Shortstops

2012 Position Rankings: Shortstop

Shortstop is one of hardest positions on the field to fill in real life, but there are plenty of fantasy options from which to choose. There is only one bonafide fantasy superstar at short though, so he'll come off the board very early on draft day. These rankings are based on standard 12-team mixed leagues with traditional 5x5 scoring.

1. Troy Tulowitzki, COL - The undisputed top fantasy shortstop, Tulo has hit .300+ in each of the last two years and 27+ HR, 90+ RBI, and 80+ runs in each of the last three years. His stolen base total is trending downward (20 in 2009, 11 in 2010, nine in 2011), but at 27 years old, he should have no problem jumping back in the double digits if healthy.
2. Hanley Ramirez, MIA - Hanley will be manning the hot corner in Miami, but he's still going to be fantasy eligible at short. Shoulder problems hampered him for most of last season, though his ground ball rate spiked significantly in 2010 and has robbed him of both over-the-fence and doubles power. Ramirez is only 28 and figures to rebound with a healthy shoulder, but he's no longer the slam dunk elite producer he once was.
3. Jose Reyes, MIA - The days of 60+ steals appear to be a thing of the past thanks to Reyes' nagging hamstring issues, which landed him on the DL twice in 2011. He doesn't figure to give you many HR or RBI, but you will get a solid batting average, a ton of runs, and still a plethora of steals assuming he can stay on the field. As with Hanley, the team's new ballpark is a bit of an x-factor.
4. Elvis Andrus, TEX - Still just 23, Andrus is a stolen base and runs scored machine, but he's not going to give you many RBI and has hit just five homers over the last two seasons. His average has been just decent so far in his career, but he puts the ball in play (just 13.1% strikeouts in his three years) and has the wheels to leg out infield hits.
5. Jimmy Rollins, PHI - J-Roll's real life value has slipped in recent years, but he's still one of fantasy's best options at the position because he'll give you everything but RBI. Like two of the four guys ahead of him, injuries are a concern, though he did get into 142 games last season.
6. Starlin Castro, CHC - The NL leader in hits last season with 207, Castro hasn't stopped hitting since debuting in 2010. He topped double-digit homers and 20+ steals for the first time last year, and should only improve from here on out. Down expect too many RBI, but the runs will be there.
7. Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE - After hitting just 18 HR in the first 387 games of his career, Cabrera clubbed 25 in 2012 and either set or matched his career bests in RBI, runs, and steals. It's not a coincidence that he was able to avoid the DL for the first time since 2008. The HR total could take a step back, but the production in the other categories should be there.
8. Alexei Ramirez, CHW - The Cuban Missile took a step back from his 2010 production, but it's hard to complain about .269/15/70/81/7. There's no reason he shouldn't get back to stealing 10+ bases again next year, and the power numbers have always been there. Ramirez is one of the safest bets on this list, a solid performer with no standout fantasy tool.
9. J.J. Hardy, BAL - Good health and the friendly confines of Camden Yards resulted in 30 HR and solid run production numbers last summer. Hardy can do it again at age 29, but he does have a bit of injury history and won't offer much in the batting average or stolen base departments.
10. Erick Aybar, LAA - Aybar doubled his best single-season homer total last year, setting new career highs in HR (ten), RBI (59), runs (71), and steals (30). He'll likely hit in the .270's again, and having Albert Pujols in the lineup will help his fantasy production one way or the other.
11. Yunel Escobar, TOR - Escobar has hit .288+ in four of the last five years, but he's also missed some time due to injury each year. The double-digit homer potential is in there despite his astronomical ground ball rate, and he'll score a ton of runs hitting in front of Jose Bautista & Co.
12. Derek Jeter, NYY - The Yankees captain was marvelous after returning from the DL in early-July (.331/.384/.447 in 314 PA), but he didn't hit much in the year and half prior to that. Jeter is an extreme ground ball hitter and might never hit double-digit homers again, but he should still give you a solid average, a health amount of steals, and a ton of runs scored thanks to his supporting cast.
13. Dee Gordon, LAD - Gordon stole 24 bases and scored 34 runs in his 56-game cameo last season, and now he's got the job full-time. There's a non-zero chance that he'll hit zero homers (none in 2011, majors or minors), but he's a threat for 50+ steals and a ton of runs scored. He might not hit for a decent average or drive in many runs, but the bulk steals will be tremendously valuable.
14. Jhonny Peralta, DET - Peralta had he best season of his career last year, though his batting average was the only fantasy stat that really jumped a notch. He'd been a 15+ HR, 80+ RBI, zero steals guy for half-a-decade, and that's what he should be next year. I wouldn't count on another .299 average though, there was no significant change in his batting ball profile to suggest real improvement just yet.
15. Emilio Bonifacio, MIA - Bonifacio broke out in a big way last season, hitting .296 with 40 steals and a ton of runs scored. His .372 BABIP is high compared the rest of his career, which is notable since his batted ball profile didn't change much. That near-.300 average could come back to Earth in 2012, but the stolen base ability is for real.
16. Stephen Drew, ARI - The D'Backs aren't sure when exactly they'll have their shortstop back, but Drew has been running following his season-ending ankle injury. When healthy, he'll give you a decent average, double-digit homers, and solid run production, but who knows when he'll get back on the field and more importantly, shake off the rust.
17. Ian Desmond, WAS - Desmond produced nearly identical fantasy numbers in 2011 that he did in 2010, which meant .253/8/49/65/25. He's done it two years in a row now, do I'd count on it again in 2012.
18. Alcides Escobar, KC - A defense-first shortstop, Escobar got back to stealing bases last year (26) and managed to score a fair amount of runs (69) at the bottom of the lineup. He won't hit for average or power, so his fantasy value is tied up almost exclusively in runs and steals.
19. Jason Bartlett, SD - We're now two full years removed from Bartlett's monster 2009 season, but he did provide value by stealing 23 bases last year. He's basically a poor man's Desmond, doing everything the Nats' shortstop does except hit for any kind of power.
20. Marco Scutaro, COL - Scutaro does a little bit of everything but nothing exceptionally well. He'll lose some runs scored and RBI given the move out of the Red Sox's lineup, but he'll hit for a solid average, pop some homers, and steal the occasional base. 
21. Jamey Carroll, MIN - Carroll hasn't hit a homer in two full seasons now, but he continues to hit close to .300 and steal double-digit bases even at age 37. He'll also draw enough walks and reach base often enough to provide plenty of runs scored, particularly if Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau stay healthy.
22. Jed Lowrie, HOU - It's all about health for Lowrie, who hasn't played in 100 games in a single season since 2008. He can hit when healthy, though probably not as well as he did in the second half of 2010. He has the ability to provide double-digit homers with a solid average and run production numbers, but will he stay on the field long enough to be worth a roster spot?
23. Mike Aviles, BOS - It's shouldn't be all that difficult for Aviles to beat out Nick Punto for regular at-bats, but as an opposite-field right-handed hitter, he won't get to take advantage of the Green Monster. There's .300/10+/10+ potential here, but only if he plays every pretty much every day.
24. Rafael Furcal, STL - As injuries continue to take their roll on Furcal's now 34-year-old body, his fantasy worth depends on whether or not he can stay healthy enough to slash his way to a .300 average and 20+ steals like he did in 2010. I'm guessing he won't, but stranger things have happened.
25. Alex Gonzalez, MIL - Gonzalez has whacked 15+ HR in three of the last four years, but he doesn't do much beyond that. He hits at or below .250, doesn't steal bases, and doesn't get on base enough to post meaningul runs scored totals. It's all about the power here, don't expect any help in the other categories.

