San Francisco Giants

Is Barry Zito For Real?

Seven starts in, we've already read quite a bit about Barry Zito's renaissance.  Consider me a skeptic.

I'm not doing anything too advanced here, but Zito's numbers outside of his 1.90 ERA are not impressive.  His walks are still high - 3.6 per nine innings.  His strikeout rate is his worst since '03 - 5.7 per nine.  We could blame a lot of this on his last start - without it, his walk rate is 2.55 per nine.  On the other hand, eliminating a pitcher's worst start will often give a huge boost when he's only made seven.

Zito has excelled in two areas - hits and home runs allowed.  6.3 hits allowed per nine is not a reasonable expectation moving forward.  You just don't see pitchers do that over an extended period.  His BABIP is quite low at .241, though we have to credit Zito for posting four other low-BABIP full seasons in his career (including .242 in '03).  Zito has also not allowed a home run so far this year, despite a career rate of 0.94 per nine coming into the season.  His 44.4% groundball rate is a career-best, so maybe he will continue doing a better job preventing the longball.  Still, that rate doesn't place him on the groundball leaderboard.

XFIP is always a good way to see how a guy has really pitched.  Per FanGraphs, Zito's is 4.49.  If the reduced strikeout rate continues Zito may have a hard time even matching last year's value of $5.43, from here on out on a prorated basis.  You may want to hang on to him for now, though, as his next start is against the Astros.

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Facing The Giants

The Giants easily have the worst offense in the NL at 3.63 runs per game.  Here's a look at their opponents this week, for spot-starting purposes:

• Monday: Daniel Cabrera
• Tuesday: Jordan Zimmermann
• Wednesday: Shairon Martis
• Thursday: John Maine
• Friday: Livan Hernandez.  Tim Lincecum starts this game for the Giants, but it's Livan Hernandez so you probably wouldn't use him anyway.
• Saturday: Johan Santana

Zimmermann is my pick of the week, though Maine is worth a look if he's out there (despite his 5.3 BB/9).  You might be able to hang with Zimmermann, as he draws the Pirates in his following start.

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A Look At The San Francisco Bullpen

The Giants made an early strike to sign Jeremy Affeldt to be their setup man.  It was surprising Affeldt signed on November 17th, as the market for him figured to be strong.  Plus, he chose not to seek a closing role given Brian Wilson's presence in San Francisco.

Wilson used his 95.8mph heater to whiff more than a batter per inning.  However, that K rate was accompanied by a lot of walks, hits, and home runs.  His WHIP was 1.44, yet he still saved 41 games.  At the least, his BABIP (.336)/hits per nine innings (8.95) will come down.

The Giants figure to stick with Wilson unless he takes a step backward in 2009.  However, there is a case to be made that Affeldt is the better pitcher.   The main difference is Affeldt's superior control.  Affeldt was also plagued by a rough BABIP (.329).

The Bill James projections suggest the pitchers are in the correct roles, however.  They have Wilson with a 3.74 ERA and 1.38 WHIP and Affeldt with a 4.39 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.  They may have projected Affeldt as a Red though.  ZiPS sees a similar ERA but higher WHIP for Wilson, but likes Affeldt for a 3.44 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.

This was a long-winded way of saying that I think Affeldt is a better pitcher than Wilson, but the Giants are unlikely to agree unless Wilson is horrific.  I'd be intrigued if Bob Howry steps up as a strong setup man and Affeldt gets a chance to start.  Howry doesn't project too poorly himself, with the systems calling for an ERA in the 3.75-4.10 range and a WHIP around 1.25.

While the Giants' revamped pen should certainly be an improvement, note that all three late-inning relievers allowed more than one home run per nine innings in 2008.  This could lead to some especially painful losses.

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Armando Benitez Projection

Purchasers of my 2006 Fantasy Guide may have noticed that Armando Benitez is valued at just $2.39, right below Kyle Farnsworth.  Given that Benitez posted a 1.29 ERA with 47 saves in his last healthy season, what gives?  Let's take a peek under the hood and see why I've projected Benitez to have a 4.26 ERA in 2006.

To begin with, I have Benitez pitching 68 innings in '06.  It's his previously established healthy level, and he hasn't really exceeded it since 2001.

Next, let's look at his K rate.  While there are some dangerously small samples from 2003 and 2005, Benitez's strikeout rate has seen a fairly steady decline since 1999.  I've pegged it at 7.6 per nine for his age 33 season, which would be better than his '05 mark in 30 innings.  Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system thinks Benitez will remain at 2005's 6.9 K/9 rate.  The ZiPS system went with 8.1, a rise from his 2004 mark.

Now it's time to predict Benitez's hit rate.  This is far from an exact science, but I'll do my best.  I put it at 7.4 hits per nine.  It hasn't been that high in a full season since '03, and Benitez  posted a remarkably low 4.6 per nine rate in 2004.  I'm not sure how much control he has over his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) but the .178 mark from '04 seems a tad lucky.  ZiPS says 7.4 and PECOTA went with 7.9. 

Walk rate must also be projected for us to come up with his WHIP.  2004 and maybe 2002 were the only two seasons during which Benitez had walk rates that could be considered good.  He has a 4.62 per nine career mark, and I went with 4.65.   I think he could get this down to 4.3, but I'd be surprised to see much better than that.  The field does not agree, as ZiPS said 4.0 and PECOTA 4.2.  In their defense, Benitez's career walk rate is influenced by some wildness early in his career.

My projections call for a 1.34 WHIP, versus 1.40 from PECOTA and 1.28 from ZiPS.  The range here is huge, with the most variation in the walks allowed portion.  Improved control is how Benitez would most likely prove my projection wrong.

I was pessimistic in projected his HR rate, going with 1.1 per nine.  He hasn't been that bad in a full season since '02, but Benitez did spend 2004 in a major pitchers' park.  ZiPS went with 0.90 and PECOTA predicts 1.1.

Given Benitez's salary and the weak San Francisco bullpen, it'd be a surprise to see him lose his job.  That's why I still predicted 34 saves.  According to the depth chart at The Closer Watch, we could have to endure more 9th innings in the hands of Tyler Walker if Benitez really blows up or gets hurt.   

PECOTA projects a 4.40 ERA while ZiPS is kinder with 4.03.  My final projection:

IP	H	HR	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP	W	SV
68	56	8	35	57	4.26	1.34	5	34

There's plenty of uncertainty here, but three independent systems predict an ERA over 4 for San Francisco's closer.  I'm not sure what kind of price Benitez will go for in auctions this year, but I'd have to think it will be more than $5.  He went in the 11th round of ESPN's expert mock draft, ahead of Tom Gordon, Eddie Guardado, Brian Fuentes, and Jose Valverde.  At this point in his career Benitez just doesn't look like a good fantasy investment, and I'd prefer any of those four.

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