Second Basemen

Go Bold or Go Home: Ben Zobrist Is a Top-30 Fantasy Pick

You may have read about the ongoing campaign to have a Robocop statue built in downtown Detroit, a project I fully support, by the way.  More cities totally need to build tributes to their pop culture icons; there is no good reason why we couldn't have a bronze Heisenberg erected in downtown Albuquerque by the end of the year.  Besides, a Robocop statue would be a nice companion piece to the Zobocop statue that fantasy owners built in 2012 in honor of Ben Zobrist's three-position eligibility.

Ah, Zobrist as a shortstop.  Just remembering that wonderful day last summer when the Rays experimented with moving the Rock Zobster back to short brings a smile to my face.  Zobrist began his career as a shortstop, of course, and took to the position again with little issue, making Joe Maddon a hero to fantasy owners everywhere. 

Now, I may be praising this situation because it specifically helped me out of a fix in a league last year, but I couldn't have been the only one.  I'd drafted Troy Tulowitzki as my starting shortstop and watched in horror as his season was halted at the end of May.  That left me with a big hole at SS and given that Yunel Escobar (my backup) was also struggling and the middle infield waiver wire was as barren as ever, I was in a tight spot...until Zobrist began getting starts at short.  Zobrist owners the world over joyously counted down the days until he officially gained eligibility and then, my shortstop problem was solved; I just slid Sheriff Zobo from outfield to short and boom, I was set. 

There's nothing that fantasy owners appreciate more than options.  We all love to embrace our inner Joe Maddon and mix and match our lineups whenever possible since (let's be honest) it's kind of an ego boost.  This is why, with apologies to Jose Oquendo, Zobrist became the Secret Weapon of the 2012 fantasy baseball season.  His dual eligibility as both an outfielder and a second baseman was already valuable, and adding shortstop to the mix just shot his usefulness through the roof.

It's for this reason that I would jump on Zobrist as quickly as possible in your upcoming draft.  It blows my mind that the Mask of Zobo only has a 72.23 ADP in Mock Draft Central's most recent average draft position report and is, on average, the 68th player taken.  That means in your standard 12-team league, Zobrist is still available by the sixth round, making him an incredible bargain at that stage of the game. 

If you're in a league with no bench spots on your roster, I'd argue that Zobrist could be a second-round pick given that his versatility will allow you some precious flexibility in a roster setup that specifically limits flexibility.  Even in a standard 5x5 league with bench spots, however, I'd say that Zobrist should go no lower than the third round based on sheer production alone.

While everyone was fixated on the "SS" designation next to his name last season, let's not overlook the fact that Zobrist hit .270/.377/.471 with 20 homers, 74 RBI, 88 runs and 14 steals.  That's a good season no matter where you play on the field, but it's particularly valuable at the middle infield spots.  Zobrist's .848 OPS was topped by only two second basemen (Robinson Cano and Aaron Hill) and exactly ZERO shortstops; Ian Desmond came closest at .845.  Even at the deeper outfield position, only thirteen outfielders posted higher OPS marks than Zobrist in 2012.

The warning signs on Zobrist are his age (he turns 32 in May) and the fact that he has been having greater difficulty hitting at Tropicana Field in recent years, as evidenced by his large home/road splits (.916 OPS away/.773 home in 2012, .897 away/.738 home in 2011).  That said, I'll worry about a decline when I start to actually see signs, and to me, Leelee Zobieski seems like a pretty safe bet to at least replicate his 2012 numbers in 2013. 

That alone would make him arguably the top fantasy shortstop given how many question marks surround the other top-rated SS candidates, though I suspect the continually-improving Desmond and a healthy Tulowitzki will be at the top of the heap come season's end.  Amongst the top second basemen, I'd put Zobrist behind only Cano and Hill, as I agree with Alex Steers McCrum's evaluation of Hill and I've already outlined some of the concerns facing other highly-drafted second basemen.

Taking Zobrist early means you can essentially cover two of the traditionally-shallowest positions right off the bat and then focus on middle infield help later if one of your sleepers is still around in the ninth or tenth round.  Like real-life general managers, your draft strategy can become "picking the best player available" without worrying too much about position since you've already got the Swiss Army Zobrist on your roster.  Given the volatility of those middle infield spots, Zobrist can also be shifted partway through the season if that sleeper you liked in your draft never actually wakes up during the season.

It's just simple fantasy logic that a player who can play three positions is more valuable than a player who can play only one, if everything else is equal.  Dustin Pedroia may hit as well as Zobrist in 2013 or even better but I'll still take Zobrist first since Zobo The Greek has more innate value within the actual game of fantasy baseball.  His versatility can help you as much as it helps the Rays in real life, so don't hesitate to jump on Zobrist early in your draft.  If my advice pays off, you can build a statue in my honor.

