Starters

Mat Latos To Debut Sunday?

Top Padres pitching prospect Mat Latos is likely to get the call this Sunday, according to MLB.com's Corey Brock.  Fantasy implications?

First, the details on the 21 year-old righty.  He dominated at Low A last year and early this year, and then handled the jump to Double A with aplomb (a 1.91 ERA in nine starts there).  Peripherals were excellent across the board, especially his pinpoint control.  Now Latos will try to skip another level by entering the Padres rotation, possibly Sunday at home against Colorado.

Baseball America questioned the kid's maturity and health, but praised his raw stuff as "ridiculously good."  Excellent fastball and slider, decent changeup.  BA really worries about his attitude, and had him pegged for just Double A this year.

Another factor to consider is that Padres GM Kevin Towers suggested in the above-linked article that Latos will be shut down after about 55 more innings.  So you're probably getting 10-11 starts.

I see the kid is not yet listed in Yahoo leagues.  Based on his numbers, scouting report, and home park, I'd pounce when he does appear.  We often see young players struggle with control, but that might not be an issue with Latos.

---

Pitcher Abuse Points

Which starting pitchers are being ridden like rented mules?  Let's check out the Baseball Prospectus stat Pitcher Abuse Points Per Start (minimum 75 IP).

1. Roy Halladay
2. Justin Verlander - 10 starts in the 110-121 pitch range, and two more beyond that.  In his career, Verlander is yet to have an impressive second half.
3. Gil Meche
4. Kevin Millwood - Big contract incentive for Millwood to pitch 50 more innings this year.
5. Edwin Jackson - Another notch in Jim Leyland's belt, this time with a 25 year-old.  Jackson's pro innings high was 183.3 last year with the Rays; if he makes 32 starts he could top 210.  Even if his arm does hold up, you almost have to consider selling high simply because you know he probably won't repeat his 2.52 first-half ERA.
6. Adam Wainwright
7. Ubaldo Jimenez
8. C.C. Sabathia
9. Chad Billingsley
10. Ian Snell
11. Cliff Lee
12. Kyle Davies
13. Yovani Gallardo
14. Tim Lincecum
15. Josh Beckett
16. Barry Zito
17. Wandy Rodriguez
18. A.J. Burnett
19. Livan Hernandez
20. Aaron Harang

Which pitchers do you see breaking down in the second half?

---

Time To Pick Up Joe Blanton?

Phillies starter Joe Blanton is owned in less than 5% of ESPN leagues, which will probably trend upward after his 10K effort against Tampa Bay last night.  Has anything changed with the 28 year-old righty?

First off Blanton is in his first full National League season.  He bumped up his K/9 upon joining the NL last year, from a career-worst 4.4 to a career-best 6.2.  This year it's much higher at 8.3.  This is reminiscent of Bronson Arroyo, who took the NL by storm in 2006 and faded thereafter.

Blanton's always had solid control, and that's continued this year.  His two problems have been hits and home runs, which have led to a 5.06 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 83.6 innings.  While Blanton has the weakest groundball rate of his career, he still shouldn't continue allowing HRs at 17.5% per flyball.  As for the hits, Blanton's .316 BABIP exceeds his team's .308 by a touch.

XFIP says Blanton has pitched worthy of a 3.96 ERA, and his Expected WHIP is about 1.40.  So he will not help your WHIP without some good fortune in hits or improved control.  It might not be a trend, but Blanton has a 1.95 BB/9 for June and did flash that kind of control in 2007.

Blanton is sitting at the same 89.4 mph fastball as always, but has dialed up slider usage at the expense of his curveball.  He's also using an unidentified pitch almost 10% of the time, a career-high.

Blanton's next matchups are scheduled against the Braves, Mets, and Pirates.  Nothing too terrifying in there, given the Mets' depleted lineup.

---

Thoughts On Andy Sonnanstine

Doug asks:

What are your thoughts on Andy Sonnanstine from a fantasy perspective this year?  He was just OK last year but with all the studs in the Tampa organization he appears to be a guy that would be vulnerable.

This year my spreadsheet kept saying Sonnanstine was the best available pitcher ($8.21 value), and I never pulled the trigger.  I have him at a 4.16 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 121 Ks and 11 wins in 180 innings.  So he doesn't excel in any one category.  I just can't see the upside here - Sonny has great control but he throws 87 miles per hour and pitches in the AL East.  Who knows, maybe his new changeup will be effective.  But for me Sonnanstine is a guy you spot start.  You don't want to be using him against the Yankees.  He's the #4 so I don't think he gets bumped when David Price is ready. 

