Starters


ADP Analysis: Overrated Starting Pitchers

By Tom Warman [January 20, 2012 at 11:00am CST]

Every Friday during the pre-season I will be analyzing ADP-related issues using the most recent ADP information courtesy of Mock Draft Central and other sources. We start this week by looking at pitchers that are overrated in relation to their ADP positions (don't trade an "overrated" top tier starter appearing on this list for Chris Volstad, unless it is because you have a fanboy mancrush on Theo Epstein), and the upcoming schedule will be:

  • Friday, January 27 - Underrated starting pitchers.
  • Friday, February 3 - Overrated hitters.
  • Friday, February 10 - Underrated hitters.
  • Friday, February 17 - Comparing ADP variances from different sources or other requests from the comments.

Leave any other ADP-related requests in the comments, and I will try to add as many as possible to the pre-season schedule. Here we go with the overrated pitchers (unless stated otherwise, all stat references are for the 2011 season):

  • Any starter in the top 15 overall (Justin Verlander is at ADP 8, Clayton Kershaw at ADP 13 and Roy Halladay at ADP 15) - As I discussed here, I am in favor of drafting a starter in rounds 2 or 3 because a 200-inning starter will have about 13% of your total innings (assuming 1500 inning limit) and a 600 at-bat hitter will have about 7% of your at-bats. I want to lock in 13% of my innings with quality stats since I have flexibility to find cumulative hitting statistics elsewhere, including by streaming at-bats. However, taking a pitcher in the top 15 is too early in this newfound era of the pitcher. I am taking Joey Votto (ADP 10), Evan Longoria (ADP 12), or Prince Fielder (ADP 16) before a starter.
  • The First Five Closers Off The Board - Also as I discussed here, do not be the owner starting closer runs in your draft, you are only chasing one category (an elite set-up reliver can get you similar non-saves stats 50-150 picks later, or off the waiver wire). I do not care if the first five are Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan Papelbon, Ricky Vaughn (where can I buy the Dorn jersey shown in that link?), or the late great Rod Beck's Des Moines center field RV, resist the urge to take a top closer! This urge will grow if top closers begin falling in your draft, but since we are only chasing one category (saves totals, which are about as predicable as throwing darts against a spinning dart board while blindfolded) the value of closers is relative to where others are being drafted. Craig Kimbrel (current ADP 54) does not increase in value falling to the eighth or ninth round if no other closers are being drafted. Ignore ADP slots or draft sheets, and just try to target getting three out of the thirty closers wherever they are being drafted. I do not believe that any owner should punt saves, just saying getting any three is fine. We will see next week that the bottom tier closers are underrated - wait on drafting closers and then pounce in rounds 11 through 18 to make sure you get three.
  • Jeremy Hellickson (ADP 131) - Among qualified starters, he had the lowest BABIP in MLB last year (.223) and had the highest differential (1.83) between SIERA on the high end (4.78) and ERA on the low end (2.95). He also has a measly 1.63 K/BB rate. And he pitches in the AL East. I'd rather have Anibal Sanchez (ADP 132, 3.29 SIERA), Max Scherzer (ADP 147, 3.63 SIERA with a 3.11 K/BB), or Shaun Marcum (ADP 154, NL Central starter, 3.91 SIERA) or Brandon Morrow (185 ADP, 3.31 SIERA, 10.19 K/9 (!)).
  • Jered Weaver (ADP 31) - 2.41 ERA masked 3.67 SIERA and 3.80 xFIP. His hr/f dropped from 8% each year from 2008 through 2010 to 6% in 2011, and was carried by an insane 3% in the first half of 2011 (10% second half of 2011). Expect regression. Give me instead Zack Greinke (ADP 51, more on this stud sleeper to follow in later posts) or teammate Dan Haren (ADP 39, 3.34 SIERA). Does this mean that if Weaver and Zack Greinke are sitting on the board at 31 that you should take Zack Greinke? The answer is, as George Lucas would have Darth Vader say (or as George Lucas would stupidly remix years later over the audio of your draft), NOOOOOOOOOOOO! It means that you take a hitter, wait a round, and still get a superior pitcher in Zack Greinke to the one you were going to take at 31 in Jared Weaver.
  • Mark Buehrle (ADP 275) - 4.38 SIERA and 4.78 k/9. I prefer the upside of Jon Niese (ADP 279, 7.89 k/9, 3.42 SIERA) or Mike Minor (ADP 296, 3.76 SIERA) instead.
  • Ian Kennedy (ADP 70) - 3.44 SIERA, and the 21 wins will cause owners to overreach. Not saying just yet I would take Madison Bumgarner (ADP 74, 3.18 SIERA) or Daniel Hudson (ADP 78) over Kennedy, but I would rather wait on my No. 2 or a high-end No. 3 starter to get one of these two a round later.

