Oakland Athletics

Position Battles: Athletics Fifth Starter

The A's have been aggressive this offseason, adding David DeJesus, Josh Willingham, and Hideki Matsui to their lineup and Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour to their bullpen. Two additions that may have gone overshadowed are the signings of Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy, a pair of talented but injury-prone pitchers who will battle it out for the last rotation spot along with a few others. An archive of over 50 position battles that I have identified are accessible over at MLBDepthCharts.com.  

Brandon McCarthy vs Rich Harden vs Bobby Cramer vs Tyson Ross vs Josh Outman

Tale of the Tape

McCarthy: 27 years old, $1MM salary 2010 stats: 4-2, 3.36 ERA, 56.1 IP, 51 H, 11 BB, 44 K in 11 games (AAA) 2011 Outlook: Favorite, along with Harden, to be #5 starter

Named the 49th best prospect in the minors by Baseball America prior to the 2005 season, McCarthy debuted later that season as a 21-year-old for the White Sox and posted a 4.17 ERA in 10 starts. After spending the 2006 season in the White Sox bullpen, he was traded to Texas, where he spent the past four seasons. His time with the Rangers was disappointing as he made just 44 big league starts in between elbow and shoulder injuries. While he didn't make it back to the majors in 2010, he showed enough in nine starts and two relief appearances for Triple-A Oklahoma City that six other teams were reportedly interested in his services. The A's thought enough of him to offer a big league deal worth a guaranteed $1MM with another $1.6MM in incentives. 

Harden: 29 years old, $1.5MM salary 2010 stats: 5-5, 5.58 ERA, 92 IP, 91 H, 62 BB, 75 K in 20 games (18 starts) 2011 Outlook: Favorite, along with McCarthy, to be #5 starter

Like McCarthy, Harden made his big league debut at age 21 and stayed healthy throughout his second season, making 31 starts and tossing 189.1 IP for the A's in 2004. While his first stint with Oakland can be considered a success based on his overall numbers (36-19, 3.43 ERA from 2003-2008), he made just 32 starts in three injury-plagued seasons from 2005-07 and was eventually traded to the Cubs in July 2008. In 38 starts over 1 1/2 seasons with Chicago, Harden was 14-10 with a 3.31 ERA, earning him a $6.5MM deal with the Rangers in 2010. Things did not go well in Texas, however, as Harden missed time with a gluteal strain and put up mediocre numbers for the first time in his career. He was removed from the rotation in September and left off the postseason roster. The A's are hoping a return to Oakland will revitalize his career, although a return to the rotation is no sure thing. He will prepare to be a starter in Spring Training but is open to pitching out of the bullpen, where he could benefit from a lesser workload.   

Cramer: 31 years old, $425K salary 2010 stats: 2-1, 3.04 ERA, 23.2 IP, 20 H, 6 BB, 13 K in 4 starts 2011 Outlook: Underdog, More likely to provide Triple-A depth

The left-hander made quite a journey in 2010, making his big league debut shortly after finishing up an impressive stint with Quintana Roo of the Mexican League, where he was on loan from the A's. He was returned to the organization in August, posting a 1.94 ERA in seven Triple-A starts before getting the big league call in September. Cramer is unlikely to beat out Harden or McCarthy for the final rotation spot but he'll likely be first in line should the team need an extra starter at any point during the season. 

Ross: 23 years old, $425K salary 2010 stats: 1-4, 5.49 ERA, 39.1 IP, 39 H, 20 BB, 32 K in 26 games (2 starts) 2011 Outlook: Underdog, More likely to start season in Triple-A rotation

The prospect rankings have been released and Ross is the organization's top pitching prospect, according to Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. The right-hander was actually on the team's Opening Day roster last season, making the jump from Double-A to the big league bullpen. After a three month stint with the team, he was optioned to Triple-A so he could continue his development as a starter. Ross was shut down after just six starts, however, because of a sprained elbow ligament. He'll be in big league camp again this year hoping to make the team as a starter this time around. With the big league rotation in good shape and plenty of solid candidates for the final spot, it is more likely that Ross heads back to Triple-A where he can gain some valuable experience before returning to Oakland. 

Outman: 26 years old, $425K salary 2009 stats: 4-1, 3.48 ERA, 67.1 IP, 53 H, 25 BB, 53 K in 14 games (12 starts) 2011 Outlook: Dark-horse candidate, More likely to start season in Triple-A rotation

Well on his way to establishing himself as a very good big league starting pitcher during the 2009 season, Outman was shut down with an elbow injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery. Now he'll need to re-establish himself during Spring Training, having not pitched in a game since June 2009. In all likelihood, the A's aren't going to throw him right back into the big leagues but a good month or two in the minors will put him back on the team's radar. 

