happen: like Fernando Rodney being 2012's best reliever; like John Axford pitching badly enough to lose his job; like anything that happens when Carlos Marmol is on the mound. 

So how do you rank players that come with such an intense level of inherent variance? With caution. Waiting on closers and drafting multiple smei-competent back-enders has always been my plan at this position, and I see little reason to change. Great relievers fall suddenly, and nobodies rise to prominence just as quickly. The rounds into which the closers are tiered reflect my own closer-caution--unfortunately, some drafts won't let you play it so safe if you want to compete in saves, so consider the rounds looser guidelines than usual, even though the player groups stand just fine.

We're finished with the hitters; you can find Shortstops, Third Basemen, Second Basemen, First Basemen, Catchers, and  Outfielders at these links. Today's rankings come from a team discussion, featuring Tim Dierkes and the entire RotoAuthority staff and they cover all the closers, plus some of the most draftable setup guys. They're divided into groups of similar value, and tiered by where they deserve to be drafted in a standard league. If you're bidding in an auction, consider players in the same tier to be of similar price.

3rd Round

1. Craig Kimbrel, ATL

Kimbrel is so good that even I would consider taking him in the third, and I haven't taken a closer before the 10th in about five years. Those strikeouts pile on value; my only worry is that dominant relievers before him have fallen hard.

7th Round

2. Jonathan Papelbon, PHI

After Kimbrel, there is no one I would take over Papelbon, for the simple reason that he's been good for so long that his sample isn't all that small any more: we can safely conclude that he's a good pitcher. It doesn't hurt that the Phillies are paying him big stacks of cash and won't remove him from the job unless he turns into Heath Bell.

8th-9th Round

3. Mariano Rivera, NYY
4. Joe Nathan, TEX
5. Jason Motte, STL

Rivera's been so good for so long that only his injury keeps him this low on my list. It's not that I think he'll be the best closer out there, it's that I'm very confident that he'll be good--and keep his job. Nathan proved last year that his injuries are behind him; like Rivera, so is a long history of success. Motte is a lot lower on this list than most, but don't get me wrong: he has a higher fantasy ceiling than anyone above him (except Kimbrel), but his relative inexperience also tells me that he has a lower floor. Plus, his team isn't invested in him the way Nathan's, Rivera's, and Papelbon's are.

11th-12th Rounds

6. J.J. Putz, ARI
7. Rafael Soriano, WAS
8. John Axford, MIL
9. Fernando Rodney, TBR

Putz is rock solid--when healthy. Fortunately, David Hernandez is one likely backup, and he's worth rostering in a setup role. Unfortunately, Heath Bell is the other likely backup. Soriano should be great in saves and strikeouts, but his walks will keep his WHIP up and probably lead to the occasional blowup. Axford should rebound from a tough 2012 to be the high-K stopper we'd come to expect. Rodney's last season screams fluke...but what if it wasn't? I'm willing to take that chance, albeit not as early as mock drafters are.

13th-14th

10. Jason Grilli, PIT
11. Sergio Romo, SFG
12. Greg Holland, KCR
13. Tom Wilhelmsen, SEA
14. Rafael Betancourt, COL
15. Glen Perkins, MIN 

Grilli seems like he came out of nowhere, but he's put up two excellent seasons in a row, and has four straight years of increasing strikeout rates--a number that increased to 13.81 K/9 last year. Romo has serious questions about the health of his elbow, and the best-case scenario for him seems to be that other members of his bullpen vulture more saves than average. Holland and Williamsen rake in the strikeouts but play for mediocre teams. Also, their closing tenure has been short, so their leashes will be too. Betancourt would be a tier higher if he didn't play in Colorado. Perkins was excellent last year, but how many leads will the Twins' rotation be able to deliver?

15th-16th

16. Huston Street, SDP
17. Addison Reed, CHW
18. Jonathan Broxton, CIN
19. Jim Johnson, BAL
20. Grant Balfour, OAK
21. Chris Perez, CLE
22. Steve Cishek, MIA 

Street is a very good pitcher--when healthy, which isn't much of the time. Draft him expecting a DL stint. Reed flew under the radar a little, but was quite successful. Broxton didn't impress--especially with the strikeouts, but the Reds should hand him plenty of leads. Johnson was dynamite last year...but he doesn't get many strikeouts and this Orioles fan expects a bit of team regression. Balfour's overall numbers are pretty good, but he bounced in and out of the closer role. Oakland is an organization that isn't afraid to make changes or defy convention, which is great for them, but less than ideal for a fantasy closer. Perez was surprisingly competent last year, but his shaky history keeps our enthusiasm low. Cishek pitched well, but it probably wouldn't take much for the mercurial Marlins to make a change. Also, they might not be too good next year.

17th-18th

23. Joel Hanrahan, BOS
24. Bobby Parnell, NYM

Hanrahan's underlying numbers were pretty shaky last year, and I don't think Boston will hesitate to make a change if one is needed. They proved with Andrew Bailey that trading for someone doesn't mean he'll get a long leash. Parnell is looking more and more like the Mets' closer in camp. If he starts the season with the job, he'll have to really blow up to lose it to Frank Francisco.

19th-20th

25. Brandon League, LAD
26. Ernesto Frieri, LAA
27. Kenley Jansen, LAD
28. Jose Veras, HOU
29. Sergio Santos, TOR

League and Frieri are both slated to start the season closing for their Los Angeles teams. Both teams are expected to switch closers at some point in the year. For the Angels, that's the plan: switch to Ryan Madson. For the Dodgers, it's what you expect when Jansen is that much better than League. As far as what will really happen...I couldn't say at all. I can say, however, that I prefer to take the guy with the job in hand, because sometimes they don't let it go. Speaking of jobs in hand, that's what Veras has in Houston, and what Santos appears to be grabbing--to start the season--in Toronto.

Should any of these messy closer situations get fully straightened out by Opening Day, Frieri and Jansen would belong in the 13-14th tier, Santos and League in the 15th-16th tier.