As a bonus, like seeing the Avengers teaser at the end of the Captain America credits (yes, I was one of the five or so nerds in the theater opening weekend that knew it was coming and forced my girlfriend to sit through five minutes of credits), here is a guy that seems like he would be overrated but is being drafted at about his correct slot:

  • Stephen Strasburg (ADP 58) - He will put up sick numbers for 160 innings, and then you can round out the other forty innings or so with bantha fodder set-up men from the waiver wire. I love taking him before the next two starters on the ADP list (Matt Cain at 65 and James Shields at 66). Nab him in the fifth round if he is available, particularly if you have not drafted a starter yet.

Full Story |  Comments (0) | Categories: ADP Analysis | Relievers | Starters

30 Starting Pitchers To Watch

By Tim Dierkes [March 9, 2011 at 12:24pm CST]

Last year our list of 25 starting pitchers to watch included Francisco Liriano, Mat Latos, Phil Hughes, Max Scherzer, Ervin Santana, Colby Lewis, and Ian Kennedy.  Our criteria was that the pitcher had to have been going in the 13th round or later in a 12-team mixed league at the time of writing, which was March 17th.  Note that this filter removes Dan Hudson, Ricky Romero, Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Morrow, Colby Lewis, and Neftali Feliz.  Anyway, how about some names for 2011?

  • Josh Beckett, Red Sox.  You have to like Beckett in the 16th round; his SIERA was 3.84 last year and he's backed by a good offense.  If his control returns and his HR/flyball and BABIP come down, I don't see why another '07 or '09 is out of reach.
  • Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals.  He managed to give up eight home runs in 31 innings last year after coming back from August '09 Tommy John surgery.  Otherwise the numbers looked good, and Zimmermann is back to being the intriguing pitcher he was after his '09 rookie season.
  • Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers.  Not an exciting name, and you worry about him reaching 190 innings again, but the numbers were fantastic across the board last year.
  • Ted Lilly, Dodgers.  He's homer-prone, but still keeps the WHIP down and gets Ks.
  • Mike Minor, Braves.  I can envision an ERA under 4.00 with a strong K rate, if he gets the fifth starter job.
  • Bud Norris, Astros.  We did some cherry-picking with Norris last month; he had an intriguing 13-start stretch last year.
  • Homer Bailey, Reds.  Not unlike Norris, there were injury issues but you can cherry-pick a very interesting stretch from his '10 season.  Post-hype sleeper.
  • Jeremy Hellickson, Rays.  You might have to spring for him in the 13th or 14th round, but even with 185 innings I see big things.
  • James Shields, Rays.  He had a 3.57 SIERA, and has a lot in common with Beckett in terms of their 2010 seasons.
  • Edwin Jackson, White Sox.  Very strong 75 inning stint with the White Sox; maybe Don Cooper showed him something.
  • Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks.  He'll give up some home runs, but still has value in most categories.
  • Brett Anderson, Athletics.  Aside from the injury concern, I didn't like the dip in Anderson's K rate.  You can probably find safer choices, but maybe he'll slip a few rounds in your league.
  • C.J. Wilson, Rangers.  Won't help your WHIP but could whiff 180.
  • Phil Coke, Tigers.  He will need to find a way to get righties out.
  • Jake Peavy, White Sox.  One of many health gambles worth taking late.
  • Javier Vazquez, Marlins.  He doesn't need to be the Vazquez of '09 to provide value.
  • Brian Matusz, Orioles.  We've seen the cherry-picking, though the hype is starting to grow.
  • James McDonald, Pirates.  Might be homer-prone, but will have a long leash in Pittsburgh and may at least give you Ks.
  • Ricky Nolasco, Marlins.  The ERA has to catch back up one of these years...interesting peripheral kings Nolasco and Vazquez are in the same rotation.
  • Jonathan Sanchez, Giants.  Another example of sacrificing WHIP for Ks.
  • Phil Hughes, Yankees.  I can see another step forward here.
  • Brett Myers, Astros.  File him under boring but useful.
  • Gio Gonzalez, Athletics.  Can provide Ks, gets groundballs, walks too many.
  • John Lackey, Red Sox.  Finished strong, and could be a good pick if he does better against lefties.
  • Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies.  Big-time strikeout numbers as a rookie; needs to find-tune the control.
  • Madison Bumgarner, Giants.  I can see a better K rate this year.
  • Gavin Floyd, White Sox.  Had the best groundball rate of his career last year.
  • Jorge de la Rosa, Rockies.  See Chacin, Sanchez, Wilson, Gonzalez.
  • Erik Bedard, Mariners.  Who knows if guys like Bedard and Brandon Webb will hold up, but the risk is tiny.
  • Travis Wood, Reds.  Might be homer-prone, but the ratios should be helpful.
  • This list isn't meant to be comprehensive - there are at least a dozen more undrafted starters to monitor closely for mixed leagues.  Let me know who you like in the comments.