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Go Bold or Go Home: Aaron Hill is the 2B for You

There aren't too many good second sackers around these days--not that there ever were. So why can you get one of the best ones in the sixth round? Well, if you're drafting against me, you probably can't.

Going into last year, Aaron Hill was persona non grata, after a lost 2011 split between Toronto and Arizona. Even his desert resurgence wasn't enough to pique my interest...and then 2012 happened. Here's what his stats looked like:

.302/.360/.522, 26 HR, 44 2B, 14 SB

Not too shabby. Now, I wouldn't take him over Robinson Cano (duh), but here are the numbers of the other three second basemen that I listed above Hill on our Second Base Rankings.

Dustin Pedroia: .290/.347/.449, 15 HR, 39 2B, 20 SB

Ian Kinsler: .256/.326/.423, 19 HR, 42 2B, 21 SB

Ben Zobrist: .270/.377/.471, 20 HR, 39 2B, 14 SB

It's obvious enough that Hill had the best 2012 by far, but we aren't drafting for last year. What can we expect for next year? Here are their Steamer projections for next year (courtesy of Fangraphs.com):

Hill: .268/.327/.442, 20 HR, 33 2B, 10 SB

Pedroia: .290/.364/.454, 17 HR, 39 2B, 20 SB

Kinsler: .264/.347/.444, 21 HR, 36 2B, 17 SB

Zobrist: .262/.363/.439, 19 HR, 35 2B, 11 SB

Honestly, none of these are the most amazing of projections, but how different does Hill look from the others? Not very, though Pedroia does stand apart a little, and Zobrist's ability to play shortstop and outfield gives him extra value. Hill comes out resembling Kinsler the most, though there reasons to worry about Kinsler going forward. Even if Hill is fifth-best among this group, is he three rounds worse? More like three picks worse, at the most.

So why am I so excited about Hill? Well, it's because I think there's a great chance that he beats that projection, and more reason to be optimistic about him than any of his immediate competitors.

Remember that lost 2011 season? I don't know what happened that season, beyond a plummeting HR/FB rate, but when I look at his recent seasons it's that bad one that stands out. I know what you're thinking: what about that horrible 2010, when he hit just .205? That was pretty bad, wasn't it? Let's see you try to hit for average with a .196 BABIP and a LD% that dropped by nearly half. What he did manage to do was launch 26 homers. For all I know, his 2011 woes came from trying to fix a 2010 that wasn't broken. Even if they didn't, whatever caused that lost season is long over--except in the eyes of a computer-generated projection system.

Discounting that year, Hill has hit 26 homers or more in three of the last four seasons and has hit for a helpful average in two of them. If 2010 was the result of bad luck, and 2011 the result of...something that ended with Hill's trade to Arizona, then the years worth remembering are his excellent 2012 and his even better 2009, when he hit 36 homers and topped 100 in Runs and RBI. The fact that he's shown this kind of excellence before reassures me that last year wasn't a fluke. It might be over his true talent level, but maybe not by as much as mock drafters and projection systems think.

Playing in Arizona, he'll get home park benefits that were sixth in baseball for runs and homers last year, and he should be planted firmly into a solid situation for counting stats, with Paul Goldschmidt, Martin Prado, and whichever outfielders happen to be on the lineup card that day. While the other top second-sackers have good hitting environments and supporting casts (not counting Zobrist, but you wanted him at short anyway), they don't have a big advantage on Hill in that department.

Hill is far above the players in tiers below him--including Jason Kipnis, who's getting drafted 24 picks ahead of him, and Brandon Phillips, who comes just one pick later. After that, you run into Jose Altuve, Danny Espinosa, and Rickie Weeks and you know you're in trouble. With an ADP of 74.75, it seems like a pretty big reach to go for Hill as early as the fourth round, but I can easily see you getting a bargain there. Projection systems have him looking very similar to the hitters getting drafted in that range, and they might just be unduly pessimistic about him.

The more I've thought about it, the more I've come to realize that I'd probably rather take the chance that he reaches his upside over any of the more conventional choices in his tier. There's a very good chance that he finishes 2013 second at his position only to Robinson Cano. Just like last year.

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2013 Position Rankings: Second Base

Position rankings hit the real infield today, with second basemen. Traditionally a thin position for fantasy production; the keystone isn't an exception this year. Maybe the best you can say for it is that it's still richer ground than shortstop, as the top of the field is pretty talented and decent options are present until near the middle rounds. The bad news is that it drops off really far after that. The worse news is that you're probably going to need two second sackers, because you really don't want to fill your MI slot with a shortstop.

