Shortstops

Stock Watch: Scandalmakers and Struggling Shortstops

This week on Stock Watch, we're trying out something a little different. Not a lot different--don't worry--but there's been a bit of news out there that might affect your fantasy team....

Biogenesis Scandal

By now, you've probably heard more about this scandal than you care to, and--unlike the witch-hunting masses--your main worry is probably about whether your fantasy stars will be suspended and for how long. You're probably wondering what to do with players like ****** and ****, let alone *******. That's right--I didn't include their names! Why? Because none of the players involved has yet been proved guilty of anything, and none of them need their reputations tarnished by me any more than already has been. But I also need to provide useful fantasy advice, so I'll take the via media of linking to an article that mentions the players you should be concerned about. Among them are superstars, minor leaguers, rookies, veterans, and just about everyone else. 

Who will be suspended and for how long? I can't say. How long will the process take? Still don't know. Will players who've already received PED suspensions get more punishment? Tough to say, but the one bet I wouldn't make is for this process to be carried out in a way that's transparent or fair. Maybe I'm overly pessimistic about MLB's anti-PED unit, but that seems the safest route to me. While the players implicated haven't failed tests, they don't need to to get suspended. Many are mentioned by name in Tony Bosch's ledgers, but others are in by code name or mere association. It might be worth mentioning that Mr. Bosch has plenty of incentive to roll on Major Leaguers, the bigger the names, the better. More worrisome for owners is the report that MLB has" tons of witnesses" to corroborate the allegations. (Report from RotoAuthority alum, Mike Axisa.)

What to do if you own these players? I own several across a few leagues (though I did shy away from most during drafts), and I'm standing pat. Right now will be a very difficult time to trade these guys, because your leaguemates will be watching as much ESPN as you, and you aren't likely to get much value from them if you shop them. Trading for them doesn't seem like a great strategy either, as you may be paying for useless assets. If you want to shoot off some lowball offers, go for it, as the strategy could pay off big, despite a low probability of success. By the same token, if someone offers you, say, 70-80% value on a big-name player, make that trade and hope for the best. And, of course, keep following along with the news to see what happens next.

One guy you might not have to worry about--and whose name I don't mind mentioning--is Gio Gonzalez. Reportedly, he is mentioned but exonerated by the evidence found at Biogenesis, having only purchased legal and unbanned substances. Good news for Gio owners. If you happen to find yourself looking at a good deal for him, pull the trigger.

A final thought is that the suspensions handed out may be lengthy--perhaps 100 games, perhaps more--but they will probably not include lifetime bans. This may be a great opportunity to get quality players on your keeper roster for a low price--especially if you're already out of contention this year. Note that this is a pretty long-term plan, as some of the repercussions of the scandal may last into next season.

The most important thing to do is not to panic and make a bad deal, as any suspensions handed out may take a long time to end up happening--others may not happen at all.

Struggling Shortstops

Most shortstops are bad fantasy players--we all know this. That's why we spend so much auction money or used high draft picks to get the few who can hit. This year, not only are several injured (Jose Reyes, Derek Jeter, Asdrubal Cabrera), most of the other top choices have been pretty terrible.

Ben Zobrist
After putting up consecutive 20-HR seasons and enjoying Swiss-Army position flexibility, Zobrist was one of fantasy's hottest commodities going into the season. He's on most of my fantasy teams, making me glad that I decided to diversify and stay away from him in my final draft of the season. His slugging is down over .100 points, as he's hit just three homers. His batting average is down significantly, despite a BABIP in line with his career norms. His LD% is down and his HR/FB rate has absolutely cratered. The only good news is that his K%, BB%, and OBP haven't taken big hits, but the Rays care more about those numbers than our fantasy teams do. While Zobrist might well bust out of his protracted power slump, his age might be catching up to him. He may only be 32, but he didn't break out until age 27. Late  success is often an indicator of early decline. Sell him if you still can.

Starlin Castro
Another well-hyped early-rounder, Castro was drafted a bit for the success he's already had and a lot for the success he was expected to grow into. He may still grow into a superstar, but maybe the fantasy community was a bit premature drafting him like he already was one. His steals are down, his homers are down and his low-walk nature has kept him from getting on base in spite of his low average. Like Zobrist, his BABIP isn't bad (it's a nearly-average .296). Compared to last year, Castro is hitting slightly fewer line drives, popping up less, and grounding out a bit more. It's tough to be sure why his average is struggling so much, but slumps are a part of playing baseball, especially for young players. He's a good (but not slam-dunk) candidate to improve, so I'd call him a cautious buy.

Jimmy Rollins
At 34, Rollins is a pretty old shortstop, but unlike Ben Zobrist, he came up to the Majors at a young age and had a strong peak as one of the game's top stars. His years have been pretty up-and-down lately, but last year was an up, with 23 homers and 30 steals. This year has not been so good, with just four homers and six steals, despite a batting average and OBP better than what he put up last year. At .293, his BABIP is the highest it's been since 2007, but his HR/FB is his worst since 2003. Shortstops aren't expected to carry power or speed into their mid-30's and it's entirely possible that Rollins' bat and legs have slowed down. Then again, he gave us that impression for all of 2010 and managed to bounce back. Still, I'd say he's a cautious sell.

I was going to talk about Ian Desmond next, but his recent homers put his numbers in a pretty decent place--enough to make him one of the better shortstops this season.

Good luck navigating this week's muddy waters--and pick up Zack Wheeler and Gerrit Cole  if you still can.

 

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Go Bold or Go Home: Ben Zobrist Is a Top-30 Fantasy Pick

You may have read about the ongoing campaign to have a Robocop statue built in downtown Detroit, a project I fully support, by the way.  More cities totally need to build tributes to their pop culture icons; there is no good reason why we couldn't have a bronze Heisenberg erected in downtown Albuquerque by the end of the year.  Besides, a Robocop statue would be a nice companion piece to the Zobocop statue that fantasy owners built in 2012 in honor of Ben Zobrist's three-position eligibility.