Honorable Mention: Clint Barmes, PIT; Cliff Pennington, OAK; Eduardo Nunez, NYY; Sean Rodriguez, TBR; Ryan Theriot, SF; Yuniesky Betancourt, KC

Other Positions: Catcher, First Base, Second Base

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Shortstop Rankings

We've covered catchers, first basemen, and second basemen, and now it's time to take a look at shortstops.  Average draft round from Mock Draft Central is in parentheses.    

1. Hanley Ramirez (1) - $29.82
2. Troy Tulowitzki (1) - $22.83
3. Jose Reyes (3) - $19.15
4. Jimmy Rollins (4) - $15.52
5. Tsuyoshi Nishioka (37) - $13.82
6. Rafael Furcal (12) - $10.63
7. Derek Jeter (5) - $10.39
8. Alexei Ramirez (8) - $8.40
9. Elvis Andrus (6) - $5.02
10. Ian Desmond (19) - $3.70
11. Starlin Castro (14) - $3.07
12. Alcides Escobar (37) - $2.64
13. Stephen Drew (11) - $2.32
14. Miguel Tejada (25) - $2.07
15. Alexi Casilla (Not drafted) - $1.00
16. J.J. Hardy (41) - $0.58
17. Jason Bartlett (36) - $0.55
18. Juan Uribe (28) - $0.50
19. Asdrubal Cabrera (15) - $0.19

My first impression is that the shortstop position is barren in 2011.  It's always light, but there are fewer than ten guys I'd feel comfortable drafting in a 12-team mixed league this year.