Last week, we looked at First Basemen and Catchers. Before that, we led off with the Outfield. This round of rankings goes 30 players deep; they're divided into groups of similar value, and tiered by where they deserve to be drafted in a standard league. If you're bidding in an auction, consider players in the same tier to be of similar price. If a player has other positions in parentheses, that means you can draft and start him there. For most such players, second base is probably the position at which you'll be drafting them.

1st Round

1. Robinson Cano, NYY

Yup. He's going among the upper picks this year and he's worth it.

3rd-4th Rounds

2. Dustin Pedroia, BOS
3. Ian Kinsler, TEX
4. Ben Zobrist, TBR (SS, OF)
5. Aaron Hill, ARI

The second tier at second base has slipped a little, with (relatively) down seasons from Pedroia and Kinsler flattening their value out a little. As Mark put it some time ago, Kinsler has the higher ceiling and the lower floor, but his overall direction isn't promising. The good news is that Zobrist continues his quiet brand of goodness and super-flexibility. The better news is that Hill put up a great year, with 26 homers that bested everyone at the position not named Robinson. In context, it looks to me like his lousy 2011 was the outlier year.

5th-6th Rounds

6. Jason Kipnis, CLE
7. Brandon Phillips, CIN

Kipnis really cooled off in the second half, so I have minor doubts for next year. But only minor ones, as his speed is good and he was expected to proved even more power, so he could grow into increased homer totals. Phillips does a little--but not a lot--of everything, and should benefit from a powerful Reds lineup.

7th-8th Rounds

8. Jose Altuve, HOU

Altuve gives good speed and he hit for average last year. I tend not to trust anyone for whom batting average is a primary skill, because a little bad luck can go a long way when it comes to hurting a guy like Altuve's value. Also, who will hit him in? That said, if you took him, be glad: you just reached the end of the second basemen you're happy you drafted.

10th-11th Rounds

9. Danny Espinosa, WAS (SS)
10. Rickie Weeks, MIL

Espinosa has a little power and a little speed, but he's got a good chance to be a liability in batting average. He reminds me of a less-proven Brandon Phillips. He's worth taking a round or two earlier as a shortstop. Weeks should bounce back, right? There's a good chance he won't spend most of next season under the Mendoza line, and a healthier BABIP would make him significantly more productive. Unfortunately, his history of injury still affects his value. After this, the second basemen take another significant turn downward.

15th-16th Rounds

10.5 Kyle Seager, SEA (3B--18 games at 2B)
11. Dan Uggla, ATL
12. Chase Utley, PHI
13. Neil Walker, PIT
14. Howie Kendrick, LAA

I told you there would be a long drop. If he's eligible in your league, Seager could be a sneaky-good choice for second. Uggla lost just about everything last year, but before that he was so good that all he has to do is get a little back and you get great return for this kind of inpvestment. Cross your fingers and hope for a little more BABIP and a few more balls over the fence. Can Utley keep his body together? He was pretty good in 77 games last year, but you better have a backup. Better yet, make him the backup. Walker and Kendrick are similarly unexciting, relatively solid plays at this point. Especially if you're looking for a starter at second.

18th-19th Rounds

15. Jedd Gyorko, SDP
16. Dustin Ackley, SEA

If Gyorko gets the official starting job from San Diego, go ahead and bump him into the next tier. He's an interesting prospect, who could have some real pop in his bat. Ackley has some presumed upside, but with two seasons under his belt he hasn't shown much of it.

20th-22nd Rounds

17. Chris Nelson, COL (3B)
18. Omar Infante, DET
19. Marco Scutaro, SFG (SS)
20. Daniel Murphy, NYM
20.5 Michael Young, PHI (3B/1B--16 games at 2B)
21. Jeff Keppinger, CHW (3B, 1B)
21.5. Emilio Bonifacio, TOR (OF--15 games at 2B)
22. Kelly Johnson, TBR

Nelson has some pop and plays for Colorado, always a nice mix. Remember how Phillips did a little of everything, and then Espinosa did even less? Well Infante does less than him, but at least he does it in all five categories. Scutaro is a better than average bet in batting average, and he makes a useful MI selection because he can play second and short. Murphy hit 40 doubles to go with an average near .300, which means he should be in good position to take advantage of whatever scoring opportunities happen for the Mets. Young has descended into mediocrity, but that's better than what anyone below him can say for themselves. If your league has 15-game eligiblity or less, he could be a decent MI; Bonifacio could net you some steals under the same circumstances. Keppinger might put up an acceptable average but won't do much else. Johnson is caught in the Tampa Bay mix-and-match, but if he gets regular playing time he could be useful at MI.