21st-22nd

30. Casey Janssen, TOR
31. Ryan Madson, LAA
32. Carlos Marmol, CHC
33. Kyuji Fujikawa, CHC

Janssen and Madson haven't healed as expected and could be seeing their jobs slip away. Should they manage to gain a certain hold on their jobs before Opening Day, both would be worth taking among the 15th-16th tier.

Marmol will have the job as long as he's a Cub--how else to keep his trade value up? The bad news for anyone who drafts him is that the Cubbies might have him traded by Opening Day. If that happens, bump Fujikawa way up this list, as he won't have much competition for saves. I would take him around the 15th or 16th round.

23rd and Beyond

34. Joaquin Benoit, DET
35. Al Alburquerque, DET
36. Bruce Rondon, DET
37. Frank Francisco, NYM 

I don't know what will happen in Detroit's bullpen, but all three of these guys have a chance to close, and a chance to keep the job if they get it. Maybe Francisco will keep his job.

Quality Non-Closers 

38. Vinnie Pestano, CLE
39. David Hernandez, ARI
40. David Robertson, NYY
41. Luke Gregerson, SDP
42. Sean Marshall, CIN
43. Santiago Casilla, SFG
44. Ryan Cook, OAK
45. Andrew Bailey, BOS
46. Drew Storen, WAS
47. Johnny Venters, ATL
48. Mike Adams, PHI
49. Antonio Bastardo, PHI
50. Tyler Clippard, WAS
51. Jacob McGee, TBR
52. Trevor Rosenthal, STL
53. Koji Uehara, BOS 

Some of these guys have a decent shot to close, thanks to a shaky or injury-prone incumbent (Pestano, Hernandez, Robertson, Gregerson, Cook, Bailey, Uehara), while others might vulture some saves along the way (Casilla, Marshall). Some are just worth rostering on their skills alone (Bastardo, Storen). All of these guys are probably best left for deeper leagues.

This year's closer picture is murkier than it has usually been in the recent past. More teams have unresolved questions surrounding the back end of their bullpens: the Angels, Dodgers, Tigers, Mets, Blue Jays, and Cubs are all without a certain closer. Expect to get quite a few saves off the waiver wire, and in the meantime, draft a few backup closers. Your relievers don't have to be the best to get the most saves.

---

Go Bold or Go Home: Draft Marco Estrada--Or Else

A part of me didn't want to write this article. Not because I don't believe in Marco Estrada, just the opposite. It's because I play against my own father in two leagues, and I know he reads this site. So go ahead dad, steal him from me, for the good of the readers.

Why am I so excited about Estrada? Is it because I have an unnatural appreciation for Brewers pitchers who pitch less than a full season? To be fair, I do like his rotation-mates Mike Fiers and Mark Rogers--and I'm willing to think about Wily Peralta and Chris Narveson. But Estrada is better than those guys, and he's better than literally most of the pitchers getting drafted ahead of him. Check out his stats from last year (forgetting his meaningless W-L record): 

23 GS, 138.1 IP, 143 SO, 3.64 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 1.14 WHIP

All of that is nice stuff in low innings, especially those whiffs; they translate to a nifty 9.30 K/9. For all those strikeouts, the righty doesn't cook with as much gas as you might think; his fastball averages just over 90mph. It's hard to care so much, though, when you see his control: he posted a sterling 1.89 BB/9, or just 29 walks all season.

That brings us to his best attribute: that ratio of strikeouts to walks. Lots of strikeouts is a great recipe for success. Very few walks is too. Combining them makes you very hard to beat. Estrada does it with an eye-opening 4.93 K/BB rate. Take a second look: 4.93. For pitches with 100 IP or more, only Cliff Lee, Colby Lewis, and Kris Medlen were better--and Estrada gets the most strikeouts of the bunch. Actually, of all nine pitchers with at least 100 IP and a K/BB of 4.00 or better, only Stephen Strasburg had a higher K/9.

This is a very impressive stat, and all the more so since past K/BB is such a good predictor of future overall performance (except in the case of Joe Blanton, but they can't all be winners). A bit of anecdotal evidence: I remember in 2004 when this pitcher came out of a tortured injury history to post a 4.00 K/9 and a 1.88 BB/9. Those numbers popped out then as much as they do now, so I drafted him. He turned out to be Chris Carpenter, and the next year he made his place among baseball's top pitchers. I'm not saying I'm sure Estrada will do the same, but I am saying I wouldn't be surprised if he did.

Maybe he'll make the jump to ace next year and maybe he won't. He isn't terribly young (age 30 season coming up), but all he has to do is stay the same for 180 IP or so and he'll be extremely valuable. Especially at his current Average Draft Position.

Mock drafters are nabbing him in only 36.1% of drafts, at 226.4--that places him near the end of the 18th round. The highest he's been drafted at all is at 192--leading off the 16th. I'd happily grab him several rounds higher. Consider some of the pitchers being drafted ahead of him: A.J. Griffin, Ricky Romero, Phil Hughes, Trever Bauer, James McDonald, Jeremy Hellickson, Trevor Cahill, lesser-but-still-good-teammate Mike Fiers, maybe-relieving Alexi Ogando, probably-starting-in-the-minors Dylan Bundy, half a season of Brandon Beachy, and the duct-taped together Scott Baker. There are more, but you get the idea. A lot of those pitchers are higher risk or lower reward than Estrada. Actually, most are both and I'd happily take Estrada over any of them.

Estrada's ADP makes him the 71st pitcher taken and I have to scroll way up the list before I get to a place where I'd rather have most--still not all--of the pitchers being taken over him. It's probably somewhere around the 40th pitcher taken. There are still some before that point that I wouldn't draft, and a few behind it that I'd take over Estrada, but that's about where the quality starts going up. Pitcher number 40 happens to be Tim Lincecum at the moment, an enigma of his own. Overall, that gives him an ADP of 148.32--good for a spot in the 12th round. Adding a round to account for the fact that I think I can get a good deal, that means I'm targeting Marco Estrada in the 13th. And if his ADP goes up, I might be jumping on him even earlier.

