Second Basemen

2012 Position Rankings: Second Base

Second base is one of fantasy's stronger positions, with several elite producers, plenty of depth, and a number of young breakout candidates. It also helps that a number of these players are eligible at other positions, and flexibility is always appreciated. Remember, these rankings are gearing towards 12-team mixed leagues and traditional 5x5 scoring.

1. Robinson Cano, NYY - At 29 years old, Cano is right in the prime of his career with a great supporting cast and ballpark. There is no such thing as a guarantee in fantasy baseball, but he's close to a lock for .300/25/100/100. Don't expect more than a handful of steals, however.
2. Dustin Pedroia, BOS - Pedroia showed no ill-effects from his 2010 foot injury, posting career highs with 21 HR, 91 RBI, and 26 steals last year. He might not hit for that kind of over-the-fence power again, but he'll flirt with a .300 average, score a ton of runs, and steal 20 bases.
3. Ian Kinsler, TEX - Kinsler led all qualified second baseman in steals (30) and was second in homers (32) last season, but only once in his six years has he topped a .286 batting average. Last year was also the first time he avoided the disabled list, and he won't do much for your RBI total hitting atop an admittedly great lineup.
4. Dan Uggla, ATL - You can count on Uggla to do everything but hit for average and steal bases. He's on a five-year run of at least 146 games played, 31 HR, 82 RBI, and 84 runs, with an average of 157 games played, 33 HR, 91 RBI, and 96 runs. No reason to expect any different in 2012.
5. Ben Zobrist, TBR - Zobrist's last three years have been all over the spectrum, going from great (2009) to decent (2010) to above-average (2011). He doesn't hit for the kind of average you'd expect from a speedy guy with a high ground ball rate and a turf home infield, but he contributes to the other four categories consistently. Outfield eligibility makes him a bit more valuable as well.
6. Brandon Phillips, CIN - Once a perennial 20-20 guy, Phillips' power output has been in steady decline since 2008 (18 HR in 2011) while his stolen bases total dropped for the second straight year (14). He's still a safe bet for 15-15 with a solid average next season, and he should help plenty in the runs scored and driven in departments.
7. Howie Kendrick, LAA - Kendrick parlayed the best season of his career into a fat new contract extension, meaning everyone is expecting him to do it again. The .330+ batting averages everyone forcasted during his days as a prospect have never materialized, but he's consistently around .290 and is trending upwards in the power and stolen base departments.
8. Rickie Weeks, MIL - The Brewers will count on Weeks offensively after losing Prince Fielder (and potentially Ryan Braun for 50 games), but unfortunately he's spent time on the disabled list in all but one of his six seasons. If healthy, he'll give you 20 HR and threaten double-digit steals with plenty of run production.
9. Chase Utley, PHI - Injuries have hindered a player that was once one of fantasy's best, limiting Utley to just 218 games over the last two seasons. He's more of a 15-15 player than a 30-15 player these days, and his increasing susceptability to left-handers may drag his average down. Be careful, second basemen tend to fall off a cliff quickly.
10. Michael Young, TEX - I wouldn't expect another .338 batting average and his days of 20+ homers are probably over, but Young will both score and drive in a ton of runs in that lineup and ballpark. As always, his biggest fantasy asset remains his ability to hit for average. After playing just 14 games at second last year, there's a non-zero chance he'll lose eligibility this year.
11. Dustin Ackley, SEA - Safeco Field is a pitcher's park but it is slightly less suffocating for left-handed bats. Ackley was suberb in his debut last season, and should improve his output with a full season of at-bats in 2012. A .280-.290 average with double-digit homers and steals is a safe bet.
12. Neil Walker, PIT - Walker's first full year in the big leagues was a success, and at 26 years old it's reasonable to expect him to improve his .273/12/83/76/9 performance. I don't think he can do 20 HR over a full season just yet, but more than likely you'll get help in all categories.
13. Danny Espinosa, WAS - Don't expect Espinosa's low-.200's batting average to improve as long as he employs that uppercut swing, but that same swing gives him legit 20+ HR power. He's also a threat to steal 20 bases if he picks his spots a little better. Some BABIP luck could result in a huge season.
