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Fantasy Baseball Rankings
Starting Pitcher Rankings
Today let's dive into my starting pitcher rankings for 12-team mixed leagues. Average draft round is in parentheses.
- Tim Lincecum (2) - $41.40
- Roy Halladay (3) - $34.66
- Dan Haren (4) - $33.74
- C.C. Sabathia (3) - $30.31
- Zack Greinke (3) - $30.17
- Felix Hernandez (3) - $28.56
- Justin Verlander (4) - $27.52
- Johan Santana (4) - $27.35
- Adam Wainwright (5) - $25.91
- Javier Vazquez (6) - $25.76
- Josh Beckett (7) - $24.38
- Tommy Hanson (7) - $24.37
- Cole Hamels (9) - $23.32
- Jon Lester (5) - $21.72
- Chris Carpenter (7) - $20.78
- Cliff Lee (5) - $20.28
- Ricky Nolasco (9) - $20.20
- Yovani Gallardo (8) - $19.46
- Jake Peavy (9) - $19.38
- Josh Johnson (6) - $19.01
- Clayton Kershaw (8) - $18.85
- Matt Cain (8) - $18.36
- Chad Billingsley (11) - $18.00
- James Shields (11) - $17.81
- Phil Hughes (27) - $16.53
- Ubaldo Jimenez (9) - $16.26
- Wandy Rodriguez (10) - $16.09
- Jair Jurrjens (12) - $15.08
- Ted Lilly (15) - $14.93
- Scott Baker (13) - $14.88
- Brett Anderson (13) - $14.40
- Matt Garza (11) - $13.78
- Ryan Dempster (15) - $13.43
- John Lackey (11) - $13.38
- Jered Weaver (12) - $12.68
- Roy Oswalt (14) - $12.56
- Rich Harden (19) - $12.04
- A.J. Burnett (11) - $11.64
- Max Scherzer (13) - $10.81
- Aaron Harang (22) - $10.38
- Brandon Webb (12) - $10.19
- Kevin Slowey (19) - $10.03
- Colby Lewis (N/A) - $9.69
- Stephen Strasburg (26) - $9.56
- Jonathan Sanchez (20) - $8.87
- Clay Buchholz (17) - $8.83
- Joe Blanton (25) - $8.75
- Carlos Zambrano (15) - $8.52
- Randy Wolf (18) - $8.43
- Scott Kazmir (15) - $8.07
- Johnny Cueto (19) - $7.08
- Neftali Feliz (15) - $7.08
- Jorge de la Rosa (17) - $6.93
- Francisco Liriano (20) - $6.53
- John Danks (14) - $6.45
- David Price (15) - $5.77
- J.A. Happ (22) - $5.30
- Gavin Floyd (16) - $5.10
- Ervin Santana (20) - $4.94
- Tim Hudson (18) - $4.76
- Daisuke Matsuzaka (17) - $4.73
- Mat Latos (28) - $4.35
- Erik Bedard (20) - $4.29
- Bronson Arroyo (28) - $3.71
- Ben Sheets (19) - $3.32
- Kevin Correia (23) - $3.18
- Mark Buehrle (20) - $3.07
- Jeff Niemann (19) - $3.00
- Hiroki Kuroda (22) - $2.85
- Wade Davis (27) - $2.81
- Brett Myers (28) - $2.81
- Andy Pettitte (18) - $2.58
- Edwin Jackson (15) - $2.50
- Derek Lowe (27) - $2.09
- Kenshin Kawakami (36) - $1.83
- Randy Wells (28) - $1.75
- Ryan Rowland-Smith (N/A) - $1.56
- Justin Masterson (N/A) - $1.55
- Joel Pineiro (24) - $1.00
- Clayton Richard (28) - $0.62
- Jason Hammel (28) - $0.21
The top tier pitchers seem to be valued appropriately, with the possible exception of Hamels. Maybe you don't want to wait until the 10th round to take a pitcher, but you could wait until the 7th or 8th and create a very strong staff. Brad Penny, Brian Matusz, and Marc Rzepczynski just missed my cut for positive mixed league value, but that doesn't mean they're junk. At a certain point it's wise to ignore projections and rankings and fill out your staff with pitchers you like, guys with good stuff. Maybe that means Buchholz, Feliz, and Liriano - there are probably a dozen pitchers on this list with the ability to destroy their projections.
Designated Hitter Rankings
Only three DHs have positive value for me in a typical 12-team 5x5 mixed league...