Ah, Zobrist as a shortstop.  Just remembering that wonderful day last summer when the Rays experimented with moving the Rock Zobster back to short brings a smile to my face.  Zobrist began his career as a shortstop, of course, and took to the position again with little issue, making Joe Maddon a hero to fantasy owners everywhere. 

Now, I may be praising this situation because it specifically helped me out of a fix in a league last year, but I couldn't have been the only one.  I'd drafted Troy Tulowitzki as my starting shortstop and watched in horror as his season was halted at the end of May.  That left me with a big hole at SS and given that Yunel Escobar (my backup) was also struggling and the middle infield waiver wire was as barren as ever, I was in a tight spot...until Zobrist began getting starts at short.  Zobrist owners the world over joyously counted down the days until he officially gained eligibility and then, my shortstop problem was solved; I just slid Sheriff Zobo from outfield to short and boom, I was set. 

There's nothing that fantasy owners appreciate more than options.  We all love to embrace our inner Joe Maddon and mix and match our lineups whenever possible since (let's be honest) it's kind of an ego boost.  This is why, with apologies to Jose Oquendo, Zobrist became the Secret Weapon of the 2012 fantasy baseball season.  His dual eligibility as both an outfielder and a second baseman was already valuable, and adding shortstop to the mix just shot his usefulness through the roof.

It's for this reason that I would jump on Zobrist as quickly as possible in your upcoming draft.  It blows my mind that the Mask of Zobo only has a 72.23 ADP in Mock Draft Central's most recent average draft position report and is, on average, the 68th player taken.  That means in your standard 12-team league, Zobrist is still available by the sixth round, making him an incredible bargain at that stage of the game. 

If you're in a league with no bench spots on your roster, I'd argue that Zobrist could be a second-round pick given that his versatility will allow you some precious flexibility in a roster setup that specifically limits flexibility.  Even in a standard 5x5 league with bench spots, however, I'd say that Zobrist should go no lower than the third round based on sheer production alone.

While everyone was fixated on the "SS" designation next to his name last season, let's not overlook the fact that Zobrist hit .270/.377/.471 with 20 homers, 74 RBI, 88 runs and 14 steals.  That's a good season no matter where you play on the field, but it's particularly valuable at the middle infield spots.  Zobrist's .848 OPS was topped by only two second basemen (Robinson Cano and Aaron Hill) and exactly ZERO shortstops; Ian Desmond came closest at .845.  Even at the deeper outfield position, only thirteen outfielders posted higher OPS marks than Zobrist in 2012.

The warning signs on Zobrist are his age (he turns 32 in May) and the fact that he has been having greater difficulty hitting at Tropicana Field in recent years, as evidenced by his large home/road splits (.916 OPS away/.773 home in 2012, .897 away/.738 home in 2011).  That said, I'll worry about a decline when I start to actually see signs, and to me, Leelee Zobieski seems like a pretty safe bet to at least replicate his 2012 numbers in 2013. 

That alone would make him arguably the top fantasy shortstop given how many question marks surround the other top-rated SS candidates, though I suspect the continually-improving Desmond and a healthy Tulowitzki will be at the top of the heap come season's end.  Amongst the top second basemen, I'd put Zobrist behind only Cano and Hill, as I agree with Alex Steers McCrum's evaluation of Hill and I've already outlined some of the concerns facing other highly-drafted second basemen.

Taking Zobrist early means you can essentially cover two of the traditionally-shallowest positions right off the bat and then focus on middle infield help later if one of your sleepers is still around in the ninth or tenth round.  Like real-life general managers, your draft strategy can become "picking the best player available" without worrying too much about position since you've already got the Swiss Army Zobrist on your roster.  Given the volatility of those middle infield spots, Zobrist can also be shifted partway through the season if that sleeper you liked in your draft never actually wakes up during the season.

It's just simple fantasy logic that a player who can play three positions is more valuable than a player who can play only one, if everything else is equal.  Dustin Pedroia may hit as well as Zobrist in 2013 or even better but I'll still take Zobrist first since Zobo The Greek has more innate value within the actual game of fantasy baseball.  His versatility can help you as much as it helps the Rays in real life, so don't hesitate to jump on Zobrist early in your draft.  If my advice pays off, you can build a statue in my honor.

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Draft Round Battles: Starlin Castro Vs. Jose Reyes

"Mark, is this seriously your matchup?"

Yep.

"Geez, this column will be pretty short.  It's Jose Reyes, man!  All-Star staple, centerpiece of the offseason's biggest trade, playing in a stacked lineup in Toronto...heck, if Troy Tulowitzki struggles coming back from injury or Hanley Ramirez's career continues to stall, Reyes is probably the best shortstop in the game.  This one is a no-brainer!"

Or is it, imaginary straw man character I invented for the purposes of this post?

"Wait, I'm imaginary?"

Well, yes, but... 

"AHHH, I'M FICTIONAL!  OH, THE UNIMAGINABLE SORROW OF LEARNING THAT ONE'S EXISTENCE IS A LIE!"

Huh.  Who would've thought that a fantasy baseball column would contain such existential pathos?  Then again, for all the Cubs fans reading this, you're used to questioning the meaning of life, right?  #1908 #BillyGoat #Cheapshot 

Anyway, let's end this little skit and get down to business.  (Plus, as a Maple Leafs fan, I have no right to mock another team's championship drought.)  This is a matchup that, as noted, seems pretty clear on paper.  Reyes has been a good-to-superb fantasy option for a decade while Starlin Castro has had a very good start to his Major League career but, in the words of Roto Authority's own Alex Steers McCrum, is "a little bit overrated" in terms of what he brings to the table, fantasy-wise.

