Fantasy Baseball Rankings

Catcher Rankings

By Tim Dierkes [February 11, 2010 at 10:51am CST]

It's time to bust out our tentative catcher rankings for two-catcher, 12-team mixed leagues using AVG, HR, RBI, R, and SB. These are subject to change, and I'm open to arguments in the comments. Current average draft round is in parentheses.

Joe Mauer (2) - $30.33
Brian McCann (4) - $23.19
Victor Martinez (3) - $20.43
Matt Wieters (9) - $17.41
Russell Martin (12) - $16.85
Mike Napoli (15) - $15.67
Geovany Soto (13) - $13.65
Kurt Suzuki (12) - $12.72
Ryan Doumit (18) - $10.80
Jorge Posada (10) - $10.30
Bengie Molina (14) - $9.91
Miguel Montero (13) - $9.55
A.J. Pierzynski (22) - $8.26
Chris Iannetta (16) - $8.16
Yadier Molina (20) - $7.75
Kelly Shoppach (27) - $5.52
Ramon Hernandez (26) - $5.44
Carlos Ruiz (23) - $5.02
John Buck (28) - $3.88
John Baker (27) - $3.53
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (27) - $3.38
Gerald Laird (27) - $1.52
Nick Hundley (28) - $1.20
Gregg Zaun (not drafted) - $1.00

The problem with projecting a lot of these guys is figuring out playing time. How many ABs will Napoli, Doumit, Posada, Montero, Iannetta, Shoppach, Hernandez, and Baker get? Right now we can only guess; the projections will be refined if managers are revealing during Spring Training.

We're calling for a bit of a bounceback for Martin, and he is the one real SB threat, but I'm still wary. If you decide to take a pass on the Big Three, I'd attempt to get Wieters and/or Soto in rounds 9-13. Those two could enter McCann/V-Mart territory depending on their spots in the batting order.

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Joba Chamberlain's 2009 Innings

By Tim Dierkes [January 25, 2009 at 2:27pm CST]

Recently a reader pointed out a bold projection from Ron Shandler and company at Baseball HQ: 199 innings for Joba Chamberlain in 2009. Most forecasters agree that Joba's ERA, WHIP, and K/9 will be very strong in '09, but with that innings total you'd have to consider him a top five fantasy starter. Mock drafters are taking Chamberlain in the 9th round on average, indicating concern that his innings will be limited by the Yankees, his health, or a midseason move to the 'pen.

I asked eleven of my favorite baseball writers to predict Chamberlain's 2009 regular season Major League innings total. Here are the results:

Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus: 175
Peter Abraham, The Lohud Journal: 160
Ken Rosenthal, FOX Sports: 155
Peter Gammons, ESPN: 145
Joe Pawlikowski, River Ave. Blues: 142
Jerry Crasnick, ESPN: 142
Ken Davidoff, Newsday: 141.6
Rick Wilton, Baseball Injury Report: 140
Rob Neyer, ESPN: 137.6
Keith Law, ESPN: 125
Jon Heyman, SI: 109

The average comes to 142.9 innings. If Joba pitches 143 innings, I'd rank him 18th among fantasy starters - after Cliff Lee but before Rich Harden. It's quite conceivable that Chamberlain could have more fantasy value (in just 143 innings) than John Lackey, Felix Hernandez, Scott Kazmir, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, who are all being drafted before him.

As we mentioned in the Max Scherzer post, Chamberlain will probably pitch well if he's healthy and hit the disabled list otherwise. If he's on the DL, you can take the best available waiver wire arm. 143 innings from Joba plus 50 from the waiver wire probably equals a top ten starter. Scherzer, Harden, and Randy Johnson may be underrated in a similar fashion.

A Few Thoughts On Bruce Chen

By Tim Dierkes [February 23, 2006 at 1:15pm CST]

I noticed this comment by ESPN's Tristan Cockcroft today in a chat:

"I can't believe no one is talking more about Bruce Chen, especially with Mazzone now in Baltimore. Everyone seems to focus on Daniel Cabrera and Erik Bedard as the breakout candidates, but Chen has pitched pretty well for the Orioles of late. I think he's a lot better candidate to repeat his 2005 totals than people think; it's not like he lacks the talent to be a successful pitcher. Plus, he hasn't been picked in a single one of my mixed drafts to this point. I'd take a flier on him."

Interesting case, Bruce Chen. He surprised many with a career high 13 wins in 2005. It was his age 28 season, and he also posted a 3.83 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. His strikeout rate was league average, and 197 innings was a career high.

Chen gives up a lot of home runs, but he's a solid back of the rotation type. I project him at 11 wins with a 4.08 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this year. PECOTA calls for 4.24 and 1.32. This ain't bad, but Chen is waiver wire material in mixed leagues. I project his value at $1.58. Still, I'd take him over guys like Jarrod Washburn and Mike Mussina.

