Outfielders

Go Bold or Go Home: Ben Zobrist Is a Top-30 Fantasy Pick

You may have read about the ongoing campaign to have a Robocop statue built in downtown Detroit, a project I fully support, by the way.  More cities totally need to build tributes to their pop culture icons; there is no good reason why we couldn't have a bronze Heisenberg erected in downtown Albuquerque by the end of the year.  Besides, a Robocop statue would be a nice companion piece to the Zobocop statue that fantasy owners built in 2012 in honor of Ben Zobrist's three-position eligibility.

Ah, Zobrist as a shortstop.  Just remembering that wonderful day last summer when the Rays experimented with moving the Rock Zobster back to short brings a smile to my face.  Zobrist began his career as a shortstop, of course, and took to the position again with little issue, making Joe Maddon a hero to fantasy owners everywhere. 

Now, I may be praising this situation because it specifically helped me out of a fix in a league last year, but I couldn't have been the only one.  I'd drafted Troy Tulowitzki as my starting shortstop and watched in horror as his season was halted at the end of May.  That left me with a big hole at SS and given that Yunel Escobar (my backup) was also struggling and the middle infield waiver wire was as barren as ever, I was in a tight spot...until Zobrist began getting starts at short.  Zobrist owners the world over joyously counted down the days until he officially gained eligibility and then, my shortstop problem was solved; I just slid Sheriff Zobo from outfield to short and boom, I was set. 

There's nothing that fantasy owners appreciate more than options.  We all love to embrace our inner Joe Maddon and mix and match our lineups whenever possible since (let's be honest) it's kind of an ego boost.  This is why, with apologies to Jose Oquendo, Zobrist became the Secret Weapon of the 2012 fantasy baseball season.  His dual eligibility as both an outfielder and a second baseman was already valuable, and adding shortstop to the mix just shot his usefulness through the roof.

It's for this reason that I would jump on Zobrist as quickly as possible in your upcoming draft.  It blows my mind that the Mask of Zobo only has a 72.23 ADP in Mock Draft Central's most recent average draft position report and is, on average, the 68th player taken.  That means in your standard 12-team league, Zobrist is still available by the sixth round, making him an incredible bargain at that stage of the game. 

If you're in a league with no bench spots on your roster, I'd argue that Zobrist could be a second-round pick given that his versatility will allow you some precious flexibility in a roster setup that specifically limits flexibility.  Even in a standard 5x5 league with bench spots, however, I'd say that Zobrist should go no lower than the third round based on sheer production alone.

While everyone was fixated on the "SS" designation next to his name last season, let's not overlook the fact that Zobrist hit .270/.377/.471 with 20 homers, 74 RBI, 88 runs and 14 steals.  That's a good season no matter where you play on the field, but it's particularly valuable at the middle infield spots.  Zobrist's .848 OPS was topped by only two second basemen (Robinson Cano and Aaron Hill) and exactly ZERO shortstops; Ian Desmond came closest at .845.  Even at the deeper outfield position, only thirteen outfielders posted higher OPS marks than Zobrist in 2012.

The warning signs on Zobrist are his age (he turns 32 in May) and the fact that he has been having greater difficulty hitting at Tropicana Field in recent years, as evidenced by his large home/road splits (.916 OPS away/.773 home in 2012, .897 away/.738 home in 2011).  That said, I'll worry about a decline when I start to actually see signs, and to me, Leelee Zobieski seems like a pretty safe bet to at least replicate his 2012 numbers in 2013. 

That alone would make him arguably the top fantasy shortstop given how many question marks surround the other top-rated SS candidates, though I suspect the continually-improving Desmond and a healthy Tulowitzki will be at the top of the heap come season's end.  Amongst the top second basemen, I'd put Zobrist behind only Cano and Hill, as I agree with Alex Steers McCrum's evaluation of Hill and I've already outlined some of the concerns facing other highly-drafted second basemen.

Taking Zobrist early means you can essentially cover two of the traditionally-shallowest positions right off the bat and then focus on middle infield help later if one of your sleepers is still around in the ninth or tenth round.  Like real-life general managers, your draft strategy can become "picking the best player available" without worrying too much about position since you've already got the Swiss Army Zobrist on your roster.  Given the volatility of those middle infield spots, Zobrist can also be shifted partway through the season if that sleeper you liked in your draft never actually wakes up during the season.

It's just simple fantasy logic that a player who can play three positions is more valuable than a player who can play only one, if everything else is equal.  Dustin Pedroia may hit as well as Zobrist in 2013 or even better but I'll still take Zobrist first since Zobo The Greek has more innate value within the actual game of fantasy baseball.  His versatility can help you as much as it helps the Rays in real life, so don't hesitate to jump on Zobrist early in your draft.  If my advice pays off, you can build a statue in my honor.

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Draft Round Battles: Cespedes Vs. Ellsbury

Admit it, Yoenis Cespedes kind of seemed like a modern Sidd Finch hoax, didn't he?  It was hard to watch Cespedes' legendary workout video with a straight face; sure, he's an impressive athlete but really, who uses "Sailing" as their background music without being ironic?

As luck would have it for the A's, however, Cespedes wasn't a viral marketing creation but an actual legitimate talent.  The Cuban outfielder hit .292/.356/.505 with 23 homers to help lead Oakland to the AL West title and Cespedes would've been a slam dunk Rookie of the Year in any normal, non-Mike Trout season.  To very weirdly paraphrase Teri Hatcher here, Cespedes was real and he was spectacular.

