Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Don't Forget About Clay Buchholz

Clay Buchholz is in Triple A, but with virtually any of the other 29 organizations he'd be in the Majors.  The Red Sox haven't given any indications of an impending callup, but Buchholz is tearing it up.

I am a huge fan of Buchholz, and he is on most mixed league waiver wires.  If you have room to stash him, do it.  If he's less talented than Joba Chamberlain, it's not by much.

Boston's rotation is deep, but they're a smart organization and Buchholz won't be held down in the minors if a veteran is underperforming.

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Charlie Morton A Sleeper?

24 year-old Braves righty Charlie Morton seemingly came out of nowhere to post a 2.05 ERA in 79 Triple A innings this year.  That included a solid 2.67 K/BB ratio.  Morton hadn't appeared in Baseball America's top 30 Braves prospects since '05.  Can't blame them - he'd never posted an ERA below 4.29.

Reading this article from BA, Morton seems like a guy whose numbers never caught up with his plus stuff.  So far he's made two big league starts, giving up three runs in each.  Because of injuries to Tom Glavine and Mike Hampton, Morton has the Braves' fifth starter job for now.  Glavine could return around the All-Star break, while Hampton is Hampton.  He did make a rehab start recently though.

My point, I guess, is that Morton has flown under the radar for quite some time and has the repertoire to become a quality big leaguer in a hurry.  He's more of an NL-only guy for now but keep an eye on him.

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A Look At John Danks

Is White Sox lefty John Danks for real?  Let's attempt to figure it out.  The early returns:

4 starts
23.2 IP
5.92 IP/start
3.04 ERA
1.01 WHIP
6.08 K/9
2.66 BB/9
2.29 K/BB
6.46 H/9
.250 BABIP
0.00 HR/9
0.0% HR/flyball
48.5% groundball rate (up 13.7% from '07)

Many factors have come together for his hot start, which is comprised of three stellar outings and one bombing at the hands of the Twins. 

Danks' control wasn't horrible last year at 3.5 BB/9, but this is a nice improvement.  He matched his current walk rate in April, July, and August of last year.  It's hard to say if he can keep it up all year.

His .250 BABIP is off his team's .303 mark, but not ridiculously so.  Danks was at .317 last year, but he would've given up more than a hit per inning even adjusting for that.  Best case is probably 8.5 H/9 or so.

It's the home run rate that's truly unsustainable (obviously he will be homered upon at some point).  This was a huge problem for Danks in '07 and his home park didn't help.  The greatly increased groundball rate says he can be at least league average in this regard.

Qualitatively, we know that Danks has a new cutter this year.  In a Baseball America profile from '07, they rated his changeup and curve as above average and noted number two starter potential.  He is only 23 and has often been young for his league.  Maybe '07 was his adjustment period and he really has arrived.

I can see Danks posting a 3.90 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this year.  One consideration is that he was cut off at 139 innings last year and is unlikely to exceed 170 this year.  In a ten or twelve team mixed league Danks is worth using as one of your last starters.  I'm more interested to see what he can do with 200 innings in 2009.

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Watching Kuroda

Why did I wait til this year to get the Extra Innings package?  This is great.  I've been watching Hiroki Kuroda's debut against the Padres in HD.

Granted it's the Padres, but Kuroda is looking nasty.  He's mixing in all kinds of pitches - splitters, sliders, shuutos.  And his heater is consistently a healthy 93mph.  I really like Kuroda's chances of baffling the NL for much of this year.  And even when the scouting reports make their way around, his stuff is legit.  He's going to be one of the more valuable undrafted players of '08.  Consider picking him up now if you can, as he's allowed one hit in his first five innings.  He might be a popular pickup in shallower-type leagues on Saturday.

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2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Mike Jacobs

I am digging the idea of Marlins first baseman Mike Jacobs as a solid sleeper this year.  I have the 27 year-old hitting .268-21-73-63-2 in 486 ABs, just a $0.30 value. 

• It's not hard to see Jacobs in the $6-8 range this year.  If he got 550 ABs, couldn't he do .270-25-90-75-3?  He finished '07 with nine homers in the season's final two months.
• A couple of points from Ron Shandler's book: Jacobs hit more flyballs and improved against lefties last year.  .530 OPS against lefties in '06; .819 in '07.
• Jacobs should bat third for the Marlins.  The lineup still has solid hitters in Hanley Ramirez, Jeremy Hermida, Josh Willingham, and Dan Uggla.  Even Jorge Cantu could be respectable. 
• Jacobs was undrafted in many leagues, so what do you have to lose?