14. Kelly Johnson, TOR - I think Johnson is a little underrated at the moment, mostly because his 2011 season is a disappointment compared to 2010. He still hit 21 HR with 16 steals, and his batting average should get out of the gutter with some help from the turf in Toronto. There was no significant change in his batted ball profile from 2010-2011, so it's fair to expect a BABIP-fueled rebound.
15. Jemile Weeks, OAK - Rickie's kid brother is going to have to create all his fantasy value himself, because his teammates and ballpark won't help at all. He could slash his way to a .290 average with 40 stolen base upside, but you'll get nothing in the other three categories.
16. Ryan Roberts, ARI - Roberts might not retain second base eligibility if the D'Backs intend to use him as their everyday third baseman, and his track record is mighty short. The downside is an unrosterable player, but the upside is a 20-20 guy maybe 80+ runs driven in.
17. Jason Kipnis, CLE - If you take Kipnis' performance from his late season call-up and extrapolate it over a 162-game season, it works out to 30+ HR and 20+ stolen bases. I promise you he won't do that in 2012. The lefty swinger could push 20 homers and ten steals if he stays healthy, making him a prime breakout candidate.
18. Marco Scutaro, COL - Scutaro does a little bit of everything, but nothing exceptionally well. The move from Fenway Park to Coors Field probably hurt him given the drop-off in his supporting staff, but Scutaro is a safe late-round pick who will help you just enough in all five categories. I like him as a waiver wire injury replacement more than anything.
19. Aaron Hill, ARI - Hill hasn't been the same player since swatting 36 HR in 2009, mostly because he's gotten power hungry and added a huge uppercut to his swing. His batting average won't improve until he stops hitting so many balls in the air, and last year's eight homers and 21 steals were the reverse of what was expected. He's a hard guy to pin down.
20. Daniel Murphy, NYM - The Mets figure to use Murphy as their primary second baseman next season, but even if that experiment doesn't work out, he'll see enough time there to retain eligibility. He can hit for a solid average but doesn't figure to contribute many homers or stolen bases.
21. Jose Altuve, HOU - The 5-foot-7 listing might be generous, but they don't count height in fantasy. Like the younger Weeks, Altuve has to produce all of his fantasy value himself with batting average and stolen bases because he won't hit for power and his teammates won't help him out very much.
22. Ryan Raburn, DET - With Delmon Young and Brennan Boesch entrenched in the outfield corners, Raburn will see his most of his time at second this year. He's hit at least 14 HR in each of the last three seasons, though his batting average has declined for two straight years now. We've been waiting for the breakout for a few years now, will it come in 2012?
23. Gordon Beckham, CHW - It's been a tough few years for the eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft. Beckham has the pop to hit double-digit homers and the potential to break out at any moment, but we're going on 1,500 plate appearances of sub-replacement level fantasy production. Upside can be tempting, but try to resist.
24. Jamey Carroll, MIN - Carroll hasn't hit a home run in two years, and that's unlikely to change with the move to Target Field. He has consistently hit in the high-.200's with double-digit steals however, and his walks have value in OBP leagues. Not a guy you want to start everyday, but a fine substitute. 
25. Ryan Theriot, SF - After four straight years of 20+ steals, Theriot dropped to just four last season. Part of that was the Cardinals' offensively philosophy, but he also got caught six times. Theriot has fantasy value as a .270 hitter with 20+ steals, so we'll have to see a) if the Giants give him the green light in 2012, and b) how much they actually play him.

Honorable Mentions: Sean Rodriguez & Jeff Keppinger, TBR; Robert Andino & Brian Roberts, BAL; Orlando Hudson, SD; Omar Infante, FLA; Mark Ellis, LAD

Other Positions: Catcher, First Base

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Second Baseman Rankings

Our catcher and first baseman rankings are up; now it's time to look at second base.  As always, my dollar values reflect a 12-team mixed league with 23-man active rosters (C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, DH).  Everything here is subject to change and open to suggestion.  Average draft round is in parentheses, courtesy of Mock Draft Central.

