Fantasy Baseball Rankings

2013 Position Rankings: Value Changers

Each year things seem to happen in Spring Training. Good things, like injured players coming back quicker than expected, or sleepers clubbing their way into jobs. Bad things, like setbacks and new injuries. Other things, like trades, job changes, and the end of position battles. 

I hate all of these things, because they upset my neatly crafted rankings. Speaking of which, check out Starting Pitchers 1-40, 41-80, Relievers, Shortstops, Third Basemen, Second Basemen, First Basemen, Catchers, and  Outfielders.

Below is a selection of players that we ranked that should now be shooting up, plummeting, or doing something rather less drastic.

Catchers

Down: Mike Napoli (Rounds 5-6, ranked 7th)
Poor Napoli seems to be feeling good and playing well, so why is he downgraded? It's just a strategic move, as he's going a lot later in many drafts. If you can pay less, you should. I'd wait till the 7th or 8th, but his position relative to others stays the same.

First Basemen

Down: David Ortiz (Rounds 7-8, ranked 11.5)
Ortiz isn't eligible at first in every league, but he will be starting the year on the DL in every league. The Red Sox don't have a timetable for his return, and I hate drafting anyone in that situation. I'd wait until the 15th round, at the earliest, making him number 26 or 27 among first basemen.

Up: Corey Hart (Round 21 and Beyond, ranked 33rd)
Hart we knew was injured, but the news out of the Brewers' camp has been more positive than not, with an early or mid-May return possible. Like any other injury-stash, he's more valuable in H2H leagues, and less in any league without DL slots. I wouldn't go as high as the 15th Round with him, but I'd snag him in the 17th or 18th, slotting him in right behind Ortiz.

Second Basemen

Up: Emilio Bonifacio (20th-22nd Rounds, 21.5)
If your league's eligibility requirement is 15 games or lower, Bonifacio's value could be going up, thanks to a bad spring from Maicer Izturis. If he's stealing bases in the Toronto lineup, he could be a great value. Consider bumping him up to the 18th-19th Rounds, and perhaps the 16th or 17th player at second base. I'm not so excited if he's just an outfielder.

Shortstops

Down: Hanley Ramirez (3rd Round, 2nd)
I was excited for Hanley to start the year, but a jammed thumb and torn ligament have him sidelined for eight weeks. He doesn't seem to be falling all that far, but really, he's going to be out until late May, with the ever-present possibility of setbacks for more. I'm staying away completely, but if you want to draft him, wait until the 7th round at the earliest, after Ian Desmond is gone. That would make him the 7th shortstop taken.

Down: Derek Jeter (12th-13th Rounds, 9th)
Jeter is another guy that I'd been more exited than most about, only to run into his injury issues. He's only "questionable" for Opening Day, but those questions seem worth letting him drop a couple rounds for, to the 14th or 15th. Upon further review, I'd probably want to take him after Alcides Escobar and Elvis Andrus, who are probably worth taking a little higher in light of Jeter's and Ramirez's injuries. That would make Jeter the 12th SS taken.

Third Basemen

Down: Chase Headley (5th Round, 7th)
Headley is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, which could easily push his return into early May. I really don't like having a stud player miss that much time, because it forces me to draft a bum for the position and play him for a month. Again, this isn't so bad in H2H, since September playoffs determine the whole season, but it really hurts in standard Roto. I honestly wouldn't take Headley until the 11th or 12th rounds, until Will Middlebrooks and Todd Frazier are off the board.

Down: Pablo Sandoval (7th-8th Rounds, 9th)
Sandoval's situation has more optimism than Headley's, as his manager hopes he'll be able to play on Opening Day. However, the Panda's sketchy health history has me a little skeptical. I'd let him drop into the 10th or 11th Round, but he actually becomes the  8th player at the position, thanks to Headley's lost value.

Down: Mike Olt (20th-22nd Rounds, 23rd)
I had expected Olt to start in the bigs, and see time at first, third, and DH, kind of like Michael Young did last year. Not so much, as he was sent down to the minors. I'd save him for waiver bait in most leagues.

Outfielders

Down: Curtis Granderson (3rd Round, 13th)
Granderson isn't scheduled to return until late May, and a wrist injury stands the chance of reducing his power going forward. In a H2H league, I'd be willing to snag him in the 10th round, making him the 33rd OF. In standard Roto or any other format without playoffs, I'd wait until the 12th or 13th, slotting him in after Andre Ethier at 43 or so.

Down: Adam Eaton (14th-16th Round, 52nd)
Eaton will be missing two months or so, by which time the Diamondbacks might just be happy with the production they get from Jason Kubel, Cody Ross, and Gerardo Parra. I'd leave Eaton for the waiver wire in most leagues, but I'd be willing to draft Kubel and Ross several slots higher.

Up: Carl Crawford (14th-16th Rounds, 55th)
A month ago, things weren't so optimistic for Crawford, with the talk being that he'd probably have to start on the DL. Between that prospect and his complete awfulness for the last two years, that had him buried on all my lists. Well, he was just as terrible in the past, but at least he looks like he might be starting the year healthy. With that to limit his downside, his upside becomes intriguing again. I'd grab him in the 12th-13th Rounds, around number 45 or so.

Up: Domonic Brown (unranked)
Brown had been a big disappointment for fantasy owners the last couple years, but he's been tearing up Spring Training. Like Steve Adams, I don't really care about most Spring stats, but his are so good that the Phillies don't have much choice but to give him another chance. If they're giving Brown a chance, I could too, among the guys in the 15th-16th Rounds, maybe around number 52. In fact, you could just trade him with Eaton in your rankings if you're feeling lazy.

Starting Pitchers

Down: Roy Halladay (Rounds 7-8, 23rd)
Another guy I was bullish on! Halladay's Spring hasn't had much of anything good happen to it, and I'm a lot more nervous to take him than I was. I'm not really comfortable with him as more than my number three starter now, which means I'd want to take him in the 8th or 9th Round, in most cases. I'll take the risk as the 30th or so pitcher taken. 

Up: Zack Greinke (Rounds 5-6, 17th)
Greinke was looking pretty rough a little while ago, but the most recent reports have been a lot better. For that reason, I still want him in the same timeframe, but perhaps as high as pitcher number 11. 

Up: Chad Billingsley (unranked)
Billingsley now appears to be healthy enough to start the season, so he makes a pretty good back of the rotation option for late rounds, perhaps around 19th-20, putting him 77th or so among starters. So, not super exciting.

Down: Chris Capuano (Rounds 17th-18th, 74th), Hyun-Jin Ryu (unranked)
With Billingsley and Greinke looking healthy, expect these guys to be edged out of the rotation. Unless something changes, don't draft them.

Up: Julio Teheran (unranked)
 Teheran has pitched well, and has always had good upside. It appears that he'll be getting starts for the Braves, so I'd be happy to snag him in the 18th-19th Rounds, maybe as the 70th pitcher taken

Down: Trevor Bauer (Rounds 17th-18th, 71st)
He was sent down, so leave him for the waiver wire. 

Down: Johan Santana (Rounds 17th-18th, 76th)
Santana isn't looking healthy, so I'm not so excited to take the risk on him anymore. It appears that he'll be unavailable to start the season. With better DL stash options out there, I'll be leaving him and my memories of 2004 on the waiver wire.

Down: Phil Hughes (Rounds 13th-14th, 50th)
Hughes might not be ready for Opening Day either, so I'd drop him down to the 17th-18th Rounds, around number 67-68. Of course, he may end up being healthy, so don't let him slip too far.

Relief Pitchers

Up: Aroldis Chapman (Rounds 7th-8th, 26th SP)
With his move to closer official, Chapman loses upside, but he also loses a huge portion of his risk. I'd make him the second closer taken, probably in the 6th or 7th Round. 

Down: Jonathan Broxton (15th-16th Round, 18th)
Broxton moves up...in holds leagues. So much for his value in standard formats, as many other non-closers will post better strikeout numbers.

Down: Jason Motte (8th-9th Round, 5th)
News just came in that Motte has injured his elbow, and will almost certainly start the season on the DL. How much more he might miss is up in the air. I like to avoid pitchers in this situation, so, to be safe, let him drop a long ways in your draft. Hopefully he won't be out too long, and hopefully there will be a more solid timetable before you draft. For now, Mitchell Boggs will be getting first crack at saves in St. Louis. 

Chances are, things will change again in the last week of the season, but the good news is that your draft will happen and you won't have to worry about overpaying for an injured has-been, or missing out on a star prospect who hasn't quite won a job. No, instead, you'll have a whole team full of commitments to players whose value could still change on a bad hop or a tough slide. 

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2013 Position Rankings: Starting Pitchers 1-40

You've waited a long time for these (two whole days!), so I'll keep the intro short. Starting pitching is deep again this year, so expect more from your staff. Don't go accepting WHIP's of 1.30, or K/9 rates of 6.8% if you don't have to. Whether you believe in piling on starters early, or waiting for the sake of your offense, there's plenty of good pitching to fill in mixed league staffs. It's getting great pitching that's the trick. The very best will give you all four categories in spades, all for a low level of risk. Yeah, not so many guys fit that bill.

Monday featured the pitchers ranked 41-80, not to mention a hoard of deep-league fill-ins. Before that, we ranked the Relievers and all the hitters Shortstops, Third Basemen, Second Basemen, First Basemen, Catchers, and  Outfielders. Today's rankings come from a team discussion, featuring Tim Dierkes and the entire RotoAuthority staff. As always, they're divided into groups of similar value, and tiered by where they deserve to be drafted in a standard league. If you're bidding in an auction, consider players in the same tier to be of similar price.

Different leagues will take starters at different paces, and slight variations in scoring systems can completely change the value of pitchers relative to position players. Because of this, the round labels on these tiers are a looser guideline than for other positions.

1st Round

1. Stephen Strasburg, WAS

I've said before that Strasburg is the top pitcher, and the only one to belong in the first round--I'm certainly not going back on it now. He gives you Wins, ERA, and WHIP to equal anyone else in baseball, and piles on the strikeouts. If I'm choosing between him and a broken down OF, I know who to take.

2nd Round

2. Justin Verlander, DET
3. Clayton Kershaw, LAD

Just as Strasburg is alone in the first, no one belongs with this pair in the second. Verlander's longer track record gives him the slightest of edges in my book. If you disagree, that's fine, because either is a great choice.

