Starters

A Look At Brandon Morrow

Brandon Morrow is one of the more intriguing starters for 2011 fantasy drafts.  Let's take an in-depth look at the 26-year-old righty.

The Pros

• Among those with at least 100 innings pitched, Morrow ranked first in baseball by a longshot with a 10.95 K/9.  Tim Lincecum was next at 9.79.  Morrow struck out eight or more hitters in half his starts, including a 17-K gem.  If he reaches 200 innings, he could whiff 240.
• Morrow is difficult to hit, with 7.8 per nine allowed in his career.  He posted a .348 BABIP this year (almost certain to come down) but still allowed only 8.4 hits per nine because batters put so few balls in play against him.
• He's a former first-round pick who was jerked around before being traded to the Blue Jays, so he might now just be settling in.
• His average fastball velocity was a solid 93.4 this year. 
• Morrow's ERA was 4.49, but his SIERA was 3.15.  The casual fantasy player may not realize that he's in line for a much lower ERA even if his skills remain the same.

The Cons

• Due to injuries and time spent as a reliever, Morrow has never topped this year's 146.3 innings in a pro season.
• He's inefficient.  Morrow's 17.2 pitches per inning figure this year was the 10th-worst in baseball among those with 100 innings.  He averaged 5.63 innings per start, which could limit wins.
• I expect his WHIP to come down from 1.38 because of even fewer hits allowed.  But his 4.1 BB/9 was a career-best, and that's still a WHIP-damaging control rate.  Silver lining using arbitrary endpoints: his BB/9 was 3.0 over 14 starts made in June, July, and August.
• He pitches in the AL East.

In trying to predict where Morrow might be drafted, Clayton Kershaw is a decent comparable.  He too was coming off a low-inning, high walk campaign, and he was drafted in the eighth round before this season.  On the flip side he didn't come with injury or American League concerns and he's really tough to hit.  Jonathan Sanchez is also similar, and he was drafted in the 19th.  I'm thinking rounds 13-15 for Morrow in 2011.  It's a solid gamble.

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8 Pitchers Whose WHIPs Should Fall Next Year

We still like pointing out BABIP anomalies, call us old-fashioned.  Here are a few to watch for 2011 on the high side.

• James Shields - .354 BABIP.  I was going to do a post on how Shields is the new Javier Vazquez, always underperforming in ERA compared to his peripherals.  But then I realized there really isn't any such trend.  SIERA says 3.57 for Shields this year, way below his actual 5.18 ERA.  His 1.46 WHIP should scare off bidders as well.  He should be the best 187-strikeout bargain around in 2011 drafts, perhaps rounds 13-16.
• Manny Parra - .352 BABIP.  One of the hardest-throwing lefty starters, Parra will probably be tendered a contract by the Brewers on the strength of his 9.52 K/9.  SIERA says 3.82 as opposed to his 5.02 ERA, but Parra's control is an issue.  So while his WHIP will come down from 1.62, it still won't be good.
• Josh Beckett - .349 BABIP.  He had a 3.84 SIERA against a scary 5.78 ERA and an uncharacteristic 1.54 WHIP.  There's no reason we can't get the Beckett of '09 next year.  His poor season should push him toward the 10th round.
• Brandon Morrow - .348 BABIP.  He whiffed 178 in just 146.3 innings, but still had a 1.38 WHIP.  His walk rate will keep that WHIP at an unhelpful level, but his 8.36 hits per nine rate could actually come down.  Certainly an intriguing name for 2011 drafts, with his 17-strikeout one-hitter fresh in our minds.
• Zach Duke - .347 BABIP.  A 4.58 SIERA says he could have some uses in real baseball for a new club, but he's not a mixed league option.
• Aaron Harang - .346 BABIP.  His SIERA was only 4.44; Harang is definitely slipping.  Even if his WHIP comes down from 1.59 it will still hurt.  In the right ballpark, very late in the draft, I'd still consider him.
• Yovani Gallardo - .340 BABIP.  He cut down on the walks but still had a career-worst 1.37 WHIP.  On the plus side he struck out 200 for the second year in a row.  Maybe next year he puts it all together and takes a leap in value.  Sound investment around the 8th round.
• Francisco Liriano - .340 BABIP.  His 1.26 WHIP could have been even lower.  His 3.02 SIERA against his 3.62 ERA shows there's room for more here.  However, Liriano won't be drafted in the 19th round on average this time around.
• Honorable mentions to Jason Hammel (.337) and Jonathon Niese (.335).

