Sleepers And Busts

RotoAuthority Unscripted: What's He Do?

I play in a fantasy league that's been running so long, we typically called in over the phone (the what?) to participate in live, in-person drafts (in-person whatnow?). We've got one owner that always yells out the title of this article when a player's name is called that he's never heard of. It's half derision, half a request for information. Ken Huckaby in the third round: "What's he do?" Tim Lincecum (rookie edition) in the 20th round: "What's he do?" So the question has some mixed results.

The best way to get our draft room yelling this at you is to draft a non-prospect rookie or a backup catcher or something like that, but that isn't exactly going to help your fantasy team. Not to say you shouldn't be prepared to surprise your draft room--non-stars from small markets, guys who came up from the minors, or who spent some time hitting off the bench, or pitching out of the bullpen can all raise this question among your leaguemates. Chances are, they've heard of the player you're drafting and know generally "what he does," but maybe not that much more. These guys aren't exactly sleepers, just guys without a PR machine--and they can deliver solid value.

It should be noted here that players like this are margin moves. Sleepers are who they are (and get the hype they do when we wake up to their presence) because they come with impact upside. The players we're looking at today (and those like them) are not people we should pretend will carry you to fantasy glory in one fell swoop. They're value plays and mostly for the later rounds and lower dollars.

Corey Kluber

Kluber was actually the inspiration for this article when I was thinking of him as this year's Marco Estrada--that is, a small market pitcher with good strikeout numbers that I was excited to draft. I'm gonna try not to get quite so excited this year, but Kluber definitely has some reasons to draft him.

In 147.1 IP, Kluber notched an 8.31 K/9 and a 4.12 K/BB. Though he didn't help your team in ERA (3.85), his FIP (3.30) or xFIP (3.10) would have. His strikeout potential, good control, and likely good offensive support make him a very nice fourth or fifth starter option, with the upside to be even better. With strikeouts in his minor league history, he's more of a sleeper (in the sense of upside) than anyone else in this article.

Tyson Ross

Ross pitched 125 innings for San Diego, with an 8.57 K/9 and a 2.70 K/BB. Unlike Kluber, he outperformed his FIP (3.20) and xFIP (3.43) by a little (3.17 ERA), though not by as much as you might expect from someone in Petco Park. Still, I always like San Diego pitchers, and while Ross doesn't have Kluber's control or offense, he could be a good source of whiffs without hurting your WHIP. It's worth noting that his minor league track record for strikeouts isn't as long as Kluber's. It's also worth noting that he threw harder last year than in any of his past Major League seasons.

Jose Quintana

Quintana was someone I toyed with picking up in a few leagues last year. He'd pitch a good game, and I'd be skeptical. Then he'd pitch another good game and I'd wish I'd picked him up. And then I'd be skeptical again. I think I eventually grabbed him, but maybe someone else beat me to the punch. Either way, the final numbers were really good. Oh, and it turns out that I'm not the first person to ask what Quintana does.

He gave owners 200 IP of 7.38 K/9, 2.93 K/BB, 3.51 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. That WHIP is pretty average for a fantasy starter, but that isn't a bad thing when a pitcher is helping in counting stats. Quintana looks to have a lower ceiling than Kluber or Ross, but in deeper leagues, he's well worth a late roster slot. On the underwhelming White Sox, he shouldn't cost much.

 Colby Rasmus

All right, your leaguemates have all heard of Rasmus, for sure. But that's what makes him draftable. Ever since a very promising 2010, Rasmus has been pretty horrible. It's been mostly BABIP. In fact, his success or failure comes down almost totally to BABIP, which seems to be always extremely good or extremely bad. Check out these numbers:

2010: .354 BABIP, .276 AVG, 4.0 WAR
2011: .267 BABIP, .225 AVG, 0.5 WAR
2012: .259 BABIP, .223 AVG, 1.1 WAR
2013: .356 BABIP, .276 AVG, 4.8 WAR

So...his value, fantasy and real life, is pretty well correlated with his BABIP. What happened the one time he put up a normal BABIP? Well, it was 2009, and he BABIP'd .282, with a .259 AVG and 2.6 WAR. Decent.

Rasmus is not as good as his 2010 or 2013 seasons suggest. But he's not nearly as bad as his 2011 and 2012 seasons suggest. Playing in Toronto, though, and getting injured before the season's end may well hide his recent excellence from a lot of your leaguemates, leaving the bad taste of his low-BABIP years and feuds with Tony LaRussa in their mouths. At some point, Rasmus's BABIP will swing back towards the middle--it probably isn't going to live on the extremes of his skill lever forever. When it does, he won't be a star, but he will be a good outfielder with power.

Brad Miller

Miller might not be the next big thing at shortstop, but he's better than a lot of fantasy staples at the position. Over 600 PA, his eight homers and five steals in 76 games could translate to a 20/10 (Oliver projects 17/13, Steamer 13/11) if you're decently optimistic. And since he never slugged under .471 at any stop in the minors, it doesn't seem unreasonable to bet a little higher than the projection systems. Hitting in Safeco Field won't do him any favors, but Seattle's lineup ought to be a bit friendlier to Runs and RBI with Robinson Cano in the fold. Think of Miller if you're tempted by Asdrubal Cabrera or Jimmy Rollins.

Nate Schierholtz

Schierholtz put up a surprising (and quiet) 21 homers for the Cubbies last year. Maybe Chicago isn't a small market, but bad teams will do the trick of keeping their players out of the headlines well enough. Schierholz is a classic "What's he do?" type of guy, since he's been around forever and never really been fantasy relevant--2013 was his first season with more than 400 PA. RotoGraphs has an interesting article about the whole Cubs outfield, and I'm inclined to think that Schierholz will be the best value of the bunch when a lot of fantasy owners see his homer total and think "fluke." But it's less of a fluke than an issue of a hitters' park and playing time (seriously, check out the article). For the pocket change he'll cost, 20-homer power is great value.


Sleepers & Busts: AL West Aces

The AL West has a number of highly rated pitchers littered throughout its ranks, including the newly minted highest paid pitcher in MLB history. King Felix inked a seven-year, $175MM extension this offseason, and his career accolades and relative youth make a compelling argument to say he's worthy of that honor. The King is currently being drafted as the No. 7 starting pitcher, per Mock Draft Central, and that's pretty accurate. Maybe he could go above Cole Hamels, who's going an average of two spots higher, but he's in the correct vicinity. Ditto for Texas ace Yu Darvish (No. 9), whom I'd probably drop behind Matt Cain, Adam Wainwright and Gio Gonzalez, but is close enough to the right spot that I won't complain.

