Kansas City Royals

Sleepers & Busts: Frank Francisco, Alex Gordon

To see Frank Francisco on your fantasy squad every day isn't an especially pleasant experience. Somehow, he's been lumped in with the likes of the Kevin Gregg types, which is to say that when he pitches well, you feel like you need to take a shower, and when he doesn't, your self-loathing rages while you rationalize dropping him for Jack Cust's impending hot streak -- a hot streak, by the way, that'll never come.

Alex Gordon, meanwhile, is a guy with whom you might have proudly pulled into sixth place prior to 2011. He's a kid from the Heartland, a former top draft pick of the then-pitiable Royals who came too close to never even scratching at potential that was unfairly overestimated in the first place. He finally attained post-hype-breakout status last season, though, rounding out his career arc such that if it were scored, it'd go something like the "Running On Empty"-"Go Your Own Way"-"Against The Wind" trifecta from Forrest Gump's jogging-across-the-country sequence.

But these are prejudices, dear readers, narratives devised by an evil force (or perhaps me) -- one that is conspiring to trick you into making bad selections on Draft Day. Let's try to thwart these with some truth missiles.

Frank Francisco, Mets, ADP: 231

Do fantasy owners not realize Francisco will be the Mets' closer in 2012? The right-hander's current average draft position, per Mock Draft Central, is roughly 231, which is early in the 19th round of a 12-teamer. For context, he's currently being drafted after a handful of setup men, even a few pedestrian ones like Francisco Cordero.

Look, Francisco is a solid pitcher. He's struck out well over a batter per inning in his career, and though his 3.91 BB/9 ain't pretty, he's gotten his control, um, under control over the past three years: 2.74, 3.08, 3.20. As well, you might be surprised to learn that his highest SIERA over the past four seasons was a not-bad-at-all 3.04 in 2011. That'll play.

The news gets better from there, as Francisco has left baseball's toughest division for the National League and the pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field. The outfield fences have been moved in in Queens, so it remains to be seen exactly how differently fly balls will play, but I can't see the ballpark being any worse than neutral for pitchers -- and even that seems a stretch.

The only red flag from where I sit is the matter of Francisco's durability: He's spent time on the DL in each of the past three years. The silver lining, at least, is that he's still managed to toss about 50 innings in each of those years, so it's not as if he's held together by Scotch Tape and chewing gum. Injury might seem inevitable now, but good luck trying to guess if and when that'll occur.

In the meanwhile, watch equivalent (or even less valuable) pitchers fly off your league's draft board, and keep Fran-Fran in your back pocket. And in the unlikely event someone snipes him right before you're about to pick, you can always throw a chair.

Alex Gordon, Royals, ADP: 62

Al-Gor's long-awaited arrival (23 HR, 101 R, 87 RBI, 17 SB, .303 AVG) was the feel-good hit of the summer last year in Kansas City and fantasyland alike. You'd have to be immune to narratives a hard-hearted man to think otherwise.

But with the newfound celebration of Gordon comes the inevitable backlash. In 2012, that's likely to arrive unceremoniously in the form of a healthy regression from 2011's .358 BABIP, which will in turn make it difficult for the left-handed hitter to replicate his .303 batting average.

The extent to which Gordon's average will slide back is tough to figure, even beyond BABIP's typical slipperiness. He almost certainly won't hit .300, but after that, it's sketchy, and much has been written on the subject, with varying conclusions. Will it be .260, .270, or .280? I'd split the baby, but even still, Gordon has the earmarks of a perceived five-cat contributor who may stretch the bounds of the label's definition with a little less luck. Plus, he'll no longer have the bonus of third-base eligibility that he had a year ago. Bummer.

Gordon, who'll turn 28 next month, will be worthy of a roster spot this season, for sure, but I'm not taking him in the fifth round. Carlos Beltran and Andre Ethier, for example, are roughly comparable offensive contributors who are going off the board about six rounds later. Neither of those veterans is likely to approach Gordon's projected 14 steals, but then again, they're both likely to hit for a higher batting average.

Gordon is here to stay as a worthwhile own, but don't pay full price for his 2011, because you'll be chasing a ghost.

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Position Battles: Royals Second Base/Third Base

In case you missed it, I've already broken down position battles for the Orioles' closer and Diamondbacks' first baseman/left field gigs. Next up in the series is the battle between four players who will be vying for two starting infield jobs in Kansas City. 

Mike Aviles vs Chris Getz vs Wilson Betemit vs Mike Moustakas

Tale of the Tape

Aviles: 29 years old, est. $475K salary 2010 stats: .304 BA, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 63 R, 16 2B, 3 3B, 20 BB, 49 K in 424 AB's, 14 SB  2011 Outlook: Favorite to be starting 3B, could be 2B if Betemit or Moustakas win 3B job.

After Tommy John surgery cost Aviles a majority of the 2009 season, he returned with a successful 2010. In his two full big league seasons (2008, 2010), the right-handed hitter has shown the ability to maintain a .300 BA and the potential to add 10-15 HR's and 15-20 SB's over a full year. His .801 OPS from the #2 hole last season should solidify his spot in the lineup. The only question is whether he plays second base or third base.

