Stock Watch

Stock Watch: Buy & Sell Analysis

Last week's Stock Watch recommended picking up Derek Norris for his power potential as a second catcher, and Norris has lived up to the hype in his first week with Oakland by hitting .316 with a home run and five RBIs.  

Buy

• Andrew Cashner - After dominating Double-A while getting his arm stretched out with a 1.88 ERA and a 23/3 K/BB in 14 1/3 innings over three starts, Cashner had a solid first start in the Padres rotation Thursday night by striking out nine batters in 6 1/3 innings while allowing only three baserunners. In a home park that makes Clayton Richard a viable mixed-league option, Cashner could have significant value for the rest of the season if he can keep a strong strikeout rate while pitching out of the rotation.

• Ben Revere - Off fantasy radars after starting the season slow and getting sent to the minors, Revere is back in a big way with 11 steals and a .337 batting average in June.  This season, Revere is hitting more ground balls than in any previous year, and he has the highest ground ball-to-fly ball percentage of his career. Hitting out of the second spot in the Twins lineup, Revere should continue to have the green light to steal bases and should be targeted by owners looking for cheap speed.

• Ike Davis - Finally creeping past the Mendoza Line (and then dropping back below following yesterday's 0-for-4) after being slowed in Spring Training and perhaps the regular season with Valley Fever, Davis is heating up with five home runs and 20 RBIs in June. His season numbers are still poor enough that he can be acquired on the cheap. However, Davis' low .236 BABIP despite a career-high line drive percentage is a sign that things should turn around the remainder of the season.

• Tyler Moore - After hitting two home runs on June 13, Moore was quiet until going into Coors Field this week and hitting home runs in back to back games with five RBIs on the series. Moore is now up to a .339 batting average on the season and could be a nice waiver wire claim if he runs with the left field job in Washington.  He has earned a shot at regular playing time after clubbing 31 home runs in both 2010 and 2011 while working his way up the Nationals' minor league system. 

Sell

• Trevor Bauer - Despite posting excellent strikeout numbers and a low ERA in the minors this season, Bauer's 4.6 walks per nine innings mark is a red flag for his chances of enjoying immediate success in the Majors.  Bauer continued his wild ways by walking three batters in his four-inning debut. While Bauer's future is certainly bright, the 21-year old makes for an excellent sell candidate in re-draft leagues to an owner that is buying the rookie hype.  

• Wade Miley - The second Arizona starter on the sell list, Miley's incredible season numbers are buoyed by a HR/FB percentage of 4.8% and BABIP of .255.  Both of these numbers are significantly better than last season and when they even out Miley's rest of season ERA should approximate the 4.45 projected by ZiPS.  Although Miley's 1.79 walks per nine innings is impressive, beware that he had not approached this mark in a season throughout his major and minor league career.

• Tony Campana - While Anthony's Rizzo is the toast of Wrigleyville, his arrival has certainly not done Campana owners any favors as the Cubs have shifted David DeJesus to centerfield and taken away Campana's path to playing time.

• Bobby Parnell - With excellent numbers across the board on the season, Parnell has received a lot of hype while taking over the closer role for the injured Frank Francisco.  However, the Mets stuck with Francisco throughout his struggles earlier in the season and it is doubtful they would make Francisco a setup man after signing him to a two-year $12 million deal in the offseason. Sell high to an owner that believes Parnell may hold the closer job the rest of the season.

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Stock Watch: Buy & Sell Analysis

Last week's Stock Watch recommended buying Ryan Cook while there were rumblings of a closer committee in Oakland. In the past week, Cook did not give up a run in four appearances with two saves and a win. The window to buy low has most likely closed.

Buy

• Anthony Rizzo - Per Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune, the Cubs can promote Rizzo tomorrow while still delaying his free agency from 2017 to 2018. Expect the Cubs to do so in the near future as Rizzo has nothing left to prove in AAA, as he hits .360 with 23 home runs and 59 RBIs in 261 plate appearances. In shallow leagues where Rizzo is available on the waiver wire pick him up immediately. In other leagues, see if the owner stashing Rizzo has a need you can fill and get Rizzo before he is activated and the hype makes him unattainable. Rizzo should enjoy immediate success having learned some tough lessons in San Diego last year, and stepping into a Wrigley Field that plays like a hitter's paradise with the wind blowing out in the hot summer air.

• Jason Heyward - Quietly adding more of a running game this season with 10 steals (8 of which came in April), Heyward has been hot in June, hitting .351. Riding a modest seven-game hitting streak and with two home runs on Wednesday, Heyward has the ability to go on a tear and carry a fantasy team.  It is encouraging for Heyward's future success that his groundball rate is well down from last year while his line drive percentage is up, and for the first time in his career he is putting the ball in the air more than on the ground. 

• Miguel Montero - Finally coming out of a season-long funk, now is the time to buy Montero while his season stats still look poor.  In June, Montero has hit .302 with five home runs and 17 RBIs.  This is consistent with Montero's career in which April and May have been his worst hitting months. In the RotoAuthority League, I had a decision last week whether to deal Montero or MLB home run leader among catchers Jarrod Saltalamacchia - I decided to move Salty.