There are reasons to doubt, I suppose. Most importantly, Estrada's low innings total was the highest of his career, so one worries how things will go when stretched over a full season. But if it weren't for those worries, you wouldn't be able to get Estrada in the 13th round, let alone the 18th. You'd be drafting him in the fourth of fifth.

There aren't many lists in fantasy baseball more different than the pitchers that show up around Estrada when you search him by K/BB--Lee, Medlen, CC Sabathia, R.A. Dickey, Cole Hamels--and those that you can find when searching him by ADP--Romero, Griffin, Jason Vargas, Tommy Hanson, Josh Beckett, and even Carpenter, in a cruel irony. His performance puts him with elite pitchers, his price tag with innings-eaters and retreads. That's what I call a bargain.

 I wanted to make a list of other targets similar to Estrada, but there really aren't any. His K/BB is far ahead of others who have good ones. His K/9 is far better than most other pitchers with his kind of control. So get him on your team. Whatever he costs, I'll bet you he's a bargain.

---

How to Win: Strikeouts

Last Week on How to Win, I discussed a category in which I did particularly well last year: Stolen Bases. We'll do the same this week, with Strikeouts, before we go on to the categories in which I need to improve as much as anyone else: all the others.

Quick Overview
I love me some strikeouts. Last year, my fifth place Silver League team ran away with this category (so yeah, my other categories had some rough times). Part of that might have been amassing enough innings to eclipse our 1500 max a little early (and that after dumping every starter but David Price at some point in September), but that wasn't the whole story. Volume is half the story, though, the rest comes in the rate. Below we'll examine both halves of a winning strategy--and how going overboard isn't necessarily great for your ERA and WHIP.

2012's Top 24

1. Justin Verlander               239
2. Max Scherzer                     231
3. R.A. Dickey                         230
4. Clayton Kershaw               229
5. Felix Hernandez                223
5. James Shields                     223 
7. Yu Darvish                           221
8. Cole Hamels                        216
9. Gio Gonzalez                        207 
9. Cliff Lee                                 207
11. David Price                         205
12. Yovani Gallardo                204
13. Zack Greinke                      200
14. CC Sabathia                        197
14. Stephen Strasburg            197
16. Jake Peavy                           194
17. Matt Cain                            193
18. Chris Sale                            192
19. Madison Bumgarner        191
20. Tim Lincecum                    190
21. Ian Kennedy                       187
22. Mat Latos                            185
23. Adam Wainwright            184
24. A.J. Burnett                        180
24. Lance Lynn                        180
24. Jeff Samardzija                 180 

Most of baseball's best pitchers show up on this list and it's easy to say that the best way to help yourself in strikeouts is to get at least two of these guys. That's what I was trying to do when I drafted Price and Dan Haren. The only reason it worked out, of course, is because I soon flipped Haren for Scherzer, among others. So there was a bit of good luck. None of the rest of these guys made it onto my team, though, leaving me with a need fore a little more creativity.

High K/9 Pitchers
Not every pitcher on the list above put up huge K/9 numbers, but all had good ones--in fact, only Peavy, Cain, and Latos were under 8 K/9 and all three sat in the 7.90's. Of course, not every pitcher with a high strikeout rate pitches enough to make it onto this leaderboard. Getting those guys (and hopefully for longer stints in 2013) is a great way to patch up a fantasy rotation with a bunch of strikeouts. The way I figure, is that if I have to have some non-aces on my team, they better be handy with the whiffs. Here are a few pitchers who missed the cut when it came to innings last year but might still pad your K's next year. Everyone below pitched at least 100 innings last year and struck out at least eight batters per nine IP.

Francisco Liriano        9.59
Mike Fiers                      9.52
Felix Doubront             9.34
Marco Estrada              9.30
J.A. Happ                       8.96
Matt Moore                    8.88
Bud Norris                      8.82
Carlos Villanueva         8.76
Jason Hammel             8.62
Edinson Volquez          8.57
Jake Arrieta                   8.56
Johan Santana             8.54
Erik Bedard                    8.45
Matt Garza                     8.33
Tommy Hanson           8.30
Ivan Nova                      8.08 

As you can see, results and potential fantasy value vary wildly on this list, from the misery that was Francisco Liriano, to the health-restricted performences of Santana, Hammel, and Garza, and to the late callups of Fiers and Estrada. There are a lot of ways to get a lot of strikeouts when you're pitching, without making it to the leaderboard. (To be fair, Moore and Volquez literally just missed the cut.) It might be worth noting that my own team featured Estrada, Doubront, and Villanueva from among this group.

Not only are these players interesting draft targets (from a strikeout perspective anyway, your ERA and WHIP stats certainly cringe at some of them), you can utilize 2013's versions of them, whoever they might end up being. Of course, several of these were mid-season surprises, so there's no real knowing which injury replacements might come up and help your fantasy team as much as their real team. Here's a couple fairly drowsy sleepers, though: Chris Narveson and Scott Baker. The Brewers and Cubs are both linked to more than one name on this list, which tells me how they feel about pitchers who can get strikeouts, and both Narveson and Baker have generated their share of whiffs during their oft-interrupted stays in the Majors. Don't forget about stashable pitchers coming back from injury part way through the season, like Brandon Beachy, Cory Luebke, and Danny Duffy.

High IP 
There's another route you can go, though, and this one's group of pitchers is somewhat less volatile than the group above. Finding pitchers who pitch a lot, whether they have high strikeout rates or not, can let you rack up strikeouts in bulk. This option is much better for those in head-to-head leagues, however, since heaping on the innings can hurt you badly when you start facing the IP cap. The nice thing, though, is that pitchers that teams entrust with tall innings counts year after year are usually a bit better than average, and (seemingly) much healthier--though obvious exceptions will apply. Here are the last three years' top innings eaters not found on the previous lists. All have pitched at least 600 innings since 2010.