Hanley and Tulo are being drafted second and fifth overall respectively, and I don't object to that.  It is so difficult to find a comparable player that you have to pounce.  Reyes in the third round is mighty interesting.  I think he'll be right there with Tulo, but as a reminder I like to project full seasons and I have Reyes at 625 ABs.

It's unclear whether Nishioka will play second base or shortstop, but Yahoo currently has him eligible at both positions.  I see him as a three-category contributor - .290 average, 100 runs, approaching 30 steals.  Even if he doesn't get to those lofty heights you'll probably turn a tidy profit.  Of course, there's risk in using an MLB rookie as your starting shortstop.

Not sure why a two-category guy like Andrus would go in the sixth round; maybe that's when people start getting desperate for a shortstop with Jeter off the board.  Drew always gets love from drafters, but .270-15-65-80-8 really is a $2-3 performance in a 12-team mixed league.

My advice is to go early for one of my top eight shortstops, and fill your MI slot with a second baseman.

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2010 Sleepers: Shortstops

It's tough to find a good shortstop, whether in fantasy or real baseball.  Thanks to Baseball Monster, here are 2010's top mixed league shortstops.  I've also added the round in which they were drafted in March, using data from Mock Draft Central.

1. Hanley Ramirez (1)
2. Troy Tulowitzki (2)
3. Derek Jeter (4)
4. Alexei Ramirez (10)
5. Jose Reyes (2)
6. Stephen Drew (10)
7. Alex Gonzalez (36)
8. Marco Scutaro (18)
9. Rafael Furcal (12)
10. Elvis Andrus (13)
11. Ian Desmond (31)
12. Yuniesky Betancourt (not drafted)
13. Mike Aviles (28)
14. Cliff Pennington (not drafted)
15. Ryan Theriot (23)
16. Jason Bartlett (9)

Jimmy Rollins, a second-round pick, ranked 19th.  Unlike second base, there wasn't much in terms of good value at shortstop this year.  But why were these few undervalued on draft day?

• Jeter: Age, so famous he's underrated, undervaluing of steals.  He was coming off a huge year, so the fourth round was a solid place to get him.  I think people see the name Jeter and assume he's going too early because he's famous.  But even at 36 he's typically contributing in all five categories, especially runs.
• Ramirez: Slightly disappointing in previous season.  Not sure why there wasn't more love for Ramirez, who was coming off a well-rounded campaign even if it fell short of his fine rookie season.  Perhaps the slower finish in 2009 was a factor.
• Drew: Lack of speed, batting average questions.  I typically stay away from Drew because he doesn't steal enough bags, but this year he made a career-high 15 attempts and succeeded on ten of them.  He also brought his average back to a respectable .278.
• Gonzalez: Boring player, last good season in 2007.  I don't think too many expected Gonzalez to bang out 23 homers and 88 RBIs this year.

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Shortstop Rankings

Today let's rank shortstops, using AVG, HR, RBI, R, and SB.  This is for 12-team mixed leagues employing 14 hitters and 9 pitchers (including one 2B, one SS, and an MI).

1. Hanley Ramirez (1) - $28.88
2. Jose Reyes (2) - $23.86
3. Jimmy Rollins (2) - $18.81
4. Troy Tulowitzki (2) - $17.28
5. Derek Jeter (4) - $13.38
6. Asdrubal Cabrera (13) - $10.88
7. Everth Cabrera (21) - $8.41 
8. Elvis Andrus (13) - $8.21
9. Alexei Ramirez (10) - $7.75
10. Miguel Tejada (12) - $6.86
11. Erick Aybar (17) - $6.59
12. Alcides Escobar (23) - $6.49
13. Jason Bartlett (9) - $5.06
14. Yunel Escobar (13) - $4.62
15. Orlando Cabrera (16) - $3.15
16. Rafael Furcal (12) - $2.06
17. Stephen Drew (10) - $1.75
18. Marco Scutaro (18) - $1.50
19. Ryan Theriot (23) - $1.00
20. Jhonny Peralta (18) - $0.16
21. J.J. Hardy (23) - $0.14

The Big Three has officially become the Big Four, as Tulo is firmly in the mix with Reyes and Rollins.  Hanley continues to stand alone.  Reyes is riskier than Rollins given last year's hamstring surgery.  Rollins had an off-year too, but at least stayed healthy.  Given his 2009, I can see why folks are taking Tulo over Reyes and Rollins.