While Cespedes emerged from a fog of uncertainty and rose to Major League stardom, the question now is whether or not he can sustain his performance.  This was a question the Red Sox faced on a lower level about a year ago, when Jacoby Ellsbury was about to follow up his monster 2011 campaign.  Ellsbury had already been a good average/OBP and especially steals kind of player before exploding with a monster 32-homer, 39-steal, .321/.376/.552 season in 2011 that earned him a second-place finish in the AL MVP vote.  The power came completely out of nowhere for Ellsbury so the question was whether 2011 was an outlier or whether he could be counted on as a legit 30-30 threat for the future.

The Red Sox are still asking that question.  Ellsbury missed more than half of the 2012 season with a shoulder injury, finishing with a .271/.313/.370 line and four homers over 323 PA.  Given that he missed virtually all of the 2010 season, Ellsbury presents a real conundrum for both the Sox and his fantasy owners --- how much should you rely on a guy who has sandwiched an elite season in between two total washout campaigns?

Every team (both real and fantasy) obviously loves the five-tool player, but such a player perhaps has even more value in fantasy baseball.  Stolen bases are a unique category in that being able to swipe bags doesn't have any bearing on the rest of your hitting stats; as such, fantasy managers often have to grin and bear it by keeping a terrible hitter in their lineup simply because they can provide some much-needed steals.  When you can find a player that can slug and steal with equal aplomb, it's like striking gold, which is why Trout was unquestionably the player who swung the most fantasy leagues in 2012 and Ellsbury's surprise breakout in 2011 probably decided almost as many fantasy championships.

Of the 48 players who stole 20 or more bases in 2012, only eight (Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Jason Heyward, Ian Desmond, Shin-Soo Choo, Alex Rios, Ryan Braun and Trout) had an OPS of .800 or better.  Cespedes chipped in 16 steals to go with his .861 OPS last season, and of players with an .861 OPS or better, only five (Braun, Trout, McCutchen, Gonzalez and Chase Headley) topped the 16-steal mark.  While 16 steals won't decide the SB category, if you can get that kind of production from a big bat, you're laughing.

I would argue that Cespedes isn't likely to suffer much of a dropoff in his sophomore season.  Though he's still something of an unknown quantity, the fact that he improved his numbers as the season went on and the fact that Cespedes hit so well in the pitcher-friendly Coliseum (he actually had a .937 OPS in home games, as opposed to a .791 OPS on the road) both stand out as positives.  Also, don't forget that he had his own injury problems early in the year and only played in 128 games, so had Cespedes been healthy all the way, he might've given Trout a run for his money.

So if Cespedes will be roughly the same player in 2013 that he was in 2012, can Ellsbury top that impressive plateau?  My guess is no.  Presuming he's healthy the whole year, Ellsbury will hit around .300, score 95-105 runs, and steal at least 40 bases (manager John Farrell loved to give runners the green light in Toronto so 40 steals for Ellsbury may be a conservative estimate).  Those are valuable fantasy numbers in themselves but where Ellsbury will suffer is in the power department.  I don't see him getting anywhere near his 105 RBIs from 2011 given that he'll be hitting leadoff and that Boston's lineup isn't as deep as it was two years ago. 

As for the homers, I'm tempted to suggest that Ellsbury's 32-HR outburst in 2011 was indeed an anomaly.  Consider that his .552 SLG in 2011 dwarfed his previous career totals and even the .426 SLG he posted in his minor league career (1223 PA).  My favorite "Ellsbury pulled this season out of thing air" stat is that he had 32 homers in 2011 and only 35 homers over the rest of his pro career, including the minors.  There's nothing in the advanced metrics that explains why Ellsbury suddenly dug the long ball that year --- the closest hint of evidence could be a career-best 22.9% line drive rate but Ellsbury had posted other line-drive rates close to that (20.3% both last year and in 2008) without showing nearly the same rise in power numbers.

Ellsbury currently holds the edge over Cespedes on Mock Draft Central's latest average draft position report, as Ellsbury's 46.00 ADP makes him the 15th outfielder taken and the 45th player taken overall, on average.  Cespedes is right behind as the 16th OF, the 50th player overall and he owns a 50.15 ADP. 

Other fantasy owners may think Ellsbury's speed and power potential merits a higher selection but if I'm looking for outfield help come the end of the fourth/start of the fifth round, I'm going with Cespedes.  He's going to help in all five categories, whereas Ellsbury is likely only going to help in three.  Put it this way --- 16 steals may be the bare minimum of what Cespedes can do on the basepaths, whereas based on all the evidence I've seen in Ellsbury's career, I'd be pleasantly surprised if he manages even 16 homers this year.  Drafting Cespedes over Ellsbury will better help you, ahem, "sail" your way to fantasy success.

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Sleepers & Busts: NL West Outfielders

Hunter Pence, SF - ADP 99

There was a time when Pence looked to be emerging as a consistent 25-homer, 20-steal threat, which would easily position him as an elite outfielder given his consistent batting average. That proved to be a pretty fleeting thought, however, and at this point Pence is being drafted more on name value than actual performance.

Pence has seen his stolen base totals plummet from 18 in 2010 all the way down to five last season. Following his trade to the Giants last season, he attempted just one steal. While that attempt was a success, it's probably in the best interest of Giants, fantasy owners, and Pence himself that he stop running. He's a 63 percent base-stealer for his career, so let's not pretend that a return to 15-18 steals is in the offing.

Pence's stolen base total isn't the only thing that's eroding. In 2012, he posted the worst swinging strike rate (12.9 percent), contact rate (72.6 percent) and strikeout rate (21.1 percent) of his career. He'll spend his first full season at AT&T Park as opposed to hitter-friendly venues like Minute Maid (Houston) and Citizens Bank (Philadelphia), which in addition to having deeper dimensions in general also is home to a towering right-field wall that will prevent chip shots like this one from becoming long balls.

In an admittedly small 196-plate-appearance sample size, Pence is just a .253/.318/.425 hitter at AT&T Park, and his other skills are deteriorating. If Pence is simply a .255-.275 hitter with 20-homer power, little speed and an average supporting cast... is he worthy of a Top 100 pick? 