1. Chase Utley (2) - $20.62
2. Dustin Pedroia (3) - $18.97
3. Robinson Cano (1) - $17.85
4. Rickie Weeks (4) - $16.78
5. Ian Kinsler (5) - $16.56
6. Dan Uggla (5) - $14.75
7. Tsuyoshi Nishioka (38) - $14.27
8. Brian Roberts (11) - $11.28
9. Sean Rodriguez (39) - $10.56
10. Brandon Phillips (4) - $9.93
11. Kelly Johnson (10) - $9.66
12. Ben Zobrist (11) - $9.64
13. Danny Espinosa (42) - $8.94
14. Howie Kendrick (20) - $8.55
15. Martin Prado (7) - $7.70
16. Neil Walker (33) - $7.28
17. Gordon Beckham (20) - $5.56
18. Chone Figgins (8) - $5.56
19. Aaron Hill (15) - $3.84
20. Omar Infante (27) - $3.34
21. Bill Hall (Not drafted) - $1.68
22. Alexi Casilla (Not drafted) - $1.45
23. Juan Uribe (28) - $0.95
24. Mike Aviles (15) - $0.41

Let me start by saying that I am aggressive in my playing time projections.  I don't like to hedge and average Brian Roberts' last two seasons' AB totals and put him down for 431 in 2011.  I generally project as if the player is healthy, so Roberts gets 600 ABs from me.  So these dollar values don't really reflect injury risk, but I think that's necessary to make good rankings.  Last year if you put Rickie Weeks down for 400 ABs you might have not realized what he would do with 650.

With that in mind, Cano does not carry the injury risk of Utley or Pedroia.  Cano has the first-round ADP and I think that's justified.  But, a healthy Utley or Pedroia ought to be right there with him in value.  Kinsler in the fifth round strikes me as early given his health issues.  Then again, 600 ABs and he's literally my top-ranked second baseman.

This is a position that will win leagues, with potential massive bargains like Nishioka, Rodriguez, Espinosa, Walker, and Beckham.  I sprung for Beckham in the eighth round last year and I'm not convinced he's all that different of a player a year later.  There is a surprising number of second basemen capable of double digit home runs and steals.    There are too many steals at this position to go for a Uribe or even a Prado, in my opinion.  Prado, Phillips, Figgins are going too early for me.

Clearly to draft Nishioka over Phillips as your primary second baseman (assuming Nishioka qualifies at the position) is a risky move.  Nishioka has yet to play in the Majors and Phillips is a perennial 20/20 guy.  But if there is ever a year to pass on the big names at second base and stock up on two or three late-draft gambles, this is it.

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2010 Sleepers: Second Basemen

Thanks to Baseball Monster, here are 2010's top mixed league first basemen.  I've also added the round in which they were drafted in March, using data from Mock Draft Central.

1. Robinson Cano (4)
2. Dan Uggla (8)
3. Rickie Weeks (17)
4. Brandon Phillips (3)
5. Martin Prado (19)
6. Kelly Johnson (26)
7. Ben Zobrist (5)
8. Howie Kendrick (12)
9. Placido Polanco (20)
10. Dustin Pedroia (4)
11. Omar Infante (not drafted)
12. Alberto Callaspo (28)
13. Ian Kinsler (2)
14. Orlando Hudson (16)
15. Chase Utley (1)
16. Sean Rodriguez (not drafted)
17. Skip Schumaker (28)
18. Aaron Hill (5)

There's been a lot of good value at second base this year: Cano, Uggla, Weeks, Prado, Johnson, Kendrick, Polanco, and Infante must be considered.  Why were they underrated?

