Starters

Starting Pitcher Rankings

The wait is over!  Our starting pitcher rankings are here.  Average draft round from Mock Draft Central is in parentheses.  I've been using MDC data because it's easy to work with, but we'll have ADP data from Yahoo, ESPN, and CBS soon.

1. Tim Lincecum (2) - $37.96
2. Roy Halladay (2) - $37.18
3. C.C. Sabathia (5) - $31.21
4. Justin Verlander (6) - $29.63
5. Felix Hernandez (3) - $29.51
6. Dan Haren (5) - $29.13
7. Clayton Kershaw (5) - $27.59
8. Jon Lester (4) - $27.36
9. Zack Greinke (5) - $27.16
10. Mat Latos (7) - $27.15
11. Jered Weaver (5) - $25.84
12. Cliff Lee (4) - $25.27
13. Chris Carpenter (9) - $24.19
14. Max Scherzer (9) - $23.98
15. Cole Hamels (6) - $23.85
16. Matt Cain (8) - $23.58
17. Ubaldo Jimenez (4) - $23.33
18. Josh Johnson (7) - $23.23
19. Roy Oswalt (9) - $23.16
20. Tommy Hanson (7) - $22.16
21. Yovani Gallardo (6) - $21.11
22. David Price (6) - $20.83
23. Jeremy Hellickson (15) - $17.80
24. Colby Lewis (10) - $17.26
25. Ted Lilly (20) - $17.21
26. Chad Billingsley (8) - $17.16
27. Javier Vazquez (16) - $16.48
28. Dan Hudson (12) - $15.78
29. Francisco Liriano (7) - $15.44
30. Phil Hughes (14) - $15.34
31. C.J. Wilson (19) - $14.91
32. Shaun Marcum (10) - $14.91
33. Clay Buchholz (9) - $14.77
34. Wandy Rodriguez (11) - $14.74
35. Jonathan Sanchez (14) - $14.74
36. Ian Kennedy (21) - $14.43
37. Ricky Nolasco (16) - $14.36
38. Josh Beckett (15) - $14.21
39. John Danks (9) - $13.56
40. Tim Hudson (13) - $13.41
41. Gio Gonzalez (16) - $13.05
42. Ryan Dempster (8) - $12.67
43. Jake Peavy (33) - $12.11
44. Brett Anderson (14) - $11.95
45. Brett Myers (14) - $11.89
46. James Shields (15) - $11.71
47. Hiroki Kuroda (16) - $11.13
48. Madison Bumgarner (13) - $10.97
49. Brandon Morrow (11) - $10.61
50. Matt Garza (10) - $10.55
51. Brandon Webb (31) - $10.36
52. Ervin Santana (21) - $9.82
53. John Lackey (15) - $9.81
54. Edinson Volquez (29) - $9.64
55. Carlos Zambrano (27) - $8.89
56. Travis Wood (29) - $8.30
57. Brian Matusz (23) - $8.27
58. Jaime Garcia (21) - $7.85
59. Trevor Cahill (8) - $7.61
60. Bronson Arroyo (31) - $7.60
61. Jhoulys Chacin (26) - $7.41
62. Johnny Cueto (27) - $6.90
63. Jorge de la Rosa (17) - $6.58
64. Anibal Sanchez (27) - $6.34
65. Gavin Floyd (13) - $6.24
66. Jordan Zimmermann (18) - $6.19
67. Daisuke Matsuzaka (34) - $6.00
68. Dallas Braden (33) - $5.96
69. Scott Baker (19) - $5.27
70. Kevin Slowey (21) - $5.24
71. Mike Minor (25) - $5.22
72. Randy Wolf (32) - $5.01
73. James McDonald (31) - $4.33
74. Jeff Niemann (33) - $4.14
75. Jair Jurrjens (16) - $3.88
76. Phil Coke (Not drafted) - $3.76
77. Joel Pineiro (Not drafted) - $3.34
78. Ricky Romero (14) - $3.14
79. A.J. Burnett (30) - $2.91
80. Brett Cecil (34) - $2.70
81. Wade Davis (30) - $2.62
82. Derek Lowe (33) - $2.38
83. Carl Pavano (30) - $2.36
84. Clayton Richard (32) - $2.34
85. Jonathon Niese (22) - $2.07
86. Chris Capuano (Not drafted) - $1.69
87. Edwin Jackson (16) - $1.09
88. Jake Westbrook (33) - $1.09
89. Derek Holland (23) - $1.07
90. Brandon McCarthy (Not drafted) - $1.00
91. Jeremy Guthrie (Not drafted) - $0.83
92. Randy Wells (26) - $0.65
93. Barry Zito (Not drafted) - $0.64
94. Kyle Drabek (33) - $0.49
95. Justin Duchscherer (Not drafted) - $0.16
96. Justin Masterson (33) - $0.01

