Fantasy Baseball Rankings

2012 Position Rankings: Third Base

By Mike Axisa [February 16, 2012 at 10:00am CST]

Third base offers quite a bit of variety in fantasy, with some extreme power hitters, a few high average guys, and some all-around players that impact all five categories. The talent pool figures to get even deeper once Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, and possibly even Mark Trumbo pick up hot corner eligibility at some point this season. As always, the rankings are based on standard 12-team mixed leagues with 5x5 scoring.

Jose Bautista, TOR - Bautista showed that 2010 was no fluke last year, mashing 43 homers and lowering his fly ball rate (and thus raising his BABIP) enough to bring his average over .300. He might not hit .300+ long-term, but power is getting harder to come by and he's as much of a lock for 35+ dingers (and all the run production numbers that come along with them) as anyone.
Evan Longoria, TBR - Despite missing almost the entire month of April, Longoria hit 31 homers and fell just shy of 100 RBI in 2011. His BABIP dropped to .239 after three straight years of .300+, though the only significant change in his batted ball profile was a slight increase in his infield fly ball rate. Expect his .244 batting average to rebound in 2012.
Adrian Beltre, TEX - Beltre missed more than five weeks with a hamstring strain, but he was still a top four producer in batting average (.296), homers (32), RBI (105), and runs (82) among qualified third baseman. Given the lineup around him and his home ballpark., good health in 2012 could result in the best all-around season at the position.
Pablo Sandoval, SF- Kung Fu Panda shook off his sophomore slump to produce his second .300+ average, 23+ homer season in the last three years, though a wrist problem cost him a shot at 30 long balls. It's an unfavorable park and a lineup without much help, but at 25 years old, Sandoval has a chance to produce some serious fantasy value over the next few years.
David Wright, NYM - CitiField has not been kind to Wright, who has hit .284/.364/.463 in the three years at his new digs (.309/.389/.533 beforehand). Injuries have played a part as well, and it's worth noting that his road performance (.288/.352/.479) has suffered since the move as well. The walls moved this offseason, so hopefully he'll break some of the bad habits he's developed over the last three years.
Ryan Zimmerman, WAS - Zimmerman is one of the most unheralded great players in the game, but injuries have held him back from true superstar status. He missed two months with an abdominal problem last year and has lost time to injury in three of the last four years. When right, there's .280/30/100/100+ potential here.
Aramis Ramirez, MIL - There isn't much difference between Wrigley Field and Miller Park, but Aramis will benefit from having a better lineup (even without Prince Fielder and potentially Ryan Braun for 50 games) around him and not having to face Milwaukee's pitching. Another 25+ HR with close to 100+ RBI and a respectable average is in the cards.
Kevin Youkilis, BOS - Injuries have robbed Youk of playing time in each of the last three seasons, which in turn has cut into his production. He didn't hit at all away from Fenway Park in 2011 (.191/.317/.349), but that's more likely to be a fluke than a sign of imminent danger. He's still capable of big numbers given his ballpark and teammates, but he has to stay on the field first.
Alex Rodriguez, NYY - Once the best fantasy player in the world, A-Rod has spent time in the DL in each of the last four seasons. He missed the 30 HR, 100 RBI level for the first time since 1997 last year, but the power output has been declining steadily into his mid-30s. He's still an RBI machine and will hit for average, but his body has betrayed him lately. He could have a huge year given his unmatched talent, but it's very unlikely.
Brett Lawrie, TOR - Few rookies made a bigger immediate impact that Lawrie last year (.293/9/25/26/7 in just 43 games), so he set a really high standard for himself in 2011. The talent is there for 20-20 with a near-.300 average over a full season's worth of playing time, but be careful not to overrate him based on that late-season cameo.
Mark Reynolds, BAL - Only seven players have hit 30+ HR in each of the last three seasons, and Reynolds is one of them. He's not going to hit for average at all (.238 career), but he stays in the lineup (145+ games in each of the last four years) and draws enough walks to reach base and score runs at a respectable rate. The homers and run production are valuable by themselves, but his ability to flirt with double-digit steals in underrated.
Michael Young, TEX - The first and almost certainly the only player to appear in our rankings at three different positions, Young is the same guy we've ranked two times before. He'll hit for an average that's anywhere from solid to steller with strong run production numbers given his lineup and ballpark, but don't expect much power or many steals.
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR - Encarnacion is generally under-appreciated, but he's become a better all-around player over the last few seasons and now contributes solid production in each of the five categories. He's not a star, but he is entering his prime years and could get even better.
Chase Headley, SD - Switch-hitters with power, patience, and above average defense at the hot corner are supposed to be stars, but Headley has been smothered by Petco Park: career .229/.319/.336 at home but .303/.364/.441 on the road. You'll get a solid average and double-digit steals (plus a healthy OBP if you're in that kind of league), but don't be surprised if he winds up with single-digit homers.
Ryan Roberts, ARI - Tatman broke out with 19 HR and 18 steals last year, though his track record is very limited and his 24.3% line drive rate might not last. Roberts is in a good hitter's park with a strong lineup around him, and a full season of playing time might just turn into 20-20 with close to triple-digit RBI and runs scored given his walk rate. Lots of risk though.
Emilio Bonifacio, FLA - Bonifacio is unlikely to repeat last season's .372 BABIP, but he's a classic slash-and-dash type that is expected to post higher than average BABIPs. Even if his average creeps away from .300, he'll still have value because he'll steal more bases that pretty much anyone else at the position.
David Freese, STL - Destined to be overrated on draft day given his World Series heroics, Freese played in 100+ games for the first time since 2008 last year, and even then it was only 101 contests. He's missed time with hand, ankle, and foot problems in recent years, though he's produced whenever he's been on the field: .298/.354/.429 with 15 HR and 98 RBI in 667 big league plate appearances, a full season's worth.
Chipper Jones, ATL - One of only 21 players in baseball history with a .300/.400/.500+ career batting line (min. 5,000 plate appearances), Chipper can still hit. His batting average has sunk into the .265-.275 range, but he hit 18 HR for the second time in three years in 2012. It's all about health. If he stays on the field, he'll provide some value.
Daniel Murphy, NYM - If you could build a hitter for CitiField, Murphy is probably what you'd end up with. He hits a plethora of line drives and ground balls, which are conducive to a high BABIP (and by extension, batting average). Don't expect many homers or stolen bases, but he could surprise in the run production categories.
Martin Prado, ATL - Prado excels at putting the ball in play (just 8.8% strikeouts in 2011), but he doesn't have a ton of power (28 HR in over 1,200 plate appearances over the last two years) and his value to closely tied to his BABIP. His line drive rate fell off a cliff last year, so expect a slight rebound in batting average in 2012.
Danny Valencia, MIN - The stellar debut season was followed by a brutal sophomore campaign, but there are reasons to expect his BABIP (and batting average) to rebound given his batted ball profile. I doubt Valencia will repeat the .311 mark he put up in 2010, but he's better than a .246 hitter. Fifteen bombs from any position is valuable as well.
Ian Stewart, CHC - Last season was just brutal for Stewart, who hit .156/.243/.221 in 48 games with the Rockies while missing time with knee and wrist problems. He's still only 26 though, with big left-handed power and a move into a ballpark that favors such hitters. There's bounce back potential here (meaning .250 average and 20 or so homers), and even a smidgen of breakout potential.
Pedro Alvarez, PIT - Strikeouts, left-handers, and conditioning continue to be an issue for the former second overall pick, who missed close to two months with a quad strain last year. Alvarez has huge raw power, but he doesn't figure to hit for much average and he won't steal any bases. The power and run production potential is considerable though. I think he's underrated at the moment.
Mike Moustakas, KC - Moose's debut was underwhelming last year (.263/5/30/26/2 in 365 plate appearances), and the Royals did look for a platoon partner this winter to make life easier for him. There's legitimate 30 HR power here, but I wouldn't expect him to tap into it right away. Moustakas is an intriguing player, but the ride figures to be bumpy at first.
Lonnie Chisenhall, CLE - Chisenhall showed some power during his debut last season, though most of it was into the gaps rather than over the fence. The lefty swinger has shown a platoon split throughout his career, but luckily for him he's on the dominant side and his home ballpark is friendlier to his kind.