So, it may surprise you to learn that Castro and Reyes are neck-and-neck on Mock Draft Central's latest average draft position reports.  Castro has a 36.57 ADP, making him the third shortstop and 35th player taken overall.  Reyes is literally right behind, as the 36th player taken overall and the owner of a 36.91 ADP. What gives?  Is this a case of fans continuing to "overrate" Castro or thinking Reyes is going downhill since he didn't duplicate his all-world 2011 season?

It might not be that stark but rather simply a case of fantasy managers drafting for the future rather than the past.  In picking Castro over Reyes, you're picking a shortstop who has put up a .297/.336/.425 line over his first three Major League seasons, with 162-game averages of 10 homers, 67 RBI, 81 runs and 21 steals. Castro doesn't even turn 23 until later this month, so it's possible he's only just scratched the surface of his potential. 

Castro does indeed get a lot of hype as the Cubs' next great hope and star of the future, so fantasy owners who draft him on that basis tend to be let down since they're expecting the second coming of Derek Jeter.  Yet, as noted, Castro has been pretty good; this isn't an Alex Gordon or Eric Hosmer case, when you have a guy that's dead weight in your fantasy lineup while you're waiting for the breakout to happen. Castro has helped many a fantasy squad and could become a cornerstone player if he makes the leap in 2013.

And even if the leap doesn't happen quite yet, there's a certain stability in Castro since you know what he'll bring to the table.  He might not get significantly better but I highly doubt he'll get worse --- at a minimum, he'll repeat his .753 OPS, 14 HR, 78 RBI, 25 SB season from 2012.  Castro still has Wrigley Field to work with, he has the security of a long-term extension and he'll have a full season of Anthony Rizzo hitting behind him, even if the Cubs lineup isn't so hot overall.

Compare this stability to Reyes' situation heading into 2013.  I should note that, despite my forthcoming devil's advocate arguments, I still expect Reyes to have a very good season; it's just that more things could go wrong for Reyes this year.  His move to Toronto indeed puts him atop a deep batting order so there's plenty of room for run-scoring opportunities, but it's also a move to a brand new league and an artificial surface, so Reyes could have trouble adjusting.  While Reyes has spent his career hitting in pitcher-friendly ballparks in Queens and Miami, he'll be moving to a good hitters' park in Toronto but it's worth noting that Reyes' game (based around gap power and speed) was very well suited to his past stadia and he has only a career .748 OPS in away games.

Perhaps the most worrisome number associated with Reyes, however, is the fact that he'll turn 30 years old in June.  It's a red flag age for any player but particularly a player like Reyes whose game is so reliant on his legs.  According to Fangraphs, Reyes had the lowest full-season speed score (7.1) of his career in 2012.  Reyes' base-stealing is his biggest edge over Castro (40 SB to Castro's 25 last season) but if that gap continues to narrow, then they're basically the same offensive player, with Reyes holding an edge in runs but Castro ahead in the power numbers.  And of course, Castro's power numbers are likely to only go up, while it's not like Reyes will suddenly get faster as he ages.

As I said, I still think Reyes will be a good player in 2013.  While I hate to dabble in intangibles, he could be energized by playing for a Jays squad that should be in the playoff hunt all season long.  If both he and Castro are on the board when you're picking at the end of the third/start of the fourth round, however, I might bite the bullet and draft Castro just for pure ceiling reasons.  I submit that Reyes is unlikely to revert to his .877 OPS form from 2011 and will probably resemble the player he was last year with the Marlins.  Castro, on the other hand, already came close to matching Reyes' numbers and has nowhere to go but up.

"WAIT, SO NOT ONLY WAS MY REALITY SHATTERED BY MY DISCOVERY THAT I'M A FICTIONAL CONSTRUCT, BUT I PICKED THE WRONG SHORTSTOP FOR MY FANTASY TEAM?!?!"

Well, not the 'wrong' shortstop, just maybe the slightly riskier....

"AAAAHHHHHHHH!" 

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2013 Position Rankings: Shortstops

You know what I hate? Drafting a shortstop. When you go with a top quality guy, you're still getting a player with some kind of serious flaw. When you wait until late in the draft, you get someone who doesn't even have the bat for second base or catcher. My solution: create your own league, in which shortstops are disallowed. Until then, enjoy our tiered rankings.

Just as we've done previously, with Third Basemen, Second Basemen, First Basemen, Outfielders, and Catchers, these rankings come from a team discussion, featuring Tim Dierkes and the entire RotoAuthority staff; they go 30 players deep this time. They're divided into groups of similar value, and tiered by where they deserve to be drafted in a standard league. If you're bidding in an auction, consider players in the same tier to be of similar price. If a player has other positions in parentheses, that means you can draft and start him there. Since they're shortstops, at the very bottom of the position scarcity barrel, this ranking will reflect their real draft value. If you're taking, say, Ben Zobrist, as an OF, discount his price a little.

2nd Round

1. Troy Tulowitzki, COL

You know things are rough at the position when the top guy missed essentially all of last year. He's either a bargain, as a player with top-of-the-first-round value, or a huge overpay, thanks to another massive injury. Go for it.

3rd Round

2. Hanley Ramirez, LAD (3B)
3. Jose Reyes, TOR

Hanley could be in the middle of a long return to form, so I could see him improving to something near what we used to see with the Marlins. Reyes should be a three-category beast at the top of Toronto's lineup, but he'll be a liability in HR's and RBI's.

4th Round

4. Ben Zobrist, TBR (2B, OF)
5. Starlin Castro, CHC

Zobrist does a bit of everything and he can back you up at second and in the outfield, if you somehow need that. Castro is a very good player, and a little bit overrated. He could improve, but I'd rather pay for the guy he actually is: good average, good speed, a few homers, and a lousy lineup to keep down the Runs and RBI's.