3rd-4th Rounds

4. Cole Hamels, PHI
5. Felix Hernandez, SEA
6. Cliff Lee, PHI
7. R.A. Dickey, TOR
8. David Price, TBR
9. CC Sabathia, NYY
10. Adam Wainwright, STL

Hamels does everything, just like the top three...but he does just a little less. Also, the Phillies don't have the offense they used to. With a better lineup, you could take Hernandez with Verlander and Kershaw, easily. Lee's age worries some, but I'm all about that 7.39 K/BB rate. Knuckleballers scare people, and so does anything they didn't see coming, so this ranking for Dickey is bold. I figure he can regress a lot and still be a top-flight pitcher, enjoying the run support in Toronto. Price is a great pitcher and a rising star, but he did overperform his FIP by almost half a run (0.49, actually); it's not that I'm down on him, just that my expectations are a little tempered. So far, Sabathia has been on schedule, which means he'll just keep dominating for a New York team that will find some way to get him run support. Keep an eye on his health, though. Speaking of health, Wainwright seems to have it back, which means he's one of baseball's best again.

Rounds 5-6

11. Gio Gonzalez, WAS
12. Madison Bumgarner, SFG
13. Max Scherzer, DET
14. Yu Darvish, TEX
15. Matt Cain, SFG
16. Mat Latos, CIN
17. Zack Greinke, LAD
18. Yovani Gallardo, MIL
19. James Shields

Gonzalez has a PED investigation hanging over his head, but the walks are a bigger cloud for me. Bumgarner fizzled a little at the end of the year, but his overall trend is still sky-high. Scherzer and Darvish are like Strasburg with the strikeouts, but like Monday's pitchers for WHIP. We all believe that Cain's actual performance beats his advanced metrics...but he still doesn't get enough strikeouts to be fully elite. Latos improved considerably after an abysmal start, and he gets to pitch in front of a great lineup. Health issues loom over Greinke's status, but his talent should flourish in his NL return and a pitcher's park. Gallardo more than makes up for his walks with all those strikeouts. Shields will miss the run and park support he had in Tampa Bay.

7th-8th Rounds

20. Chris Sale, CHW
21. Johnny Cueto, CIN
22. Jered Weaver, LAA
23. Roy Halladay, PHI
24. Kris Medlen, ATL
25. Ian Kennedy, ARI
26. Aroldis Chapman, CIN
27. Jordan Zimmermann, WAS
28. Jake Peavy, CHW
29. Jeff Samardzija, CHC
30. Matt Moore, TBR 

Sale slowed down over the course of the season, and will be expected to pitch even more innings next year--there is considerable downside here to go with his great potential. Cueto doesn't miss enough bats to be an ace, but he's a very good pitcher on a very good team. Though he has the reputation of being more, so is Weaver. That sub 7.00 K/9 doesn't hold up very well unless you win 20 games and outperform your FIP by nearly a run. I would have put Halladay up a lot higher, but his springtime troubles make me worry about lingering injury or imminent decline. Medlen's amazing third of a season has people excited for good reason. A little too excited, but still, he's very worth owning. Kennedy's ERA was higher than I'd like last year, but his peripherals still looked good; I anticipate a rebound. Chapman might be returning to the bullpen, but this is where I'd take the chance if he does start. Zimmermann is a quietly high-quality starter. Peavy proved his critics wrong (and had me kicking myself for not taking him when I had the chance) last year, but his fragility still hurts his value. Samardzija proved to be a strikeout wizard. Another season like that and he'll join the near-elite. Moore could make a big jump, and that potential is part of his price tag. Fortunately, he's already quite good.

Rounds 9-10

31. Josh Johnson, TOR
32. Jon Niese, NYM
33. Homer Bailey, CIN
34. A.J. Burnett, PIT
35. Tim Lincecum, SFG
36. Anibal Sanchez, DET
37. Marco Estrada, MIL
38. Doug Fister, DET
39. Brandon Morrow, TOR
40. Lance Lynn, STL

To me, there's a pretty big jump between the pitchers in Rounds 7-8, and those in 9-10. Johnson had an uncharacteristic 2012: he was healthy and non-elite. If he stays healthy, and returns to form, than he's a top ten pitcher in Toronto. If he stays healthy and stays the same, he's still a very good pitcher to have. If he stays healthy. Niese has gone two years in a row striking out over three times as many batters as he walks. Maybe it's time for him to go from "quietly good" to regular good. Bailey has been around forever, but he only just put together his first full season. It was really good though. Speaking of really good, Burnett was too, making him the Pirates' highest-ranked fantasy pitcher in...maybe ever. His K/9 was back where it belongs, and his K/BB was his highest since 2008. Lincecum was not good, but you can't write his whole career off. Even a partial return to form would mean big value here. Sanchez didn't adjust to the AL immediately, but a whole season pitching in front of the Detroit offense should agree with him. Estrada has become a trendy pick for good reason, but I have to remind myself that he doesn't exactly have much track record. Fister's strikeouts (or lack thereof) always made me wary of him, but he kept 'em up in Detroit. He'll have to with that infield. I'm not nearly as intrigued by Morrow's suddenly-great ERA as I am worried about his fallen strikeout rate. I had thought that Lynn was just a flash-in-the-pan, and his lousy August pretty much confirmed that...but then he was good again in September. I don't know exactly what he is, other than a guy who struck out more than a batter per inning last year.

You already know the end of this story, and you know how and when to draft pitchers in various types of leagues, so I'll finish off this series with a simple reminder: there are a lot of good pitchers out there. There aren't very many great ones. 

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2013 Position Rankings: Starting Pitchers 41-80

There are rules for drafting starters, or spending on them in an auction. They've accumulated over time, and they involve spending only so much, or only so many high picks on the position. Those are fine rules, and I'm not here to knock them over. Your leaguemates might, though, and if they do, you'll have to choose: go with the flow...or against it. I've had both strategies work out. And fail. It's for this reason that you should consider the recommended rounds to be much more fluid at this position than in others. Every draft will take its own course.

Pitchers are volatile commodities, and even the best ones can't be fully trusted. How many of us took Roy Halladay early last year and thought we couldn't be safer? New opportunities show up throughout the year, in the form of top prospects and out-of-nowhere surprises. Marco Estrada and Wade Miley probably helped a lot of us to championships. So, don't be afraid to wait a little on starters during the draft: the conventional wisdom is there for a reason. (Now, I know I must be getting old.)

Last week, we ranked the Relievers and finished all the hitters:  Shortstops, Third Basemen, Second Basemen, First Basemen, Catchers, and  Outfielders. Today's rankings come from a team discussion, featuring Tim Dierkes and the entire RotoAuthority staff. As always, they're divided into groups of similar value, and tiered by where they deserve to be drafted in a standard league. If you're bidding in an auction, consider players in the same tier to be of similar price.We start in the middle, with number 41, and continue to number 80. After that, you're drafting to fill various needs, so we highlight the strengths and potentials of unranked starters. 

What about the top 40 starters? You'll have to wait, but only two more days--the climax of our rankings series comes out on Wednesday. 

Rounds 11-12

41. Mike Minor, ATL
42. Andy Pettitte, NYY
43. Hiroki Kuroda, NYY
44. Dan Haren, WAS
45. Wade Miley, ARI
46. C.J. Wilson, LAA
47. Jon Lester, BOS
48. Ryan Vogelsong, SFG

It's mid-draft and you've probably got your top two starters, maybe your top three. The elite pitchers are gone and you're left to choose from a mix of good and steady ones, and ones with higher risk and reward. Minor fits in the second category, but given the way he improved over the course of last season, I'd say he's heavier on the "reward" side of things. Ditto for Pettitte, who just pitched his first spring outing and could be a high-quality pitcher with extra help in wins. Kuroda's strikeouts slipped a bit, but he's a low risk guy on what should still be a good Yankees team. Haren terrifies me, with spring velocity issues and heath concerns that led the Angels to practically throw him out of town. Miley would be a lot higher if he just struck anyone out. Wilson, Lester, and Vogelsong have all shown good and ugly sides in the last years. Expect a bit of both from them next year, but more of the good.

Rounds 13-14

49. Ryan Dempster, BOS
50. Phil Hughes, NYY
51. Edwin Jackson, CHC
52. Brett Anderson, OAK
53. Alexi Ogando, TEX
54. Matt Harvey, NYM
55. Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA
56. Tim Hudson, ATL
57. Tommy Milone, OAK

Dempster and Hughes might not be great for your rate stats, but they should be assets in K's and Wins. Jackson is as steady as they come, and he has an above-average strikeout rate. Anderson has tons of talent, but he's made of glass. Ogando is talented too, but he's still an unproven commodity as a starter. Harvey's K/9 rate alone makes him worth owning. Iwakuma, Hudson, and Milone are all relatively safe picks. Wins are a limitation for Iwakuma, strikeouts are for the other two.

Rounds 15-16

58. Jarrod Parker, OAK
59. Matt Harrison, TEX
60. Mike Fiers, MIL
61. Dillon Gee, NYM
62. Matt Garza, CHC
63. James McDonald, PIT
64. Jason Hammel, BAL
65. Wei-Yin Chen, BAL
66. Trevor Cahill, ARI

Parker and Harrison pitched to good seasons last year, and could be in line to improve, but I wouldn't expect another 18 wins from Harrison. Fiers and Gee both pitched very well in limited time last year, though Fiers flamed out in September. Both are high-risk, high-reward guys. Garza will be on the shelf until "possibly early May," but if you can wait, he's a fantasy asset when healthy. McDonald went all Jekyll and Hyde last year, with great and horrible parts to his season. On balance, he's still worth having. Hammel seems healthy so far; if durable he could be very high on this list. Chen and Cahill don't have huge upside, but they can capably round out a fantasy staff. 

Rounds 17-18

67. Joe Blanton, LAA
68. Shaun Marcum, NYM
69. Alex Cobb, TBR
70. Scott Baker, CHC
71. Trevor Bauer, CLE
72. A.J. Griffin, OAK
73. Josh Beckett, LAD
74. Chris Capuano, LAD
75. Derek Holland, TEX
76. Johan Santana, NYM

I know Blanton was awful last year, but his peripherals were just so good. I can't help taking a chance on a guy with a 4.88 K/BB. Marcum is a great pitcher when he's healthy, but the contract he got tells me that most teams in baseball didn't think he was worth taking a chance on. Of course, we aren't risking millions of dollars here. Maybe mock drafters don't know Baker isn't scheduled to be ready by Opening Day. He's a huge risk, but the upside could be 160 IP of nearly ace-level pitching. Like pretty much everyone else that pitches for Oakland, Griffin looked pretty good without very many strikeouts last year. Theoretically, Beckett could return to form in the NL. I'll believe it when I see it, probably on someone else's team. Capuano is easily one of the five best pitchers on the Dodgers, but he still might pitch in the bullpen. Sometimes life isn't fair. Holland took a bit of a backwards step last year, but he's still interesting. I had been excited about Santana, but the spring reports haven't been encouraging. His talent is still worth taking a chance on.