I've projected 180-200 innings for a lot of guys, because I can't predict exactly who will get hurt.  This looks like a very deep group.  If you were to draft hitters for your first eight picks and assembled a staff of Scherzer, Oswalt, Hellickson, Lewis, Lilly, and Vazquez, you'd be in good shape.  There are probably a dozen additional starters I'd be comfortable mixing and matching in there if you're the type who waits on starting pitching.

A few who have the stuff to outpitch their projections: Jackson, Buchholz, Cueto, Matusz, Davis, Zimmermann, Holland, Morrow...the list goes on.  At the end of the draft you definitely want to take a kid with upside and a rotation spot over someone like Westbrook.

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Cherry-Picking With Bud Norris

Time to do a little cherry-picking, slicing up a player's stats to show his potential upside.  Here's Astros starter Bud Norris in 13 starts from May 13th through August 19th:

4.48 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 in 80 1/3 innings

These numbers are intriguing, as Norris' biggest wart from 2010 was his 4.5 BB/9.  Over this cherry-picked sample at least, he was able to limit the walks.  Norris averages 93.6 mph on his fastball, and is a cheap strikeout source who is currently being drafted in the 39th round (so, not at all in most mixed leagues). 

One cause for concern was bursitis and biceps tendinitis that cropped up in late May.  Norris was already on a rehab assignment by June 7th, so the Astros may have just been playing it safe.  There's also the issue of Norris' 6.1 BB/9 over his final eight starts.  But hey, that's why you can snag him for a bench spot.

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A Look At Jeremy Hellickson

Early mock drafts have Rays righty Jeremy Hellickson going in the 16th round on average.  Is this a chance for big profit in mixed leagues?

Hellickson, just 24 in April, cruised at Triple-A this year with a 2.45 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 0.4 HR/9 in 117 2/3 innings.  The effort earned him Minor League Player of the Year honors from Baseball America.  When the Rays gave him an overdue look, he was excellent in 36 1/3 innings.  The only concern in that small sample was a 49.5% flyball rate, which would have ranked third-highest in baseball in 2010 if maintained over 150+ innings.

Projection-wise, ZiPS calls for a 3.58 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 0.73 HR/9 from Hellickson in 2011.  Baseball HQ sees a 3.78 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 1.03 HR/9.  As you'd expect, Hellickson's WHIP is below 1.30 in both projections.  Given Hellickson's flyball rate in his big league trial, I lean toward HQ's HR/9 and ERA projections.

From a scouting standpoint, Hellickson draws tons of praise.  BA says he has a "dynamic repertoire, throws four pitches for strikes, and has outstanding fastball command."  They see him as the team's No. 2 or 3 starter before long.

Hellickson's innings will go a long way toward determining his value.  With the Rays trading Matt Garza, he's now penciled into the starting five.  Last year's 155 2/3 pro innings was a career-high for Hellickson, so perhaps the Rays will be inclined to keep him under 190.

I can see Hellickson ranking around 25th among fantasy starters, so even if you grab him around the 12th round you should be happy with the results.  Pitchers don't have a ton of control over their hits allowed or win total, so if he does well there he'll jump up the rankings.