Full Story |  Comments (0) | Categories: Starters

2010 Pitches Thrown

By Tim Dierkes [March 2, 2011 at 12:20pm CST]

Last time I tried to determine whether throwing a lot of pitches correlated with injuries, I didn't come up with a firm conclusion.  However, I'm still interested in seeing who threw the most pitches over the last few years.  I acquired the regular season data from Baseball Prospectus and added playoff data from Baseball-Reference.  I didn't add any minor league data, so if one of these guys spent any time in the minors the last few years please let me know in the comments and I'll adjust.

2010

  1. Tim Lincecum: 3983
  2. C.C. Sabathia: 3899
  3. Roy Halladay: 3885
  4. C.J. Wilson: 3843
  5. Matt Cain: 3824
  6. Dan Haren: 3749
  7. Justin Verlander: 3745
  8. Felix Hernandez: 3731
  9. Jered Weaver: 3713
  10. Colby Lewis: 3693
  11. Ubaldo Jimenez: 3600
  12. John Lackey: 3599
  13. Ryan Dempster: 3596
  14. Cole Hamels: 3585
  15. Randy Wolf: 3575
  16. David Price: 3566
  17. Ervin Santana: 3561
  18. Jonathan Sanchez: 3560
  19. Chris Carpenter: 3549
  20. Cliff Lee: 3526

2009

  1. C.C. Sabathia: 4134
  2. Cliff Lee: 4111
  3. Justin Verlander: 3937
  4. A.J. Burnett: 3921
  5. Ubaldo Jimenez: 3788
  6. Adam Wainwright: 3723
  7. Felix Hernandez: 3632
  8. Jered Weaver: 3628
  9. Joe Blanton: 3503
  10. Jon Lester: 3500
  11. Zack Greinke: 3477
  12. Doug Davis: 3470
  13. Josh Beckett: 3470
  14. Cole Hamels: 3468
  15. Edwin Jackson: 3466
  16. Dan Haren: 3460
  17. Randy Wolf: 3456
  18. Tim Lincecum: 3439
  19. Matt Garza: 3421
  20. Bronson Arroyo: 3407

2009-10 combined

  1. C.C. Sabathia: 8033
  2. Justin Verlander: 7682
  3. Cliff Lee: 7637
  4. Tim Lincecum: 7422
  5. Ubaldo Jimenez: 7388
  6. Felix Hernandez: 7363
  7. Jered Weaver: 7341
  8. Roy Halladay: 7277
  9. Dan Haren: 7209
  10. Matt Cain: 7186
  11. A.J. Burnett: 7133
  12. Adam Wainwright: 7079
  13. Cole Hamels: 7053
  14. Randy Wolf: 7031
  15. Zack Greinke: 6922
  16. Jon Lester: 6857
  17. Edwin Jackson: 6824
  18. Matt Garza: 6792
  19. Bronson Arroyo: 6767
  20. Ryan Dempster: 6755 