Let's look around the rest of the division for some murkier ace cases...

Jered Weaver, LAA - ADP 55

I'll say it right out of the gates -- I'm not touching Weaver in drafts this year. Weaver's been a fantasy rock for years, but his strikeout rate has dropped in consecutive seasons (6.8 K/9 in 2012) and much of his 2011-12 success came from high strand rates (82.6 percent and 79.2 percent) and equally low BABIPs (.250 and .241).

There's also the fact that while he's never been a flamethrower, Weaver's velocity is looking more and more like that of Livan Hernandez than Felix Hernandez these days. By the end of last season, he was creeping down into Barry Zito territory with that heater, as you can see. That diminished fastball averaged a career-worst 4.8 percent swinging strikes.

The differences were noticeable, as Weaver posted his highest line-drive rate since 2007 (21.1 percent), and he allowed home runs at nearly the highest rate of his career. Weaver maintained solid command and could rebound if he shows rejuvenated velocity, but he also made his first trip to the disabled list in in five years last season. With all of the red flags surrounding him, I'd drop him from a Top 10 pitcher to more of a Top 20 guy -- and probably at the back-end of that class. His name value is so high, however, that he'll almost certainly never drop that far. As such, it's best just to say "No Thanks" and take someone like Cain, Wainwright, Gonzalez, James Shields or Madison Bumgarner instead. Weaver's bust potential is just too high.

Final Ruling: Bust

Brett Anderson, OAK - ADP 204

Some 140 picks later in MDC drafts comes Brett Anderson -- the 50th starting pitcher off the board. That's a bit surprising for a 25-year-old with a career 3.57 ERA and 3.14 K/BB ratio. Obviously it's due to the fact that this will be his first full season removed from Tommy John surgery, but Anderson was nothing short of spectacular upon his brief return in 2012. Nearly 60 percent of the balls put in play against Anderson were of the grounder variety, and he posted a pristine 3.57 K/BB ratio to go along with a 2.72 FIP/3.06 xFIP/3.10 SIERA (small sample size caveat noted).

Anderson plays in a monstrous park with a pretty solid outfield defense behind him, though the infield defense could stand to improve for such a heavy ground-ball pitcher. Still, that he's being drafted after the likes of Homer Bailey, Alexi Ogando, Kyle Lohse and the aging Tim Hudson, among others, is fairly surprising. Just a few of the questionable non-starters going ahead of him include Mark Reynolds, Justin Ruggiano and Ernesto Frieri.

A career 3.57 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 3.55 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA show that Anderson is a solid bet for a useful ERA at that stage of the draft, with upside for improved ratios to offest his below-average strikeout rate. The Oakland "ace" (one could argue that Jarrod Parker deserves that title) is a terrific investment in the later rounds of drafts, and a definite post-injury sleeper.

Final Ruling: Sleeper

Bud Norris, HOU - ADP 411

It's tough to look at the Astros' rotation and declare anyone to be the ace of that staff, but if I have to pick one, Norris is my guy (apologies to Lucas Harrell). In terms of fantasy baseball, Norris is a one-trick pony, but's a pretty nice trick. He's whiffed 553 players in 563 2/3 career innings. Granted, 74 of those whiffs have come against pitchers that he'll no longer be facing all that often, so the K-rate will likely decline. However, we can't simply assume all of those strikeouts would vanish if he were to face position players.

Norris has still struck out roughly 24 percent of non-pitchers he's faced in his career. So let's assume that if you replace the 204 pitchers he's faced with actual hitters, that instead of whiffing 74 of those opponents, he'd have fanned 49. That drops his K/9, but still leaves a healthy mark of 8.4. Norris has averaged 169 innings per season over the past three years, so that's about 158 strikeouts in your pocket if you decide to draft the 132nd most popular pitcher on MDC.

Over the past three seasons, Norris has a 4.41 ERA but far more respectable marks in FIP (4.13) and xFIP (3.93). He's been a bit better than the numbers suggest in the National League, but that doesn't change the fact that the AL will likely hurt his ratios. Home runs have always been an issue for Norris, and facing a DH instead of facing someone like Tim Lincecum certainly isn't going to help his cause in that department.

But if you're in a deep mixed league or an AL-only setting, there's no reason that Norris should be as far down the draft board as he is over at MDC. He's surrounded by anemic strikeout rates (Bartolo Colon, Jeff Karstens, Wade LeBlanc) and players who likely don't even have jobs to open the season (Tyler Cloyd, Jeff Niemann, Josh Collmenter, Aaron Harang).

If you're in a standard 10- or 12-team mixed league, Norris can stay on the free agent list and perhaps make an occasional spot start against a weak lineup. But in deeper leagues, he's a nice source of strikeouts late in the game that could provide far more acceptable ratios than names being drafted ahead of him (I'm looking at you, Ubaldo Jimenez).

Final Ruling: Sleeper

Sleepers & Busts: Lesser-Discussed Prospects

Every year there are prospects who break camp with their teams and provide lofty returns on a minimal investment in the draft. While there's plenty of buzz around names like Wil Myers and Oscar Taveras already (despite Taveras not having a spot to claim on the Major League roster), here are some names to keep an eye on in the late rounds and dollar portions of your drafts and auctions this Spring...

Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B, SD - ADP 224

I already covered Gyorko in another post here, so I won't go too in depth in this portion. But it should be noted that Gyorko started Spring Training on an absolute tear, clubbing three early home runs. He's cooled since that time, but given that his main competition at second base is the light-hitting Logan Forsythe, Gyorko has a a real chance to crack the Opening Day roster as the second baseman. He's a third baseman right now in Yahoo leagues (not ESPN), meaning he'll ultimately carry dual position eligibility as well.

Gyorko ranked 71st on Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list this year and 50th on's edition.

Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL - ADP N/A

Arenado isn't even being drafted right now over at Mock Draft Central, but that figures to change if he continues to rake the way he has thus far in Spring Training and force the Rockies to think about giving him the Opening Day job at third base.

