MLB Stat Leaders

Home Run Per Flyball Leaders

Today we'll take a look at this year's home run per flyball leaders.  This rate is supposed to regress toward 10%, but every year many pitchers benefit by posting lower rates.  But before we get into the 2008 leaders, let's examine those who topped the list in '07.  Did these players see their HR/flyball rate go up or down in '08?

1. Brad Penny - 4.7% - went up
2. Chris Young - 5.0% - went up
3. Kelvim Escobar - 6.0% - didn't pitch
4. Chien-Ming Wang - 6.4% - went down
5. Tim Hudson - 6.6% - went up
6. Matt Cain - 6.7% - went up
7. Jake Peavy - 6.7% - went up
8. Adam Wainwright - 7.0% - went up
9. Roy Halladay - 7.3% - went up
10. Jon Garland - 7.4% - went up

Tons of injured pitchers among the '07 leaders for some reason.  But more importantly, all but one of the active pitchers saw their HR/flyball go up the following year.

Now let's look at the '08 leaders:

1. Cliff Lee - 6.0%
2. Tim Lincecum - 6.5%
3. Ubaldo Jimenez - 6.9%
4. John Danks - 7.1%
5. Mike Pelfrey - 7.2%
6. Daisuke Matsuzaka - 7.5%
7. Dana Eveland - 7.5%
8. Ryan Dempter - 7.6%
9. Ben Sheets - 7.6%
10. Justin Verlander - 7.9%

Holding all else equal, we should expect these pitchers' HR rates (and therefore ERAs) to rise in 2009.  Keep that in mind on draft day.  Other notable pitchers with abnormally low HR/flyball rates include Joey Devine, Matt Lindstrom, Jonathan Broxton, Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood, Brian Fuentes, Chris Volstad, Kevin Gregg, Grant Balfour, Bobby Jenks, Anthony Reyes, B.J. Ryan, Joba Chamberlain, Rich Harden, C.C. Sabathia, Brad Ziegler, Francisco Rodriguez, Dustin McGowan, Andrew Miller, and Justin Duchscherer.

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June Leaders

It's always interesting to slice things up by month and examine the leaders.  If the below players had posted these numbers in April, general perception of them might be different.  Look at the May leaders to see how quickly things change.

AVG

1. Placido Polanco - .386.
2. Vladimir Guerrero - .375.
3. Kurt Suzuki - .370.
4. Alex Rodriguez, Casey Blake (still in many waiver wires) - .366.

HR

1. J.D. Drew - 12.
2. Marcus Thames, Hanley Ramirez - 10.
4. Alex Rodriguez, Jermaine Dye, Russell Branyan, Mark Teixeira, Grady Sizemore - 9.

RBI

1. Jermaine Dye, J.D. Drew - 27.
3. Ryan Howard - 26.
4. Jose Guillen, Mike Lowell - 25.

R

1. J.D. Drew, Hanley Ramirez - 27.
3. Jose Reyes, Ian Kinsler - 26.
5. Alex Rodriguez - 24.

SB

1. Willy Taveras - 16.
2. Juan Pierre - 14.
3. Jose Reyes - 11.
4. Jimmy Rollins, Ichiro Suzuki - 9.

ERA

1. John Lackey - 1.16.
2. Dan Haren- 1.32.
3. Felix Hernandez - 1.38.
4. Justin Duchscherer - 1.45.
5. Mark Buehrle - 1.60.

WHIP

1. John Lackey - 0.78.
2. Justin Duchscherer - 0.80.
3. Dan Haren - 0.80.
4. Cole Hamels - 0.87.
5. Felix Hernandez - 0.88.

W

1. Kyle Lohse, John Lackey, Jonathan Sanchez, Manny Parra - 5.

K

1. C.C. Sabathia - 44.
2. A.J. Burnett - 43.
3. Rich Harden - 42.
4. Ted Lilly, Roy Oswalt, Jonathan Sanchez - 39.

SV

1. Francisco Rodriguez - 11
2. Joakim Soria - 10.
3. George Sherrill - 9.
4. Salomon Torres, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon - 8.