Full Story |  Comments (0) | Categories: Starters

Starting Pitcher Rankings

By Tim Dierkes [February 27, 2011 at 1:46pm CST]

The wait is over!  Our starting pitcher rankings are here.  Average draft round from Mock Draft Central is in parentheses.  I've been using MDC data because it's easy to work with, but we'll have ADP data from Yahoo, ESPN, and CBS soon.

  1. Tim Lincecum (2) - $37.96
  2. Roy Halladay (2) - $37.18
  3. C.C. Sabathia (5) - $31.21
  4. Justin Verlander (6) - $29.63
  5. Felix Hernandez (3) - $29.51
  6. Dan Haren (5) - $29.13
  7. Clayton Kershaw (5) - $27.59
  8. Jon Lester (4) - $27.36
  9. Zack Greinke (5) - $27.16
  10. Mat Latos (7) - $27.15
  11. Jered Weaver (5) - $25.84
  12. Cliff Lee (4) - $25.27
  13. Chris Carpenter (9) - $24.19
  14. Max Scherzer (9) - $23.98
  15. Cole Hamels (6) - $23.85
  16. Matt Cain (8) - $23.58
  17. Ubaldo Jimenez (4) - $23.33
  18. Josh Johnson (7) - $23.23
  19. Roy Oswalt (9) - $23.16
  20. Tommy Hanson (7) - $22.16
  21. Yovani Gallardo (6) - $21.11
  22. David Price (6) - $20.83
  23. Jeremy Hellickson (15) - $17.80
  24. Colby Lewis (10) - $17.26
  25. Ted Lilly (20) - $17.21
  26. Chad Billingsley (8) - $17.16
  27. Javier Vazquez (16) - $16.48
  28. Dan Hudson (12) - $15.78
  29. Francisco Liriano (7) - $15.44
  30. Phil Hughes (14) - $15.34
  31. C.J. Wilson (19) - $14.91
  32. Shaun Marcum (10) - $14.91
  33. Clay Buchholz (9) - $14.77
  34. Wandy Rodriguez (11) - $14.74
  35. Jonathan Sanchez (14) - $14.74
  36. Ian Kennedy (21) - $14.43
  37. Ricky Nolasco (16) - $14.36
  38. Josh Beckett (15) - $14.21
  39. John Danks (9) - $13.56
  40. Tim Hudson (13) - $13.41
  41. Gio Gonzalez (16) - $13.05
  42. Ryan Dempster (8) - $12.67
  43. Jake Peavy (33) - $12.11
  44. Brett Anderson (14) - $11.95
  45. Brett Myers (14) - $11.89
  46. James Shields (15) - $11.71
  47. Hiroki Kuroda (16) - $11.13
  48. Madison Bumgarner (13) - $10.97
  49. Brandon Morrow (11) - $10.61
  50. Matt Garza (10) - $10.55
  51. Brandon Webb (31) - $10.36
  52. Ervin Santana (21) - $9.82
  53. John Lackey (15) - $9.81
  54. Edinson Volquez (29) - $9.64
  55. Carlos Zambrano (27) - $8.89
  56. Travis Wood (29) - $8.30
  57. Brian Matusz (23) - $8.27
  58. Jaime Garcia (21) - $7.85
  59. Trevor Cahill (8) - $7.61
  60. Bronson Arroyo (31) - $7.60
  61. Jhoulys Chacin (26) - $7.41
  62. Johnny Cueto (27) - $6.90
  63. Jorge de la Rosa (17) - $6.58
  64. Anibal Sanchez (27) - $6.34
  65. Gavin Floyd (13) - $6.24
  66. Jordan Zimmermann (18) - $6.19
  67. Daisuke Matsuzaka (34) - $6.00
  68. Dallas Braden (33) - $5.96
  69. Scott Baker (19) - $5.27
  70. Kevin Slowey (21) - $5.24
  71. Mike Minor (25) - $5.22
  72. Randy Wolf (32) - $5.01
  73. James McDonald (31) - $4.33
  74. Jeff Niemann (33) - $4.14
  75. Jair Jurrjens (16) - $3.88
  76. Phil Coke (Not drafted) - $3.76
  77. Joel Pineiro (Not drafted) - $3.34
  78. Ricky Romero (14) - $3.14
  79. A.J. Burnett (30) - $2.91
  80. Brett Cecil (34) - $2.70
  81. Wade Davis (30) - $2.62
  82. Derek Lowe (33) - $2.38
  83. Carl Pavano (30) - $2.36
  84. Clayton Richard (32) - $2.34
  85. Jonathon Niese (22) - $2.07
  86. Chris Capuano (Not drafted) - $1.69
  87. Edwin Jackson (16) - $1.09
  88. Jake Westbrook (33) - $1.09
  89. Derek Holland (23) - $1.07
  90. Brandon McCarthy (Not drafted) - $1.00
  91. Jeremy Guthrie (Not drafted) - $0.83
  92. Randy Wells (26) - $0.65
  93. Barry Zito (Not drafted) - $0.64
  94. Kyle Drabek (33) - $0.49
  95. Justin Duchscherer (Not drafted) - $0.16
  96. Justin Masterson (33) - $0.01