• Cano: Projected to regress from a strong 2009 season; lack of steals.  When I say projected to regress, I mean I had Cano at .303-21-87-87-3.  Very respectable, but instead he's held last year's batting average while adding HR and RBI.  I guess the lesson here is that a big season is occasionally followed by an even better one instead of the usual regression.
• Uggla: Batting average concerns, lack of steals.  Uggla's biggest flaw was his projected .250 AVG, but he's at .286 in 2010.  Baseball HQ has his expected AVG at .264, so this may be a fluke.
• Weeks: Batting average, health concerns.  Though Weeks hit .272 last year in 37 games, I was expecting something closer to his career norm and projected .254.  The current .273 AVG is probably a little over his head.  The bigger point is that Weeks was not necessarily undervalued...he was a major health risk and was drafted as such.  He traded some speed for power this year, a formula that's worked just fine.
• Prado: Playing time concerns.  I ranked Prado 14th among 2Bs, expecting a solid year given 600 ABs.  He's provided more power and AVG than expected, but he was mainly undervalued because he wasn't a full-time player for all of '09.
• Johnson: Had experienced success, but disappointed in previous season.  I have always been a big KJ fan, ranking him 13th among 2Bs.  He was a candidate for double digit power and speed with regular playing time, and the move to Arizona didn't hurt.  It's weird he was drafted so late.
• Kendrick: Health concerns.  Kendrick, like Weeks, is having his healthiest season.  His customary AVG isn't there, but he's provided value in the other categories.
• Polanco: Had experienced success, but disappointed in previous season.  Joining the top of the Phillies' lineup and moving back to the NL didn't hurt.
• Infante: Playing time concerns.  He's hit for AVG in years past, but no one predicted .349.  He may not even reach 400 ABs, but that gaudy AVG still helps plenty.

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Second Baseman Rankings

Time for RotoAuthority's second baseman rankings for 5x5 12-team mixed leagues using 14 hitters (including a 2B, SS, and MI) and 9 pitchers.  These are subject to change.  Average draft round in parentheses.

1. Chase Utley (1) - $22.83
2. Ian Kinsler (2) - $20.29
3. Dustin Pedroia (4) - $16.64
4. Brandon Phillips (3) - $16.08
5. Brian Roberts (4) - $14.50
6. Ben Zobrist (5) - $14.25
7. Robinson Cano (4) - $13.16
8. Asdrubal Cabrera (13) - $12.63
9. Aaron Hill (5) - $10.46
10. Dan Uggla (8) - $9.70
11. Ian Stewart (11) - $9.55
12. Jose Lopez (11) - $7.61
13. Kelly Johnson (28) - $7.28
14. Martin Prado (23) - $6.00
15. Howie Kendrick (12) - $5.29
16. Rickie Weeks (17) - $5.03
17. Placido Polanco (22) - $4.12
18. Clint Barmes (26) - $3.49
19. Akinori Iwamura (28) - $0.83
20. Orlando Hudson (17) - $0.38
21. Adam Kennedy (28) - $0.18

Zobrist lacks the track record, but he could be a bargain in round five.  That's with a .273-26-80-91-15 projection.  We're projecting Cabrera at 600 ABs currently, and if he gets there he could be a 13th-round steal.  If Hill comes back to Earth and hits a respectable 25 HR, you may regret making him a fifth-round pick.

Stewart could be a poor man's Uggla, and I'd add $5 to his projection if he gets 600 ABs.  Former teammates Johnson and Prado look like bargains, with Johnson getting a 530 AB projection for the D'Backs and Prado 600 ABs for the Braves.  Kendrick and Weeks are both in the 450-460 AB range, and they'd jump up the list with healthy 600 AB seasons.  Both still have top five potential, and you can get Weeks pretty late.

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Replacing Rickie Weeks

So, you just lost Rickie Weeks for the season.  It's a bummer, and you aren't going to find anyone who can match his numbers on the waiver wire.  But don't spend too much time sulking - you knew Weeks was injury-prone when you drafted him.  Let's get on with the matter of replacing him.