5th-6th Rounds

6. Ian Desmond, WAS

Desmond broke out like crazy last year, placing himself with the top power hitters in the middle infield, while still stealing 21 bases. He's going in the 7th round in mock drafts, and I think it's worth the risk that he falls back to earth to get him on your team.

7th-8th Rounds

7. Jimmy Rollins, PHI
8. Danny Espinosa, WAS (2B)

Rollins, once among the shortstop elite, stole 30 bases and clubbed 23 homers last year. You'd think that would be enough for him to regain his former status, but a lousy batting average, increasing age, and the downward trend in his overall production are keeping his price down. Yes, I think he's going the wrong way, but I don't think that the end is here--he's got a lot of room to fall before he stops being useful. Espinosa is trending the other direction and he's still young, which is what keeps his value near that of Rollins. A 20-20 season is possible, and he'll benefit from hitting in a good lineup, if probably from the back of it.

12th-13th Rounds

9. Derek Jeter, NYY
10. Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE

Jeter is old, yes. Jeter isn't the player he used to be, yes. And I'd still want the batting average and runs scored that he brings to the table over anything you'll see below him on this list. Cabrera doesn't hurt you anywhere--not even in home runs--but he doesn't really help, either. Pronunciation aside, is there any more boring name you can call out in your draft? A player like this shouldn't be reached for.

15th-16th Rounds

11. Elvis Andrus, TEX
12. Alcides Escobar, KCR

You know what you see here? The brand name and the generic version. No power, decent average, good steals and a place at the top of the order. Escobar was more valuable last year, but Andrus gets a slight nod for setting the table for better hitters.

17th-18th Rounds

13. J.J. Hardy, BAL
14. Everth Cabrera, SDP
15. Josh Rutledge, COL
16. Andrelton Simmons, ATL

Since the position's starters are presumably taken by the time you get to these guys, consider them the shortstops worth using at MI. Hardy has better power than most of the players above him, and Cabrera could be an impact base stealer, to the tune of 50 or more. Rutledge is a Colorado guy and he'll probably gain 2B eligibility. The chance that he hits more than a few homers isn't bad. Simmons is being given the keys to Atlanta's shortstop job, and he could end up being a speed and batting average type of player.

19th-20th Rounds

17. Marco Scutaro, SFG (2B)
18. Alexei Ramirez, CHW
19. Erick Aybar, LAA 

Scutaro will almost certainly regress next year. That's okay, though, because he still gets value from his versatility. Ramirez took a big step back last year, after being one of shortstop's more dependable players for the past couple years. His new level is still capable of backing up your starter. Aybar is a pleasantly harmless backup, but don't wait so long that you're starting him, event at middle infield.

21st-22nd Rounds

20. Jed Lowrie, OAK
21. Zack Cozart, CIN
22. Jhonny Peralta, DET
23. Stephen Drew, BOS

Lowrie may not get full playing time, and he isn't the healthiest kid in school, but he sure can hit. Cozart and Peralta don't do much, but you don't ask that much of a backup, which is strictly what you should be looking for with them. Drew is like Lowrie, but with less upside. Importantly, it isn't zero upside. As a side benefit, everyone in this tier but Lowrie should be able to enjoy the benefits of hitting in a powerful lineup.

23rd Round and Beyond

24. Jurickson Profar, TEX
25. Jean Segura, MIL
26. Hiroyuki Nakajima, OAK
27. Yunel Escobar, TBR
28. Cliff Pennington, ARI (2B) 
29. Jamey Carroll, MIN (2B, 3B)
30. Tyler Greene, HOU (2B)
 

If you're in a shallow league, I wouldn't bother with prospects with no job, like Profar or Billy Hamilton. If you're in a deep league, the time to take those guys is when all the shallow-leaguers are gone. If someone else wants to overpay, let 'em. Segura isn't a huge upside player, but he does have some, and he makes a good end-game play because he should have the starting job on Opening Day. Nakajima is in a similar vein, but even harder to predict, being from Japan and all. Escobar has a higher floor than most of the players out here. Pennington, Carroll, and Greene are only here because they can back up multiple positions, but even that's better than nothing. 

Shortstop is a rough place to be a fantasy drafter, but you can find some decent values throughout the draft. In some ways, I think it's actually a little easier to manage than second base, simply because your expectations are (fairly) set so low. Hits a few homers and does nothing else. Cool. Steals a ton of bases but kills my power categories. Great. Missed all of last season. All-Star.

There are four shortstops ranked as third or fourth-rounders, but if you can, I'd probably avoid all of them. The overall scarcity of power makes me prefer to go after a slugging outfielder or third baseman at that time. Instead, I'd probably want to be among the later teams to get a shortstop, but double up on players with disparate skill sets, like J.J. Hardy and Everth Cabrera, or Alcides Escobar and Josh Rutledge.

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Sleepers & Busts: Shortstop Speedsters

Elvis Andrus, TEX - ADP 130

One year ago, Andrus entered the season ranked as a Top 5 shortstop by most rankings. A year later, he's dropped to the No. 8 shortstop over at Mock Draft Central, and while that's more accurate, I still feel like if you draft him at his current position you're paying for the name more than the production.

Andrus' average has risen steadily each of the past three years, but that doesn't mean it's safe to expect growth from last year's .286. Andrus' jump from 2010-11 was the result of a markedly increased line-drive rate (19.3 percent to 23.1 percent) and a reduction in his infield pop-ups. Both of those numbers took steps back last season, but his average leapt again based on his .332 BABIP. That's a healthy jump from the .312 mark he carried into last season.