Rounds 19-20

77. Brandon McCarthy, ARI
78. Patrick Corbin, ARI
79. Bud Norris, HOU
80. Wandy Rodriguez, PIT

McCarthy was healthier than usual last year, but his strikeouts disappeared. If Corbin wins the fifth starter's job, he's got intriguing peripherals. Norris is a strikeout machine, but the Astros are just so bad. And his rate stats aren't great either. If the rumors of a trade to St. Louis come to fruition, though, bump him up ten or twenty spots as a wins and K's guy. "Magic" Wandy's strikeout numbers keep trending down, but he's still decent overall, and so are the Pirates. I suppose more pitchers can and should go in these rounds, but at some point the numbers lose their meaning, and all that matters is what kind of pitcher you need, and which kind of risks your team is ready to take. 

Deep League Options

Injury Returners: Cory Luebke, SDP (midseason), Colby Lewis, TEX (late May), Neftali Feliz, TEX (July), Brandon Beachy (June)

Wins: Bronson Arroyo, CIN, Mark Buehrle, TOR, Clay Buchholz, BOS, Ivan Nova, NYY, Paul Maholm, ATL

Strikeouts: Edinson Volquez, SDP, Felix Doubront, BOS, Chris Narveson, MIL

Prospects: Dylan Bundy, BAL, Shelby Miller, STL, Tyler Skaggs, ARI, Danny Hultzen, SEA, Julio Teheran, ATL, Gerrit Cole, PIT, Zack Wheeler, NYM, Dan Straily, OAK, Chris Archer, TBR

If I Only Had a Job: Kyle Lohse, FA, Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD, Aaron Harang, LAD, Ted Lilly, LAD, Carlos Villanueva, CHC, Mark Rogers, MIL

High Risk (Moderate-High Reward): Chad Billingsley, LAD, Tommy Hanson, LAA, Ervin Santana, KCR, Chris Tillman, BAL, John Lackey, BOS, Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE, Scott Kazmir, CLE, Erik Bedard, HOU, Jorge De La Rosa, COL, Wily Peralta, MIL, Jaime Garcia, STL

Low Risk (Low-Moderate Reward): Lucas Harrell, HOU, Gavin Floyd, CHW, Jeff Karstens, PIT, Jason Vargas, LAA, Bartolo Colon, OAK,  Miguel Gonzalez, BAL, John Danks, CHW, Jose Quintana, CHW, Zach McAllister, CLE, Brett Myers, CLE, Rick Porcello, DET, Jeremy Guthrie, KCR, Wade Davis, KCR, Vance Worley, MIN, Joe Saunders, SEA, Jeff Niemann, TBR, Jeremy Hellickson, TBR, Ricky Nolasco, MIA, John Lannan, PHI, Clayton Richard, SDP, Freddy Garcia, SDP, Jake Westbrook, STL, Barry Zito, SFG, Ross Detwiler, WAS

No, the above isn't quite an exhaustive list of Major League starters, but it is pretty close. If your league goes deep, you might just need several of these guys. If it's shallow you can stick to the top 80, and don't forget to tune in on Wednesday to find who our top starters are.

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2013 Position Rankings: Relief Pitchers

No position comes close to relievers when it comes to unpredictability. With their value tied so intrinsically to saves, and each pitcher throwing only a tiny sample of innings, it shouldn't really be a surprise to anyone when weird things happen: like Fernando Rodney being 2012's best reliever; like John Axford pitching badly enough to lose his job; like anything that happens when Carlos Marmol is on the mound. 

So how do you rank players that come with such an intense level of inherent variance? With caution. Waiting on closers and drafting multiple smei-competent back-enders has always been my plan at this position, and I see little reason to change. Great relievers fall suddenly, and nobodies rise to prominence just as quickly. The rounds into which the closers are tiered reflect my own closer-caution--unfortunately, some drafts won't let you play it so safe if you want to compete in saves, so consider the rounds looser guidelines than usual, even though the player groups stand just fine.

We're finished with the hitters; you can find Shortstops, Third Basemen, Second Basemen, First Basemen, Catchers, and  Outfielders at these links. Today's rankings come from a team discussion, featuring Tim Dierkes and the entire RotoAuthority staff and they cover all the closers, plus some of the most draftable setup guys. They're divided into groups of similar value, and tiered by where they deserve to be drafted in a standard league. If you're bidding in an auction, consider players in the same tier to be of similar price.

3rd Round

1. Craig Kimbrel, ATL

Kimbrel is so good that even I would consider taking him in the third, and I haven't taken a closer before the 10th in about five years. Those strikeouts pile on value; my only worry is that dominant relievers before him have fallen hard.

7th Round

2. Jonathan Papelbon, PHI

After Kimbrel, there is no one I would take over Papelbon, for the simple reason that he's been good for so long that his sample isn't all that small any more: we can safely conclude that he's a good pitcher. It doesn't hurt that the Phillies are paying him big stacks of cash and won't remove him from the job unless he turns into Heath Bell.

8th-9th Round

3. Mariano Rivera, NYY
4. Joe Nathan, TEX
5. Jason Motte, STL

Rivera's been so good for so long that only his injury keeps him this low on my list. It's not that I think he'll be the best closer out there, it's that I'm very confident that he'll be good--and keep his job. Nathan proved last year that his injuries are behind him; like Rivera, so is a long history of success. Motte is a lot lower on this list than most, but don't get me wrong: he has a higher fantasy ceiling than anyone above him (except Kimbrel), but his relative inexperience also tells me that he has a lower floor. Plus, his team isn't invested in him the way Nathan's, Rivera's, and Papelbon's are.

11th-12th Rounds

6. J.J. Putz, ARI
7. Rafael Soriano, WAS
8. John Axford, MIL
9. Fernando Rodney, TBR

Putz is rock solid--when healthy. Fortunately, David Hernandez is one likely backup, and he's worth rostering in a setup role. Unfortunately, Heath Bell is the other likely backup. Soriano should be great in saves and strikeouts, but his walks will keep his WHIP up and probably lead to the occasional blowup. Axford should rebound from a tough 2012 to be the high-K stopper we'd come to expect. Rodney's last season screams fluke...but what if it wasn't? I'm willing to take that chance, albeit not as early as mock drafters are.

13th-14th

10. Jason Grilli, PIT
11. Sergio Romo, SFG
12. Greg Holland, KCR
13. Tom Wilhelmsen, SEA
14. Rafael Betancourt, COL
15. Glen Perkins, MIN 

Grilli seems like he came out of nowhere, but he's put up two excellent seasons in a row, and has four straight years of increasing strikeout rates--a number that increased to 13.81 K/9 last year. Romo has serious questions about the health of his elbow, and the best-case scenario for him seems to be that other members of his bullpen vulture more saves than average. Holland and Williamsen rake in the strikeouts but play for mediocre teams. Also, their closing tenure has been short, so their leashes will be too. Betancourt would be a tier higher if he didn't play in Colorado. Perkins was excellent last year, but how many leads will the Twins' rotation be able to deliver?

15th-16th

16. Huston Street, SDP
17. Addison Reed, CHW
18. Jonathan Broxton, CIN
19. Jim Johnson, BAL
20. Grant Balfour, OAK
21. Chris Perez, CLE
22. Steve Cishek, MIA 

Street is a very good pitcher--when healthy, which isn't much of the time. Draft him expecting a DL stint. Reed flew under the radar a little, but was quite successful. Broxton didn't impress--especially with the strikeouts, but the Reds should hand him plenty of leads. Johnson was dynamite last year...but he doesn't get many strikeouts and this Orioles fan expects a bit of team regression. Balfour's overall numbers are pretty good, but he bounced in and out of the closer role. Oakland is an organization that isn't afraid to make changes or defy convention, which is great for them, but less than ideal for a fantasy closer. Perez was surprisingly competent last year, but his shaky history keeps our enthusiasm low. Cishek pitched well, but it probably wouldn't take much for the mercurial Marlins to make a change. Also, they might not be too good next year.

17th-18th

23. Joel Hanrahan, BOS
24. Bobby Parnell, NYM

Hanrahan's underlying numbers were pretty shaky last year, and I don't think Boston will hesitate to make a change if one is needed. They proved with Andrew Bailey that trading for someone doesn't mean he'll get a long leash. Parnell is looking more and more like the Mets' closer in camp. If he starts the season with the job, he'll have to really blow up to lose it to Frank Francisco.

19th-20th

25. Brandon League, LAD
26. Ernesto Frieri, LAA
27. Kenley Jansen, LAD
28. Jose Veras, HOU
29. Sergio Santos, TOR

League and Frieri are both slated to start the season closing for their Los Angeles teams. Both teams are expected to switch closers at some point in the year. For the Angels, that's the plan: switch to Ryan Madson. For the Dodgers, it's what you expect when Jansen is that much better than League. As far as what will really happen...I couldn't say at all. I can say, however, that I prefer to take the guy with the job in hand, because sometimes they don't let it go. Speaking of jobs in hand, that's what Veras has in Houston, and what Santos appears to be grabbing--to start the season--in Toronto.

Should any of these messy closer situations get fully straightened out by Opening Day, Frieri and Jansen would belong in the 13-14th tier, Santos and League in the 15th-16th tier.

21st-22nd

30. Casey Janssen, TOR
31. Ryan Madson, LAA
32. Carlos Marmol, CHC
33. Kyuji Fujikawa, CHC

Janssen and Madson haven't healed as expected and could be seeing their jobs slip away. Should they manage to gain a certain hold on their jobs before Opening Day, both would be worth taking among the 15th-16th tier.

Marmol will have the job as long as he's a Cub--how else to keep his trade value up? The bad news for anyone who drafts him is that the Cubbies might have him traded by Opening Day. If that happens, bump Fujikawa way up this list, as he won't have much competition for saves. I would take him around the 15th or 16th round.