Honorable Mention: Wilson Betemit, BAL; Mat Gamel, MIL; Casey McGehee, PIT; Alberto Callaspo, LAA; Scott Sizemore, OAK; Jimmy Paredes, HOU

Other Positions: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Shortstop

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2012 Position Rankings: Shortstop

By Mike Axisa [February 9, 2012 at 10:00am CST]

Shortstop is one of hardest positions on the field to fill in real life, but there are plenty of fantasy options from which to choose. There is only one bonafide fantasy superstar at short though, so he'll come off the board very early on draft day. These rankings are based on standard 12-team mixed leagues with traditional 5x5 scoring.

Troy Tulowitzki, COL - The undisputed top fantasy shortstop, Tulo has hit .300+ in each of the last two years and 27+ HR, 90+ RBI, and 80+ runs in each of the last three years. His stolen base total is trending downward (20 in 2009, 11 in 2010, nine in 2011), but at 27 years old, he should have no problem jumping back in the double digits if healthy.
Hanley Ramirez, MIA - Hanley will be manning the hot corner in Miami, but he's still going to be fantasy eligible at short. Shoulder problems hampered him for most of last season, though his ground ball rate spiked significantly in 2010 and has robbed him of both over-the-fence and doubles power. Ramirez is only 28 and figures to rebound with a healthy shoulder, but he's no longer the slam dunk elite producer he once was.
Jose Reyes, MIA - The days of 60+ steals appear to be a thing of the past thanks to Reyes' nagging hamstring issues, which landed him on the DL twice in 2011. He doesn't figure to give you many HR or RBI, but you will get a solid batting average, a ton of runs, and still a plethora of steals assuming he can stay on the field. As with Hanley, the team's new ballpark is a bit of an x-factor.
Elvis Andrus, TEX - Still just 23, Andrus is a stolen base and runs scored machine, but he's not going to give you many RBI and has hit just five homers over the last two seasons. His average has been just decent so far in his career, but he puts the ball in play (just 13.1% strikeouts in his three years) and has the wheels to leg out infield hits.
Jimmy Rollins, PHI - J-Roll's real life value has slipped in recent years, but he's still one of fantasy's best options at the position because he'll give you everything but RBI. Like two of the four guys ahead of him, injuries are a concern, though he did get into 142 games last season.
Starlin Castro, CHC - The NL leader in hits last season with 207, Castro hasn't stopped hitting since debuting in 2010. He topped double-digit homers and 20+ steals for the first time last year, and should only improve from here on out. Down expect too many RBI, but the runs will be there.
Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE - After hitting just 18 HR in the first 387 games of his career, Cabrera clubbed 25 in 2012 and either set or matched his career bests in RBI, runs, and steals. It's not a coincidence that he was able to avoid the DL for the first time since 2008. The HR total could take a step back, but the production in the other categories should be there.
Alexei Ramirez, CHW - The Cuban Missile took a step back from his 2010 production, but it's hard to complain about .269/15/70/81/7. There's no reason he shouldn't get back to stealing 10+ bases again next year, and the power numbers have always been there. Ramirez is one of the safest bets on this list, a solid performer with no standout fantasy tool.
J.J. Hardy, BAL - Good health and the friendly confines of Camden Yards resulted in 30 HR and solid run production numbers last summer. Hardy can do it again at age 29, but he does have a bit of injury history and won't offer much in the batting average or stolen base departments.
Erick Aybar, LAA - Aybar doubled his best single-season homer total last year, setting new career highs in HR (ten), RBI (59), runs (71), and steals (30). He'll likely hit in the .270's again, and having Albert Pujols in the lineup will help his fantasy production one way or the other.
Yunel Escobar, TOR - Escobar has hit .288+ in four of the last five years, but he's also missed some time due to injury each year. The double-digit homer potential is in there despite his astronomical ground ball rate, and he'll score a ton of runs hitting in front of Jose Bautista & Co.
Derek Jeter, NYY - The Yankees captain was marvelous after returning from the DL in early-July (.331/.384/.447 in 314 PA), but he didn't hit much in the year and half prior to that. Jeter is an extreme ground ball hitter and might never hit double-digit homers again, but he should still give you a solid average, a health amount of steals, and a ton of runs scored thanks to his supporting cast.
Dee Gordon, LAD - Gordon stole 24 bases and scored 34 runs in his 56-game cameo last season, and now he's got the job full-time. There's a non-zero chance that he'll hit zero homers (none in 2011, majors or minors), but he's a threat for 50+ steals and a ton of runs scored. He might not hit for a decent average or drive in many runs, but the bulk steals will be tremendously valuable.
Jhonny Peralta, DET - Peralta had he best season of his career last year, though his batting average was the only fantasy stat that really jumped a notch. He'd been a 15+ HR, 80+ RBI, zero steals guy for half-a-decade, and that's what he should be next year. I wouldn't count on another .299 average though, there was no significant change in his batting ball profile to suggest real improvement just yet.
Emilio Bonifacio, MIA - Bonifacio broke out in a big way last season, hitting .296 with 40 steals and a ton of runs scored. His .372 BABIP is high compared the rest of his career, which is notable since his batted ball profile didn't change much. That near-.300 average could come back to Earth in 2012, but the stolen base ability is for real.
Stephen Drew, ARI - The D'Backs aren't sure when exactly they'll have their shortstop back, but Drew has been running following his season-ending ankle injury. When healthy, he'll give you a decent average, double-digit homers, and solid run production, but who knows when he'll get back on the field and more importantly, shake off the rust.
Ian Desmond, WAS - Desmond produced nearly identical fantasy numbers in 2011 that he did in 2010, which meant .253/8/49/65/25. He's done it two years in a row now, do I'd count on it again in 2012.
Alcides Escobar, KC - A defense-first shortstop, Escobar got back to stealing bases last year (26) and managed to score a fair amount of runs (69) at the bottom of the lineup. He won't hit for average or power, so his fantasy value is tied up almost exclusively in runs and steals.
Jason Bartlett, SD - We're now two full years removed from Bartlett's monster 2009 season, but he did provide value by stealing 23 bases last year. He's basically a poor man's Desmond, doing everything the Nats' shortstop does except hit for any kind of power.
Marco Scutaro, COL - Scutaro does a little bit of everything but nothing exceptionally well. He'll lose some runs scored and RBI given the move out of the Red Sox's lineup, but he'll hit for a solid average, pop some homers, and steal the occasional base.
Jamey Carroll, MIN - Carroll hasn't hit a homer in two full seasons now, but he continues to hit close to .300 and steal double-digit bases even at age 37. He'll also draw enough walks and reach base often enough to provide plenty of runs scored, particularly if Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau stay healthy.
Jed Lowrie, HOU - It's all about health for Lowrie, who hasn't played in 100 games in a single season since 2008. He can hit when healthy, though probably not as well as he did in the second half of 2010. He has the ability to provide double-digit homers with a solid average and run production numbers, but will he stay on the field long enough to be worth a roster spot?
Mike Aviles, BOS - It's shouldn't be all that difficult for Aviles to beat out Nick Punto for regular at-bats, but as an opposite-field right-handed hitter, he won't get to take advantage of the Green Monster. There's .300/10+/10+ potential here, but only if he plays every pretty much every day.
Rafael Furcal, STL - As injuries continue to take their roll on Furcal's now 34-year-old body, his fantasy worth depends on whether or not he can stay healthy enough to slash his way to a .300 average and 20+ steals like he did in 2010. I'm guessing he won't, but stranger things have happened.
Alex Gonzalez, MIL - Gonzalez has whacked 15+ HR in three of the last four years, but he doesn't do much beyond that. He hits at or below .250, doesn't steal bases, and doesn't get on base enough to post meaningul runs scored totals. It's all about the power here, don't expect any help in the other categories.

