Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Undervalued Players: Hitters

Here's my list of undervalued hitters for 2009. Whether they're sleepers or not, I think these players will outproduce their draft positions.

• Chase Utley, 2B.  Second round?  Yes please.  My projection only calls for 525 ABs.
• Matt Kemp, OF.  Fourth round is pretty early, but a strong AVG, 20 HR, and 30 SB puts him in the running for the top 5 outfielders.  And who's to say a power breakout isn't on the way for the 24 year-old?
• Jay Bruce, OF.  I think he can jack 30 HR and steal 10+.  I'll take that in the ninth round.
• Chris Davis, 1B/3B.  Sixth round, still like him.  If he hits 30 HR with 100 RBI you won't regret buying the hype.
• Mike Napoli, C.  14th round, 20+ HR from the catcher spot.  I like him even with a .248 AVG.
• Joey Votto, 1B.  If you're going for a 1B in this 6-7th round tier, go for Votto's upside (and speed).
• Nelson Cruz, OF.  Obviously I'd prefer him to go in the 20th round rather than the 11th.  But the guy has a shot at 25 HR and 15 SB.
• Jayson Werth, OF.  Similar story to Cruz, but he's going a little later in drafts.
• Ryan Doumit, C.  Pretty solid starting catcher for the 11th round.
• Derek Jeter, SS.  He's not what he once was, but he'll help you and is going around the 9th.
• Matt Wieters, C.  Hype shouldn't necessarily scare you off.  Give me 375 ABs of Wieters and a month of replacement level and it was easily worth an 11th round pick.
• Kelly Johnson, 2B.  As an 18th round pick he still doesn't get proper respect.
• Mark Reynolds, 3B.  Does .259-28-85-85-8 work for you?  That'd be worth more than a lot of 3Bs going before him (Reynolds goes in the 22nd).
• Adam Jones, OF.  I'll board this bandwagon, love the power/speed types and he's going in the 16th.
• Felipe Lopez, 2B.  Any 2B power/speed guy deserves better than the 27th.  And it's always nice to play your home games in Arizona.
• Ramon Hernandez, C.  Nice value in the 22nd round, moving to Cincy.
• Ryan Spilborghs, OF.  Double digit power speed possibility, undrafted in most leagues.
• Adam LaRoche, 1B.  Maybe the cheapest 25 HR you'll find on draft day.  Can he shake the slow starts for his contract year?
• Justin Upton, OF.  My projection for him isn't amazing, but can't you just see him going crazy?  It's only a 19th round pick.
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C.  Another where my gut feel beats my projection.  Might be ready for a breakthrough.

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Max Scherzer Concerns

Should we be worried about D'Backs starter Max Scherzer?  Last year, he had a monthlong bout with shoulder inflammation.  Already this year his arm did not feel great when he started throwing, according to MLB.com's Steve Gilbert.  Nick Piecoro talked to Arizona GM Josh Byrnes, who said nothing's changed structurally with Scherzer in comparing his June and December MRIs. 

Byrnes isn't concerned (at least publicly) and projects 170 innings for Scherzer.  Much like Joba Chamberlain (more on him in a future post), Scherzer's fantasy value is tied to his very unpredictable innings total.

Scherzer is being drafted in the 16th round on average, so drafters respect the injury concerns.  Still, that's after a guy like Aaron Cook, who shouldn't have any mixed league value in 2009. 

Say Scherzer reaches that 170 IP mark.  I have him for a 3.83 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and K/9 over 10.  He'd be worth $13.38, more than Edinson Volquez and about the same as Ricky Nolasco, Jered Weaver, Ted Lilly, and Zack Greinke.

Drop Scherzer to 140 IP, though, and he's down to $8.11 (about where I have Hiroki Kuroda and Johnny Cueto).  Here's the thing though.  Scherzer's not like Mark Buehrle, who is worth $7 because he can rack up some counting stats across 210 IP.  Scherzer, like Joba, burns bright.  If he's healthy he will probably pitch well, and if he's hurt he'll be on the DL.  If that's the case, you can sub in a tolerable 60 innings off the waiver wire and end up with good value overall.  The only risk is that he's moved to the bullpen.  For a 15th or 16th round pick, that's a risk worth taking.

