Outfielders

Outfielder Rankings

The outfield is next, as we've ranked catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, and third basemen already.  These dollar values apply to 5x5 12-team mixed leagues with standard categories.  Average draft position from Mock Draft Central is in parentheses.  Warning: these are not similar to the rankings you'll find in a standard-issue fantasy magazine at the grocery store.  Also, they are subject to change at my whim!

1. Ryan Braun (1) - $29.25
2. Carl Crawford (2) - $27.87
3. Nelson Cruz (3) - $26.68
4. Carlos Gonzalez (1) - $26.15
5. Matt Holliday (2) - $24.01
6. Josh Hamilton (2) - $20.80
7. Matt Kemp (2) - $19.95
8. Mike Stanton (13) - $19.94
9. Shin-Soo Choo (3) - $19.75
10. Rajai Davis (25) - $16.40
11. Jayson Werth (5) - $15.63
12. Juan Pierre (12) - $15.00
13. Jay Bruce (7) - $14.88
14. Andrew McCutchen (4) - $14.82
15. Justin Upton (4) - $14.48
16. Corey Hart (9) - $13.66
17. Jason Heyward (5) - $13.57
18. Hunter Pence (8) - $13.31
19. Jose Bautista (5) - $13.31
20. Alex Rios (6) - $13.26
21. Ichiro Suzuki (3) - $12.99
22. Ryan Raburn (29) - $12.63
23. Jacoby Ellsbury (6) - $12.41
24. Shane Victorino (13) - $12.22
25. Andre Ethier (4) - $11.70
26. B.J. Upton (6) - $11.52
27. Carlos Beltran (24) - $11.24
28. Chris Young (9) - $11.20
29. Brett Gardner (17) - $11.10
30. Curtis Granderson (7) - $11.05
31. Delmon Young (10) - $10.22
32. Torii Hunter (8) - $10.19
33. Coco Crisp (29) - $9.61
34. Michael Bourn (10) - $9.51
35. Andres Torres (25) - $9.50
36. Bobby Abreu (11) - $9.45
37. Nick Markakis (10) - $9.41
38. Jose Tabata (23) - $9.07
39. Drew Stubbs (14) - $8.96
40. Sean Rodriguez (30) - $8.27
41. Colby Rasmus (8) - $8.26
42. Ryan Ludwick (11) - $7.89
43. Denard Span (15) - $7.82
44. Chris Coghlan (33) - $7.74
45. Carlos Quentin (19) - $7.60
46. Vernon Wells (9) - $7.41
47. Carlos Lee (12) - $7.18
48. Adam Jones (16) - $7.07
49. Nick Swisher (11) - $6.69
50. Jason Bay (13) - $6.63
51. Ben Zobrist (11) - $6.62
52. Travis Snider (26) - $6.32
53. Austin Jackson (28) - $6.17
54. Angel Pagan (26) - $6.11
55. Aubrey Huff (10) - $5.99
56. Nate McLouth (33) - $5.35
57. Manny Ramirez (15) - $5.25
58. Michael Cuddyer (24) - $5.17
59. Grady Sizemore (9) - $4.96
60. Logan Morrison (25) - $4.32
61. Julio Borbon (30) - $4.10
62. Magglio Ordonez (20) - $4.01
63. Dexter Fowler (24) - $3.67
64. Cameron Maybin (Not drafted) - $3.38
65. Josh Willingham (31) - $2.98
66. Johnny Damon (22) - $2.73
67. Michael Brantley (Not drafted) - $2.62
68. Alfonso Soriano (9) - $2.62
69. Alex Gordon (34) - $2.18
70. Jason Kubel (12) - $1.32
71. Omar Infante (25) - $1.09
72. Marlon Byrd (31) - $1.00
73. J.D. Drew (30) - $0.95
74. Nyjer Morgan (31) - $0.50
75. Domonic Brown (29) - $0.24
76. Cody Ross (33) - $0.01

Let's begin with more disclaimers.  I am not saying you should draft Stanton in the first or second round, nor am I saying that I think he's a better bet than Choo.  Choo has done his thing for two and a half big league seasons, Stanton just a half.  The point is more that with 570 ABs I can see Stanton hitting 40 home runs and driving in 110 - and I don't think I'm going out on a limb with that.  He's just unproven, and that's why he comes at a discount.  Rightfully so.