- Vladimir Guerrero (12) - $9.22
- David Ortiz (17) - $7.53
- Hideki Matsui (22) - $2.87
I have Vlad and Papi at 525 ABs, Matsui at 500. If you see them getting more, add a buck or two. Travis Hafner, Troy Glaus, Jim Thome, and Pat Burrell did not make my cut for positive mixed league fantasy value. These guys generally have projected ABs of 400 or so, but Glaus doesn't make the cut even with 525.
Outfielder Rankings
Time for our outfield rankings for 12-team 5x5 mixed leagues with 14 hitters and 9 pitchers. Average draft round is in parentheses.
- Ryan Braun (1) - $31.37
- Matt Kemp (1) - $26.52
- Carl Crawford (2) - $25.14
- Jacoby Ellsbury (2) - $23.34
- Matt Holliday (2) - $21.67
- Nelson Cruz (6) - $19.97
- Grady Sizemore (3) - $18.89
- Jayson Werth (3) - $16.56
- Justin Upton (3) - $16.06
- Carlos Lee (6) - $15.23
- Nick Markakis (5) - $14.36
- Andrew McCutchen (8) - $14.20
- B.J. Upton (5) - $13.59
- Rajai Davis (14) - $13.28
- Curtis Granderson (5) - $13.19
- Michael Bourn (8) - $13.09
- Jay Bruce (11) - $13.06
- Juan Pierre (20) - $12.76
- Jason Bay (3) - $12.53
- Shin-Soo Choo (6) - $12.38
- Adam Lind (4) - $12.19
- Ben Zobrist (5) - $12.07
- Bobby Abreu (7) - $11.89
- Shane Victorino (6) - $11.62
- Julio Borbon (17) - $11.62
- Hunter Pence (8) - $11.28
- Adam Jones (8) - $10.94
- Chris Coghlan (20) - $10.67
- Manny Ramirez (6) - $10.66
- Ichiro Suzuki (4) - $10.40
- Andre Ethier (6) - $10.17
- Torii Hunter (9) - $10.01
- Denard Span (11) - $9.95
- Josh Hamilton (5) - $9.76
- Nate McLouth (8) - $8.91
- Adam Dunn (5) - $8.84
- Nyjer Morgan (11) - $8.56
- Carlos Quentin (9) - $8.21
- Johnny Damon (11) - $7.85
- Garrett Jones (13) - $7.30
- Alex Rios (10) - $6.99
- Alfonso Soriano (7) - $6.88
- Carlos Gonzalez (11) - $6.34
- Franklin Gutierrez (22) - $6.21
- Corey Hart (17) - $6.04
- Carlos Beltran (8) - $5.68
- Cody Ross (26) - $5.63
- Michael Cuddyer (10) - $5.54
- Nolan Reimold (17) - $5.40
- Ryan Ludwick (16) - $5.33
- Kyle Blanks (27) - $5.10
- Jason Kubel (10) - $4.65
- Travis Snider (21) - $4.49
- Magglio Ordonez (25) - $3.96
- Brad Hawpe (10) - $3.67
- Raul Ibanez (8) - $3.66
- Cameron Maybin (25) - $3.65
- Vernon Wells (17) - $3.46
- Jermaine Dye (16) - $3.44
- Coco Crisp (28) - $3.34
- Carlos Gomez (20) - $3.16
- Conor Jackson (27) - $2.86
- Jake Fox (28) - $2.45
- Juan Rivera (15) - $2.30
- Mark DeRosa (21) - $2.25
- Matt Diaz (N/A) - $1.95
- Marlon Byrd (26) - $1.93
- Jeff Francoeur (28) - $1.65
- Josh Willingham (22) - $1.63
- Scott Podsednik (28) - $1.57
- Drew Stubbs (27) - $1.41
- Mike Cameron (21) - $1.14
- Nick Swisher (21) - $1.00
- Ryan Raburn (28) - $0.91
- Brett Gardner (28) - $0.54
Is it possible that Cruz is being undervalued again, following a 33 HR, 20 SB season in 462 ABs? I think so. I also feel that Carlos Lee has slipped too far. McCutchen is a nice upside pick - I have him at .279-16-67-97-32 in 625 ABs, but I could see more.
Davis would need 550 ABs to get my projected 81 runs and 54 SBs. Similarly, Pierre's ranking comes with a 625 AB projection, Borbon's 575 ABs. Keep an eye on Bruce as a breakout candidate. Coghlan, Garrett Jones, Hart, Gutierrez, and Ross all appear undervalued. It's important to pay attention to those who are expected to steal double-digit bags and those who aren't.