Sonnanstine is being drafted in the reserve rounds, but even then there are plenty of interesting upside picks like Clay Buchholz, Jordan Zimmermann, and David Purcey.

---

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Here are my tentative starting pitcher rankings for 2009 in a 5x5 mixed league with 9 pitchers (categories: ERA, WHIP, W, SV, K).  The tough part here is that adding or subtracting 20-30 innings from the projection makes a big difference.  But, here we go (draft round in parentheses):

1. Johan Santana - $38.58 (2)
2. Tim Lincecum  - $33.55 (3)
3. C.C. Sabathia - $33.38 (3)
4. Cole Hamels - $30.23 (4)
5. Jake Peavy - $29.47 (4)
6. Roy Halladay  - $28.87 (4)
7. Javier Vazquez  - $27.26 (12)
8. Dan Haren - $26.32 (5)
9. Brandon Webb - $25.72 (4)
10. Josh Beckett - $23.35 (7)
11. Rich Harden - $23.19 (10)
12. Chad Billingsley - $22.93 (8)
13. Ervin Santana - $22.89 (7)
14. Roy Oswalt - $21.88 (7)
15. James Shields - $21.01 (7)
16. Yovani Gallardo - $20.66 (11)
17. A.J. Burnett - $20.21 (9)
18. Joba Chamberlain - $19.48 (9)
19. Scott Kazmir - $17.50 (8)
20. Brett Myers - $17.34 (13)
21. Felix Hernandez - $17.27 (8)
22. Cliff Lee - $17.03 (6)
23. Matt Cain - $16.53 (11)
24. John Lackey - $16.16 (8)
25. Ted Lilly - $16.10 (17)
26. Francisco Liriano - $16.07 (6)
27. Derek Lowe - $15.67 (14)
28. Zack Greinke - $15.03 (13)
29. Ricky Nolasco - $15.01 (11)
30. Kenshin Kawakami - $14.87 (27)
31. Randy Johnson - $13.91 (13)
32. Daisuke Matsuzaka - $13.79 (9)
33. Max Scherzer - $13.45 (16)
34. Kevin Slowey - $13.30 (15)
35. Jered Weaver - $13.25 (21)
36. Aaron Harang - $12.76 (14)
37. Justin Verlander - $12.37 (11)
38. Edinson Volquez - $12.24 (9)
39. Adam Wainwright - $11.63 (12)
40. Ryan Dempster - $11.19 (13)
41. Erik Bedard - $11.10 (16)
42. Scott Baker - $10.67 (19)
43. Gil Meche - $10.59 (23)
44. John Maine - $10.33 (24)
45. Carlos Zambrano - $10.30 (10)
46. John Danks - $9.61 (13)
47. Matt Garza - $9.17 (15)
48. Clayton Kershaw - $8.59 (18)
49. Justin Duchscherer - $8.57 (16)
50. Johnny Cueto - $8.56 (17)
51. Andy Sonnanstine - $8.53 (28)
52. Chris Young - $8.37 (10)
53. Josh Johnson - $8.35 (13)
54. Jon Lester - $8.31 (9)
55. David Bush - $6.57 (28)
56. Manny Parra - $6.45 (27)
57. Hiroki Kuroda - $6.44 (24)
58. Joe Blanton - $6.33 (28)
59. Bronson Arroyo - $6.03 (28)
60. Oliver Perez - $5.85 (25)
61. Andy Pettitte - $5.84 (19)
62. Mark Buehrle - $5.79 (27)
63. Jair Jurrjens - $5.17 (16)
64. John Smoltz - $4.08 (23)
65. Wandy Rodriguez - $3.85 (26)
66. Chien-Ming Wang - $3.52 (19)
67. Jesse Litsch - $3.30 (20)
68. Clay Buchholz - $2.97 (28)
69. Jonathan Sanchez - $2.48 (21)
70. Joe Saunders - $2.48 (15)
71. Paul Maholm - $2.44 (27)
72. Kyle Lohse - $2.11 (27)
73. Randy Wolf - $1.45 (28)
74. Braden Looper - $1.40 (33)
75. Ubaldo Jimenez - $1.35 (25)
76. Gavin Floyd - $1.18 (12)
77. Jeremy Guthrie - $1.16 (24)
78. Koji Uehara - $1.09 (26)
79. Jeremy Bonderman - $0.95 (21)
80. Mike Pelfrey - $0.57 (18)
81. Todd Wellemeyer - $0.16 (ND)