Others come at a discount because of injury history.  Barring a Chipper Jones situation where the guy simply cannot get 550-600 ABs this year, I typically project players for full seasons.  So guys like Cruz and Hamilton are getting 550 right now, and you can see that Cruz would be one of the game's top fantasy outfielders if he avoids the DL.

Also, my valuations consistently show that fantasy leaguers undervalue steals.  I'm not sure exactly why, but a one steal in a vacuum is worth just as much as one home run (of course, the homer has more residual benefits).  Take Davis' projected line of a .281 AVG, 7 HR,  57 RBI, 82 R, and 52 SB.  His value would be almost the same if he had a .281 AVG, 52 HR, 82 RBI, 57 R, and 7 SB.  Putting aside the rarity of a line like that, if he projected as a 50 HR guy you'd sure as hell draft him earlier than the 25th round.  The burners don't have the same aesthetic appeal as the sluggers in fantasy leagues, but they often have similar value.  Of course, the value of an SB goes down if you get a ridiculous amount of them, so don't stock up on Davis, Pierre, and Gardner just because of the nice dollar values.

Another important point on my valuations: they are not linear.  As a player gets further away from being a $1 guy, his value increases exponentially.  A 20% increase in ABs increases value by much more than 20%.  For example, if Manny Ramirez gets 600 ABs instead of my projected 500, he goes from $5.25 to $13.74.  Players such as Ellsbury, Quentin, Sizemore, Willingham, Soriano, Kubel, and Brown are projected for fewer than 530 ABs right now.  If you like them for 575-600 you should draft them earlier.

Overall I've got some aggressive AB projections; I usually prefer to see what a guy can do if he maintains his standing as a regular.  So I'm showing you that Raburn can do .273-25-90-86-8 with 575 ABs, but it's up to you on draft day to guess as to whether he'll really get that many ABs.  Guys like Crisp, Tabata, Coghlan - they're projected as regulars and I'm not putting them down for DL time right now.

Right now my projections aren't giving huge counting stats to someone like Justin Upton, but the kid is certainly capable of 30 homers, 100 RBIs, and 20 SBs.  Don't get boxed in my dollar values and ignore obvious potential.

I always aim for balance, and outfield offers about 13 true five-category guys: Braun, Cruz, CarGo, Holliday, Kemp, Choo, Werth, Justin Upton, Hart, Heyward, Pence, Beltran, and Hunter.  That's the group if you limit it to a .280 average, double digit homers and steals, and 80+ RBIs and runs.  Guys like Hamilton, Rios, and Jones can creep into that mix too.

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The Potential Of Jay Bruce

Heading into the season Reds right fielder Jay Bruce was being drafted in the 11th round on average.  We had him down for .269-32-91-85-8 in 560 ABs.  His actual line: .281-25-70-80-5 in 509 ABs.  He missed some time in September with an abdomen injury, and also was benched against tough lefties earlier in the season.  Projected to 560 ABs he would've hit .281-28-77-88-6, pretty close to our projection aside from RBIs.

Bruce fell a bit short of the breakout some fantasy touts predicted or hoped for, but his age 23 season was definitely his best yet.  He provided excellent 11th-round value.  In 2011 I think people will be salivating on draft day, given Bruce's obvious talent.  He could be drafted as early as the fifth round.  Will he be worth that level of speculation?

The first thing to note is that Bruce probably won't be benched much next year, having proven his ability to hit lefties.  Hit AB totals in May, June, and July suggest he'd be around 590 in a healthy, full season.  Right there you're looking at 30 home runs without any growth.