Honorable Mention: Clint Barmes, PIT; Cliff Pennington, OAK; Eduardo Nunez, NYY; Sean Rodriguez, TBR; Ryan Theriot, SF; Yuniesky Betancourt, KC

Other Positions: Catcher, First Base, Second Base

Full Story | Comments (0) | Categories: Fantasy Baseball Rankings | Shortstops

2012 Position Rankings: Second Base

By Mike Axisa [February 2, 2012 at 10:00am CST]

Second base is one of fantasy's stronger positions, with several elite producers, plenty of depth, and a number of young breakout candidates. It also helps that a number of these players are eligible at other positions, and flexibility is always appreciated. Remember, these rankings are gearing towards 12-team mixed leagues and traditional 5x5 scoring.

Robinson Cano, NYY - At 29 years old, Cano is right in the prime of his career with a great supporting cast and ballpark. There is no such thing as a guarantee in fantasy baseball, but he's close to a lock for .300/25/100/100. Don't expect more than a handful of steals, however.
Dustin Pedroia, BOS - Pedroia showed no ill-effects from his 2010 foot injury, posting career highs with 21 HR, 91 RBI, and 26 steals last year. He might not hit for that kind of over-the-fence power again, but he'll flirt with a .300 average, score a ton of runs, and steal 20 bases.
Ian Kinsler, TEX - Kinsler led all qualified second baseman in steals (30) and was second in homers (32) last season, but only once in his six years has he topped a .286 batting average. Last year was also the first time he avoided the disabled list, and he won't do much for your RBI total hitting atop an admittedly great lineup.
Dan Uggla, ATL - You can count on Uggla to do everything but hit for average and steal bases. He's on a five-year run of at least 146 games played, 31 HR, 82 RBI, and 84 runs, with an average of 157 games played, 33 HR, 91 RBI, and 96 runs. No reason to expect any different in 2012.
Ben Zobrist, TBR - Zobrist's last three years have been all over the spectrum, going from great (2009) to decent (2010) to above-average (2011). He doesn't hit for the kind of average you'd expect from a speedy guy with a high ground ball rate and a turf home infield, but he contributes to the other four categories consistently. Outfield eligibility makes him a bit more valuable as well.
Brandon Phillips, CIN - Once a perennial 20-20 guy, Phillips' power output has been in steady decline since 2008 (18 HR in 2011) while his stolen bases total dropped for the second straight year (14). He's still a safe bet for 15-15 with a solid average next season, and he should help plenty in the runs scored and driven in departments.
Howie Kendrick, LAA - Kendrick parlayed the best season of his career into a fat new contract extension, meaning everyone is expecting him to do it again. The .330+ batting averages everyone forcasted during his days as a prospect have never materialized, but he's consistently around .290 and is trending upwards in the power and stolen base departments.
Rickie Weeks, MIL - The Brewers will count on Weeks offensively after losing Prince Fielder (and potentially Ryan Braun for 50 games), but unfortunately he's spent time on the disabled list in all but one of his six seasons. If healthy, he'll give you 20 HR and threaten double-digit steals with plenty of run production.
Chase Utley, PHI - Injuries have hindered a player that was once one of fantasy's best, limiting Utley to just 218 games over the last two seasons. He's more of a 15-15 player than a 30-15 player these days, and his increasing susceptability to left-handers may drag his average down. Be careful, second basemen tend to fall off a cliff quickly.
Michael Young, TEX - I wouldn't expect another .338 batting average and his days of 20+ homers are probably over, but Young will both score and drive in a ton of runs in that lineup and ballpark. As always, his biggest fantasy asset remains his ability to hit for average. After playing just 14 games at second last year, there's a non-zero chance he'll lose eligibility this year.
Dustin Ackley, SEA - Safeco Field is a pitcher's park but it is slightly less suffocating for left-handed bats. Ackley was suberb in his debut last season, and should improve his output with a full season of at-bats in 2012. A .280-.290 average with double-digit homers and steals is a safe bet.
Neil Walker, PIT - Walker's first full year in the big leagues was a success, and at 26 years old it's reasonable to expect him to improve his .273/12/83/76/9 performance. I don't think he can do 20 HR over a full season just yet, but more than likely you'll get help in all categories.
Danny Espinosa, WAS - Don't expect Espinosa's low-.200's batting average to improve as long as he employs that uppercut swing, but that same swing gives him legit 20+ HR power. He's also a threat to steal 20 bases if he picks his spots a little better. Some BABIP luck could result in a huge season.
Kelly Johnson, TOR - I think Johnson is a little underrated at the moment, mostly because his 2011 season is a disappointment compared to 2010. He still hit 21 HR with 16 steals, and his batting average should get out of the gutter with some help from the turf in Toronto. There was no significant change in his batted ball profile from 2010-2011, so it's fair to expect a BABIP-fueled rebound.
Jemile Weeks, OAK - Rickie's kid brother is going to have to create all his fantasy value himself, because his teammates and ballpark won't help at all. He could slash his way to a .290 average with 40 stolen base upside, but you'll get nothing in the other three categories.
Ryan Roberts, ARI - Roberts might not retain second base eligibility if the D'Backs intend to use him as their everyday third baseman, and his track record is mighty short. The downside is an unrosterable player, but the upside is a 20-20 guy maybe 80+ runs driven in.
Jason Kipnis, CLE - If you take Kipnis' performance from his late season call-up and extrapolate it over a 162-game season, it works out to 30+ HR and 20+ stolen bases. I promise you he won't do that in 2012. The lefty swinger could push 20 homers and ten steals if he stays healthy, making him a prime breakout candidate.
Marco Scutaro, COL - Scutaro does a little bit of everything, but nothing exceptionally well. The move from Fenway Park to Coors Field probably hurt him given the drop-off in his supporting staff, but Scutaro is a safe late-round pick who will help you just enough in all five categories. I like him as a waiver wire injury replacement more than anything.
Aaron Hill, ARI - Hill hasn't been the same player since swatting 36 HR in 2009, mostly because he's gotten power hungry and added a huge uppercut to his swing. His batting average won't improve until he stops hitting so many balls in the air, and last year's eight homers and 21 steals were the reverse of what was expected. He's a hard guy to pin down.
Daniel Murphy, NYM - The Mets figure to use Murphy as their primary second baseman next season, but even if that experiment doesn't work out, he'll see enough time there to retain eligibility. He can hit for a solid average but doesn't figure to contribute many homers or stolen bases.
Jose Altuve, HOU - The 5-foot-7 listing might be generous, but they don't count height in fantasy. Like the younger Weeks, Altuve has to produce all of his fantasy value himself with batting average and stolen bases because he won't hit for power and his teammates won't help him out very much.
Ryan Raburn, DET - With Delmon Young and Brennan Boesch entrenched in the outfield corners, Raburn will see his most of his time at second this year. He's hit at least 14 HR in each of the last three seasons, though his batting average has declined for two straight years now. We've been waiting for the breakout for a few years now, will it come in 2012?
Gordon Beckham, CHW - It's been a tough few years for the eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft. Beckham has the pop to hit double-digit homers and the potential to break out at any moment, but we're going on 1,500 plate appearances of sub-replacement level fantasy production. Upside can be tempting, but try to resist.
Jamey Carroll, MIN - Carroll hasn't hit a home run in two years, and that's unlikely to change with the move to Target Field. He has consistently hit in the high-.200's with double-digit steals however, and his walks have value in OBP leagues. Not a guy you want to start everyday, but a fine substitute.
Ryan Theriot, SF - After four straight years of 20+ steals, Theriot dropped to just four last season. Part of that was the Cardinals' offensively philosophy, but he also got caught six times. Theriot has fantasy value as a .270 hitter with 20+ steals, so we'll have to see a) if the Giants give him the green light in 2012, and b) how much they actually play him.