Andrus' stolen base total dropped to 21, and it did so thanks to a paltry 67.7 percent success rate in 31 attempts. Since going 33-for-39 (84.6 percent) in his rookie season, Andrus has gone 90-for-127 (70.8 percent) from 2010-12. While he runs a lot, he's not exactly a great base stealer, and last season was the worst of them all.

He'll also lose the added benefit of Josh Hamilton driving him in. Mike Napoli, too, is gone. The Rangers' lineup in general doesn't look as threatening as it once did, given Hamilton's departure and an aging Nelson Cruz. It's still solid, but it's fair to expect a decrease in runs for Andrus given the changes.

Elvis is still just 24 years old, so he could surprise with some power, but over four years he's basically been a steals-and-runs shortstop, and there's plenty of reason to believe he'll disappoint in both of those categories in 2013. Still, he comes off the board before Dan Haren, Greg Holland, Matt Moore, Salvador Perez and a host other players, including the comparable Alcides Escobar. I'd pass at his current slot.

Final Ruling: Bust

Alcides Escobar, KC - ADP 215

Speaking of Alcides, he's coming off the board a full 85 picks later. That's seven full rounds of difference between shortstops who went .293-68-5-52-35 (Escobar) and .286-85-3-62-21 (Andrus).

Andrus clearly wins in the runs and RBI departments, but Escobar stands to make up a lot of ground as the Royals' projected No. 2 hitter in 2013. After spending the first three months of the year primarily in the 7, 8 and 9 spots for Kansas City, Escobar jumped to the two-hole and never looked back on July 1. He scored 39 of his 68 runs in those 81 games (58 percent) and picked up 32 of his 52 RBIs (62 percent).

Unlike Andrus, Escobar is an 81.3 percent base stealer since being traded to Kansas City (61-for-75), and last season's 35-for-40 (87.5 percent) effort was remarkable. It's fair to expect a step back in last year's 23 percent line-drive rate, which would lower his .344 BABIP and .293 average. Still, Escobar finds himself coming off the board in the late 17th round -- after the likes of Hisashi Iwakuma, Trevor Cahill, Wade Miley, Mark Reynolds, Justin Ruggiano and Dustin Ackley. If you're looking for a shortstop and/or speed in the tenth round, wait back and grab Escobar three or four rounds later instead of taking Andrus. 

Final Ruling: Sleeper

Everth Cabrera, SD - ADP 269

Cabrera is primarily a one-trick pony in his own right, but it's quite the trick. The 25-year-old led the National League in stolen bases last season despite playing in just 115 games. Cabrera swiped 44 bases in 48 (!) attempts -- good for a mind-blowing 91.6 percent success rate.

Cabrera only hit .246 last season, but he did so with a solid enough 9.6 percent walk rate that he got on base at a .324 clip. Even if he repeats his ho-hum batting average, he'll reach enough to burn up the base paths and set the table for Chase Headley, Carlos Quentin and possibly Jedd Gyorko.

There's reason for optimism with Cabrera's average, though. He's a strict line-drive (19.1 percent) and ground-ball (60.7 percent) hitter. Cabrera only hit fly balls 20.2 percent of the time -- an excellent trait for someone with his skill set. Granted, it means he's not likely to take advantage Petco Park's new hitter-friendly right field dimensions, but if you're drafting E-Cab with power in mind you've erred somewhere along the way.

Cabrera's .702 batting average on liners last season was below the league average. If he can raise that number and cut down on his strikeouts as he did in Triple-A (17.3 percent K-rate vs. 24.5 percent in the Majors), there's room for him to improve his average. His main problem is that he simply needs to be more aggressive. Cabrera doesn't swing outside the zone because he simply doesn't swing much at all. He swung at just 41.2 percent of the league's offerings (46 is average).

With a full season near the top of the order, Cabrera could surpass 70 runs and 50 steals. With an uptick in average, he has a great shot to outperform his 22nd-round ranking. Yet Cabrera is coming off the board around the same time as minor leaguers Mike Olt, Leonys Martin and Travis d'Arnaud; non-closers David Hernandez and Vinnie Pestano; and innings eaters like Jason Vargas and Brett Myers. He's worth reaching on several rounds early, as the upside is far greater than most of his peers at that stage in the draft.

Final Ruling: Sleeper

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Three September Call-Ups To Watch For

The calendar turns over to September this Saturday, meaning clubs will expand their rosters and call-up extra players for the stretch run. Most September call-ups are spare parts - third catchers, extra left-handed relievers, etc. - but every so often a team will bring a top prospect to the big leagues and give him a month's worth of playing time. David Price and Francisco Rodriguez are the two most notable September call-ups in recent memory, as both went on to become key components of a deep playoff run. Impact like that is the exception though, not the rule. Here are three high-end prospects who could make their way to the big leagues next month and actually have some fantasy value...

Jurickson Profar | SS | Texas Rangers

The 19-year-old wunderkind from Curacao has emerged as baseball's top prospect this summer. Profar has hit .280/.367/.452 with 14 homers and 16 steals in Double-A this season, which is insane production given his age relative to the competition. It's worth noting that he's played some games at second base lately and in each of the last two games, he was used off the bench as a pinch-hitter. It's very possible the Rangers are preparing him for a call-up, though Jeff Wilson of The Fort Worth Star-Telegram says it may not happen until the end of the Double-A postseason.

Fantasy owners should keep the plight of Mike Olt in mind when considering Profar's fantasy impact. Texas called up their other elite prospect in early-August and he's gotten just 32 plate appearances so far, including only six starts in 26 team games. Perhaps things will be different later in September after the Rangers clinch a playoff berth, but I would be skeptical right now. Profar is a definite keeper long-term, but his 2012 impact may be severely limited.

