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Stolen Bases
Running More
I have to admit that our little plate appearances per steal attempt stat is flawed, because it doesn't account for changes in a player's OBP or times on first base.
Baseball HQ uses a stat they call SBO, or Stolen Base Opportunity %. That is calculated as (SB+CS)/(singles + BB). That's a good one to look at too.
Anyway, here are the players who are running more this year, for one reason or another.
| NAME | PA/Att 08 | PA/Att 07 | Diff |
| Lance Berkman | 20.1 | 66.8 | -46.7 |
| Delmon Young | 20.5 | 52.4 | -31.9 |
| David DeJesus | 21.7 | 50.2 | -28.5 |
| Matt Holliday | 23.8 | 47.5 | -23.8 |
| Mark Ellis | 26.6 | 49.4 | -22.8 |
| Ray Durham | 27.0 | 44.0 | -17.0 |
| Alex Rios | 17.5 | 33.9 | -16.3 |
| Randy Winn | 21.8 | 36.3 | -14.5 |
| Chase Utley | 47.2 | 61.3 | -14.1 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 38.7 | 52.5 | -13.8 |
| Kelly Johnson | 30.0 | 43.4 | -13.4 |
| Tony Pena | 37.0 | 48.7 | -11.7 |
| Melvin Mora | 33.7 | 43.9 | -10.3 |
| Hunter Pence | 22.4 | 30.3 | -7.8 |
| Matt Kemp | 14.2 | 20.7 | -6.6 |
| B.J. Upton | 11.9 | 18.3 | -6.3 |
| Shannon Stewart | 38.8 | 45.0 | -6.3 |
| Joey Gathright | 9.1 | 15.4 | -6.2 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 10.3 | 16.4 | -6.1 |
| Ryan Theriot | 12.9 | 18.7 | -5.8 |
| Ian Kinsler | 17.1 | 22.6 | -5.5 |
| Rafael Furcal | 15.4 | 20.7 | -5.3 |
That Berkman has attempted 11 swipes in just 221 PAs is a surprising and welcome development. It's also nice to see disappointing hitters like Rios and Young running more to partially make up for it.
Not Running
I looked at all players who attempted 15 or more steals in 2007. Then I compared their plate appearances per attempt (lower is better) to see who has stopped running in '08. Here are the offenders:
| NAME | PA/Att 08 | PA/Att 07 | Diff |
| Mark Teahen | 98.5 | 33.8 | 64.7 |
| Alfredo Amezaga | 70.5 | 22.4 | 48.1 |
| Michael Young | 79.3 | 43.3 | 36.1 |
| Gary Sheffield | 54.3 | 22.0 | 32.4 |
| Ryan Braun | 55.0 | 24.6 | 30.4 |
| Akinori Iwamura | 57.8 | 28.0 | 29.8 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 54.3 | 24.7 | 29.7 |
| Gary Matthews Jr. | 55.5 | 26.3 | 29.2 |
| Melky Cabrera | 63.0 | 34.0 | 29.0 |
| Chris Young | 46.4 | 18.9 | 27.5 |
| Carlos Lee | 71.3 | 46.5 | 24.9 |
| Alex Gordon | 53.0 | 33.4 | 19.6 |
| Carlos Guillen | 48.0 | 30.0 | 18.0 |
| Derek Jeter | 48.5 | 31.0 | 17.5 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 42.3 | 25.3 | 17.0 |
| Eric Byrnes | 28.6 | 12.3 | 16.3 |
| Curtis Granderson | 41.3 | 25.0 | 16.3 |
| Bobby Abreu | 34.7 | 21.2 | 13.5 |
| Nate McLouth | 28.8 | 16.6 | 12.1 |
| Felipe Lopez | 27.0 | 20.3 | 6.7 |
| Johnny Damon | 25.6 | 20.2 | 5.5 |
| Russell Martin | 26.0 | 20.7 | 5.3 |
| Torii Hunter | 29.3 | 24.1 | 5.2 |
Why is this happening? Some players have stopped running due to injury, like Soriano. (By the way, I think it's time to demote him from second-round status). But then you've got a guy like Chris Young. He used to attempt a steal every 19 plate appearances, this year it's every 46. Can't blame his OBP, it's much improved this year.
Hanley's Stock Falls Slightly
This may not matter this year. But new Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez wants to see Hanley Ramirez exchange steals for homers in the long term.
Regarding whether Ramirez would steal 50 again, Gonzalez said, "We'll see." I have Ramirez swiping 44, but given Gonzalez's philosophy it wouldn't be a shock to see him swipe less than 40.
This probably doesn't change your draft strategy, but if you were on the fence over Reyes vs. Hanley vs. Wright maybe it helps you decide.
More On Chris Duffy
I last wrote about Chris Duffy on February 12th, mentioning that he could steal 30 bags if he gets 550 ABs. After reading the praise heaped on him in this article, my confidence in his ability and playing time has improved.
Jim Tracy loves the guy. It really looks like a foregone conclusion that the center field/leadoff job is Duffy's to lose. This is his age 26 season, and he's spent plenty of time in the minors. Despite his blazing speed, Duffy stole only 17 bases in 308 Triple A at-bats last year. He's not quite a high percentage basestealer, and he didn't do much in 39 games for the Pirates.
At this point Duffy looks like a .280-.290 hitter who would have a hard time not stealing 20 bases in a full season. But it seems that he's expected to be aggressive and utilize his speed, so 30 is entirely possible. Regardless, Duffy has little value to mixed leaguers except perhaps as a short-term injury replacement. NL-only folks should view him top 25 outfielder worthy of a double digit bid. In the best case scenario, Duffy becomes Randy Winn in a few years.
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