Philadelphia Phillies

Transaction Analysis: Pierre, Lidge, Francis

Other than that little matter with that big first baseman, it was a relatively quiet week for transactions. But quiet isn't silent, and when I saw that Juan Pierre signed with Philadelphia, Brad Lidge joined Washington, and Jeff Francis agreed to terms with Cincinnati, it occurred to me that this would have been a huge day back in 2007. Pierre was coming off a 64-steal season, Lidge had just resurrected his career (for the first time), and Francis won 17 games leading Colorado to the NL Pennant.

How times change. Pierre and Francis have signed minor league contracts, while Lidge will earn just $1MM. All three entered the offseason with the potential (however slight) at being fantasy contributors, but all three find themselves in situations that significantly diminish their values but bear at least some attention.

Juan Pierre

Pierre joins a crowded left-field picture for the Phillies, and he will vie with John Mayberry, Laynce Nix, and Domonic Brown for playing time. It's possible that he won't make the team, or that he will be relegated to pinch -unning duty, both of which obviously kill whatever fantasy value the 34-year-old speedster had left after stealing just 27 bases for Ozzie Guillen's White Sox in 2011. Those desperate for steals (in leagues that don't count CS, at least) should keep an eye on Pierre, though, as he has a knack for worming his way into Major League lineups. Pay extra attention if Ryan Howard's injury lingers.

Pierre isn't the only player whose potential value takes a downturn with this move, as Brown just got another roadblock to playing time. This doesn't end his chances at winning a starting job, but it certainly doesn't make it any easier.

Brad Lidge

 Say what you want about Lidge, the guy doesn't stay down. Or up. Off the top of my head, I can't think of a higher-variance ballplayer than Lidge, who can be the worst reliever in baseball or the best. Though it seems safe to say his best years are behind him, the upside that seems to follow him led to speculation that he might land a closing gig somewhere. That speculation ends with his deal with the Nationals. Though he earned the prestige of a Major League deal, it doesn't look like he'll be pitching in the ninth inning, or even the eighth with Drew Storen closing and All-Star Tyler Clippard setting up. Though trade rumors swirled about Storen over the summer, it seems unlikely that a Washington team with dreams of contention would trade both at once.  

Lidge's best chance at fantasy-relevance may hinge on pitching well enough to get traded into another team's stopper job. Deep leagues can at least note that his strikeout rate has never dipped below a batter per inning.

Jeff Francis

Though teams like the Mets and Mariners were thought to have interest -- and room in their rotations -- for Francis, he signed a minor league deal with a Reds team that doesn't have room for the starters they already had. Coming off a mediocre 2011 in which his 4.10 FIP wasn't good but was better than his 4.82 ERA and 16 losses suggested, Francis might have been worth a late-round flier in deep leagues. If he manages to crack the Reds' rotation (he's probably seventh in line if Aroldis Chapman is under real consideration) he'd be worth a look, as Cincinnati looks to compete and Francis's 47% GB rate ought to play decently in cozy Great American Ball Park.

It would probably take a trade or injury to get Francis into the Cincinnati rotation, but if it happens he could be a useful two-start pitcher or streamer, though that's probably where the upside is.

Five years ago, all three of these guys looked like (or even were) fantasy mainstays. At the beginning of the offseason they looked like they could still help your team if they found the right situation. None of them did.

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Time To Pick Up Joe Blanton?

Phillies starter Joe Blanton is owned in less than 5% of ESPN leagues, which will probably trend upward after his 10K effort against Tampa Bay last night.  Has anything changed with the 28 year-old righty?

First off Blanton is in his first full National League season.  He bumped up his K/9 upon joining the NL last year, from a career-worst 4.4 to a career-best 6.2.  This year it's much higher at 8.3.  This is reminiscent of Bronson Arroyo, who took the NL by storm in 2006 and faded thereafter.

Blanton's always had solid control, and that's continued this year.  His two problems have been hits and home runs, which have led to a 5.06 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 83.6 innings.  While Blanton has the weakest groundball rate of his career, he still shouldn't continue allowing HRs at 17.5% per flyball.  As for the hits, Blanton's .316 BABIP exceeds his team's .308 by a touch.