Wil Myers | OF | Kansas City Royals

After starring at the Futures Game in Kansas City and for most of the season in Triple-A, the 21-year-old Myers may finally get a chance to crack the outfield in Kauffman Stadium next month. He's hit a whopping .307/.384/.589 with 35 homers in 568 total plate appearances, pretty much confirming that he's ready for the next level. Calling up Myers could require the team to either finally bench Jeff Francoeur or sit Lorenzo Cain, the latter of whom might actually have a future with the team. If he does get the call and does play everyday in some outfield position, Myers could be a nice little late-season boost for fantasy owners, potentially chipping in something like 5-6 homers the rest of the way. That's nothing to sneeze at.

Shelby Miller | SP | St. Louis Cardinals

Earlier this week Joe Strauss of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported (on Twitter) that there is a "strong sentiment" within the organization to promote Miller, the 21-year-old flamethrower who's pitched to a 4.89 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 130 2/3 Triple-A innings this year. Those numbers aren't all that impressive overall, but the right-hander has a 57/4 K/BB in his last eight starts and seems to have figured some things out.

If the Cardinals do recall Miller next month, they'll have the option to use him out of the bullpen or instead of Joe Kelly in the rotation. I wouldn't count on him replacing Jason Motte as closer, so he would have the most fantasy value as a starter. The September schedule is loaded with intra-division games as always, meaning a whole lotta games against the lowly Astros and Cubs. St. Louis also has a West Coast swing through San Diego and Los Angeles on their slate, adding two top pitcher's parks into the mix. Miller definitely offers some impact potential going forward, assuming the club actually decides to call him up and insert him into the rotation down the stretch.

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Orioles Make Manny Machado A Surprise Call-Up

Despite having the fourth worst run differential in the American League (-47), the surprising Orioles remain right in the thick of the AL East race thanks to their insane 22-6 record in one-run games and 12-2 record in extra-inning games. They're 4.5 games back of the Yankees in the division and tied for one of the two Wild Card spots because their dynamite bullpen (3.04 ERA) keeps them in every tight game.

The Orioles are not without their faults though, and through yesterday's game they had received some of the worst third base production in the league at .246/.319/.406. Wilson Betemit has seen the majority of the action at the hot corner, but Mark Reynolds, Robert Andino, Ryan Flaherty, and Steven Tolleson have also gotten some reps at third. With their first winning record since 1997 staring them in the face, Baltimore decided to recall top shortstop prospect Manny Machado from Double-A after last night's game with the idea of installing him at third. He's expected to be in today's lineup.

Machado, 20, was ranked as the 11th best prospect in the game by Baseball America this spring before placing ninth in their recent midseason update. The third overall pick in the 2010 draft has played exactly two games at third base in his minor league career, both this year at Double-A. The rest have been at shortstop with a few DH starts sprinkled in. The kid's going to be learning the position on the fly in the big leagues, which isn't an easy thing to do.

Furthermore, this isn't exactly a case of a player forcing the team's hand. Machado was having a very strong season in Double-A for a kid his age - .266/.352/.438 with 11 homers - but it's hardly a performance that screams "call me up, I'm big league ready!" That's why the move is very aggressive on the part of the Orioles, but they do deserve some credit for being gutsy enough to do it. New GM Dan Duquette seems intent on winning this year.

Machado is already shortstop-eligible in most fantasy leagues and will pick up third base eligibility soon enough. He's a legitimate power bat with some stolen base ability, but he's more of a middle of the order guy than a tablesetter, or at least he's expected to be in time. Dan Syzmborski's ZiPS projection system considered Machado a true talent .248/.303/.389 hitter (with 13 homers) at the big league level coming into the season, which is just a snapshot in time. That's the expectation for the 20-year-old kid jumping right into the show, not the 27-year-old future version in the peak of his career.

As excellent as Machado is as a prospect, he's not Mike Trout (or even Bryce Harper) and expecting that kind of immediate impact would be a setup for disappointment. He could always smash his way to a .300 average with eight or ten homers the rest of the way, but that would be the best case scenario in a relatively small sample. Expecting even a repeat of his Double-A effort might be asking too much. Shortstop is a pretty thin fantasy position however, and if you're willing to gamble on upside there are few better players to do it with. Unless you're in a long-term keeper league, I can't advise dropping an established producer for Machado this season, especially if you're in contention. It's easy to overlook the risk part of the high-risk/high-reward moves.

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Andrelton Simmons: The Surprise Shortstop

Everyone knew the Braves were going to go young at shortstop this season. Alex Gonzalez was allowed to walk as a free agent and although Jack Wilson was retained as veteran insurance, Atlanta was going to turn the most important position on the diamond over to a kid. Up until a few weeks ago, it was all but guaranteed that the job would go to 22-year-old Tyler Pastornicky. Instead, he's struggled badly in Spring Training - .220/.230/.237 in 59 at-bats - and is "obviously pressing" according to at least one observer. March stats don't mean much, but when you're a young kid trying to win a job, it helps to make a good impression.

While Pastornicky has been busy squeezing sap out of the bat, 22-year-old Andrelton Simmons has wowed the Braves coaching staff with his stellar glovework. He's barely outhitting Pastornicky ironically enough, putting together a .186/.271/.233 batting line in 43 exhibition at-bats. It hasn't mattered though, as there remains a strong sentiment around the team that Simmons should break camp as the starting shortstop despite never playing above High Class-A ball. He was a second round pick in 2010 and hit .311/.351/.408 during his pro debut with their Carolina League affiliate last season.

Baseball America ranked Simmons as the team's fourth best prospect earlier this offseason, saying he's an "aggressive hitter" who "knows the strike zone but doesn't walk much" in the subscriber-only scouting report. "He has bat speed and can turn on fastballs, but he won't have more than gap power," they added. "An average runner, he needs to improve his reads and jumps after getting thrown out 18 times in 44 basestealing attempts." Much like Freddy Galvis of the Phillies, Simmons doesn't have a typical fantasy profile but he can be a useful piece under the right circumstances.