Dan Haren                    650
Jared Weaver                648.2
Roy Halladay                640.2
C.J. Wilson                   629.2
Ervin Santana               629.1
Tim Hudson                  622.2
Hiroki Kuroda              618
Mark Buehrle                618
Bronson Arroyo            616.2
Ricky Romero               616
Jason Vargas               611
Jon Lester                     605
Trevor Cahill                604.1
Justin Masterson        602.1

Some of these guys fell off the list above--and out of fantasy's most valuable pitchers--last year through injuries, like Halladay, or a mysterious plunge in K/9 rate, like Weaver. Others, though, just don't generate that many strikeouts in a per inning basis. They can all be pencilled in for 200 IP, though, which means that they'll be of some help in those strikeouts.

It also seems worth noting that Edwin Jackson just missed being part of this group, with 598.2 IP, and he just missed the High K/9 group, with a 7.97 mark. To me, that makes him a really useful asset.

 
Relievers
Relief pitchers are a great way to pad your strikeout totals if you're worried about an innings limit. They get a lot more bang for their buck with their high rates than all but the best starters. Though they don't add a huge amount in raw total, using two or three in concert can be a sort of cobbled-together ace, Frankenstein-style. Of course, they eat up more roster spots than starters and tend to make small (or catastrophic) impacts on your rate stats without helping much at all in wins or, unless they're actual closers, saves. Since everybody's going to be snatching up closers, good or not, we'll only look at relievers not projected to close in 2013, regardless of what they used to do.

Antonio Bastardo        14.02
Ernesto Frieri               13.36 
Jim Henderson            13.21
David Hernandez        12.91
Steve Delabar                12.55
David Robertson          12.02
Tim Collins                    12.01
Jake McGee                   11.87
Jake Diekman              11.52
Jeremy Horst                11.49
Louis Coleman             11.47
Alex Hinshaw              11.44
Sean Doolittle               11.41
Andrew Miller              11.48
Joel Peralta                   11.38
Jesse Crain                    11.35
Alberto Cabrera            11.22
Wade Davis                   11.13

I made 11.13 the cutoff point, since that was Stephen Strasburg's mark last year--the best of any starter. The list goes on and on, though. Anyone on this list--or among the next large number of names with even a hint of the occasional save bears watching. Those at the very top of the list might deserve drafting even if they end up with no saves or wins at all.

(I don't know if Frieri or Ryan Madson will be closing for the Halos, so I'll include him here just in case.)

A Few Last Words
There are a lot of ways to go about succeeding in the strikeout category. One nice thing, is that, like steals, whiffs seem often to be available on the waiver wire. There are a number of less-than-excellent pitchers who rack up strikeouts and they can help your team if used right. Plus, real teams are always excited to call up a hard-throwing prospect and they can light up the real and fantasy baseball worlds long enough to help your team, even if they end up fizzling out. I do recommend a staff ace (actually, I try for two) who strikes people out in a big way. Think of Stephen Strasburg as a power/speed threat but for pitchers. If you play in a league with an IP cap, I'd avoid the innings-eaters altogether. If you don't, however--and especially if your league has barriers against streaming--I'd grab several. Strikeouts come from all kinds of places, and mixing several sources is always a good way to go. 

---

Go Bold or Go Home: Stephen Strasburg is the New Pedro Martinez

Stephen Strasburg is the new Pedro? What do I mean by that? Simply this: back in the day, Pedro was worth a first round pick, sometimes the first pick, and no other pitcher was all that close. I'm talking about Pedro before he threw Don Zimmer to the ground by the head, before he headhunted unsuspecting Devil Rays. I'm talking 1999-2001 Pedro, that's who Strasburg can be. Don't let him slip through your fingers in the first round, and whatever you do, don't waste a pick on some other pitcher instead.

As far as I can guess, there are three possible responses to this idea, and I'll deal with each one in turn.

1. Duh.
Fair enough, you're already on the Strasburg bandwagon. Go win your league. Better yet, finish reading this article just to be more sure.

2. But pitchers NEVER belong in the first round!
Never is such a scary word to throw around, but usually I agree with this idea. Whenever someone in my league nabs a starter in the first round, I always get excited, thinking they've wasted their pick. There are a couple reasons for this to usually be true, but they don't hold water this year.

The biggest reason is that pitchers are risky, moreso than position players and thus should not be given a first round pick. The problem with that this year is that there are an unusually rare amount of risky players on the first-rounder suspect list. Players like Matt Kemp (ADP 4.43) and Joey Votto (8.60) who missed significant portions of last season are there, not to mention garden variety injury risks like Carlos Gonzalez (9.75). On top of that, players like Justin Upton (15.07) and Adrian Gonzalez (32.16) who we counted on last year to provide big impacts failed to do so. Other first rounders that we've grown accustomed to seeing have dropped out of the top slots after injury marred (or ruined) seasons include Jose Bautista (14.11) , Troy Tulowitzki (16.15), and Evan Longoria (32.59). Someone has to take those spots over, but there's a lot more risk in the first round than there is in most years. So maybe taking a pitcher isn't so bad.

Along with the higher risk of some of the best potential first rounders this year, I think it's fair to say that, outside of the top four or five, the actual quality of this year's potential first rounders is lower than usual. A lot of those first round picks are providing the same (or nearly the same) value as players that can be found in the second round. Like Albert Pujols (7.18)? Try Prince Fielder (14.48). Like Carlos Gonzalez (9.75)? Try Adam Jones (25.41). Let's face it--a lot of first round picks are looking a lot like second round picks this year.

 The rule against taking a starter in the first round is a good one. This year just happens to be a great year to break it.

3. Strasburg isn't even the best pitcher in baseball, let alone as much better as Pedro Martinez was ten years ago! Give me Clayton Kershaw or Justin Verlander instead.

In all fairness, yes Strasburg is, for all it matters for your fantasy draft. In all but one respect, Strasburg is significantly better than Kershaw or Verlander than they are better than the others. That is to say, Kershaw and Verlander are great, but not very much greater than these pitchers: Cliff Lee, David Price, Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, Jared Weaver, Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia and others, in no particular order.