Pence is coming off the board directly ahead of Max Scherzer (whom I love, in case you missed it), Jimmy Rollins, Jose Altuve and Danny Espinosa -- all of whom I prefer to Pence. In terms of outfielders, Austin Jackson, Nick Swisher (a more consistent source of 25ish homers, plus solid RBI and Runs totals), Carlos Beltran and Shane Victorino are all coming off the board well after Pence. Each should produce more value. Don't be fooled by Pence's name.

Final Ruling: Bust

Carlos Quentin, SD - ADP 226

Put aside the fact that we all know Quentin is made of something roughly as durable as a sheet of glass and an eighth grade paper mache project for a second and stick with me.

Quentin laid off out-of-zone pitches at much better rate than in his two previous seasons and became ravenously aggressive on pitches within the zone. The only player with at least 300 PAs who swung at more strikes than Quentin was Josh Hamilton, but Quentin swung at 16 percent fewer pitches outside the zone. Hamilton swung at those strikes because he swings at everything; Quentin's swung because he knew he was being hyper-aggressive on hittable pitches.

And the best part is... it worked! Quentin hit .261/.374/.504 in 86 games, with each rate stat representing his highest total since '08.  His 10.6 percent walk-rate was also his best since that season, and his 12.1 percent strikeout rate was a career-best.

Quentin's probably (ok, certainly) going to wind up spending some time on the disabled list this season. When healthy though, his numbers from 2012 were the best he'd managed since his breakout 2008 season. Playing at Petco Park hurt his numbers a bit, as evidenced by a slight downward trend in his plate appearances per homer (21.25), but his occasional deep drives to right field may yield an extra homer or two, given Petco's new dimensions.

Ichiro Suzuki, Lornezo Cain, Dexter Fowler and Justin Ruggiano -- the four outfielders coming off the board ahead of Quentin -- don't offer nearly the same power upside. He might only garner 400 plate appearances, but those could very well be very fruitful in terms of power output.

Final Ruling: Sleeper

Will Venable, SD - ADP 303

Speaking of those new dimensions at Petco Park, is anyone happier with them than Venable? Venable hit .239/.301/.340 at home last season and hit .286/.365/.509 on the road. That pronounced split has held true throughout his career, as he holds a .675 OPS at home compared to a .799 mark on the road.

That's not the only pronounced split with Venable, whose .583 career OPS versus lefties is dwarfed by his .772 mark against right-handers. If you decide to pursue him on draft day, you should know you're not getting an everyday player. And when he does start against a lefty, get him out of the lineup.

Venable is incredibly valuable when he's in the lineup though. A career 83 percent thief on the basepaths, he's averaged 26 swipes over the past three seasons. He's also averaged 10 homers in that time, and the friendlier dimensions at Petco Park figure to pad those numbers a bit.

Venable posted the best strikeout rate of his career in 2012 (20 percent) -- the second straight season in which he's improved his whiff rate. Both his line-drive and ground-ball rates were career-bests as well, which is a nice thing to see for a hitter whose value is derived more from his wheels than his guns. His plate discipline improved across the board -- fewer chases, more swings at strikes, more contact, and fewer whiffs.

Venable's coming off the board after names like Leonys Martin, Delmon Young, Lucas Duda, Cody Ross and Jeff Francoeur (yes, really -- and 40 spots later than Frenchy, no less!). He's a must-draft in NL-only formats, and even those in deep mixers will be able to glean value from his stellar play against righties, presuming you have a suitable backup when Venable's against a southpaw.

Final Ruling: Sleeper

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2013 Position Rankings: Outfielders

That's right, it's finally here: RotoAuthority's 2013 Position Rankings! Yeah, we're excited. So excited that we're kicking it off with the outfield, just to be that awesome. After a team discussion, featuring Tim Dierkes and the entire RotoAuthority staff, we've prepared tiered rankings that go 60 players deep. The players are divided into groups of similar value, and tiered by where they deserve to be drafted in a standard league. If you're bidding in an auction, consider players in the same tier to be of similar price. If a player has other positions in parentheses, that means you can draft and start him there. That's enough discussion--I mean, you probably skipped this paragraph and went right for the rankings anyway.

Early 1st Round

1. Mike Trout, LAA
2. Ryan Braun, MIL

These guys should be pretty obvious. What might be less obvious is how far they are from anyone else.

Mid-Late 1st Round

3. Andrew McCutchen, PIT
4. Giancarlo Stanton, MIA

I know Stanton's a bit against the grain here, but he's got so much power I don't care. In a better lineup, he'd be up with Trout and Braun.

2nd Round

5. Jose Bautista, TOR
6. Carlos Gonzalez, COL
7. Matt Kemp, LAD
8. Jason Heyward, ATL
9. Bryce Harper, WAS
10. Adam Jones, BAL
11. Justin Upton, ATL

Bautista's great...but in only three categories, while CarGo's perpetual small injuries really hurt his overall stats. Kemp lost speed last year and I'm not 100% confident that he'll get it back right away; combined with October shoulder surgery, that keeps him out of my first round. Heyward and Harper could take huge steps forward. So could Upton, but he's proved capable of taking big steps back too. No matter who you take, a lot of OF's are going in this round.

3rd Round

12. Matt Holliday, STL
13. Curtis Granderson, NYY
14. Josh Hamilton, LAA
15. B.J. Upton, ATL
16. Jay Bruce, CIN
16.5 Adrian Gonzalez, LAD (1B--18 games in OF)

Holliday is pretty underrated--sometimes consistency can keep your price down, I guess. If Granderson's lousy batting average was a BABIP lull, this will be a bargain. If it was a portent of decline, this could be way too high. I think his power is worth the risk. Hamilton is set for a decline, but his 2013 forecast looks better than his keeper future.