I've projected 180-200 innings for a lot of guys, because I can't predict exactly who will get hurt.  This looks like a very deep group.  If you were to draft hitters for your first eight picks and assembled a staff of Scherzer, Oswalt, Hellickson, Lewis, Lilly, and Vazquez, you'd be in good shape.  There are probably a dozen additional starters I'd be comfortable mixing and matching in there if you're the type who waits on starting pitching.

A few who have the stuff to outpitch their projections: Jackson, Buchholz, Cueto, Matusz, Davis, Zimmermann, Holland, Morrow...the list goes on.  At the end of the draft you definitely want to take a kid with upside and a rotation spot over someone like Westbrook.

Full Story |  Comments (0) | Categories: Fantasy Baseball Rankings | Starters

Cherry-Picking With Bud Norris

By Tim Dierkes [February 18, 2011 at 1:39pm CST]

Time to do a little cherry-picking, slicing up a player's stats to show his potential upside.  Here's Astros starter Bud Norris in 13 starts from May 13th through August 19th:

4.48 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 in 80 1/3 innings

These numbers are intriguing, as Norris' biggest wart from 2010 was his 4.5 BB/9.  Over this cherry-picked sample at least, he was able to limit the walks.  Norris averages 93.6 mph on his fastball, and is a cheap strikeout source who is currently being drafted in the 39th round (so, not at all in most mixed leagues). 

One cause for concern was bursitis and biceps tendinitis that cropped up in late May.  Norris was already on a rehab assignment by June 7th, so the Astros may have just been playing it safe.  There's also the issue of Norris' 6.1 BB/9 over his final eight starts.  But hey, that's why you can snag him for a bench spot.

Full Story |  Comments (0) | Categories: Cherry-Picking | Houston Astros | Starters

A Look At Jeremy Hellickson

By Tim Dierkes [January 20, 2011 at 8:00am CST]

Early mock drafts have Rays righty Jeremy Hellickson going in the 16th round on average.  Is this a chance for big profit in mixed leagues?

Hellickson, just 24 in April, cruised at Triple-A this year with a 2.45 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 0.4 HR/9 in 117 2/3 innings.  The effort earned him Minor League Player of the Year honors from Baseball America.  When the Rays gave him an overdue look, he was excellent in 36 1/3 innings.  The only concern in that small sample was a 49.5% flyball rate, which would have ranked third-highest in baseball in 2010 if maintained over 150+ innings.

Projection-wise, ZiPS calls for a 3.58 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 0.73 HR/9 from Hellickson in 2011.  Baseball HQ sees a 3.78 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 1.03 HR/9.  As you'd expect, Hellickson's WHIP is below 1.30 in both projections.  Given Hellickson's flyball rate in his big league trial, I lean toward HQ's HR/9 and ERA projections.