• Derek Norris / Salvador Perez - Staying with the catcher position, Norris and Perez are worth picking up in two-catcher mixed leagues of 12 or more teams.  Norris was called up to split the catching duties in Oakland but could run with the job given the struggles of Kurt Suzuki.  Norris was enjoying success in Triple-A with 8 home runs and 36 RBIs in 236 plate appearances.  Perez's debut this year was delayed by injury but remember he hit .331 with three HRs, 21 RBIs and 20 runs in only 158 plate appearances for Kansas City last season.

• Dillon Gee - Here's an unheralded starter whose 4.27 ERA does not reflect the skills he has displayed this season.  Gee has boosted his strikeout rate from 6.39 per nine innings in 2011 to 8.24 this year, while reducing his walks by 1.5 over the same nine innings.  This has resulted in a 3.22 SIERA despite a .292 BABIP that is well above his .270 mark from last year.  Gee is also inducing more groundballs this season, and his ERA should creep down when his 17.1% home run per fly ball percentage evens out to a number closer to the 11.1% mark he posted in 2011.

• Alex Cobb - Another under the radar starter that should be picked up where available on waivers. Cobb's true talent is shown more in his 3.11 SIERA and 3.24 FIP than his 3.82 ERA. Cobb has posted huge strikeout numbers in the minor leagues which gives hope that he can bump his 7.65 strikeouts per nine innings mark.

Sell

• Ryan Zimmerman - The Washington $100 million man has been nothing short of a total bust for fantasy owners this season.  Zimmerman is displaying no power as his ISO is an unsightly .090, and his home run per fly ball percentage is less than half his career rate.  Zimmerman's swinging strike percentage is higher than it has ever been in any full year of his career, and his contrate rate is lower than it has ever been in any full season of his career.  To make matters worse, Zimmerman's plate discipline has regressed as he is posting his worst BB/K rate since 2008.  This seems to be a lost season for Zimmerman that will be explained next Spring as the result of a nagging shoulder injury that required the off-season to heal.  Sell Zimmerman to other owners that view him as a "buy-low" opportunity.

• Carlos Marmol - Fresh off being labeled as a buy in this column when he was available on waiver wires as recently as last week, now that Marmol has the closer job back savvy owners will be looking to deal him to save-starved owners that were left without a chair in the year of the closer carousel. Marmol is a WHIP-nightmare while walking 10.53 (!) batters per nine innings this season, and the Cubs will be begging teams to take him off their hands where he might end up pitching the seventh or eighth innings on a contending team.

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Stock Watch: Buy & Sell Analysis

Last week's Stock Watch recommended Trevor Plouffe as a waiver wire add, and all he has done in the six games since is hit five homers with 10 RBIs. Here's hoping these recommendations work out as well:

Buy

• Matt Moore - Despite 54 strikeouts in 43 2/3 innings since May 1, Moore's season stats still are ugly with a 4.59 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.  However, his SIERA is down to 3.86 on the season and the best is yet to come with Moore in 2012.  A nice buy-low target from owners that are paying too much attention to his season ERA/WHIP numbers.

• Ivan Nova - His strikeout rate per nine innings has skyrocketed this season from 5.33 to 8.00, and he has collected eight wins pitching for the Yankees' powerhouse lineup.  A 3.53 SIERA gives hope that his 4.64 ERA will come down when his 16% HR per flyball ratio evens out closer to the 8.4% he had last season.

• Brandon Belt - Swinging a hot bat with home runs in three straight games (including in yesterday's start against a lefty).  Time to pick up Belt from the waiver wire and hope the ride continues. Aubrey Huff's injury should also provide more playing time for Belt.

• Brandon Moss - Another hot bat, Moss has four homers in the past three games and looks to be running away with the A's first-base job.  Moss has put up good power numbers in Triple-A the past three seasons, and it may now be transferring to the Majors after bouncing around three organizations.  Moss should be claimed off waivers.

• Ryan Raburn - Back with the Tigers and 2-for-3 in his first start. Raburn is a decent speculative add from the waiver wire for teams hurting at MI.

• Ryan Cook - Oakland claims to be using a closer-by-committee, but Cook converted both save opportunities in the last series against the Rockies, and Brian Fuentes continued his slide by giving up two more runs in relief yesterday.

• Tyler Clippard - I certainly missed in my projection for Henry Rodriguez, but I am again touting a non-Drew Storen Nationals closer as having the potential to run with the job.  Clippard was one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball last season and has been nothing short of spectacular since moving into the closer role. It's going to be tough for the Nationals to remove him from the job, even after Storen returns. Not a bad idea to pick up Clippard from an owner that believes he only has a few weeks left in the closer role.

• Casey Janssen - Sergio Santos suffered a setback in his rehab, which will extend Janssen's run as the Toronto closer. With Santos struggling earlier in the season and Toronto still near the .500 mark, we may not see Santos regain his closer spot until late in the season or next Spring.