Honorable Mentions: Sean Rodriguez & Jeff Keppinger, TBR; Robert Andino & Brian Roberts, BAL; Orlando Hudson, SD; Omar Infante, FLA; Mark Ellis, LAD

Other Positions: Catcher, First Base

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2012 Position Rankings: First Base

By Mike Axisa [January 26, 2012 at 10:00am CST]

This week's rankings take us to the most productive position on the field, first base. The average first baseman hit .271/.345/.451 with 24 homers, 91 RBI, 79 runs scored, and four stolen bases last year, so expected production is high. The position is not as deep with elite players as you may think though, with just five no-doubters in the primes of their careers followed by a bunch of guys with limited track records, injury problems, age concerns, significant flaws, or all of the above.

Just to be clear, I am not including Mike Napoli, Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, and Joe Mauer in these rankings even though they'll likely have first base eligiblity next year. All four guys are far more valuable behind the plate at the catcher position. This list is true first basemen only. The rankings are made with respect to traditional 12-team, 5x5 mixed leagues.

Miguel Cabrera, DET - Still just 28, Cabrera hasn't hit lower than .320 in three years now and is a lock for 30 HR and 100 RBI. He's the best all-around hitter in baseball at the moment, and if the Tigers truly intend to use him at third base at least part of the time in 2012, he's a candidate to go first overall in drafts given inevitable hot corner eligibility.
Joey Votto, CIN - The early season power slump was puzzling, but Votto finished strong and ended up with 24+ HR for the fourth straight season. If he can get back to stealing double-digit bases like he did in 2010, he'll have a strong case to be the best fantasy first baseman as a true five category contributor.
Albert Pujols, LAA - New league, new team, new ballpark, but expect the same old Albert. Last year's bout with mortality is a career year for most players, with power (37 HR), average (.299), steals (nine), RBI (99), and runs scored (105). The Machine still does it all.
Prince Fielder, DET - Comerica Park isn't nearly as hitter friendly as Miller Park, but Prince has the kind of power that plays anywhere. He'll give you everything but stolen bases, and if he hits behind Cabrera, he's got a chance for to put up an eye-popping RBI total.
Adrian Gonzalez, BOS - Gonzalez admitted to feeling fatigue in his surgically repaired shoulder last last season, which is probably why he hit just 12 HR in his final 404 plate appearances. He hit a ton of ground balls last year (46.7%), and if that goes back to his career norm (41.4%), expect his BABIP (.380) and batting average (.338) to come back to Earth a bit.
Lance Berkman, STL - Berkman looked pretty close to done in 2010, but he revived his career in the outfield of all places. He'll step in for Pujols now, but it would be wise to expect second half Puma (.315/7/31) rather than first half Puma (.290/24/63) over a full season. Fortunately that's still an excellent player.
Mark Teixeira, NYY - After seeing his batting average (.248) decline for the third straight year, Teixeira acknowledged that he changed his approach in an effort to take advantage of Yankee Stadium's short right field porch. His average will get back to being respectable with a shift back to his all-fields approach, and the HR and RBI totals will still be gaudy.
Paul Konerko, CHW - Like Berkman, Konerko looked close to done once upon a time (2008 and 2009), but he rebounded to have the two best years of his career in 2010 and 2011. His teammates won't help much with the runs and RBI, but the power and batting average should still be top notch. He's not without risk at age 35 (36 in March).
Eric Hosmer, KC - An aggressive ranking? Sure, but the 22-year-old did everything but draw walks last year. He'll threaten 30 HR with a full slate of plate appearances, and could make a run at 20 steals as well. Fewer ground balls (49.7% in 2011) will likely result in a lower batting average (.293), however.
Mike Morse, WAS - Once thought to be a one-year wonder, Morse is now working on almost 900 plate appearances of high-end production, with power (31 HR last year), batting average (.303), and run production (95 RBI). A healthy Ryan Zimmerman and a resurgent Jayson Werth will do wonders for his RBI and runs scored totals.
Billy Butler, KC - Butler hasn't delivered the kind of power we'd hoped for (20+ HR just once in his four seasons), but he hits for average (.290+ last three years) and drives in runs, something he should do more of with a full season of Hosmer batting ahead of him.
Freddie Freeman, ATL - A solid all-around player that will contribute in every category but steals, my one concern is that Freeman hit lefties better in 2011 (.247/.304/.403) than he ever had before. It could be real improvement, but I want to see more at such a young age.
Carlos Pena, TB - It's no secret what Pena is at this point; he's going to flirt with 30+ HR and threaten triple-digit RBI while draining your batting average. The move from Wrigley Field to Tropicana Field will hurt his production a bit.
Ike Davis, NYM - Davis was having a breakout season (.302/7/25 in 36 games) before an ankle injury ended his season in May. His power was big enough to conquer CitiField even before they moved the walls in, so there's some serious breakout potential here if healthy.
Michael Young, TEX - The highest BABIP of his life (.367) was propped up by an astonishingly low fly ball rate (26.5%) that sticks out like a sore thumb compared to the rest of his career. If he starts putting more balls back in the air, his average will come down and so will his value given the lack of power. Young is considerably more valuable at second or third bases.
Ryan Howard, PHI - Howard would obviously rank higher if he was going to be healthy all year, but that achilles problem will sideline him in April, if not longer. You'll get a ton of HR and RBI when he gets back on the field, but the batting average isn't anything to write home about.
Mark Reynolds, BAL - Another all power and run production type with an ugly batting average, Reynolds is right in the prime of his career and could top 40 HR again if he plays first base all season and doesn't have to deal with the wear-and-tear of the hot corner.
Mark Trumbo, LAA - Trumbo could be very useful if he gains third base and/or outfield eligibility, but he's another average killer with big power. Nothing in his track record suggests that he'll start drawing more walks for those of you in OBP leagues.
Michael Cuddyer, COL - Going from Target Field to Coors Field is a dramatic change, and it could help get Cuddyer back in 25 HR territory. He'll hit for an okay average and contribute in most categories, but not an overwhelming amount. Like Young, he has considerably more value at second or third bases.
Gaby Sanchez, FLA - A dynamite first half was sabotaged by a ridiculously slow finish, but Gaby's value will always be tied to his batting average and RBI output because he doesn't hit for much power. Having Jose Reyes atop the lineup will help, but the new ballpark in Miami is an x-factor.
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI - Off-the-charts raw power, but I'm not expecting much in terms of batting average. Assuming he beats out Lyle Overbay for playing time, he'll still be at the platoon disadvantage most of the time as a right-handed bat.
Mitch Moreland, TEX - Moreland was unrosterable in the second half, but he has some pop and is in the right ballpark and lineup to maximize his fantasy output. First base is the one spot where Texas could use a clear upgrade, so his job could be in jeopardy come the trade deadline.
Carlos Lee, HOU - The power is clearly starting go and the lineup around him won't present many RBI and runs scored opportunities, so if anything I might be overrating Lee. It's a contract year though, and a midseason trade to a contender in need of a DH could up his value a bit.
Adam Dunn, CHW - Dunn was so unfathomably bad last season that I can't help but think a rebound is coming. He's in a great hitters' park and isn't over-the-hill yet, so there's really no reason he shouldn't pop 30 HR this year. Then again, we said that last year at this time.
Justin Morneau, MIN - It's all about health. If Morneau is healthy, he's still young enough (31 in May) that 30 HR are within reach, even in Target Field. That's a huge "if" though.

Honorable Mention: Todd Helton, COL; Adam Lind, TOR; Justin Smoak, SEA; Yonder Alonso, SD; Mike Carp, SEA; Lucas Duda, NYM; Casey Kotchman & Derrek Lee, N/A

Other Positions: Catcher

Full Story | Comments (0) | Categories: Fantasy Baseball Rankings | First Basemen

2012 Position Rankings: Catcher

By Mike Axisa [January 19, 2012 at 11:00am CST]

Draft season is rapidly approaching, and over the next few weeks we'll be revealing our position-by-position rankings, starting today with catcher. Unfortunately, one of the best fantasy catchers around will be a non-factor in 2012. Victor Martinez is expected to miss the season after tearing his ACL during an offseason workout, and he almost certainly would have been a top three fantasy backstop because he was going to DH all season, avoiding the physical wear-and-tear while enjoying more plate appearances than other players on our list.

The rankings were put together with an eye on standard 5x5, 12-team mixed leagues, and the slash lines cited are AVG/HR/RBI. We'll go 25 players deep for each position (more for outfielders and pitchers), but hopefully you won't need to go that deep to fill your roster.