Arenado, the No. 52 prospect according to BA and No. 62 according to, had a down year at Double-A last season, but it didn't do much to alter his status as a top prospect. He hit .285/.337/.428 with 12 homers in 573 plate appearances just one season after belting 20 bombs in nearly the same amount of playing time. BA praises his quick hands and bat speed, stating that he has the ability to use all fields and should eventually blossom into a high-average, 20+ homer bat at the Major League level. He won't provide any speed, but with a home park like Coors Field to take advantage of, he brings plenty of power and RBI upside.

That might happen sooner rather than later, as the soon-to-be 22-year-old is 7-for-17 with four homers this Spring, and the Rockies are considering him for an Opening Day roster spot.

Aaron Hicks, CF, MIN - ADP N/A

Hicks entered Spring Training as the No. 72 prospect according to BA and the #98 per, though he's previously ranked as high as 19th on BA's list. He's another name that's not being drafted over at MDC, but Hicks entered Spring Training as a serious candidate to become the Twins' everyday center fielder right out of the gate. He's only improved those chances in limited at-bats thus far. Hicks is 7-for-22 with a homer and he picked up another two hits (including a second homer) in Minnesota's game against the Puerto Rican WBC team.

He's yet to draw a walk, but his traditionally patient approach is one of the things Minnesota likes most about him. It's led to a career .379 OBP in the Minor Leagues and a .384 mark at Double-A last season. Hicks getting on base is important to fantasy owners, because he brings 30-steal upside to the table (32-for-43 at Double-A last season). He also has double-digit homer pop in his bat. A switch-hitter, Hicks has historically been much stronger at the right side of the plate, but he posted an .828 OPS as a lefty last season as well. That natural right-handed stroke fits in well at Target Field, where lefties struggle to hit for power while right-handers have thrived (see: Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe, Michael Cuddyer).

Hicks could end up hitting leadoff atop an order that features Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau in the 3-4-5 spots. Keep an eye on his Spring performance to see if he can edge out Darin Mastroianni and Joe Benson for the starting job. Manager Ron Gardenhire has already voiced his desire for Hicks to make the team, and he could be a bargain in drafts if that happens.

Sleepers & Busts: NL West Outfielders

Hunter Pence, SF - ADP 99

There was a time when Pence looked to be emerging as a consistent 25-homer, 20-steal threat, which would easily position him as an elite outfielder given his consistent batting average. That proved to be a pretty fleeting thought, however, and at this point Pence is being drafted more on name value than actual performance.

Pence has seen his stolen base totals plummet from 18 in 2010 all the way down to five last season. Following his trade to the Giants last season, he attempted just one steal. While that attempt was a success, it's probably in the best interest of Giants, fantasy owners, and Pence himself that he stop running. He's a 63 percent base-stealer for his career, so let's not pretend that a return to 15-18 steals is in the offing.

Pence's stolen base total isn't the only thing that's eroding. In 2012, he posted the worst swinging strike rate (12.9 percent), contact rate (72.6 percent) and strikeout rate (21.1 percent) of his career. He'll spend his first full season at AT&T Park as opposed to hitter-friendly venues like Minute Maid (Houston) and Citizens Bank (Philadelphia), which in addition to having deeper dimensions in general also is home to a towering right-field wall that will prevent chip shots like this one from becoming long balls.

In an admittedly small 196-plate-appearance sample size, Pence is just a .253/.318/.425 hitter at AT&T Park, and his other skills are deteriorating. If Pence is simply a .255-.275 hitter with 20-homer power, little speed and an average supporting cast... is he worthy of a Top 100 pick? 

Pence is coming off the board directly ahead of Max Scherzer (whom I love, in case you missed it), Jimmy Rollins, Jose Altuve and Danny Espinosa -- all of whom I prefer to Pence. In terms of outfielders, Austin Jackson, Nick Swisher (a more consistent source of 25ish homers, plus solid RBI and Runs totals), Carlos Beltran and Shane Victorino are all coming off the board well after Pence. Each should produce more value. Don't be fooled by Pence's name.

Final Ruling: Bust

Carlos Quentin, SD - ADP 226

Put aside the fact that we all know Quentin is made of something roughly as durable as a sheet of glass and an eighth grade paper mache project for a second and stick with me.

Quentin laid off out-of-zone pitches at much better rate than in his two previous seasons and became ravenously aggressive on pitches within the zone. The only player with at least 300 PAs who swung at more strikes than Quentin was Josh Hamilton, but Quentin swung at 16 percent fewer pitches outside the zone. Hamilton swung at those strikes because he swings at everything; Quentin's swung because he knew he was being hyper-aggressive on hittable pitches.

And the best part is... it worked! Quentin hit .261/.374/.504 in 86 games, with each rate stat representing his highest total since '08.  His 10.6 percent walk-rate was also his best since that season, and his 12.1 percent strikeout rate was a career-best.

Quentin's probably (ok, certainly) going to wind up spending some time on the disabled list this season. When healthy though, his numbers from 2012 were the best he'd managed since his breakout 2008 season. Playing at Petco Park hurt his numbers a bit, as evidenced by a slight downward trend in his plate appearances per homer (21.25), but his occasional deep drives to right field may yield an extra homer or two, given Petco's new dimensions.

Ichiro Suzuki, Lornezo Cain, Dexter Fowler and Justin Ruggiano -- the four outfielders coming off the board ahead of Quentin -- don't offer nearly the same power upside. He might only garner 400 plate appearances, but those could very well be very fruitful in terms of power output.

Final Ruling: Sleeper

Will Venable, SD - ADP 303

Speaking of those new dimensions at Petco Park, is anyone happier with them than Venable? Venable hit .239/.301/.340 at home last season and hit .286/.365/.509 on the road. That pronounced split has held true throughout his career, as he holds a .675 OPS at home compared to a .799 mark on the road.

That's not the only pronounced split with Venable, whose .583 career OPS versus lefties is dwarfed by his .772 mark against right-handers. If you decide to pursue him on draft day, you should know you're not getting an everyday player. And when he does start against a lefty, get him out of the lineup.

Venable is incredibly valuable when he's in the lineup though. A career 83 percent thief on the basepaths, he's averaged 26 swipes over the past three seasons. He's also averaged 10 homers in that time, and the friendlier dimensions at Petco Park figure to pad those numbers a bit.

