Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Finding This Year's Starting Pitching Sleepers

Of fantasy baseball's top 36 starting pitchers from 2012 (according to ESPN's Player Rater), 21 of them were drafted outside of the top 100 players (according to Mock Draft Central ADP data from March 2012).  That's a solid 58% of your number three or better fantasy starters, all drafted in the ninth round or later.  What do these guys have in common?  How can we identify them for 2013?

Low Strikeout Guys (Kyle Lohse, Wade Miley, R.A. Dickey, Jason Vargas, Johnny Cueto, Matt Harrison)

All of these pitchers had a K/9 at or below 6.1 in 2011.  It always stings to draft a guy like this, knowing he'll net you just 110-130 Ks and hurt your all-important K/9 in leagues with innings caps.  And since they don't miss bats, these pitchers are always at the mercy of hits allowed.  It's hard to trust strong ratios from these types, though Lohse and Harrison have now done it two years running.  Your best bet among low strikeout starters is to target someone who at least has the stuff for strikeouts and/or has done it in the past, such as Cueto heading into 2012.  Jeremy Hellickson, Ricky Romero, and Wandy Rodriguez are a few examples of pitchers who were players with low K/9s in 2012 who could rebound or take a step forward in that department.  If you're going to draft a low strikeout guy with no real K potential, at least aim for one with great control and a nice groundball rate, like Tim Hudson.

Old Guys (R.A. Dickey, Hiroki Kuroda, A.J. Burnett, Ryan Dempster, Ryan Vogelsong, Kyle Lohse)

Kuroda, in particular, had to have been going in the 15th round because he was 37 years old.  The others had additional issues, whereas Kuroda's biggest secondary concern was a move to the AL East.  Fantasy owners still don't trust him, as he's going in the 14th.  All of these players can still be had outside of the top 100 picks with the exception of Dickey, who at 91 still has one of the higher ADPs you'll see for a reigning Cy Young award winner.  I'd take a shot with him at that spot.

Bad Ratio Guys (A.J. Burnett, Ryan Dempster, Jason Vargas, Max Scherzer, Homer Bailey, Gio Gonzalez, Jonathon Niese)

In a league where only 70-odd starting pitchers are drafted, it's hard to feel good about taking someone coming off a season in which he had an ERA around five or a WHIP over 1.40.  Heck, Alex McCrum was just telling you that even a WHIP in the 1.20s isn't anything special these days.

That's where an ERA estimator like SIERA comes in.  Niese posted a tidy 3.42 SIERA against a 4.40 ERA in 2011, and sure enough, his ERA came down the following year.  Based on 2012 numbers, SIERA gives love to Marco Estrada, Mike Fiers, Jeff Samardzija, Alex Cobb, Dillon Gee, Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Pat Corbin, Carlos Villanueva, Edwin Jackson, and Ian Kennedy.  There are some very talented pitchers in that list who are going late in part because of ERAs around 4.00 in 2012.  SIERA didn't love the 2012 seasons from Jon Lester, Tim Lincecum, Mike Minor, or Derek Holland, but they're also intriguing bounceback or breakout candidates.  

Often a promising player can be on the cusp of fantasy greatness with improvement in one area, like Gio Gonzalez dropping his walk rate from 4.1 to 3.4 per nine in 2012.  Maybe this year we'll see better control from Edinson Volquez, Yu Darvish, Matt Moore, or Felix Doubront, taking them to the next level.

Guys Coming Back From Injuries (Jonathon Niese, Homer Bailey, Jake Peavy, Adam Wainwright, Jordan Zimmermann, Kris Medlen)

Niese missed time in 2011 due to an intercostal strain, so there was never a concern about his arm.  Peavy and Bailey were coming off much more serious issues entering 2012, so the fact that they held up comes as a surprise.  But as Wainwright, Zimmermann, and Medlen reminded us, full recovery from Tommy John surgery is commonplace.  Zimmermann's TJ procedure actually took place in August of '09, but entering the 2012 season he was still being drafted in the 11th round perhaps because of the innings cap he'd been under in '11.