From a scouting standpoint, Hellickson draws tons of praise.  BA says he has a "dynamic repertoire, throws four pitches for strikes, and has outstanding fastball command."  They see him as the team's No. 2 or 3 starter before long.

Hellickson's innings will go a long way toward determining his value.  With the Rays trading Matt Garza, he's now penciled into the starting five.  Last year's 155 2/3 pro innings was a career-high for Hellickson, so perhaps the Rays will be inclined to keep him under 190.

I can see Hellickson ranking around 25th among fantasy starters, so even if you grab him around the 12th round you should be happy with the results.  Pitchers don't have a ton of control over their hits allowed or win total, so if he does well there he'll jump up the rankings.

Full Story |  Comments (0) | Categories: Starters | Tampa Bay Devil Rays

AL To NL Starting Pitchers

By Tim Dierkes [January 16, 2011 at 8:14pm CST]

Like many people, I believe it's easier to pitch in the National League than the American.  The following pitchers will move to the NL for 2011:

  • Cliff Lee, Phillies.  Lee is currently a fourth-round pick.  He spent all of 2010 in the AL and flourished; he'd logged 12 regular season starts in the NL with the Phillies in '09.  That's when he had his career-best strikeout rate at 8.4 per nine, so we could see a similar boost in 2011.  Keep in mind that if Lee finds his way back to 33 regular season starts he could reach 240 innings.
  • Zack Greinke, Brewers.  He's a fifth-round pick at this time as fantasy leaguers prepare to see what Greinke can do in the NL for the first time, with a powerful offense behind him and the motivation of contention.
  • Matt Garza, Cubs.  Garza is going in the ninth round, which isn't much of an added NL boost.  If he pairs his '09 strikeout rate and '10 walk rate and manages to keep the ball in the yard, he could post a huge year.
  • Javier Vazquez, Marlins.  The ninth round is pretty early for Vazquez, he admittedly dominated in his last NL stint.  I've always got interest in Vazquez, but he may have shaken his perennial undervalued tag if that's where he's getting drafted.  I'd want him a few rounds later given his intense struggles last year.
  • Shaun Marcum, Brewers.  I suppose a lack of name value is keeping Marcum in the 14th round.  You're getting a strong WHIP and sufficient Ks; he's a major sleeper unless he climbs to a much earlier spot.
  • Dan Hudson, Diamondbacks.  Hudson came to the NL in July of last year and looked very good in 11 starts for Arizona.  As an 18th round pick you're not risking much.
  • Jake Westbrook, Cardinals.  He also moved to the NL at the trade deadline, and at 6.6 per nine posted one of the better K rates of his career.  If that holds you might be able to squeeze 160 Ks out of the groundballer.
  • Ryan Rowland-Smith, Astros and Dustin Moseley, Padres.  A very low strikeout pair that even the NL can't save for fantasy.

Full Story |  Comments (0) | Categories: Starters

Inflated HR/Flyball Rates

By Tim Dierkes [November 4, 2010 at 1:07pm CST]

About nine fantasy-relevant starting pitchers had home run per flyball rates of 13% or greater this year.  Most likely, we can expect these rates to fall in 2011, resulting in fewer home runs allowed if all else is equal.