Venable posted the best strikeout rate of his career in 2012 (20 percent) -- the second straight season in which he's improved his whiff rate. Both his line-drive and ground-ball rates were career-bests as well, which is a nice thing to see for a hitter whose value is derived more from his wheels than his guns. His plate discipline improved across the board -- fewer chases, more swings at strikes, more contact, and fewer whiffs.

Venable's coming off the board after names like Leonys Martin, Delmon Young, Lucas Duda, Cody Ross and Jeff Francoeur (yes, really -- and 40 spots later than Frenchy, no less!). He's a must-draft in NL-only formats, and even those in deep mixers will be able to glean value from his stellar play against righties, presuming you have a suitable backup when Venable's against a southpaw.

Final Ruling: Sleeper

Sleepers & Busts: Shortstop Speedsters

Elvis Andrus, TEX - ADP 130

One year ago, Andrus entered the season ranked as a Top 5 shortstop by most rankings. A year later, he's dropped to the No. 8 shortstop over at Mock Draft Central, and while that's more accurate, I still feel like if you draft him at his current position you're paying for the name more than the production.

Andrus' average has risen steadily each of the past three years, but that doesn't mean it's safe to expect growth from last year's .286. Andrus' jump from 2010-11 was the result of a markedly increased line-drive rate (19.3 percent to 23.1 percent) and a reduction in his infield pop-ups. Both of those numbers took steps back last season, but his average leapt again based on his .332 BABIP. That's a healthy jump from the .312 mark he carried into last season.

Andrus' stolen base total dropped to 21, and it did so thanks to a paltry 67.7 percent success rate in 31 attempts. Since going 33-for-39 (84.6 percent) in his rookie season, Andrus has gone 90-for-127 (70.8 percent) from 2010-12. While he runs a lot, he's not exactly a great base stealer, and last season was the worst of them all.

He'll also lose the added benefit of Josh Hamilton driving him in. Mike Napoli, too, is gone. The Rangers' lineup in general doesn't look as threatening as it once did, given Hamilton's departure and an aging Nelson Cruz. It's still solid, but it's fair to expect a decrease in runs for Andrus given the changes.

Elvis is still just 24 years old, so he could surprise with some power, but over four years he's basically been a steals-and-runs shortstop, and there's plenty of reason to believe he'll disappoint in both of those categories in 2013. Still, he comes off the board before Dan Haren, Greg Holland, Matt Moore, Salvador Perez and a host other players, including the comparable Alcides Escobar. I'd pass at his current slot.

Final Ruling: Bust

Alcides Escobar, KC - ADP 215

Speaking of Alcides, he's coming off the board a full 85 picks later. That's seven full rounds of difference between shortstops who went .293-68-5-52-35 (Escobar) and .286-85-3-62-21 (Andrus).

Andrus clearly wins in the runs and RBI departments, but Escobar stands to make up a lot of ground as the Royals' projected No. 2 hitter in 2013. After spending the first three months of the year primarily in the 7, 8 and 9 spots for Kansas City, Escobar jumped to the two-hole and never looked back on July 1. He scored 39 of his 68 runs in those 81 games (58 percent) and picked up 32 of his 52 RBIs (62 percent).

Unlike Andrus, Escobar is an 81.3 percent base stealer since being traded to Kansas City (61-for-75), and last season's 35-for-40 (87.5 percent) effort was remarkable. It's fair to expect a step back in last year's 23 percent line-drive rate, which would lower his .344 BABIP and .293 average. Still, Escobar finds himself coming off the board in the late 17th round -- after the likes of Hisashi Iwakuma, Trevor Cahill, Wade Miley, Mark Reynolds, Justin Ruggiano and Dustin Ackley. If you're looking for a shortstop and/or speed in the tenth round, wait back and grab Escobar three or four rounds later instead of taking Andrus. 

Final Ruling: Sleeper

Everth Cabrera, SD - ADP 269

Cabrera is primarily a one-trick pony in his own right, but it's quite the trick. The 25-year-old led the National League in stolen bases last season despite playing in just 115 games. Cabrera swiped 44 bases in 48 (!) attempts -- good for a mind-blowing 91.6 percent success rate.

Cabrera only hit .246 last season, but he did so with a solid enough 9.6 percent walk rate that he got on base at a .324 clip. Even if he repeats his ho-hum batting average, he'll reach enough to burn up the base paths and set the table for Chase Headley, Carlos Quentin and possibly Jedd Gyorko.

There's reason for optimism with Cabrera's average, though. He's a strict line-drive (19.1 percent) and ground-ball (60.7 percent) hitter. Cabrera only hit fly balls 20.2 percent of the time -- an excellent trait for someone with his skill set. Granted, it means he's not likely to take advantage Petco Park's new hitter-friendly right field dimensions, but if you're drafting E-Cab with power in mind you've erred somewhere along the way.

Cabrera's .702 batting average on liners last season was below the league average. If he can raise that number and cut down on his strikeouts as he did in Triple-A (17.3 percent K-rate vs. 24.5 percent in the Majors), there's room for him to improve his average. His main problem is that he simply needs to be more aggressive. Cabrera doesn't swing outside the zone because he simply doesn't swing much at all. He swung at just 41.2 percent of the league's offerings (46 is average).

With a full season near the top of the order, Cabrera could surpass 70 runs and 50 steals. With an uptick in average, he has a great shot to outperform his 22nd-round ranking. Yet Cabrera is coming off the board around the same time as minor leaguers Mike Olt, Leonys Martin and Travis d'Arnaud; non-closers David Hernandez and Vinnie Pestano; and innings eaters like Jason Vargas and Brett Myers. He's worth reaching on several rounds early, as the upside is far greater than most of his peers at that stage in the draft.

Final Ruling: Sleeper

Sleepers & Busts: Ninth Inning Headscratchers

There probably isn't as volatile position in fantasy baseball as relief pitching. A year ago at this time, Andrew Bailey was a middle-tier closer. Heath Bell was regarded among the best in the game at his position. The name "Tom Wilhelmsen" would've induced a "Who?" from most fantasy players. And Craig Kimbrel -- wait, no... he was still awesome.

The Kimbrels of the world are few and far between, though. Closers are tricky because their stat lines are subject to such small sample sizes. As fantasy players, we'll often forgive (or forget) a starter's abysmal first six weeks if he kills it the rest of the season. Relievers don't have that luxury. Those ugly six weeks for the starter are close to the equivalent of a closer's full-season workload.

