New York Yankees

Position/Role Battles: The Yankees' Fifth Starter

With Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda now added to the fold, the Yankees' starting rotation has gone from being a weakness to a potential strength.  The two newcomers, Ivan Nova and staff ace C.C. Sabathia account for the first four spots in the rotation, and now New York suddenly has a surplus of pitching depth for the fifth spot.

With a powerful lineup and Mariano Rivera closing, any Yankee starter can help your fantasy team in the wins category, if nothing else.  Here's a look at the possibilities for the back end of the Yankees' rotation and how much value they could bring to your fantasy squad...

A.J. Burnett: The number most associated with Burnett is the $33MM he's still owed over the next two seasons, but let's look past the salary and at his advanced metrics.  Burnett posted a 5.15 ERA last season, but his xFIP was over a run lower at 3.86.  His other peripherals from 2011 (a 2.08 K/BB ratio, 8.2 K/9, 3.9 BB/9) are almost identical to his career averages in those categories, with the only major discrepancy being his 1.5 HR/9, well above his 0.9 H/9 career rate.  You would presume this was caused by pitching at Yankee Stadium, but Burnett has pitched significantly better at home than he had on the road over the last three seasons.

These stats should ease fears of both Yankee fans and fantasy owners that Burnett has totally fallen off a cliff, which is good since his paycheck makes him the most likely candidate to be the fifth starter.  You basically know what you're going to get with Burnett at this point --- strikeouts, double-digit wins and frustration.  If you draft Burnett at all, make sure he's no higher than the #5 man on your staff as well, and pay heed to his home/away splits by sitting him when he's starting outside of the Bronx.

Freddy Garcia: Signed to a minor-league deal last February, Garcia was a very nice bargain for the Yankees, delivering a 2.2 WAR performance for just $1.5MM.  The veteran re-signed with the Bombers for a one-year, $4MM contract in December and for that kind of money, Garcia no doubt expects to do more than just serve as a long reliever and spot starter. 

Garcia played with fire last year, doing a decent job of keeping the ball in the park (0.98 HR/9) despite a ground ball rate of just 36.4%, but overall he was a much more consistent performer than Burnett.  The Yankees now have the depth to keep Burnett on a short leash and if he struggles again, the club would have no problem slotting Garcia into the rotation and relegating Burnett to the pen.  There's no reason to think Garcia won't be solid in whatever role he fills, but given his middling peripherals, there isn't much to recommend Garcia for a roster spot on a mixed league fantasy team.

Phil Hughes: At this time last year, Hughes was coming off an All-Star season and looked to be on his way to becoming a fixture in New York's rotation.  After three brutal starts to begin the year, however, Hughes went to the disabled list with the dreaded "dead arm" and didn't return until July.  The right-hander posted a 4.48 ERA in 14 games after his return, getting roughed up in three starts, but allowing two or fewer runs in each of his other eight starts.  

Hughes needs a big spring to lay claim to the fifth starter's job, but if he's back to good health, he is a very intriguing under-the-radar fantasy option.  Hughes is still just 25 years old and showed tons of promise in 2010.  Even if he doesn't win the starter's job and is relegated to the bullpen, Hughes is still a good fantasy pickup because of his potential value out of the bullpen.  Hughes was a monster as Rivera's set-up man in 2009 and, while David Robertson and Rafael Soriano are ahead of Hughes on the bullpen depth start now, Hughes is a great choice if your league tracks holds.

Nova: Burnett, Garcia and Hughes could really be fighting for two rotation spots, should Nova have a tough Spring Training or regress once the season begins.  Nova doesn't record many strikeouts (a career 5.4 K/9), which doesn't mesh well with his 3.2 BB/9 career walk rate, though Joba Chamberlain was the only Yankee regular who recorded a higher ground ball rate than Nova's 52.7% mark.  There are more signs pointing to a regression than a breakout campaign for Nova, and since he provides little fantasy value in the strikeout and WHIP categories, I'd be hesitant to draft him as anything but final-round rotation depth.   On the other hand, Nova's strikeout rate did improve after a brief Triple-A stint in July, so if he can continue to develop his slider, Nova is worth a closer look.

Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos: With the Yankees now having several starting options available, it's unlikely that either of New York's two top starting prospects will get anything more than a token September start or two.  (Betances already received such a promotion last year, pitching his first two Major League games.)  Don't expect to hear much of either hurler at the MLB level in 2012....well, except at the trade deadline, when they'll be mentioned as trade bait for every superstar player in the game, but it's extremely doubtful the Yanks would part with such promising young arms.

Fantasy outlook: Burnett is the pitcher most likely to be in New York's rotation, but Hughes has the most fantasy upside due to his sleeper potential and value as a holds guy.  Garcia and Nova both have limited fantasy potential while Burnett can be relied upon to deliver his usual season.

The other factor in gauging the Yankee rotation is if Burnett or Garcia will still be on the roster by midseason.  It's safe to say the Yankees would love to get Burnett's salary off the books, but any trade involving the right-hander would involve New York eating the vast majority of his salary.  At that cost, the Yankees might just figure if they're going to pay Burnett anyway, he might as well be pitching for them out of the bullpen.  A change of scenery could work wonders for Burnett and he could conceivably gain sleeper potential if moved to the right situation in the National League.  It's unlikely the Yankees will be able to find a trade partner but if Burnett is dealt to the NL, he'd be worth a roster spot on your fantasy side.

Should Garcia replicate his 2011 performance through the first few months of this season, he could be an attractive trade candidate given his relatively low salary and ability to eat innings.  If the rest of the rotation avoids injury and Burnett/Hughes perform well as the fifth starter and spot man (in whatever order), Garcia could be deemed expendable.  I'm not sure a trade would significantly boost Garcia's fantasy value unless he's dealt to Petco Park, Dodger Stadium or another pitcher-friendly stadium. 

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Transaction Analysis: Kuroda, Pineda, Montero

In a matter of a couple hours on Friday night, the Yankees pulled off two moves -- teaming up with the Mariners on one -- that have given fantasy owners a lot to consider. When the dust settled, no fewer than three potentially high-impact players changed teams, and there was a fourth on the move who could sneak into consideration in deep AL-onlies or super-deep mixers.

Let's have a look a look at what went down and what it could mean ...

The Yankees agree to terms with Hiroki Kuroda

With a profile that includes strikeout ability, solid control, above-average groundball rates and relative durability, Kuroda has been a salt-of-the-earth commodity in the fake game in his four Major League seasons, all of which were spent with the Dodgers. You probably wouldn't have won many leagues with the Japanese right-hander as your No. 1 starter, but he's been an ideal No. 3 or 4.

Now, things are about to get tougher for Kuroda. He's leaving pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium for a home ballpark in the Bronx that favors hitters. He's also staring at his age-37 season and is leaving behind the navigable NL West for baseball's toughest division. Factor in that his draft-day price -- current ADP of 170, per Mock Draft Central -- will likely be inflated in the coming weeks by his new pinstriped uniform, and we seemingly have a formula for a guy who is a good pitcher but could land on our overpriced list.

But owning a good starter who takes the ball every fifth day for the Yankees has one notable allure (in most leagues): that little stat we call "wins." The fact remains that, barring an unprecedented rash of injuries or the world's untimely demise in May, the Yankees are a virtual lock to win 90-plus games in 2012, and someone has to be the beneficiary of all those Ws.

For example, Phil Hughes and his 4.05 SIERA won 18 games in 2010, while Ivan Nova and his 4.29 SIERA won 16 games in 2011. Kuroda is better than both of those fellas. Of course, there's a lot of random chance factored into that equation. Fantasy pinada A.J. Burnett drew Lady Luck's short straw last season, winning only 11 games despite posting a 3.89 SIERA that was better than both Hughes' two years ago and Nova's last year.

The bottom line is, I'd let the plusses and minuses of this move offset each other with respect to Kuroda's fantasy value. He remains a No. 3 or 4 for me, and while the potential for an uptick in wins is enticing, there are factors at play that could just as easily point toward mild regression in his ratios and strikeouts.

The Yankees acquire Michael Pineda and Jose Campos from the Mariners in exchange for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi

Blockbuster alert! Two of the game's at- or near-the-Majors top young talents in Pineda and Montero are on the move.

