Minnesota Twins

Closer Report: Minnesota Twins

MARCH 9: The news that Nathan may need Tommy John surgery knocks him off draft boards for now.  Guerrier, Rauch, and Mijares remain my favorites to replace him (in that order), with Pat Neshek and Jesse Crain two other names we can't rule out.  If manager Ron Gardenhire tips his hand or the Twins add a proven closer, we'll be sure to update the situation on our Twitter account CloserNews.

MARCH 3: Twins closer Joe Nathan is still among the very best in the business.  He's going in the seventh round, and the 40 saves, 2.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 75 Ks are worth it.

Nathan is 35, and he had offseason surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow.  He doesn't seem to be off-track because of it, but it's important to know your backup options.

Matt Guerrier is one possibility, though he struck out only 5.5 per nine in '09.  Jose Mijares hasn't been around as long, but he does throw a bit harder and whiffed a more appropriate 8.0 per nine.  However, he's left-handed.  The Twins also have Jon Rauch, who came on strong in his 15.6 innings for them and has closing experience.  Guerrier wins out in terms of Baseball Prospectus' leverage stat, though the other two were close.  If I had to pick one, it'd be Guerrier.

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Post-Hype Sleepers: Francisco Liriano

There was a time when Francisco Liriano was on a gravy train with biscuit wheels.  He posted a 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 144 strikeouts, and a strong groundball rate in 121 innings in 2006, his rookie season.  His stuff was ridiculous - a fastball averaging 94.7 mph and a nasty slider, coming from the left side.

But Liriano's elbow started barking in August of '06, and by November he was on the table for Tommy John surgery. 

The Twins had Liriano up for three ugly starts in April of '08, but then had him start his next 20 in the minors.  He pitched well but the Twins waited until August 3rd to recall him, causing some to suggest the team was trying to avoid Super Two status.  Liriano was sharp over those final two months - 2.74 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9.  Warnings signs we might've missed: his fastball velocity hadn't returned, and he faced terrible offenses in 7 of the 11 starts.

Fantasy touts, myself included, figured Liriano was ready to return contribute in 2009, even if he didn't return to greatness.  I liked him for a sub-4.00 ERA, a sub-1.30 WHIP, and plenty of Ks.  He was being drafted in the 6th round - typically too rich for my blood, but not indefensible.  Liriano was a huge bust though - 5.80 ERA, tons of walks, hits, and home runs, and a 91.7 mph average fastball.  David Golebiewski of FanGraphs says Liriano wasn't as bad as his numbers, but his stuff was still way off.

Here in 2010, Liriano is being drafted at 280.80 - the 24th round in a 12-team mixed league.  At present, he's a risk-free choice.  You're not risking much even if he moves up in draft position over the next couple months.  And he will move up - Liriano dazzled in the Dominican Winter League and figures to do the same in Spring Training. He says his velocity, location, and slider are back and he feels like he did in '06.  Take him in the 15th round or later and see if the statement holds up.

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Pick Up Denard Span?

I have to admit, I hadn't given Twins right fielder Denard Span much consideration.  But I read this post by Dave Cameron today - it appears Span's on-base ability is for real (and there was never any doubting his speed).  As Cameron says, Span is flying under the radar because he plays for the Twins.

In Triple A this year, Span attempted a steal more than 30% of the time he was on first base.  He's at 16% in the bigs so far, which will hopefully rise as he becomes a better baserunner.

Michael Cuddyer's return next week might affect Span's playing time, though.  Logic says Span moves to center field with Carlos Gomez going to Triple A or the bench.  But we know the Twins aren't always logical.

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Eyeing Francisco Liriano

Francisco Liriano is unavailable in many leagues.  But you may still find him in shallow leagues or leagues with small benches.

The 24 year-old former phenom currently has a 3.80 ERA in 15 Triple A starts.  He has a 7.8 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9.  Not bad, but not the absurd rates he put up in Triple A pre-TJ: 11.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.

Good news: he's rattled off 13 scoreless innings, whiffing 16 and walking two in that period.  For more information, we turn to the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle.  Kevin Oklobzija says Liriano is overpowering hitters with his three-pitch repertoire of fastball, slider, and changeup.

I was concerned about Liriano's velocity - his fastball averaged 94.7 mph in '06, but just 90.4 in the Majors this year.  I asked Oklobzija about that.  His response:

From what I've seen, and heard from folks with the club, he's maybe in the 92-93 range on a consistent basis.  More importantly, he's willingly throwing his slider again.

Sounds pretty good, even if he's not vintage Liriano.  We may have to wait until '09 for that, though he should be somewhat effective this year.  The only problem is that Livan Hernandez has pitched decently in his last four starts.  The other four starters have all been strong, so there's no imminent path for Liriano to return to the bigs.

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Twins 5th Starter Battle

Sometimes I wonder:  are the Twins even trying to win?  I mean, do they just want to put a kind of respectable team on the field and have a record over .500, or are they going for the gold?  (Ewww, Olympics reference). 

I wonder this for various reasons.  First off, Tony Batista.  Do I really need to say more about that?

Second, Ruben Sierra.  Why does he deserve a roster spot?  I know it's too early to get on Jason Kubel bandwagon before he sees game action.  But even 75% of Kubel gives you a better chance to win than Sierra.  Now, Sierra is a non-roster invitee so it's still possible Kubel makes the team over him.  But seriously, I'd rather have Kubel shaking off the rust against Major League pitchers than have Sierra on my bench or DHing.

Let me interject this rant with a related rant.  When an average joe like me proposes a bunch of roster changes like this, sometimes using numbers as an argument, it's often dismissed because the team "isn't a fantasy baseball team."  What exactly does that mean?  Teams make tons and tons of roster moves; why are these any different? 

Back to my main point, that the Twins aren't trying to win it all.  My third data point in that argument is the fifth starter job.  Per Aaron Gleeman yesterday:

"Francisco Liriano has been asked to pitch for the Dominican Republic in next month's World Baseball Classic, and Ron Gardenhire suggests that not being in camp could hurt Liriano's chances of beating Scott Baker out for the fifth spot in the rotation. I happen to think that the Twins have all but decided on Baker already, in which case Liriano might as well pitch for his country if it means a lot to him."

Alright, I can definitely see why Baker should be in the rotation from the get-go.  You know I've been singing his praises for a while now.  But while Baker should be good, Liriano has the potential for greatness.  On any other team except maybe the White Sox, Liriano would also be a lock for the starting rotation.  He's got nothing left to prove in Triple A after posting a 1.78 ERA there in 91 innings.  His peripheral stats - strikeouts, walks, HR allowed -  are off the charts.

Compare this to the proven mediocrity that is Kyle Lohse.  Lohse won his arbitration case after posting an extremely flukey 4.18 ERA in 2005 (it was coupled with a 1.43 WHIP).  The only thing Lohse has going for him is good control and veteran experience.  I project him at a 5.13 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 2006.  It would be impossible to argue that Lohse gives you a better chance to win than Liriano.  It's irrefutable that Liriano is superior.  Liriano is the best pitching prospect in baseball.  Even if he struggles, he's easily better than Lohse.

Sure, Lohse will be traded, released, or demoted by summertime and Liriano will join the rotation.  But every win counts, especially in the AL Central.  The Twins need to make the "fantasy baseball choice" and put both Liriano and Baker in the rotation for the entire season.  But they probably won't, and the fantasy upshot is that Liriano may be overlooked in shallower mixed leagues.

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