Guys like Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan have earned our trust over the years by proving their dominance over a large sample. When they're drafted, we're not paying for just their previous season. We're paying for their previous seven or eight seasons. That's an important distinction, but clearly not one everyone is buying into...

Fernando Rodney, TB - ADP 92

I remember being somewhat surprised that Rodney even got a Major League contract when the Rays signed him last winter. After all, Rodney was coming off a five-year stretch of a 4.42 ERA, 4.24 FIP and 4.33 xFIP. His 8.2 K/9 over those 266 innings looked decent... until you juxtaposed it with a 5.2 BB/9.

What Rodney did in 2012 was nothing short of amazing, but it was also in 74-inning sample. Even if you believe that Rodney miraculously learned to eliminate walks from his repertoire, the odds of him repeating a .220 BABIP and a ludicrous 89.4% strand rate are astronomical. And I for one don't believe the walks are gone for good. It's not as if Rodney was suddenly firing first-pitch strikes and working ahead of every hitter he faced. He threw first-pitch strikes at a 60 percent clip, which is above average, but below the 62.7 percent marks he posted in 2011 and 2009.

I'm not buying an age-35 renaissance for a previously replacement-level reliever. Even if you are, he's bound to regress to something closer to a 3.00 ERA. Is he worth taking 10 places before Nathan? No chance. Heck, he's going three picks ahead of CC Sabathia on average (Nothing makes sense anymore in this world). In my mind, he becomes a reasonable risk around pick 136 -- after Rafael Soriano. However, he's not going to last that long in drafts, so I'm steering clear entirely.

Final Ruling: Bust

Casey Janssen, TOR - ADP 212

Some 130 picks later in the draft, Janssen is coming off the board as one of the "well, what the hell, let's go with this guy" closers. I'm not really sure why that is, because Casey Janssen has been a pretty damn good pitcher for three straight years now.

Dating back to 2010, Janssen has a 2.87 ERA, 3.17 FIP and 3.19 xFIP. He's fanned 8.8 batters per nine innings, which is four times more than he's walked. He doesn't induce a silly amount of ground balls, but he's been right around the league average during that stretch (45.6 percent).

Admittedly, Janssen is coming off November shoulder surgery, so he's not completely without risk. However, he's also coming off the best strikeout and walk rates of his career. And, unlike some stoppers going ahead of him (I'm looking at you, Brandon League), he's shown no discernable platoon split in recent history. In fact, Janssen has been markedly better against left-handed hitters than righties in each of the past two seasons.

I'm buying Janssen ahead of League, Kenley Jansen (only because he won't start the season in the closer role), Steve Cishek and Jonathan Broxton -- all of whom are going before him.

Final Ruling: Sleeper

Jose Veras, HOU - ADP 237

I can safely say that when Tim Dierkes approached me about writing for RotoAuthority last season, never in my absolute wildest dreams did I imagine writing a post that focused on Fernando Rodney, Casey Janssen and Jose Veras. But here we are!

Veras will have the dubious task of protecting that roughly 40 games in which Houston will actually bring a lead into the ninth inning (sorry Astros fans). He's currently the 35th reliever coming off the board at MDC, and I assume he'll jump to 36th as Bobby Parnell will now leapfrog him with Frank Francisco temporarily on the shelf.

I'm well aware that the Astros are bad. I'm also aware that Veras doesn't exactly carry an illustrious Major League track record. Still, there's no justifiable reason to draft non-closers like Drew Storen, Ryan Cook and Kyuji Fujikawa ahead of him on Draft Day.

And really, there's some things to like about Veras. Over the past three seasons, his ERA/FIP/xFIP is a reasonable 3.73/3.68/3.84. To go along with a respectable ERA, Veras has a blazing 10.3 K/9. Sadly, the caveat is that that number is barely more than double his walk rate.

Veras is going to put his fair share of batters on base, but if the end result of the 2013 season resembles something like his 3.73 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 over the past three years to go along with 20-25 saves, the 20th-round price tag currently attached to him will look like a bargain. Instead, he's going seven picks later than Bruce Rondon, who's never thrown a Major League pitch and has worse command at Double-A than Veras has in the Majors. Tyler Colvin, Oscar Taveras, Garrett Jones, Rondon, Cook and Fujikawa are just a few of the names going ahead of Veras whom I think he should leapfrog.

Final Ruling: Sleeper

All draft data courtesy of

Sleepers & Busts: Injured Backstops

Buster Posey made a lot of people look smart in 2012. His hype machine was derailed somewhat by a grotesque injury, but those who put their faith in him on Draft Day reaped the benefit of said injury's negative impact on his value.

It's not an uncommon scenario. Well, ok, a catcher blowing out his knee then returning a year later to win the MVP is slightly uncommon in real baseball, but in terms of fantasy baseball we see the re-emergence of injured players each and every season. Here are three banged up catchers that are in comparable situations...

Victor Martinez, DET - ADP 109

Martinez enjoyed a strong season in his first year with Detroit, hitting .330/.380/.470 and driving in 103 runs. His power dipped (12 homers), but to call that "elite" production from a catcher would be putting it lightly.

However, V-Mart would then injure his left knee during his offseason training regimen. While there was some speculation that he could return late in the season, Martinez didn't play a single game in 2012.

He's currently the 10th catcher off the board over at MockDraftCentral, going ahead of Salvador Perez. If you look at ESPN's preseason rankings Martinez is the sixth catcher. That places him ahead of Perez, Mike Napoli, Miguel Montero and Wilin Rosario, to name a few.

I understand that Victor Martinez has long been a strong hitter, but the fact of the matter is that he recently turned 34, his power dipped in 2011 as it was, and he's coming off of major reconstructive knee surgery. In fact, before he could even undergo surgery to repair his torn ACL, he first underwent microfracture surgery and had to have his MCL and meniscus repaired. That's not an encouraging injury for someone who caught 6,532 innings from 2004-10 (fifth most of any player in baseball).

If you're still a believer, take a look at the last 20 years of catchers' age 34-36 seasons (min. 400 PAs). Only 10 times has a catcher even managed to be a league-average hitter, per wRC+. Only nine times has a catcher clubbed 15 or more homers at age 34-36.