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Lilly Remains With Dodgers

Good news for fantasy leaguers, as lefty Ted Lilly inked a three-year deal with the Dodgers.  Lilly has found the National League to his liking since 2007, trimming his walk rate significantly.  Only a handful of starting pitchers had an average fastball velocity below Lilly's 86.7 mph this year.  Unlike Mark Buehrle, Livan Hernandez, and others, Lilly is able to deceive his way to a strikeout rate near 8.0 per nine typically.

Lilly's wart is his groundball rate, which at 29.5% was the second-worst in baseball this year behind Kevin Slowey.  Tons of flyballs means frequent home runs; fortunately, they come without men on base given Lilly's control and apparent ability to prevent batted balls from falling for hits.  Dodger Stadium has a reputation as a pitcher-friendly place, though this year and in '07 it actually inflated home runs according to ESPN's park factors.  Lilly had a 1.35 HR/9 in 46.6 Dodger Stadium innings this year, which is around what we've come to expect from him.

Lilly had a sparkling 2.96 SIERA in 76.6 innings for the Dodgers this year, with a 4.14 mark in 117 Cubs frames.  His past Cubs' SIERAs suggest you should look for something in the 3.80 range going forward.  Lilly turns 35 in January, and there is health risk.  He missed most of April this year due to minor shoulder surgery, and has a history of shoulder problems from his American League days.

Lilly isn't an exciting pitcher, but he still gives you 165 Ks and a strong WHIP.  Last year he was drafted in the 16th round on average, and he should be in the same bargain range in 2011.

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Done In By Home Runs

Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Josh Beckett, Jake Peavy, and Scott Baker all posted strong strikeout and walk rates this year, yet all had ERAs of 4.49 or higher.  The problem: home runs allowed.  Shields and Beckett were especially bad, but all five had HR/9 rates of 1.09 or higher.  Can we expect improvement in 2011?

If xFIP had its way, all of their ERAs would be at 4.08 or lower based on their peripherals.  XFIP attempts to iron out abnormal home run per flyball rates, going as far to peg Nolasco at 3.55 instead of his actual 4.51 mark.  Shields gets 3.72 instead of 5.18.

We prefer Baseball Prospectus' SIERA, though.  SIERA likes these five even more, assigning nothing above the 3.84 Beckett received.  Nolasco gets 3.33, Shields 3.57.  I read up on SIERA but couldn't quite wrap my mind around it, so I asked BP's Matt Swartz to explain why it was lower than xFIP for these five pitchers.  I also asked him whether that means SIERA expects better results for the pitchers in 2011 than xFIP does.  His response was helpful:

SIERA is lower than xFIP for those guys because of what we joked should be called "The Johan Effect"-- basically, those guys are likely to give up solo homers when they do give up homers, because they all have good K/BB causing them to have not that many baserunners on when the inevitable home runs are hit.  I think that probably covers all of those guys actually.  I think xFIP and SIERA would agree on the number of expected home runs and disagree about how much to "charge" them for it.

Interesting.  I think Swartz would agree that the home run rates should come down next year for at least Nolasco, Shields, and Beckett.  Both stats clearly suggest ERAs will come down for all five.  They look like good value buys for 2011.

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Post-Hype Sleeper: Homer Bailey

Prior to the 2007 season, Baseball America ranked Homer Bailey the fifth-best prospect in all of baseball.  Before the '08 season, they had him ninth.  But after the '08 season, Bailey sported a 6.72 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, and 1.2 HR/9 in 81.6 big league innings.  He also allowed 102 hits in that time.  '09 was a little better - Bailey's Triple-A performance improved, and his Major League numbers in 20 starts were at least tolerable.

Back in March, Bailey still went undrafted in mixed leagues.  I projected him to post a 4.64 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 175 innings, and he bested those rates only by a bit - 4.46 and 1.37.  He was limited to 109 Major League innings, hitting the DL with shoulder inflammation on May 24th.  He wasn't activated until August 15th.  Given Bailey's WHIP and the injury risk, there's really not enough here to justify drafting him inside the first 15 rounds in 2011.  But there are signs that he could have a big campaign, even if the hype has subsided.