On the overvalued side, Bay scares me in the 3rd round. Ichiro in the 4th is also worrisome, if he stays below 30 SB. Ibanez looks questionable as well.
Third Baseman Rankings
Next up, our third baseman rankings for 12-team mixed 5x5 leagues using 14 hitters (including one 3B and a CI) and 9 pitchers. I moved the games played requirement from 20 to 10 to gel with Yahoo leagues. Average draft round is in parentheses.
- Alex Rodriguez (1) - $27.55
- David Wright (2) - $22.74
- Evan Longoria (1) - $20.11
- Mark Reynolds (2) - $18.19
- Ryan Zimmerman (3) - $16.19
- Kevin Youkilis (3) - $14.80
- Pablo Sandoval (4) - $14.38
- Chone Figgins (7) - $12.72
- Aramis Ramirez (6) - $11.81
- Gordon Beckham (8) - $10.42
- Ian Stewart (11) - $8.10
- Michael Young (8) - $7.19
- Adrian Beltre (16) - $5.52
- Jorge Cantu (15) - $4.49
- Martin Prado (20) - $4.35
- Alex Gordon (19) - $4.21
- Mark DeRosa (21) - $3.78
- Chipper Jones (12) - $3.32
- Garrett Atkins (24) - $2.79
- Kevin Kouzmanoff (28) - $2.28
- Jake Fox (28) - $2.22
- Chase Headley (21) - $0.11
- Edwin Encarnacion (27) - $0.03
- Jhonny Peralta (18) - $0.03
Aramis has a 525 AB projection; 575 would boost him above Youkilis. Beckham is a solid upside pick with position flexibility, as he'll play second base for the Sox. Stewart is projected at 520 ABs and would move up a few spots with more.
Beltre, Gordon, and Fox are some later picks that could be mild sleepers. Chipper in the 12th round, not a fan.
Shortstop Rankings
Today let's rank shortstops, using AVG, HR, RBI, R, and SB. This is for 12-team mixed leagues employing 14 hitters and 9 pitchers (including one 2B, one SS, and an MI).
- Hanley Ramirez (1) - $28.88
- Jose Reyes (2) - $23.86
- Jimmy Rollins (2) - $18.81
- Troy Tulowitzki (2) - $17.28
- Derek Jeter (4) - $13.38
- Asdrubal Cabrera (13) - $10.88
- Everth Cabrera (21) - $8.41
- Elvis Andrus (13) - $8.21
- Alexei Ramirez (10) - $7.75
- Miguel Tejada (12) - $6.86
- Erick Aybar (17) - $6.59
- Alcides Escobar (23) - $6.49
- Jason Bartlett (9) - $5.06
- Yunel Escobar (13) - $4.62
- Orlando Cabrera (16) - $3.15
- Rafael Furcal (12) - $2.06
- Stephen Drew (10) - $1.75
- Marco Scutaro (18) - $1.50
- Ryan Theriot (23) - $1.00
- Jhonny Peralta (18) - $0.16
- J.J. Hardy (23) - $0.14
The Big Three has officially become the Big Four, as Tulo is firmly in the mix with Reyes and Rollins. Hanley continues to stand alone. Reyes is riskier than Rollins given last year's hamstring surgery. Rollins had an off-year too, but at least stayed healthy. Given his 2009, I can see why folks are taking Tulo over Reyes and Rollins.
Asdrubal Cabrera is an intriguing 13th round choice. A June shoulder injury kept his ABs down, but if he's healthy he should get 600. That could mean something like .292-10-76-97-19.
Everth Cabrera, Andrus, and Escobar are similar to me - guys who could steal 30-40 and score 80+ runs. I wouldn't overextend for Andrus, who goes much earlier than the other two. Alexei fits the power/speed bill, while most others offer only one of those traits. Bartlett and Drew are a couple of 9th-10th round choices that don't thrill me.
Second Baseman Rankings
Time for RotoAuthority's second baseman rankings for 5x5 12-team mixed leagues using 14 hitters (including a 2B, SS, and MI) and 9 pitchers. These are subject to change. Average draft round in parentheses.