Simmons has two things really going for him. One, he can steal bases. He swiped 26 bags last year and 18 (in 62 games) the year before. His reads need work as the Baseball America write-up said, meaning his stolen base total won't be much help if you're in a league that counts net steals (SB minus CS). Secondly, Simmons makes a ton of contact. He struck out in just 7.5% of his plate appearances in High-A last year, a ridiculously low percentage that's well below the league average even when considering his age relative to competition. The ability to make contact (or, inversely, not make contact) translates well across minor league levels and into the big leagues, and good things tend to happen when the ball is in play. Some BABIP love could have his batting average up around .280-.290, which is valuable when combined with 20+ steals.

The ZiPS projection system is quite a fan of Simmons. They estimate his current talent level at .274/.309/.348 with 21 steals given regular playing time, putting him on par with fellow middle infielders like Alcides Escobar (.270 AVG and 25 SB), Cliff Pennington (.252 and 23), and Jemile Weeks (.262 and 21). Again, not fantasy stars but rather useful pieces to fill out a roster or help you cope during an injury. Simmons doesn't even have the job yet and frankly is an inferior fantasy option to Pastornicky, who has produced at the higher levels and has a much longer track record, but he offers some sleeper potential for late-round batting average and stolen bases, particularly in deep mixed leagues or NL-only setups.

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2012 Position Rankings: Shortstop

Shortstop is one of hardest positions on the field to fill in real life, but there are plenty of fantasy options from which to choose. There is only one bonafide fantasy superstar at short though, so he'll come off the board very early on draft day. These rankings are based on standard 12-team mixed leagues with traditional 5x5 scoring.

1. Troy Tulowitzki, COL - The undisputed top fantasy shortstop, Tulo has hit .300+ in each of the last two years and 27+ HR, 90+ RBI, and 80+ runs in each of the last three years. His stolen base total is trending downward (20 in 2009, 11 in 2010, nine in 2011), but at 27 years old, he should have no problem jumping back in the double digits if healthy.
2. Hanley Ramirez, MIA - Hanley will be manning the hot corner in Miami, but he's still going to be fantasy eligible at short. Shoulder problems hampered him for most of last season, though his ground ball rate spiked significantly in 2010 and has robbed him of both over-the-fence and doubles power. Ramirez is only 28 and figures to rebound with a healthy shoulder, but he's no longer the slam dunk elite producer he once was.
3. Jose Reyes, MIA - The days of 60+ steals appear to be a thing of the past thanks to Reyes' nagging hamstring issues, which landed him on the DL twice in 2011. He doesn't figure to give you many HR or RBI, but you will get a solid batting average, a ton of runs, and still a plethora of steals assuming he can stay on the field. As with Hanley, the team's new ballpark is a bit of an x-factor.
4. Elvis Andrus, TEX - Still just 23, Andrus is a stolen base and runs scored machine, but he's not going to give you many RBI and has hit just five homers over the last two seasons. His average has been just decent so far in his career, but he puts the ball in play (just 13.1% strikeouts in his three years) and has the wheels to leg out infield hits.
5. Jimmy Rollins, PHI - J-Roll's real life value has slipped in recent years, but he's still one of fantasy's best options at the position because he'll give you everything but RBI. Like two of the four guys ahead of him, injuries are a concern, though he did get into 142 games last season.
6. Starlin Castro, CHC - The NL leader in hits last season with 207, Castro hasn't stopped hitting since debuting in 2010. He topped double-digit homers and 20+ steals for the first time last year, and should only improve from here on out. Down expect too many RBI, but the runs will be there.
7. Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE - After hitting just 18 HR in the first 387 games of his career, Cabrera clubbed 25 in 2012 and either set or matched his career bests in RBI, runs, and steals. It's not a coincidence that he was able to avoid the DL for the first time since 2008. The HR total could take a step back, but the production in the other categories should be there.
8. Alexei Ramirez, CHW - The Cuban Missile took a step back from his 2010 production, but it's hard to complain about .269/15/70/81/7. There's no reason he shouldn't get back to stealing 10+ bases again next year, and the power numbers have always been there. Ramirez is one of the safest bets on this list, a solid performer with no standout fantasy tool.
9. J.J. Hardy, BAL - Good health and the friendly confines of Camden Yards resulted in 30 HR and solid run production numbers last summer. Hardy can do it again at age 29, but he does have a bit of injury history and won't offer much in the batting average or stolen base departments.
10. Erick Aybar, LAA - Aybar doubled his best single-season homer total last year, setting new career highs in HR (ten), RBI (59), runs (71), and steals (30). He'll likely hit in the .270's again, and having Albert Pujols in the lineup will help his fantasy production one way or the other.
11. Yunel Escobar, TOR - Escobar has hit .288+ in four of the last five years, but he's also missed some time due to injury each year. The double-digit homer potential is in there despite his astronomical ground ball rate, and he'll score a ton of runs hitting in front of Jose Bautista & Co.
12. Derek Jeter, NYY - The Yankees captain was marvelous after returning from the DL in early-July (.331/.384/.447 in 314 PA), but he didn't hit much in the year and half prior to that. Jeter is an extreme ground ball hitter and might never hit double-digit homers again, but he should still give you a solid average, a health amount of steals, and a ton of runs scored thanks to his supporting cast.
13. Dee Gordon, LAD - Gordon stole 24 bases and scored 34 runs in his 56-game cameo last season, and now he's got the job full-time. There's a non-zero chance that he'll hit zero homers (none in 2011, majors or minors), but he's a threat for 50+ steals and a ton of runs scored. He might not hit for a decent average or drive in many runs, but the bulk steals will be tremendously valuable.
14. Jhonny Peralta, DET - Peralta had he best season of his career last year, though his batting average was the only fantasy stat that really jumped a notch. He'd been a 15+ HR, 80+ RBI, zero steals guy for half-a-decade, and that's what he should be next year. I wouldn't count on another .299 average though, there was no significant change in his batting ball profile to suggest real improvement just yet.
15. Emilio Bonifacio, MIA - Bonifacio broke out in a big way last season, hitting .296 with 40 steals and a ton of runs scored. His .372 BABIP is high compared the rest of his career, which is notable since his batted ball profile didn't change much. That near-.300 average could come back to Earth in 2012, but the stolen base ability is for real.
16. Stephen Drew, ARI - The D'Backs aren't sure when exactly they'll have their shortstop back, but Drew has been running following his season-ending ankle injury. When healthy, he'll give you a decent average, double-digit homers, and solid run production, but who knows when he'll get back on the field and more importantly, shake off the rust.
17. Ian Desmond, WAS - Desmond produced nearly identical fantasy numbers in 2011 that he did in 2010, which meant .253/8/49/65/25. He's done it two years in a row now, do I'd count on it again in 2012.
18. Alcides Escobar, KC - A defense-first shortstop, Escobar got back to stealing bases last year (26) and managed to score a fair amount of runs (69) at the bottom of the lineup. He won't hit for average or power, so his fantasy value is tied up almost exclusively in runs and steals.
19. Jason Bartlett, SD - We're now two full years removed from Bartlett's monster 2009 season, but he did provide value by stealing 23 bases last year. He's basically a poor man's Desmond, doing everything the Nats' shortstop does except hit for any kind of power.
20. Marco Scutaro, COL - Scutaro does a little bit of everything but nothing exceptionally well. He'll lose some runs scored and RBI given the move out of the Red Sox's lineup, but he'll hit for a solid average, pop some homers, and steal the occasional base. 
21. Jamey Carroll, MIN - Carroll hasn't hit a homer in two full seasons now, but he continues to hit close to .300 and steal double-digit bases even at age 37. He'll also draw enough walks and reach base often enough to provide plenty of runs scored, particularly if Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau stay healthy.
22. Jed Lowrie, HOU - It's all about health for Lowrie, who hasn't played in 100 games in a single season since 2008. He can hit when healthy, though probably not as well as he did in the second half of 2010. He has the ability to provide double-digit homers with a solid average and run production numbers, but will he stay on the field long enough to be worth a roster spot?
23. Mike Aviles, BOS - It's shouldn't be all that difficult for Aviles to beat out Nick Punto for regular at-bats, but as an opposite-field right-handed hitter, he won't get to take advantage of the Green Monster. There's .300/10+/10+ potential here, but only if he plays every pretty much every day.
24. Rafael Furcal, STL - As injuries continue to take their roll on Furcal's now 34-year-old body, his fantasy worth depends on whether or not he can stay healthy enough to slash his way to a .300 average and 20+ steals like he did in 2010. I'm guessing he won't, but stranger things have happened.
25. Alex Gonzalez, MIL - Gonzalez has whacked 15+ HR in three of the last four years, but he doesn't do much beyond that. He hits at or below .250, doesn't steal bases, and doesn't get on base enough to post meaningul runs scored totals. It's all about the power here, don't expect any help in the other categories.