Sell

• Alfonso Soriano - Leading MLB in home runs since mid-May (right at the time this column suggested you pick up Soriano from waiver wires), Soriano is the streakiest of hitters that will go just as ice cold as he has been red hot.  Soriano also has been hobbling around all season with word leaking that his knees are causing him all sorts of pain. Sell Soriano's hot streak to a power-starved owner that has starting pitching or stolen bases to spare.

• Jeremy Hellickson - Eight earned runs yesterday has pushed his ERA up to 3.45 on the season, and his 5.24 FIP indicates this number is likely to keep rising. Hellickson has managed to survive in the AL East with a K/BB well below 2, but savvy owners will be looking to trade him to an owner that overvalues Hellickson's fortunate ERA.

• Ricky Romero - Another AL East starter whose value is inflated by his sparkling numbers last season.  Romero is walking an unsightly 4.48 batters per nine innings this season while his strikeouts per nine innings are down from last season.  That is not a good combination, and owners thinking that Romero and his 4.15 ERA are a good buy-low trade target should think again. Romero's 4.79 FIP and 4.36 SIERA indicate that he is fortunate to have his ERA that low.

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Stock Watch: Buy & Sell Analysis

Last week's Stock Watch highlighted Paul Goldschmidt and Rajai Davis as buys that were available on many waiver wires.  Both players are now hot properties in fantasy baseball as they continued their excellent production over the past seven days.  

Buy

• Ian Kennedy - After a 21-win season, Kennedy's stock was over-hyped in the pre-season.  However, after a slow start to the season he looks like a nice buy-low candidate.  Kennedy's ERA is high at 3.93, but his strikeouts are up from last season and his 3.46 SIERA is right in line with his mark from last year.  Kennedy has pitched excellent in his last two starts including a zero run, 12-strikeout gem his last time out.  A good idea would be to obtain Kennedy for Chris Sale or Johan Santana if given the opportunity.  Both Sale and Santana are injury risks, with Sale already having been skipped once this year with a brief banishment to the bullpen and perhaps facing an innings limit.

• Aramis Ramirez - Slow starts are nothing new for Ramirez as April and May are by far his worst career months.  Slowed with a quad injury, now is the time to see if you can pry Ramirez away from another owner on the cheap.  Ramirez's career batting average in June is .301 (second best to .306 in August) and July has been his best month historically for home runs.

• Trevor Cahill - Surprisingly owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues, Cahill has overall solid numbers but has increased value in daily leagues where he can be streamed for road starts where he is rocking a 2.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

• Trevor Plouffe - Available on most waiver wires, Plouffe has hit 6 home runs since the beginning of May and qualifies in Yahoo leagues at 2B, 3B, SS and OF.  Plouffe's .176 BABIP has depressed his AVG but his 15 HRs and .313 AVG in 220 plates appearances in AAA last season shows he has decent upside for a multi-position waiver wire claim.

• Elian Herrera - 42, 31 and 33 stolen bases in the minors each of the last three seasons, Herrera is playing every day and may have taken the 3B job from Juan Uribe.  Decent source of speed off the waiver wire for teams needing stolen base help.

Sell

• Chris Capuano - Rocking a 2.82 ERA with 8 wins, now is the time to sell high on Capuano while he rides the wave of a .228 BABIP.  Capuano's walks are up and his HR/FB% is down from last season.  Expect a high 3's or low 4's ERA the remainder of the season - ZiPS projects a 4.31 ERA rest of season.

• Lance Lynn - Enjoying a whopping 9 wins already, Lynn is already approaching the total innings he threw in all of 2011 between the majors and minors.  Lynn has been solid all season with a SIERA in the mid-3's.  But, I am concerned about a reduction in his stuff as he blows past his innings pitched mark from last year.  The last time Lynn was a starter in the minors was 2010 when he finished the season in AAA with a 4.77 ERA in 164 innings.

• Kyle Lohse - A 5.08 ERA in May is likely a sign of things to come for Lohse, whose career ERAs for July, August and September are 5.02, 4.67 and 4.60 respectively.  Lohse's overall 2012 numbers still look good so see if you can include him in a larger deal to upgrade elsewhere on your roster.

• Huston Street - Back from the DL with a win in his first appearance, sell before Street has another injury and avoid the risk that he is dealt to a contender and moved to a set-up role.  I'm guessing the Padres learned their lesson last year in holding onto Heath Bell and then losing him to free agency.

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Stock Watch: Buy & Sell Analysis

Last week's Stock Watch recommended selling Brandon League, and the weekend after the article posted, League was removed as closer. Hopefully, you didn't own League in this season of the Closer Carousel.

Buy

• Cliff Lee - Posting the same elite numbers that we are accustomed to -- except with zero wins on the season. Lee has the second-best SIERA among qualifying starters at 2.64, and his groundball rate is up while his line-drive percentage is down compared to last year. See if you can upgrade your rotation by acquiring Lee from an owner who is underrating Lee based on his unlucky shortage of wins.