23rd Round and Beyond

23. Brian Roberts, BAL
24. Gordon Beckham, CHW
25. Johnny Giavotella, KCR
26. Logan Forsythe, SDP
27. Darwin Barney, CHC
28. Maicer Izturis, TOR
29. Jemile Weeks, OAK
30. Cliff Pennington, ARI (SS)

Let's face it, these guys are warm-bodied injury replacements for deep leagues. Technically, there is some upside to be found here, but not enough to consider betting on for more than a bench role.

Things start breaking down quickly at second base, with all the options after number ten or so having low upside, low chance of reaching their upside or both. Not only that, but two of the top nine will probably be drafted as shortstops, thinning things out even more. Moral of the story: don't be the last team to take a second baseman. In fact, the overall weakness of the position makes me readier than usual to grab one of the top players, even though several of them come with serious question marks. No wonder Robinson Cano is getting drafted as high as third overall.

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Three September Call-Ups To Watch For

The calendar turns over to September this Saturday, meaning clubs will expand their rosters and call-up extra players for the stretch run. Most September call-ups are spare parts - third catchers, extra left-handed relievers, etc. - but every so often a team will bring a top prospect to the big leagues and give him a month's worth of playing time. David Price and Francisco Rodriguez are the two most notable September call-ups in recent memory, as both went on to become key components of a deep playoff run. Impact like that is the exception though, not the rule. Here are three high-end prospects who could make their way to the big leagues next month and actually have some fantasy value...

Jurickson Profar | SS | Texas Rangers

The 19-year-old wunderkind from Curacao has emerged as baseball's top prospect this summer. Profar has hit .280/.367/.452 with 14 homers and 16 steals in Double-A this season, which is insane production given his age relative to the competition. It's worth noting that he's played some games at second base lately and in each of the last two games, he was used off the bench as a pinch-hitter. It's very possible the Rangers are preparing him for a call-up, though Jeff Wilson of The Fort Worth Star-Telegram says it may not happen until the end of the Double-A postseason.

Fantasy owners should keep the plight of Mike Olt in mind when considering Profar's fantasy impact. Texas called up their other elite prospect in early-August and he's gotten just 32 plate appearances so far, including only six starts in 26 team games. Perhaps things will be different later in September after the Rangers clinch a playoff berth, but I would be skeptical right now. Profar is a definite keeper long-term, but his 2012 impact may be severely limited.

Wil Myers | OF | Kansas City Royals

After starring at the Futures Game in Kansas City and for most of the season in Triple-A, the 21-year-old Myers may finally get a chance to crack the outfield in Kauffman Stadium next month. He's hit a whopping .307/.384/.589 with 35 homers in 568 total plate appearances, pretty much confirming that he's ready for the next level. Calling up Myers could require the team to either finally bench Jeff Francoeur or sit Lorenzo Cain, the latter of whom might actually have a future with the team. If he does get the call and does play everyday in some outfield position, Myers could be a nice little late-season boost for fantasy owners, potentially chipping in something like 5-6 homers the rest of the way. That's nothing to sneeze at.

Shelby Miller | SP | St. Louis Cardinals

Earlier this week Joe Strauss of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported (on Twitter) that there is a "strong sentiment" within the organization to promote Miller, the 21-year-old flamethrower who's pitched to a 4.89 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 130 2/3 Triple-A innings this year. Those numbers aren't all that impressive overall, but the right-hander has a 57/4 K/BB in his last eight starts and seems to have figured some things out.

If the Cardinals do recall Miller next month, they'll have the option to use him out of the bullpen or instead of Joe Kelly in the rotation. I wouldn't count on him replacing Jason Motte as closer, so he would have the most fantasy value as a starter. The September schedule is loaded with intra-division games as always, meaning a whole lotta games against the lowly Astros and Cubs. St. Louis also has a West Coast swing through San Diego and Los Angeles on their slate, adding two top pitcher's parks into the mix. Miller definitely offers some impact potential going forward, assuming the club actually decides to call him up and insert him into the rotation down the stretch.

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Utley's Injury Opens The Door For Freddy Galvis

Middle infielders are prone to sharp declines, particularly second baseman after years of turning the blind double play pivot at the bag. Roberto Alomar and countless others fell off a cliff without warning, and now injuries are taking a toll on Chase Utley. The 33-year-old missed 43 games with a thumb issue in 2010 and 45 games with a knee issue in 2011, and chances are he'll open this season on the DL with knee problems as well. Here's what GM Ruben Amaro Jr. told Jim Salisbury of CSNPhiladelphia. com...

“He hasn’t been felling all that great,” Amaro said. “He hasn’t gotten to the point where he feels confident enough to get on the field without making it worse.”
 
“I would think it’s doubtful that [Utley] would be prepared to play second base for us opening day,” Amaro said. “We’re trying to hit it with a couple of different things to get him over the hump."