Players returning from injury, carrying an injury-prone reputation, or just coming off an injury-shortened season that you may consider rolling the dice on for 2013 include C.J. Wilson, Doug Fister, Brandon Morrow, Josh Johnson, Brett Anderson, Scott Baker, Derek Holland, Matt Garza, Josh Beckett, Tommy Hanson, Andrew Cashner, and Tommy John survivors Brandon Beachy (potential late June return), Cory Luebke (late May return), Daniel Hudson (July), and Felipe Paulino (July).

Unproven Guys (Ryan Vogelsong, Kris Medlen, Wade Miley, Yu Darvish, Lance Lynn, Chris Sale)

These six top 36 fantasy starters fell outside the top 100 players chosen heading into the 2012 season mostly because they lacked strong track records of big league success.  Some, such as Darvish and Sale, came with fantastic pedigrees, while a guy like Medlen wasn't supposed to be this good.  Medlen, Lynn, and even Sale weren't locks to hold down starting jobs in 2012.

For 2013, the unproven bracket includes Aroldis Chapman, Matt Harvey, Hisashi Iwakuma, Dylan Bundy, Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Shelby Miller, Tyler Skaggs, and a host of others.  But beware: while Matt Moore was pretty good fantasy-wise in 2012, he was drafted before more proven commodities like Gio Gonzalez, Adam Wainwright, Jordan Zimmermann, and Max Scherzer, and that was a mistake.  I'm curious if hype will push Chapman down from his current 131 ADP to something closer to the 100 range.

Perhaps the real sleepers among starting pitchers don't come until the first 150 players are off the board.  Given that restriction, here are my top five for 2013:

1. Lance Lynn.  Lynn throws hard, he's in his prime, and he got into better shape over the offseason.  I expect him to build upon his success from 2012, with the only threat being the Cardinals' rotation depth.
2. Homer Bailey.  You can grab Bailey in the 14th round for a reason: no one knows if he can handle a 200 inning workload again.  But entering his age 27 season following a strong second half, I'll take my chances.
3. Tim Lincecum.  I'll feel better about Timmy if just a little bit of that velocity comes back.  But to add value in the 17th round, Lincecum doesn't need to strike out 250 or win another Cy.  If he can provide those same 190 Ks with decent ratios, that would be acceptable in this draft position.
4. Jason Hammel.  I believe that Hammel really did turn a corner last year with the O's.  Can he top the 180 inning mark for the first time?  Does it matter, when you grab him in the 24th round?
5. Ivan Nova.  Most likely, you will be able to grab Nova for a bench spot, that's how down on him people are after a 7.05 ERA in the second half.  But the peripherals still looked good, and he should be entering his prime.

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A Look At Danny Espinosa

We ranked the Nationals' Danny Espinosa 13th among second basemen recently, yet he's not being drafted inside the first 40 rounds.  Let's dive into the numbers on this potential sleeper.

Espinosa, a third-round pick in 2008, hit .268/.337/.464 in 542 plate appearances across Double and Triple-A in 2010 despite missing time with a hamstring injury.  He mashed 22 home runs and stole 25 bags, though he was caught 11 times.  He switched from shortstop to second base in August and got the call in September.  He played second base for the Nationals regularly that month, hitting .214/.277/.447 with six home runs and a couple of times caught stealing in 112 plate appearances. Espinosa had minor hand surgery in November but is expected to be fine for Spring Training.

Espinosa is penciled in as the Nationals' Opening Day second baseman for 2011, though Jerry Hairston Jr., Albert Gonzalez, and Alex Cora might be hanging around to step in if he falters.  Espinosa will probably bat toward the bottom of the order at least initially.