• Orlando Cabrera has been lousy in every way this year.  He is getting acclimated to a new team again, and he supplied value last year in the form of a .281 AVG, 93 R, and 19 SB.  And that was despite a few really bad months last year.  So O-Cab is worth considering if you can take the hit in power.  Akinori Iwamura is another who can give you AVG, R, and SB.
• Mike Fontenot hit 4 HR in April, but he's been M.I.A. in May.  The Cubs want his left-handed power and infield glove, so they'll keep hoping he breaks out of the slump.
• Sometimes, like with Rick Porcello, you have to ignore the projections and pay attention to the talent.  Maybe Elvis Andrus is the same way?  He's only 20, and he's having a decent May.  He sometimes bats second in the Rangers' high-powered lineup and has the potential to steal 30.
• Edgar Renteria, once he returns to the lineup later this week, could be a guy like O-Cab who at least gives you OK counting stats.
• Alberto Callaspo never strikes out, so he really may be able to hit .300.  But he doesn't do much else.  Cristian Guzman is available in some shallower leagues; he is the more proven version of Callaspo.
• Ben Zobrist's numbers are quite good, assuming he finds playing time.
• I have a league where Kelly Johnson and Placido Polanco are available (I dropped KJ for Guzman).  I liked both 2Bs in the preseason and the season is only 1/4 over.

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Second Base Rankings

Using 20 games for eligibility, here are our tentative rankings for second basemen.  These are based on a standard 12 team 5x5 mixed league (categories: AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB).  Draft round is in parentheses.

1. Ian Kinsler - $22.12 (1)
2. Chase Utley - $20.16 (2)
3. Dustin Pedroia - $18.38 (3)
4. Brian Roberts - $16.31 (4)
5. Brandon Phillips - $14.92 (3)
6. Alexei Ramirez - $14.90 (5)
7. Dan Uggla - $12.53 (6)
8. Robinson Cano - $9.98 (7)
9. Rickie Weeks - $9.58 (20)
10. Kelly Johnson - $9.19 (19)
11. Howie Kendrick - $8.50 (11)
12. Mark DeRosa - $7.33 (16)
13. Placido Polanco - $6.84 (20)
14. Jose Lopez - $5.76 (14)
15. Felipe Lopez - $5.54 (27)
16. Mike Aviles - $5.50 (13)
17. Asdrubal Cabrera - $2.04 (28)
18. Aaron Hill - $1.70 (28)
19. Alexi Casilla - $1.00 (28)

A few on the fringes, some of whom could jump up with more ABs: Mark Ellis, Kaz Matsui, Akinori Iwamura, Freddy Sanchez, and Orlando Hudson.  Mike Fontenot could be a $6-7 sleeper if he can find 550 ABs despite Aaron Miles' presence.

I like to try to get Kinsler, Utley, or Ramirez as my starting 2B.  Failing that, Weeks and Johnson are decent guys who could turn a profit.

As far as the aggressive draft positions on Cano, Kendrick, and Jose Lopez, does anyone think they're justified?

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Second Baseman Ranking Comparison

My second baseman rankings back in March, including round drafted on average:

Name	$ VAL	Round
Chase Utley	22.37	1
Brian Roberts	18.84	3
B.J. Upton	16.35	2
Brandon Phillips	14.99	2
Robinson Cano	12.58	6
Ian Kinsler	9.23	6
Kelly Johnson	8.91	14
Dan Uggla	6.41	8
Placido Polanco	5.67	15
Howie Kendrick	5.42	10
Rickie Weeks	5.40	11
Dustin Pedroia	4.32	14
Freddy Sanchez	3.27	17
Orlando Hudson	3.05	14
Luis Castillo	2.36	19
Jeff Kent	2.34	17
Ty Wigginton	2.27	18
Kaz Matsui	2.24	16
Yunel Escobar	1.74	17
Asdrubal Cabrera	1.23	17
Ryan Theriot	1.09	19
Aaron Hill	0.51	18
Mark Ellis	0.38	19