• The following are projected to throw fewer than 160 innings, so you may be able to combine them with a replacement level pickup and get more value from the roster spot: Harden, Chamberlain, Scherzer, Bedard, Duchscherer, Young, Smoltz, Wandy, Buchholz, Sanchez, Uehara, and Bonderman.
• Vazquez's projection for a 3.57 ERA seems out of whack.  He's the guy whose peripherals also lead forecasters to call for a better ERA than he's capable of.  But, 200 Ks is 200 Ks and this is a 12th round pick.
• Lee, Volquez, Zambrano, Young, Lester, Dice-K, and Floyd aren't looking like great picks for their draft positions.  Nice value in Myers, Lilly, Lowe, Kawakami, Weaver, Harang, Meche, and Maine
• Just missed the cut: Purcey, Moyer, Snell, Price, Petit, Wakefield, Campillo, Carmona.

---

The Value Of Low-Inning Starting Pitchers

Yesterday we combined Matt Wieters with Rod Barajas to create the fourth-best catcher in fantasy baseball.  One commenter argued:

You can't simply add projected stats for Wieters and Barajas and say that together it is a $17 value in the 11th round...In a lot of leagues you don't have roster room to carry three catchers. Taking up a roster spot on a catcher with an unknown entry date to the majors and a veteran in front of him can hurt you.

Good point.  With certain pitchers, though, we can assume that if they aren't pitching they're on the DL, making it less costly to carry their replacement.  That's not always true - Max Scherzer could go to the bullpen or Rich Harden could miss starts without officially hitting the DL.  But for the sake of this exercise let's assume that these guys start and pitch well when healthy and are on the DL otherwise.

The three I want to look at are Harden, Joba Chamberlain, and Max Scherzer, all of whom are projected to throw fewer than 170 innings.

For this exercise we'll add in innings of Randy Wolf as the replacement-level DL pickup you'll combine with your ace.  I have Wolf down for a 4.54 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 7.3 K/9.  Here's what we get:

• 145 inning of Harden + 55 of Wolf: 3.49 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 215 Ks, 14 W, value of $29.30, 6th among SPs
• 143 innings of Joba + 57 of Wolf: 3.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 206 Ks, 13 W, value of $25.37, 10th among SPs
• 155 innings of Scherzer + 45 of Wolf: 3.97 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 208 Ks, 12 W, value of $18.73, 18th among SPs

Harden is an 11th round pick, Joba a 9th rounder, and Scherzer a 16th rounder.  It's true that things can go wrong with this strategy and it doesn't work in every league.  But it's also true that these guys could pitch more innings than projected or you could replace them with someone better than Wolf off the waiver wire.  There is something to be said for drafting this type of low-inning, strong ERA/WHIP/K rate starting pitcher while only counting on 140-160 IP.

---

Joba Chamberlain's 2009 Innings

Recently a reader pointed out a bold projection from Ron Shandler and company at Baseball HQ: 199 innings for Joba Chamberlain in 2009.  Most forecasters agree that Joba's ERA, WHIP, and K/9 will be very strong in '09, but with that innings total you'd have to consider him a top five fantasy starter.  Mock drafters are taking Chamberlain in the 9th round on average, indicating concern that his innings will be limited by the Yankees, his health, or a midseason move to the 'pen.

I asked eleven of my favorite baseball writers to predict Chamberlain's 2009 regular season Major League innings total.  Here are the results:

• Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus: 175
• Peter Abraham, The Lohud Journal: 160
• Ken Rosenthal, FOX Sports: 155
• Peter Gammons, ESPN: 145
• Joe Pawlikowski, River Ave. Blues: 142
• Jerry Crasnick, ESPN: 142
• Ken Davidoff, Newsday: 141.6
• Rick Wilton, Baseball Injury Report: 140
• Rob Neyer, ESPN: 137.6
• Keith Law, ESPN: 125
• Jon Heyman, SI: 109

The average comes to 142.9 innings.  If Joba pitches 143 innings, I'd rank him 18th among fantasy starters - after Cliff Lee but before Rich Harden.  It's quite conceivable that Chamberlain could have more fantasy value (in just 143 innings) than John Lackey, Felix Hernandez, Scott Kazmir, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, who are all being drafted before him.