23rd and Beyond

34. Joaquin Benoit, DET
35. Al Alburquerque, DET
36. Bruce Rondon, DET
37. Frank Francisco, NYM 

I don't know what will happen in Detroit's bullpen, but all three of these guys have a chance to close, and a chance to keep the job if they get it. Maybe Francisco will keep his job.

Quality Non-Closers 

38. Vinnie Pestano, CLE
39. David Hernandez, ARI
40. David Robertson, NYY
41. Luke Gregerson, SDP
42. Sean Marshall, CIN
43. Santiago Casilla, SFG
44. Ryan Cook, OAK
45. Andrew Bailey, BOS
46. Drew Storen, WAS
47. Johnny Venters, ATL
48. Mike Adams, PHI
49. Antonio Bastardo, PHI
50. Tyler Clippard, WAS
51. Jacob McGee, TBR
52. Trevor Rosenthal, STL
53. Koji Uehara, BOS 

Some of these guys have a decent shot to close, thanks to a shaky or injury-prone incumbent (Pestano, Hernandez, Robertson, Gregerson, Cook, Bailey, Uehara), while others might vulture some saves along the way (Casilla, Marshall). Some are just worth rostering on their skills alone (Bastardo, Storen). All of these guys are probably best left for deeper leagues.

This year's closer picture is murkier than it has usually been in the recent past. More teams have unresolved questions surrounding the back end of their bullpens: the Angels, Dodgers, Tigers, Mets, Blue Jays, and Cubs are all without a certain closer. Expect to get quite a few saves off the waiver wire, and in the meantime, draft a few backup closers. Your relievers don't have to be the best to get the most saves.

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2013 Position Rankings: Catchers

Welcome back to RotoAuthority's Position Rankings. Last week, we ranked Outfielders, and today we continue on with Catchers. Slightly less numerous in real and fantasy baseball, our catcher list goes up only to 30...but do you really want the catchers after that? Probably not, and if you do, they'll be waiting on the waiver wire. The players are divided into groups of similar value, and tiered by where they deserve to be drafted in a standard league. If you're bidding in an auction, consider players in the same tier to be of similar price. Positions in parentheses mark other eligibilities the player has. As before, these rankings were crafted after a team discussion, featuring Tim Dierkes and the entire RotoAuthority staff.

2nd Round

1. Buster Posey, SFG (1B)

I'm not normally an advocate of taking a catcher in the second round...but I'd probably make an exception for Posey. He's the top catcher by a mile.

4th Round

2. Carlos Santana, CLE (1B)
3. Yadier Molina, STL
4. Joe Mauer, MIN (1B)

I agonized for a while over who to install second on this list, Santana or Molina. Finally, I was won over by the possibility of Santana building on his power and the likelihood of Molina's homer total returning to its 2011 level. Mauer is more easily behind the other two, because his low power reins in his upside and his history of injuries makes his downside extra-steep.

5th-6th Rounds

5. Wilin Rosario, COL
6. Matt Wieters, BAL
7. Mike Napoli, BOS (1B)

Rosario came out of nowhere (or almost nowhere) to lead catchers in home runs. There seems to be a pretty good chance he does it again, playing in Colorado. Playing first for Boston, Napoli could put up some big numbers. Unfortunately, his health status limits his draft position almost as much as it did his real-life contract. If his own team isn't sure about him, neither am I.

9th-10th Rounds

8. Salvador Perez, KCR
9. Miguel Montero, ARI
10. Jonathan Lucroy, MIL
11. Victor Martinez, DET

Perez has put up two awesome partial seasons, and you can count me among those who think he can put them together. This Montero seems to be the rare case of a player getting overrated who does lots of things pretty well but excels in none. I don't think he's in line for a bad season or anything, but I wish he had more power. Martinez is a big question mark, having missed all of last season, but the extra plate appearances he could get as a full-time DH make him a worthy risk.

11th-12th Rounds

12. Brian McCann, ATL
13. Jesus Montero, SEA

A disastrous BABIP killed McCann's batting average last year, but I'd still be willing to draft him closer to his old position if he were expected to be healthy to start the season. Instead, expect to shelf McCann for a little while, though his exact timetable is in flux. He should still be great value, though--by the end of the year you'll have forgotten the weeks you spent with a placeholder catcher. This Montero should benefit from the moving fences in Safeco, though by how much remains to be seen. He could still make the jump to elite-hitting catcher, but the chances go down each year.

13th-14th Rounds

14. Ryan Doumit, MIN (OF)
15. A.J. Pierzynski, TEX

Doumit has some sock, and should get extra at bats playing in the outfield. His ranking makes him among the first second catchers, but don't be unhappy if he's your starter. Pierzynski shocked us all last year. We aren't exactly expecting a repeat, but if even a little of that power sticks with him in Texas, he will be huge value at this point.

17th-18th Rounds

16. J.P. Arencibia, TOR
17. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, BOS

These guys are the same. Lots of power, awful batting averages. Last names that make me question everything I know about spelling. There's a pretty big gap between these two and Pierzynski, because their downside is so low, and even at their best that batting average really drags you down. But they do hit home runs....

20th-22nd Rounds

18. Tyler Flowers, CHW
19. Rob Brantly, MIA
20. Wilson Ramos, WAS
21. Chris Iannetta, LAA

There's another big jump, as we get to the last few catchers started in two-catcher leagues. Flowers is interesting, but his upside appears to be joining Arencibia and Saltalamacchia. Accordingly, make sure they're off the board before you nab Flowers. Brantley could contribute in average, while Ramos and Ianetta might add a few bombs.

23rd and Beyond

22. A.J. Ellis, LAD
23. Welington Castillo, CHC
24. Russell Martin, PIT
25. Alex Avila, DET
26. John Jaso, OAK
27. Travis d'Arnaud, NYM
28. Carlos Ruiz, PHI
29. Yasmani Grandal, SDP
30. John Buck, NYM 

Well, it gets pretty rough back here. Fortunately, only three teams are selecting a starter from this bunch (and one of those is just an injury-replacement for McCann). Ellis and Jaso should get a bump if your league counts OBP. If it doesn't, at least they might score some runs. D'Arnaud is pretty much a prospect stash, while Ruiz and Grandal should only be stashed if you have a ton of bench spots or your league lets you keep suspended players on something like the DL.

Catchers are surprisingly deep this year. Most years, the names start getting ugly really fast, and you're getting a scrub if you don't have a top-six backstop. This time around, though, you can get some quality catchers quite late. In a two-catcher league, my favorite pre-season strategy for this position is to get both of my starting catchers between the ninth and fourteenth rounds, landing me two of the players ranked between eighth and fifteenth on this list. I won't have paid a premium price for my first catcher, and I won't be stuck with bad production with my second. In a single-catcher league, I'll probably try to be among the last to draft a catcher, because the thirteenth, fourteenth, and fifteenth catchers are all pretty good. Unless, of course, Buster Posey falls to the third round....

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2013 Position Rankings: Outfielders

That's right, it's finally here: RotoAuthority's 2013 Position Rankings! Yeah, we're excited. So excited that we're kicking it off with the outfield, just to be that awesome. After a team discussion, featuring Tim Dierkes and the entire RotoAuthority staff, we've prepared tiered rankings that go 60 players deep. The players are divided into groups of similar value, and tiered by where they deserve to be drafted in a standard league. If you're bidding in an auction, consider players in the same tier to be of similar price. If a player has other positions in parentheses, that means you can draft and start him there. That's enough discussion--I mean, you probably skipped this paragraph and went right for the rankings anyway.

Early 1st Round

1. Mike Trout, LAA
2. Ryan Braun, MIL

These guys should be pretty obvious. What might be less obvious is how far they are from anyone else.

Mid-Late 1st Round

3. Andrew McCutchen, PIT
4. Giancarlo Stanton, MIA

I know Stanton's a bit against the grain here, but he's got so much power I don't care. In a better lineup, he'd be up with Trout and Braun.

2nd Round

5. Jose Bautista, TOR
6. Carlos Gonzalez, COL
7. Matt Kemp, LAD
8. Jason Heyward, ATL
9. Bryce Harper, WAS
10. Adam Jones, BAL
11. Justin Upton, ATL

Bautista's great...but in only three categories, while CarGo's perpetual small injuries really hurt his overall stats. Kemp lost speed last year and I'm not 100% confident that he'll get it back right away; combined with October shoulder surgery, that keeps him out of my first round. Heyward and Harper could take huge steps forward. So could Upton, but he's proved capable of taking big steps back too. No matter who you take, a lot of OF's are going in this round.

3rd Round

12. Matt Holliday, STL
13. Curtis Granderson, NYY
14. Josh Hamilton, LAA
15. B.J. Upton, ATL
16. Jay Bruce, CIN
16.5 Adrian Gonzalez, LAD (1B--18 games in OF)

Holliday is pretty underrated--sometimes consistency can keep your price down, I guess. If Granderson's lousy batting average was a BABIP lull, this will be a bargain. If it was a portent of decline, this could be way too high. I think his power is worth the risk. Hamilton is set for a decline, but his 2013 forecast looks better than his keeper future.

4th-5th Rounds

17. Yoenis Cespedes, OAK
18. Mark Trumbo, LAA
19. Shin-Soo Choo, CIN
20. Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
21. Allen Craig, STL (1B)

Cespedes did a bit of everything last year, and it wouldn't surprise anyone if he improved on that performance. Especially with a little more health. Trumbo could rack up some huge RBI totals hitting in the lower half of the Angels' lineup, while Choo should score a ton or runs leading off for Cinncinnati. Ellsbury's 2011 power surge seems like forever ago, but the real risk for him is health. Healthy, and he's an elite OF even without the power. Craig carries health risks too, and it took until his late 20's for him to break out. I'm not screaming "fluke," but I do think there's plenty of downside to go with the potential.

6th-7th Rounds

22. Carlos Beltran, STL
23. Alex Gordon, KCR
24. Nick Swisher, CLE (1B)
25. Austin Jackson, DET
26. Josh Willingham, MIN
27. Ben Zobrist, TBR (2B/SS)
28. Michael Bourn, CLE

Beltran is totally underrated, but he isn't healthy or young, so I can understand some caution. What he is, though, is very, very good, so draft him anyway. If Gordon puts a few more of those 50 doubles over the wall, this could be well under his value. If it doesn't you'll wish you waited a couple rounds on him. Swisher is Matt Holliday lite--he does the same thing every year, therefore impressing no one and keeping his price down. Jackson's always-high BABIP keeps him useful; his wheels and his place atop the Tigers lineup make him very valuable. 