- Chase Utley (1) - $22.83
- Ian Kinsler (2) - $20.29
- Dustin Pedroia (4) - $16.64
- Brandon Phillips (3) - $16.08
- Brian Roberts (4) - $14.50
- Ben Zobrist (5) - $14.25
- Robinson Cano (4) - $13.16
- Asdrubal Cabrera (13) - $12.63
- Aaron Hill (5) - $10.46
- Dan Uggla (8) - $9.70
- Ian Stewart (11) - $9.55
- Jose Lopez (11) - $7.61
- Kelly Johnson (28) - $7.28
- Martin Prado (23) - $6.00
- Howie Kendrick (12) - $5.29
- Rickie Weeks (17) - $5.03
- Placido Polanco (22) - $4.12
- Clint Barmes (26) - $3.49
- Akinori Iwamura (28) - $0.83
- Orlando Hudson (17) - $0.38
- Adam Kennedy (28) - $0.18
Zobrist lacks the track record, but he could be a bargain in round five. That's with a .273-26-80-91-15 projection. We're projecting Cabrera at 600 ABs currently, and if he gets there he could be a 13th-round steal. If Hill comes back to Earth and hits a respectable 25 HR, you may regret making him a fifth-round pick.
Stewart could be a poor man's Uggla, and I'd add $5 to his projection if he gets 600 ABs. Former teammates Johnson and Prado look like bargains, with Johnson getting a 530 AB projection for the D'Backs and Prado 600 ABs for the Braves. Kendrick and Weeks are both in the 450-460 AB range, and they'd jump up the list with healthy 600 AB seasons. Both still have top five potential, and you can get Weeks pretty late.
First Baseman Rankings
Our tentative first baseman rankings, for a 12-team mixed league using AVG, HR, RBI, R, and SB and 14 active hitters. These are subject to change, and I'm open to arguments in the comments. Current average draft round is in parentheses.
- Albert Pujols (1) - $32.49
- Miguel Cabrera (1) - $23.44
- Prince Fielder (1) - $22.23
- Ryan Howard (1) - $21.80
- Mark Teixeira (1) - $20.69
- Joey Votto (3) - $20.62
- Mark Reynolds (2) - $17.80
- Kevin Youkilis (3) - $14.58
- Adrian Gonzalez (3) - $14.46
- Pablo Sandoval (4) - $14.18
- Lance Berkman (6) - $13.26
- Justin Morneau (4) - $13.06
- Kendry Morales (5) - $12.05
- Adam Dunn (5) - $10.30
- Derrek Lee (8) - $10.04
- Carlos Pena (7) - $9.16
- Garrett Jones (13) - $8.86
- Billy Butler (8) - $8.83
- Adam LaRoche (21) - $8.23
- Michael Cuddyer (10) - $7.22
- Chris Davis (14) - $6.46
- James Loney (20) - $6.10
- Jorge Cantu (15) - $4.81
- Paul Konerko (20) - $4.21
- Garrett Atkins (25) - $3.20
- Nick Swisher (22) - $2.97
- Todd Helton (19) - $2.39
- Aubrey Huff (28) - $0.77
Cabrera, Fielder, Howard, Teixeira - I value all four similarly. Cabrera wins right now because he's the only one projected to hit over .300. With 575 ABs Votto could be right there with them, and he could be the one swiping more than five bags. As a third-round pick he's a mild bargain.
Berkman in the sixth round is another potential value pick, as he could match several guys picked in the third. With a poor batting average but 12 projected steals, Jones is someone to consider at CI. But he deserves to be in the 13rd round range until he proves 2009 wasn't a fluke. Butler is going pretty early, in the 8th round. You probably won't regret the pick, yet taking him that early means paying for a level of performance he hasn't reached yet. I was among many fantasy owners burned by Davis last year, and he's dropped eight rounds. The 30 HR potential remains if you can stomach a questionable AVG, though Justin Smoak is knocking on the door.
Catcher Rankings
It's time to bust out our tentative catcher rankings for two-catcher, 12-team mixed leagues using AVG, HR, RBI, R, and SB. These are subject to change, and I'm open to arguments in the comments. Current average draft round is in parentheses.
- Joe Mauer (2) - $30.33
- Brian McCann (4) - $23.19
- Victor Martinez (3) - $20.43
- Matt Wieters (9) - $17.41
- Russell Martin (12) - $16.85
- Mike Napoli (15) - $15.67
- Geovany Soto (13) - $13.65
- Kurt Suzuki (12) - $12.72
- Ryan Doumit (18) - $10.80
- Jorge Posada (10) - $10.30
- Bengie Molina (14) - $9.91
- Miguel Montero (13) - $9.55
- A.J. Pierzynski (22) - $8.26
- Chris Iannetta (16) - $8.16
- Yadier Molina (20) - $7.75
- Kelly Shoppach (27) - $5.52
- Ramon Hernandez (26) - $5.44
- Carlos Ruiz (23) - $5.02
- John Buck (28) - $3.88
- John Baker (27) - $3.53
- Jarrod Saltalamacchia (27) - $3.38
- Gerald Laird (27) - $1.52
- Nick Hundley (28) - $1.20
- Gregg Zaun (not drafted) - $1.00
The problem with projecting a lot of these guys is figuring out playing time. How many ABs will Napoli, Doumit, Posada, Montero, Iannetta, Shoppach, Hernandez, and Baker get? Right now we can only guess; the projections will be refined if managers are revealing during Spring Training.