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2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Third Basemen

Sleepers, undervalued, profitable players, call 'em what you will.  In general, some guys who may not be getting enough respect in your mixed league.

• We recently talked about Alex Gordon, who could certainly have fifth-round value this year.
• Edwin Encarnacion looks like a slight bargain as a 15th round pick.  .290-25-90-85-10 wouldn't be out of the question.
• Kevin Kouzmanoff in the 21st round is solid.  He could match EE's upside projection, minus the steals.  The Padres kind of need him to.
• Josh Fields isn't necessarily chopped liver because he's starting the season in Triple A.  It's a long season, a lot can happen.  He could still get 500 ABs and hit 25 homers with 10 swipes.  Same goes for Evan Longoria, minus the swipes.  But when you see everyone going nuts over Longoria remember that guys like Fields, Mark Reynolds, and Kouz can probably match him this year.
• Hank Blalock has plenty of upside in the 20th round. 
• Some feel Ty Wigginton could pop 30 homers (I don't).
• I like Chase Headley as a deep sleeper.

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A Look At Chris Snyder

Longtime reader finite24 has been talking up Chris Snyder quite a bit recently, and the Arizona catcher deserves a closer look.

I have the 27 year-old hitting .252-14-54-44-0 in 375 ABs, a $3.64 value.  That's about what he did in '07 except for a few less ABs.  Let's dig a bit deeper though.

• Snyder hit .262-10-37-25-0 in the season's final three months (221 ABs).  It makes you wonder if .262-20-74-50-0 is possible; that'd be worth $10.
• There are signs Bob Melvin might move Snyder up from the eight-hole in the lineup.
• Snyder is clearly ahead of Miguel Montero on the depth chart this year.  Plus, Montero is a bit behind this year because of a broken finger.
• Snyder's hitting .342/.419/.842 with five homers this spring in 38 ABs.  That's .455 above his career SLG of .387, which indicates he will have a better than normal season.
• It's hard not to like Snyder; he's flying under the radar and is a fine endgame catcher.

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More Good Vibes On Furcal

As someone who has drafted Rafael Furcal early (sixth round) and often, I'm pleased to read articles like this.  So many things going for him: contract year, return to health, spring SLG more than .200 over his career mark. 

Furcal is my fifth-ranked shortstop, behind Reyes, Ramirez, Rollins, and Jeter.  But two things on that.  First, Jeter goes too early so I'd rather have Furcal.  Second, I fully expect Furcal to beat my .280-11-54-99-28 in 589 ABs projection.  Lots of people are taking Troy Tulowitzki before Furcal, and I think it's a mistake.

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2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Shane Victorino

Recently a friend suggested to me that Shane Victorino looked like a pretty good sleeper.  I agreed - I've got him at .280-15-63-91-29 in 550 ABs.  Maybe not a five-category guy, but a well-rounded addition to the middle of your outfield in the eighth round.

Then I looked more closely at Victorino's 2007.  Not only did he have to battle with Jayson Werth somewhat for playing time, but a calf strain limited him to only 47 ABs in the season's final two months.  This year, it's Geoff Jenkins who will have to deal with Werth.  Victorino has center field all to himself with the departure of Aaron Rowand.

I got to wondering how Victorino might perform if he was healthy for all of '08 and performed at his '07 pace.  I'll just wipe away the final two months and look at the first four.  The result:

614 ABs
174 hits
.284 average
17 HR
63 RBI
108 Runs
48 steals
$27.09 value
10th most valuable position player; 3rd-ranked OF

Whoa!  Obviously we can't pencil Victorino in for these numbers.  But the potential for a monster fantasy season is there, and I'd advise grabbing Victorino in the seventh or eighth round of a 12 team 5x5 mixed league.  Can you think of anyone else drafted outside of the first 90 picks who could have first or second-round value this year? 

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McLouth Not A Lock To Start Yet

For some silly reason, Nate McLouth and Nyjer Morgan are said to be in a "dead heat" for Pittsburgh's center field job.

This is a situation I'll be monitoring on RotoAuthority, as McLouth is a favorite power/speed sleeper of mine.  I have him at .263-15-48-74-22 in 450 ABs, a $4.42 value.  But if McLouth gets 550 ABs, he could approach 20 HR and 30 swipes, helping him outrank bigger outfield names like Jason Bay and Vernon Wells.  Hell, I have Manny Ramirez at just $10.11, a function of a 479 AB projection.  It just shows you how large of a factor playing time is in preseason projections.

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