8th-9th Rounds

29. Desmond Jennings, TBR
30. Chris Davis, BAL (1B)
31. Alex Rios, CHW
32. Melky Cabrera, TOR 

Jennings is a good bet for steals and a decent bet for some improvement. Rios's up-and-down history keeps me scared away--which means he could be a great value for anyone braver than I am. What will a post-juice Cabrera do? Probably rack up runs and RBI's playing for Toronto.

10th-11th Rounds

33. Hunter Pence, SFG
34. Nelson Cruz, TEX
35. Angel Pagan, SFG
36. Shane Victorino, BOS
37. Alfonso Soriano, CHC
38. Norichika Aoki, MIL
39. Torii Hunter, DET

 A lot of people think Pence is on the way down, and AT&T park isn't helping. There's upside in going against the grain, but don't reach. Cruz didn't switch ballparks, but he has that PED clinic thing hanging over his head. Don't look now, but Soriano had a very productive year at the plate. Maybe it's time to stop punishing him for taking all those big checks from the Cubbies. I'm not overly optimistic about Hunter, but I think he'll see plenty of RBI opportunities.

12th-13th Rounds

40. Josh Reddick, OAK
41. Martin Prado, ARI (3B)
42. Andre Ethier, LAD
43. Nick Markakis, BAL
44. Ryan Ludwick, CIN
45. Coco Crisp, OAK
46. Ben Revere, PHI
47. Alejandro De Aza, CHW

Ludwick has a lot of power, and, if healthy, he could be one of the outfield's best bargains. Crisp and Revere make great late round speed grabs. A little good luck, and they could give you nearly all the value of higher-priced speedsters at a fraction of the cost.

14th-16th Rounds

48. Mike Morse, SEA
49. Carlos Gomez, MIL
50. Ichiro Suzuki, NYY
51. Jayson Werth, WAS
52. Adam Eaton, ARI
53. Carlos Quentin, SDP
54. Wil Myers, TBR
55. Carl Crawford, LAD
56. Cameron Maybin, SDP
57. Starling Marte, PIT

You know who I never thought would impress me? Carlos Gomez. But check it out, speed and power. Ichiro isn't who he used to be, but don't be shocked if he helps out in runs and steals without hurting in average. Werth's power disappeared last year, so this is purely an upside play. Eaton and Myers have impact-level talent--the only question is when they come up to the Show. Should Myers win the job out of camp, move him up this list. When will Crawford get back? What will he be like when does? I don't know, so I'm not going to count on him for anything.

17th-18th Rounds 

58. Jason Kubel, ARI
59. Dexter Fowler, COL
60. Michael Cuddyer, COL
61. Denard Span, WAS

Yeah, you get a free bonus player--I just couldn't kick Span off the list. Kubel and Cuddyer could do a lot for your power, but they have a lot of health questions. Fowler does everything--except rack up big totals in homers or steals.

Bench OF's to Target (19th Round and Beyond):

Depending on how deep your league goes, you might need to reach a little further into the pool. Instead of taking whichever random guy is next on your draft website's list, grab a bench player to suit your real needs.

Power: Dayan Viciedo, Garrett Jones, Ryan Doumit (C), Jeff Francoeur,  Chris Young, Matthew Joyce

Speed: Brett Gardner, Juan Pierre, Darin Mastroianni, Peter Bourjos, Drew Stubbs

Youth/Upside: Justin Ruggiano, Brandon Moss (1B), Lorenzo Cain,  Oscar Taveras, Leonys Martin

Balance: Michael Saunders, Corey Hart (1B), Cody Ross, Logan Morrison, Colby Rasmus, David Murphy

As always, the outfield is deep. Your best strategy will depend on how many  OF's your league requires you to start each day. If you start five, then you should start grabbing them early. If you only play three, you can afford to get premium players at other positions and fill in your outfield a little later. In either case, I always like to get some extra steals towards the end of the draft and the outfield is a great place to find them.

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Fantasy Stars: Top of the First (Round)

Each week in Fantasy Stars we'll be looking at a different segment of the fantasy baseball population. Instead of giving you our analysis of who you should draft with the week's range of picks--don't worry, we'll be talking about that all over the place--we'll look at who is being drafted there. Know your competition, I say, and the competition is all those people so excited for fantasy baseball that they've already drafted at MockDraftCentral.com.

I was a little surprised to see that a pretty robust 61 mock drafts have already happened since the calendar turned to 2013, so the sample size isn't as small as I had worried about. It's still small, though, and where players are being drafted at the end of Spring Training will have shifted plenty. That's why we're starting at the top, even at the risk of talking way too much about Mike Trout.

Top Players 1-6 by ADP

Miguel Cabrera 3B             ADP 1.36
Ryan Braun OF                  ADP 2.90
Mike Trout OF                       ADP 3.87
Carlos Gonzalez OF        ADP 4.69
Robinson Cano 2B           ADP 5.11
Matt Kemp OF                   ADP 5.92 

It's pretty clear that these players are the first six picks in the majority of drafts, as the seventh player on the list is Albert Pujols, with an 8.08 ADP. We'll have to wait till next time to look at his tier, though, as he isn't a risk to unseat any of these players...yet.

For me, two things spring right to mind when looking at these players: first, two of them spent a significant portion of 2012 on the DL (Kemp and Gonzalez), and only two play in the infield. As a bonus, somehow none of them are 1B-eligible, something that hasn't happened in recent memory, though you can thank the fact that the Tigers don't care about defense any more than your fantasy team does for Cabrera's presence at 3B.

It looks like the mock drafters are making two main choices when they draft, and you'll be doing the same on draft day if you get one of the top six picks: play it safe or take a risk, get an elite OF or take the best player  by far at a scarce position.

Safe choices:                        Risks:
Miguel Cabrera                   Mike Trout
Ryan Braun                         Carlos Gonzalez 
Robinson Cano                  Matt Kemp

Whether or not the risks are truly risky is tough to be sure of (for instance, I don't think the negative risk of taking Trout is all that high...but that's another article), since last year people were worried about Ryan Braun's potential suspension and nobody was worried that Matt Kemp would get hurt and miss a third of the season. Every pick is a risk, but we never know by exactly how much.

Still, three of fantasy baseball's safest names are definitely Cabrera, Braun, and Cano. At the very least, they are the most traditional choices. But are they the right ones? Are the risks smart ones to make? Let's look at each player individually. (Stats presented: BA/HR/R/RBI/SB)

Miguel Cabrera .330/44/109/139/4

So, Miggy's clearly a four-category beast and a near-zero in steals. We already knew that and the lack of steals is really the only mark against taking him first. I might argue elsewhere that (spoiler alert) Trout is a better pick, but if you're confident in getting steals later on, maybe Cabrera is for you. If you do get him, I suggest tempering your homer expectations, as last year's 44 were a career best by seven.

As great as his power is maybe the best thing about Cabrera is the batting average: he's been incredibly consistent in what's usually a very unpredictable category, with .320 averages or better in seven of his nine full seasons in the Majors. His career BABIP is .331, so that seems to clearly count as a skill. Indeed, his worst averages have still been in the .290's. 

All this would make Cabrera an easy top pick even if he played OF or 1B, but the pool isn't so deep at 3B. (Though it's not as shallow as it could be, with David Wright, Adrian Beltre, and Evan Longoria in the next three spots on the list.) 

Ryan Braun .319/41/108/112/30

Braun is a fantasy machine, with MVP numbers in four categories and All-Star numbers in steals. His average, while not in Cabrera's territory, sits at .313 for his career, so he's much more likely than not to provide a good return again there. The runs and RBI's shouldn't be going anywhere either, though a dip in homers is likely: again like Cabrera, he set a career high and he's usually closer to 30 bombs than 40. Fortunately, that's still good enough to make him one of fantasy and real baseball's best players.

The steals are more interesting, as the 29-year-old seems to have added them to his repertoire just for fun two years ago. After hanging around the 15 mark for most of his career, he jumped up to 33 in 2011 and stayed near that last year. Since he isn't being counted on to steal bases for his team, they could theoretically dry up at any time. The good news is that he's adding runs to the Brewers with an 83% success rate for the past two years, so they don't have any reason to tell him to slow down. My only caution is that things that come quickly seem to go quickly too.

Mike Trout .326/30/129/83/49

If Braun's steals came quickly, Trout's home run power came like lightning. Plenty of people are going to be wondering two things: was Trout's rookie season too good to be true, and is his power for real?

To the first question: he's too good not to be true. Plenty of rookies take the Majors by storm their first year and peter out into nothingness sometime thereafter. None of those rookies were position players as good as Trout. He could regress in a meaningful way and still be one of the top five players in baseball. If he stays exactly the same, he'll still be the best in fantasy, thanks to his power/speed combo.

What about that power? Well, think about it this way: ESPN's Hit Tracker counted just eight of Trouts homers as "just enoughs." If you want, take all those homers away, but give him another three weeks of playing time. Now instead of a 30HR/49 SB player, you're looking at about a 25/60 player. That's probably worth the risk.

Carlos Gonzalez .303/22/89/85/20

Maybe it's just that I can't get the 1990's out of my head, but I'm not too impressed by CarGo. He's good, don't get me wrong. I mean, he's great. But top of the first round? I'm not buying it, for a couple of reasons. The biggest reason is his health. Clearly, he's a great ballplayer and a power/speed cornerstone for a fantasy team. But what about all those days when he's sitting on the DL, or when he's playing at less than full strength? In his three years as a superstar, Gonzalez has yet to play more than 145 games. Last year he made it into 135, in 2011 it was 127. Whatever the reason, Gonzalez misses time, and you have to temper his stats with whoever you get to replace him off the waiver wire, even it's only for a couple weeks. What's more, someone who frequently misses a little time, might be expected to miss larger periods of time.

Health alone isn't the only issue: he's just significantly less good than some of the players around him: he's broken the 30-HR barrier just once and he holds a .298 career average. He's not an elite stealer either, with a career high of 26. He's not bad at all; he's even great. But he doesn't belong at the top of the draft either. I'm guessing other people will notice and we'll see him settling in nearer to the end of the first round or the beginning of the second. If he doesn't, you won't see him on any of my teams.