Getz: 27 years old, est. $440K salary 2010 stats: .237 BA, 0 HR, 18 RBI, 23 R, 9 2B, 19 BB, 28 K in 224 AB's, 15 SB 2011 Outlook: Favorite to be starting 2B

Multiple injuries (oblique, concussion) cost Getz a chance to stay on the field consistently in his first season with the Royals after being acquired from the White Sox last offseason. When he did play, he didn't hit much but the left-handed hitter showed an ability to work the count, take a walk, and wreak havoc on the basepaths (15 SB in 17 attempts). He'll likely have a couple of months to prove that he can provide enough offense to be a big league regular. If not, he'll likely have to make his living as a utilityman.

Betemit: 29 years old, $1MM salary 2010 stats: .297 BA, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 36 R, 20 2B, 36 BB, 74 K in 276 AB's 2011 Outlook: Should see good number of AB's at 3B, DH, 1B, LF

Even after resurrecting his career with an .889 OPS and finishing the season as the team's primary third baseman, Betemit is more likely to get his AB's at another position in 2011. The Royals probably want to get a good look at second baseman Getz early in the season, keeping Aviles at third base. Even if Getz can't hold onto the job, Moustakas should be in Kansas City no later than mid-June. Still, the switch-hitting Betemit is versatile enough that he'll get his share of AB's somewhere and could claim the designated hitter role full-time if Kila Ka'aihue struggles. 

Moustakas: 22 years old, est. $414K salary 2010 stats: .322 BA, 36 HR, 124 RBI, 94 R, 41 2B, 34 BB, 67 K in 484 AB's, 2 SB (AAA/AA) 2011 Outlook: Long shot to be starting 3B on Opening Day, Favorite to be starting 3B by mid-June

Like Buster Posey, Mike Stanton, and Stephen Strasburg in 2010, Moustakas is expected to spend most of April and May in the minors before a permanent call to the big leagues. It doesn't mean he won't have a chance to break camp with the team but he'll have to put up huge numbers in Spring Training in order to force the Royals' hand. Between Aviles and Betemit, the team should be able to stand pat and allow Moustakas to continue developing in the minors. 

Final Word

While there is little doubt that Moustakas will be the Royals' third baseman at some point in 2011, there is a good chance he starts the season in Triple-A. With that in mind, the Royals can use the early part of the season to determine if Aviles or Getz will be the starting second baseman for the remainder of the season once Moustakas arrives. Betemit could be a trade chip later in the season, especially if he continues to hit as he did in 2010, but he'll need ABs in order to build up his value. 

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Players To Watch: Kansas City Royals

Let's see what the Royals have to offer mixed leagues in 2011...

• Billy Butler, 1B.  Took a mild step back in power in his age 24 season.  I don't see why Butler can't provide a .300-20-100 season next year, and fantasy leaguers sometimes take him early in case he's ready to truly break out.  He trimmed strikeouts and improved his walk rate this year.
• Yuniesky Betancourt, SS.  16 homers and 78 RBIs, that's a quality mixed league shortstop.  Six of his homers were "just enoughs," so maybe look for 10 bombs in 2011.
• Mike Aviles, 2B.  He qualifies at shortstop too if your league uses a 10-game requirement.  Nice bounceback year for Aviles, who had a lost 2009 due to elbow surgery.  He's got a little pop, and he attempted to steal over 15% of the time he was on first base.  Quality middle infield sleeper.
• David DeJesus, OF.  His best season was cut short in July due to thumb surgery.  He's always provided sneaky value in average and runs.
• Wilson Betemit, 3B.  Massive .297/.378/.511 line in a half season.  He won't do that again, but he could certainly hit 20 home runs given 600 plate appearances as the team's regular third baseman.  Think about him for your CI slot if it's really, really late.
• Alex Gordon, OF.  Only played 10 games at 3B this year.  He says he's going to "dominate" next year, and I could see him matching Ned Yost's 20 home run, 80 RBI suggestion.  If he runs a little and his average isn't horrible, there could be some value.  You'll be able to get him late.
• Kila Ka'aihue, 1B.  Another huge year at Triple A, as well as six home runs in the bigs in the final month.  There's at least some chance of 25+ home runs and a quality OBP.  If he appears to be in line for regular duty come March, take a look.
• Zack Greinke, SP.  Unless he's traded to the Yankees or something, he could be a nice value pick next year.  SIERA puts him at 3.70 this year as opposed to his 4.17 ERA.  He admitted in September that he felt burnt out and unmotivated at times, so there is a mental component.  Certainly capable of a sub-3.00 ERA again.
• Luke Hochevar, SP.  We talked about him yesterday - interesting, but no need to draft him.
• Gil Meche, SP.  Also not worth drafting.  Maybe a healthy Meche could give you another 2008, but his shoulder probably won't allow 30 starts.  He could end up as Soria's setup man and therefore a dark horse for saves.
• Joakim Soria, RP.  He may be the game's best closer; he should go earlier than the ninth round this time.
• Mike Montgomery, SP.  Well-regarded 21-year-old lefty prospect.  He was decent at Double A, and could have some big league success in 2010, but I'd be surprised if he made a fantasy impact.
• Mike Moustakas, 3B.  Recently turned 22; hit .293/.314/.564 with 15 home runs in 236 plate appearances at Triple A.  He was incredible at Double A and could be an immediate .300, 25 home run threat as a rookie.  I imagine he'll start at Triple A.  Keep an eye on his performance and prepare for a potential June call-up.
• Eric Hosmer, 1B.  Just 21, he finished the year at Double A.  Hosmer has mammoth power, slugging .615 with 13 home runs in 211 PAs there.  If Ka'aihue struggles and Hosmer is raking, the Royals could bring him up.  Like Moustakas, he could make an impact right away.