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Kenshin Kawakami Examined

One pitcher I haven't paid much attention to this year is Kenshin Kawakami of the Braves.  Ditto for Koji Uehara, but I'm less intrigued with him pitching in the AL East.

Mock drafters are taking Kawakami in the 19th round.  By comparison, Hiroki Kuroda went in the 25th round last year.  So there is increased awareness for mid-level Japanese import starters.

To project Kawakami, we head over to BaseballProjection.com, home of CHONE.  They project Kawakami for a 3.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8 wins, and 113 Ks in 123 innings.  Looks like the makings of a sleeper, especially since the Braves probably are looking to get 180+ innings out of him.  It will be interesting to see a few other projection systems weigh in on Kawakami, who posted a 2.30 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 117.3 innings in Japan last year.

Scouting-wise there is reason for skepticism.  Here's what Keith Law had to say:

Kawakami posted solid strikeout rates in Japan, but without a clear out pitch he doesn't project to miss as many bats in MLB. His fastball is fringe-average, and he'll likely have to change his approach and pitch more with his offspeed stuff. Like all pitchers coming from Japan, he'll also have to adjust to the larger baseball used here.

So we shouldn't count on that projected 8.27 K/9.  Law believes Kawakami will be HR-prone as well.  CHONE has Kawakami's HR rate at 1.02 per nine.  Law believes he will be prone to the four-bagger, so it may be safer to put him down for 1.1 or 1.2.

19th round, though...go for it.  He's a nice guy to snag as the sixth starter on your fantasy team.

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Napoli Could DH

MLB.com's Lyle Spencer continues to beat the drum for the Angels to give Mike Napoli significant time at designated hitter in 2009.  He says Mike Scioscia's stance has softened on the idea recently and it will be discussed during Spring Training.

With 406 ABs, we have Napoli as an $18 player given his catcher eligibility.  We're currently ranking him 5th among catchers due to a projected 26 HR.  Bump that to 500 ABs, though, and Napoli easily passes Joe Mauer as fantasy baseball's most valuable backstop.  His only negative would be a .250 AVG, easily overcome by his other stats.

Napoli is currently being drafted in the 15th round, 10th among catchers.  In a recent Mock Draft I did, I was chilling and waiting to take Napoli in the 14th or 15th.  Instead, some guy using AutoSelect took him in the 11th.  Not sure if it means anything.  MDC says Napoli has been picked as early as the 8th round.  If you become dead set on Napoli, and that's a dangerous thing to do with any player, you might have to plan to take him around the 11th or 12th round.  Last year I reached on Rafael Furcal, Corey Hart, and Matt Kemp, and it paid off for the two outfielders.  It is possible to get too reliant on Average Draft Position data.

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100-199 ABs In 2008

Finishing up our series, let's look at players who received 100-199 big league ABs in 2008.  ADP data from MDC.

• Travis Hafner - 198 ABs.  He's an 18th round pick following a worthless 2008.  Hafner had arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October.  I'm inclined to roll the dice on him late.
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia - 198 ABs.  Salty's path to playing time improved slightly when Gerald Laird was dealt.  With 350 ABs, he could be worth a few bucks.
• Miguel Montero - 184 ABs.  Montero could be worth a few bucks if he finds a starting gig via trade.  The Red Sox are known to have interest.
• Jorge Posada - 168 ABs.  Posada had shoulder surgery in July.  If he bounces back, he's very solid in the 17th round.
• Brandon Wood - 150 ABs.  Could pop 25 HR and steal 10 bags with a .250 average if he plays full-time.
• J.R. Towles - 146 ABs.  A year ago Towles and Geovany Soto were the two big catcher sleepers.  Don't give up on Towles yet, as he still has 10/10 potential.  The Astros haven't brought in anyone of note to catch.
• Rafael Furcal - 143 ABs.  As a sixth round pick, drafters certainly aren't treating him like he missed most of the season.  This is why it's comforting to get one of the Big Three shortstops.
• Russell Branyan - 132 ABs.  The Mariners want to give him more playing time than ever.  Could flirt with 30 HR with 450 ABs.
• Ryan Freel - 131 ABs.  If he can stay healthy for 400 ABs he should swipe 20.
• Daniel Murphy - 131 ABs.  Quiet 10/10 candidate with 400 ABs, which he should get unless the Mets sign someone.
• Brett Gardner - 127 ABs.  Even in a half season could steal 20.
• Nelson Cruz - 115 ABs.  With 500 ABs you might be looking at 30 HR, 15 steals.  He's being drafted in the 13th round now.
• Nick Johnson - 109 ABs.  More of an OBP league sleeper if anything.
• Chris Dickerson - 102 ABs.  If the Reds don't sign anyone, Dickerson could flirt with 20/20 (with a poor AVG).