• A.J. Burnett - Sporting the 11th-best SIERA among qualifying starters at 3.11, Burnett's ERA is inflated by one horrific start. Take away the 12 earned runs Burnett gave up to the Cardinals on May 2, and his ERA would be a spectacular 1.52.

• R.A. Dickey - Quietly enjoying an excellent season with seven wins and a 3.06 ERA. Dickey's strikeouts per nine innings has skyrocketed this season which has resulted in a 3.18 SIERA. Dickey is a legitimate mixed-league starter despite not carrying much name recognition.

• Dexter Fowler - Hitting leadoff for the Rockies, Fowler is showing a nice power (eight home runs) and speed (5 stolen bases) combo. A hot streak has his batting average up to .282, yet his BABIP is actually lower than his career average. If Fowler can hold the leadoff position, he should be a huge source of runs, and while his homer pace will decrease, his power may continue to exceed his career norms as he enters the prime of his career.

• Paul Goldschmidt - Dropped in many 12-team mixed leagues after a slow start, Goldschmidt has been hot in May with a .314 batting average and homers in two of his past four games. Goldschmidt even will chip in a few stolen bases, so he should be claimed where available on waiver wires.

• Rajai Davis - Playing full time with the demotion of Eric Thames. Davis has big-time steal potential and has shown surprising pop this year.

• Justin Smoak - Has hit four home runs in his past six games, and has six home runs and 18 RBIs in May. Smoak has increased value in daily leagues where he can be benched at home (.188 average at home compared to .257 away), and should be claimed in leagues where he remains on the waiver wire after a slow start.

• Carlos Quentin - Hot to start the year after returning from injury, and his value will increase if he is traded to a contender with a better lineup and home park. In the meantime, Quentin will put up helpful power numbers hitting cleanup for the Padres.

Sell

• Ryan Vogelsong - Keeps enjoying his career resurgence with a 2.36 ERA. However, troubling signs abound as his K/BB ratio is only 1.77 and he is enjoying an 84% left-on-base percentage. Vogelsong's 4.37 SIERA is a warning sign to owners that the ride may not last long.

• Henderson Alvarez - Pitching in the AL East is a tough assignment for any starter, and Alvarez's 3.56 ERA is likely to spike in the near future. Alvarez K/BB ratio is an unsightly 1.19% and he is only striking out 2.60 batters per nine innings. His true skill set is reflected by a 4.58 SIERA and 5.49 FIP. Alvarez should not be rostered in 14-team mixed leagues.

• Jarrod Parker - Now is the time to sell Parker and his steller 2.88 ERA. Parker's K/BB ratio is 1.38 and he is only striking out 6.42 batters per nine innings. Parker is also unlikely to earn many wins pitching for a weak Oakland lineup. Parker's 4.84 SIERA is a warning sign that his ERA is likely at the lowest point it will be all season.

• Mark Trumbo - Rocking a .348 batting average that is not sustainable with a strikeout percentage over 20% and inflated .396 BABIP. ZiPS projects a .269 average for the remainder of the season. But, Trumbo's ISO is an excellent .284 and his power is for real, so target power-hungry owners by touting Trumbo's batting average.

• Matt Adams - Strong out of the gate with a .317 batting average, but Allen Craig's return will cut into his playing time when Adams has his first slump. See what owners around the league will give up for the hot prospect.

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Stock Watch: Buy & Sell Analysis

Last week's Stock Watch recommended Bud Norris as an under-the-radar starter, and Norris lived up to the recommendation with seven shutout innings and a win on Monday (his fourth straight start with a win).

Buy

• James McDonald - I listed McDonald as an underrated pitcher in the spring. In that same post of late-draft starters to target were Ryan Dempster, Jake Peavy and Chris Capuano. Waiting on drafting starters to take these four late in the draft would have made you the post-draft favorite to have the worst pitching rotation but would have resulted in the opposite. McDonald is throwing a slider on 18.5% of his pitches this season after never having thrown this pitch in his Major League career. He is also generating 9.9% swinging strikes, which is well above his career average. After carrying a high SIERA following his first few starts, this mark is down to 3.14 on the season. His 2.38 FIP also indicates a low ERA is sustainable. See if the McDonald owner in any of your leagues wants to "sell high".

• Brian McCann - His low BABIP of .241 has depressed his batting average despite a line-drive percentage of 20.3%, which is higher than his career mark. McCann has also missed games this week with an illness, which extends the window for owners to buy low.

• Gordon Beckham - Worth an add off waiver wires to MI or backup MI, as he has turned his season around in May, hitting five homer runs and 12 RBIs. His .218 BABIP is also well below his career mark of .280.

• Ernesto Frieri - The window to acquire Frieri on the cheap is closing fast, as he picked up the save on Wednesday in extra innings. Frieri has been lights out with the Angels and has not given up an earned run since the trade in early May. Last night, Frieri and Scott Downs were both warming up in the ninth inning of Dan Haren's shutout, so the closer role is still a time share.