For the time being, I'm prepared to ignore any argument made that Kershaw will win more games in the shiny new Dodgers, or that Verlander will on the Tigers. Washington is a good team, and their offense will be good enough to keep Strasburg in plenty of games. With normal luck, he should be among the league's leaders in wins. Too bad you never know when someone will get normal luck with wins and when he won't. So call that one even, or insufficiently predictable.

The difference is in the strikeouts. Those of you who followed me in last year's Silver League Updates, will know that I love my strikeouts. So I'm admitting that bias. But they're a category, and they're decent at giving us information about two more categories (ERA and WHIP, obviously). We can learn even more when we add walks to the equation. Let's see how Strasburg (ADP 23.77) stacks up with the three pitchers being drafted before him: Kershaw (12.64), Verlander (15.56), and Price (23.59). Just for fun, let's check out the next three pitchers after him too: Lee (30.67), Hernandez (35.10), and Yu Darvish (36.95).

Here they are in K/9:

Strasburg    11.13
Darvish        10.40
Kershaw       9.05
Verlander    9.03
Lee                 8.83
Price              8.74
Hernandez  8.65

 All seven put up great numbers, but only Darvish came within two strikeouts per nine innings of Strasburg's total. And Darvish put up an ugly 4.19 BB/9 rate that didn't exactly help his ERA or WHIP.

Maybe you prefer K%, fair enough. How about this list:

Strasburg       30.2%
Darvish           27.1%
Kershaw         25.4%
Verlander      25.0%
Price                24.5%
Lee                   24.4%
Hernandez    23.8%

If anything, Strasburg looks even better here, blasting the competition out of the water. (In all fairness, Max Scherzer looks pretty good here too, at 29.4%.)

What about K/BB, then? That's the one that gives a really good indication of next year's ERA and (especially) WHIP. (Spoiler alert: Cliff Lee reigns supreme.)

Lee                   7.39
Strasburg      4.10
Verlander     3.98
Hernandez    3.98
Kershaw        3.63
Price               3.47
Darvish          2.48

Two names stand out here as outliers. In fact, Lee's rate is more than 2.5 BB/9 better than the second best pitcher by this measure, none other than Joe Blanton. Yeah, him. (Sleeper? Maybe...) The other outlier, of course, is Darvish. So here's more confirmation not to take him over Strasburg, or anywhere near the other six pitchers on this list, if you were thinking about it. 

That leaves us with five names, and, once again, Strasburg is on top. But maybe he's striking out so many batters that he can walk a few too many and still look good. Maybe a lousy walk rate could take his ERA and WHIP down like Darvish's did.

Or maybe not: his walk rate sat at 2.71 last year. Five of the other six pitchers we compared him too had better rates, but not by a huge amount. Discounting Lee's ridiculous number (1.10!), King Felix was the best, with a 2.17 BB/9 rate. Price, Verlander, and Kershaw all fell in between.

This has been a lot of stats, but it boils down to a pretty simple point: Strasburg's strikeouts are significantly better than his competition for the top pitcher in (fantasy) baseball. It isn't even close. His walk numbers are similar to the competition, and not different enough to give them significant value over him. Other factors, like his team, just aren't as big of a deal.

The only reason I can see to take Verlander or Kershaw or anyone else over Strasburg is their experience, which is really just cover for the fact that we're comfortable taking those guys off the board first. I don't think you'll find very many people willing to say inexperience is going to cause Stephen Strasburg any trouble in the near future. As a rookie, Strasburg wasn't a normal phenom. As fantasy's best pitcher, he isn't any more normal. The difference between him and the next best pitchers is noticeably bigger than the difference between them and all the other ace pitchers.

By the way, looking at last year's data is kind of like assuming that Strasburg has peaked in his age-24 season, and that he doesn't have room to improve for next year. How often do great 24-year-olds not become better 25-year-olds?

Between the higher risk and lower quality in this year's top position players and Strasburg's own dominance over his competition there is a lot of reason to reach for him. Like Pedro Martinez before him, Strasburg is worth a pick in the middle of the first round in a way that no pitcher has been in a long time. Next year, this idea won't make it into an article like Go Bold or Go Home because everyone will agree. Get ahead of the game.

---

What It Takes To Win: Strikeouts

Next up in our What It Takes To Win series, strikeouts.  The goal here is to determine the stats needed to achieve fourth place in each of the ten common roto categories.  The league type: 12-team mixed with 14 hitters, 9 pitchers, 3 bench spots, 2 DL spots.

In the first league I looked at, 1279 Ks was good for fourth place.  In the second, 1268 was enough.  Reader data sent in showed more variance, but typically showed a lower benchmark than my leagues.  We'll go with 1270 strikeouts this year to be safe.

Technically you are looking for 141 Ks from each of the nine pitching spots.  But your typical closer whiffs about 65, and you should have three of those.  So you're looking for about 179 Ks from each of your six starters.

In 2008, 20 pitchers reached 179 Ks. In '07 it was 17 and in '06 it was 14.  I'm only projecting 12 to pull it off in '09, but there are always surprises.  You really can't beat Javier Vazquez for 198 Ks in the 13th round.   You can also draft Rich Harden, Joba Chamberlain, Max Scherzer, Jonathan Sanchez, Erik Bedard, Chris Young, and John Smoltz based on their strong K/9s, combining them with replacement level pitchers to reach a strong strikeout total for the roster spot.

By the way, four closers are projected to top 80 Ks: Brad Lidge, Francisco Rodriguez, Carlos Marmol, and Jonathan Broxton.