Asdrubal Cabrera is an intriguing 13th round choice.  A June shoulder injury kept his ABs down, but if he's healthy he should get 600.  That could mean something like .292-10-76-97-19. 

Everth Cabrera, Andrus, and Escobar are similar to me - guys who could steal 30-40 and score 80+ runs.  I wouldn't overextend for Andrus, who goes much earlier than the other two.  Alexei fits the power/speed bill, while most others offer only one of those traits.  Bartlett and Drew are a couple of 9th-10th round choices that don't thrill me.

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Replacing Rickie Weeks

So, you just lost Rickie Weeks for the season.  It's a bummer, and you aren't going to find anyone who can match his numbers on the waiver wire.  But don't spend too much time sulking - you knew Weeks was injury-prone when you drafted him.  Let's get on with the matter of replacing him.

• Orlando Cabrera has been lousy in every way this year.  He is getting acclimated to a new team again, and he supplied value last year in the form of a .281 AVG, 93 R, and 19 SB.  And that was despite a few really bad months last year.  So O-Cab is worth considering if you can take the hit in power.  Akinori Iwamura is another who can give you AVG, R, and SB.
• Mike Fontenot hit 4 HR in April, but he's been M.I.A. in May.  The Cubs want his left-handed power and infield glove, so they'll keep hoping he breaks out of the slump.
• Sometimes, like with Rick Porcello, you have to ignore the projections and pay attention to the talent.  Maybe Elvis Andrus is the same way?  He's only 20, and he's having a decent May.  He sometimes bats second in the Rangers' high-powered lineup and has the potential to steal 30.
• Edgar Renteria, once he returns to the lineup later this week, could be a guy like O-Cab who at least gives you OK counting stats.
• Alberto Callaspo never strikes out, so he really may be able to hit .300.  But he doesn't do much else.  Cristian Guzman is available in some shallower leagues; he is the more proven version of Callaspo.
• Ben Zobrist's numbers are quite good, assuming he finds playing time.
• I have a league where Kelly Johnson and Placido Polanco are available (I dropped KJ for Guzman).  I liked both 2Bs in the preseason and the season is only 1/4 over.

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Shortstop Rankings

Time to rank the shortstops for 12-team mixed leagues (assuming the normal 14 hitters).  Though I typically use 20 games for eligibility, I am including Alexei Ramirez here since he'll qualify shortly into the '09 season.  Felipe Lopez missed the cut by seven games and his not expected to play shortstop; he'd rank 13th.  Draft round in parentheses.

1. Hanley Ramirez - $40.33 (1)
2. Jose Reyes - $40.15 (1)
3. Jimmy Rollins - $27.72 (1)
4. Alexei Ramirez - $17.27 (5)
5. Rafael Furcal - $15.99 (6)
6. Derek Jeter - $13.27 (9)
7. Troy Tulowitzki - $11.95 (9)
8. J.J. Hardy - $11.86 (10)
9. Jhonny Peralta - $11.80 (9)
10. Michael Young - $10.53 (7)
11. Miguel Tejada - $9.74 (10)
12. Stephen Drew - $8.67 (8)
13. Orlando Cabrera - $6.03 (14)
14. Mike Aviles - $5.77 (13)
15. Edgar Renteria - $4.32 (23)
16. Ryan Theriot - $3.98 (16)
17. Yunel Escobar - $3.34 (16)
18. Cristian Guzman - $2.40 (25)
19. Asdrubal Cabrera - $2.39 (28)
20. Khalil Greene - $1.00 (19)
21. Jed Lowrie - $0.40 (23)
22. Jason Bartlett - $0.36 (21)

Jerry Hairston Jr. and Brandon Wood are two who would become interesting with more playing time.

Since we last discussed Drew, I've refined by dollar value while holding his ranking in a similar spot.  I know finite24 is a big Drew believer; here's his case.

As you can see, no one can hold a handle to Hanley or Reyes.  If you have a shot at one, you have to take it.