Baseball America says Espinosa projects as a "solid regular," a player with excellent bat speed and average foot speed.  They say he runs the bases well, though his caught stealing numbers don't back that up.  For him to be mixed league worthy in 2011, he needs to continue attempting steals at the pace he did in the minors (over 15% of the time once he reached first base).

Projection systems spit out something like .240-20-70-80-20 if he is to get 550 ABs.  In an MLB.com chat, Espinosa named his personal goals: 

I want to go out there and play every day. Personally, I want to play every single day and hit for a solid average. That's my biggest thing. I want to hit for a solid average and have a high on-base percentage.      

Obviously a strikeout-prone player can not simply will himself to a good batting average.  But the power/speed combo makes Espinosa a top 15 second baseman even with a .240 average.  If you can take the hit in that category, he's a good late-round pick as for your MI slot.  Espinosa is not alone as a low-AVG power/speed second baseman; the Rays' Sean Rodriguez provides a similar package but with more big league experience.

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Inflated HR/Flyball Rates

About nine fantasy-relevant starting pitchers had home run per flyball rates of 13% or greater this year.  Most likely, we can expect these rates to fall in 2011, resulting in fewer home runs allowed if all else is equal.

• Jorge de la Rosa, 15.8%.  A guy with his groundball rate shouldn't have a 1.11 HR/9.  He'll probably be out of Coors in 2011; that'll help too.  He'll get you Ks, but still needs to trim walks to be a really useful fantasy pitcher.
• Kevin Correia, 14.8%.  Had sneakily decent peripherals, outside of his walk rate.  He won't be in San Diego in 2011, however.  Correia doesn't need to be drafted in mixed leagues, but you might want to monitor him.
• Manny Parra, 14.8%.  His career HR/flyball and BABIP are both pretty high, and it's been over 450 innings now.  He's something of a poor man's De La Rosa.
• Josh Beckett, 14.2%.  Burned by BABIP and HR/flyball, he's a sleeper if his control returns in 2011 and he stays healthy.
• Javier Vazquez, 14.0%.  He didn't have the typical Vazquez velocity or strong peripherals this time.  Worth speculating on, but only late.
• James Shields, 13.8%.  Strong K/BB, but burned by BABIP and HR/flyball.  I'd love to see him in the NL.
• Mike Leake, 13.2%.  Gets grounders, so he shouldn't be homer-prone.  His peripherals need some work but he did skip the minors.
• Derek Lowe, 13.1%.  He and Tim Hudson were the league's top groundballers, yet their HR rates were higher than they should have been.  Lowe has his uses at the back end of a mixed league rotation and was really sharp in the second half.
• Tim Hudson, 13.1%.  This might be countered by a rising BABIP.  I can see a sub-4.00 ERA in 2011, but his value is limited by his lack of Ks.

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Players To Watch: Kansas City Royals

Let's see what the Royals have to offer mixed leagues in 2011...

