Rookies

Kosuke Fukudome's Hot Start

Josh Kalk has been doing great work studying PITCHf/x data.  Check out his blog here and Hardball Times contributions here.  Josh decided to examine Kosuke Fukudome's hot start in a guest post for RotoAuthority.com.  His post follows.

Kosuke Fukudome has taken the league by storm starting off hitting .328/.444/.463.  He was billed as a combination of Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui and he has lived up to that so far.  But Jason Kendall has also started off batting .345/.400/.483 so the question for fantasy owners remains, should you sell high on Fukudome or hold to him?

The first thing to look at is Fukudome's BABIP, which is a lofty .396 right now.  While I expect him to end up with a BABIP that is above league average his is almost certainly at least a little over his head right now.  Still, even with a small correction down he would be a solid addition to any fantasy roster.  The main question is will the league catch up to him as the year goes on?  This is where his PITCHf/x data really comes in handy.  Here is a look at every tracked fastball Fukudome has faced:

 

The first thing to notice on this plot is that Fukudome rarely swings and missed at a pitch.  One the other hand look at how many pitches he is fouling off.  Many of those fouled pitches came with two strikes as Fukudome was protecting the plate.  This is where the Ichiro comparisons come from.  Unlike Ichiro look at home many balls Fukudome takes for a strike.  Early in the count Fukudome is generally content to wait for his pitch.  I have overlaid the MLB defined strike zone but as you can see here, the umpires tend to give the pitcher a few more inches on corners.  This patience has allowed Fukudome to walk 14 times compared to just 13 strikeouts.  This is an excellent sign and I fully expect this to continue thought the year.  How does Fukudome handle off speed pitches?  Here is all the change ups thrown to Fukudome:

Again Fukudome rarely swings at pitches outside the strike zone.  For a full breakdown you can look at his player card here.  The standard approach to a left handed batter is hard stuff up and in with soft stuff down and away.  But if you don't throw those pitches for strikes Fukudome just isn't swinging at them.  So how should pitchers go about pitching to him?

In my opinion the way to attack Fukudome is get ahead early.  While Fukudome will jump on a get me over curve if you make a quality pitch in the strike zone early in the count he will more than likely lay off.  Once ahead, instead of trying to get him to chase pitches away I would bust him in with fastballs.  While most left handers love pitches low and in Fukudome seems to prefer the ball middle away.  In fact, with two strikes he will very often try to go the other way even with a ball inside.  So bust him in with those fastballs when you get two strikes.  If you absolutely need a strikeout then a ball down will probably be more effective than a ball outside.

All signs point to a very good year by Fukudome.  The first key to success to hitting is swinging at strikes and Fukudome clearly has that down.  Because of his patience Fukudome is seeing a huge amount of pitches which greatly increases the chances of a pitcher making a mistake.  When he gets that mistake Fukudome isn't swinging and missing either.  It would take a huge offer to pry Fukudome from my roster if I am a fantasy owner.

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Eyeing Max Scherzer

Alright, it's officially time to get excited about Max Scherzer as the "next big thing."  Here are the numbers on the 23 year-old starter:

3 starts (Triple A)
17 innings
0.00 ERA
0.59 WHIP
15.35 K/9
1.59 BB/9
3.71 H/9
0.00 HR/9
2.00 Groundball/flyball ratio

Those are video game numbers.  Admittedly it's just three starts, but this reminds me of the way Tim Lincecum kicked off his '07 season.  Actually, Scherzer's been better.

I was recently asked which waiver wire pickups could net decent strikeouts for your team.  Scherzer is officially #1 on that list, when he comes up.  At this rate he could force his way into the picture before June.  There are many scenarios I can envision where Arizona needs a starter.

Some scouts see Scherzer as a future closer rather than a starter, just like many folks thought Lincecum was better suited for the pen.  Scherzer is best known for his high-velocity heater with sinking action, followed by a pretty good slider.

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Evan Longoria Arrives

Top third base prospect Evan Longoria is up in the bigs, and probably to stay.  So much for the Rays' cost-saving plan.   Other third base prospects like Andy LaRoche, Chase Headley, and Neil Walker may spend time in the Majors this year, but Longoria is easily the best of the four.

