Los Angeles Dodgers

Lilly Remains With Dodgers

Good news for fantasy leaguers, as lefty Ted Lilly inked a three-year deal with the Dodgers.  Lilly has found the National League to his liking since 2007, trimming his walk rate significantly.  Only a handful of starting pitchers had an average fastball velocity below Lilly's 86.7 mph this year.  Unlike Mark Buehrle, Livan Hernandez, and others, Lilly is able to deceive his way to a strikeout rate near 8.0 per nine typically.

Lilly's wart is his groundball rate, which at 29.5% was the second-worst in baseball this year behind Kevin Slowey.  Tons of flyballs means frequent home runs; fortunately, they come without men on base given Lilly's control and apparent ability to prevent batted balls from falling for hits.  Dodger Stadium has a reputation as a pitcher-friendly place, though this year and in '07 it actually inflated home runs according to ESPN's park factors.  Lilly had a 1.35 HR/9 in 46.6 Dodger Stadium innings this year, which is around what we've come to expect from him.

Lilly had a sparkling 2.96 SIERA in 76.6 innings for the Dodgers this year, with a 4.14 mark in 117 Cubs frames.  His past Cubs' SIERAs suggest you should look for something in the 3.80 range going forward.  Lilly turns 35 in January, and there is health risk.  He missed most of April this year due to minor shoulder surgery, and has a history of shoulder problems from his American League days.

Lilly isn't an exciting pitcher, but he still gives you 165 Ks and a strong WHIP.  Last year he was drafted in the 16th round on average, and he should be in the same bargain range in 2011.

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Clayton Kershaw Time?

Looks like phenom Clayton Kershaw may debut in Chicago on Tuesday.  The 20 year-old has these numbers in Double A:

43.3 IP
9 starts
2.28 ERA
1.08 WHIP
9.76 K/9
3.12 BB/9
3.13 K/BB
6.65 H/9
.291 BABIP
0.00 HR/9

In an early Kerry Wood sort of way, it's likely that Kershaw will have a strong WHIP even if control is worse than average.  That's because he'll be very tough to hit.  He has ace stuff.

I can't tell you what kind of adjustment period Kershaw will need.  Try to look at the bigger picture if he struggles at first.  He's skipping Triple A by design, but he's still missing out on that experience.  I would use a #1 waiver priority on him, if only for the strikeout potential alone.

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Watching Kuroda

Why did I wait til this year to get the Extra Innings package?  This is great.  I've been watching Hiroki Kuroda's debut against the Padres in HD.

Granted it's the Padres, but Kuroda is looking nasty.  He's mixing in all kinds of pitches - splitters, sliders, shuutos.  And his heater is consistently a healthy 93mph.  I really like Kuroda's chances of baffling the NL for much of this year.  And even when the scouting reports make their way around, his stuff is legit.  He's going to be one of the more valuable undrafted players of '08.  Consider picking him up now if you can, as he's allowed one hit in his first five innings.  He might be a popular pickup in shallower-type leagues on Saturday.

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More Good Vibes On Furcal

As someone who has drafted Rafael Furcal early (sixth round) and often, I'm pleased to read articles like this.  So many things going for him: contract year, return to health, spring SLG more than .200 over his career mark. 

Furcal is my fifth-ranked shortstop, behind Reyes, Ramirez, Rollins, and Jeter.  But two things on that.  First, Jeter goes too early so I'd rather have Furcal.  Second, I fully expect Furcal to beat my .280-11-54-99-28 in 589 ABs projection.  Lots of people are taking Troy Tulowitzki before Furcal, and I think it's a mistake.

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2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Hiroki Kuroda

One starter who is catching my eye in my recent drafts is Hiroki Kuroda of the Dodgers.  I love the upside he provides as someone you can draft in the last three rounds of a mixed league.

My projection calls for a 4.07 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 112 Ks in 171 innings.  But such projections are all numbers, no feel.  Sometimes in fantasy baseball you have to make some gut calls.

Read this Rosenthal article about Kuroda.  I think the word "bulldog" appears eight times.  Plus, he throws a shuuto.  Incidentally, I used to toss one of those in Little League but decided to focus on my gyroball.  Last year's slightly disappointing Daisuke Matsuzaka and massively awful Kei Igawa both pitched in the AL East.  Who's to say Kuroda won't run the table in the weaker league?  No projection system predicted 142 innings of 1.77 ERA ball from Takashi Saito, but that's his career thus far.

I could see Kuroda coming in and baffling the NL for a while.  Two months, two years, I'm not sure.  But a low hit rate and high strikeout rate could definitely happen here.  It's just kind of unpredictable and mysterious.  So instead of taking Mark Buehrle, Tom Glavine, Andy Pettitte, and Barry Zito, I'm taking Kuroda.  The worst that can happen is wasting your 25th round pick.

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Loney Nights At First Base

I'm noticed various outlets recommending Dodgers rookie James Loney as a good NL-only pickup while Nomar Garciaparra is out.  I'm not so sure.

It's true that Loney, a left-handed first baseman, will get most of the ABs against righthanders in April.  Maybe it's because I have never seen him play in person, but I can't understand why anyone would be high on him.  Last year in Double A Jacksonville, Loney hit .284/.357/.419 in 504 at-bats.  Granted, the Baseball Grounds of Jacksonville rates as one of the best pitchers' parks in the Southern League.  But just 11 HRs in 500+ Double A at-bats can't be explained away by park effects.

At least he'll hit for average in L.A., right?  Well, no.  As a player with a contact rate of about 83% and a walk rate of 10%, Loney looks like a .270 hitter at best for the time being.  And that's .270 if his minor league skills don't erode in the bigs.

Loney still hasn't hit his 22nd birthday, so he gets plenty of points in prospect rankings for holding his own at a young age.  Think Adrian Gonzalez circa 2003.  Loney has battled finger and wrist injuries in recent years.  His .438 spring average was nice, though he didn't homer in the 32 ABs.  He sounds like a good kid and he's a defensive whiz.  But in what kind of fantasy league can a no-hit rookie first baseman be an asset?   

(Watch, he hits .350 with 5 HR in April because of this post).

If you owned Nomar and you were strangely playing him at first base in a 12 team NL-only league with 5-deep benches, Loney might be the only guy out there who will actually get playing time.  So I guess that's the situation in which he has a little bit of value.   

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