---

Strikeouts & The Pitchers That Get 'Em

• There is no question: the strikeout is a pitcher's holy grail. Unlike other "outcomes" the strikeout always produces an out and leaves no chance for a runner to advance. Strikeouts represent the lowest run impact out of all possible batter/pitcher sequences.
• The strikeout is a statistic that shows levels of reliability as early as 150 batters faced; quicker than any other pitching stat. Or in other words: we don't need a large sample-size to figure out which pitchers can, and cannot strike batters out. And what pitchers will, and will-not strike batters out--going forward.
• Strikeouts are also ballpark and defense defensible. It doesn't matter if a SP is in Colorado with three Jack Custs and four Derek Jeters in the outfield and infield respectively; if he can induce strikeouts, he's likely to succeed regardless.
• In most cases, the fantasy team with the most strikeouts is competitive in the other pitching categories as well. It makes more sense to target the strikeout as an indicator of future ERA, than it's to target a pitchers past ERA as an indicator of future ERA.

With all that being said, lets look at the top 20 SP with the best K rate last season (pitchers that qualified), and see where they're being drafted as per Mock Draft Central's ADP data.

* Most places use K/9 (strikeout per nine innings), but thanks to THT, we can take it a step further, and look at K/G (works as: strikeouts per batter faced).

1. Tim Lincecum 11.1 K/G | 227 IP | 2.62 ERA | 27.43 ADP
By far the best K/G, and he's going a round later than Santana. Lincecum is my #1 SP in '09.

2. Edinson Volquez 9.5 K/G | 196 IP | 3.21 ERA | 110.48 ADP
Volquez has a problem with walks, but a lot of young SPs do. He has elite upside, and going in the 9th round in 12 team leagues.

3. A.J. Burnett 9.3 K/G | 221.3 IP | 4.07 ERA | 98.18 ADP
Has a reputation for being injured, but has averaged 193 IP over his last two seasons.

4. Ervin Santana 9.2 K/G | 219 IP | 3.66 ERA | 89.05 ADP
Flashed excellent peripherals last season--to go a long with his top 5 K/G. I'd have a hard time letting him fall to the 8th round in my draft. He's 26 years old; past the injury nexus, so I wouldn't worry too much about his 70 innings over 2007.

5. Josh Beckett 9.1 K/G | 174.3 IP | 4.03 ERA | 72.58 ADP
The above 3 pitchers represent better draft-day value--but Beckett's improved K rate (year over year, the last 2 seasons), is worth bringing attention to.

6. Jake Peavy 9.1 K/G | 173.7 IP | 2.85 ERA | 44.16 ADP
The subject of trade talks all offseason. No question: his fantasy value is highest at Petco. He's going almost 30 full picks ahead of Beckett; I'd rather have Beckett, and that isn't even considering their draft day cost.

7. Chad Billingsley 9.1 K/G | 200.7 IP | 3.14 ERA | 93.66 ADP
Both Volquez's and Billingsley's breakout seasons were legit, and both pitchers will provide value per their ADP. I'd take Volquez over Billingsley, though. And he can be had 20 picks later.

8. Dan Haren 9.1 K/G | 216 IP | 3.33 ERA | 57.85 ADP
Haren's move to the NL increased his K rate substantially. He's a safe bet for 200+ innings, 200+ K's, and fantastic WHIP due to his elite walk rate. It's hard to make an argument--that puts him outside of the first tier.

9. Javier Vazquez 8.7 K/G | 208.3 IP | 4.67 ERA | 151.47 ADP
His peripherals outperformed his ERA and WHIP. A good bet to rebound to 2007 performance levels. At 151.47 ADP, he's a potential S.O.D.

10. Randy Johnson 8.6 K/G | 184 IP | 3.91 ERA | 154.85 ADP
RJ showed he could still fool hitters with the best of them; in his mid 40s no less. I don't see him slowing down in '09.

11. Ryan Dempster 8.5 K/G | 206.7 IP | 2.96 ERA | 150.08 ADP
Dempster won't likely match his 2008 ratios, but his excellent K rate last season validates his effectiveness. I'd take a flier on him in the early-middle rounds, well before 150th overall.

12. Cole Hamels 8.3 K/G | 227.3 IP | 3.09 ERA | 41.62 ADP
Has averaged 205 IP over his last two seasons. The concerns with injury that plagued the majority of his young pro career are well behind him. He's being drafted where he should be. Many of the names above represent better draft day value.

13. Ricky Nolasco 8.3 K/G | 212.3 IP | 3.52 ERA | 128.71 ADP
Came from seemingly nowhere and finished the season as one of the best pitchers in the National League. His K rate (and other peripherals) show that his season wasn't fluky. He's much more valuable than his 128 ADP. Definitely on my short list of pitchers to target this season.

14. Daisuke Matsuzaka 8.3 K/G | 167.7 IP | 2.90 ERA | 100.20 ADP
Low IP total (because of poor BB rate) suppresses his value, but he's an excellent strikeout pitcher. Other names above represent better draft day value.

15. Zach Greinke 8.3 K/G | 202.3 IP | 3.47 ERA | 152.66 ADP
Excellent pitcher, excellent story, what's not to like here? Another middle rounder who is worthy of a top 100 selection.

16. Ted Lilly 8.3 K/G | 204.7 IP | 4.09 ERA | 190.83 ADP
Very good, very undervalued.

17. Johan Santana 8.3 K/G | 234.3 IP | 2.53 ERA | 18.63 ADP
Let somebody else take him in the first two rounds; many of the players above will come at a better value. Put me on board with others worried about his declining peripherals.

18. Oliver Perez 8.2 K/G | 194 IP | 4.22 ERA | 228.80 ADP
Value hindered by lack of control. But still better than his 229 ADP suggests.

19. Roy Halladay 8.0 K/G | 246 IP | 2.78 ERA | 46.32 ADP
His K rate improved dramatically last season. He's definitely a first tier SP, and his peripherals suggest he has as much upside as anybody already mentioned.

20. Johnny Cueto 8.0 K/G | 174 IP | 4.81 ERA | 195 ADP
Like most young pitchers--he needs to work on his control. He had a fantastic 2.1 minor league BB/9; there's a good chance he figures out his control problems sooner rather than later. Only concern is injury risk until age 24.

