Injuries

Top Injured Players

Charles T. asks:

As the season starts, could you do the readers a solid and give us a snapshot of all the top fantasy players that are starting the season injured, dinged up or otherwise hurting in some way? And also, maybe some thought on when to expect they'll be back and/or how their season may turn out. I think it would help a lot.

Agreed.  It may be useful now, but it will also be interesting to look back after the season and see whether any of these injuries mattered.

1.  Hanley Ramirez - Tendinitis in right rotator cuff.  Hanley has had shoulder issues for years now, but they never affected his performance.

7.  Ryan Braun - Bruised thumb, strained oblique.  The oblique thing worries me, given how Braun played while dealing with a similar injury at the end of the '08 season.  A down year from Braun would be a big blow to his owners.

14.  Lance Berkman - Biceps tendinitis.  I'm concerned, after paying $35 for Berkman in my keeper auction league.

15.  Chase Utley - November hip surgery.  At one point we thought Utley would miss a month or more, but he's expected to be ready for Opening Day.  I think he will be fine and was probably a bargain in early drafts.

16.  Alex Rodriguez - If you got A-Rod as a third round pick, it might really pay off.  He had hip surgery this month and reports are optimistic.  He could be back before May.

17.  B.J. Upton - He's expected to return April 13th.  Upton had shoulder surgery in November.  He's being drafted as if he'll return to 20 HR power.

18.  Johan Santana - Quickly overcame early March elbow tightness.  We've seen many times with pitchers where a small injury leads to a big one.  Still, Johan's been dominant and healthy for a long time.

20.  Manny Ramirez - He signed late and missed time with a sore hamstring.  With the opt-out carrot dangling, it seems that Manny will manage 500 ABs.

23.  Ichirio Suzuki.  This was way too early to be drafting Ichiro in my opinion.  He's headed to the DL for the first time in his career with a bleeding ulcer.  He doesn't have a timetable yet.

27.  Carlos Lee.  Fractured his pinkie in August.  Seemingly had more than enough time to be back at 100%.

35.  Brian Roberts.  Back spasms and a respiratory infection.  So far, the ailments seem minor.

38. Kevin Youkilis.  Sprained ankle during WBC.  Seems minor.  Still too early to draft him.

41.  Carlos Quentin.  Wrist surgery in September.  If this leads to a slow first half, this pick will look even worse.

43.  Cole Hamels.  Scheduled to make first appearance April 10th after getting an anti-inflammatory injection for a sore elbow.  Hamels threw more pitches than anyone in baseball last year.

49.  Alexei Ramirez.  Deep cut on his knee during spring game; not a big deal.

50.  Chipper Jones.  Withdrew from WBC with a strained right oblique.  As long as he manages 400 elite ABs it'll be worth it.

Other top 100 considerations: Garrett Atkins, Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Chad Billingsley, Joe Mauer

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Alex Rodriguez May Miss Quarter Of Season

12:54pm: I am starting to think that the risk involved makes A-Rod a pretty bad late first/early second round pick.  ESPN's Stephania Bell suggests his recovery time could be longer than ten weeks depending on the details of the injury.  You have to have certainty with your first-round pick.

10:48am: Got a fantasy draft today?  You might want to hold off on that A-Rod pick - Rodriguez's brother told ESPN's Enrique Rojas he'll miss about 10 weeks due to hip surgery.  That'd put his return date around May 15th, so he'd miss a quarter of the season.

Now if we simply multiply A-Rod's projected stats by 3/4, his value goes from $32.04 (fifth overall) to $16.43 (41st among position players).  So if you got the $16.43 and nothing else you'd probably want to draft him around the 4th round.  And even then you'd be taking a risk that he does make it back by May 15th.

However, you would have A-Rod in the DL slot and would conceivably be able to get replacement level production from another third baseman.  For this example we'll use Mike Lowell (ironic, kind of).   Let's combine 139 ABs of Lowell with 417 of A-Rod.

This A-Rod/Lowell hybrid would be projected to hit .287-33-108-104-14 in 556 ABs.  Don't worry about Lowell and his own health issues specifically - use Melvin Mora or some other replacement-level 3B if you want.

Anyway, this hybrid player is worth $25.19, valued at 10th among position players and worthy of late first round consideration.