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Closer Report: Kansas City Royals

Royals closer Joakim Soria is currently being drafted in the 9th round.  Given his ridiculous skills, that's a reasonable place to take him.

Who's behind Soria on the depth chart?  Assuming Kyle Farnsworth goes to the rotation, I'd place Juan Cruz is second in line.  Cruz had an awful 2009 amid a shoulder strain, but he still throws 94 and is earning $3.25MM.  Should he fail to crack the rotation, Robinson Tejeda is another setup candidate (11.8 K/9 in 42 relief innings last year). 

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Will KC Help Mike Jacobs?

The Royals acquired Mike Jacobs to provide power at first base in 2009.  Can Jacobs match his 32 HR from 2008?

For lefthanded hitters, Dolphins Stadium inflates homers by 5%.  Meanwhile, Kauffman Stadium deflates lefty homers by 14%.  So, the ballpark switch alone could cost Jacobs three bombs (all else being equal).

Of course, all else isn't equal.  Jacobs goes to the harder league, and he's 28 now.  Without engaging in any real math, I'm comfortable knocking him down to 25 HR.  Throw in the weak AVG and there's not much here.  Quietly, Josh Phelps might be able to do the same thing for the Giants if he gets the playing time.

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Undervalued Royals

When I go digging for sleepers/undervalued players, I often look to the Royals.  They're just a low-profile club and have been for years.  Some players to consider for 2009:

• Alex Gordon, 3B.  Gordon had a slight gain in slugging and a large gain in walk rate.  Sadly, he attempted fewer steals per times on first base.  He's progressed slower than we'd hoped, but maybe next year he puts up the .280-30-100-90-15 line.
• Billy Butler, 1B.  He slugged .476 after the break, flashing 20 HR potential.  He needs to improve against righties though.
• Mike Aviles, 2B/SS.  Eligible at two crucial positions, and didn't slump much as the season went on.  No one thinks he's a .325 hitter but he still looks like a solid late option.
• Ryan Shealy/Kila Ka'aihue, 1B.  Nothing amazing, but if one of these guys locks down a full-time job he could pop 20 HR.
• Zack Greinke, SP.  Even with the breakout he might last til the 9th or 10th round.  He looked great in terms of strikeout and walk rates.  Solid pick who will probably last longer than he should.  180 Ks is hard to come by, and maybe the .312 BABIP comes down and brings his WHIP with it.
• Gil Meche, SP.  Same analysis as Greinke, only slightly less so.  I wouldn't mind having both of these guys in my '09 fantasy rotation, yet they won't require early picks.
• Joakim Soria, RP.  It would not surprise me to see Soria undervalued in a technical sense - a nasty 40-save closer can generate a lot of fantasy value.  Soria in the 6th or 7th round is probably a win for your team, though it's still recommended to wait back and get next year's Soria many rounds later or off the waiver wire.
• Kyle Davies, SP.  I am intrigued by Davies' September - 2.27 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 3.43 K/BB.  He did get to face the Mariners and A's that month, however.  Probably too risky for most mixed leagues.   

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No Restrictions For Greinke

Zack Greinke owners may be concerned that he'll face a 152 inning cap this year, since he pitched 122 in '07.  However, the 24 year-old did toss 183 innings back in '05. 

I asked Royals beat writer Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star whether the team is contemplating shutting him down early.  He said, "Greinke said there are no plans to back him off."  So, I guess that's that unless the team springs it on him a month from now or he shows signs of fatigue.

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Is This The Year For Alex Gordon?

I've ranked Alex Gordon 13th among third basemen, with a .267-18-71-71-16 projection in 522 ABs.  It'd be worth $6.  Gordon's being drafted in the 12th round, 11th among 3Bs.  I don't have a big problem with this (though Kevin Kouzmanoff in the 20th could approximate his value).

This post by Rany Jazayerli explains why Gordon could have something of a breakout this year.  He makes a strong case for Gordon turning doubles into homers as a sophomore.  Suppose Gordon hits .280-25-85-85-16 - that'd put him right up there with Garrett Atkins and Aramis Ramirez!  Ahead of Chipper Jones, Ryan Zimmerman, and Adrian Beltre.  Hopefully Gordon gets off to a decent start and keeps the #3 spot in the order.

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