Here are some pitchers that didn't qualify, but are worth mentioning:

1. Rich Harden 12.1 K/G | 148 IP | 2.07 ERA | 118.16 ADP
Made 25 starts, providing excellent value for anybody who drafted him last year. Injury questions still linger, but he's a safer selection now than he was last season.

2. John Smoltz 11.9 K/G | 28 IP | 2.57 ERA | 220.18 ADP
Just signed by the Red Sox, but can still miss bats with the best of them. Just last year he was a top 10 SP. Age and injury are a concern; his upside is probably similar to The Units '08 season, where he rebounded from what most thought was a career ending injury.

3. Hong-Chih Kuo 11.5 K/G | 80 IP | 2.36 ERA | 240.92 ADP
Amazing K rate. Surprisingly going un drafted in some leagues. If news breaks that he has a job in the Dodgers rotation, he becomes worthy of a middle round selection.

4. Joba Chamberlain 10.9 K/G | 2.60 ERA | 99.12 ADP
Starter or Reliever? Lots of potential, but still many questions linger.

5. Max Scherzer 10.8 K/G | 56 IP | 3.05 ERA | 181.60 ADP
I like Max, but he's still pretty raw. There's a lot of potential behind that 10.8 K/G, but several pitchers earlier mentioned are safer bets for a full season's worth of innings, and come at a better price.

 

---

Strikeouts & The Starting Pitchers That Get 'Em

• There is no question: the strikeout is a pitcher's holy grail. Unlike other "outcomes" the strikeout always produces an out and leaves no chance for a runner to advance. Strikeouts represent the lowest run impact out of all possible batter/pitcher sequences.
• In fantasy baseball the strikeout is a standard category; it's also a statistic that shows levels of reliability as early as 150 batters faced; quicker than any other pitching stat. Or in other words: we don't need a large sample-size to figure out which pitchers can, and cannot strike batters out. And what pitchers will, and will-not strike batters out--going forward.
• Strikeouts are also ballpark and defense defensible. It doesn't matter if a SP is in Colorado with three Jack Cust's and 4 Derek Jeter's in the outfield and infield respectively; if he can induce strikeouts, he's likely to succeed regardless.
• In most cases, the fantasy team with the most strikeouts is competitive in the other pitching categories as well. It makes more sense to target the strikeout as an indicator of future ERA, than it's to target a pitchers past ERA as an indicator of future ERA.

With all that being said, lets look at the top 20 SP with the best K rate last season (pitchers that qualified), and see where they're being drafted as per Mock Draft Central's ADP data.

* Most places use K/9 (strikeout per nine innings), but thanks to THT, we can take it a step further, and look at K/G (works as: strikeouts per batter faced).

1. Tim Lincecum 11.1 K/G | 227 IP | 2.62 ERA | 27.43 ADP
By far the best K/G, and he's going a round later then Santana. Lincecum is my #1 SP in '09.

2. Edinson Volquez 9.5 K/G | 196 IP | 3.21 ERA | 110.48 ADP
Volquez has a problem with walks, but a lot of young SPs do. He has elite upside, and going in the 9th round in 12 team leagues.

3. A.J. Burnett 9.3 K/G | 221.3 IP | 4.07 ERA | 98.18 ADP
Has a reputation for being injured, but has averaged 193 IP over his last two seasons.

4. Ervin Santana 9.2 K/G | 219 IP | 3.66 ERA | 89.05 ADP
Flashed excellent peripherals last season--to go a long with his top 5 K/G. I'd have a hard time letting him fall to the 8th round in my draft. He's 26 years old; past the injury nexus, so I wouldn't worry too much about his 70 innings over 2007.

5. Josh Beckett 9.1 K/G | 174.3 IP | 4.03 ERA | 72.58 ADP
The above 3 pitchers represent better draft-day value--but Beckett's improved K rate (year over year, the last 2 seasons), is worth bringing attention to.

6. Jake Peavy 9.1 K/G | 173.7 IP | 2.85 ERA | 44.16 ADP
The subject of trade talks all offseason. No question: his fantasy value is highest at Petco. He's going almost 30 full picks ahead of Beckett; I'd rather have Beckett, and that isn't even considering their draft day cost.

7. Chad Billingsley 9.1 K/G | 200.7 IP | 3.14 ERA | 93.66 ADP
Both Volquez's and Billingsley's breakout seasons were legit, and both pitchers will provide value per their ADP. I'd take Volquez over Billingsley, though. And he can be had 20 picks later.

8. Dan Haren 9.1 K/G | 216 IP | 3.33 ERA | 57.85 ADP ADP
Haren's move to the NL increased his K rate substantially. He's a safe bet for 200+ innings, 200+ K's, and fantastic WHIP due to his elite walk rate. It's hard to make an argument--that puts him outside of the first tier.

9. Javier Vazquez 8.7 K/G | 208.3 IP | 4.67 ERA | 151.47 ADP
His peripherals outperformed his ERA and WHIP. A good bet to rebound to 2007 performance levels. At 151.47 ADP, he's a potential S.O.D.

10. Randy Johnson 8.6 K/G | 184 IP | 3.91 ERA | 154.85 ADP
RJ showed he could still fool hitters with the best of them; in his mid 40s no less. I don't see him slowing down in '09.

11. Ryan Dempster 8.5 K/G | 206.7 IP | 2.96 ERA | 150.08 ADP
Dempster won't likely match his 2008 ratios, but his excellent K rate last season validates his effectiveness. I'd take a flier on him in the early-middle rounds, well before 150th overall.

12. Cole Hamels 8.3 K/G | 227.3 IP | 3.09 ERA | 41.62 ADP
Has averaged 205 IP over his last two seasons. The concerns with injury that plagued the majority of his young pro career are well behind him. He's being drafted where he should be. Many of the names above represent better draft day value.

13. Ricky Nolasco 8.3 K/G | 212.3 IP | 3.52 ERA | 128.71 ADP
Came from seemingly nowhere and finished the season as one of the best pitchers in the National League. His K rate (and other peripherals) show that his season wasn't fluky. He's much more valuable than his 128 ADP. Definitely on my short list of pitchers to target this season.