On the heels of a brilliant rookie season in which his 3.36 SIERA was actually better than his sharp 3.74 ERA, Pineda, like Kuroda, is tasked with overcoming a more challenging home ballpark and schedule. And with more strikeouts than innings pitched in 2011, Pineda certainly has the higher upside of the Yankees' two new arms, although he also comes with some risk.

In his breakdown of the swap, ESPN analyst/scout Keith Law (sub req'd) cautions that Pineda, still something of an unpolished two-pitch pitcher at this juncture of his young career, may not be able to repeat 2011's surface stats, especially against lineups with tougher left-handed hitters. For what it's worth, Pineda posted a .237/.296/.357 line and a 2.96 K/BB ratio vs. lefties last season, so it's not his L/R splits that worry me. Instead, I'd keep an eye on the 36% groundball rate he posted last year, as some of those fly balls could come back to haunt him in 2012 if they bleed out of Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch.

Even if there's regression in the cards for Pineda, a guy who struck out more than a batter per inning and walked fewer than three per nine frames as a supposedly raw rookie is not one to be ignored. His current ADP is 97, which indicates to me there is still some skepticism among owners. If you're more of an aggressive type, I'm fine with grabbing Pineda as many as two or even three rounds earlier, because he has second- or third-round upside, but don't get too carried away.

In Montero, the Mariners get their much-needed and long-sought-after offensive stud, and in the Mariners getting Montero, fantasy owners get the opportunity to draft a touted hitter who may qualify at catcher but probably won't play there often, which is always advantageous.

You can't really find a bad word written about Montero's hitting, and it's been that way for some time. He has hit for average and power, and drawn enough walks, at every stop along the way in the Minors and in a brief Major League stint in 2011 to suggest he'll be productive. As a 20-year-old in his first trip through Triple-A, Montero hit .289/.353/.517 with 21 homers. Yup, nobody messes with The Jesus.

The move to a bad lineup and a ballpark markedly tough on righty hitters won't help his counting stats, but I like Montero right at the fringe of the top-10 catchers once he qualifies at the position. Just be sure that you know your league's rules about position eligibility, and monitor how the M's deploy Montero in Spring Training, before drafting him. We'll be watching that one closely.

Noesi is a high-probability but low-upside right-hander in the mold of Mike Leake based on his minor league peripherals, which could be a useful profile in Safeco Field. He'll be 25 later this month, so he's not someone you'd expect to have some marked improvement from his history as a control specialist in the minors. Noesi could be useful as a streaming candidate in standard mixers, especially at home against weaker offenses, so he's probably safe to pass on in drafts for those formats, but file away his name in very deep mixers or AL-onlies.

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Monitor Javier Vazquez, Ben Sheets

I actually thought I got a mild steal when I drafted Javier Vazquez in the middle of the 9th round in the RotoAuthority League, right after Brett Anderson and Chad Billingsley went off the board.  Obviously I was wrong, as Vazquez has been all sorts of terrible through five starts for the Yankees.  Walks, hits, and home runs are way up; velocity is down 2.2 mph.  You can blame New York, but I'm not in Javy's head.  You can blame the AL East, but he's only faced one good offense.  I tend to lean toward early-season rust, mechanical issues, a potential injury, and a dash of Javy being Javy.  I'm not cutting him, but it is time to bench Vazquez.  He's being dropped in many leagues, and should be a person of interest for you.  He won't be the 3.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 15 win, 193 K guy I expected/wanted in March, but 75% of that would be well worth rostering.

Ben Sheets was an 18th round pick, so it's been easier for his owners to cut him loose after six starts.  His numbers are a total mess - uncharacteristic walks, no strikeouts, lots of home runs and hits.  His fastball is down 1.5 mph from his last season, 2008.  If anyone is allowed to be rusty, it's Sheets after missing all of '09.  Sheets recently told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle his problem is about location.  I'm curious to see if he rights the ship.  We could see the added bonus of Sheets being shipped to an NL contender if the A's fall out of contention in a few months.

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Closer Report: Yankees

WEDNESDAY: Looks like Hughes is the favorite for the fifth starter job, making Joba the current choice as Rivera's backup.

TUESDAY: Yankees closer Mariano Rivera is being drafted at 72.11, the 7th round in a 12-team mixed league.  I typically don't take closers that early, but I wouldn't begrudge you for jumping on a legendary stopper projected for excellent ratios and 40 saves.