Final Word

Harden and McCarthy are injury risks but the A's are counting on at least one of these guys staying healthy and solidifying the back of the rotation. If both manage to stay away from injury, I think McCarthy gets the spot in the rotation with Harden getting a shot out of the 'pen. Depth is important, especially for a team that used 10 different starting pitchers last year, so having Cramer, Ross, and Outman as options could end up being a big part of the team's success. 

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Monitor Javier Vazquez, Ben Sheets

I actually thought I got a mild steal when I drafted Javier Vazquez in the middle of the 9th round in the RotoAuthority League, right after Brett Anderson and Chad Billingsley went off the board.  Obviously I was wrong, as Vazquez has been all sorts of terrible through five starts for the Yankees.  Walks, hits, and home runs are way up; velocity is down 2.2 mph.  You can blame New York, but I'm not in Javy's head.  You can blame the AL East, but he's only faced one good offense.  I tend to lean toward early-season rust, mechanical issues, a potential injury, and a dash of Javy being Javy.  I'm not cutting him, but it is time to bench Vazquez.  He's being dropped in many leagues, and should be a person of interest for you.  He won't be the 3.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 15 win, 193 K guy I expected/wanted in March, but 75% of that would be well worth rostering.

Ben Sheets was an 18th round pick, so it's been easier for his owners to cut him loose after six starts.  His numbers are a total mess - uncharacteristic walks, no strikeouts, lots of home runs and hits.  His fastball is down 1.5 mph from his last season, 2008.  If anyone is allowed to be rusty, it's Sheets after missing all of '09.  Sheets recently told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle his problem is about location.  I'm curious to see if he rights the ship.  We could see the added bonus of Sheets being shipped to an NL contender if the A's fall out of contention in a few months.

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Josh Outman Examined

Let's talk about Josh Outman, who ranks 7th in the AL with a 3.06 ERA (using 40 IP to qualify).  Outman's 1.19 WHIP ranks 14th.   Is he for real, or at least worth picking up?  More stats...

47 IP
8 GS
5.63 IP/start
3.06 ERA
4.72 xFIP
1.19 WHIP
1.44 Expected WHIP
7.66 K/9
4.02 BB/9
1.90 K/BB
6.70 H/9
.227 BABIP vs. .316 team BABIP
1.15 HR/9
11.8% HR/flyball rate
35.3% Groundball rate
2 wins
2.6 Expected Wins

Basically we are looking at a guy who's pitched more like a 4.72 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP.  It'd be pretty risky to expect otherwise.  Outman still needs to take a big step forward in control, and as a flyball pitcher he'll continue to allow HRs.  His super-low BABIP is unsustainable.

Scouting-wise, Outman is a 24 year-old southpaw who came to Oakland in last year's Joe Blanton trade.  He has only two Triple A starts under his belt.  Some like him as a reliever, as his fastball plays up to the mid-90s.  Baseball America notes decent secondary pitches and a deceptive delivery.  Who knows, maybe the delivery explains some of the BABIP.

I would not add Outman in a 12-team mixed league.  It seems that he is getting by mainly on not allowing hits and that is not a reliable formula for success.

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Oakland Closer Situation

Nathan P. asks:

Has Oakland settled on a closer yet? I've got both Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler, but I only want to keep one of them. Please tell me they aren't going to share save opportunities.

Devine and Ziegler were originally penciled in to share closing duties.  However, Devine will be examined by Dr. James Andrews Wednesday or Thursday.  His sore elbow will keep him out at least three weeks.

MLB.com's Mychael Urban learned from A's manager Bob Geren that Santiago Casilla and Russ Springer could also see save opportunities.  But for now, Ziegler is the man.  If you own Devine, you might as well wait until the diagnosis before deciding what to do with him.

Ziegler is being drafted in the 18th round currently, so he'd be a nice bargain if other relievers don't chip away at his saves.  I have him down for a 3.58 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with a 5.2 K/9.

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Trevor Cahill Examined

Today let's take a look at A's starting pitching prospect Trevor Cahill, who's become a popular late-round sleeper even in non-keeper mixed leagues.

Cahill, a 21 year-old righty, tossed 87.3 innings last year at High A and 37 at Double A.  He was unhittable and prevented home runs well in both stints.  The move to Double A saw his strikeout rate dip below a batter per inning and his walk rate rise to one free pass every other inning.

Projections:

System	ERA	WHIP	K9	BB9	HR9	H9
PECOTA	4.70	1.53	6.61	5.34	0.63	8.44
ZiPS	4.54	1.55	4.86	4.86	0.81	9.08
CHONE	4.82	1.58	6.64	5.46	1.18	8.79

Survey says: not a good mixed league pick due to poor control.  Cahill will probably still be tough to hit and keep the ball in the park with lots of grounders.  But even his 90th percentile PECOTA calls for 4.44 BB/9.  A reason for optimism: Cahill has walked just 3 in 16 innings this spring (1.69 BB/9).  Also his top comp at BP, Yovani Gallardo, reduced his walk rate upon arriving in the Majors.

