Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Roger Bernadina A Sleeper?

Nationals outfielder Roger Bernadina was definitely not on fantasy radars entering the season, but at this point he merits mixed league consideration.  Bernadina is hitting .291-5-23-15-6 in 158 at-bats and has been playing regularly.  Over a 550 at-bat season his work projects at .291-17-80-52-21.  The entire line reeks of small sample size, but you have to figure he'll pick up his runs scored pace.

ZiPS is not yet on board, predicting just a .259/.319/.367 line the rest of the way.  Strong work in 245 plate appearances between Triple A and the bigs so far has not been enough to change the projection model's mind.  Baseball Prospectus says Bernadina would have to play at his 90th percentile projection to slug .442.

Scouting-wise, Bernadina ranked just 22nd among Nationals prospects before the season.  They said he has "plus-plus speed and average raw power."  So it appears that his 20-steal speed is for real, but his 15-20 home run power is in question.  For what it's worth Bernadina slugged .434 in May and sits at .507 in June, with five home runs, seven doubles, and two triples within those 167 PAs.

Bottom line: grab Bernadina as a speed source who won't kill you in the other categories, and hope his mild power breakout holds up.

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C.J. Wilson Worth A Look

We've seen relievers convert back to starting successfully in recent years, with examples such as Ryan Dempster and Justin Duchscherer.  Is the Rangers' C.J. Wilson the latest success story?

Today Wilson allowed no runs with nine strikeouts and two walks against the Blue Jays, so he's probably on the fantasy radar now.  While the Jays project in the lower half for AL offenses, the performance is still impressive.  In relief Wilson was a big strikeout/groundball guy, so perhaps some of that will carry over to starting.  WHIP may be an issue, as he's always walked his fair share.  On the flip side perhaps he can keep the hits down more than the average hurler.  Wilson may be worth trying against the Indians next time out.

Remember, you can't afford to wait for a sufficient sample size.  If someone is interesting, pick him up and ask questions later.  Those who hesitated missed out on Kendry Morales, Ben Zobrist, and Aaron Hill last year.

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Undervalued Hitters For 2010

Consider this my sleeper hitters post.  I use the terms "sleeper" and "undervalued" interchangeably, while others feel that sleepers need to be well under the radar.  At any rate, I feel that these hitters will provide a profit for you in 2010 given their draft position.  I've included the player's average draft round in parentheses.

• Brian McCann (4) - $24.25.  I don't see why Victor Martinez should be drafted two rounds earlier than McCann.
• Nelson Cruz (6) - $19.60.  A potential four-category stud, still undervalued following his breakout season.
• Joey Votto (3) - $19.23.  I believe Votto's production will be close to the typical first-round first base guys, aside from Albert Pujols.
• Grady Sizemore (3) - $18.83.  Fantasy leaguers are shortsighted...Sizemore is still a four-category monster.
• Matt Wieters (8) - $17.75.  He can potentially match McCann this year.
• Carlos Lee (6) - $15.89.  Maybe he's boring, but I'll gladly take .300-30-110 at this point in the draft.
• Mike Napoli (14) - $15.41.  I still don't think Napoli's ability to go .261-23-61-62-5 in 375 ABs is properly valued.  Similar story with Geovany Soto, who should be better.
• Andrew McCutchen (8) - $14.45.  There's good potential for 15 HR, 30 SB, and 100 R here.
• Juan Pierre (19) - $13.31.  Same old Pierre, this time with 625+ ABs.  Could mean .290, 100 R, 50 SB.  Rajai Davis, while a good value, goes five rounds earlier and has less of a track record.  Julio Borbon is another sleeper speedster.
• Jay Bruce (11) - $11.90.  I'm looking for .269-32-91-85-8 out of Bruce, but the ceiling is higher.
• Asdrubal Cabrera (13) - $10.71.  Could be an all-around 2B or SS, with a line like .290-10-78-97-17 in 600 ABs.
• Chris Coghlan (19) - $10.42.  You'd think a ROY would buy more respect.  Coghlan could provide sneaky value at .294-12-74-96-18.
• Vladimir Guerrero (12) - $10.22.  With only 525 ABs, too.  Vlad could give you .300-25-90 if you don't mind tying up the DH spot.
• Everth Cabrera (20) - $8.77.  Has a shot at 100 R, 40 SB.  I also consider Alcides Escobar undervalued. 
• Gordon Beckham (8) - $8.71.  Could be an all-around contributor, and will even gain 2B eligibility.
• Chris Davis (14) - $8.60.  Back aboard the Davis train?  Eight rounds later than '09, it's worth gambling that he'll reach 30 HR and 90 RBI.  Garrett Jones could provide similar production and qualifies at OF too.
• Adam LaRoche (17) - $8.50.  Chase Field inflates left-handed home runs by 15%.
• Erick Aybar (17) - $6.63.  Don't forget Aybar when you're looking for a shortstop; he could hit .290, swipe 20 bags, and score over 100 as the Angels' leadoff man.
• Corey Hart (16) - $5.89.  Who's to say Hart won't return to his 20/20 glory days?  You're not risking much.
• Kelly Johnson (26) - $5.84.  Perenially undervalued, Johnson moves to Chase and should exceed 10 HR/10 SB.
• Franklin Gutierrez (22) - $5.79.  Though lauded for his defense, Guti could exceed 15/15.
• Cody Ross (26) - $5.62.  One of the cheaper 20 HR, 90 RBI guys you'll find.
• Others I like: Martin Prado, Travis Snider, Kyle Blanks, Conor Jackson, Billy Butler, Carlos Gonzalez, Miguel Montero, and Cameron Maybin.  Who are your undervalued/sleeper hitters for 2010?