Martinez at one time was an elite offensive force, but I can't see the justification of drafting him ahead of Perez's .301/.328/.471 batting line with 11 homers (76 games). Nor do I find him justified to be ranked ahead of any of the aforementioned players on ESPN.

Martinez is going two rounds ahead of Perez, per MDC, and a full five rounds ahead of fellow injured backstop Brian McCann. McCann may miss the first few weeks of 2013, but he said mid-January that he's targeting an Opening Day return. Even if he does miss a few weeks, I'll wager that 90% of a full season from the 29-year-old McCann ends up being superior to a full season of the 34-year-old Martinez.

Final ruling: Bust

Brian McCann, ATL - ADP 170

Speaking of McCann, let's discuss the former Top 3 backstop. He underwent shoulder surgery following the season after playing through some serious damage. He received a cortisone shot in August which allowed him to push through October, but an MRI following the Braves' playoff exit revealed a torn labrum. After doctors opened him up, it was discovered that the tear was larger than the MRI had shown. Whoops. And ouch.

As I stated above, McCann is projected to miss the early weeks of 2013, though he himself remains confident that he'll be able to be in the Opening Day lineup. Even if he's out for the first month or so, remember that this is a once-elite catcher who still managed to post his fifth consecutive 20-homer season despite a torn muscle in his shoulder.

He hit a career-worst .230, but that was largely because of a career-worst .234 BABIP. McCann saw his pop-up rate and ground-ball rate both rise, both of which could potentially be attributed to bad swings due to a bum shoulder. He also hit just .623 on line drives (more than 100 points below average).

McCann's plate discipline remained keen. He still whiffed in just 15.6 percent of his plate appearances and walked nine percent of the time. He rarely chased pitches out of the zone (28 percent), and his 87 percent contact rate was the best of his career. He swung through pitches just 5.4 percent of the time -- a noticeable departure from the league average of 9.1 percent.

McCann's value is being deflated by his injury, but he looks primed for a rebound season. Even if his shoulder has deteriorated, McCann still has 20-homer pop in his bat and will hit in the middle of a stacked lineup. If he does miss the early weeks, stash him in a DL spot and employ Erik Kratz for the first 25 games. Carlos Ruiz will be suspended for those games anyhow, and Kratz posted a sky-high .255 ISO for the Phillies last season. That may not be repeatable, but his .206 mark over seven Triple-A seasons suggests he can come close.

I prefer a McCann/Kratz pairing (if Kratz is even necessary) to Ryan Doumit, Jonathan Lucroy and certainly Martinez. Feel free to reach a round or two -- the power and RBIs will be worth it from your catcher slot.

Final ruling: Sleeper

Wilson Ramos, WAS - ADP 278

Ramos may have had arguably the worst 2012 ever. His season began with being kidnapped duringWinter Ball in Venezuela and ended when he tore his ACL in early May. Not exactly the follow-up to his .267/.334/.445, 15-homer 2011 season that many were anticipating.

With a (somewhat) rejuvenated Kurt Suzuki in the fold for the Nationals, Ramos will once again have to beat out an underwhelming veteran to secure the role of Davey Johnson's everyday catcher. Suzuki rebounded offensively to an extent with the Nats, but it barely moved the needle on what has been a horrible three-year stretch. Dating back to 2010, Suzuki has batted .238/.295/.361. And while he's typically around league-average in limiting the running game, he caught just five of 33 potential thieves with Washington in 2012.

In other words, Suzuki doesn't appear to be an iron-clad road block for Ramos to reclaim the starting job. Ramos was long considered one of the game's best catching prospects while with the Twins organization, and he delivered on some of that upside with a strong 2011 showing. He has 15-20 home run power and will be in a better lineup than in 2011.

Still, Ramos is a forgotten man among draftees. He's coming off the board after the likes of Wellington Castillo, Derek Norris (who no longer has a starting job) and Tyler Flowers (career 34% K-rate). Ramos should be a late steal in two-catcher leagues and is a wise target in NL-only leagues as well. I don't anticipate a Top-12 finish, but as the 28th catcher off the board currently he's clearly undervalued.

Final ruling: Sleeper

Sleepers & Busts: Jed(d)i Knights

First and foremost, I must ask you above all else to forgive the incredibly lame title of this post. It popped into my head, and once it got there, I had no choice but to go with it. It was as if someone waved a hand in my face and told me, "This is the title you're looking for." I'm profoundly sorry.

Now that that's out of the way, on with the post!

I've done several mock drafts over at Mock Draft Central already this January (it's never too early!) and each time I've been surprised at how low a couple of middle infielders' ranks are. I'll bet you could never, ever guess who they are based on the aforementioned brilliant title!

Jed Lowrie, SS, HOU - ADP 244

Lowrie cracked a career-best 16 homers last season despite appearing in just 97 games and totaling 387 plate appearances. That's pretty great production from a shortstop, and he'd probably be ranked higher if the 97 games and 387 PAs weren't both career-highs for the injury magnet as well.

He isn't going to have much of a supporting cast (at least Jose Altuve is good), and he's been injury-prone throughout his career. However, if you look at the list of maladies that have afflicted Lowrie, there isn't a recurring theme. He's been plagued by a wrist injury and a shoulder injury, and this past season was the victim of an unfortunate slide at second base that wrecked his ankle. He's even missed significant time with mono in the past.

Maybe Lowrie is just plain brittle, but it seems that a lot of his missed time can be chalked up to bad luck.

A look at Lowrie's skill-set shows a pretty disciplined player. He walked in 11.1% of his PAs last season and swung out of the zone 10 percent less than the league average. When he did swing out of the zone, he was well above the league average in contact rate. And, his swinging strike rate of 6.2% is nearly three percent below league average.

Lowrie clearly has good strike zone knowledge. His largest problem is that he's one of the most extreme flyball hitters in baseball. His 51.3% rate was second among hitters with at least 350 PAs last season, and flyballs are easier to turn into outs than grounders or line drives. His .257 BABIP is low enough to hope there's  room for improvement, but expecting more than a .260 average is probably a reach.

Lowrie has good power for a shortstop, as evidenced by his career .167 ISO and .194 mark last season. He mashed 14 homers through the season's first 66 games and was a good bet to finish in the mid-20s had he stayed healthy.