We're calling for a bit of a bounceback for Martin, and he is the one real SB threat, but I'm still wary. If you decide to take a pass on the Big Three, I'd attempt to get Wieters and/or Soto in rounds 9-13. Those two could enter McCann/V-Mart territory depending on their spots in the batting order.
Joba Chamberlain's 2009 Innings
Recently a reader pointed out a bold projection from Ron Shandler and company at Baseball HQ: 199 innings for Joba Chamberlain in 2009. Most forecasters agree that Joba's ERA, WHIP, and K/9 will be very strong in '09, but with that innings total you'd have to consider him a top five fantasy starter. Mock drafters are taking Chamberlain in the 9th round on average, indicating concern that his innings will be limited by the Yankees, his health, or a midseason move to the 'pen.
I asked eleven of my favorite baseball writers to predict Chamberlain's 2009 regular season Major League innings total. Here are the results:
- Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus: 175
- Peter Abraham, The Lohud Journal: 160
- Ken Rosenthal, FOX Sports: 155
- Peter Gammons, ESPN: 145
- Joe Pawlikowski, River Ave. Blues: 142
- Jerry Crasnick, ESPN: 142
- Ken Davidoff, Newsday: 141.6
- Rick Wilton, Baseball Injury Report: 140
- Rob Neyer, ESPN: 137.6
- Keith Law, ESPN: 125
- Jon Heyman, SI: 109
The average comes to 142.9 innings. If Joba pitches 143 innings, I'd rank him 18th among fantasy starters - after Cliff Lee but before Rich Harden. It's quite conceivable that Chamberlain could have more fantasy value (in just 143 innings) than John Lackey, Felix Hernandez, Scott Kazmir, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, who are all being drafted before him.
As we mentioned in the Max Scherzer post, Chamberlain will probably pitch well if he's healthy and hit the disabled list otherwise. If he's on the DL, you can take the best available waiver wire arm. 143 innings from Joba plus 50 from the waiver wire probably equals a top ten starter. Scherzer, Harden, and Randy Johnson may be underrated in a similar fashion.
A Few Thoughts On Bruce Chen
I noticed this comment by ESPN's Tristan Cockcroft today in a chat:
"I can't believe no one is talking more about Bruce Chen, especially with Mazzone now in Baltimore. Everyone seems to focus on Daniel Cabrera and Erik Bedard as the breakout candidates, but Chen has pitched pretty well for the Orioles of late. I think he's a lot better candidate to repeat his 2005 totals than people think; it's not like he lacks the talent to be a successful pitcher. Plus, he hasn't been picked in a single one of my mixed drafts to this point. I'd take a flier on him."
Interesting case, Bruce Chen. He surprised many with a career high 13 wins in 2005. It was his age 28 season, and he also posted a 3.83 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. His strikeout rate was league average, and 197 innings was a career high.
Chen gives up a lot of home runs, but he's a solid back of the rotation type. I project him at 11 wins with a 4.08 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this year. PECOTA calls for 4.24 and 1.32. This ain't bad, but Chen is waiver wire material in mixed leagues. I project his value at $1.58. Still, I'd take him over guys like Jarrod Washburn and Mike Mussina.
Bedard doesn't project a whole lot better, but he's gotten a lot more press. I have Cabrera valued over $7, however. He could rack up 175 Ks and an ERA around 3.50.
Still, if you're searching for boring back-rotation guys, why not take the safe money? I think Paul Byrd, Greg Maddux, and Jon Lieber will be better than any of the previously mentioned starters and have better health/performance track records. Control pitchers don't get your blood pumping, but you should take these guys over Cabrera.
Liebs especially could surprise some folks. 220 innings from him means 150 Ks, and his WHIP is always near 1.20. He could win 15-16 games in 2006. He posted a 3.28 ERA after the break in '05, and with just a couple less HRs could post a 3.75 ERA in '06. Underrated fantasy starter.
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