Bedard doesn't project a whole lot better, but he's gotten a lot more press. I have Cabrera valued over $7, however. He could rack up 175 Ks and an ERA around 3.50.

Still, if you're searching for boring back-rotation guys, why not take the safe money? I think Paul Byrd, Greg Maddux, and Jon Lieber will be better than any of the previously mentioned starters and have better health/performance track records. Control pitchers don't get your blood pumping, but you should take these guys over Cabrera.

Liebs especially could surprise some folks. 220 innings from him means 150 Ks, and his WHIP is always near 1.20. He could win 15-16 games in 2006. He posted a 3.28 ERA after the break in '05, and with just a couple less HRs could post a 3.75 ERA in '06. Underrated fantasy starter.

Armando Benitez Projection

By Tim Dierkes [February 21, 2006 at 1:57pm CST]

Purchasers of my 2006 Fantasy Guide may have noticed that Armando Benitez is valued at just $2.39, right below Kyle Farnsworth. Given that Benitez posted a 1.29 ERA with 47 saves in his last healthy season, what gives? Let's take a peek under the hood and see why I've projected Benitez to have a 4.26 ERA in 2006.

To begin with, I have Benitez pitching 68 innings in '06. It's his previously established healthy level, and he hasn't really exceeded it since 2001.

Next, let's look at his K rate. While there are some dangerously small samples from 2003 and 2005, Benitez's strikeout rate has seen a fairly steady decline since 1999. I've pegged it at 7.6 per nine for his age 33 season, which would be better than his '05 mark in 30 innings. Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system thinks Benitez will remain at 2005's 6.9 K/9 rate. The ZiPS system went with 8.1, a rise from his 2004 mark.

Now it's time to predict Benitez's hit rate. This is far from an exact science, but I'll do my best. I put it at 7.4 hits per nine. It hasn't been that high in a full season since '03, and Benitez posted a remarkably low 4.6 per nine rate in 2004. I'm not sure how much control he has over his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) but the .178 mark from '04 seems a tad lucky. ZiPS says 7.4 and PECOTA went with 7.9.

Walk rate must also be projected for us to come up with his WHIP. 2004 and maybe 2002 were the only two seasons during which Benitez had walk rates that could be considered good. He has a 4.62 per nine career mark, and I went with 4.65. I think he could get this down to 4.3, but I'd be surprised to see much better than that. The field does not agree, as ZiPS said 4.0 and PECOTA 4.2. In their defense, Benitez's career walk rate is influenced by some wildness early in his career.

My projections call for a 1.34 WHIP, versus 1.40 from PECOTA and 1.28 from ZiPS. The range here is huge, with the most variation in the walks allowed portion. Improved control is how Benitez would most likely prove my projection wrong.

I was pessimistic in projected his HR rate, going with 1.1 per nine. He hasn't been that bad in a full season since '02, but Benitez did spend 2004 in a major pitchers' park. ZiPS went with 0.90 and PECOTA predicts 1.1.

Given Benitez's salary and the weak San Francisco bullpen, it'd be a surprise to see him lose his job. That's why I still predicted 34 saves. According to the depth chart at The Closer Watch, we could have to endure more 9th innings in the hands of Tyler Walker if Benitez really blows up or gets hurt.

PECOTA projects a 4.40 ERA while ZiPS is kinder with 4.03. My final projection:

IP	H	HR	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP	W	SV
68	56	8	35	57	4.26	1.34	5	34

There's plenty of uncertainty here, but three independent systems predict an ERA over 4 for San Francisco's closer. I'm not sure what kind of price Benitez will go for in auctions this year, but I'd have to think it will be more than $5. He went in the 11th round of ESPN's expert mock draft, ahead of Tom Gordon, Eddie Guardado, Brian Fuentes, and Jose Valverde. At this point in his career Benitez just doesn't look like a good fantasy investment, and I'd prefer any of those four.

More On Chris Duffy

By Tim Dierkes [February 17, 2006 at 10:50am CST]

I last wrote about Chris Duffy on February 12th, mentioning that he could steal 30 bags if he gets 550 ABs. After reading the praise heaped on him in this article, my confidence in his ability and playing time has improved.

Jim Tracy loves the guy. It really looks like a foregone conclusion that the center field/leadoff job is Duffy's to lose. This is his age 26 season, and he's spent plenty of time in the minors. Despite his blazing speed, Duffy stole only 17 bases in 308 Triple A at-bats last year. He's not quite a high percentage basestealer, and he didn't do much in 39 games for the Pirates.

At this point Duffy looks like a .280-.290 hitter who would have a hard time not stealing 20 bases in a full season. But it seems that he's expected to be aggressive and utilize his speed, so 30 is entirely possible. Regardless, Duffy has little value to mixed leaguers except perhaps as a short-term injury replacement. NL-only folks should view him top 25 outfielder worthy of a double digit bid. In the best case scenario, Duffy becomes Randy Winn in a few years.