By no means is Lowrie someone who I'm going to predict as a slam-dunk Top 12 shortstop. He's been injury-prone throughout his career and doesn't carry a ton of batting average upside despite plus plate discipline. However he could hit 20-25 homers from the most power-deprived position in fantasy baseball. Despite that, he's being drafted after names like Everth Cabrera, Jean Segura and Jurickson Profar -- none of whom even have guaranteed full-time jobs.

In a keeper league, I see Profar's allure. In a re-draft league, I'll take the guy with 25-homer pop who's opening the season with an everyday job, even if he's an injury risk.

Final Ruling: Sleeper

Jedd Gyorko, 2B, SD - ADP 335

Following Chase Headley's breakout, any chance that Gyorko would reach the Majors at his natural position of third base went out the window. Luckily for fantasy players, the Padres elected to shift him to second base in the latter portion of 2012 for that reason.

Gyorko, a 2010 second-round pick by the Pads, entered 2012 as Baseball America's No. 98 prospect. Apparently he took offense to his low ranking on the list and decided to up his stock by hitting .311/.373/.547 with 30 bombs between Double-A and Triple-A (with most of the damage coming at the latter level).

The Padres are bringing the fences at the cavernous Petco Park in for the 2013 season, meaning that it might not be quite as damaging to power stats as it has been in recent years. Gyorko recently landed as the No. 50 prospect in all of baseball over at, with prospect guru Jonathan Mayo writing:

"His quick and compact swing is built for average and power, showing an outstanding ability to drive the ball to all fields."

The main reason that Gyorko appears in the middle of the list and not more toward the top is that he lacks a true defensive home. That doesn't matter for fantasy, as long as his glove is close enough to passable to keep him on the field. He's consistently shown that he can walk at an above-average clip, and his strikeout numbers haven't been that unsightly throughout the Minor Leagues.

Despite the pedigree and offensive upside, Gyorko is being drafted after low- or no-upside names like Darwin Barney, Johnny Giavotella, Daniel Murphy, Gordon Beckham and Omar Infante. For my money, Gyorko's ADP could literally vault 100 spots (moving him in front of Marco Scutaro), and I would applaud the risk. There isn't much upside to the names between the last of the serviceable second baseman and Gyorko. And if Gyorko busts, names like Barney, Murphy, Giavotella, etc. will likely be available as free agent replacements anyhow. I see no sense in drafting proven mediocrity over a potential Top-12 talent.

Final Ruling: Sleeper

Sleepers & Busts: Aging First Basemen

If far too many years of fantasy baseball has taught me anything, it's that there's nothing more tantalizing in the game than the upside of a rising star. The concept of getting your hands on a player who reportedly has first-round talent in his veins in the fourth or fifth round is alluring. It's the reason that Desmond Jennings, Brett Lawrie and Eric Hosmer were so commonly selected inside the first 60 picks last season despite each having just half a season under his belt.

Often times, we fall too deeply in love with the optimism of these picks, though. It's hard not to. Dreaming big is part of what makes fantasy baseball so damn fun. But just ask the managers who drafted Jennings, Lawrie and Hosmer in the fifth round last season exactly how that optimism came back to bite them.

The other side of the coin in that situation is that guys who have been solid regulars for years often fall to the wayside. Ditto for veterans coming off of injuries. Winning teams so often contain at least one (usually more) player who dropped significantly due to his age. I'm kicking off this week's column with a player who was unquestionably one of the key driving forces behind a league championship in 2011...

Lance Berkman, 1B, TEX - ADP 219

After Berkman's dreadful 2010 season most wrote him off. I remember being shocked to see the Cardinals of all teams -- a team with Albert Pujols manning first base at the time -- sign Berkman. I scoffed at the concept of him patrolling the outfield. Then I picked him up as a free agent in the season's first week and became his biggest cheerleader as he hit .301/.412/.547 with 31 HR, 90 runs and 90 RBI. He even kicked in a pair of steals just for laughs.

Berkman tallied just 97 plate appearances last season and still managed to display a 14.4% walk rate. His swinging strike total jumped quite a bit, and he swung at an unusual amount of pitches outside the strike zone. That's a 97-PA sample size, however.

In 2013, Berkman will move to one of the game's most notorious hitters' havens and join a lineup that includes Adrian Beltre, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus and A.J. Pierzynski, among others. He'll see significant time at DH, which should keep his legs healthy, and he'll have a nice supporting cast. I don't know that another 30-homer season is in the offing, but there's a better chance of it for him than there is for Brandon Moss, who for some reason is going almost two full rounds ahead of Big Puma.

Berkman's coming off the board later than names such as Moss, Justin Ruggiano, Dayan Viciedo and Adam Eaton. Even Alex Rodriguez, who won't play until the All-Star break, is ahead of Puma. There are question marks surrounding Berkman, but his pedigree, supporting cast and home ballpark are all in his favor.

Final Ruling: Sleeper

Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN - ADP 202

Not far ahead of Berkman on the current draft board is the 2006 AL MVP, whose career was nearly destroyed by a concussion suffered in the midst of what was shaping up to be a historic 2010 season (.345/.437/.618 in 81 games).

To say Morneau was a 2011 afterthought would be kind. In terms of fantasy relevance, he was among the most inconsequential hitters in baseball as he dealt with post-concussion symptoms and recurring injuries to his wrist and neck.

Last season was a different story. Morneau hit a respectable .267/.333/.440 with 19 homers. His walk rate crept back up to about league average, and his 17.9% whiff rate wasn't terrible. In the second half, he hit 289/.354/.439. The obvious red mark when looking at Morneau's splits is that he seems to have lost all competency against lefties. Morneau in his prime clobbered same-handed pitching. Morneau in 2012 hit .232/.271/.298 against southpaws. Ouch.

That line, however, includes an abysmal 4-for-42 (.095) start against left-handers. Morneau himself said many times early in 2012 that he found himself unable to get his timing down against left-handed pitching. From June on, he hit a far more respectable .269 against lefties, although admittedly his home run damage came almost entirely against righties.

Still, if Morneau is able to hold his own in terms of batting average against lefties, his .290/.371/.531 line against right-handers becomes pretty enticing. He's injury-free this offseason -- the first time he's been on a normal routine since the 2009-10 winter. Target Field will sap his power, but this is a former MVP-caliber  player who's shown signs of life and is being drafted at the end of the 17th round. I prefer him to Moss and to Kendrys Morales as well, who's going a full 40 picks earlier.