That said, Mo is 40, and at some point someone else will get a crack at closing for the Yankees.  If Rivera gets hurt, Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain might be candidates to step in (whoever is not in the rotation).  In 2009 Hughes posted a 1.40 ERA, 11.4 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9 in 51.3 relief innings.  He's going about 100 picks later than Chamberlain, too.

It was a lost season for lefty Damaso Marte, but he could also be in the mix to close games in Rivera's absence, depending on matchups.  Strikeout artist David Robertson could be the pen's dark horse if injuries to others run rampant.

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Alex Rodriguez May Miss Quarter Of Season

12:54pm: I am starting to think that the risk involved makes A-Rod a pretty bad late first/early second round pick.  ESPN's Stephania Bell suggests his recovery time could be longer than ten weeks depending on the details of the injury.  You have to have certainty with your first-round pick.

10:48am: Got a fantasy draft today?  You might want to hold off on that A-Rod pick - Rodriguez's brother told ESPN's Enrique Rojas he'll miss about 10 weeks due to hip surgery.  That'd put his return date around May 15th, so he'd miss a quarter of the season.

Now if we simply multiply A-Rod's projected stats by 3/4, his value goes from $32.04 (fifth overall) to $16.43 (41st among position players).  So if you got the $16.43 and nothing else you'd probably want to draft him around the 4th round.  And even then you'd be taking a risk that he does make it back by May 15th.

However, you would have A-Rod in the DL slot and would conceivably be able to get replacement level production from another third baseman.  For this example we'll use Mike Lowell (ironic, kind of).   Let's combine 139 ABs of Lowell with 417 of A-Rod.

This A-Rod/Lowell hybrid would be projected to hit .287-33-108-104-14 in 556 ABs.  Don't worry about Lowell and his own health issues specifically - use Melvin Mora or some other replacement-level 3B if you want.

Anyway, this hybrid player is worth $25.19, valued at 10th among position players and worthy of late first round consideration.

Problems with this approach: there is a negative value to clogging up a DL spot for a quarter of the year, and we don't know exactly when A-Rod will return or if he'll be 100% when he does.  But in my mind, a late first round/early second round pick of A-Rod is justified if he is indeed to return in mid-May.

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Girardi Wants 30 Starts For Joba

Yankees manager Joe Girardi wants 30 starts for Joba Chamberlain, and ESPN's Rob Neyer has already weighed in on how unlikely that is.

You may recall that our panel of experts predicted, on average, 143 innings for Joba in 2009.  That alone makes him the 18th best fantasy starter, without factoring in replacement-level inning you can get if he hits the DL.  Great value with the 100th pick (9th round).

Just for fun, though, what could Chamberlain do in 30 starts?  Assuming 5.44 innings per, that's 163.33 innings.  He'd be worth $24.58, 10th among starters.  163 innings isn't that crazy - Will Carroll predicted 175, and Peter Abraham went with 160.

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Fantasy Effect Of A-Rod's Steroid Use?

As you know, Alex Rodriguez admitted to using steroids from 2001-03.  Does this matter for fantasy baseball players drafting for 2009?

If Rodriguez lied in today's interview with Peter Gammons and has been using performance-enhancing drugs in recent seasons, there's no particular reason to think he'll stop for 2009.  If he was truthful, then he's been able to put up massive numbers without steroids.  Either way, we can't let the 2001-03 usage affect our 2009 projections.

The other factor is psychological.  Rodriguez is said to be sensitive, so people wonder if added media pressure and taunts from opposing fans could affect him.  My opinion is that the added hoopla won't change anything - even with the steroid stuff, it would be hard for A-Rod to garner more attention that he already gets.  The Red Sox fan holds up an A-Roid sign instead of some other insult, and the reporter asks about roids instead of Joe Torre or Madonna.  Same difference, is my guess.  If A-Rod does happen to have an off year, I don't think it will be fair to attribute it to the steroid stuff.

Rodriguez currently has an average draft position of 2.38; he's gone no later than fifth.  Maybe this will push people to start drafting Albert Pujols ahead of A-Rod, but I'd be surprised to see Rodriguez drop several spots.  Bottom line, this probably won't make A-Rod a draft bargain and if you were going to draft him you should continue to do so.