XFIP says Blanton has pitched worthy of a 3.96 ERA, and his Expected WHIP is about 1.40.  So he will not help your WHIP without some good fortune in hits or improved control.  It might not be a trend, but Blanton has a 1.95 BB/9 for June and did flash that kind of control in 2007.

Blanton is sitting at the same 89.4 mph fastball as always, but has dialed up slider usage at the expense of his curveball.  He's also using an unidentified pitch almost 10% of the time, a career-high.

Blanton's next matchups are scheduled against the Braves, Mets, and Pirates.  Nothing too terrifying in there, given the Mets' depleted lineup.

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2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Shane Victorino

Recently a friend suggested to me that Shane Victorino looked like a pretty good sleeper.  I agreed - I've got him at .280-15-63-91-29 in 550 ABs.  Maybe not a five-category guy, but a well-rounded addition to the middle of your outfield in the eighth round.

Then I looked more closely at Victorino's 2007.  Not only did he have to battle with Jayson Werth somewhat for playing time, but a calf strain limited him to only 47 ABs in the season's final two months.  This year, it's Geoff Jenkins who will have to deal with Werth.  Victorino has center field all to himself with the departure of Aaron Rowand.

I got to wondering how Victorino might perform if he was healthy for all of '08 and performed at his '07 pace.  I'll just wipe away the final two months and look at the first four.  The result:

614 ABs
174 hits
.284 average
17 HR
63 RBI
108 Runs
48 steals
$27.09 value
10th most valuable position player; 3rd-ranked OF

Whoa!  Obviously we can't pencil Victorino in for these numbers.  But the potential for a monster fantasy season is there, and I'd advise grabbing Victorino in the seventh or eighth round of a 12 team 5x5 mixed league.  Can you think of anyone else drafted outside of the first 90 picks who could have first or second-round value this year? 

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Second Half Sleepers - Philadelphia Phillies

Before we discuss Phillies sleepers, a brief aside on trade rumors involving the Mets.  The Mets have been rumored to be after a myriad of players, but speculation always runs rampant in New York. 

Among the names tossed out include Alfonso Soriano, Jose Mesa, Danys Baez, Jeff Kent, and Adam Dunn.  None of these players would be worth trading both Yusmeiro Petit and Lastings Milledge.  Those two are the Mets #1 pitching and position prospects, respectively.  Only for Adam Dunn should the Mets consider trading one of them.

On to the Philadelphia Phillies.  Are there any hidden gems on this squad?

Jimmy Rollins has a bit of a Corey Patterson complex, fancying himself a power hitter and never taking a walk.  Rollins was just rewarded with a huge contract that the Phils will regret within a few years.  In fantasy baseball, however, Rollins is a hot commodity.  He might steal 50 bags one of these years along with 20 HRs.  Jimmy's .277-8-28-23 line this year doesn't impress much to an owner who paid big bucks before the season to acquire Rollins.  Deal for him if you're making a push towards fantasy gold this year.

Pat Burrell's resurgence was unexpected by most, and his patience at the plate implies more of the same.  Burrell is only 28, so take a gamble on the injuries and acquire him for a Dontrelle Willis type. 

Jim Thome is finished, so pick up Ryan Howard if it's not too late.  For a waiver wire pickup, Howard will give you decent production.  He'll hit around .270 and can hit 25-30 HRs in a full season.  Don't overpay for him in next year's auction, though - his numbers may not be above average for a first baseman.

Ugueth Urbina is a somewhat shaky reliever at this point in his career, but be alert in the event of a Billy Wagner deal.  Urbina is the only possible replacement for Wagner as Philly closer.

Robinson Tejeda's 2.90 ERA looks mighty fine right about now, but he's a sell-high candidate if you own him.  His WHIP is 1.39 as he's been walking people like crazy.  His ERA won't stay under 3 or even 4 if it keeps up. 

If Vicente Padilla is dumped in a trade, keep an eye on Ryan Madson.  If Madson is thrown into the rotation he's a nice sleeper.  Plenty of Ks and otherwise solid peripherals.

Speaking of Ks, Brett Myers is for real.  If a fellow owner thinks it's a fluke or doesn't appreciate the strikeouts, pluck Myers from the ingrate.  Myers is primed for an excellent run for several years.

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