14. Daisuke Matsuzaka 8.3 K/G | 167.7 IP | 2.90 ERA | 100.20 ADP
Low IP total (because of poor BB rate) suppresses his value, but he's an excellent strikeout pitcher. Other names above represent better draft day value.

15. Zach Greinke 8.3 K/G | 202.3 IP | 3.47 ERA | 152.66 ADP
Excellent pitcher, excellent story, what's not to like here? Another middle rounder who is worthy of a top 100 selection.

16. Ted Lilly 8.3 K/G | 204.7 IP | 4.09 ERA | 190.83 ADP
Very good, very undervalued.

17. Johan Santana 8.3 K/G | 234.3 IP | 2.53 ERA | 18.63 ADP
Let somebody else take him in the first two rounds; many of the players above will come at a better value. Put me on board with others worried about his declining peripherals.

18. Oliver Perez 8.2 K/G | 194 IP | 4.22 ERA | 228.80 ADP
Value hindered by lack of control. But still better than his 229 ADP suggests.

19. Roy Halladay 8.0 K/G | 246 IP | 2.78 ERA | 46.32 ADP
His K rate improved dramatically last season. He's definitely a first tier SP, and his peripherals suggest he has as much upside as anybody already mentioned.

20. Johnny Cueto 8.0 K/G | 174 IP | 4.81 ERA | 195 ADP
Like most young pitchers--he needs to work on his control. He had a fantastic 2.1 minor league BB/9; there's a good chance he figures out his control problems sooner rather than later. Only concern is injury risk until age 24.

Here are some pitchers that didn't qualify, but are worth mentioning:

1. Rich Harden 12.1 K/G | 148 IP | 2.07 ERA | 118.16 ADP
Made 25 starts, providing excellent value for anybody who drafted him last year. Injury questions still linger, but he's a safer selection now than he was last season.

2. John Smoltz 11.9 K/G | 28 IP | 2.57 ERA | 220.18 ADP
Just signed by the Red Sox, but can still miss bats with the best of them. Just last year he was a top 10 SP. Age and injury are a concern; his upside is probably similar to The Units '08 season, where he rebounded from what most thought was a career ending injury.

3. Hong-Chih Kuo 11.5 K/G | 80 IP | 2.36 ERA | 240.92 ADP
Amazing K rate. Surprisingly going un drafted in some leagues. If news breaks that he has a job in the Dodgers rotation, he becomes worthy of a middle round selection.

4. Joba Chamberlain 10.9 K/G | 2.60 ERA | 99.12 ADP
Starter or Reliever? Lots of potential, but still many questions linger.

5. Max Scherzer 10.8 K/G | 56 IP | 3.05 ERA | 181.60 ADP
I like Max, but he's still pretty raw. There's a lot of potential behind that 10.8 K/G, but several pitchers earlier mentioned are safer bets for a full seasons's worth of innings, and come at a better price.

---

Looking For Strikeouts?

Today we have a guest article written by Brett Greenfield of Fantasy Phenoms.

Strikeout rate (K/9) is the most telling stat when looking for strikeout pitchers.  It's logical that if you were to pitch 300 innings you'd strikeout 200 batters if you were halfway decent.  But the best strikeout pitchers and the ones you want on your team are those who maintain the highest K/9 ratios. They usually strike out a batter per inning or more.

Because maintaining the high ratio is important, we'll be looking at the pitchers with 60+ innings pitched so far in 2008.  Here's your current top 10 and their respective K/9 ratios:

Edinson Volquez - 10.67
Chad Billingsley - 10.06
Randy Johnson - 9.47
Josh Beckett - 9.46
Jonathan Sanchez - 8.96
Tim Lincecum - 8.93
Ted Lilly - 8.77
Javier Vazquez - 8.68
A.J. Burnett - 8.67
C.C. Sabathia - 8.57

Of this group, Burnett, Lincecum, Vazquez, Billingsley and Beckett all finished in the top 15 in K/9 ratio last year. They are no surprise.

Burnett makes one of the best targets right now. He's been quite unlucky with the amount of runners scoring that reach base. Because he's in a contract year and has maintained his dominant strikeout rate, he could be acquired cheaply.

Johnson may be a surprise to some, but in limited time last year, he actually had a K/9 ratio of 11. He's doing it again and remains a cheap source of strikeouts while healthy.

Sabathia was at 7.80 last year and is up almost a full strikeout. He'll contend for the league lead in strikeouts if he logs 240+ innings like he did in 2007. He's playing for a Santana-like contract.

Lilly was ranked 28th last year so he's a bit higher than normal. He happens to be the second cheapest course of strikeouts to Johnson though.

It's not fair to compare Sanchez to his 2007 stats. He made only four starts and pitched mostly in relief. He did, however, strike out 62 batters in 52 innings. It will be interesting to see how he holds up.

Volquez's success shouldn't come as a surprise to many. He struck out 166 batters in 144 minor league innings in 2007. He made a few starts with Texas last summer and struck out 29 batters in 35 innings. Think about Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. They both came from AL clubs and upon switching to the Reds of the National League, took full advantage of facing the pitcher 3+ times a game. Harang has gone on to strike out 200 batters in each of his last two years with the Reds and is on pace to make it three.  Lilly enjoyed the same success since he left the Blue Jays for the Cubs. Expect Volquez to keep up this rigourous pace and contend for the NL strikeout crown.

I'll leave you with a few starting pitchers who, despite having logged fewer innings, have K/9 ratios that make them worth watching. You may want to go so far as to add them if you are looking for strikeouts.

Jo-Jo Reyes - 8.40
Jason Bergmann - 8.79
Wandy Rodriguez - 7.75
Manny Parra - 7.65
Randy Wolf - 7.65

---

Search Roto Authority

Custom Search

Roto Authority Mailing List

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Roto Authority Features

Recent Posts

Monthly Archives