  • Jorge de la Rosa, 15.8%.  A guy with his groundball rate shouldn't have a 1.11 HR/9.  He'll probably be out of Coors in 2011; that'll help too.  He'll get you Ks, but still needs to trim walks to be a really useful fantasy pitcher.
  • Kevin Correia, 14.8%.  Had sneakily decent peripherals, outside of his walk rate.  He won't be in San Diego in 2011, however.  Correia doesn't need to be drafted in mixed leagues, but you might want to monitor him.
  • Manny Parra, 14.8%.  His career HR/flyball and BABIP are both pretty high, and it's been over 450 innings now.  He's something of a poor man's De La Rosa.
  • Josh Beckett, 14.2%.  Burned by BABIP and HR/flyball, he's a sleeper if his control returns in 2011 and he stays healthy.
  • Javier Vazquez, 14.0%.  He didn't have the typical Vazquez velocity or strong peripherals this time.  Worth speculating on, but only late.
  • James Shields, 13.8%.  Strong K/BB, but burned by BABIP and HR/flyball.  I'd love to see him in the NL.
  • Mike Leake, 13.2%.  Gets grounders, so he shouldn't be homer-prone.  His peripherals need some work but he did skip the minors.
  • Derek Lowe, 13.1%.  He and Tim Hudson were the league's top groundballers, yet their HR rates were higher than they should have been.  Lowe has his uses at the back end of a mixed league rotation and was really sharp in the second half.
  • Tim Hudson, 13.1%.  This might be countered by a rising BABIP.  I can see a sub-4.00 ERA in 2011, but his value is limited by his lack of Ks.

Full Story |  Comments (0) | Categories: Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | Starters

Assessing Ervin Santana

By Tim Dierkes [October 29, 2010 at 11:21am CST]

Ervin Santana rewarded those who drafted him in the 19th round or picked him up off the waiver wire this season, posting a 3.92 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 169 strikeouts, and 17 wins over 222.6 innings.  It was a far cry from '09, when Santana posted a 5.03 ERA and missed a chunk of the season with an elbow strain.

How should you handle Santana, heading into 2011 drafts?  This wasn't a repeat of his '08 season, when he posted a brilliant 3.49 ERA (3.12 SIERA) and 1.12 WHIP with 214 Ks.  This time Santana had a 4.29 SIERA, 6.83 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, and 1.09 HR/9.  Those are not bad peripherals, but they suggest he belongs at the back end of a mixed league rotation.  Also, he was throwing a 94.4 mph average fastball in '08 and was at 92.5 in '10.

Don't forget that elbow issue, which makes you wonder if he can log anything close to 222.6 innings again.  If you're getting Santana around the 15th round, that works, but don't be too aggressive on him.

We don't have SIERA by month but we do have xFIP, courtesy of FanGraphs.  Santana never had an xFIP below 3.97 in any month, and his strikeout rate dipped below 6.0 in the last two.  Hard to say if that's a trend, but he could fall outside the realm of mixed league usefulness in 2011 if so.

Full Story |  Comments (0) | Categories: Fantasy Baseball Busts | Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | Starters

The Next David Price

By Tim Dierkes [October 26, 2010 at 8:00pm CST]

Rays lefty David Price made 23 starts in 2009 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.35 WHIP after starting the season at Triple A.  This year he broke out, posting a 2.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 19 wins, and 188 strikeouts.  He was drafted in the 16th round on average.  How can we identify the next Price?  Before this season, here's what we knew about Price:

  • First overall pick in 2007.
  • Threw hard for a lefty, averaging 92.9 on his fastball.
  • Control needed work and his strikeout rate wasn't amazing, but both rates were OK.
  • Nothing special about his ERA or WHIP either.
  • Doesn't play for a big-market team.

Can we find anyone similar heading into 2011 drafts?

Morrow we discussed yesterday; he might go a bit before the 16th round.  Hochevar and Minor should be drafted pretty late.

Hochevar has tossed some brilliant games over the last few years - 22 strikeouts and zero walks in consecutive 2009 starts, a 10 K effort this year.  He also had three starts this year with 7+ Ks and 2 or fewer walks.  However, he was limited to 108 pro innings with an elbow sprain.  He's the type of guy you might not have to draft but should monitor.

Minor is very interesting.  His strikeout and walk rates were strong - 9.5 and 2.4 in 40.6 innings in the Majors and 10.9 and 3.4 in 120.3 minor league frames.  He was done in by a .396 BABIP in the bigs.  SIERA puts him at 3.29 as opposed to his 5.98 ERA.

What have we learned?  There are always about 25 intriguing young pitchers each year, but Mike Minor is our best bet to be the David Price of 2011.

Full Story |  Comments (0) | Categories: Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | Starters

Next »


Site Map     Contact     About     Advertise     Privacy Policy     MLB Trade Rumors     Rss Feed