Longoria is as close to a sure thing as a prospect gets (although we said that about Alex Gordon a year ago probably).  The 22 year-old Longoria started slow in Durham, for what it's worth. He hit .262/.407/.595 with three homers and two steals in 42 spring ABs.

Assuming all third basemen will receive 500 additional ABs this year (for the sake of comparison), I have Longoria ranked 11th (after Ryan Zimmerman and before Mark Reynolds).  For the 500 ABs I have Longoria at .270-23-81-83-4. 

Though I have Longoria technically outranking Reynolds, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Alex Gordon, and Adrian Beltre, I wouldn't drop/trade any of them to accomodate him. These four are all off to decent-to-great starts and have a big league track record.  And some of them can steal bases.  I am on the fence with Edwin Encarnacion - I like him more than Longoria this year, but I'm not sure if Dusty will let him play through his slump.  Hank Blalock is another borderline call; I'd probably stick with him.

Here are some third basemen I would drop/trade to accomodate Longoria: Josh Fields, Troy Glaus,  Ty Wigginton, Mike Lowell, Scott Rolen, Casey Blake, and Melvin Mora.  You probably didn't need me to tell you most of those.  Aubrey Huff and Joe Crede give me pause, but...yes, I'd cut them for Longoria.  An arguable suggestion given their strong starts, but hey, that's my opinion. 

I'd also move the following first baseman to use Longoria in my CI slot: Joey Votto, Jason Giambi, Adam LaRoche, Kevin Youkilis, Casey Kotchman, and Richie Sexson.

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Cueto Trivia

Does this mean anything? 

Using Baseball-Reference's Play Index, I determined that Johnny Cueto was the first pitcher in the history of baseball to debut with at ten or more strikeouts and no walks.

I stretched the search to see if anyone did it within their first five games.  Mixed bag - Kerry Wood's 20 K game and a bunch of 10 K/0 BB efforts:

• Johnny Cueto (2008)
• Kerry Wood (1998)
• Andy Sonnanstine (2007 vs. Marlins; a lot of guys abused them for Ks last year)
• Randy Wolf (1999)
• Frank DiPino (1982) - had some good years but switched to the pen after his rookie season
• Dennis Ribant (1964) - didn't amount to much

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Cueto Dominant In Debut

I wrote about Johnny Cueto a few weeks ago.  The projection systems said he wouldn't contribute in mixed leagues this year, while the scouts disagreed.   I wrote that I was leaning toward the scouts.  Young pitchers seem more apt to blow away projections than do young hitters.  A dominant Double or Triple A starter with nasty stuff can probably get big league hitters out.  Cueto's debut this afternoon was dazzling, with ten Ks and one hit against the D'Backs.

Cueto's available in Yahoo leagues today, and many are wondering whether to use a high waiver claim on him.  The answer is yes.  Don't hold out for a question mark like Clayton Kershaw or Jay Bruce.  Cueto has the talent and opportunity, right now.

Who should you cut for Cueto?  That is difficult to answer except on a case by case basis.  Feel free to leave your drop candidate in the comments and I'll try to answer.  Here are a few answers to the "should I drop him for Cueto" question:

• McGowan: No
• Gallardo: No
• Volquez: Yes
• Harden: Yes 

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A Look At Johnny Cueto

New Reds manager Dusty Baker is quite impressed with 22 year-old righty Johnny Cueto, maybe even enough to put him in the team's rotation to begin the season.  Let's take a look at the diminutive flamethrower.

Last year Cueto pitched at High A, Double A, and Triple A.  He whiffed 170 in 161.3 innings across the three levels.  The Major League Equivalent of his work: a 3.41 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Projections?  A 4.75 ERA and 1.42 WHIP according to Baseball Prospectus.  CHONE: 5.03 and 1.52.  ZiPS: 4.97 and 1.38.  The computers say to avoid Cueto in mixed leagues.

The scouts love him - mid 90s heater, good slider and changeup, good makeup.  Keep an eye on this one.  My opinion of him leans towards the scouts rather than the computers. 

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