Robinson Cano .313/33/105/94/3

Cano seems to me to be moving his way up fantasy depth charts by default, as more and more players around him see their games slip. Maybe that's so, or maybe not, either way Cano is a clear cut above anyone else at his position, with Ian Kinsler his only real competition. As one of my "safe" choices, Cano has proved consistency, and that's what lands him in the top of the first, and why he should be drafted far ahead of anyone else at 2B. Ahead of plenty of OF's too.

Like Cabrera, he's a four-category stud who does nothing in steals. Oh well. Since 2009 he's hit at least 25 homers, batted at least .302, and scored at least 100 runs, each year. In the Yankee lineup (even if it isn't quite what it used to be), and in Yankee Stadium, there's plenty of reason to think the runs and RBI's will keep coming. Unlike Trout (and perhaps Gonzalez) he doesn't carry much upside, but he doesn't need to. Even at 30 years old, he's still in his prime and should be treated like an elite 1B. At 2B.

Matt Kemp .303/23/74/69/9

Kemp is another player that I'd rather leave to someone else. Taking a little risk for a lot of reward in the first few picks of a fantasy draft is one thing. Drafting a player who missed a full third of last season, and whose injuries may remain (he had surgery in October that should be fully healed by Opening Day) is not good risk/reward strategy. The reward (a season like his 2011) is immense, but the risk (more of 2012, including the decrease in stolen bases) is too great. Like Gonzalez, the upside here is truly impressive, worth taking. But not worth taking in the first few picks, when the opportunity cost is so high.

At his best, Kemp is one of fantasy baseball's power/speed heroes, but how sure can we be that we'll be getting Kemp's best in 2013? Thanks to what happened last year, less sure than we can for most players. I believe in taking bold risks throughout a fantasy draft, but some risks are better to leave in the hands of your opponents. 

A caveat to all this pessimism is that we still get to watch Spring Training. How will Kemp perform in Florida? If he's all running on all cylinders in the Spring, then maybe this worry is for nothing and you'll be taking advantage of owners who want to play it safe by nabbing him. Great! But if he isn't stealing, taking extra bases, or generally looking fast and athletic, I'd place my money elsewhere.

For the top six picks, I really like four of them. I'd reorder them all like this: Trout, Cabrera, Braun, Cano...Gonzalez and Kemp somewhat farther behind, but probably still in the first round.

Editor's Note: ADP may have changed somewhat since this article's first draft. Not to worry, the analysis still applies and any players who might have skipped ahead won't be missed next time around....

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2012 Position Rankings: Relievers

Time for our final set of rankings, the guys pitching the end of the game appropriately enough. Saves are what it's all about for relievers in 5x5 leagues, but they aren't the only stat that counts.

1. John Axford, MIL - Strikeouts (10.5 K/9) and ground balls (49.7%) are the name of Axford's game, and his teammates should ensure him plenty of save chances. Every reliever is risky, but I feel there's less risk here than usual despite his unusual background.
   
2. Mariano Rivera, NYY - Even at 42 years old, Rivera is a marvel. He's dominant in ERA and WHIP, and will pile up saves like few others. The Yankees have scaled back his workload in recent years, so don't expect to see him make too many back-to-back appearances. No one has more job security.
3. Jonathan Papelbon, PHI - Papelbon has never really been at risk of losing his job in Boston, but his new contract guarantees him the ninth inning with the Phillies. Elite production in all categories except wins.
4. Craig Kimbrel, ATL - Kimbrel's absurd strikeout rate (14.8 K/9) does not come without risk. He was second among all relievers in appearances (79) and ninth in innings (77) last season and seemed to tire down the stretch. Throwing over 30% sliders is usually cause for concern as well.
5. Drew Storen, WAS - The Nationals' new rotation should mean more save chances for Storen, who was already sixth in the league last year (43). Doesn't get enough love as a top tier closer.
6. Ryan Madson, CIN - A minor elbow injury has slowed Madson in camp, but otherwise the ninth inning job is undoubtedly his for the first time in his career.
7. Joakim Soria, KC - A hamstring injury and some cutter issues gave Soria problems early last season, but he finished strong and figures to be his usual self in 2012.
8. Rafael Betancourt, COL - The Huston Street trade opened up the ninth inning for Betancourt, who filled in briefly last season. His high strikeout, low WHIP ways just got a ton more valuable.
9. Brian Wilson, SF - Wilson had oblique and elbow issues last season that delayed his start this year, but he'll have to show that the drastic declines in his strikeout and walk rates were a fluke if he wants to regain top closer status.
10. Joel Hanrahan, PIT - Hanrahan is finally get the hang of throwing strikes, though he traded some strikeouts for ground balls last season. He could be midseason trade bait given the Mike Adams, Andrew Bailey, and Mark Melancon hauls.
11. Heath Bell, MIA - The big drop-off in strikeouts in a concern (11.1 K/9 in 2010 to 7.3 K/9 in 2011), but Bell will still have a shot at 40+ saves even if the secondary numbers are less than impressive.
12. Jose Valverde, DET - The 49-for-49 in save chances thing helped mask what is now a five-year trend of declining strikeout rates. You'll get lots of saves, but at some point the underlying performance will result in a 4.00+ ERA.
13. Jason Motte, STL - Motte stepped up as closer at the perfect time for the Cardinals, and now he'll have the job right from the get-go. He's gotten his homer problem under control in recent years, and the strikeouts have always been there.
14. J.J. Putz, ARI - Putz had a big return to the ninth inning last year, but as always the question remains health. He's good for a DL stint or two per season, plus some other day-to-day stuff.
15. Sergio Santos, TOR - Santos took the closer job and ran with it last season, and now takes his high strikeout ways to Toronto. If he can cut down on the walks, he'll rocket up the rankings.
16. Carlos Marmol, CHC - The strikeout rate dropped (to a still excellent 12.0 K/9) but the walk rate didn't in 2011, and he lost his job at times last season. Sean Marshall is no longer a threat, but it doesn't make him any less risky.
17. Andrew Bailey, BOS - Injuries have limited Bailey to just 89 appearances over the last two seasons, which is the big concern. The Red Sox should give him more save chances than the A's did.
18. Jordan Walden, LAA - Lots of strikeouts, a low ERA, and lots of blown saves (ten). That's what Walden gave the Angels last year, and I do wonder how long his leash will be given the increased expectations in Anaheim.
19. Brandon League, SEA - The low strikeout rate hurts, but League is in the final year of his contract and is prime midseason trade bait. He could windup a setup man come July.
20. Kyle Farnsworth, TB - Farnsworth has traded strikeouts for ground balls in recent years, which hurts his overall value. His elbow problem late in 2011 at age 35 is a concern.
21. Tyler Clippard, WAS - The game's most fantasy dominant setup man, Clippard is workhorse who will provide elite strikeout, ERA, and WHIP production.
22. Huston Street, SD - Moving from Coors Field to Petco Park will help his extreme homer problem, but not the injuries. There's still a ton of risk here.
23. Joe Nathan, TEX - Nathan finished well after a slow start, but as a 37-year-old fly ball pitcher moving to a hitter's park (with a major injury in the recent past), he's a grenade with the pin pulled.
24. Jonny Venters, ATL - Overworked like Kimbrel, Venters will grab some save chances throughout the season since the Braves seem destined to play a lot of close games.
25. Matt Thornton, CHW - A terrible April was followed by five pretty good months, and Santos' departure means Thornton is the man at the end of the game on Chicago's south side. For now.
26. Jim Johnson, BAL - He won't miss many bats, but Johnson took the closer's job from Kevin Gregg last year and will run away with it thanks to his turbo-sinker.
27. Brett Myers, HOU - The newly minted closer in Houston, hopefully the move back to the bullpen boosts Myers' strikeout rate and allows him to avoid the long ball. SP eligibility will provide some extra flexibility.
28. Frank Francisco, NYM - Prone to the occasional meltdown, Francisco is good for strong strikeout numbers and a DL stint (at least one in each of the last three seasons).
29. Javy Guerra, LAD - Guerra stepped in nicely last season, seemingly getting his career-long walk issues under control. He'll be the closer from day one.
30. Chris Perez, CLE - Perez flirted with a 1.0 K/BB ratio for much of 2011, but he finished well. An oblique problem could delay the start to his season.
31. Vinnie Pestano, CLE - Few setup men were better than Pestano last season, who's going to get the call in the ninth if Perez starts the season on the shelf.
32. Mike Adams, TEX - The setup man extraordinaire is first in line for saves if Nathan slips up or gets hurt.
33. Kenley Jansen, LAD - No one struck out a greater percentage of batters faced last season (min. 40 IP), and Jansen is right there waiting for Guerra to slip up.
34. Brian Fuentes, OAK - The Athletics have yet to decide on a closer, but Fuentes held the job while Bailey was hurt last season. It could give him a leg up.
35. Grant Balfour, OAK - If not Fuentes, then Balfour is likely to be The Guy in Oakland. He offers better strikeout and WHIP numbers as well.
36. Sean Marshall, CIN - Arguably the best left-hander reliever in the game, Madson means it'll be tougher for Marshall to steal saves than it was with Marmol in Chicago. Good thing he's valuable in other categories.
37. Joaquin Benoit, DET - A rough start to his Tigers career was long forgotten by the time the playoffs rolled around. Benoit showed that 2010 was no fluke.
38. Matt Capps, MIN - If you don't like strikeouts, low ERAs, and low WHIPs, here's your fantasy closer. Without saves, Capps is unrosterable.
39. Glen Perkins, MIN - Perkins was off-the-charts good in 2011, and Capps' perpetual shakiness means he could see his fair share of save chances in 2012.
40. Sergio Romo, SF - Romo was so good last season (70 K and 5 BB) that Bruce Bochy made sure he didn't break him by only using him for 48 IP. We need more than that, Boch.
41. David Hernandez, ARI - When Putz makes his annual DL trip, Hernandez is the guy that will fill in. The walks are a little high, but the strikeouts make up for it.
42. Francisco Rodriguez, MIL - It's easy to take K-Rod for granted - 9+ K/9 in each of last nine years plus a sub-3.00 ERA in seven of last eight years - but Axford is standing in the way of saves. Too bad.
43. Scott Downs, LAA - If Walden slips up at all, the save chances will likely go to Downs. The strikeout rate isn't great, but it's tough to ignore everything else.
44. David Robertson, NYY - Roberton broke out in a big way last season, but his walk rate is scary high and could result in a 5.00+ ERA with some bad luck.
45. Greg Holland, KC - Holland was very quietly one of the best relievers in baseball last season, but he's only third in line for saves for the Royals right now.
46. Kerry Wood, CHC - With Marshall out of the fold, Wood is next in line for ninth inning work whenever Marmol has one of those glorious meltdowns.
47. Mark Melancon, BOS - From closing for the Astros to setting up for the Red Sox. Bailey's sketchy medical record means a few save chances should come his way.
48. Addison Reed, CHW - A hard-throwing reliever prospect, Reed struck out a dozen and walked one in his six game cameo last season. He's right behind Thornton on the depth chart.
49. Francisco Cordero, TOR - The self-proclaimed closer of the eighth inning, Cordero gives the Jays a veteran fallback option of Santos slips up at any point.
50. Rafael Soriano, NYY - Rivera never slips up, but if an injury were to sideline him for an extended period of time, the Proven Closer could get the nod over Robertson. Soriano isn't exactly Mr. Durable himself, remember.

