Shortstops

Shortstop Rankings

Today let's rank shortstops, using AVG, HR, RBI, R, and SB.  This is for 12-team mixed leagues employing 14 hitters and 9 pitchers (including one 2B, one SS, and an MI).

1. Hanley Ramirez (1) - $28.88
2. Jose Reyes (2) - $23.86
3. Jimmy Rollins (2) - $18.81
4. Troy Tulowitzki (2) - $17.28
5. Derek Jeter (4) - $13.38
6. Asdrubal Cabrera (13) - $10.88
7. Everth Cabrera (21) - $8.41 
8. Elvis Andrus (13) - $8.21
9. Alexei Ramirez (10) - $7.75
10. Miguel Tejada (12) - $6.86
11. Erick Aybar (17) - $6.59
12. Alcides Escobar (23) - $6.49
13. Jason Bartlett (9) - $5.06
14. Yunel Escobar (13) - $4.62
15. Orlando Cabrera (16) - $3.15
16. Rafael Furcal (12) - $2.06
17. Stephen Drew (10) - $1.75
18. Marco Scutaro (18) - $1.50
19. Ryan Theriot (23) - $1.00
20. Jhonny Peralta (18) - $0.16
21. J.J. Hardy (23) - $0.14

The Big Three has officially become the Big Four, as Tulo is firmly in the mix with Reyes and Rollins.  Hanley continues to stand alone.  Reyes is riskier than Rollins given last year's hamstring surgery.  Rollins had an off-year too, but at least stayed healthy.  Given his 2009, I can see why folks are taking Tulo over Reyes and Rollins.

Asdrubal Cabrera is an intriguing 13th round choice.  A June shoulder injury kept his ABs down, but if he's healthy he should get 600.  That could mean something like .292-10-76-97-19. 

Everth Cabrera, Andrus, and Escobar are similar to me - guys who could steal 30-40 and score 80+ runs.  I wouldn't overextend for Andrus, who goes much earlier than the other two.  Alexei fits the power/speed bill, while most others offer only one of those traits.  Bartlett and Drew are a couple of 9th-10th round choices that don't thrill me.

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Replacing Rickie Weeks

So, you just lost Rickie Weeks for the season.  It's a bummer, and you aren't going to find anyone who can match his numbers on the waiver wire.  But don't spend too much time sulking - you knew Weeks was injury-prone when you drafted him.  Let's get on with the matter of replacing him.

• Orlando Cabrera has been lousy in every way this year.  He is getting acclimated to a new team again, and he supplied value last year in the form of a .281 AVG, 93 R, and 19 SB.  And that was despite a few really bad months last year.  So O-Cab is worth considering if you can take the hit in power.  Akinori Iwamura is another who can give you AVG, R, and SB.
• Mike Fontenot hit 4 HR in April, but he's been M.I.A. in May.  The Cubs want his left-handed power and infield glove, so they'll keep hoping he breaks out of the slump.
• Sometimes, like with Rick Porcello, you have to ignore the projections and pay attention to the talent.  Maybe Elvis Andrus is the same way?  He's only 20, and he's having a decent May.  He sometimes bats second in the Rangers' high-powered lineup and has the potential to steal 30.
• Edgar Renteria, once he returns to the lineup later this week, could be a guy like O-Cab who at least gives you OK counting stats.
• Alberto Callaspo never strikes out, so he really may be able to hit .300.  But he doesn't do much else.  Cristian Guzman is available in some shallower leagues; he is the more proven version of Callaspo.
• Ben Zobrist's numbers are quite good, assuming he finds playing time.
• I have a league where Kelly Johnson and Placido Polanco are available (I dropped KJ for Guzman).  I liked both 2Bs in the preseason and the season is only 1/4 over.

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Shortstop Rankings

Time to rank the shortstops for 12-team mixed leagues (assuming the normal 14 hitters).  Though I typically use 20 games for eligibility, I am including Alexei Ramirez here since he'll qualify shortly into the '09 season.  Felipe Lopez missed the cut by seven games and his not expected to play shortstop; he'd rank 13th.  Draft round in parentheses.

1. Hanley Ramirez - $40.33 (1)
2. Jose Reyes - $40.15 (1)
3. Jimmy Rollins - $27.72 (1)
4. Alexei Ramirez - $17.27 (5)
5. Rafael Furcal - $15.99 (6)
6. Derek Jeter - $13.27 (9)
7. Troy Tulowitzki - $11.95 (9)
8. J.J. Hardy - $11.86 (10)
9. Jhonny Peralta - $11.80 (9)
10. Michael Young - $10.53 (7)
11. Miguel Tejada - $9.74 (10)
12. Stephen Drew - $8.67 (8)
13. Orlando Cabrera - $6.03 (14)
14. Mike Aviles - $5.77 (13)
15. Edgar Renteria - $4.32 (23)
16. Ryan Theriot - $3.98 (16)
17. Yunel Escobar - $3.34 (16)
18. Cristian Guzman - $2.40 (25)
19. Asdrubal Cabrera - $2.39 (28)
20. Khalil Greene - $1.00 (19)
21. Jed Lowrie - $0.40 (23)
22. Jason Bartlett - $0.36 (21)

Jerry Hairston Jr. and Brandon Wood are two who would become interesting with more playing time.