Scouting-wise, here's how Cahill ranked on top prospects lists: Baseball America - 11th, Kevin Goldstein - 23rd, Keith Law - 24th. 

Law says Cahill's two-seam fastball is "toxic" with "ridiculous sink."  BA says the pitch has "outstanding heavy sink and late life."  Reviews on his spike curveball range (but all three sources like it), with Goldstein calling it plus-plus.  The consensus is that Cahill profiles as a #1 or #2 and is very close to big league ready.

It's easy for me to just keep recommending these top prospects.  So I'll continue to do so!  Cahill will probably break camp with the team, so what's the harm in drafting him?  If the control is a problem then wait til next year.  If not, you have a Rookie of the Year candidate.  And he could always fluke into a decent WHIP, posting an abnormally low H/9 since no one in the AL has seen him yet.

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Greg Smith Fifth In AL ERA Race

I could've never predicted the current AL ERA leaderboard:

1. Cliff Lee - 0.96
2. Zack Greinke - 1.47
3. Ervin Santana - 2.02
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka - 2.43
5. Greg Smith - 2.54

Today, let's take a look at 24 year-old Oakland southpaw Greg Smith.

Heading into the season, Baseball America projected Smith as a back-of-the-rotation starter.  He's more about polish and smarts, using command of his four pitches to retire hitters.

Here are his numbers so far:

6 starts
39 IP
6.5 IP/start
2.54 ERA
1.03 WHIP
7.15 K/9
3.00 BB/9
2.38 K/BB
0.92 HR/9
11.5% HR/flyball
6.23 H/9
.228 BABIP
37.5% groundball rate

As a team, the A's have a low .279 BABIP.  Adjusting Smith's BABIP more toward his team's, I get something near a 3.80 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  So, what we're seeing is not a complete fluke if the strikeout and walk rates are legit.  I expect the K rate to come down a bit, closer to 6.0.  Only thing that scares me about Smith is his 10.5 hits per nine in 52 Triple A innings last year.  If a hit explosion of that nature occurs, his ERA might just be a hair under 5.00 moving forward.

Even adjusting for BABIP Smith has been tough to hit this year.  He will need to continue allowing fewer than a hit per inning if he is to keep his ERA under 4.00.  36 starters did that last year, including lefties with less than amazing repertoires like Wandy Rodriguez, Barry Zito, Ted Lilly, and Rich Hill.  I can't definitively say Smith will fall into this group but he's a fine pickup in the short term.  Note that Zito, Lilly, and Hill have all struggled in '08 with prolonged league exposure.  The same fate is likely for Smith since he is not a dominating type of pitcher.

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A Look At Dana Eveland

Oakland lefty Dana Eveland has allowed one run in 13.1 innings, along with 13 Ks.  It's about time we took a look.

Eveland, 24, came to the A's in the Dan Haren deal.  Before that he went from Milwaukee to Arizona in the Doug Davis trade.  He was awful in 64.1 career big league innings coming into this season; poor control and a flukey high hit rate did him in.  He did have a K/9 over 8.1 though.  Decent groundball rate in this limited appearances, though he hasn't shown that in his two starts this year.

Let's check out the projections:

• Baseball HQ: 5.90 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 7.76 K/9
• CHONE: 4.45 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 7.20 K/9
• ZiPS: 4.50 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 6.41 K/9
• PECOTA: 4.75 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 5.86 K/9

So even the most optimistic projections show an AL-only type pitcher at best.  The consensus is that he doesn't have the control yet.  With just two starts, we can't tell if he's found it.  For what it's worth, he posted a very strong 2.14 BB/9 in 21 spring innings.  With a control breakout it seems that Eveland falls short of a mixed league-worthy pitcher.

Scouting-wise, Baseball America profiled him in their '06 handbook.  They drew a David Wells comparison, noting a possible weight issue.  They had praise for his fastball command and his breaking stuff.  Back then he worked in the 88-90 mph range with the heater, not uncommon for a lefty.

Keep in mind that most hitters have never seen Eveland, and he's not any kind of dominant young stud.  You could add him in a mixed league, but it's risky because you won't be able to predict when hitters will start to catch up.  I'll start to consider Eveland "for real" if he has a BB/9 under 3.0 after ten starts.  Unfortunately by then he will probably be off the waiver wire.   

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Pick Up Dan Johnson

I see Dan Johnson is one of the most popular drops this week. All it takes is an 0 for 12, apparently.  He's still getting the vast majority of starts at first base, including most against southpaws. 

This is a player who can hit .300 with 25+ HR in 500+ ABs.  In other words, he's a lot like Chris Shelton.  Ken Macha is not going to give up on him after four starts, and neither should you.  I recommend pulling a Buy Low here.  Johnson can be a $15 mixed league player; he doesn't belong on the waiver wire.   

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