4th-5th Rounds

17. Yoenis Cespedes, OAK
18. Mark Trumbo, LAA
19. Shin-Soo Choo, CIN
20. Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
21. Allen Craig, STL (1B)

Cespedes did a bit of everything last year, and it wouldn't surprise anyone if he improved on that performance. Especially with a little more health. Trumbo could rack up some huge RBI totals hitting in the lower half of the Angels' lineup, while Choo should score a ton or runs leading off for Cinncinnati. Ellsbury's 2011 power surge seems like forever ago, but the real risk for him is health. Healthy, and he's an elite OF even without the power. Craig carries health risks too, and it took until his late 20's for him to break out. I'm not screaming "fluke," but I do think there's plenty of downside to go with the potential.

6th-7th Rounds

22. Carlos Beltran, STL
23. Alex Gordon, KCR
24. Nick Swisher, CLE (1B)
25. Austin Jackson, DET
26. Josh Willingham, MIN
27. Ben Zobrist, TBR (2B/SS)
28. Michael Bourn, CLE

Beltran is totally underrated, but he isn't healthy or young, so I can understand some caution. What he is, though, is very, very good, so draft him anyway. If Gordon puts a few more of those 50 doubles over the wall, this could be well under his value. If it doesn't you'll wish you waited a couple rounds on him. Swisher is Matt Holliday lite--he does the same thing every year, therefore impressing no one and keeping his price down. Jackson's always-high BABIP keeps him useful; his wheels and his place atop the Tigers lineup make him very valuable. 

8th-9th Rounds

29. Desmond Jennings, TBR
30. Chris Davis, BAL (1B)
31. Alex Rios, CHW
32. Melky Cabrera, TOR 

Jennings is a good bet for steals and a decent bet for some improvement. Rios's up-and-down history keeps me scared away--which means he could be a great value for anyone braver than I am. What will a post-juice Cabrera do? Probably rack up runs and RBI's playing for Toronto.

10th-11th Rounds

33. Hunter Pence, SFG
34. Nelson Cruz, TEX
35. Angel Pagan, SFG
36. Shane Victorino, BOS
37. Alfonso Soriano, CHC
38. Norichika Aoki, MIL
39. Torii Hunter, DET

 A lot of people think Pence is on the way down, and AT&T park isn't helping. There's upside in going against the grain, but don't reach. Cruz didn't switch ballparks, but he has that PED clinic thing hanging over his head. Don't look now, but Soriano had a very productive year at the plate. Maybe it's time to stop punishing him for taking all those big checks from the Cubbies. I'm not overly optimistic about Hunter, but I think he'll see plenty of RBI opportunities.

12th-13th Rounds

40. Josh Reddick, OAK
41. Martin Prado, ARI (3B)
42. Andre Ethier, LAD
43. Nick Markakis, BAL
44. Ryan Ludwick, CIN
45. Coco Crisp, OAK
46. Ben Revere, PHI
47. Alejandro De Aza, CHW

Ludwick has a lot of power, and, if healthy, he could be one of the outfield's best bargains. Crisp and Revere make great late round speed grabs. A little good luck, and they could give you nearly all the value of higher-priced speedsters at a fraction of the cost.

14th-16th Rounds

48. Mike Morse, SEA
49. Carlos Gomez, MIL
50. Ichiro Suzuki, NYY
51. Jayson Werth, WAS
52. Adam Eaton, ARI
53. Carlos Quentin, SDP
54. Wil Myers, TBR
55. Carl Crawford, LAD
56. Cameron Maybin, SDP
57. Starling Marte, PIT

You know who I never thought would impress me? Carlos Gomez. But check it out, speed and power. Ichiro isn't who he used to be, but don't be shocked if he helps out in runs and steals without hurting in average. Werth's power disappeared last year, so this is purely an upside play. Eaton and Myers have impact-level talent--the only question is when they come up to the Show. Should Myers win the job out of camp, move him up this list. When will Crawford get back? What will he be like when does? I don't know, so I'm not going to count on him for anything.

17th-18th Rounds 

58. Jason Kubel, ARI
59. Dexter Fowler, COL
60. Michael Cuddyer, COL
61. Denard Span, WAS

Yeah, you get a free bonus player--I just couldn't kick Span off the list. Kubel and Cuddyer could do a lot for your power, but they have a lot of health questions. Fowler does everything--except rack up big totals in homers or steals.

Bench OF's to Target (19th Round and Beyond):

Depending on how deep your league goes, you might need to reach a little further into the pool. Instead of taking whichever random guy is next on your draft website's list, grab a bench player to suit your real needs.

Power: Dayan Viciedo, Garrett Jones, Ryan Doumit (C), Jeff Francoeur,  Chris Young, Matthew Joyce

Speed: Brett Gardner, Juan Pierre, Darin Mastroianni, Peter Bourjos, Drew Stubbs

Youth/Upside: Justin Ruggiano, Brandon Moss (1B), Lorenzo Cain,  Oscar Taveras, Leonys Martin

Balance: Michael Saunders, Corey Hart (1B), Cody Ross, Logan Morrison, Colby Rasmus, David Murphy

As always, the outfield is deep. Your best strategy will depend on how many  OF's your league requires you to start each day. If you start five, then you should start grabbing them early. If you only play three, you can afford to get premium players at other positions and fill in your outfield a little later. In either case, I always like to get some extra steals towards the end of the draft and the outfield is a great place to find them.