• Billy Butler, 1B.  Took a mild step back in power in his age 24 season.  I don't see why Butler can't provide a .300-20-100 season next year, and fantasy leaguers sometimes take him early in case he's ready to truly break out.  He trimmed strikeouts and improved his walk rate this year.
• Yuniesky Betancourt, SS.  16 homers and 78 RBIs, that's a quality mixed league shortstop.  Six of his homers were "just enoughs," so maybe look for 10 bombs in 2011.
• Mike Aviles, 2B.  He qualifies at shortstop too if your league uses a 10-game requirement.  Nice bounceback year for Aviles, who had a lost 2009 due to elbow surgery.  He's got a little pop, and he attempted to steal over 15% of the time he was on first base.  Quality middle infield sleeper.
• David DeJesus, OF.  His best season was cut short in July due to thumb surgery.  He's always provided sneaky value in average and runs.
• Wilson Betemit, 3B.  Massive .297/.378/.511 line in a half season.  He won't do that again, but he could certainly hit 20 home runs given 600 plate appearances as the team's regular third baseman.  Think about him for your CI slot if it's really, really late.
• Alex Gordon, OF.  Only played 10 games at 3B this year.  He says he's going to "dominate" next year, and I could see him matching Ned Yost's 20 home run, 80 RBI suggestion.  If he runs a little and his average isn't horrible, there could be some value.  You'll be able to get him late.
• Kila Ka'aihue, 1B.  Another huge year at Triple A, as well as six home runs in the bigs in the final month.  There's at least some chance of 25+ home runs and a quality OBP.  If he appears to be in line for regular duty come March, take a look.
• Zack Greinke, SP.  Unless he's traded to the Yankees or something, he could be a nice value pick next year.  SIERA puts him at 3.70 this year as opposed to his 4.17 ERA.  He admitted in September that he felt burnt out and unmotivated at times, so there is a mental component.  Certainly capable of a sub-3.00 ERA again.
• Luke Hochevar, SP.  We talked about him yesterday - interesting, but no need to draft him.
• Gil Meche, SP.  Also not worth drafting.  Maybe a healthy Meche could give you another 2008, but his shoulder probably won't allow 30 starts.  He could end up as Soria's setup man and therefore a dark horse for saves.
• Joakim Soria, RP.  He may be the game's best closer; he should go earlier than the ninth round this time.
• Mike Montgomery, SP.  Well-regarded 21-year-old lefty prospect.  He was decent at Double A, and could have some big league success in 2010, but I'd be surprised if he made a fantasy impact.
• Mike Moustakas, 3B.  Recently turned 22; hit .293/.314/.564 with 15 home runs in 236 plate appearances at Triple A.  He was incredible at Double A and could be an immediate .300, 25 home run threat as a rookie.  I imagine he'll start at Triple A.  Keep an eye on his performance and prepare for a potential June call-up.
• Eric Hosmer, 1B.  Just 21, he finished the year at Double A.  Hosmer has mammoth power, slugging .615 with 13 home runs in 211 PAs there.  If Ka'aihue struggles and Hosmer is raking, the Royals could bring him up.  Like Moustakas, he could make an impact right away.

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The Next David Price

Rays lefty David Price made 23 starts in 2009 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.35 WHIP after starting the season at Triple A.  This year he broke out, posting a 2.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 19 wins, and 188 strikeouts.  He was drafted in the 16th round on average.  How can we identify the next Price?  Before this season, here's what we knew about Price:

• First overall pick in 2007.
• Threw hard for a lefty, averaging 92.9 on his fastball.
• Control needed work and his strikeout rate wasn't amazing, but both rates were OK.
• Nothing special about his ERA or WHIP either.
• Doesn't play for a big-market team.

Can we find anyone similar heading into 2011 drafts?

• Pitchers with big league experience who were drafted in the first round in 2006-10: David Huff, Andrew Miller, Adam Ottavino, Ian Kennedy, Kyle Drabek, Max Scherzer, Brandon Morrow, Brad Lincoln, Luke Hochevar, Brett Cecil, Madison Bumgarner, Rick Porcello, Tommy Hunter, Andrew Cashner, Mike Minor, Mike Leake, and Chris Sale.  Consider that our field. 
• Throws hard: Ottavino, Drabek, Scherzer, Morrow, Hochevar, Cashner, Minor, and Sale.  I made an exception for Minor, who was throwing harder before he reached the bigs.  And I'm not saying those eliminated are without value; they're just not the next Price.
• Acceptable walk and strikeout rates in 2010 in the Majors: Scherzer, Morrow, Hochevar, Minor, and Sale.
• Unimpressive ERA/WHIP: Minor, Hochevar, and Morrow.  None of the the three play for big market, extra popular teams.

Morrow we discussed yesterday; he might go a bit before the 16th round.  Hochevar and Minor should be drafted pretty late.