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The Halfway Point - Pitcher Projections

How would the leaderboards look at year's end if we simply doubled current stats?  Who do you feel is likely to fall off the pace?  Here's a look at counting stat projections for starters.

Innings Pitched

1. Roy Halladay - 260.6
2. Cole Hamels - 240.0
3. Aaron Harang - 236.6
4. Aaron Cook - 232.6
5. Jeremy Guthrie - 231.3
6. Roy Oswalt - 230.6
7. Tim Hudson, C.C. Sabathia - 228.6
9. Joe Blanton - 228.0
10. Johan Santana - 227.3

Strikeouts

1. C.C. Sabathia - 236
2. Tim Lincecum - 228
3. Edinson Volquez - 220
4. A.J. Burnett - 216
5. Roy Halladay - 212
6. Javier Vazquez - 208
7. Johan Santana, Cole Hamels - 206
9. Aaron Harang, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Sanchez - 204

Wins

1. Brandon Webb - 24
2. Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders - 22
4. Mike Mussina, Vicente Padilla, Aaron Cook, Kyle Lohse, Edinson Volquez - 20
9. Andy Pettitte, Braden Looper, Ryan Dempster, Roy Halladay, Ted Lilly, Ben Sheets, Gavin Floyd, Ervin Santana, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Lincecum, Andy Sonnanstine - 18

Saves

1. Francisco Rodriguez - 64
2. George Sherrill - 52
3. Jonathan Papelbon - 48
4. Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Jose Valverde, Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria - 44
9. Kerry Wood - 40
10. Troy Percival - 38

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The Halfway Point - Hitter Projections

Most teams haven't hit the 81 game mark yet, but many will this weekend.  How would the leaderboards look at year's end if we simply doubled current stats?  Who do you feel is likely to fall off the pace?

Runs

1. Lance Berkman - 140.
2. Hanley Ramirez - 134.
3. Ian Kinsler - 132.
4. Nate McLouth - 118.
5. Jose Reyes - 116.
6. Chase Utley, Dan Uggla - 114.
8. Derrek Lee, Carlos Beltran, Jason Bay - 110.

Home Runs

1. Dan Uggla - 46.
2. Chase Utley - 44.
3. Lance Berkman, Adrian Gonzalez - 42.
5. Ryan Braun - 40.
6. Pat Burrell, Josh Hamilton, Ryan Howard - 38.
9. Adam Dunn, Mike Jacobs - 36.

RBIs

1. Josh Hamilton - 152.
2. Adrian Gonzalez - 132.
3. Ryan Howard - 130.
4. Lance Berkman, Chase Utley - 126.
6. Justin Morneau - 124.
7. Jose Guillen, David Wright - 120.
9. Carlos Lee - 118.
10. Dan Uggla - 116.

Stolen Bases

1. Willy Taveras - 70.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury - 68.
3. Ichiro Suzuki - 66.
4. Juan Pierre - 64.
5. Michael Bourn - 60.
6. Jose Reyes - 56.
7. B.J. Upton - 44.
8. Brian Roberts - 42.
9. Shane Victorino, Carlos Gomez - 40.

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May Leaders

Let's take a look at your roto category leaders for May.  I hadn't realized some of these leaders.

• AVG: Lance Berkman (.471), Chipper Jones (.417), Clint Barmes (.391).
• HR: Dan Uggla (12), Ryan Braun (11).
• RBI: Carlos Lee (30), Ryan Howard (30).
• R: Lance Berkman (31), Shane Victorino (29), Dan Uggla (28), Ryan Howard (28).
• SBs: Ichiro Suzuki (18), Jacoby Ellsbury (18).  Wow!
• ERA: Aaron Laffey (0.79), Scott Kazmir (1.22), Jason Bergmann (1.30).
• WHIP: Jose Contreras (0.84), Shaun Marcum (0.88), Tim Hudson (1.02).
• W: Mike Mussina (5), Scott Kazmir (5).
• Ks: Edinson Volquez (50), Josh Beckett (46), A.J. Burnett (46).
• SV: Jose Valverde (10), Francisco Rodriguez (10), B.J. Ryan (10).

Imagine if the season began in May - wouldn't you value many of these players differently?  Hell, I cut Victorino in one league, added Contreras and Bergmann in another.

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