• Carlos Marmol - Predictably, Rafael Dolis has been rocked recently and his hold on the closer job is more an indictment of the Cubs' bullpen than an earned position. Marmol is regaining his confidence and working his way back from a leg injury in the minor leagues, and I expect Marmol to regain the closer role very shortly after being activated. Stash Marmol on your DL or bench as the Cubs will want to increase Marmol's trade value by putting him back at closer.

• J.D. Martinez - Widely released when he cooled down from his fast start, Martinez is showing signs of life this week and should be picked up off waiver wires where available. Martinez has nearly tripled his walk rate this season, which is a sign of better plate discipline and good things to come.

• Jeff Francoeur - Another outfielder cut by many owners after struggling through the first six weeks of the season. Frenchy was 20/20 last season and is heating up as he hit two homers this week after a four hit game on Sunday.

Sell

• David Wright - Leads all hitters by a wide margin in BABIP at .470, compared to his career .344 mark. Despite the inflated .405 batting average, he only has five homers and four steals. ZiPS projects a .291 average with 13 homers and 14 swipes for the remainder of the season. Given Wright's .400-plus average and name recognition an owner should be able to deal him for a player that will provide superior value for the remainder of the season.

• Dee Gordon - Still held in high regard by fantasy owners after his fast start to the season, Gordon's performance does not live up to the hype. After stealing 10 bases in 87 April at-bats, Gordon only has two steals in 66 May at-bats. To make matters worse, the Dodgers demoted Gordon to the eighth spot in the lineup, which is death to steals in the National League. Deal Gordon to a team hungry for steals and then pick up Cliff Pennington or Everth Cabrera off waivers to take Gordon's spot.

• Brandon League - A free agent after the season, League is very likely to be dealt in July and may move to a seventh- or eight-inning role with a contender. League's walk rate has skyrocketed this season and he is sporting a poor 4.47 SIERA.

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Stock Watch: Buy & Sell Analysis

In last week's Stock Watch I recommended selling Brett Myers and Rafael Dolis, and both had rough outings this week. But, they are not in immediate danger of losing their closer roles and remain sell-high candidates since Myers still is sporting an excellent stat line and Dolis' leash as closer was extended by Carlos Marmol's trip to the DL.

Buy

• Alfonso Soriano - Dropped in many leagues after his slow start, Soriano has been heating up at the plate with home runs in two of his last three games. Eighty-degree weather is expected at Wrigley Field all weekend, and Soriano's bat should heat up along with it. Soriano will also be helped by Summer's shifting winds, which tend to blow out more frequently at Wrigley Field. Expect Soriano's dismal 5.7% HR/FB to creep up closer to the 14% he averaged last year as the season continues. Soriano is a good source of power that is available on many waiver wires.

• Todd Frazier - Hit two HRs on Wednesday and is playing every day for the Reds while Scott Rolen is on the DL. Frazier had 15 HRs and 17 SBs in 359 Triple-A plate appearances last season. Frazier hits in a favorable home ballpark and could provide a nice power/speed combination until Rolen returns.

• Bud Norris - Pitching for the Astros, Norris does not get the attention he deserves given his 8.94 K/9 rate and 3.58 ERA that is supported by a 3.34 SIERA and 3.61 FIP. Norris has also picked up four wins for the lowly Astros, and is a nice back-of-the-rotation source of strikeouts in 12-team mixed leagues. Norris' swinging strike percentage (11.7%) is the highest of his career. In the RotoAuthority League, I made the mistake of dropping Norris in mid-April after he went through a rough patch of starts. In Norris' last three starts, he has given up one earned run in 19 innings.

• Andy Dirks - Hitting second for the powerful Tigers lineup, and hitting .429 with 7 RBIs and 11 runs in May.

• Everth Cabrera - Recalled by the Padres to play SS, Cabrera had 15 SBs in Triple-A this season and could be a cheap source of speed from the waiver wire if he can get himself closer to the top of the Padres lineup from the seventh slot he occupied last night.

Sell

• John Danks - Feel free to drop Danks in 12-team mixed leagues, as his ugly 6.46 ERA is consistent with his poor performance this season. Danks' walks per nine innings (4.18) are up since last year and his strikeouts per nine innings (4.94) are way down. This tandem has resulted in a 5.15 SIERA. Danks' swinging strike percentage (7.2%) is also the lowest of his career.

• Ricky Romero - Following a season with a 2.92 ERA, Romero's ADP was 101.3 as he was the 25th highest drafted starter. Romero has not lived up to this lofty ranking with a 3.88 ERA and only 36 strikeouts in 53 1/3 innings. Yet, Romero's stats could be much worse as his walk rate is up compared to last season while his strikeout rate is down. Romero is sporting a 4.52 SIERA and a 4.60 FIP.

• Omar Infante - When Infante burst out of the gate with five early HRs, it was difficult to sell him since owners were leery of his production continuing. But, Infante has continued to rack up stats as he is hitting .325 with 6 HRs and 4 SBs. Owners may be able to obtain more in trade for Infante now as his production has continued far enough into the season to be taken seriously. Infante's power is a mirage as his 12.5% HR/FB rate is more than double his career average, and his home ballpark will not do him any favors. Infante will steal a few more bags with Ozzie Guillen running the Marlins crazy, but he has already matched his 2011 SB total and the last time he stole double digit bases was 2004.