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AL To NL Starting Pitchers

Like many people, I believe it's easier to pitch in the National League than the American.  The following pitchers will move to the NL for 2011:

• Cliff Lee, Phillies.  Lee is currently a fourth-round pick.  He spent all of 2010 in the AL and flourished; he'd logged 12 regular season starts in the NL with the Phillies in '09.  That's when he had his career-best strikeout rate at 8.4 per nine, so we could see a similar boost in 2011.  Keep in mind that if Lee finds his way back to 33 regular season starts he could reach 240 innings.
• Zack Greinke, Brewers.  He's a fifth-round pick at this time as fantasy leaguers prepare to see what Greinke can do in the NL for the first time, with a powerful offense behind him and the motivation of contention.
• Matt Garza, Cubs.  Garza is going in the ninth round, which isn't much of an added NL boost.  If he pairs his '09 strikeout rate and '10 walk rate and manages to keep the ball in the yard, he could post a huge year.
• Javier Vazquez, Marlins.  The ninth round is pretty early for Vazquez, he admittedly dominated in his last NL stint.  I've always got interest in Vazquez, but he may have shaken his perennial undervalued tag if that's where he's getting drafted.  I'd want him a few rounds later given his intense struggles last year.
• Shaun Marcum, Brewers.  I suppose a lack of name value is keeping Marcum in the 14th round.  You're getting a strong WHIP and sufficient Ks; he's a major sleeper unless he climbs to a much earlier spot.
• Dan Hudson, Diamondbacks.  Hudson came to the NL in July of last year and looked very good in 11 starts for Arizona.  As an 18th round pick you're not risking much.
• Jake Westbrook, Cardinals.  He also moved to the NL at the trade deadline, and at 6.6 per nine posted one of the better K rates of his career.  If that holds you might be able to squeeze 160 Ks out of the groundballer.
• Ryan Rowland-Smith, Astros and Dustin Moseley, Padres.  A very low strikeout pair that even the NL can't save for fantasy.

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Inflated HR/Flyball Rates

About nine fantasy-relevant starting pitchers had home run per flyball rates of 13% or greater this year.  Most likely, we can expect these rates to fall in 2011, resulting in fewer home runs allowed if all else is equal.

• Jorge de la Rosa, 15.8%.  A guy with his groundball rate shouldn't have a 1.11 HR/9.  He'll probably be out of Coors in 2011; that'll help too.  He'll get you Ks, but still needs to trim walks to be a really useful fantasy pitcher.
• Kevin Correia, 14.8%.  Had sneakily decent peripherals, outside of his walk rate.  He won't be in San Diego in 2011, however.  Correia doesn't need to be drafted in mixed leagues, but you might want to monitor him.
• Manny Parra, 14.8%.  His career HR/flyball and BABIP are both pretty high, and it's been over 450 innings now.  He's something of a poor man's De La Rosa.
• Josh Beckett, 14.2%.  Burned by BABIP and HR/flyball, he's a sleeper if his control returns in 2011 and he stays healthy.
• Javier Vazquez, 14.0%.  He didn't have the typical Vazquez velocity or strong peripherals this time.  Worth speculating on, but only late.
• James Shields, 13.8%.  Strong K/BB, but burned by BABIP and HR/flyball.  I'd love to see him in the NL.
• Mike Leake, 13.2%.  Gets grounders, so he shouldn't be homer-prone.  His peripherals need some work but he did skip the minors.
• Derek Lowe, 13.1%.  He and Tim Hudson were the league's top groundballers, yet their HR rates were higher than they should have been.  Lowe has his uses at the back end of a mixed league rotation and was really sharp in the second half.
• Tim Hudson, 13.1%.  This might be countered by a rising BABIP.  I can see a sub-4.00 ERA in 2011, but his value is limited by his lack of Ks.

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Assessing Ervin Santana

Ervin Santana rewarded those who drafted him in the 19th round or picked him up off the waiver wire this season, posting a 3.92 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 169 strikeouts, and 17 wins over 222.6 innings.  It was a far cry from '09, when Santana posted a 5.03 ERA and missed a chunk of the season with an elbow strain.

How should you handle Santana, heading into 2011 drafts?  This wasn't a repeat of his '08 season, when he posted a brilliant 3.49 ERA (3.12 SIERA) and 1.12 WHIP with 214 Ks.  This time Santana had a 4.29 SIERA, 6.83 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, and 1.09 HR/9.  Those are not bad peripherals, but they suggest he belongs at the back end of a mixed league rotation.  Also, he was throwing a 94.4 mph average fastball in '08 and was at 92.5 in '10.

Don't forget that elbow issue, which makes you wonder if he can log anything close to 222.6 innings again.  If you're getting Santana around the 15th round, that works, but don't be too aggressive on him.

We don't have SIERA by month but we do have xFIP, courtesy of FanGraphs.  Santana never had an xFIP below 3.97 in any month, and his strikeout rate dipped below 6.0 in the last two.  Hard to say if that's a trend, but he could fall outside the realm of mixed league usefulness in 2011 if so.