Since we last discussed Drew, I've refined by dollar value while holding his ranking in a similar spot.  I know finite24 is a big Drew believer; here's his case.

As you can see, no one can hold a handle to Hanley or Reyes.  If you have a shot at one, you have to take it.

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Stephen Drew Examined

Diamondbacks shortstop Stephen Drew is a popular undervalued/sleeper pick this year.  He's being drafted sixth among shortstops, typically in the 8th round.  Drew, 26 in March, posted a fantasy line of .291-21-67-91-3 in 611 ABs last year.  What's more, his second half production, if replicated over 600 ABs, would come to .326-20-76-96-2 (a $16 value).

If Drew does manage to replicate his second half work over a full season, it'd be hard to argue that he'd be the fourth-ranked fantasy shortstop.

I have a safer projection for Drew: .277-18-72-80-4 in 565 ABs.  This line has him ranked 13th at the position, worth less than $4.

If you think Drew is more capable of something like .290-20-75-85-5, then he is creeping into Michael Young/Derek Jeter value.  Drew is right around his peak age, so there is something to be said for taking the upside guy over these two declining veterans (or an injury risk, Rafael Furcal).  I would like to see Drew run more.  Otherwise I remain unconvinced that I can't get similar production from Miguel Tejada,  Jhonny Peralta, Troy Tulowitzki, and J.J. Hardy later in the draft.

I should add that Alexei Ramirez slots in as my fourth-ranked SS if his 16 games played there in 2008 cuts it for your league.  Certainly can't go wrong with him at 2B though.

If you're picking top four, you can probably get Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez.  If you have the fifth through ninth pick, you can take Jimmy Rollins.  Those three are so far above the other shortstops that I make every effort to get one.  Beyond that trio you have to settle for a shortstop that is flawed in some way.

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Power/Speed Shortstops

Looking for double digit HRs and SBs from your shortstop?  At this point I'm projecting six options:

• Jose Reyes
• Hanley Ramirez
• Jimmy Rollins
• Alexei Ramirez
• Rafael Furcal
• Derek Jeter

If you don't spring for one of the first-rounders, you're looking at Ramirez (fifth round), Furcal (sixth round), and Jeter (eighth round).  All three have their flaws, but Alexei interests me the most.  Sophomore slump or a leap into fantasy stardom?

Five other shortstops who could sneak into double digits in both HRs and SBs: Michael Young, Mike Aviles, Edgar Renteria, Felipe Lopez (assuming 13 games cuts it), and Asdrubal Cabrera.  Three with playing time questions: Brandon Wood, Clint Barmes, and Ben Zobrist.

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Podhorzer On Tulowitzki

Mike Podhorzer takes a nice look at Troy Tulowitzki's lost season in a post today.  He explains that Tulo's 2007 season seems more of an outlier than his '08.

I considered Tulowitzki a reach in the fourth round last March.  However, I was also a big Rafael Furcal booster and wasn't particularly impressed by Stephen Drew or J.J. Hardy.  I have five fantasy teams this year, and shortstop is currently manned by Jimmy Rollins, Michael Young (twice), Mike Aviles, and Cristian Guzman.  I also managed to snag Alexei Ramirez in one league.  So, I recovered decently after drafting/acquiring Furcal in three of five leagues.  Everyone deals with injuries; you just have to move on.

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2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Shortstops

Sleepers, undervalued, profitable players, call 'em what you will.  In general, some guys who may not be getting enough respect in your mixed league.

• I would be concerned if I didn't get a Top 8 shortstop: Reyes, Ramirez, Rollins, Jeter, Furcal, Guillen, Young, Tulo.  Jeter and Tulo are reaches in the fourth round, so I often find myself with Furcal or Young in the sixth or seventh.  Tejada in the seventh: not for me.
• Orlando Cabrera around the 11th round is not a bad pick.  Say he hits .300 with 90 runs and 20 steals, he's right up there with Furcal, Guillen, Young, and Tulo.
• Julio Lugo in the 20th round is solid, maybe for your MI slot based on your needs.  I see something like .270-8-55-70-25.
• J.J. Hardy and Khalil Greene don't impress me - if either is your starting shortstop, you screwed up.
• Stephen Drew's a popular sleeper pick...if it's a 12 team mixed non-keeper league I'd pass.  If it's deeper or keeper then sure.
• Ronny Cedeno might be able to sneak in and earn a few bucks if he's traded to Baltimore.
• If I squint hard enough I can almost picture Yuniesky Betancourt as a sleeper.  He's 26, he could add some power and swipe ten.
• Anyone else you like as a shortstop sleeper?

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