Mike Napoli, TEX - I wouldn't expect another .320/30/75 performance again, but Napoli has legitimate all-fields power and is in the right lineup and ballpark to continue putting up gaudy counting stats. He should also see some DH time to maximize his plate appearances.
Brian McCann, ATL - Six straight years of at least .269/18/71 with an average of .287/22/86, and still only 27 years old (28 next month). Sign me up.
Carlos Santana, CLE - Santana came to the plate 105 more times than any other qualified catcher last year because he started 63 games at first base. His batting average will climb out of the low-.200s once his insanely high 17.2% infield fly ball rate comes back to Earth.
Miguel Montero, ARI -Fully healthy and in the prime of his career, Montero put together a .280 average with 16 homers for the second time in the last three years in 2011. He'll continue to hit in the middle of a stacked lineup and in a great ballpark, and is poised for a McCann-esque year.
Joe Mauer, MIN - The 2011 season was a disaster for the former AL MVP, mostly due to injury. Mauer has hit double digit homers just twice in his seven full seasons, and his freakish hand-eye skills might not be enough to overcome his slowing body, meaning those insanely high batting averages could be a thing of the past.
Buster Posey, SF - The collision and ankle injury get all the attenion, but Posey's production (specifically power) was down in the big way before his season ended. An uptick in ground ball rate and general wear-and-tear following the longest season of his life are to blame, but he has too much talent not to rebound at his age.
Matt Wieters, BAL - Wieters doubled his homer output and posted a respectable batting average last year, but his platoon splits are hard to believe. He's Barry Bonds from the right side and Neifi Perez from the left. Unfortunately, there are more right-handers than left-handers in baseball.
Alex Avila, DET - Avila looked worn down in the playoffs after starting 130 games behind the plate, which might carry over into 2012. Expect his .366 BABIP (and his .295 batting average) to drop if he continues put nearly two-thirds of his balls in the play in the air.
Jesus Montero, SEA - His opposite field power can conquer Safeco, so the real question is whether or not he'll qualify at catcher. With Miguel Olivo and John Jaso on the roster, it's not guaranteed.
Wilson Ramos, WAS - Now the undisputed number one in Washington, Ramos has the power to threaten 20 homers even if his batting average isn't anything worth writing home about.
Russell Martin, NYY - He won't ever be the guy he was in 2007 again, but Martin has enough power to flirt with 15+ homers annually and has plenty of help around him in terms of lineup and ballpark. He's probably the only backstop in the game with a chance to steal double-digit bases as well.
Yadier Molina, STL - The youngest Molina brother had the best season of his career in 2011 (.305/14/65) thanks to his lowest ground ball rate in five years. I keep waiting for the catching workload to catch up to him, but it hasn't yet at age 29.
Geovany Soto, CHC - Soto has alternated .280+ and sub-.230 batting averages for four years now, and is due for a good year in 2012. Too bad it doesn't work like that. Soto is still a threat to hit 20 homers despite the shoulder questions.
Chris Iannetta, LAA - The change in ballparks will definitely hurt, but Iannetta should still sock double-digit homers and draw enough walks to have big value for those of you in OBP leagues.
J.P. Arencibia, TOR - He's just keeping the spot warm for Travis d'Arnaud, but only three catchers hit more homers in 2011. He won't hit for a high average or contribute in any other way, however.
Ramon Hernandez, COL - Hernandez has always hit a good average (for a catcher, anyway), and now he's moving to a park that should boost his power. How will playing everyday for the first time in three years affect his 35-year-old body?
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, BOS - Finally healthy in 2011, Salty produced top-15 homer (16) and RBI (56) totals among catchers last season despite coming to the plate fewer than 400 times. There's more to come at age 26, and he'll get an added boost by his teammates and ballpark.
Devin Mesoraco, CIN - The Reds wunderkind has the ability to pop double-digit homers and provide a solid batting average, he just has to wrestle the full-time job away from Ryan Hanigan. That's expected to happen, but probably not on Opening Day.
Carlos Ruiz, PHI - Catchers that can hit for average are rare, and that's pretty much all Ruiz can do. His OBP will be artifically inflated by getting intentionally walked in front of the pitcher, which helps those of you in OBP leagues.