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The Next David Price

Rays lefty David Price made 23 starts in 2009 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.35 WHIP after starting the season at Triple A.  This year he broke out, posting a 2.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 19 wins, and 188 strikeouts.  He was drafted in the 16th round on average.  How can we identify the next Price?  Before this season, here's what we knew about Price:

• First overall pick in 2007.
• Threw hard for a lefty, averaging 92.9 on his fastball.
• Control needed work and his strikeout rate wasn't amazing, but both rates were OK.
• Nothing special about his ERA or WHIP either.
• Doesn't play for a big-market team.

Can we find anyone similar heading into 2011 drafts?

• Pitchers with big league experience who were drafted in the first round in 2006-10: David Huff, Andrew Miller, Adam Ottavino, Ian Kennedy, Kyle Drabek, Max Scherzer, Brandon Morrow, Brad Lincoln, Luke Hochevar, Brett Cecil, Madison Bumgarner, Rick Porcello, Tommy Hunter, Andrew Cashner, Mike Minor, Mike Leake, and Chris Sale.  Consider that our field. 
• Throws hard: Ottavino, Drabek, Scherzer, Morrow, Hochevar, Cashner, Minor, and Sale.  I made an exception for Minor, who was throwing harder before he reached the bigs.  And I'm not saying those eliminated are without value; they're just not the next Price.
• Acceptable walk and strikeout rates in 2010 in the Majors: Scherzer, Morrow, Hochevar, Minor, and Sale.
• Unimpressive ERA/WHIP: Minor, Hochevar, and Morrow.  None of the the three play for big market, extra popular teams.

Morrow we discussed yesterday; he might go a bit before the 16th round.  Hochevar and Minor should be drafted pretty late.

Hochevar has tossed some brilliant games over the last few years - 22 strikeouts and zero walks in consecutive 2009 starts, a 10 K effort this year.  He also had three starts this year with 7+ Ks and 2 or fewer walks.  However, he was limited to 108 pro innings with an elbow sprain.  He's the type of guy you might not have to draft but should monitor.

Minor is very interesting.  His strikeout and walk rates were strong - 9.5 and 2.4 in 40.6 innings in the Majors and 10.9 and 3.4 in 120.3 minor league frames.  He was done in by a .396 BABIP in the bigs.  SIERA puts him at 3.29 as opposed to his 5.98 ERA.

What have we learned?  There are always about 25 intriguing young pitchers each year, but Mike Minor is our best bet to be the David Price of 2011.

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A Look At Brandon Morrow

Brandon Morrow is one of the more intriguing starters for 2011 fantasy drafts.  Let's take an in-depth look at the 26-year-old righty.

The Pros

• Among those with at least 100 innings pitched, Morrow ranked first in baseball by a longshot with a 10.95 K/9.  Tim Lincecum was next at 9.79.  Morrow struck out eight or more hitters in half his starts, including a 17-K gem.  If he reaches 200 innings, he could whiff 240.
• Morrow is difficult to hit, with 7.8 per nine allowed in his career.  He posted a .348 BABIP this year (almost certain to come down) but still allowed only 8.4 hits per nine because batters put so few balls in play against him.
• He's a former first-round pick who was jerked around before being traded to the Blue Jays, so he might now just be settling in.
• His average fastball velocity was a solid 93.4 this year. 
• Morrow's ERA was 4.49, but his SIERA was 3.15.  The casual fantasy player may not realize that he's in line for a much lower ERA even if his skills remain the same.

The Cons

• Due to injuries and time spent as a reliever, Morrow has never topped this year's 146.3 innings in a pro season.
• He's inefficient.  Morrow's 17.2 pitches per inning figure this year was the 10th-worst in baseball among those with 100 innings.  He averaged 5.63 innings per start, which could limit wins.
• I expect his WHIP to come down from 1.38 because of even fewer hits allowed.  But his 4.1 BB/9 was a career-best, and that's still a WHIP-damaging control rate.  Silver lining using arbitrary endpoints: his BB/9 was 3.0 over 14 starts made in June, July, and August.
• He pitches in the AL East.