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Draft Round Battles: Alex Rios Vs. Hunter Pence

Alex Rios was considered to have one of the best bounce-back seasons of 2012, and Rios' "bounce" actually took him to some of his highest levels yet in terms of 5x5 productivity.  Rios posted career highs in batting average (.304), homers (25) and RBI (91), and scored the second-most runs (93) of his career while also adding a healthy 23 steals.  Keeper league owners who hung onto Rios through gritted teeth after his terrible 2011 season were nicely rewarded for their loyalty.

Hunter Pence owners see Rios' situation as a best-case scenario for their guy.  Pence's 24 homers, 104 RBI and 87 runs in 2012 actually topped his 2007-11 career averages but he hit only .253/.319/.425 for the lowest OPS of his six-year career.  This number was largely fueled by the .671 OPS he posted in 248 PA after being traded to San Francisco, plus a lackluster postseason that saw Pence produce more in clubhouse motivation than he did at the plate.  

It was easy to predict some regression for Pence following his .361 BABIP-fueled 2011 campaign but still, this was a troubling drop for a player who had been a very solid fantasy outfielder over the previous five years.  Pence had just a .743 OPS with the Phillies as well, so you can't blame the move to AT&T Park on his down season...though I am going to use the ballpark as an excuse to avoid Pence in my 2013 fantasy draft.  With Petco Park and Safeco Field both moving their fences in next season, AT&T might cement its place as the most pitcher-friendly stadium in baseball.  Frankly, I'm hesitant to take any Giants hitter besides Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval, and even the Panda is a bit of a risk given how his consistency seems to yo-yo from year to year.

Pence will be a free agent next winter and has more incentive than ever to put up a big season, but I'm not really a big believer in the "contract year" phenomenon, especially when more evidence seems to exist that Pence might be starting his decline just before he hits the open market.  Pence struck out a career-worst 21.2% of the time in 2012 and he stole a career-low five bases.  Not that he was ever a big speed guy to begin with (he averaged only 12 swipes a year from 2007-11) but it's another sign that Pence might be turning into a one-dimensional player who relies on home runs to be successful, and that's not a winning formula for a guy who spends half his year trying to hit in a homer-dampening park.

Rios, in contrast, plays in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field, so he's already got an edge on Pence from the get-go.  I'm admittedly not 100 percent sure on Rios in 2013 since he may be due for another one of his down years.  If Sandoval was kind of a yo-yo in terms of consistency, Rios is basically Harvey Lowe.*  Rios had put together three solid years in Toronto before plummeting to a .691 OPS in 2009, playing so poorly that the Jays just outright let Rios (and his hefty contract) go to the White Sox on waivers that August.  Rios rebounded for a .791 OPS/21 HR/88 RBI/34 SB season in 2010, then hit the skids again in 2011 before coming back in 2012.

* = if this isn't the most obscure link in Roto Authority history, then I give up. 

You simply don't know which player is going to show up from year to year when you draft Rios.  The outfielder just turned 32 yesterday, so it seems unlikely that he'll get better than he was last year, and all you can hope for is a repeat performance or only a minor dip.  Not only could there be a natural decline at the plate at Rios' age, but the advancing years will eventually take a toll on his speed; that'd be a big loss for a player whose fantasy value is given a nice boost from his stolen bases.

As indicated by Mock Draft Central's latest average draft position reports, Rios (82.12 ADP) is being taken roughly a round ahead of Pence (97.43 ADP) in most drafts, which seems fair given their 2012 numbers.  I tend to agree with the mock drafters.  Rios showed signs of growth as a batter, hitting more line drives (21.8% of all balls hit into play) and making more contact (86.9% of all swings) in 2012 than ever before in his career.  Those numbers allow Rios to take full advantage of his ballpark, whereas Pence will be hard-pressed to regain his stroke in San Francisco.  Since Barry Bonds left after the 2007 campaign, no Giants hitter has hit more than 26 homers in a season and only six Giants overall have reached the 20-homer plateau.  Pence has solid power but isn't a big slugger --- it's easy to imagine him failing to hit even 15 long balls in 2013.

I don't mind Rios as a second outfield choice and I like him a lot as the third outfielder, though most fantasy owners don't have their starting OF set by the eighth or ninth round.  While Rios certainly has his question marks, I wouldn't be worried if he fell on my roster on draft day.  I'd hesitate to take Pence altogether, and if I did end up drafting him through clenched teeth, he's the kind of player I would try to unload for an upgrade before Opening Day.  Unless Pence shows up at my front door and delivers a phenomenal speech to change my mind, Rios is the better option of the two.

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Draft Round Battles: Jason Heyward Vs. Adam Jones

Taking a page from the Columbo book of storytelling, I'm going to remove the suspense early: I favor Jason Heyward ahead of Adam Jones in 2013 fantasy drafts.  My usual strategy is to take a more established player over a promising but semi-unproven one but in Heyward and Jones, I feel better taking Heyward's upside ahead of Jones' solid but not quite elite game.

It's a bit of a bold statement on my part since Jones projects as a stable bottom-of-the-second-round choice in most fantasy drafts.  The Orioles center fielder was an all-around fine fantasy performer in 2012, delivering career highs in homers (32), runs (103), batting average (.287), slugging (.505), steals (16) and he even threw in 82 RBIs to boot.

A lot of nice numbers, indeed, but there was one career-best that Jones couldn't top.  His .334 OBP in 2012 fell short of the .335 OBP he posted in 2009.  I don't care that he fell short of the mark; I care that in five seasons as a Major League regular, Jones hasn't been able to do better than a .335 OBP.  Walks have always been an issue for Jones and his career 0.25 BB/K rate may be the only thing holding him back from being a truly elite outfielder. 