As you might expect, I often ended up with Roberts and Johnson based on these rankings.  Here are the actual 2008 ratings, based on ESPN's player rater (which uses AVG, HR, RBI, R, and SB):

Name	Round
Dustin Pedroia	14
Chase Utley	1
Ian Kinsler	6
Brian Roberts	3
B.J. Upton	2
Mark DeRosa	21
Jose Lopez	24
Brandon Phillips	2
Dan Uggla	8
Alexei Ramirez	N/A
Ryan Theriot	19
Placido Polanco	15
Kelly Johnson	14
Mike Aviles	N/A
Ty Wigginton	18
Kaz Matsui	16
Clint Barmes	N/A
Yunel Escobar	17
Robinson Cano	6
Akinori Iwamura	18
Rickie Weeks	11
Orlando Hudson	14
Ray Durham	30
Marco Scutaro	54

Busts: Phillips, Cano, Weeks,Kendrick.  Phillips didn't provide second round value, though we here at RotoAuthority didn't expect him to.  Cano was just an out and out flop.  As a sixth-round pick, owners were probably reluctant to give up on him.

Surprises: Pedroia, DeRosa, Lopez, Ramirez, Theriot, Aviles.  If you had a problem at second base, there were plenty of opportunities to upgrade via free agency.  Ramirez and Aviles will get ROY votes for sure.  Pedroia might win the MVP.  And you have to love DeRo's flexibility, as he's eligible at 3B and OF as well.  All these surprises just underscore the importance of free agency in your typical 12-team mixed league.

Possibly sleepers for '09: Wigginton, Alexei, and Lopez.

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Weeks' Stock Dropping

Rickie Weeks' hand is hurting, and he's had a terrible spring.  This is a breakout pick that's gotten a bit too trendy.  He's going in the tenth round, but I've seen people reach for him much earlier. 

Los Genius snagged him in the sixth round in the RotoAuthority League (not to question Los Genius' genius).  But picked that early, Weeks really needs to deliver.  I'd rather have Aaron Harang, Robinson Cano, Matt Kemp, or Javier Vazquez, who all went later than Weeks in our league.   I have Weeks hitting .261-16-49-90-22 in 445 ABs.  That's an AB level that Weeks has yet to approach in the bigs for various reasons.  He is a pretty risky pick right now.

Here's what's going to happen.  You grab my boy Kelly Johnson in the 14th instead of Weeks (unless that jerk Santa's Magic Janitor takes him in the tenth).  You get a five category leadoff hitter in KJ.  Weeks has a craptastic month or two in '08, and people start dropping him in droves.  Then you think about picking him up and letting him hang on your bench until he starts hitting.  Weeks might have that tantalizing 30/30 ability, but he can't hit for average or stay healthy.

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2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Second Basemen

Sleepers, undervalued, profitable players, call 'em what you will.  In general, some guys who may not be getting enough respect in your mixed league.

• Unless Brian Roberts slips to the fifth round, I often find myself taking Kelly Johnson as my second baseman this year.  Johnson is going 164th, tenth among 2Bs.  He's seventh in my rankings and a possible five-category guy.
• Rickie Weeks is a popular breakout pick (again).  I have him at .261-16-49-90-22 in 445 ABs.  If you think he's likely to beat that, then perhaps his ninth round ADP doesn't look so bad.  It's not a risk I'm keen on taking though.  I have a similar opinion of Howie Kendrick, though I do own him in my keeper league for $4.
• I've been quick to dismiss Aaron Hill, giving him a $0.63 value with a .283-12-65-73-3 projection.  Zachary of Sportszilla got me to think a little more about Hill, and I found myself agreeing that he's a nice sleeper.  Even if he just replicates his '07 he's right there with Johnson in value.  Mark Ellis is interesting to me as a poor man's Hill in a contract year.  Orlando Hudson is also playing for his next deal; could he muscle up for 20 HR?  All should be found in the 15th round or later.
• Freddy Sanchez is intriguing given his nine second half home runs and tendency to hit .300.

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