Assuming Utley has to start the season on the shelf, 22-year-old Freddy Galvis is almost certain to open 2012 as the club's everyday second baseman. Utility man Michael Martinez recently broke a bone in his foot as well, giving Galvis a little more security. The Phillies are reportedly looking for some infield depth, but the job appears to be his for now.

Baseball America ranked Galvis as Philadelphia's sixth best prospect in their 2012 Prospect Handbook, but unfortunately for fantasy owners, it wasn't because of his offense. "Galvis is arguably the best defensive shortstop in the minors," wrote the publication. "He has plus range despite fringy pure speed, and he also has excellent hands, an above-average arm and incredible instincts ... A switch-hitter who sprays the line drives, Galvis makes consistent contact but will never hit for much power."

Defense and injuries will keep Galvis in the lineup, but he does have something to offer fantasy owners: stolen bases. He stolen 23 bags in 137 games split between Double- and Triple-A last season, a year after swiping 15 in 138 Double-A games. The Phillies didn't emphasize the running game as much last year after losing first base coach and baserunning guru Davey Lopes to the Dodgers, but with Utley and Ryan Howard hurt to start the season, speed figures to become a bigger part of their offense. Batting eighth ahead of the pitcher will boost Galvis' on-base percentage just a bit (via intentional walks), which should then boost his stolen base total.

Dan Syzmborski's ZiPS projection system expects a .261 average with 19 steals out of Galvis given regular playing time, putting him in a class with guys like Jemile Weeks (.267 and 21), Dexter Fowler (.264 and 18), and Lorenzo Cain (.259 and 17). Not a star player, but a decent fantasy option to fill out your roster in case of injury or in a particularly deep mixed league/NL-only setup. Galvis figures to pick up both second base and shortstop eligibility, and the extra bit of flexibility is appreciated. Utley's injury is going to hurt the Phillies and fantasy owners alike, but Galvis is a useful piece that could contribute more than expected with just a little BABIP love.

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2012 Position Rankings: Second Base

Second base is one of fantasy's stronger positions, with several elite producers, plenty of depth, and a number of young breakout candidates. It also helps that a number of these players are eligible at other positions, and flexibility is always appreciated. Remember, these rankings are gearing towards 12-team mixed leagues and traditional 5x5 scoring.