Bruce's .281 batting average may not be sustainable; Baseball HQ's xBA stat had him at .260.  His 26.7% strikeout rate was on the high side, 25th in baseball among those with 400+ PAs.

We mentioned the 30 home run potential.  This year 15 of Bruce's home runs came in his final 133 ABs.  That's a ridiculous rate, but it was only two months.  It's enough to hint that Bruce could be a 40 home run player in 2011 though.

In the RBI department keep in mind he spent 48% of his plate appearances in the #6 spot in the lineup and 40% in the #5 spot.  Assuming the Reds don't bring in a big name to play left field, I could see Bruce find more of a permanent home at #5 behind Joey Votto and Scott Rolen.  That means more RBIs.

Bruce attempted nine steals and found success on only five.  Compared to how many times he was on first base, he really didn't attempt many steals.  He may get a few extra swipes by improving his success rate, but he's not a 10 steal guy unless something changes.  Sometimes a player just decides to run more, but don't count on steals from Bruce.

Entirely using gut feel, I'd put Bruce down for something like .270-35-100-90-5 next year.  Not too many players hit 35 homers these days, and the steals help.  Even without a massive breakout type campaign, Bruce's power numbers should make him a top 10 fantasy outfielder in the vein of Vladimir Guerrero or Corey Hart this year.  I'm intrigued enough to say a fifth or sixth round selection is justified.

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Peter Bourjos Examined

The Angels called up center fielder Peter Bourjos on August 3rd, with Torii Hunter moving to right field to accommodate the rookie.  Serving as the Angels' ninth-place hitter, Bourjos has started all seven Angels games since his promotion.

28 big league plate appearances isn't much of a sample, though Bourjos has scored four runs and swiped two bags in that brief time.  At Triple A this year he hit .314/.364/.498 in 455 PAs (102 games).  He hit 13 home runs with 12 triples and 27 stolen bases in 32 attempts.

Bourjos' game is all about speed.  His wheels enable him to play plus center field defense, so that should keep him in the lineup even if his offensive numbers don't sparkle.  Playing time is not an issue, but can fantasy leaguers expect tons of steals?  In the minors Bourjos attempted to steal 27.6% of the time when he singled or walked (a rate that drops if we include Bourjos' ten HBPs).  I'd like to see more - the game's top thieves typically attempt to steal around 40% of the time.

Using the MLE calculator at MinorLeagueSplits.com, here's how Bourjos profiles over 550 ABs: .256-12-47-78-29.  It's a line worth about $6, similar to the value provided by Alex Rios or Vernon Wells last year.  It's nothing to write home about; you might do just as well grabbing Corey Patterson, Will Venable, or Coco Crisp off a mixed league waiver wire if you're desperate for steals.  We don't know if Bourjos' 12 home run type power will translate to the Majors, especially over the next two months as a rookie.

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Outfielder Rankings

Time for our outfield rankings for 12-team 5x5 mixed leagues with 14 hitters and 9 pitchers.  Average draft round is in parentheses.