It's almost a Moneyball cliche at this point but I always hesitate before drafting a hitter who doesn't have a solid OBP.  Heyward, to be fair, also had a .335 OBP in 2012 and only a .319 OBP during his 2011 season, a year marred by nagging injuries and perhaps just an old-fashioned sophomore slump.   What did catch my eye, however, was Heyward's .393 OBP over 623 PA in his 2010 rookie season, which was part of an .849 OPS that happened to top any of Jones' seasons.  Heyward only did it once, but a .393 OBP at any age is very impressive, and doing it in your age-20 season was off the charts. 

Fans and pundits had high expectations of Heyward in his rookie year and he delivered, though his mediocre 2011 and a Jones-esque 2012 have served to lower expectations slightly...if you call being the 32nd player taken overall in Mock Draft Central's latest average draft position rankings as "lowered expectations."  Still, there's just a bit of post-hype malaise surrounding Heyward, as is the fickle nature of fantasy owners towards any heavily-touted rookie that doesn't immediately start rattling off the Cooperstown-caliber seasons.

I referred to Heyward's 2012 year as Jones-esque because...

Jones: 697 PA, 32 HR, 82 RBI, 103 runs, .287/.334/.505, 16 steals,, 125 OPS+, .361 wOBA, 126 wRC+

Heyward: 651 PA, 27 HR, 82 RBI, 93 runs, .269/.335/.479, 21 steals, 117 OPS+, .351 wOBA, 120 wRC+

Jones had the better season but the gap was closer than you might have thought.  Heyward's rebound from his tough 2011 campaign somewhat flew under the radar, while Jones leading the Cinderella Orioles back to relevance understandably drew a lot more attention.

Now, I will freely admit that the "post-hype malaise" I mentioned earlier could also easily apply to Jones as well.  He was a former first-round sandwich pick in the 2003 draft and ranked 28th on Baseball America's list of the game's 100 best prospects heading into the 2007 season.  Jones, though, is only breaking out now, at age 27.  It's possible this is his ceiling, or it's also possible that he's already hit his ceiling and he'll perform closer to his pre-2012 norm (a 101 OPS+) in 2013.

What it all boils down to is that I just think we've yet to see the best of Heyward, whereas I think Jones may have already peaked.  If the two players produce the same offensive numbers in 2013, I really believe that would represent a worst-case scenario for Heyward.  It's easy to see him exploding for a .900 OPS or better, whereas I'm not sure what more Jones can do to improve unless he suddenly gains a lot more plate discipline.  They may have a 10+ point gap in ADP now, but I see Jones and Heyward both still sitting on a lot of draft boards by many a third round, and if you're faced with a choice between the two, go with the younger option in this case. 

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Go Bold or Go Home: Go Old in the Outfield

"Be afraid of the old, they'll inherit your souls." --Regina Spektor, Apres Moi

Fear drives so many human decisions, fantasy baseball and otherwise, and drafting outfielders is no exception. Every player carries a certain amount of risk, few moreso than the youngest and oldest players. A rookie might not pan out; a veteran might finally slip past the even horizon of age and see his production crumble into dust. Not every player can be in his prime, and those players get distributed pretty close to evenly. Leagues are won and lost on risky choices.

Fantasy managers aren't exactly out to simply mitigate risk, though--the timid win few championships, after all. That's probably why we see players like Bryce Harper and Justin Upton going in the second round: age is on their side and the real risks they represent can be glossed over in the sensible hope that they'll follow predictable growth curves and improve or rebound, as the case may be. There's another phenomenon at work though, and that's the desire in all of us to show off what we know, to be the first one to call out that prospect's name, to stake our league-wide reputation on the Brett Lawries and the Eric Hosmers of the world and say forevermore, "I had him when...."

Personally, I still remember calling out Tim Lincecum's name in 2007, to a chorus of "Who? How do you spell that?" It's a good memory, but it's not one I'm looking to repeat. I got pretty lucky, and I spent a couple months playing a man down.

If fantasy managers were totally rational actors, maybe this sort of thing wouldn't happen. Maybe the risks of exciting new prospects and (proverbially) fair-haired twenty-somethings would be weighted properly against the hoary, graying veterans we've known for years. In short--there's value missing, and several older (not even that old!) outfielders have ADP's well below where they probably should.

Matt Holliday ADP: 56.96 (4th round), 19th OF

Holliday started out cold, but turned around quickly with a blistering May-July. He faded again down the stretch, and had what amounts to half a great season, and half a fairly disappointing one. The results still gave us 27 HRs, a .295 average, 95 Runs, and 102 RBI's--good for 5.1 WAR, if that's how you roll. He's only 33, so he's not exactly Jamie Moyer, and the wheels don't exactly seem to be falling off. He was a second or third rounder last year, and I don't see why he should be relegated to the end of the 4th round. He had a better season than plenty of outfielders ahead of him on the draft boards--grab him over Yoenis Cespedes, Melky Cabrera, Jay Bruce, B.J. Upton, Harper, Upton (yeah, him too), Jason Heyward, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Josh Hamilton. Or, at least think about it, because his performance puts him right with the best of those guys.

Carlos Beltran ADP 110.17 (9th round), 31st OF

There's a big jump between Holliday and Beltran, and it's one I understand to a certain extent. Beltran's never been the healthiest of guys, even at his best. He isn't the speed demon he once was, either, but he can still hit. Last year was his healthiest in a long time and anyone who drafted him loved his 32 HRs. His overall numbers are buoyed by his torrid May, and he faded pretty hard in July and August, batting near the Mendoza Line, so I'm not recommending you draft the 36-year-old as your first OF. But he's going after most teams have their third OF, and his upside is still worth more than that. Consider drafting him over PED-implicated Nelson Cruz, BABIP superstar Torii Hunter, mercurial Alex Rios, and probably Austin Jackson and Mark Trumbo too. That puts him somewhere more like the 6th or 7th round, which seems a little more fair.