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2010 Sleepers: Julio Borbon

Rangers outfielder Julio Borbon is currently being picked in the 16th round on average, and he could be quite a bargain for your fantasy team.

According to this AP story, Borbon will not be shielded against lefties in 2010.  He is penciled in as the Rangers' center fielder and leadoff man.  Say I put him down for 600 ABs, not atypical for a leadoff man.  In that case Borbon would have a projected fantasy line of .293-5-53-95-40.  It'd be a very Juan Pierre-like line (Pierre is a huge sleeper himself, since he'll play everyday and lead off for the White Sox).

Certain speedsters are not getting proper respect this year.  Borbon, Pierre, Rajai Davis, Everth Cabrera, and Elvis Andrus are all projected to swipe 40+ bags and score 80+ runs, but they're going in the 13th round or later.

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2010 Sleepers: Colby Lewis

The more I hear about Rangers starter Colby Lewis, the more I like him as a 2010 fantasy option.  His career MLB work is ugly: a 6.71 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in 217.3 innings.  Fantasy owners don't care about him; he's not being drafted among the top 389 picks according to Mock Draft Central.  So why is he a quality sleeper?

Lewis spent the last two years in Japan, and he was awesome there.  His 2009 performance: 2.96 ERA, 9.49 K/9, and a 0.7 BB/9.  That's a 9.79 K/BB ratio.  In 2008 it was a 2.68 ERA, 9.25 K/9, 1.37 BB/9, and a 6.78 K/BB.

ESPN's Tim Kurkjian has a great article explaining Lewis' transformation in Japan.  He gained a new mindset, delivery, and cutter in his time there, and this winter a dozen MLB teams were dialing up his agent.  It's not common for an American player to return from Japan and get $5MM.  Lewis is still only 30 years old.

How do the projection systems feel about Lewis?

• CHONE: 3.99 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.08 K/9, 2.05 BB/9
• ZiPS: 4.39 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 6.53 K/9, 2.60 BB/9
• PECOTA: 3.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.04 K/9, 2.36 BB/9
• HQ: 4.52 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 6.71 K/9, 3.19 BB/9

Quite a range, with two of the four projection systems suggesting Lewis could be quite valuable in any league.  As is the case with most mixed league sleepers, you've got little to lose.

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Post-Hype Sleepers: Francisco Liriano

There was a time when Francisco Liriano was on a gravy train with biscuit wheels.  He posted a 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 144 strikeouts, and a strong groundball rate in 121 innings in 2006, his rookie season.  His stuff was ridiculous - a fastball averaging 94.7 mph and a nasty slider, coming from the left side.

But Liriano's elbow started barking in August of '06, and by November he was on the table for Tommy John surgery. 

The Twins had Liriano up for three ugly starts in April of '08, but then had him start his next 20 in the minors.  He pitched well but the Twins waited until August 3rd to recall him, causing some to suggest the team was trying to avoid Super Two status.  Liriano was sharp over those final two months - 2.74 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9.  Warnings signs we might've missed: his fastball velocity hadn't returned, and he faced terrible offenses in 7 of the 11 starts.

Fantasy touts, myself included, figured Liriano was ready to return contribute in 2009, even if he didn't return to greatness.  I liked him for a sub-4.00 ERA, a sub-1.30 WHIP, and plenty of Ks.  He was being drafted in the 6th round - typically too rich for my blood, but not indefensible.  Liriano was a huge bust though - 5.80 ERA, tons of walks, hits, and home runs, and a 91.7 mph average fastball.  David Golebiewski of FanGraphs says Liriano wasn't as bad as his numbers, but his stuff was still way off.