As we mentioned in the Max Scherzer post, Chamberlain will probably pitch well if he's healthy and hit the disabled list otherwise.  If he's on the DL, you can take the best available waiver wire arm.   143 innings from Joba plus 50 from the waiver wire probably equals a top ten starter.  Scherzer, Harden, and Randy Johnson may be underrated in a similar fashion.

---

Max Scherzer Concerns

Should we be worried about D'Backs starter Max Scherzer?  Last year, he had a monthlong bout with shoulder inflammation.  Already this year his arm did not feel great when he started throwing, according to MLB.com's Steve Gilbert.  Nick Piecoro talked to Arizona GM Josh Byrnes, who said nothing's changed structurally with Scherzer in comparing his June and December MRIs. 

Byrnes isn't concerned (at least publicly) and projects 170 innings for Scherzer.  Much like Joba Chamberlain (more on him in a future post), Scherzer's fantasy value is tied to his very unpredictable innings total.

Scherzer is being drafted in the 16th round on average, so drafters respect the injury concerns.  Still, that's after a guy like Aaron Cook, who shouldn't have any mixed league value in 2009. 

Say Scherzer reaches that 170 IP mark.  I have him for a 3.83 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and K/9 over 10.  He'd be worth $13.38, more than Edinson Volquez and about the same as Ricky Nolasco, Jered Weaver, Ted Lilly, and Zack Greinke.

Drop Scherzer to 140 IP, though, and he's down to $8.11 (about where I have Hiroki Kuroda and Johnny Cueto).  Here's the thing though.  Scherzer's not like Mark Buehrle, who is worth $7 because he can rack up some counting stats across 210 IP.  Scherzer, like Joba, burns bright.  If he's healthy he will probably pitch well, and if he's hurt he'll be on the DL.  If that's the case, you can sub in a tolerable 60 innings off the waiver wire and end up with good value overall.  The only risk is that he's moved to the bullpen.  For a 15th or 16th round pick, that's a risk worth taking.

---

Last Year's Starters: First 7 Rounds

In general I am not a fan of taking starting pitching within the first seven rounds of a draft.  In 2008, 16 starters were chosen within the first 84 picks on average (draft round in parentheses):

• Johan Santana (2)
• Jake Peavy (2)
• Brandon Webb (4)
• Erik Bedard (4)
• Josh Beckett (5)
• C.C. Sabathia (5)
• Cole Hamels (5)
• Justin Verlander (5)
• John Lackey (6)
• Dan Haren (6)
• Carlos Zambrano (6)
• Aaron Harang (6)
• Scott Kazmir (7)
• Roy Oswalt (7)
• John Smoltz (7)
• Felix Hernandez (7)

Using ESPN's Player Rater, 6 of these 16 were ranked within the top 20 starters.  The majority of pitchers chosen in this group did not meet expectations.  On the other hand, there were reasons to avoid Bedard, Beckett, and Verlander coming in and the rest chosen within the first five rounds panned out.  I took Haren in one draft; he profiled as a very safe pitcher.  Then again, I would've said the same about Lackey and Harang.

Taking a pitcher early can certainly work out, but is it necessary?  14 of ESPN's top 20 starters were NOT drafted within the first seven rounds.

---

Late Draft Upside Starter Picks

Today let's try to create a list of interesting late-draft starting pitchers for 2009 (say, outside of the top 120 picks or so).  These are guys who have breakout potential but may not shine in the projection systems.  I try to make a point to keep an eye on them regardless of what my dollar values say.  Which starters are you making a point to snag in the latter half of the draft?

• Yovani Gallardo (11).
• Kevin Slowey (16).  One of my favorite bargains, projecting at a 1.21 WHIP.
• Ricky Nolasco (11).
• Jered Weaver (19).  He deserves better than this.
• Zack Greinke (13).
• Scott Baker (18).  One of those guys who won't hurt you.
• Adam Wainwright (12).
• Andy Sonnanstine (19).  Similar to Baker.
• Aaron Harang (14).  Was a fantasy monster as recently as 2007.
• Gil Meche (19).
• Josh Johnson (13).
• Hiroki Kuroda (20).
• Johnny Cueto (17).
• Max Scherzer (16).
• Clayton Kershaw (17).

---

Search Roto Authority

Custom Search

Roto Authority Mailing List

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Roto Authority Features

Recent Posts

Monthly Archives