In trying to predict where Morrow might be drafted, Clayton Kershaw is a decent comparable.  He too was coming off a low-inning, high walk campaign, and he was drafted in the eighth round before this season.  On the flip side he didn't come with injury or American League concerns and he's really tough to hit.  Jonathan Sanchez is also similar, and he was drafted in the 19th.  I'm thinking rounds 13-15 for Morrow in 2011.  It's a solid gamble.

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8 Pitchers Whose WHIPs Should Fall Next Year

We still like pointing out BABIP anomalies, call us old-fashioned.  Here are a few to watch for 2011 on the high side.

• James Shields - .354 BABIP.  I was going to do a post on how Shields is the new Javier Vazquez, always underperforming in ERA compared to his peripherals.  But then I realized there really isn't any such trend.  SIERA says 3.57 for Shields this year, way below his actual 5.18 ERA.  His 1.46 WHIP should scare off bidders as well.  He should be the best 187-strikeout bargain around in 2011 drafts, perhaps rounds 13-16.
• Manny Parra - .352 BABIP.  One of the hardest-throwing lefty starters, Parra will probably be tendered a contract by the Brewers on the strength of his 9.52 K/9.  SIERA says 3.82 as opposed to his 5.02 ERA, but Parra's control is an issue.  So while his WHIP will come down from 1.62, it still won't be good.
• Josh Beckett - .349 BABIP.  He had a 3.84 SIERA against a scary 5.78 ERA and an uncharacteristic 1.54 WHIP.  There's no reason we can't get the Beckett of '09 next year.  His poor season should push him toward the 10th round.
• Brandon Morrow - .348 BABIP.  He whiffed 178 in just 146.3 innings, but still had a 1.38 WHIP.  His walk rate will keep that WHIP at an unhelpful level, but his 8.36 hits per nine rate could actually come down.  Certainly an intriguing name for 2011 drafts, with his 17-strikeout one-hitter fresh in our minds.
• Zach Duke - .347 BABIP.  A 4.58 SIERA says he could have some uses in real baseball for a new club, but he's not a mixed league option.
• Aaron Harang - .346 BABIP.  His SIERA was only 4.44; Harang is definitely slipping.  Even if his WHIP comes down from 1.59 it will still hurt.  In the right ballpark, very late in the draft, I'd still consider him.
• Yovani Gallardo - .340 BABIP.  He cut down on the walks but still had a career-worst 1.37 WHIP.  On the plus side he struck out 200 for the second year in a row.  Maybe next year he puts it all together and takes a leap in value.  Sound investment around the 8th round.
• Francisco Liriano - .340 BABIP.  His 1.26 WHIP could have been even lower.  His 3.02 SIERA against his 3.62 ERA shows there's room for more here.  However, Liriano won't be drafted in the 19th round on average this time around.
• Honorable mentions to Jason Hammel (.337) and Jonathon Niese (.335).

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Lilly Remains With Dodgers

Good news for fantasy leaguers, as lefty Ted Lilly inked a three-year deal with the Dodgers.  Lilly has found the National League to his liking since 2007, trimming his walk rate significantly.  Only a handful of starting pitchers had an average fastball velocity below Lilly's 86.7 mph this year.  Unlike Mark Buehrle, Livan Hernandez, and others, Lilly is able to deceive his way to a strikeout rate near 8.0 per nine typically.

Lilly's wart is his groundball rate, which at 29.5% was the second-worst in baseball this year behind Kevin Slowey.  Tons of flyballs means frequent home runs; fortunately, they come without men on base given Lilly's control and apparent ability to prevent batted balls from falling for hits.  Dodger Stadium has a reputation as a pitcher-friendly place, though this year and in '07 it actually inflated home runs according to ESPN's park factors.  Lilly had a 1.35 HR/9 in 46.6 Dodger Stadium innings this year, which is around what we've come to expect from him.

Lilly had a sparkling 2.96 SIERA in 76.6 innings for the Dodgers this year, with a 4.14 mark in 117 Cubs frames.  His past Cubs' SIERAs suggest you should look for something in the 3.80 range going forward.  Lilly turns 35 in January, and there is health risk.  He missed most of April this year due to minor shoulder surgery, and has a history of shoulder problems from his American League days.

Lilly isn't an exciting pitcher, but he still gives you 165 Ks and a strong WHIP.  Last year he was drafted in the 16th round on average, and he should be in the same bargain range in 2011.

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