• Bailey throws hard - an average fastball velocity of 92.8 this year and 94.4 last year.  In late September, Bailey touched 97.  As simple as it is, fastball velocity is a good way to identify breakout players. 
• He had strong peripheral stats - an 8.26 K/9 and 3.30 BB/9.  His K/9 ranked 27th among those with 100 innings, and pretty much all the names surrounding him on the list are good fantasy pitchers.  His 4.46 ERA was deceptive - xFIP says 3.91 and SIERA says 3.79.  Given the same peripherals next year Bailey should be in that range.
• Bailey's work leading up to his DL stint wasn't amazing - 5.51 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.24 HR/9 in 50.6 innings across nine starts.  But check out what he did after he returned: 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9 in 58.3 innings across ten starts. That included nine and ten-strikeout efforts.

Before the '09 season Bailey had never topped 147.6 innings in a season.  In '09, he tossed 203 - an increase of more than 55 innings.  He wasn't efficient, either - in his big league time in '09 he ranked 7th-worst in baseball (100 innings minimum) with 17.7 pitches per inning.  He didn't improve upon that this year, ranking third-worst with a similar figure.  There was no difference before and after his DL stint, either.  My guess: Bailey's injury this year was related to his '09 workload.  Also, he really labors out there, so even if he makes 30 starts don't expect more than 175 innings in 2011.

Bailey's pedestrian fantasy rate stats in 2010, his time lost to injury, and his inefficiency make him a risky play for 2011.  Those red flags also make him a great sleeper, as he'll probably go late in drafts.

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Jordan Zimmermann Worth Stashing?

Jordan Zimmermann had a strong rookie debut for the Nationals last year, whiffing more than a batter per inning with good control.  However he went down for Tommy John surgery on August 12th, 2009.  As he nears the end of his minor league rehab work, should mixed leaguers have him stashed?

Zimmermann's recovery has been on the short end of the typical period for Tommy John, but he's had no setbacks and the Nats have used him carefully.  He's already made nine rehab starts in the minors, though he's averaged fewer than four innings per game.  His numbers are strong, though I wouldn't mind a K/9 higher than the current 6.8.

Zimmermann's rehab plan calls for at least one more five-inning start at Triple A, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.  If that goes well, he could make his season debut August 25th against the Cubs.  Five starts from Zimmermann is appealing in any fantasy league, but there's a catch: Kilgore says he will throw a maximum of five innings per start.  That figures to limit his chances at wins.

Even with the inning limitation, I think Zimmermann is worth stashing in mixed leagues - unless you use quality starts as a category.  His SIERA last year was 3.37, and an ERA under 4.00 this year will probably help the back-end of your rotation for the season's final month.  Who knows, maybe the innings limitation will allow Zimmermann to go full blast moreso than usual.

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Time To Switch To SIERA

It's time to start relying on Baseball Prospectus' pitching stat SIERA (Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average), introduced in February.  Right now the most common pitching stat of this type used is xFIP.  XFIP is great and it's aided many of my fantasy baseball pickups, but it's time to move on to SIERA.  SIERA has improved methodology and corrects for many of xFIP's flaws.  Right now xFIP is more accessible - it's available for free at FanGraphs and included in their splits data.  Perhaps that's a fantasy advantage for you - if you're paying for BP you have access to the best pitching stat for predicting future performance.

Let's see if SIERA can find some gems for the last two months of the season.  The following pitchers have ERAs over 4.00 but SIERAs under 4.00 (minimum 75 innings):

• Dan Haren - 4.60 ERA vs. 3.16 SIERA
• Brandon Morrow - 4.45 vs. 3.22
• Ricky Nolasco - 4.57 vs. 3.36
• James Shields - 4.91 vs. 3.54
• Jhoulys Chacin - 4.04 vs. 3.54
• Zack Greinke - 4.14 vs. 3.57
• Scott Baker - 4.70 vs. 3.63
• Bud Norris - 5.65 vs. 3.72
• Jason Hammel - 4.38 vs. 3.74
• Justin Masterson - 5.40 vs. 3.75
• Hisanori Takahashi - 4.13 vs. 3.75
• Max Scherzer - 4.19 vs. 3.79
• Manny Parra - 5.67 vs. 3.86
• Randy Wells - 4.37 vs. 3.94

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Mike Minor To Get The Call

Word last night from Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution was that the Braves might call up lefty Mike Minor in the wake of Kris Medlen's strained elbow ligament.  Minor is not yet available in Yahoo leagues, but should you prepare to pounce?