Here in 2010, Liriano is being drafted at 280.80 - the 24th round in a 12-team mixed league.  At present, he's a risk-free choice.  You're not risking much even if he moves up in draft position over the next couple months.  And he will move up - Liriano dazzled in the Dominican Winter League and figures to do the same in Spring Training. He says his velocity, location, and slider are back and he feels like he did in '06.  Take him in the 15th round or later and see if the statement holds up.

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David Purcey Being Overlooked?

Blue Jays starter David Purcey was not drafted in most mixed leagues this year.  He was on my radar on draft day but completely slipped my mind. Fortunately, I was able to grab him in a bunch of leagues yesterday after his 7 IP, 2 ER performance against the Tigers.  What's Purcey's outlook for '09?

Projections for Purcey suggest nothing special...ERA under 5.00 with a decent K rate, that's it.  But let's take a closer look.

Purcey, a southpaw, will turn 27 in April.  His Triple A numbers last year: 117 innings, 2.69 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9. His Major League numbers in '08: 5.54 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9.  Who's to say he can't find the good control he showed at Triple A?  Purcey seems like a guy who can, at the least, give you some cheap Ks.  Baseball Prospectus likens Purcey to Bruce Hurst circa 1985, which is a good thing.

Back in February David Golebiewski profiled Purcey for FanGraphs and liked what he saw as well.

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An Eye On Chad Tracy

MLB.com D'Backs beat writer Steve Gilbert has been saying it for a while now - "Chad Tracy is going to have a very good season."  As if on cue, Tracy went 3 for 4 with a home run on Opening Day yesterday.  This was after a .367/.424/.567 spring performance.

Tracy is a nice sleeper while it lasts.  He wasn't impressive in 273 ABs last year.  Quietly, though, projection systems like him for a .340 OBP and .450-.460 SLG.  And projection systems don't know about Tracy's ordeal with microfracture knee surgery, which is finally over.  He's the team's cleanup hitter, and maybe that guy who hit .308-27-72-73-3 in 503 ABs in '05 is still in there somewhere.

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How About Brad Penny?

I've drafted in two mixed leagues so far this year, and one player who was not chosen in either was Brad Penny.  He's looking like a nice pickup if you have the bench space.  Penny was impressive yesterday, touching 95 mph.  Amalie Benjamin's article notes that Boston won't need a fifth starter until April 12th, so Penny may be held back a bit.  Maybe he'll have the typical Penny big first half, and you can slot in John Smoltz thereafter.  Perhaps that's Boston's plan too.

I decided I like Penny a touch more than Clay Buchholz, who makes for a solid post-hype sleeper.  Buchholz's problem is that he is further down the depth chart than Penny or Smoltz.

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Undervalued Pitchers

Here are some pitchers I feel are being undervalued this year.

• Javier Vazquez.  By now the annual Vazquez recs must be getting tiresome.  But he's moved back to the NL and is good for 200 Ks, double digit wins, and a solid WHIP at the least.
• Rich Harden.  He's worth quite a bit by himself if he manages 135 IP.  Add in replacement level pitching while he's out and you'll get a ton out of the roster spot.  Joba Chamberlain, Max Scherzer, and Randy Johnson fit this mold as well and come recommended.
• Jonathan Broxton.  The closing job is all his and he should strike out 85+ with 35+ saves and strong ratios.
• Yovani Gallardo.  Very solid as a 10th round pick, and I'm only projecting 180 IP.
• Matt Cain.  Sooner or later the wins will come.  The Ks and ERA are already here.
• Ted Lilly.  MDC has him as a 17th round pick, but he's the same old reliable Lilly.  Goes earlier in ESPN leagues.
• Brett Myers.  Goes especially late in ESPN leagues.
• Derek Lowe.  Too boring for my fantasy owners.
• Kenshin Kawakami.  Fear of the unknown?  The Braves' Japanese import is barely being drafted.  He should help in WHIP at the very least.
• Zack Greinke.  A bargain in Yahoo leagues, less so in ESPN based on an ADP comparison.
• Jered Weaver.
• Ricky Nolasco.  Happy to be on this bandwagon.
• Heath Bell.
• Kevin Slowey.  Not every day you find a 1.21 WHIP in the 16th round.
• Aaron Harang.
• Joey Devine.
• Matt Capps.
• Gil Meche.  Ignored for being a Royal.
• Scott Baker.
• Chad Qualls.
• Andy Sonnanstine.
• Frank Francisco.
• Joel Hanrahan.

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