1. Ryan Braun (1) - $31.37
2. Matt Kemp (1) - $26.52
3. Carl Crawford (2) - $25.14
4. Jacoby Ellsbury (2) - $23.34
5. Matt Holliday (2) - $21.67
6. Nelson Cruz (6) - $19.97
7. Grady Sizemore (3) - $18.89
8. Jayson Werth (3) - $16.56
9. Justin Upton (3) - $16.06
10. Carlos Lee (6) - $15.23
11. Nick Markakis (5) - $14.36
12. Andrew McCutchen (8) - $14.20
13. B.J. Upton (5) - $13.59
14. Rajai Davis (14) - $13.28
15. Curtis Granderson (5) - $13.19
16. Michael Bourn (8) - $13.09 
17. Jay Bruce (11) - $13.06
18. Juan Pierre (20) - $12.76
19. Jason Bay (3) - $12.53
20. Shin-Soo Choo (6) - $12.38
21. Adam Lind (4) - $12.19
22. Ben Zobrist (5) - $12.07
23. Bobby Abreu (7) - $11.89
24. Shane Victorino (6) - $11.62
25. Julio Borbon (17) - $11.62
26. Hunter Pence (8) - $11.28
27. Adam Jones (8) - $10.94
28. Chris Coghlan (20) - $10.67
29. Manny Ramirez (6) - $10.66
30. Ichiro Suzuki (4) - $10.40
31. Andre Ethier (6) - $10.17
32. Torii Hunter (9) - $10.01
33. Denard Span (11) - $9.95
34. Josh Hamilton (5) - $9.76
35. Nate McLouth (8) - $8.91
36. Adam Dunn (5) - $8.84
37. Nyjer Morgan (11) - $8.56
38. Carlos Quentin (9) - $8.21
39. Johnny Damon (11) - $7.85
40. Garrett Jones (13) - $7.30
41. Alex Rios (10) - $6.99
42. Alfonso Soriano (7) - $6.88
43. Carlos Gonzalez (11) - $6.34
44. Franklin Gutierrez (22) - $6.21
45. Corey Hart (17) - $6.04
46. Carlos Beltran (8) - $5.68
47. Cody Ross (26) - $5.63
48. Michael Cuddyer (10) - $5.54
49. Nolan Reimold (17) - $5.40
50. Ryan Ludwick (16) - $5.33
51. Kyle Blanks (27) - $5.10
52. Jason Kubel (10) - $4.65
53. Travis Snider (21) - $4.49
54. Magglio Ordonez (25) - $3.96
55. Brad Hawpe (10) - $3.67
56. Raul Ibanez (8) - $3.66
57. Cameron Maybin (25) - $3.65
58. Vernon Wells (17) - $3.46
59. Jermaine Dye (16) - $3.44
60. Coco Crisp (28) - $3.34
61. Carlos Gomez (20) - $3.16
62. Conor Jackson (27) - $2.86
63. Jake Fox (28) - $2.45
64. Juan Rivera (15) - $2.30
65. Mark DeRosa (21) - $2.25
66. Matt Diaz (N/A) - $1.95
67. Marlon Byrd (26) - $1.93
68. Jeff Francoeur (28) - $1.65
69. Josh Willingham (22) - $1.63
70. Scott Podsednik (28) - $1.57
71. Drew Stubbs (27) - $1.41
72. Mike Cameron (21) - $1.14
73. Nick Swisher (21) - $1.00
74. Ryan Raburn (28) - $0.91
75. Brett Gardner (28) - $0.54

Is it possible that Cruz is being undervalued again, following a 33 HR, 20 SB season in 462 ABs?  I think so.  I also feel that Carlos Lee has slipped too far.  McCutchen is a nice upside pick - I have him at .279-16-67-97-32 in 625 ABs, but I could see more.

Davis would need 550 ABs to get my projected 81 runs and 54 SBs.  Similarly, Pierre's ranking comes with a 625 AB projection, Borbon's 575 ABs.  Keep an eye on Bruce as a breakout candidate.  Coghlan, Garrett Jones, Hart, Gutierrez, and Ross all appear undervalued.  It's important to pay attention to those who are expected to steal double-digit bags and those who aren't.

On the overvalued side, Bay scares me in the 3rd round.  Ichiro in the 4th is also worrisome, if he stays below 30 SB.  Ibanez looks questionable as well.

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Outfield Rankings

Next up, our outfielder rankings.  These dollar values apply to 5x5 mixed leagues with the standard categories and roster size.  I used 20 games for eligibility.  These rankings are extra-tentative since tweaks in playing time could change things quite a bit.