1. Robinson Cano, NYY - At 29 years old, Cano is right in the prime of his career with a great supporting cast and ballpark. There is no such thing as a guarantee in fantasy baseball, but he's close to a lock for .300/25/100/100. Don't expect more than a handful of steals, however.
2. Dustin Pedroia, BOS - Pedroia showed no ill-effects from his 2010 foot injury, posting career highs with 21 HR, 91 RBI, and 26 steals last year. He might not hit for that kind of over-the-fence power again, but he'll flirt with a .300 average, score a ton of runs, and steal 20 bases.
3. Ian Kinsler, TEX - Kinsler led all qualified second baseman in steals (30) and was second in homers (32) last season, but only once in his six years has he topped a .286 batting average. Last year was also the first time he avoided the disabled list, and he won't do much for your RBI total hitting atop an admittedly great lineup.
4. Dan Uggla, ATL - You can count on Uggla to do everything but hit for average and steal bases. He's on a five-year run of at least 146 games played, 31 HR, 82 RBI, and 84 runs, with an average of 157 games played, 33 HR, 91 RBI, and 96 runs. No reason to expect any different in 2012.
5. Ben Zobrist, TBR - Zobrist's last three years have been all over the spectrum, going from great (2009) to decent (2010) to above-average (2011). He doesn't hit for the kind of average you'd expect from a speedy guy with a high ground ball rate and a turf home infield, but he contributes to the other four categories consistently. Outfield eligibility makes him a bit more valuable as well.
6. Brandon Phillips, CIN - Once a perennial 20-20 guy, Phillips' power output has been in steady decline since 2008 (18 HR in 2011) while his stolen bases total dropped for the second straight year (14). He's still a safe bet for 15-15 with a solid average next season, and he should help plenty in the runs scored and driven in departments.
7. Howie Kendrick, LAA - Kendrick parlayed the best season of his career into a fat new contract extension, meaning everyone is expecting him to do it again. The .330+ batting averages everyone forcasted during his days as a prospect have never materialized, but he's consistently around .290 and is trending upwards in the power and stolen base departments.
8. Rickie Weeks, MIL - The Brewers will count on Weeks offensively after losing Prince Fielder (and potentially Ryan Braun for 50 games), but unfortunately he's spent time on the disabled list in all but one of his six seasons. If healthy, he'll give you 20 HR and threaten double-digit steals with plenty of run production.
9. Chase Utley, PHI - Injuries have hindered a player that was once one of fantasy's best, limiting Utley to just 218 games over the last two seasons. He's more of a 15-15 player than a 30-15 player these days, and his increasing susceptability to left-handers may drag his average down. Be careful, second basemen tend to fall off a cliff quickly.
10. Michael Young, TEX - I wouldn't expect another .338 batting average and his days of 20+ homers are probably over, but Young will both score and drive in a ton of runs in that lineup and ballpark. As always, his biggest fantasy asset remains his ability to hit for average. After playing just 14 games at second last year, there's a non-zero chance he'll lose eligibility this year.
11. Dustin Ackley, SEA - Safeco Field is a pitcher's park but it is slightly less suffocating for left-handed bats. Ackley was suberb in his debut last season, and should improve his output with a full season of at-bats in 2012. A .280-.290 average with double-digit homers and steals is a safe bet.
12. Neil Walker, PIT - Walker's first full year in the big leagues was a success, and at 26 years old it's reasonable to expect him to improve his .273/12/83/76/9 performance. I don't think he can do 20 HR over a full season just yet, but more than likely you'll get help in all categories.
13. Danny Espinosa, WAS - Don't expect Espinosa's low-.200's batting average to improve as long as he employs that uppercut swing, but that same swing gives him legit 20+ HR power. He's also a threat to steal 20 bases if he picks his spots a little better. Some BABIP luck could result in a huge season.
14. Kelly Johnson, TOR - I think Johnson is a little underrated at the moment, mostly because his 2011 season is a disappointment compared to 2010. He still hit 21 HR with 16 steals, and his batting average should get out of the gutter with some help from the turf in Toronto. There was no significant change in his batted ball profile from 2010-2011, so it's fair to expect a BABIP-fueled rebound.
15. Jemile Weeks, OAK - Rickie's kid brother is going to have to create all his fantasy value himself, because his teammates and ballpark won't help at all. He could slash his way to a .290 average with 40 stolen base upside, but you'll get nothing in the other three categories.
16. Ryan Roberts, ARI - Roberts might not retain second base eligibility if the D'Backs intend to use him as their everyday third baseman, and his track record is mighty short. The downside is an unrosterable player, but the upside is a 20-20 guy maybe 80+ runs driven in.
17. Jason Kipnis, CLE - If you take Kipnis' performance from his late season call-up and extrapolate it over a 162-game season, it works out to 30+ HR and 20+ stolen bases. I promise you he won't do that in 2012. The lefty swinger could push 20 homers and ten steals if he stays healthy, making him a prime breakout candidate.
18. Marco Scutaro, COL - Scutaro does a little bit of everything, but nothing exceptionally well. The move from Fenway Park to Coors Field probably hurt him given the drop-off in his supporting staff, but Scutaro is a safe late-round pick who will help you just enough in all five categories. I like him as a waiver wire injury replacement more than anything.
19. Aaron Hill, ARI - Hill hasn't been the same player since swatting 36 HR in 2009, mostly because he's gotten power hungry and added a huge uppercut to his swing. His batting average won't improve until he stops hitting so many balls in the air, and last year's eight homers and 21 steals were the reverse of what was expected. He's a hard guy to pin down.
20. Daniel Murphy, NYM - The Mets figure to use Murphy as their primary second baseman next season, but even if that experiment doesn't work out, he'll see enough time there to retain eligibility. He can hit for a solid average but doesn't figure to contribute many homers or stolen bases.
21. Jose Altuve, HOU - The 5-foot-7 listing might be generous, but they don't count height in fantasy. Like the younger Weeks, Altuve has to produce all of his fantasy value himself with batting average and stolen bases because he won't hit for power and his teammates won't help him out very much.
22. Ryan Raburn, DET - With Delmon Young and Brennan Boesch entrenched in the outfield corners, Raburn will see his most of his time at second this year. He's hit at least 14 HR in each of the last three seasons, though his batting average has declined for two straight years now. We've been waiting for the breakout for a few years now, will it come in 2012?
23. Gordon Beckham, CHW - It's been a tough few years for the eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft. Beckham has the pop to hit double-digit homers and the potential to break out at any moment, but we're going on 1,500 plate appearances of sub-replacement level fantasy production. Upside can be tempting, but try to resist.
24. Jamey Carroll, MIN - Carroll hasn't hit a home run in two years, and that's unlikely to change with the move to Target Field. He has consistently hit in the high-.200's with double-digit steals however, and his walks have value in OBP leagues. Not a guy you want to start everyday, but a fine substitute. 
25. Ryan Theriot, SF - After four straight years of 20+ steals, Theriot dropped to just four last season. Part of that was the Cardinals' offensively philosophy, but he also got caught six times. Theriot has fantasy value as a .270 hitter with 20+ steals, so we'll have to see a) if the Giants give him the green light in 2012, and b) how much they actually play him.