Hochevar has tossed some brilliant games over the last few years - 22 strikeouts and zero walks in consecutive 2009 starts, a 10 K effort this year.  He also had three starts this year with 7+ Ks and 2 or fewer walks.  However, he was limited to 108 pro innings with an elbow sprain.  He's the type of guy you might not have to draft but should monitor.

Minor is very interesting.  His strikeout and walk rates were strong - 9.5 and 2.4 in 40.6 innings in the Majors and 10.9 and 3.4 in 120.3 minor league frames.  He was done in by a .396 BABIP in the bigs.  SIERA puts him at 3.29 as opposed to his 5.98 ERA.

What have we learned?  There are always about 25 intriguing young pitchers each year, but Mike Minor is our best bet to be the David Price of 2011.

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A Look At Brandon Morrow

Brandon Morrow is one of the more intriguing starters for 2011 fantasy drafts.  Let's take an in-depth look at the 26-year-old righty.

The Pros

• Among those with at least 100 innings pitched, Morrow ranked first in baseball by a longshot with a 10.95 K/9.  Tim Lincecum was next at 9.79.  Morrow struck out eight or more hitters in half his starts, including a 17-K gem.  If he reaches 200 innings, he could whiff 240.
• Morrow is difficult to hit, with 7.8 per nine allowed in his career.  He posted a .348 BABIP this year (almost certain to come down) but still allowed only 8.4 hits per nine because batters put so few balls in play against him.
• He's a former first-round pick who was jerked around before being traded to the Blue Jays, so he might now just be settling in.
• His average fastball velocity was a solid 93.4 this year. 
• Morrow's ERA was 4.49, but his SIERA was 3.15.  The casual fantasy player may not realize that he's in line for a much lower ERA even if his skills remain the same.

The Cons

• Due to injuries and time spent as a reliever, Morrow has never topped this year's 146.3 innings in a pro season.
• He's inefficient.  Morrow's 17.2 pitches per inning figure this year was the 10th-worst in baseball among those with 100 innings.  He averaged 5.63 innings per start, which could limit wins.
• I expect his WHIP to come down from 1.38 because of even fewer hits allowed.  But his 4.1 BB/9 was a career-best, and that's still a WHIP-damaging control rate.  Silver lining using arbitrary endpoints: his BB/9 was 3.0 over 14 starts made in June, July, and August.
• He pitches in the AL East.

In trying to predict where Morrow might be drafted, Clayton Kershaw is a decent comparable.  He too was coming off a low-inning, high walk campaign, and he was drafted in the eighth round before this season.  On the flip side he didn't come with injury or American League concerns and he's really tough to hit.  Jonathan Sanchez is also similar, and he was drafted in the 19th.  I'm thinking rounds 13-15 for Morrow in 2011.  It's a solid gamble.

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Players To Watch: Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles players we'll be keeping an eye on for mixed leagues in 2011...