• Rafael Furcal - Enjoying a monster season with a .367/2/17/28/7 slash line, Furcal's numbers are inflated by a .400 BABIP and fast start from the middle of the Cardinals lineup consistently knocking him in. Furcal has shown better plate discipline and increased his contact rate this season compared to 2011, but owners deep at MI should consider seeing what they can get for Furcal before a BABIP correction deflates his numbers and injuries take a toll on his older body. Furcal's plate appearances the past two seasons were 369 in 2011 and 428 in 2010.

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Stock Watch: Buy & Sell Analysis

In last week's Stock Watch, I recommended that owners also pick up Rafael Soriano in case the Yankees did not want to disturb David Robertson's excellent production in the setup role. The Yankees would not be the first team to bypass a superior pitcher for the closer role (see the Nationals with Tyler Clippard to start this season). Yesterday, Soriano picked up a save after Robertson had worked consecutive games and blown a save in spectacular fashion. Soriano is an excellent add for owners searching for saves on the waiver wire.

Buy

• Kyle Seager - Qualifies at shortstop in Yahoo leagues and has been hot in May with three home runs and 13 RBIs. Nice power and speed combo, and will continue to get at-bats with Chone Figgins benched.

• Peter Bourjos - Waived in many leagues after a poor start to the season and inability to get consistent at-bats following the promotion of Mike Trout. The Angels are rumored to be discussing a trade of Bourjos to the Nationals, where he would receive regular playing time and would attempt to prove the Angels wrong (see: Mike Napoli).

• Jason Hammel - Leads the AL and is fifth in MLB in SIERA at 2.75. Hammel pitches in the pitcher-unfriendly AL East, but his average fastball velocity compared to 2011 is up by .6 mph, while his average changeup is down .7 mph. These changes have resulted in a massive increase from 4.97 strikeouts per nine innings in 2011 to 8.84 in 2012. Meanwhile, his walks per nine innings have decreased from 3.59 to 2.56. Hammel is a different pitcher this year, and owners should look to acquire him from an owner that wants to "sell high".

• Max Scherzer - Pitched well in getting a win in Oakland last night, and his SIERA entering that start was only 3.48 compared to a 6.32 ERA. His ERA has been bloated by a .407 BABIP entering last night's start, but his swinging-strike percentage was actually up from 9.8% in 2011 to 12.3% in 2012.

• Allen Craig - Has been raking since coming back from the DL with 3 homers and 11 RBIs in only 31 plate appearances. With Lance Berkman returning from the DL shortly, the Cardinals will need to find Craig a position. If this position is second base, Craig will gain position eligibilty there in leagues using the standard 20 games played last season or five games played in current season. Craig already qualifies at the keystone in Yahoo leagues.

• Edward Mujica - Despite recording saves on May 3 and 6, the Marlins turned to Steve Cishek in a save opportunity on May 9. Cishek blew the save, and Mujica may see the next opportunity while Heath Bell works himself back into form.

• Aroldis Chapman – Sporting insane ratios of 0.00 ERA and 0.57 WHIP with 27 Ks in 15 2/3 IP, it may only be a matter of time before Chapman replaces the struggling Sean Marshall as closer.

• Wilton Lopez - Those with room on their bench should stash Lopez. He is pitching well enough that he will not hurt you when activated, and he should move into the closer's role when the Astros turn Brett Myers' hot start into a nice return from one of the many teams whose bullpen has been decimated by injury or poor performance.

• Addison Reed - Two saves and zero earned runs on the season. Although the White Sox announced Chris Sale as their closer, Sale had a MRI yesterday and was used in the 8th inning in his last appearance, while Reed later recorded the save.

• Jeff Samardzija - Dropped in many leagues after consecutive poor starts on April 13 and 19, Samardzija is back to dealing with a 3.03 ERA, 2.61 FIP and 3.10 SIERA. Samardzija is succeeding despite not being lucky with balls in play, as he is sporting a .305 BABIP. Wins may be hard to come by on a Cubs team with a poor offense and an even worse bullpen. But, Samardzija is still a good acquisition from skeptical owners.
  

Sell

• Brett Myers - Fast start should net a good return from owners that have lost saves in the year of the closer carousel. He's not guaranteed to close if he is traded, and I am skeptical he can keep his walks per nine innings at .84, which is far below his 2.96 career average.

• Rafael Dolis - Closing for the Cubs despite a 5.03 SIERA, Dolis is more smoke and mirrors than effective stopper, as shown by .63 K/BB ratio and 5.1 swinging strike rate. Dolis' 2.79 ERA is propped up by a lucky .183 BABIP. I expect Dolis to implode sooner rather than later, and the Cubs to turn back to Carlos Marmol to increase his trade value.

• Kyle Drabek - He's sporting a 3.34 ERA, but a high 5.36 walks per nine inning average show that Drabek is living on the edge. I am hesitant to roster AL East pitchers, particularly ones like Drabek with a 4.53 SIERA and 5.29 FIP.