Jonathan Lucroy, MIL - Lucroy's early season power binge didn't last, and nothing in his track record suggested it would. He can still provide double-digit homers and a solid batting average from fantasy's weakest position, however.
Salvador Perez, KC - The 21-year-old quitely produced a .331/3/21 line in 158 plate appearances after being called up, though I wouldn't expect him to continue to hit for that kind of power. He's shown the ability to hit for average throughout the minors.
Rod Barajas, PIT - Another all-power guy, Barajas has hit at least 16 homers in each of the last three seasons. The only other catcher who can make that claim is McCann.
John Buck, FLA - It's not surprising that Buck was unable to replicate his .281/20/66 season with the Blue Jays in 2010 with the Marlins in 2011, but he has legitimate power and an improved lineup around him. The wildcard here is the Marlins' new stadium and its unknown park effects.
Ryan Doumit, MIN - I like Doumit as a sleeper this year since he figures to get plenty of DH at-bats, though Target Field might be a total drain on his home run total.
Miguel Olivo, SEA - Olivo will hit 15 or so homers for your team like clockwork, but he won't do much else. Montero and Jaso will inevitably cut into his playing time, which is a problem.

Honorable Mention: Jaso; Nick Hundley, SD; Kelly Shoppach, BOS; Kurt Suzuki, OAK; A.J. Pierzynski, CHW

Full Story | Comments (0) | Categories: Catchers | Fantasy Baseball Rankings

Starting Pitcher Rankings

By Tim Dierkes [February 27, 2011 at 1:46pm CST]

The wait is over! Our starting pitcher rankings are here. Average draft round from Mock Draft Central is in parentheses. I've been using MDC data because it's easy to work with, but we'll have ADP data from Yahoo, ESPN, and CBS soon.

Tim Lincecum (2) - $37.96
Roy Halladay (2) - $37.18
C.C. Sabathia (5) - $31.21
Justin Verlander (6) - $29.63
Felix Hernandez (3) - $29.51
Dan Haren (5) - $29.13
Clayton Kershaw (5) - $27.59
Jon Lester (4) - $27.36
Zack Greinke (5) - $27.16
Mat Latos (7) - $27.15
Jered Weaver (5) - $25.84
Cliff Lee (4) - $25.27
Chris Carpenter (9) - $24.19
Max Scherzer (9) - $23.98
Cole Hamels (6) - $23.85
Matt Cain (8) - $23.58
Ubaldo Jimenez (4) - $23.33
Josh Johnson (7) - $23.23
Roy Oswalt (9) - $23.16
Tommy Hanson (7) - $22.16
Yovani Gallardo (6) - $21.11
David Price (6) - $20.83
Jeremy Hellickson (15) - $17.80
Colby Lewis (10) - $17.26
Ted Lilly (20) - $17.21
Chad Billingsley (8) - $17.16
Javier Vazquez (16) - $16.48
Dan Hudson (12) - $15.78
Francisco Liriano (7) - $15.44
Phil Hughes (14) - $15.34
C.J. Wilson (19) - $14.91
Shaun Marcum (10) - $14.91
Clay Buchholz (9) - $14.77
Wandy Rodriguez (11) - $14.74
Jonathan Sanchez (14) - $14.74
Ian Kennedy (21) - $14.43
Ricky Nolasco (16) - $14.36
Josh Beckett (15) - $14.21
John Danks (9) - $13.56
Tim Hudson (13) - $13.41
Gio Gonzalez (16) - $13.05
Ryan Dempster (8) - $12.67
Jake Peavy (33) - $12.11
Brett Anderson (14) - $11.95
Brett Myers (14) - $11.89
James Shields (15) - $11.71
Hiroki Kuroda (16) - $11.13
Madison Bumgarner (13) - $10.97
Brandon Morrow (11) - $10.61
Matt Garza (10) - $10.55
Brandon Webb (31) - $10.36
Ervin Santana (21) - $9.82
John Lackey (15) - $9.81
Edinson Volquez (29) - $9.64
Carlos Zambrano (27) - $8.89
Travis Wood (29) - $8.30
Brian Matusz (23) - $8.27
Jaime Garcia (21) - $7.85
Trevor Cahill (8) - $7.61
Bronson Arroyo (31) - $7.60
Jhoulys Chacin (26) - $7.41
Johnny Cueto (27) - $6.90
Jorge de la Rosa (17) - $6.58
Anibal Sanchez (27) - $6.34
Gavin Floyd (13) - $6.24
Jordan Zimmermann (18) - $6.19
Daisuke Matsuzaka (34) - $6.00
Dallas Braden (33) - $5.96
Scott Baker (19) - $5.27
Kevin Slowey (21) - $5.24
Mike Minor (25) - $5.22
Randy Wolf (32) - $5.01
James McDonald (31) - $4.33
Jeff Niemann (33) - $4.14
Jair Jurrjens (16) - $3.88
Phil Coke (Not drafted) - $3.76
Joel Pineiro (Not drafted) - $3.34
Ricky Romero (14) - $3.14
A.J. Burnett (30) - $2.91
Brett Cecil (34) - $2.70
Wade Davis (30) - $2.62
Derek Lowe (33) - $2.38
Carl Pavano (30) - $2.36
Clayton Richard (32) - $2.34
Jonathon Niese (22) - $2.07
Chris Capuano (Not drafted) - $1.69
Edwin Jackson (16) - $1.09
Jake Westbrook (33) - $1.09
Derek Holland (23) - $1.07
Brandon McCarthy (Not drafted) - $1.00
Jeremy Guthrie (Not drafted) - $0.83
Randy Wells (26) - $0.65
Barry Zito (Not drafted) - $0.64
Kyle Drabek (33) - $0.49
Justin Duchscherer (Not drafted) - $0.16
Justin Masterson (33) - $0.01

I've projected 180-200 innings for a lot of guys, because I can't predict exactly who will get hurt. This looks like a very deep group. If you were to draft hitters for your first eight picks and assembled a staff of Scherzer, Oswalt, Hellickson, Lewis, Lilly, and Vazquez, you'd be in good shape. There are probably a dozen additional starters I'd be comfortable mixing and matching in there if you're the type who waits on starting pitching.