 Nick Swisher ADP 130.27 (10th round), 40th OF

Swisher is getting almost-old, though he won't turn 33 until after the season, and it seems like he's been around forever. Except for a terrible batting average in 2008, he's been a seriously consistent producer of around 25 HRs with a decent-ish average and the runs and RBI's that go with that sort of player. He's the opposite of a risky pick, though the move to Cleveland won't do wonders to those team-dependent stats. For me, Swisher represents the ideal third OF on my team--he doesn't hurt me anywhere and he hits a few homers. Consider drafting him a little higher, ahead of Ben Revere, Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, Martin Prado, Alejandro De Aza, Norichika Aoki, and Mike Morse. So, basically where Beltran is getting drafted now--a round early but ahead of several outfielders.

 Alfonso Soriano ADP 186.46 (15th round), 48th OF

Poor Soriano has had the misfortune of signing a huge contract that has weighed his Cubbies down like a nine-figure anchor for as long as anyone can remember. Not only that, his days of challenging the 40/40 club are long past and basically, everyone hates him now. At least money buys happiness. By the way, your draft pick can buy a player who hasn't exactly been consistent for the past few years, but he has had his uses. His 32 HRs of 2012 probably won't return (but we didn't think they'd show up in the first place), but something near 25 seems likely. He won't be helping your average, and his teammates probably won't be scoring constantly, but he's a respect-worthy power hitter being drafted really low. In fact, as the 48th OF, he's the last 4th OF to go--a bench player in some leagues. If your OF goes to five, though, than you can appreciate Sori's value. Grab him if you need some extra power over Aoki, Morse, De Aza, and Revere.

Ichiro Suzuki  ADP 201.26 (16th round), 57th OF

Ichiro isn't one of the game's top outfielders, that much is certain. In fact, he looked all but dead in the water until an apparently-revitalizing trade to the Yankees last summer. I'm not going to bore you with splits you can look up on your own, but he was a lot better. Enough to give us good reason to think he's got something left in that tank. With a low pick, he's a lot more reward than risk, since outfielders who steal bases and don't hurt your average don't grow on trees. You can't count on him to carry you in those categories anymore, but then, you don't have to make him your top OF anymore either. Take him over fellow speedsters Brett Gardner, Juan Pierre, Carlos Gomez,  Revere, and the unproven Starling Marte.

Cody Ross ADP 261.60 (21st round), 77th OF

The D-backs traded away an early second-r0under to make room for Cody Ross, and while that might make them sound crazy, it also makes Ross sound pretty good. He missed some time with injury, but ultimately put together a pretty useful season for Boston. Now, he'll be moving to the weaker league, to another hitters' park, and to a team that went way out of their way to acquire him. To me, this sounds like a great situation. I'd draft him where Ichiro and Soriano are getting drafted, and I'd expect to get the value side of the deal. Take him over Lucas Duda, Delmon Young, Chris Young, Denard Span, Logan Morrison, Tyler Colvin, Michael Brantley, Michael Saunders and plenty of other guys.

With the exception of Ichiro, these aging outfielders are all power hitters, most from the mistily remembered days of the early 2000's. Power was the game then, so it's no wonder that these guys still bring the homers, even though their best seasons are behind them. Go grab some young players if you want, but these six make a pretty good and very affordable outfield all by themselves.

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Three September Call-Ups To Watch For

The calendar turns over to September this Saturday, meaning clubs will expand their rosters and call-up extra players for the stretch run. Most September call-ups are spare parts - third catchers, extra left-handed relievers, etc. - but every so often a team will bring a top prospect to the big leagues and give him a month's worth of playing time. David Price and Francisco Rodriguez are the two most notable September call-ups in recent memory, as both went on to become key components of a deep playoff run. Impact like that is the exception though, not the rule. Here are three high-end prospects who could make their way to the big leagues next month and actually have some fantasy value...

Jurickson Profar | SS | Texas Rangers

The 19-year-old wunderkind from Curacao has emerged as baseball's top prospect this summer. Profar has hit .280/.367/.452 with 14 homers and 16 steals in Double-A this season, which is insane production given his age relative to the competition. It's worth noting that he's played some games at second base lately and in each of the last two games, he was used off the bench as a pinch-hitter. It's very possible the Rangers are preparing him for a call-up, though Jeff Wilson of The Fort Worth Star-Telegram says it may not happen until the end of the Double-A postseason.

Fantasy owners should keep the plight of Mike Olt in mind when considering Profar's fantasy impact. Texas called up their other elite prospect in early-August and he's gotten just 32 plate appearances so far, including only six starts in 26 team games. Perhaps things will be different later in September after the Rangers clinch a playoff berth, but I would be skeptical right now. Profar is a definite keeper long-term, but his 2012 impact may be severely limited.

Wil Myers | OF | Kansas City Royals

After starring at the Futures Game in Kansas City and for most of the season in Triple-A, the 21-year-old Myers may finally get a chance to crack the outfield in Kauffman Stadium next month. He's hit a whopping .307/.384/.589 with 35 homers in 568 total plate appearances, pretty much confirming that he's ready for the next level. Calling up Myers could require the team to either finally bench Jeff Francoeur or sit Lorenzo Cain, the latter of whom might actually have a future with the team. If he does get the call and does play everyday in some outfield position, Myers could be a nice little late-season boost for fantasy owners, potentially chipping in something like 5-6 homers the rest of the way. That's nothing to sneeze at.

Shelby Miller | SP | St. Louis Cardinals

Earlier this week Joe Strauss of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported (on Twitter) that there is a "strong sentiment" within the organization to promote Miller, the 21-year-old flamethrower who's pitched to a 4.89 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 130 2/3 Triple-A innings this year. Those numbers aren't all that impressive overall, but the right-hander has a 57/4 K/BB in his last eight starts and seems to have figured some things out.