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Joba Chamberlain's 2009 Innings

Recently a reader pointed out a bold projection from Ron Shandler and company at Baseball HQ: 199 innings for Joba Chamberlain in 2009.  Most forecasters agree that Joba's ERA, WHIP, and K/9 will be very strong in '09, but with that innings total you'd have to consider him a top five fantasy starter.  Mock drafters are taking Chamberlain in the 9th round on average, indicating concern that his innings will be limited by the Yankees, his health, or a midseason move to the 'pen.

I asked eleven of my favorite baseball writers to predict Chamberlain's 2009 regular season Major League innings total.  Here are the results:

• Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus: 175
• Peter Abraham, The Lohud Journal: 160
• Ken Rosenthal, FOX Sports: 155
• Peter Gammons, ESPN: 145
• Joe Pawlikowski, River Ave. Blues: 142
• Jerry Crasnick, ESPN: 142
• Ken Davidoff, Newsday: 141.6
• Rick Wilton, Baseball Injury Report: 140
• Rob Neyer, ESPN: 137.6
• Keith Law, ESPN: 125
• Jon Heyman, SI: 109

The average comes to 142.9 innings.  If Joba pitches 143 innings, I'd rank him 18th among fantasy starters - after Cliff Lee but before Rich Harden.  It's quite conceivable that Chamberlain could have more fantasy value (in just 143 innings) than John Lackey, Felix Hernandez, Scott Kazmir, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, who are all being drafted before him.

As we mentioned in the Max Scherzer post, Chamberlain will probably pitch well if he's healthy and hit the disabled list otherwise.  If he's on the DL, you can take the best available waiver wire arm.   143 innings from Joba plus 50 from the waiver wire probably equals a top ten starter.  Scherzer, Harden, and Randy Johnson may be underrated in a similar fashion.

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Mark Teixeira Signing Analysis

The Yankees made another huge move today, signing Mark Teixeira for $180 million.  Let's talk about the fantasy effects.

I had Tex at something like .298-33-114-97-2 in 2009, which would put him fifth among first basemen and among the top 25 hitters drafted.  I'm not sure how the new Yankee Stadium will play, but I don't see it causing a big difference.  It's also indeterminate whether Tex will see increased RBI chances as a Yankee.  With the Braves he hit behind Chipper Jones, who got on base 47% of the time.  With the Angels he followed lower OBP types.

Tex batted with 355 runners on base in 2008, 95th in the game.  Five Yankee players batted with more in '08, so that indicates maybe he will get more chances.  Still, I'm not comfortable counting on a player driving in more than 115 runs.

Right now it seems that the Teixeira signing reduces playing time for the group of Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady, and Nick Swisher.  However, it would not be surprising to see the Yanks trade one of them.

Unless the Angels go get someone, it's Kendry Morales at first base to start 2009.  With a Major League Equivalent of .276/.316/.429, it's hard to get excited.  I suppose he could approach 20 HR with 550 ABs.

The Teixeira signing seemingly makes the Nationals more likely to pursue Adam Dunn.  There would be a ballpark effect - his two home parks in '08 inflated left-handed HRs greatly while Nationals park suppresses them significantly.  Maybe Dunn's raw power overrides that somewhat though.

All in all I don't see a huge fantasy effect from this signing.  Most likely the Yankee Hype Effect pushes Teixeira from his current 14.23 average draft position into the first round.  I wouldn't take him there.

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A 3.35 ERA For Phil Hughes?

I've been having fun with the Bill James projections, which you can purchase for $9.95 here.  Today let's take a look at some interesting starters they project to post an ERA under 4.00 in 2009.

• Barry Zito - 3.94
• Tim Wakefield - 3.91
• Jonathan Sanchez - 3.90
• Jorge Campillo - 3.86
• Pedro Martinez - 3.36
• Phil Hughes - 3.35

A few of those are quite bold.  Hughes may be the Yankees' sixth starter heading into 2009, but they have him third in ERA in the American League.  How do they think he'll pull this off?  With an 8.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9, and 7.92 H/9.  Hughes has not demonstrated those skills in his 106.2 big league innings.

As for Pedro, projection systems can't understand he had major surgery and isn't the same pitcher.  Most of you incorporate gut feel when crafting your fantasy teams, and this is a great example why that's necessary.

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