Honorable Mentions: Sean Rodriguez & Jeff Keppinger, TBR; Robert Andino & Brian Roberts, BAL; Orlando Hudson, SD; Omar Infante, FLA; Mark Ellis, LAD

Other Positions: Catcher, First Base

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Second Baseman Rankings

Our catcher and first baseman rankings are up; now it's time to look at second base.  As always, my dollar values reflect a 12-team mixed league with 23-man active rosters (C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, DH).  Everything here is subject to change and open to suggestion.  Average draft round is in parentheses, courtesy of Mock Draft Central.

1. Chase Utley (2) - $20.62
2. Dustin Pedroia (3) - $18.97
3. Robinson Cano (1) - $17.85
4. Rickie Weeks (4) - $16.78
5. Ian Kinsler (5) - $16.56
6. Dan Uggla (5) - $14.75
7. Tsuyoshi Nishioka (38) - $14.27
8. Brian Roberts (11) - $11.28
9. Sean Rodriguez (39) - $10.56
10. Brandon Phillips (4) - $9.93
11. Kelly Johnson (10) - $9.66
12. Ben Zobrist (11) - $9.64
13. Danny Espinosa (42) - $8.94
14. Howie Kendrick (20) - $8.55
15. Martin Prado (7) - $7.70
16. Neil Walker (33) - $7.28
17. Gordon Beckham (20) - $5.56
18. Chone Figgins (8) - $5.56
19. Aaron Hill (15) - $3.84
20. Omar Infante (27) - $3.34
21. Bill Hall (Not drafted) - $1.68
22. Alexi Casilla (Not drafted) - $1.45
23. Juan Uribe (28) - $0.95
24. Mike Aviles (15) - $0.41

Let me start by saying that I am aggressive in my playing time projections.  I don't like to hedge and average Brian Roberts' last two seasons' AB totals and put him down for 431 in 2011.  I generally project as if the player is healthy, so Roberts gets 600 ABs from me.  So these dollar values don't really reflect injury risk, but I think that's necessary to make good rankings.  Last year if you put Rickie Weeks down for 400 ABs you might have not realized what he would do with 650.

With that in mind, Cano does not carry the injury risk of Utley or Pedroia.  Cano has the first-round ADP and I think that's justified.  But, a healthy Utley or Pedroia ought to be right there with him in value.  Kinsler in the fifth round strikes me as early given his health issues.  Then again, 600 ABs and he's literally my top-ranked second baseman.

This is a position that will win leagues, with potential massive bargains like Nishioka, Rodriguez, Espinosa, Walker, and Beckham.  I sprung for Beckham in the eighth round last year and I'm not convinced he's all that different of a player a year later.  There is a surprising number of second basemen capable of double digit home runs and steals.    There are too many steals at this position to go for a Uribe or even a Prado, in my opinion.  Prado, Phillips, Figgins are going too early for me.

Clearly to draft Nishioka over Phillips as your primary second baseman (assuming Nishioka qualifies at the position) is a risky move.  Nishioka has yet to play in the Majors and Phillips is a perennial 20/20 guy.  But if there is ever a year to pass on the big names at second base and stock up on two or three late-draft gambles, this is it.

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2010 Sleepers: Second Basemen

Thanks to Baseball Monster, here are 2010's top mixed league first basemen.  I've also added the round in which they were drafted in March, using data from Mock Draft Central.

1. Robinson Cano (4)
2. Dan Uggla (8)
3. Rickie Weeks (17)
4. Brandon Phillips (3)
5. Martin Prado (19)
6. Kelly Johnson (26)
7. Ben Zobrist (5)
8. Howie Kendrick (12)
9. Placido Polanco (20)
10. Dustin Pedroia (4)
11. Omar Infante (not drafted)
12. Alberto Callaspo (28)
13. Ian Kinsler (2)
14. Orlando Hudson (16)
15. Chase Utley (1)
16. Sean Rodriguez (not drafted)
17. Skip Schumaker (28)
18. Aaron Hill (5)

There's been a lot of good value at second base this year: Cano, Uggla, Weeks, Prado, Johnson, Kendrick, Polanco, and Infante must be considered.  Why were they underrated?