Honorable Mention: Clint Barmes, PIT; Cliff Pennington, OAK; Eduardo Nunez, NYY; Sean Rodriguez, TBR; Ryan Theriot, SF; Yuniesky Betancourt, KC

Other Positions: Catcher, First Base, Second Base

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Shortstop Rankings

We've covered catchers, first basemen, and second basemen, and now it's time to take a look at shortstops.  Average draft round from Mock Draft Central is in parentheses.    

1. Hanley Ramirez (1) - $29.82
2. Troy Tulowitzki (1) - $22.83
3. Jose Reyes (3) - $19.15
4. Jimmy Rollins (4) - $15.52
5. Tsuyoshi Nishioka (37) - $13.82
6. Rafael Furcal (12) - $10.63
7. Derek Jeter (5) - $10.39
8. Alexei Ramirez (8) - $8.40
9. Elvis Andrus (6) - $5.02
10. Ian Desmond (19) - $3.70
11. Starlin Castro (14) - $3.07
12. Alcides Escobar (37) - $2.64
13. Stephen Drew (11) - $2.32
14. Miguel Tejada (25) - $2.07
15. Alexi Casilla (Not drafted) - $1.00
16. J.J. Hardy (41) - $0.58
17. Jason Bartlett (36) - $0.55
18. Juan Uribe (28) - $0.50
19. Asdrubal Cabrera (15) - $0.19

My first impression is that the shortstop position is barren in 2011.  It's always light, but there are fewer than ten guys I'd feel comfortable drafting in a 12-team mixed league this year.

Hanley and Tulo are being drafted second and fifth overall respectively, and I don't object to that.  It is so difficult to find a comparable player that you have to pounce.  Reyes in the third round is mighty interesting.  I think he'll be right there with Tulo, but as a reminder I like to project full seasons and I have Reyes at 625 ABs.

It's unclear whether Nishioka will play second base or shortstop, but Yahoo currently has him eligible at both positions.  I see him as a three-category contributor - .290 average, 100 runs, approaching 30 steals.  Even if he doesn't get to those lofty heights you'll probably turn a tidy profit.  Of course, there's risk in using an MLB rookie as your starting shortstop.

Not sure why a two-category guy like Andrus would go in the sixth round; maybe that's when people start getting desperate for a shortstop with Jeter off the board.  Drew always gets love from drafters, but .270-15-65-80-8 really is a $2-3 performance in a 12-team mixed league.

My advice is to go early for one of my top eight shortstops, and fill your MI slot with a second baseman.

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