• Derek Jeter - Rocking a .388 AVG that is the result of an inflated .413 BABIP. Jeter is unlikely to have rediscovered his power stroke at the age of 37, so I expect his 31.3 home run per flyball percentage to return to the levels of 2011 (7.0%) and 2010 (9.9%).

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Stock Watch: Buy & Sell Analysis

Last week's edition of Stock Watch recommended Pedro Alvarez as a buy candidate showing signs of a hot streak. Alvarez has certainly justified the buy this week and is now one of the hottest players in fantasy baseball. Hopefully some of these recommendations will also pay immediate dividends:

Buy

• Ernesto Frieri - Traded to the Angels and may find himself in the closer role in short order. Frieri has struck out 18 batters in 11 2/3 innings on the season with a 1.95 SIERA. Frieri also has closer experience as he saved 17 games in 2010 for the Padres' Triple-A affiliate with a 11.71 K/9 rate.

• Jonathan Broxton - Although widely doubted (including in this column), Broxton has been impressive in converting four straight saves and has a long leash as closer, with setup man Greg Holland on the DL. Owners should feel confident in Broxton's job security if targeting lower-tier closers in trade.

• David Robertson/Rafael Soriano - With the unfortunate news that Mariano Rivera is lost for the season with a torn ACL, owners are likely rushing to their waiver wires to pick up Rivera's replacement. Robertson was likely already taken in competitive leagues before the Rivera injury, but Soriano may still be available on many waiver wires. Although Soriano has allowed too many baserunners this season and pitched in the eighth inning yesterday, he may get a chance at closing if the Yankees don't want to disturb Robertson's lights-out work in a setup role.

• Jason Kipnis - Quietly having a monster season with 4 HRs, 17 RBIs, 15 runs, 5 steals and a .292 batting average. Kipnis got out of the gate slowly but has been tearing it up since. Kipnis does not carry much name-recognition, so he may be available for much less than his numbers indicate he is worth.

• Jed Lowrie - Streaky hitter is in the midst of a hot streak and should be owned until he cools off.

• Jarrod Dyson - Hitting leadoff for the Royals and playing every day while Lorenzo Cain remains on the DL. Dyson is available on most waiver wires and is a good temporary source of steals for owners short on speed.

• Tony Campana - More of a daily league recommendation, Campana is lightning in a bottle that is let loose whenever he reaches first base. Campana is mostly a one-category player, but he makes an excellent bench player in daily leagues where he can be inserted into a lineup on days when he is starting for the Cubs (who have indicated that Campana will start about 80% of games). At this point, it is surprising when Campana starts a game and does not steal a base.

• Jemile Weeks - Another excellent source of speed, Weeks' batting average is depressed by a .207 BABIP. Weeks is showing improved plate discipline compared to last year as his B/KK rate has increased from .34 to .67, and Weeks has nearly doubled his walk percentage from last season. The more walks Weeks draws the more opportunities he will have to steal bases on a SB-happy team like the A's.

Sell

• Bryan LaHair - Although LaHair has been one of the season's nicest surprises, his lofty batting average is not sustainable, as he's striking out once in every three plate appearances. So far he has enjoyed the good fortune of a .545 BABIP while reducing his ground ball percentage and increasing his line drive percentage. It is a good idea to see just how much a power-starved owner is willing to pay, and sell high before a BABIP correction and reduction in his over 35% HR/FB rate occurs.

• Danny Espinosa - Having a terrible season and dropped to sixth in the order by the Nationals. Espinosa may be out of a job -- in favor of Steve Lombardozzi -- when Ryan Zimmerman returns next week.

• Jered Weaver - Coming off a no-hitter, most owners would never think of entertaining trade offers for Weaver. But, Weaver is historically a better pitcher in the first half of the season, and he makes for a potential sell-high candidate for owners that drafted Weaver as their No. 2 starter and were fortunate enough to also have a very strong remainder of their rotation. Despite Weaver's success this season, his swinging strike percentage is lower than any other year he has been in the Majors. Also, his 4.2% HR/FB rate is likely to climb toward his 7.5% career rate, and his .236 BABIP is likely to rise toward his .275 career BABIP. When these events happen his exceptional ERA and WHIP will climb.

• Derek Lowe - 4.83 SIERA compared to his 2.27 ERA with an anemic 2.56 K/9. Hopefully another owner sees the 2.27 ERA and gives something of value in exchange for a guy who will likely be on all waiver wires in a month.

• Ted Lilly - Time to see what Lilly can get you in trade since his value should be very high given his 1.38 ERA. But, Lilly's BB/9 has steadily increased from 2.04 (2010) to 2.38 (2011) to 3.12 (2012). Meanwhile, Lilly's K/9 has trended the opposite direction from 7.71 (2010) to 7.38 (2011) to 5.19 (2012). Lilly pitches in a favorable stadium with a team that is scoring lots of runs so he should not be given away, but a savvy owner will be pushing the 1.38 ERA on unsuspecting owners.