• Nick Markakis, OF.  Drafted in the fifth round on average before the 2010 season, Markakis should slip several rounds in 2011 after his power continued to fade.  He batted third 64% of the time but drove in only 60 runs.  He might be able to bounce back to his 20 home run, 100 RBI ways.
• Adam Jones, OF.  He's seemingly settled into the 20 home run, 10 steal range, less than was expected of him.  He did have eight home runs in June.  Only 25, Jones' breakout could still be in the offing.
• Luke Scott, DH.  Scott played 19 games at first base and 14 in the outfield, so he may only qualify at DH if your league requires 20 games.  His power has risen for three straight seasons and he slugged over .600 in three separate months this year.  Maybe he takes one more jump up to 30 home runs.
• Matt Wieters, C.  Wieters' sophomore season did not bring improvement.  An eighth rounder before the season, he'll be later than the tenth this time.  I'm reaching here, but it's mildly interesting that Wieters slugged .416 over the season's final three months.  Hmm...actually, that's not interesting.  Nick Hundley can do that.  I still like Wieters if he becomes unpopular enough in drafts.
• Brian Roberts, 2B.  He won't go in the fourth round this time, as he was plagued by back pain all season.  He's 33 now and these things usually don't just go away, but if he slips to the ninth or tenth consider him.
• Jeremy Guthrie, SP.  His 3.83 ERA and 1.16 WHIP screams fluke.  In the unlikely event he's traded to an NL club, he might get on my radar.
• Brian Matusz, SP.  He should be a popular sleeper again after posting a 4.30 ERA and matching SIERA.  Over the last two months: 2.18 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9 in 62 innings.
• Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, SP.  Highly regarded, but disappointing in the bigs this year.  Both had promising Triple A numbers, especially Tillman, but I'd probably avoid them.
• David Hernandez, RP.  As a reliever this year: 3.16 ERA, 10.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.97 HR/9 in 37 innings.  Maybe Buck Showalter won't designate a closer right away, but Hernandez should be in the mix.  I certainly like him more than Alfredo Simon.  If Koji Uehara doesn't return and the O's don't sign a veteran, speculate on Hernandez.
• Mike Gonzalez, RP.  He may get first dibs at closing due to his salary, though maybe Showalter won't stand for that.  He tossed 22.6 innings from July forward, posting a 2.78 ERA, 11.1 K/9, and 4.0 BB/9.  He missed a bunch of time earlier with shoulder problems.
• Zach Britton, SP.  Well-regarded prospect could help the Orioles, but probably not your fantasy team as a rookie.

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Players To Watch: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates are always a good source of fantasy sleepers.  Here are the players you'll want to keep an eye on for 2011.

• Andrew McCutchen, OF.  Drafted in the eighth round before the 2010 season, McCutchen performed very close to his projection.  Perhaps the added reliability and the fact that he's only 24 make him go a round or two earlier in 2011.
• Ronny Cedeno, SS.  If you squint you can see a shortstop capable of 10 homers and 10 steals, which is worth something.
• Neil Walker, 2B.  Despite down-ballot ROY buzz he'll be a sleeper for next year.  Read more on him here.
• Ryan Doumit, C.  I could see him traded to another club and having some use as a second catcher.
• Chris Snyder, C.  He'll get the lion's share of the catching duties, and should be good for 15 homers and an ugly batting average.  With 450 ABs he could actually push 20 homers.
• Jose Tabata, OF.  He could steal 30 bags with 600 plate appearances.  He's only 22, and the power has yet to arrive.  Even so, he could supply runs batting in the #1-2 spots along with a nice average.  A sneaky three-category player who will likely be had late.
• Pedro Alvarez, 3B.  He's already capable of 30 homers and 100 RBIs.  Probably won't help in average or steals, but he could provide good value in the eighth round or so.
• John Bowker, OF.  The Pirates gave 654 PAs to Quad-A guy Garrett Jones, and maybe Bowker could get that chance next year.  He hit .313/.382/.587 with 18 homers in 322 Triple A PAs this year and was even better last year.
• Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan, RP.  These two righties will compete for the closer job in spring training.  My money's on Hanrahan, but it's too early to call.  If you draft one, try to snag the other later.  Chris Resop is a deeper sleeper to get into the saves mix.
• James McDonald, SP.  An 8.6 K/9 in 11 starts catches the eye.  A .330 BABIP helped push his WHIP to 1.38, as did a just-OK 3.64 BB/9.  On the flip side he can't sustain a 4.3% home run per flyball rate and he does allow a lot of flies.  SIERA had him at 3.74 in his 64 Pirates innings, and he throws pretty hard, so there's enough here for a speculative 20th round-type pick.
• Brad Lincoln, SP.  He failed in the bigs but had solid peripherals at Triple A.  Someone to watch, but not to draft in mixed leagues.  Another note on the Pirates' rotation: they're likely to add a veteran free agent starter.

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8 Pitchers Whose WHIPs Should Fall Next Year

We still like pointing out BABIP anomalies, call us old-fashioned.  Here are a few to watch for 2011 on the high side.