Honorable Mention: Jonathan Broxton, KC; Aroldis Chapman, CIN; Andrew Cashner & Luke Gregerson, SD; Joel Peralta, TB; Fernando Salas, STL; Jon Rauch, NYM; Jesse Crain, CHW; Brad Lidge, WAS; Kevin Gregg, BAL; Brandon Lyon & David Carpenter; HOU; Hong-Chih Kuo, SEA

Pitchers with both SP and RP eligibility

1. Cory Luebke, SD
2. Brett Myers, HOU
3. Neftali Feliz, TEX
4. Daniel Bard, BOS
5. Chris Sale, CHW
6. Alexi Ogando, TEX
7. Josh Collmenter, ARI

Other Positions: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Shortstop, Third Base, Outfield, Starting Pitchers

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2012 Position Rankings: Starting Pitchers

With the position players all wrapped up, it's time to move to the mound. The steady decline in offense around the league means there are more quality starters now than anytime in the last few years. The rankings are based on standard 12-team mixed leagues with 5x5 scoring, but obviously saves are a non-issue here.

1. Roy Halladay, PHI - The Master. Doc does it all in both reality and fantasy, providing strikeouts, wins, and innings while keeping his ERA and WHIP at near microscopic levels.
2. Justin Verlander, DET - Will he win 24 games again? Almost certainly not. Verlander will flirt with 20 though, and his fly ball ways will keep the Miguel Cabrera-at-third base damage to a minimum.
3. Clayton Kershaw, LAD - Still just 23, the sky is the limit for last year's NL pitching Triple Crown winner. If Kershaw shows his improved walk rate is real and not a fluke, he'll challenge Halladay's throne.
4. Cliff Lee, PHI - A left-handed and slightly lesser version of Halladay, Lee's strikeout rate jumped to over nine-per-nine with the move to the NL last season.
5. CC Sabathia, NYY - Few pitchers move to the AL East and get better like Sabathia has. His strikeout rate shot back up last season, and he's always got a shot at 20+ wins.
6. Felix Hernandez, SEA - The King saw his ERA jump over a full run last season even though his underlying performance was unchanged. Continue to expect greatness.
7. Cole Hamels, PHI - Overshadowed by the two guys ahead of him in the rotation, Hamels is entering his prime years and is poised for a huge contract push.
8. Jered Weaver, LAA - Weaver's strikeout rate dropping back into the mid-7.0 K/9 range after one year over nine-per-nine, but he's at his peak right now and his team improved around him.
9. Tim Lincecum, SF - It's hard to ignore the trends - three-year decline in strikeout rate and two-year decline in walk rate - but Lincecum is starting from such a high baseline that he could continue to decline and still be elite.
10. David Price, TB - Price's underlying performance in 2011 was better than in 2010, but his ERA and win total didn't reflect the improvement. At age 26, another step forward could be coming.
11. Dan Haren, LAA - Not facing pitchers anymore did take a bite out of Haren's strikeout total, but the more favorable park helped his homer rate and ERA. Still somehow underrated.
12. Yovani Gallardo, MIL - The fluky low homer rate from 2010 (0.6 HR/9) returned to his career average last season (1.2 HR/9), but the long ball is the only blemish in Gallardo's game.
13. Jon Lester, BOS - Both his strikeout and homer rate took steps back last season, but Lester is right in his prime years with a great team around him. He gets the benefit of the doubt after one off year.
14. Zack Greinke, MIL - An early-season rib injury cost him about five starts, but otherwise his strikeout run jumped more than three whiffs per nine to 10.54 K/9. I doubt he'll ever be 2009 good again, but Greinke is still excellent.
15. Matt Cain, SF - Remarkably consistent, Cain doesn't get a ton of strikeouts and his team doesn't always give him the most run support, but you know exactly what you'll get out of him each year.
16. James Shields, TB - After giving up homer after homer in 2010, Shields incorporated his curveball more in 2011 to get more ground balls while keeping his strikeout and walk rates static. Sub-3.00 ERAs in the AL East are hard to sustain, however.
17. Madison Bumgarner, SF - Still only 22, MadBum took a big step forward in the strikeout department last season while keeping his walks down. There's still more roon for growth here.
18. Mat Latos, CIN - Despite playing in Petco Park, Latos has next to no home/road split. He'll inevitably surrender more homers in Cincinnati, but everything else makes up for it.
19. C.J. Wilson, LAA - Moving from hitter friendly Texas to pitcher friendly Anaheim will help Wilson's performance, but facing his old mates six times a year won't.
20. Ian Kennedy, ARI - Kennedy is an extreme fly ball pitcher who probably should have allowed a few more homers last season (0.8 HR/9), but that's pretty much the only blemish on his record.
21. Matt Garza, CHC - It wasn't just the move to the NL that boosted Garza's performance. He starting throwing substantially more sliders and changeups, and the results were a ton more strikeouts and grounders.
22. Anibal Sanchez, FLA - Now more than three full years out from shoulder surgery, Sanchez's strikeout rate jumped in his age 27 last year. If the Marlins' new stadium plays as big as expected, he could end up a top ten fantasy starter.
23. Stephen Strasburg, WAS - Strasburg will be held to 160 IP or so in 2012, but his performance in 92 big league innings has been off the charts good. The upside is scary.
24. Michael Pineda, NYY - Moving to a tougher league and tougher division will hurt his numbers, but Pineda will get a ton more run and bullpen support while fantasy owners will get more wins.
25. Ricky Romero, TOR - Owner of the quietest sub-3.00 ERA in baseball last year, Romero has been improving his walk rate while keeping his strikeout and ground ball rates static. He just keeps getting better.
26. Josh Beckett, BOS - The question with Beckett continues to be health. His performance was ace-like last year, but you have to count on him missing a handful of starts a year, if not more.
27. Jordan Zimmermann, WAS - As he gets futher away from Tommy John surgery, hopefully the strikeout stuff Zimmermann showed in 2009 returns. Big time breakout potential.
28. Gio Gonzalez, WAS - Gio has gotten better every year of his career, but moving out of the spacious Colisseum in Oakland will jack up his homer rate a bit. 
29. Adam Wainwright, STL - A bonafide fantasy ace before Tommy John surgery, Wainwright will be back this season and will probably struggle with control like most guys a year out from elbow surgery.
30. Yu Darvish, TEX - Everything is there for greatness, but his expected performance is completely unpredictable. I usually steer clear of international imports in year one.
31. Daniel Hudson, ARI - Hudson traded some strikeouts for ground balls last year, which isn't a trade that helps fantasy owners. Still only 24, he needs to get back to missing bats like he did in 2010.
32. Shaun Marcum, MIL - The big concern here is Marcum's dreadful finish to the season, which carried over into the playoffs. If that's behind him, expect another mid-3.00 ERAs and 13 or so wins.
33. Tommy Hanson, ATL - Last year's shoulder problem and this spring's concussion make Hanson a questionable proposition, but his performance in 460.1 big league innings is tough to top.
34. Jeremy Hellickson, TB - The peripheral stats (4.42 FIP) don't match the ERA (2.95), so Hellickson is going to have to beef up his strikeout or ground ball rate to maintain long-term success. Don't overvalue him based on the Rookie of the Year Award.
35. Johnny Cueto, CIN - Ignore the ERA (2.31) but be conscious of the three-year decline in strikeout rate. Cueto's also good for an injury or two during the season as well.
36. Chris Carpenter, STL - Carpenter threw a career high 237.1 IP last season at age 36, the last 30 or so with a barking elbow. There's some serious risk here.
37. Brandon Beachy, ATL - An oblique injury sabotaged Beachy's first full season, but he still showed big time strikeout stuff and a miniscule walk rate in his 25 starts. He might be too well known to qualify as a sleeper.
38. Max Scherzer, DET - Scherzer cut his walk rate a bit last season but gave up a ton more homers, way more than his career average. I doubt that will happen again in Comerica Park.
39. Jaime Garcia, STL - Garcia maintained his strikeout and ground ball rates last year while cutting down on his walks, but his ERA rose nearly a full run. I expect him to finish with an ERA closer to 3.00 than 4.00.
40. Cory Luebke, SD - Luebke's gaudy strikeout rate (9.9 K/9) was the same as both a starter (17 starts) and reliever (29 appearances) last year. He keeps the walks down and will benefit from Petco, giving him serious sleeper potential.
41. Ervin Santana, LAA - The fourth wheel in the Halos' rotation, Santana's strikeout rate has never matched his stuff. He did improve his ground ball rate, but I can't see another sub-3.40 ERA in 2012.
42. Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE - Ubaldo's strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates didn't budge from 2010 to 2011, but his ERA shot up nearly two full runs. He's very enigmatic, but another 4.00+ ERA would surprise me.
43. Matt Moore, TB - The potential is drool worthy, and Moore's new contract means there is no reason for Tampa not to have him in the Opening Day rotation.
44. Josh Johnson, FLA - It's all about health. When he's on the mound, Johnson is one of the ten best pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately he's only make 37 starts over the last two seasons.
45. Justin Masterson, CLE - Masterson's success last year had to do with his newfound ability to neutralize lefties. He won't give you strikeouts or a great WHIP, but he's rock solid overall.
46. Brandon Morrow, TOR - The peripherals say the ERA should be better, but we're going on close to 350 IP as a starter now. The strikeouts will be great, but Morrow can be frustrating.
47. Scott Baker, MIN - Baker is better than he gets credit for, but he's a lock to miss time with injury each year. I could see Ian Kennedy-type numbers if he manages 33 starts.
48. Hiroki Kuroda, NYY - I doubt he maintains a near-3.00 ERA after the move to New York, but the Yankees will help boost Kuroda's win total north of his career-high 13.
49. Wandy Rodriguez, HOU - Wandy's performance took a bit of a hit last year, but if his strikeout rate keeps falling it's going to be hard to get value out of him. A mid-3.00 ERAs with few wins and strikeouts isn't all that great.
50. Derek Holland, TEX - A definite breakout candidate, Holland improved his walk rate as last season progressed, his biggest bugaboo. Now the strikeout rate has to follow suit.
51. John Danks, CHW - Now the top lefty in Chicaco, Danks has improved both his strikeout and walk rates every year since 2009. There's no reason he shouldn't get to being a 3.70 ERA guy.
52. Jhoulys Chacin, COL - Chacin became sinker-heavy last season, leading to an increased ground ball rate but a below average strikeout rate. A balance between the two would be best.
53. Doug Fister, DET - Don't count on a repeat of his late-season dominant following the trade. Fister allows a lot of balls to be put in play and doesn't get a ton of ground balls. Expect an ERA closer to 4.00 than 3.00.
54. Trevor Cahill, ARI - Moving to the NL should help Cahill's strikout rate, but Chase Field will not be as kind as the Colisseum. He needs to miss more bats to boost his fantasy value.
55. Clay Buchholz, BOS - Buchholz hasn't racked up the strikeout totals his stuff suggests he should, but the real issue in health. Back trouble limited him to just 14 starts last season.
56. Chad Billingsley, LAD - The three-year decline in strikeout rate is scary, and control has never been Billingsley's forte. He's another guy that will leave you wanting more.
57. Brandon McCarthy, OAK - McCarthy has gained notoriety for his use of sabermetrics to revive his career, though his strikeout and win totals won't be of much benefit to fantasy owners. Neither does his history of shoulder problems.
58. Jonathon Niese, NYM - Niese has shown the ability to miss bats, limit walks, and get ground balls, but he's also good at getting hurt. He could really take off with good health.
59. Gavin Floyd, CHW - Safe, reliable, and predictable. Floyd isn't great at anything but he'll do a swell job in four of the five pitching categories.
60. Edwin Jackson, WAS - Jackson is in his prime years and has developed into a rock solid workhorse starter, but his strikeout totals don't match his stuff. Another safe option like Floyd.