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Stock Watch: Buy & Sell Analysis

Last week's edition of Stock Watch recommended buying Ryan Zimmerman, but in the last week Zimmerman has come down with a shoulder injury and appears headed for the disabled list. If you own Zimmerman, a back-dated DL trip is probably the best scenario to avoid a re-occuring long-term injury. Let's hope these recommendations have a better result:

Buy

• Henry Rodriguez - H-Rod is dealing, and in his last appearance, the Padres' announcers were surprised at his consistent 100-mph heat and, as they called it, a "Nintendo slider." Davey Johnson told the Nationals' announcers that H-Rod would have been used had a save scenario existed in Wednesday's game following his save on Tuesday. Also, H-Rod was warming up in the top of the ninth inning yesterday to come into a save opportunity had the Nationals taken the lead. At this point, if Brad Lidge gets another save opportunity, Nationals fans may revolt. There is no guarantee that Drew Storen comes back from elbow surgery this season, and it is not beyond the realm of possiblity that H-Rod ends the season as a top five closer. Buy on the cheap while you have the opportunity.

• Javy Guerra - When other owners are zigging, you should be zagging. Following Guerra's blown save on Wednesday, many owners are looking to dump. But, Don Mattingly reaffirmed Guerra as the closer on Thursday. Also, Guerra's loss on Tuesday was caused by Matt Kemp not making a catchable play in center field, and on Wednesday, Guerra was singled to death by a very good Braves lineup. I like Guerra to have a decent amount of leash still as the closer given his success last year and excellent pitching before the Braves series, and I would be looking to get him when his value is far down. Guerra also showed the moxie of a closer by taking a wicked line drive off his chin on Wednesday and staying in the save situation.

• Matt Holliday - His .210 BABIP is over 100 points below his BABIP for every season he has been in the Majors, resulting in a .205 batting average and a drop in perceived value. Strangely, his strikeouts are up even though his swinging strike rate is at 9.5%, which is below his 10.8% career average. But, his lowest career batting average by month is April, and last April he only hit two home runs.

• Brennan Boesch - Hitting second for Detroit is one of the best hitting slots in the Majors, and a .228 BABIP has driven his average just above the Mendoza Line. His groundball rate has spiked this year, and he has not been patient enough at the plate to work counts into good hitting situations as shown by his horrible 1.3% walk rate. Still, he has two home runs in the past four games, and you should jump on the chance to acquire him if an impatient owner is ready to cut bait.

• Chris Davis - He's ripped home runs in back-to-back games and could be entering a hot streak. Davis is an excellent power source with multi-position eligibility that is available on many waiver wires.

• Pedro Alvarez - Alvarez is another power source who is heating up -- also with home runs in back-to-back games -- and is widely available on waiver wires. It may be tough for owners burned by him last year to click "add," but he is a good speculative buy given his immense potential.

• Jarrod Parker - He turned in a solid first start and has a very high upside. He's more valuable in daily leagues, where he can be benched for away games against tough offenses.

• Tommy Milone - ZiPs calls for a 4.09 ERA from Milone for the rest of the season, but those owners in daily leagues with deep benches can beat that projection by at least a half-run by only starting Milone at home or in favorable road matchups. He's available on the waiver wire despite an excellent start to the season based on low strikeout rates and lack of name recognition.

• Chris Sale - A 3.09 SIERA, 2.83 FIP and 9.00 K/9 show his good start is for real.

• Neil Walker - His strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate are down from last season, and his .260 BABIP is dragging down his batting average.  Pick up Walker on waiver wires where impatient owners pulled the plug, or do not hesitate to grab him as a throw-in to complete a trade.

• Marco Estrada - Available on most waiver wires in 12- and 14-team mixed leagues, Estrada has a 13.09 K/9 rate this season and is in the rotation -- and pitching against pathetic NL Central lineups -- following the injury to Chris Narveson. Estrada's SIERA was 3.29 last year and is currently at 1.70 on the young season. It will be interesting to see if he can carry this success as a starter, but he's worth a speculative add off the waiver wire to find out.

Sell

• Kirk Nieuwenhuis - He's playing every day with injuries to Andres Torres and Jason Bay, but his average is inflated with a .429 BABIP and is not sustainable while striking out nearly 30% of his plate appearances.

• David Freese - The .339 average is carried by a .425 BABIP despite his line drive rate decreasing from last season. Also, his BB rate is down compared to last year, while his strikeout rate is up. His strong start to the season has me selling high before another injury happens, particularly if he were my second third baseman leaving the draft.

• Ubaldo Jimenez - The right-hander is walking more batters on the season than he is striking out, resulting in an ugly 5.60 SIERA, and his fastball is averaging less than 93 mph on the season (compared to 96.57 in 2010). He's OK to cut in 10-team mixed leagues and to bench in 12-team mixers.

• James McDonald - He's enjoying a fast start, but keep your expectations in check, as his SIERA is 4.73, while his swinging strike rate of 6.6% is way below his career average. Plus, wins are tough to come by on the Pirates.

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