A few who have the stuff to outpitch their projections: Jackson, Buchholz, Cueto, Matusz, Davis, Zimmermann, Holland, Morrow...the list goes on. At the end of the draft you definitely want to take a kid with upside and a rotation spot over someone like Westbrook.

Full Story | Comments (0) | Categories: Fantasy Baseball Rankings | Starters

Designated Hitter Rankings

By Tim Dierkes [February 24, 2011 at 9:23pm CST]

Most mixed league players won't lock an actual designated hitter into their team's DH spot, but there are a few to consider. Average draft round from Mock Draft Central is in parentheses.

Vladimir Guerrero (7) - $13.94
David Ortiz (17) - $8.16
Luke Scott (30) - $3.14
Hideki Matsui (28) - $0.87

These guys all have pretty low projected AB totals; Vlad is at 550 and the others are in the 500 range. Scott should qualify at outfield a little bit into the season. Aside from Vlad, most full-time DHs are batting average liabilities with good power and no speed. Further down the list you'll find Jack Cust, Jim Thome, and Travis Hafner.

Full Story | Comments (0) | Categories: Designated Hitters | Fantasy Baseball Rankings

Outfielder Rankings

By Tim Dierkes [February 23, 2011 at 1:41pm CST]

The outfield is next, as we've ranked catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, and third basemen already. These dollar values apply to 5x5 12-team mixed leagues with standard categories. Average draft position from Mock Draft Central is in parentheses. Warning: these are not similar to the rankings you'll find in a standard-issue fantasy magazine at the grocery store. Also, they are subject to change at my whim!

Ryan Braun (1) - $29.25
Carl Crawford (2) - $27.87
Nelson Cruz (3) - $26.68
Carlos Gonzalez (1) - $26.15
Matt Holliday (2) - $24.01
Josh Hamilton (2) - $20.80
Matt Kemp (2) - $19.95
Mike Stanton (13) - $19.94
Shin-Soo Choo (3) - $19.75
Rajai Davis (25) - $16.40
Jayson Werth (5) - $15.63
Juan Pierre (12) - $15.00
Jay Bruce (7) - $14.88
Andrew McCutchen (4) - $14.82
Justin Upton (4) - $14.48
Corey Hart (9) - $13.66
Jason Heyward (5) - $13.57
Hunter Pence (8) - $13.31
Jose Bautista (5) - $13.31
Alex Rios (6) - $13.26
Ichiro Suzuki (3) - $12.99
Ryan Raburn (29) - $12.63
Jacoby Ellsbury (6) - $12.41
Shane Victorino (13) - $12.22
Andre Ethier (4) - $11.70
B.J. Upton (6) - $11.52
Carlos Beltran (24) - $11.24
Chris Young (9) - $11.20
Brett Gardner (17) - $11.10
Curtis Granderson (7) - $11.05
Delmon Young (10) - $10.22
Torii Hunter (8) - $10.19
Coco Crisp (29) - $9.61
Michael Bourn (10) - $9.51
Andres Torres (25) - $9.50
Bobby Abreu (11) - $9.45
Nick Markakis (10) - $9.41
Jose Tabata (23) - $9.07
Drew Stubbs (14) - $8.96
Sean Rodriguez (30) - $8.27
Colby Rasmus (8) - $8.26
Ryan Ludwick (11) - $7.89
Denard Span (15) - $7.82
Chris Coghlan (33) - $7.74
Carlos Quentin (19) - $7.60
Vernon Wells (9) - $7.41
Carlos Lee (12) - $7.18
Adam Jones (16) - $7.07
Nick Swisher (11) - $6.69
Jason Bay (13) - $6.63
Ben Zobrist (11) - $6.62
Travis Snider (26) - $6.32
Austin Jackson (28) - $6.17
Angel Pagan (26) - $6.11
Aubrey Huff (10) - $5.99
Nate McLouth (33) - $5.35
Manny Ramirez (15) - $5.25
Michael Cuddyer (24) - $5.17
Grady Sizemore (9) - $4.96
Logan Morrison (25) - $4.32
Julio Borbon (30) - $4.10
Magglio Ordonez (20) - $4.01
Dexter Fowler (24) - $3.67
Cameron Maybin (Not drafted) - $3.38
Josh Willingham (31) - $2.98
Johnny Damon (22) - $2.73
Michael Brantley (Not drafted) - $2.62
Alfonso Soriano (9) - $2.62
Alex Gordon (34) - $2.18
Jason Kubel (12) - $1.32
Omar Infante (25) - $1.09
Marlon Byrd (31) - $1.00
J.D. Drew (30) - $0.95
Nyjer Morgan (31) - $0.50
Domonic Brown (29) - $0.24
Cody Ross (33) - $0.01

Let's begin with more disclaimers. I am not saying you should draft Stanton in the first or second round, nor am I saying that I think he's a better bet than Choo. Choo has done his thing for two and a half big league seasons, Stanton just a half. The point is more that with 570 ABs I can see Stanton hitting 40 home runs and driving in 110 - and I don't think I'm going out on a limb with that. He's just unproven, and that's why he comes at a discount. Rightfully so.

Others come at a discount because of injury history. Barring a Chipper Jones situation where the guy simply cannot get 550-600 ABs this year, I typically project players for full seasons. So guys like Cruz and Hamilton are getting 550 right now, and you can see that Cruz would be one of the game's top fantasy outfielders if he avoids the DL.

Also, my valuations consistently show that fantasy leaguers undervalue steals. I'm not sure exactly why, but a one steal in a vacuum is worth just as much as one home run (of course, the homer has more residual benefits). Take Davis' projected line of a .281 AVG, 7 HR, 57 RBI, 82 R, and 52 SB. His value would be almost the same if he had a .281 AVG, 52 HR, 82 RBI, 57 R, and 7 SB. Putting aside the rarity of a line like that, if he projected as a 50 HR guy you'd sure as hell draft him earlier than the 25th round. The burners don't have the same aesthetic appeal as the sluggers in fantasy leagues, but they often have similar value. Of course, the value of an SB goes down if you get a ridiculous amount of them, so don't stock up on Davis, Pierre, and Gardner just because of the nice dollar values.