Minor, 22, was drafted seventh overall by the Braves last year.  Baseball America ranked him fourth among Braves prospects before the season, writing that his pitching savvy should make him at least a mid-rotation starter in the bigs.  However, they cautioned that his repertoire most resembled that of Jeremy Sowers.  But things have changed since BA wrote that description.  Check out what Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein wrote a week ago:

Minor's stuff this year has far exceeded all expectations: he's gone from a highly polished pitcher with average stuff to one with the velocity to blow it by hitters when necessary.

Just before that Goldstein wrote that Minor "continues to flash an extra 2-4 ticks on his fastball from his college days, while retaining his command and secondary offerings."  Clearly, Minor is no longer seen as just a "safe" pick. 

Statistically, Minor posted an 11.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in an 87-inning Double A stint and a 9.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in a 31.6-inning Triple A stint.  I worry that he'll walk too many guys as a rookie, as his big league rate might exceed his Double A one.  However, sometimes a rookie lefty can just be tough to hit at first; anecdotally I'm thinking of Jaime Garcia.  In fact Garcia's rates - 7.2 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 with less than a hit per inning - seem like something Minor might approximate.  That means a WHIP that's just OK, but overall numbers worthy of deep mixed leagues.

Of course, trying to predict what Minor might do over less than ten big league starts might be futile.  In the short term, Minor could step in to take Medlen's place Monday at Houston.  I know the Astros had a couple offensive outbursts this week, but it's still not an imposing lineup.  At the least Minor is a reasonable spot-start in most leagues.  He's certainly worth targeting in keeper leagues, as he's more polished than most rookies.  If you're wondering if you should drop a certain starter for Minor, leave a comment and we'll try to figure it out.

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Benching Your Starting Pitchers

I have waffled over the years as to whether it makes sense to bench your starting pitchers occasionally if they're facing tough offenses.  I always seem to guess wrong.  Tom Gorzelanny against the Pirates, that's a must-start.  But Gorzelanny in Citizens Bank against the best offense in the NL, especially against lefties - I'll sit him.  The result: I've danced around Gorzelanny's best starts.

The philosophy I hope to abide by: if he's good enough to be a permanent part of your roster, he should be active for all starts.  Against the Phillies, against the Yankees, in Colorado, whatever.  If it was easy to consistently predict the outcome of a single game, I'd be doing a whole lot of baseball betting.  I don't sit my position players against Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum, and I probably shouldn't bench decent starters against good offenses either.  If I picked a guy up solely to face the Astros, that's one thing, but otherwise I shouldn't pick and choose starts.

What's been your experience with benching your more marginal starters?  Have you seen evidence that supports spot-starting?

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Is Barry Zito For Real?

Seven starts in, we've already read quite a bit about Barry Zito's renaissance.  Consider me a skeptic.

I'm not doing anything too advanced here, but Zito's numbers outside of his 1.90 ERA are not impressive.  His walks are still high - 3.6 per nine innings.  His strikeout rate is his worst since '03 - 5.7 per nine.  We could blame a lot of this on his last start - without it, his walk rate is 2.55 per nine.  On the other hand, eliminating a pitcher's worst start will often give a huge boost when he's only made seven.

Zito has excelled in two areas - hits and home runs allowed.  6.3 hits allowed per nine is not a reasonable expectation moving forward.  You just don't see pitchers do that over an extended period.  His BABIP is quite low at .241, though we have to credit Zito for posting four other low-BABIP full seasons in his career (including .242 in '03).  Zito has also not allowed a home run so far this year, despite a career rate of 0.94 per nine coming into the season.  His 44.4% groundball rate is a career-best, so maybe he will continue doing a better job preventing the longball.  Still, that rate doesn't place him on the groundball leaderboard.

XFIP is always a good way to see how a guy has really pitched.  Per FanGraphs, Zito's is 4.49.  If the reduced strikeout rate continues Zito may have a hard time even matching last year's value of $5.43, from here on out on a prorated basis.  You may want to hang on to him for now, though, as his next start is against the Astros.

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