Problems with this approach: there is a negative value to clogging up a DL spot for a quarter of the year, and we don't know exactly when A-Rod will return or if he'll be 100% when he does.  But in my mind, a late first round/early second round pick of A-Rod is justified if he is indeed to return in mid-May.

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How About Chris Carpenter?

I'm liking the idea of taking a late-round flier on Chris Carpenter this year.  Carp's going at 302.35 (26th round).  We all know what he's capable of, but he hardly pitched in 2007 or 2008.

Carpenter's first outing of the year was strong, and he's bounced back from injury before.  This pick is pure upside despite the tricky nerve condition.

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Razzball: 20 Risky Pitchers

Head on over to Razzball to see their 20 Risky Pitchers For 2009.  They did the math.  Guys I like who are unfortunately top ten injury risks, by their metrics: Ricky Nolasco, Brett Myers, Andy Sonnanstine, and Johnny Cueto.  These guys are typically being drafted late enough where it's worth the gamble.

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Razzball Predicts Pitching Injuries

Very cool post at Razzball, attempting to find predictors of pitching injuries.  They learned that high pitch volume doesn't do much to predict injuries, but a high percentage of breaking pitches thrown does.

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The 3400 Club: 2007 Members

It was interesting to learn that almost the exact same number of pitchers cross the 3400 pitches thrown barrier each year.  In 2008, the group had 19 members.  In 2007, 19 pitchers also passed the benchmark.  Here they are:

1. C.C. Sabathia - 3892
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka - 3865
3. Carlos Zambrano - 3774
4. Jeff Francis - 3771
5. Dan Haren - 3635
6. Brandon Webb - 3623
7. Jake Peavy - 3610
8. Scott Kazmir - 3609
9. Aaron Harang - 3590
10. Gil Meche - 3578
11. Doug Davis - 3574
12. Daniel Cabrera - 3563
13. John Lackey - 3495
14. Dontrelle Willis - 3491
15. Andy Pettitte - 3487
16. Joe Blanton - 3483
17. Javier Vazquez - 3463
18. Bronson Arroyo - 3431
19. Barry Zito - 3411

Let's take Davis out of the mix since he was diagnosed with thyroid cancer the following year.  That leaves 18 pitchers in this group.  10 of the 18 had serious injuries in 2008.  Specifically I'm referring to Dice-K, Zambrano, Francis, Peavy, Kazmir, Harang, Cabrera, Lackey, Willis, and Pettitte.

The eight who emerged unscathed: Sabathia, Haren, Webb, Meche, Blanton, Vazquez, Arroyo, and Zito.  Arroyo did deal with forearm cramps at one point though.  Also keep in mind that sometimes these 3400 pitch seasons often result in issues or even surgery two years later.

There is reason to believe the 2007 class was an anomaly though.  2005 and 2006 data indicated following-year injury rates of 15-25%.

A dozen pitchers tossed 6800 or more pitches across 2007-08:

1. C.C. Sabathia - 7804
2. Gil Meche - 7133
3. Joe Blanton - 7030
4. Brandon Webb - 6980
5. Dan Haren - 6974
6. Matt Cain - 6957
7. Johan Santana - 6943
8. Javier Vazquez - 6925
9. Carlos Zambrano - 6895
10. Roy Halladay - 6890
11. Justin Verlander - 6883
12. Bronson Arroyo - 6867

I like Sabathia as much as the next guy...but he was three pitches away from being the MLB leader in pitches thrown in each of the last two seasons.  At some point pitching far more than any other human has to take a toll.

So what is the application for fantasy baseball?  So many top pitchers cross the 3400 barrier that you can't downgrade all of them.  And the year-after injury rate can vary wildly.  At the end of the day this info may just be a tipping point in a certain decision - maybe now you take a Ted Lilly over a Gil Meche.

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The 3400 Club

Longtime RotoAuthority reader finite24 brought up an interesting topic recently: injury risk the following season for pitchers who threw 3500+ pitches.  I decided to dig more deeply into this topic, pulling the benchmark down to 3400 pitches thrown in a season.  I included playoff pitches, as well as an estimate of minor league pitches thrown by Brett Myers this year.