Another important point on my valuations: they are not linear. As a player gets further away from being a $1 guy, his value increases exponentially. A 20% increase in ABs increases value by much more than 20%. For example, if Manny Ramirez gets 600 ABs instead of my projected 500, he goes from $5.25 to $13.74. Players such as Ellsbury, Quentin, Sizemore, Willingham, Soriano, Kubel, and Brown are projected for fewer than 530 ABs right now. If you like them for 575-600 you should draft them earlier.

Overall I've got some aggressive AB projections; I usually prefer to see what a guy can do if he maintains his standing as a regular. So I'm showing you that Raburn can do .273-25-90-86-8 with 575 ABs, but it's up to you on draft day to guess as to whether he'll really get that many ABs. Guys like Crisp, Tabata, Coghlan - they're projected as regulars and I'm not putting them down for DL time right now.

Right now my projections aren't giving huge counting stats to someone like Justin Upton, but the kid is certainly capable of 30 homers, 100 RBIs, and 20 SBs. Don't get boxed in my dollar values and ignore obvious potential.

I always aim for balance, and outfield offers about 13 true five-category guys: Braun, Cruz, CarGo, Holliday, Kemp, Choo, Werth, Justin Upton, Hart, Heyward, Pence, Beltran, and Hunter. That's the group if you limit it to a .280 average, double digit homers and steals, and 80+ RBIs and runs. Guys like Hamilton, Rios, and Jones can creep into that mix too.

Full Story | Comments (0) | Categories: Fantasy Baseball Rankings | Outfielders

Third Baseman Rankings

By Tim Dierkes [February 18, 2011 at 12:41pm CST]

It's time to dissect the hot corner, as we've already ranked catchers, first basemen, second basemen, and shortstops. Average draft position from Mock Draft Central is in parentheses.

Evan Longoria (1) - $24.69
David Wright (1) - $24.46
Alex Rodriguez (2) - $21.56
Ryan Zimmerman (2) - $19.43
Jose Bautista (5) - $17.06
Mark Reynolds (11) - $14.64
Pedro Alvarez (8) - $13.44
Adrian Beltre (5) - $11.07
Pablo Sandoval (13) - $8.91
Aramis Ramirez (9) - $8.72
Casey McGehee (10) - $7.48
Martin Prado (7) - $7.32
Edwin Encarnacion (40) - $6.83
David Freese (41) - $5.14
Ian Stewart (10) - $3.14
Chase Headley (37) - $2.99
Omar Infante (27) - $2.90
Chris Johnson (36) - $2.66
Miguel Tejada (24) - $2.14
Juan Uribe (28) - $0.50

Scott Rolen falls off this list with a 485 AB projection, but if you can plug in someone decent on his off days Rolen performs at more of a $7 pace. It's a similar story for Michael Young, who I can't give more than 450 ABs to right now until his situation clears up. Likewise, Chipper Jones is very much worth owning during times that he is playing regularly. Others to watch who did not make the top 20: Danny Valencia, Brent Morel, and Wilson Betemit. As for Kevin Youkilis, once he qualifies at third base he'll rank fourth on this list at $20.22.

I've given A-Rod 540 ABs, and if you agree he's something of a bargain at 17th overall. But Zimmerman a few picks later is on the upside of his career and is right there in value with A-Rod.

Bautista is this year's Reynolds, minus the 24 bags Reynolds swiped in '09. Fantasy owners are showing extra caution by taking him in the fifth. I like Bautista for 35+ home runs this year, and if he hits .280 instead of .260 you can add three bucks to his value. Reynolds himself will seriously hurt your average at .230 or so, but he too should reach 35 homers along with ten steals if he gets to 550 ABs with Baltimore. Meanwhile Beltre in the fifth round won't be good value if he drops back to .289-23-89-78-5 or so. Maybe I'm not giving him enough credit for playing in Texas.

Alvarez seems in line for 30 homers and 100 RBIs, but fantasy owners are anticipating that by taking him in the eighth round following his solid rookie campaign. I like him, but he's not coming at a discount. I'm not worried about his reported offseason weight gain.

Speaking of weight changes, Sandoval reportedly worked off about 30 pounds. I expect a return to form, but with a short leash given Mark DeRosa's presence.

Encarnacion and Freese are probably the last two draftable third basemen. Their $5-7 projections are predicated on 550+ ABs, a level neither has reached in the bigs. But if they get there I can see EE approach 30 home runs and Freese flirt with 20. I'm not sure why Stewart is going in the tenth round. I've got him at $4.72 ABs which would only be worth a few bucks. If he gets 600 he's up to $13, but you've got Ty Wigginton and Jose Lopez in the mix if he falters.

Full Story | Comments (0) | Categories: Fantasy Baseball Rankings | Third Basemen

Shortstop Rankings

By Tim Dierkes [February 14, 2011 at 1:08pm CST]

We've covered catchers, first basemen, and second basemen, and now it's time to take a look at shortstops. Average draft round from Mock Draft Central is in parentheses.

Hanley Ramirez (1) - $29.82
Troy Tulowitzki (1) - $22.83
Jose Reyes (3) - $19.15
Jimmy Rollins (4) - $15.52
Tsuyoshi Nishioka (37) - $13.82
Rafael Furcal (12) - $10.63
Derek Jeter (5) - $10.39
Alexei Ramirez (8) - $8.40
Elvis Andrus (6) - $5.02
Ian Desmond (19) - $3.70
Starlin Castro (14) - $3.07
Alcides Escobar (37) - $2.64
Stephen Drew (11) - $2.32
Miguel Tejada (25) - $2.07
Alexi Casilla (Not drafted) - $1.00
J.J. Hardy (41) - $0.58
Jason Bartlett (36) - $0.55
Juan Uribe (28) - $0.50
Asdrubal Cabrera (15) - $0.19

My first impression is that the shortstop position is barren in 2011. It's always light, but there are fewer than ten guys I'd feel comfortable drafting in a 12-team mixed league this year.

Hanley and Tulo are being drafted second and fifth overall respectively, and I don't object to that. It is so difficult to find a comparable player that you have to pounce. Reyes in the third round is mighty interesting. I think he'll be right there with Tulo, but as a reminder I like to project full seasons and I have Reyes at 625 ABs.

It's unclear whether Nishioka will play second base or shortstop, but Yahoo currently has him eligible at both positions. I see him as a three-category contributor - .290 average, 100 runs, approaching 30 steals. Even if he doesn't get to those lofty heights you'll probably turn a tidy profit. Of course, there's risk in using an MLB rookie as your starting shortstop.

Not sure why a two-category guy like Andrus would go in the sixth round; maybe that's when people start getting desperate for a shortstop with Jeter off the board. Drew always gets love from drafters, but .270-15-65-80-8 really is a $2-3 performance in a 12-team mixed league.

My advice is to go early for one of my top eight shortstops, and fill your MI slot with a second baseman.

Full Story | Comments (0) | Categories: Fantasy Baseball Rankings | Shortstops

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