Final Ruling: Sleeper

Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI - ADP 135

Not every aging star is a bargain. It must be a name brand thing with Howard for him to be drafted this highly following such an unsightly 2012 season. Upon returning from an Achilles injury, Howard batted .219/.295/.423 with 14 home runs in 292 trips to the plate. Your first instinct might be to chalk the average up to poor luck -- maybe he was plagued by a low BABIP! Not so.

Howard's .287 BABIP was low by his standards, but the clear culprit in his horrific season was a lack of anything resembling strike zone knowledge. Howard struck out in 33.9% of his plate appearances and walked in 8.6% -- both career worsts. He swung out of the zone at an astonishing 37% clip -- more than six percentage points above the league average -- but made contact on just 50.2% of those offerings. That's 16 percent (!) below the league average rate. Only six players with 250 PA or more had a higher swinging strike rate than Howard's 15.1%.

Essentially, Howard treated his at-bats like childhood birthday parties, electing to hack at imaginary pinatas and play Pin the Tail on the Donkey rather than put the ball in play.

Gone are the days of Howard being an elite first baseman. Somehow, he's going one spot ahead of Adam LaRoche. If you find yourself deciding between these two, don't let nostalgia win out.

Final Ruling: Bust

Sleepers & Busts: Snakes And Rays Starters

Last week I looked at a trio of former Twins center fielders whose draft positions could stand to be adjusted. This week, I'm tackling a trio of young starters who put together pretty good fantasy seasons last year.

Wade Miley, ARI – ADP 156

On the surface, Miley’s rookie season was remarkable. He tallied a strong 194.2 innings and posted a terrific 3.33 ERA. He controlled the zone fantastically (1.71 BB/9), which contributed to his impressive 1.18 WHIP. Add in 16 wins, and Miley was a strong three-category pitcher. His strikeout rate of 6.7 per nine innings isn’t a fantasy asset, but it’s not a complete anchor on a staff either.

A closer look at Miley reveals that a repeat isn’t necessarily something to bank on, though. Miley’s season was fueled by a 6.9% HR/FB mark. Miley plays in a small park and doesn't limit fly balls all that well (43.3% ground-ball rate, 33.7% fly-ball rate), so regression toward 10% seems likely.

His xFIP of 3.75 (which normalizes HR/FB to the league average of around 10%) serves as a better predictor of what to expect in 2013. SIERA (3.84) agrees that his 2012 ERA will be difficult to repeat.

If Miley finds himself on the wrong side of the league average for  HR/FB as he did in his brief 2011 cup of coffee (15.4%), he could very well end up being a fantasy detriment in standard mixed leagues. Considering he averages just under 91 mph on his fastball, it wouldn't be shocking to see him in that territory.

In general, drafting low-strikeout pitchers whose value is dependent on a low HR/FB isn’t a good recipe. Miley is coming off the board ahead of Anibal Sanchez, Mike Minor, Brett Anderson, Jake Peavy and Matt Harvey. There’s starting pitching value beyond his current ADP – a lot of it with significant upside.

Final Ruling: Bust

Matt Moore, TB – ADP 116

Moore burst onto the scene in dominant fashion late in 2011, leading to lofty expectations and a lofty ADP in 2012. A dismal first half led many to lose faith in the flamethrowing lefty, but those who enjoyed his second half are aware of the type of talent Moore has.

Moore had a 3.01 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 79 punchouts in 77.2 second-half innings, and that’s with a late-season swoon in September. In 14 starts from June 15 through August 30, Moore tallied a 2.78 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 81 strikeouts in 87.1 innings. I’ll be the first to admit these endpoints are arbitrary, but I use them merely to demonstrate Moore’s ability to dominate over a sustained period of time.

Moore needs to illustrate better command (which he did as the season progressed), and as that comes so will his success. Just one year ago, Keith Law, Kevin Goldstein, Baseball America and Jonathan Mayo all agreed that the game’s top three prospects were Bryce Harper, Mike Trout and Moore. His overall numbers might not look it, but for an extended stretch late in the season, Moore showed he’s capable of reaching that hype.

His current draft position has him coming off the board after names like Ryan Vogelsong, Jonathon Niese, Ian Kennedy and C.J. Wilson. I prefer Moore to each and would be comfortable drafting him inside the Top 100 if the alternative was hoping he’d be there for me at the end of the tenth round.

Final Ruling: Sleeper

Alex Cobb, TB – ADP 240

Cobb certainly didn’t come with as much hype as his teammate, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty to like about the 25-year-old. His 4.03 ERA and 1.25 WHIP don’t leap off the page, nor does his 7.0 K/9, but improvement seems to be in the cards.

Cobb’s 58.8% ground-ball rate ranked third among pitchers with 130 innings. For a guy whose infield defense is going to consist of Evan Longoria, Yunel Escobar, Ben Zobrist and James Loney – with Ryan Roberts in a utility role – that’s a great trait to have. Last year, the team struggled as a whole at shortstop (-8.5 UZR, -4 DRS). With the addition of a solid glove in Escobar and a premium defender at first base, the Rays should be among baseball’s best defensive infields, which will play to Cobb’s strength.

Beyond that, Cobb’s HR/FB was as much above average as Miley was below, and Cobb stranded just 68.5 percent of his baserunners in 2012. That’s four percent below league average, and it’s not a problem he experienced throughout the Minors for any extended period of time. From 2008 forward, he was only below 72.5 percent once – his small 41-inning sample in 2012. FIP (3.67), xFIP (3.54) and SIERA (3.51) all suggest that there’s a step forward coming for Cobb. And, with 242 strikeouts over his previous 228.1 Minor League innings, there’s room to project an uptick in K’s. He’ll need to improve a pedestrian 7.7 swinging strike rate to do so, but even if he simply maintains the status quo he can outperform his ADP.

Cobb doesn’t have ace upside, but he’s a solid K/BB guy with an elite ground-ball rate who was plagued by a previously unproblematic strand rate. In spite of this, he’s coming off the board behind Ervin Santana, Edinson Volquez (who led the NL in walks), Jason Vargas, Gavin Floyd, Ricky Romero and several other pitchers who are likely to post inferior 2013 seasons. Cobb could be going a full 2-3 rounds earlier, and you’d hear no complaint from me.

Final Ruling: Sleeper

ADPs courtesy of Advanced stats courtesy of

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