First up, your 2008 class (19 pitchers):

1. Cole Hamels - 3914
2. C.C. Sabathia - 3912
3. Brett Myers - 3781
4. Jon Lester - 3738
5. Tim Lincecum - 3682
6. A.J. Burnett - 3650
7. Matt Cain - 3606
8. Johan Santana - 3598
9. Roy Halladay - 3560
10. Gil Meche - 3555
11. Joe Blanton - 3547
12. Chad Billingsley - 3543
13. James Shields - 3543
14. Justin Verlander - 3528
15. Ervin Santana - 3526
16. Mark Buehrle - 3490
17. Javier Vazquez - 3462
18. Ryan Dempster - 3450
19. Bronson Arroyo - 3436

How great is the injury risk for these guys?  I'll go into detail on past years' results in future posts, but I'm seeing anywhere from 15 to 61% of those in this "club" deal with significant injury the following year.  Best I can estimate is that anywhere from 3 to 12 of these 19 will be significantly injured in 2009.

My top ten pitchers for the risk averse (did not cross 3400 in '08 or '07 or have a major pitching injury in either year):

1. Roy Oswalt
2. Yovani Gallardo
3. Cliff Lee
4. Derek Lowe
5. Kevin Slowey
6. Ted Lilly
7. Zack Greinke
8. Scott Baker
9. Andy Sonnanstine
10. Joe Saunders

That list gets really tough at the end.  It is a fact of life that you're going to have several injury risks on your staff.

Tomorrow we'll look at those who threw 3400+ pitches in 2007 - a group that responded horribly in 2008.

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The Verducci Effect: 2009

On Monday, Peter Bendix of Beyond The Box Score took a look at The Verducci Effect. The gist of Tom Verducci's theory:

"It's like training for a marathon. You need to build stamina incrementally. The unofficial industry standard is that no young pitcher should throw more than 30 more innings than he did the previous season. It's a general rule of thumb, and one I've been tracking for about a decade. When teams violate the incremental safeguard, it's amazing how often they pay for it."

Bendix notes that five of Verducci's seven most risky young starters had injury or performance problems in 2008.  Bendix identifies seven to worry about for 2009: Jon Lester (9th round), Cole Hamels (4th round), Chad Billingsley (8th round), John Danks (13th round), Mike Pelfrey (18th round), Tim Lincecum (3rd round), and Jair Jurrjens (16th round).

I know there is some debate on whether minor league innings should be included in the calculations, but I prefer to.  Let's identify some other young starters who had big increases from 2007 to 2008.

• Ricky Nolasco: 157.3 IP increase.  He did toss 140 in '06.
• Dana Eveland: 151.3 IP increase.
• Rich Harden: 135.3 IP increase.  Pitched 189.6 innings in '04.
• Todd Wellemeyer: 111.3 IP increase.  Entering contract year.
• Jonathan Sanchez: 82.3 IP increase.
• Zack Greinke: 80.3 IP increase.  Should be noted that he pitched 183 innings in '05.
• Greg Smith: 74.3 IP increase.  He's in Colorado now, anyway.
• Zach Duke: 61.6 IP increase.  He pitched 215.3 innings in '06.
• Clayton Kershaw: 47 IP increase.
• Ervin Santana: 42 IP increase.  Santana may be an exception since he reached 204 innings in '06.
• Manny Parra: 33 IP increase.

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Number Of Pitches Thrown

Let's take a quick-and-dirty look at a simple stat, number of pitches thrown.  Your 2007 leaders:

1. Carlos Zambrano (3689).
2. Dan Haren (3635).
3. Jake Peavy (3610).
4. Scott Kazmir (3609).
5. Aaron Harang (3590).
6. C.C. Sabathia (3581).
7. Gil Meche (3578).
8. Daniel Cabrera (3563).
9. Dontrelle Willis (3491).
10. Jeff Francis (3485).

Interesting list - the majority of these pitchers have missed time due to injury in 2008.  Your '08 leaders:

1. A.J. Burnett (3286).
2. C.C. Sabathia (3267).
3. Matt Cain (3215).
4. Justin Verlander (3214).
5. Gil Meche (3150).
6. Tim Lincecum (3137).
7. Johan Santana (3135).
8. Roy Halladay (3130).
9. Ervin Santana (3129).
10. Cole Hamels (3095).