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Stephen Drew Examined

Diamondbacks shortstop Stephen Drew is a popular undervalued/sleeper pick this year.  He's being drafted sixth among shortstops, typically in the 8th round.  Drew, 26 in March, posted a fantasy line of .291-21-67-91-3 in 611 ABs last year.  What's more, his second half production, if replicated over 600 ABs, would come to .326-20-76-96-2 (a $16 value).

If Drew does manage to replicate his second half work over a full season, it'd be hard to argue that he'd be the fourth-ranked fantasy shortstop.

I have a safer projection for Drew: .277-18-72-80-4 in 565 ABs.  This line has him ranked 13th at the position, worth less than $4.

If you think Drew is more capable of something like .290-20-75-85-5, then he is creeping into Michael Young/Derek Jeter value.  Drew is right around his peak age, so there is something to be said for taking the upside guy over these two declining veterans (or an injury risk, Rafael Furcal).  I would like to see Drew run more.  Otherwise I remain unconvinced that I can't get similar production from Miguel Tejada,  Jhonny Peralta, Troy Tulowitzki, and J.J. Hardy later in the draft.

I should add that Alexei Ramirez slots in as my fourth-ranked SS if his 16 games played there in 2008 cuts it for your league.  Certainly can't go wrong with him at 2B though.

If you're picking top four, you can probably get Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez.  If you have the fifth through ninth pick, you can take Jimmy Rollins.  Those three are so far above the other shortstops that I make every effort to get one.  Beyond that trio you have to settle for a shortstop that is flawed in some way.

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Power/Speed Shortstops

Looking for double digit HRs and SBs from your shortstop?  At this point I'm projecting six options:

• Jose Reyes
• Hanley Ramirez
• Jimmy Rollins
• Alexei Ramirez
• Rafael Furcal
• Derek Jeter

If you don't spring for one of the first-rounders, you're looking at Ramirez (fifth round), Furcal (sixth round), and Jeter (eighth round).  All three have their flaws, but Alexei interests me the most.  Sophomore slump or a leap into fantasy stardom?

Five other shortstops who could sneak into double digits in both HRs and SBs: Michael Young, Mike Aviles, Edgar Renteria, Felipe Lopez (assuming 13 games cuts it), and Asdrubal Cabrera.  Three with playing time questions: Brandon Wood, Clint Barmes, and Ben Zobrist.

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Podhorzer On Tulowitzki

Mike Podhorzer takes a nice look at Troy Tulowitzki's lost season in a post today.  He explains that Tulo's 2007 season seems more of an outlier than his '08.

I considered Tulowitzki a reach in the fourth round last March.  However, I was also a big Rafael Furcal booster and wasn't particularly impressed by Stephen Drew or J.J. Hardy.  I have five fantasy teams this year, and shortstop is currently manned by Jimmy Rollins, Michael Young (twice), Mike Aviles, and Cristian Guzman.  I also managed to snag Alexei Ramirez in one league.  So, I recovered decently after drafting/acquiring Furcal in three of five leagues.  Everyone deals with injuries; you just have to move on.

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2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Shortstops

Sleepers, undervalued, profitable players, call 'em what you will.  In general, some guys who may not be getting enough respect in your mixed league.

• I would be concerned if I didn't get a Top 8 shortstop: Reyes, Ramirez, Rollins, Jeter, Furcal, Guillen, Young, Tulo.  Jeter and Tulo are reaches in the fourth round, so I often find myself with Furcal or Young in the sixth or seventh.  Tejada in the seventh: not for me.
• Orlando Cabrera around the 11th round is not a bad pick.  Say he hits .300 with 90 runs and 20 steals, he's right up there with Furcal, Guillen, Young, and Tulo.
• Julio Lugo in the 20th round is solid, maybe for your MI slot based on your needs.  I see something like .270-8-55-70-25.
• J.J. Hardy and Khalil Greene don't impress me - if either is your starting shortstop, you screwed up.
• Stephen Drew's a popular sleeper pick...if it's a 12 team mixed non-keeper league I'd pass.  If it's deeper or keeper then sure.
• Ronny Cedeno might be able to sneak in and earn a few bucks if he's traded to Baltimore.
• If I squint hard enough I can almost picture Yuniesky Betancourt as a sleeper.  He's 26, he could add some power and swipe ten.
• Anyone else you like as a shortstop sleeper?

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