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200-299 ABs In 2008

Recently we looked at hitters who had 300-400 ABs in 2008 in an attempt to find some sleepers.  Let's look at another batch: those who had 200-299 ABs in '08.  All ADP data from Mock Draft Central.

• Chris Davis - 295 ABs.  We love Davis.  His ADP has already moved from 105.25 when we wrote about him on December 20th to 93.16 today.
• Elijah Dukes - 276 ABs.  You can draft Dukes in the 19th round.  This is a guy who could flirt with 30/30 if he can manage to stay healthy all year.  Even in the Nats' crowded outfield he shouldn't spend much time benched when healthy.
• Eugenio Velez - 275 ABs.  Could be a 30 SB guy if he plays full-time.
• Victor Martinez - 266 ABs.  Seemed healthy in September; I see no reason why he can't bounce back to .300-20-90 this year.  He's going in the seventh round though.
• Ian Stewart - 266 ABs.  A 19th round pick currently, Stewart could have a 20-90 season if he manages 550 ABs.  Problem is, Garrett Atkins and Todd Helton remain on the club.
• Jerry Hairston Jr. - 261 ABs.  He's eligible at shortstop and outfield.  If healthy, Hairston could pop 10 HR, steal 20, and score 80+.
• Jed Lowrie - 260 ABs.  As currently projected, Lowrie doesn't look like a good mixed league pick even with 550 ABs.
• Hank Blalock - 258 ABs.  Eligible at both corners, could return to 25 HR days.  Like others in this group, a big-time health risk.  Maybe the contract year will help.
• Juan Rivera - 256 ABs.  Finally healthy, he's a threat for 20 homers.
• Michael Cuddyer - 249 ABs. Like Rivera, Cuddyer's fantasy rep stems from one good year (2006).
• Mike Fontenot - 243 ABs.  Playing time would've been easier to come by without Aaron Miles in the mix, but Fontenot could get a few reps at shortstop as well as second base.  The little guy may have 20 HR pop.
• Emmanuel Burriss - 240 ABs.  Another Giants 30 SB threat in the infield.
• Brandon Moss - 236 ABs.  The Pirates figure to give him every chance to establish himself as a regular.  He did hit 5 HR in August, so 20 bombs seems feasible.
• Ryan Spilborghs - 233 ABs.  With Willy Taveras out of the picture, center field is Spilborghs' to lose.  How about a .300 AVG with 15 HR and 15 SBs?
• Mike Napoli - 227 ABs.  We love Napoli. 
• Eric Byrnes - 206 ABs.  Despite a lost season, Byrnes is still a 12th round pick.  Memories of that beautiful 21 HR, 50 SB season in '07.  He will have to earn his playing time this year.
• Aaron Hill - 205 ABs.  Hill expects to be ready for Opening Day after losing '08 to a concussion.  Worth a flyer in the 20th round
• Jeff Clement - 203 ABs.  Here's a potential 20 HR catcher we're not hearing much about.  He's going in the 21st round.

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Your #1 Sleeper

Today we pose a question to the readers: who is your #1 sleeper for 2009?  Hopefully your league-mates aren't reading.  Sleeper is defined in the loose sense - just a guy who is greatly undervalued, in your opinion.  For example, we all knew who Tim Lincecum was heading into '08 but he was still a great sleeper pick.

I'll kick it off with my own #1 sleeper: Nelson Cruz of the Rangers.  Cruz had a ridiculous 2008.  He hit .342/.429/.695 in 103 Triple A games, nailing 37 HR and swiping 24 bags.  He did just as well in 115 ABs for the big club - .330/.421/.609 with 7 HR and 3 SBs.