• Cano: Projected to regress from a strong 2009 season; lack of steals.  When I say projected to regress, I mean I had Cano at .303-21-87-87-3.  Very respectable, but instead he's held last year's batting average while adding HR and RBI.  I guess the lesson here is that a big season is occasionally followed by an even better one instead of the usual regression.
• Uggla: Batting average concerns, lack of steals.  Uggla's biggest flaw was his projected .250 AVG, but he's at .286 in 2010.  Baseball HQ has his expected AVG at .264, so this may be a fluke.
• Weeks: Batting average, health concerns.  Though Weeks hit .272 last year in 37 games, I was expecting something closer to his career norm and projected .254.  The current .273 AVG is probably a little over his head.  The bigger point is that Weeks was not necessarily undervalued...he was a major health risk and was drafted as such.  He traded some speed for power this year, a formula that's worked just fine.
• Prado: Playing time concerns.  I ranked Prado 14th among 2Bs, expecting a solid year given 600 ABs.  He's provided more power and AVG than expected, but he was mainly undervalued because he wasn't a full-time player for all of '09.
• Johnson: Had experienced success, but disappointed in previous season.  I have always been a big KJ fan, ranking him 13th among 2Bs.  He was a candidate for double digit power and speed with regular playing time, and the move to Arizona didn't hurt.  It's weird he was drafted so late.
• Kendrick: Health concerns.  Kendrick, like Weeks, is having his healthiest season.  His customary AVG isn't there, but he's provided value in the other categories.
• Polanco: Had experienced success, but disappointed in previous season.  Joining the top of the Phillies' lineup and moving back to the NL didn't hurt.
• Infante: Playing time concerns.  He's hit for AVG in years past, but no one predicted .349.  He may not even reach 400 ABs, but that gaudy AVG still helps plenty.

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Second Baseman Rankings

Time for RotoAuthority's second baseman rankings for 5x5 12-team mixed leagues using 14 hitters (including a 2B, SS, and MI) and 9 pitchers.  These are subject to change.  Average draft round in parentheses.

1. Chase Utley (1) - $22.83
2. Ian Kinsler (2) - $20.29
3. Dustin Pedroia (4) - $16.64
4. Brandon Phillips (3) - $16.08
5. Brian Roberts (4) - $14.50
6. Ben Zobrist (5) - $14.25
7. Robinson Cano (4) - $13.16
8. Asdrubal Cabrera (13) - $12.63
9. Aaron Hill (5) - $10.46
10. Dan Uggla (8) - $9.70
11. Ian Stewart (11) - $9.55
12. Jose Lopez (11) - $7.61
13. Kelly Johnson (28) - $7.28
14. Martin Prado (23) - $6.00
15. Howie Kendrick (12) - $5.29
16. Rickie Weeks (17) - $5.03
17. Placido Polanco (22) - $4.12
18. Clint Barmes (26) - $3.49
19. Akinori Iwamura (28) - $0.83
20. Orlando Hudson (17) - $0.38
21. Adam Kennedy (28) - $0.18

Zobrist lacks the track record, but he could be a bargain in round five.  That's with a .273-26-80-91-15 projection.  We're projecting Cabrera at 600 ABs currently, and if he gets there he could be a 13th-round steal.  If Hill comes back to Earth and hits a respectable 25 HR, you may regret making him a fifth-round pick.

Stewart could be a poor man's Uggla, and I'd add $5 to his projection if he gets 600 ABs.  Former teammates Johnson and Prado look like bargains, with Johnson getting a 530 AB projection for the D'Backs and Prado 600 ABs for the Braves.  Kendrick and Weeks are both in the 450-460 AB range, and they'd jump up the list with healthy 600 AB seasons.  Both still have top five potential, and you can get Weeks pretty late.

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Replacing Rickie Weeks

So, you just lost Rickie Weeks for the season.  It's a bummer, and you aren't going to find anyone who can match his numbers on the waiver wire.  But don't spend too much time sulking - you knew Weeks was injury-prone when you drafted him.  Let's get on with the matter of replacing him.

• Orlando Cabrera has been lousy in every way this year.  He is getting acclimated to a new team again, and he supplied value last year in the form of a .281 AVG, 93 R, and 19 SB.  And that was despite a few really bad months last year.  So O-Cab is worth considering if you can take the hit in power.  Akinori Iwamura is another who can give you AVG, R, and SB.
• Mike Fontenot hit 4 HR in April, but he's been M.I.A. in May.  The Cubs want his left-handed power and infield glove, so they'll keep hoping he breaks out of the slump.
• Sometimes, like with Rick Porcello, you have to ignore the projections and pay attention to the talent.  Maybe Elvis Andrus is the same way?  He's only 20, and he's having a decent May.  He sometimes bats second in the Rangers' high-powered lineup and has the potential to steal 30.
• Edgar Renteria, once he returns to the lineup later this week, could be a guy like O-Cab who at least gives you OK counting stats.
• Alberto Callaspo never strikes out, so he really may be able to hit .300.  But he doesn't do much else.  Cristian Guzman is available in some shallower leagues; he is the more proven version of Callaspo.
• Ben Zobrist's numbers are quite good, assuming he finds playing time.
• I have a league where Kelly Johnson and Placido Polanco are available (I dropped KJ for Guzman).  I liked both 2Bs in the preseason and the season is only 1/4 over.

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