If the Cardinals do recall Miller next month, they'll have the option to use him out of the bullpen or instead of Joe Kelly in the rotation. I wouldn't count on him replacing Jason Motte as closer, so he would have the most fantasy value as a starter. The September schedule is loaded with intra-division games as always, meaning a whole lotta games against the lowly Astros and Cubs. St. Louis also has a West Coast swing through San Diego and Los Angeles on their slate, adding two top pitcher's parks into the mix. Miller definitely offers some impact potential going forward, assuming the club actually decides to call him up and insert him into the rotation down the stretch.

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Cubs Turn The Reigns Over To Jackson & Vitters

The Chicago Cubs started a new era in franchise history when the Theo Epstein-led regime took over this past offseason, and they've systematically started a rebuilding process by trading veterans and acquiring young talent. Players like Sean Marshall, Carlos Zambrano, and Ryan Dempster were traded for prospects and/or salary relief in recent months, and youngsters like Anthony Rizzo and Darwin Barney were eased into the starting lineup. Following the trade deadline, the Cubs recalled two of their highest profile prospects and have handed them regular playing time. Let's look at their fantasy value.

Brett Jackson | OF

Jackson, 24, was the 31st overall pick in the 2009 draft and steadily climbed the minor league ladder before making his debut. He's only hit .188/.257/.281 in 35 big league plate appearances so far, but he's a .282/.379/.488 career hitter in the minors with 10+ homers and 20+ steals in each of the last three seasons. Jackson also provides a lot of value with his center field defense, but that's irrelevant in fantasy.

The biggest problem with the outfielder is, by far, his knack for the swing and miss. Jackson has whiffed on 24 of the 159 pitches he's seen in the big leagues, a tidy 15.1%. The league average is slightly more than half that at 9.0%. He's struck out 18 times with the Cubs already, and in the minor leagues more than one-quarter (26.4%, to be exact) of his plate appearances ended with strike three. That's astromical for a top prospect and a massive hole in his game that could be his ultimate downfall. Jackson will get a chance to play for the rest of the season, but outside of a handful of steals and maybe a few homers, his fantasy value is nil until he can put the ball in play consistently.

Josh Vitters | 3B

The third overall pick in the 2007 draft, the 22-year-old Vitters took a little longer to get to the show than first overall pick David Price and second overall pick Mike Moustakas. The third baseman has produced just a .103/.100/.138 batting line in 30 plate appearances since being recalled, though he put together a .304/.356/.513 performance in Triple-A earlier this year. He's a .283/.327/.455 career hitter in over 2,100 minor league plate appearances.

While Jackson is prone to swings and misses, Vitters is the polar opposite. His problem is that he makes contact a little too easily, and often puts pitches in play that he shouldn't be swinging at in the first place. The ability to get the bat on the ball is why he was drafted so high, but the lack of plate discipline has kept Vitters from realizing his full potential during his climb up the minor league ladder. That doesn't mean things won't click in the future, but for 2012 we have another guy with little to no fantasy value. The Cubs are headed in the right direction and have done a smart thing by giving Jackson and Vitters an extended look at the end of the season, but unfortunately neither player is worth a fantasy roster spot at this point of their careers.

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Squeezing Steals Out Of Anthony Gose

Injuries have defined the Blue Jays' season so far, with the pitching staff feeling the brunt of the impact. The injury bug leaked over to the position player side of things on Monday night, when Jose Bautista came up holding his left wrist after pulling a ball foul down the line in a game against the Yankees. He left the game and x-rays were negative, but an MRI revealed what is either inflammation or a strain depending on who you ask. It's probably a little of both, the two can be related. Either way, Bautista has been placed on the DL and will miss at least two weeks.

To take his spot, Toronto recalled top outfield prospect Anthony Gose from Triple-A. He was hitting .292/.375/.432 with 18 doubles, ten triples, five homers, and 29 steals in 436 plate appearances for Las Vegas at the time of the recall. The left-handed hitting Gose sat on Tuesday night - understandable against CC Sabathia -  before making his first start and going 0-for-3 with two strikeouts yesterday. He is expected to be the everyday right fielder during Bautista's absence with the occasional game on the bench against tough lefties.

The 21-year-old Gose is well traveled already, going from the Phillies to the Astros in the Roy Oswalt trade before being flipped to the Jays for Brett Wallace. ESPN's Keith Law ranked him as the 59th best prospect in baseball before the season, noting that Gose now "stays back better and repeats his swing in a way he couldn't before, resulting in higher-quality contact and the chance for average power." His outfield defense - he's a true center fielder playing right in deference to the incumbent Colby Rasmus - is excellent and enough to keep him in the lineup even when he's struggling at the plate, and playing time is always a concern for fantasy rookies.

Triple-A Las Vegas is one of the most extreme hitters' environments in baseball, inflating offense by almost ten percent according to the park factors at StatCorner. It would be easy to write off Gose as a product of that ballpark if he had a huge home/road split, but this year it was actually a reserve split. He hit .259/.351/.395 in 46 home games compared to .313/.397/.469 in 46 road games before the call-up. Besides, we're not looking at Gose as someone who can come up and mash, adding homers and RBI to our counting stats. He's a steals candidate.

Gose has swiped at least 45 bases in each of the last three seasons - including two 70+ steal seasons - and is likely to get there again this year. He's efficient (74% success rate) but not insanely successful in his stolen base attempts, so keep that in mind if you use net steals. Bautista isn't expected to miss too much time but Gose could still force his way into the regular lineup with an assist from Rajai Davis' recent slump. If he proves useful over the next two weeks, the at-bats will be there for him in left field. You might take a hit in batting average and almost certainly will get no help in the power or run production departments, but steals can be hard to come by this late in the season and few players offer as much stolen base potential as the guy Toronto just called up.

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