Cruz has the potential to jack 30 HR for the Rangers in 2009.  He attempted a steal 25% of the time he was on first base in the minors, so the potential for double digit swipes looks strong too.  He'll join current Texas mashers Chris Davis and Josh Hamilton.

Cruz has his flaws - he's 28, and he'd spent plenty of time in Triple A prior to '08.  And he didn't do anything with the 437 ABs the Rangers gave him prior to 2008.  He also used to strike out quite a bit.  But the guy's being drafted in the 16th round - he's a risk worth taking.

Let's open up the floor to the readers.  Who is your #1 sleeper (you only get one) for 2009, and why?

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Mike Napoli: Top Five Catcher?

One fantasy baseball issue to follow closely for 2009 is the playing time of Angels catcher Mike Napoli.  Napoli got only 227 ABs for the Angels in '08, putting up a massive .273-20-49-39-7 line in that time.  He missed a month due to a shoulder injury, but even without that he would've projected for about 320 ABs. 

When a catcher shows that kind of massive home run power (and speed!), fantasy leaguers get delirious thinking what he could do with 400 ABs.  Reasonably, he'd have a shot at 30 HR, which would probably lead all catchers.  In a November mailbag, MLB.com's Lyle Spencer discussed the idea of having Napoli spend some time at DH, getting him 500-600 ABs.  Let's not get greedy - 400 would be great.  If Napoli is healthy, there's no reason Jeff Mathis should be stealing an abnormal amount of playing time.  The Angels are rumored to be in on various corner outfield/infield types, which would presumably leave less of a chance for Napoli to DH.

If Napoli gets those 400 ABs, he has a legitimate shot at being a top five catcher (and that allows for his AVG to drop under .260).  He is being drafted 11th among catchers, in the 19th round.  One health issue to monitor - he had arthroscopic shoulder surgery on October 31st.

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Undervalued Royals

When I go digging for sleepers/undervalued players, I often look to the Royals.  They're just a low-profile club and have been for years.  Some players to consider for 2009:

• Alex Gordon, 3B.  Gordon had a slight gain in slugging and a large gain in walk rate.  Sadly, he attempted fewer steals per times on first base.  He's progressed slower than we'd hoped, but maybe next year he puts up the .280-30-100-90-15 line.
• Billy Butler, 1B.  He slugged .476 after the break, flashing 20 HR potential.  He needs to improve against righties though.
• Mike Aviles, 2B/SS.  Eligible at two crucial positions, and didn't slump much as the season went on.  No one thinks he's a .325 hitter but he still looks like a solid late option.
• Ryan Shealy/Kila Ka'aihue, 1B.  Nothing amazing, but if one of these guys locks down a full-time job he could pop 20 HR.
• Zack Greinke, SP.  Even with the breakout he might last til the 9th or 10th round.  He looked great in terms of strikeout and walk rates.  Solid pick who will probably last longer than he should.  180 Ks is hard to come by, and maybe the .312 BABIP comes down and brings his WHIP with it.
• Gil Meche, SP.  Same analysis as Greinke, only slightly less so.  I wouldn't mind having both of these guys in my '09 fantasy rotation, yet they won't require early picks.
• Joakim Soria, RP.  It would not surprise me to see Soria undervalued in a technical sense - a nasty 40-save closer can generate a lot of fantasy value.  Soria in the 6th or 7th round is probably a win for your team, though it's still recommended to wait back and get next year's Soria many rounds later or off the waiver wire.
• Kyle Davies, SP.  I am intrigued by Davies' September - 2.27 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 3.43 K/BB.  He did get to face the Mariners and A's that month, however.  Probably too risky for most mixed leagues.   

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Josh Johnson's New Ligament Works

Check out this blog post from Marlins beat writer Juan C. Rodriguez.  It seems that Josh Johnson is throwing several mph faster post-Tommy John than he was before.  He gave up three runs in five innings in his first start back last night.  He also whiffed six and walked no one.

All the experts and injury gurus will tell you to avoid Johnson this year, and that's a logical stance.  But in mixed leagues with deep benches and unlimited transactions...you don't need to be so discerning.  Just make the move, maybe bench him for a few starts if you feel conservative.  At any rate, Johnson is a quality sleeper for '09.

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