Sabathia and Meche have really tallied up the pitches, and C.C. has many more coming.  Sabathia's suitors both in real life and fantasy baseball should exercise caution.  He will be going in the second or third round and definitely carries risk.  It wouldn't be surprising to see a few more of these guys go down next year.

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Innings Caps

Let's look at some starters and their possible innings caps this year.  Who might be shut down early?  We'll assume teams will be reluctant to extend their young starters more than 30 innings past the previous year's total.  Of course, the rule may not apply to some of these pitchers. Greinke, for example, tossed 183 innings in '05 and may be able to handle that kind of workload.

Some of these pitchers will switch over to shutdown risks as the playoff picture clears up.

• Cole Hamels.  Cap: 220.  Pace: 230 plus playoffs.
• Jeremy Guthrie.  Cap: 205.3.  Pace: 221.  Shutdown risk.
• Tim Lincecum.  Cap: 207.3.  Pace:  216. Shutdown risk.
• Ervin Santana.  Cap: 214.3.  Pace: 217 plus playoffs.
• Zack Greinke.  Cap: 152.  Pace: 204. Shutdown risk.  I asked Royals beat writer Bob Dutton about this one, so we may have a more definitive answer soon.
• Jon Lester.  Cap: 193.  Pace: 203 plus playoffs.
• Paul Maholm. Cap: 207.6.  Pace: 207.
• Ricky Nolasco.  Cap: 85.  Pace: 205 plus playoffs.
• Scott Olsen. Cap: 206.6.  Pace:  198 plus playoffs.
• Ubaldo Jimenez.  Cap: 215.  Pace: 201.
• Joe Saunders.  Cap: 223.6. Pace: 206 plus playoffs.
• Chad Billingsley.  Cap: 177.  Pace: 201 plus playoffs.
• Nick Blackburn.  Cap: 178.6.  Pace: 195 plus playoffs.
• Edinson Volquez.  Cap: 208.6. Pace: 193.
• Jair Jurrjens.  Cap: 173.3.  Pace:  195. Shutdown risk.
• Gavin Floyd.  Cap: 206.6.  Pace: 194 plus playoffs.
• John Danks.  Cap: 169.  Pace:  190 plus playoffs.
• Jered Weaver.  Cap: 207.  Pace: 184 plus playoffs.
• Johnny Cueto.  Cap: 191.3.  Pace: 188.
• Brian Bannister.  Cap: 215.6.  Pace: 187.
• Greg Smith. Cap: 152. Pace:  187. Shutdown risk.
• Mike Pelfrey.  Cap: 182.6.  Pace: 187 plus playoffs.
• Zach Duke.  Cap: 153.3.  Pace: 184. Shutdown risk.
• Dana Eveland.  Cap: 67.6.  Pace: 182. Shutdown risk.
• John Lannan.  Cap: 189.3.  Pace: 184.
• Edwin Jackson.  Cap: 191.  Pace: 184 plus playoffs.
• Matt Garza.  Cap: 205.  Pace: 190 plus playoffs.
• Jonathan Sanchez.  Cap: 105.6. Pace: 179. Shutdown risk.
• Todd Wellemeyer.  Cap: 110.3. Pace: 186 plus playoffs.
• Manny Parra.  Cap: 163. Pace: 175 plus playoffs.
• Shaun Marcum.  Cap: 189. Pace: 180.
• Armando Galarraga.  Cap: 191. Pace: 186 plus playoffs.
• Luke Hochevar.  Cap: 194.6. Pace: 170.
• Joba Chamberlain.  Cap: 146. Pace: 139 plus playoffs.
• Clay Buchholz.  Cap: 178. Pace: 160 plus playoffs.
• Sean Gallagher.  Cap: 146.3. Pace: 165. Shutdown risk.
• Clayton Kershaw.  Cap:  152. Pace: 164 plus playoffs.
• Scott Kazmir.  Cap: 236.6 . Pace: 171 plus playoffs.
• Wandy Rodriguez. Cap: 212.6. Pace: 156.
• Rich Harden.  Cap: 56.6.  Pace: 171 plus playoffs.

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