Alexei Ramirez would be worth $13.11 as an OF, while Felipe Lopez checks in at $3.29.  On to the rankings (draft round in parentheses):

1. Ryan Braun - $31.62 (1)
2. Grady Sizemore - $27.98 (1)
3. Matt Holliday - $25.93 (2)
4. B.J. Upton - $25.33 (2)
5. Carlos Beltran - $24.88 (2)
6. Alfonso Soriano - $24.69 (3)
7. Carlos Lee - $21.25 (3)
8. Josh Hamilton - $20.74 (1)
9. Matt Kemp - $20.71 (4)
10. Manny Ramirez - $20.55 (2)
11. Vladimir Guerrero - $20.18 (4)
12. Nick Markakis - $18.11 (3)
13. Jay Bruce - $17.36 (9)
14. Jacoby Ellsbury - $17.30 (5)
15. Jayson Werth - $17.07 (12)
16. Jason Bay - $17.04 (3)
17. Nate McLouth - $17.01 (6)
18. Carl Crawford - $16.60 (3)
19. Bobby Abreu - $16.48 (6)
20. Alex Rios - $16.34 (4)
21. Hunter Pence - $16.16 (7)
22. Corey Hart - $15.78 (5)
23. Curtis Granderson - $15.62 (5)
24. Nelson Cruz - $15.23 (12)
25. Carlos Quentin - $15.23 (4)
26. Ichiro Suzuki - $14.83 (3)
27. Adam Dunn - $14.77 (6)
28. Ryan Ludwick - $14.44 (8)
29. Torii Hunter - $13.67 (10)
30. Magglio Ordonez - $13.07 (6)
31. Shane Victorino - $13.03 (5)
32. Chris Young - $12.49 (10)
33. Johnny Damon - $12.12 (10)
34. Jermaine Dye - $11.91 (8)
35. Andre Ethier - $11.83 (10)
36. Raul Ibanez - $9.83 (10)
37. Vernon Wells - $9.50 (9)
38. Adam Jones - $8.86 (18)
39. Brad Hawpe - $7.63 (12)
40. Conor Jackson - $7.59 (18)
41. Lastings Milledge - $6.87 (12)
42. Ryan Spilborghs - $6.10 (27)
43. Xavier Nady - $6.03 (13)
44. Mike Cameron - $5.29 (27)
45. Milton Bradley - $5.26 (12)
46. Coco Crisp - $5.04 (27)
47. Rick Ankiel - $4.95 (19)
48. Delmon Young - $4.94 (22)
49. Willy Taveras - $4.71 (13)
50. Mark DeRosa - $4.64 (16)
51. Justin Upton - $3.80 (20)
52. Shin-Soo Choo - $3.69 (24)
53. Denard Span - $3.60 (19)
54. Michael Bourn - $3.36 (27)
55. Adam Lind - $3.25 (23)
56. Pat Burrell - $3.21 (13)
57. J.D. Drew - $3.05 (24)
58. Randy Winn - $2.87 (27)
59. Ty Wigginton -$2.78 (18)
60. Elijah Dukes - $2.72 (24)
61. Carlos Gomez - $2.61 (25)
62. David DeJesus - $2.30 (27)
63. Jack Cust - $2.26 (28)
64. Nick Swisher - $1.66 (17)
65. Fred Lewis - $1.44 (23)
66. Jody Gerut - $1.26 (ND)
67. Jeremy Hermida - $0.97 (17)
68. Josh Willingham - $0.54 (28)
69. Luke Scott - $0.53 (22)
70. Jeff Francoeur - $0.36 (24)
71. Jason Kubel - $0.24 (28)
72. Jose Guillen - $0.22 (27)

Just missed: Aaron Rowand, Cody Ross, Daniel Murphy, Kosuke Fukudome, Hideki Matsui, Juan Pierre, David Murphy, Chris Dickerson, Travis Snider, Chase Headley.

Guys I don't like at their current draft positions: Hamilton, Quentin, Ichiro, Nady, and Burrell.

Potential bargains: Kemp, Bruce, Werth, Pence, Cruz, Jones, Jackson, and Spilborghs.

For certain guys in their early 20s, I'd use the dollar values as a mere suggestion.  We know guys like Bruce, Upton, and Jones are capable of breakout years.

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