• James Shields - .354 BABIP.  I was going to do a post on how Shields is the new Javier Vazquez, always underperforming in ERA compared to his peripherals.  But then I realized there really isn't any such trend.  SIERA says 3.57 for Shields this year, way below his actual 5.18 ERA.  His 1.46 WHIP should scare off bidders as well.  He should be the best 187-strikeout bargain around in 2011 drafts, perhaps rounds 13-16.
• Manny Parra - .352 BABIP.  One of the hardest-throwing lefty starters, Parra will probably be tendered a contract by the Brewers on the strength of his 9.52 K/9.  SIERA says 3.82 as opposed to his 5.02 ERA, but Parra's control is an issue.  So while his WHIP will come down from 1.62, it still won't be good.
• Josh Beckett - .349 BABIP.  He had a 3.84 SIERA against a scary 5.78 ERA and an uncharacteristic 1.54 WHIP.  There's no reason we can't get the Beckett of '09 next year.  His poor season should push him toward the 10th round.
• Brandon Morrow - .348 BABIP.  He whiffed 178 in just 146.3 innings, but still had a 1.38 WHIP.  His walk rate will keep that WHIP at an unhelpful level, but his 8.36 hits per nine rate could actually come down.  Certainly an intriguing name for 2011 drafts, with his 17-strikeout one-hitter fresh in our minds.
• Zach Duke - .347 BABIP.  A 4.58 SIERA says he could have some uses in real baseball for a new club, but he's not a mixed league option.
• Aaron Harang - .346 BABIP.  His SIERA was only 4.44; Harang is definitely slipping.  Even if his WHIP comes down from 1.59 it will still hurt.  In the right ballpark, very late in the draft, I'd still consider him.
• Yovani Gallardo - .340 BABIP.  He cut down on the walks but still had a career-worst 1.37 WHIP.  On the plus side he struck out 200 for the second year in a row.  Maybe next year he puts it all together and takes a leap in value.  Sound investment around the 8th round.
• Francisco Liriano - .340 BABIP.  His 1.26 WHIP could have been even lower.  His 3.02 SIERA against his 3.62 ERA shows there's room for more here.  However, Liriano won't be drafted in the 19th round on average this time around.
• Honorable mentions to Jason Hammel (.337) and Jonathon Niese (.335).

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Lilly Remains With Dodgers

Good news for fantasy leaguers, as lefty Ted Lilly inked a three-year deal with the Dodgers.  Lilly has found the National League to his liking since 2007, trimming his walk rate significantly.  Only a handful of starting pitchers had an average fastball velocity below Lilly's 86.7 mph this year.  Unlike Mark Buehrle, Livan Hernandez, and others, Lilly is able to deceive his way to a strikeout rate near 8.0 per nine typically.

Lilly's wart is his groundball rate, which at 29.5% was the second-worst in baseball this year behind Kevin Slowey.  Tons of flyballs means frequent home runs; fortunately, they come without men on base given Lilly's control and apparent ability to prevent batted balls from falling for hits.  Dodger Stadium has a reputation as a pitcher-friendly place, though this year and in '07 it actually inflated home runs according to ESPN's park factors.  Lilly had a 1.35 HR/9 in 46.6 Dodger Stadium innings this year, which is around what we've come to expect from him.

Lilly had a sparkling 2.96 SIERA in 76.6 innings for the Dodgers this year, with a 4.14 mark in 117 Cubs frames.  His past Cubs' SIERAs suggest you should look for something in the 3.80 range going forward.  Lilly turns 35 in January, and there is health risk.  He missed most of April this year due to minor shoulder surgery, and has a history of shoulder problems from his American League days.

Lilly isn't an exciting pitcher, but he still gives you 165 Ks and a strong WHIP.  Last year he was drafted in the 16th round on average, and he should be in the same bargain range in 2011.

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