Honorable Mention: Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison & Alexi Ogando, TEX; Tim Hudson, Mike Minor & Jair Jurrjens, ATL; Bud Norris, HOU; Ricky Nolasco, FLA; Homer Bailey, CIN; Ryan Vogelsong, SF; Vance Worley, PHI; Francisco Liriano, MIN; A.J. Burnett, PIT; Ivan Nova, NYY; Chris Capuano, LAD

Other Positions: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Shortstop, Third Base, Outfield

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2012 Position Rankings: Outfield

Update: The rankings have been changed to reflect Ryan Braun's successful appeal of his 50-game suspension.

It's time to move out of the infield and into the outfield, where we'll find fantasy's most diverse group of players. As always, these rankings are based on 12-team mixed leagues with traditional 5x5 scoring.

1. Matt Kemp, LAD - While I doubt Kemp will be able to make good on his promise of going 50-50 this year, the new $160MM man is the best all-around player in fantasy baseball. He might not hit .324 again, but 30-30 with 100+ RBI and 100+ runs scored feels like the floor here. He missed 40-40 by one homer in 2011, don't be surprised if he gets it in 2012.
2. Ryan Braun, MIL - Now that we know Braun will be in play for the first 50 games of the season, he steps in as the clear number two behind Kemp. Expect MVP caliber numbers again. (Formerly #11)
3. Justin Upton, ARI - Still six months shy of his 25th birthday, Upton is just scratching the surface of his potential. He cut down on his strikeouts drastically last year, and has a chance to turn that 30-20 effort into 35-25 this summer.
4. Jose Bautista, TOR - It's tough to expect anyone to hit 40 HR these days, but if I was going to put money on someone, it would be Bautista. He does everything but steal bases.
5. Carlos Gonzalez, COL - CarGo missed more than three weeks with a wrist problem last season, but he was on a 30 HR, 25 SB pace and nearly drove in 100 runs anyway. Now he's healthy.
6. Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS - We're going to have to see if that 30+ HR power he showed last year is here to stay, but Ellsbury is still tremendously valuable if he only goes deep 20 times because of his stolen base ability.
7. Curtis Granderson, NYY - He might not hit 40+ HR again, but Granderson's power isn't just a product of cozy Yankee Stadium: he hit 21 HR at home and 20 on the road last year.
8. Andrew McCutchen, PIT - McCutchen hit more fly balls than ever before last season, which is why his average (and BABIP) dropped 30 points. You'll get 20-20 production and hopefully a rebound in batting average.
9. Mike Stanton, FLA - If HR distance was a category, he'd be the first overall pick. Stanton has massive power and run production potential, but he won't hit for average or steal many bases.
10. Josh Hamilton, TEX - The production is elite ... when he's actually on the field. Hamilton has played in 135 games just once in his five years, and that came back in 2008.
11. Hunter Pence, HOU - Hopefully Pence gets back to stealing 15+ bases again, but otherwise he's a better than average contributor in the other four categories.
12. Alex Gordon, KC - Last year's breakout was long-awaited, and Gordon has the potential to do even more next season (think .300/20/100/100/20).
13. Matt Holliday, STL - Holliday will be asked to do more following the departure of Albert Pujols, and some good health will get him back into .300/25/100/100 territory.
14. Jay Bruce, CIN - Bruce might not hit for much average or steal many bases, but he's about to become a perennial 30/100/100 fantasy player.
15. Ben Zobrist, TB - Zobrist doesn't hit for much average but he helps everywhere else. His production is more useful at second base, however.
16. Shin-Soo Choo, CLE - One of fantasy' biggest disappointments last year, an obligue strain kept Choo from his usual .300 average and 20-20 production. I expect a big rebound.
17. Michael Bourn, ATL - It's all about stolen bases (think 50+), batting average (.280+), and runs (90+) here, not power (maybe five if you're lucky) or RBI (maybe 50).
18. Lance Berkman, STL - We got to see vintage Puma one last time last year, and I wouldn't expect another .300/30/100/100 season. That said, he'll still be really productive at an easier position.
19. Mike Morse, WAS - There will continue to be doubters, but Morse is going on nearly 900 plate appearances of elite production and is right in his prime. He'll do just about everything but steal bases.
20. Nelson Cruz, TEX - Cruz is a lesser version of Hamilton, meaning he produces when he's on the field, which isn't often enough (hasn't topped 130 games since 2008).
21. Adam Jones, BAL - Jones is entering his prime years and could push 30 HR in the obscurity of Baltimore. There's plenty of breakout potential here.
22. Shane Victorino, PHI - The Flyin' Hawaiian missed time with thumb and hamstring problems last year, but he should get back over 30 steals and push 20 dingers with good health.
23. B.J. Upton, TB - You can pencil the elder Upton in for 30+ steals right now, and he should offer 20+ HR power to go along with a middling batting average and okay run production numbers.
24. Corey Hart, MIL - An obligue strain prevented Hart from topping 30 HR for the second straight year, but he's a .280/30/100/100 candidate when right. That's seriously valuable.
25. Desmond Jennings, TB - Be careful not to overrate him based on his hot start last year, but Jennings has legitimate 20-40 potential and should score a ton of runs atop Tampa's lineup.
26. Carlos Beltran, STL - He's not going to steal 20+ bases again, but Beltran provides big value if he can stay on the field. He did play 140+ games for the first time in three years in 2012, but still managed one DL trip.
27. Nick Swisher, NYY - Swisher is a consistent 20+ HR, 80+ RBI, 80+ runs guy that could do more in a stack lineup and friendly ballpark. Plus it's a contract year.
28. Brett Gardner, NYY - It's a shame they don't count UZR in fantasy, though the 40+ steals and 90+ runs will have to suffice. Gardner could slap his way to .280+, but hasn't yet.
29. Jayson Werth, WAS - Werth's disappointing first year in Washington was nearly his third 20-20 season in the last four years. His batted ball profile and BABIP doesn't jive, so expect something better than .232 in 2012.
30. Drew Stubbs, CIN - Stubbs does everything but make consistent contact, so he'll never provide much average. Twenty homers and 30+ steals sure sounds good though.
31. Chris Young, ARI - The 30-30 candidate barely cracked 20-20 last season, and his average dipped into the low-.200s to boot. I think a step forward is more likely than another step back for the 28-year-old.
32. Cameron Maybin, SD - Petco Park won't help him any, but Maybin is a 40+ steal guy and can pop double-digit homers with a decent average going forward.
33. Matt Joyce, RF - A hot start and a slow finished averaged out to a fine season, and Joyce could turn into a 20-15 player in 2012 as he takes another step forward.
34. Carl Crawford, BOS - Crawford was so bad last year tha he can't help but be better in 2012, right? He's going to miss the first few weeks with a wrist problem, but I have to think the .300/15/40 guy is still in there.
35. Logan Morrison, FLA - LoMo's undeserved demotion likely cost him a shot at 30 HR last season, but he'll get the chance to play all year under Ozzie Guillen and has serious breakout potential.
36. Nick Markakis, BAL - Unlike his teammate Jones, Markakis has completely plateaued in recent years and now is a .280/15/70/70/10 type. Solid, but not what we expected a few years ago.
37. Jason Heyward, ATL - A shoulder problem had Heyward all fouled up last year, though he's still an extreme ground ball hitter than needs to get the ball in the air if he wants to hit for more power.
38. Josh Willingham, MIN -Moving to Target Field won't hurt Willingham's numbers much coming from Oakland, assuming he stays on the field. He could push 30 HR if he avoids the DL for the first time in three years.
39. Howie Kendrick, LAA - Kendrick spent enough time in left last year to qualify as an outfielder, though his .280+ average and 15-15 production is more valuable at second base.
40. Michael Cuddyer, COL - Moving from Target Field to Coors Field will help his numbers, but I wouldn't expect a return to the 30 HR level. Cuddyer's a solid producer, nothing more.
41. Ichiro Suzuki, SEA - Ichiro is showing all the tell-tale signs of age-related decline, namely struggling to hit the ball in the air consistently. He'll still swipe a ton of bases, but don't count on those elite batting averages coming back.
42. Carlos Lee, HOU - Lee saw his batting average rebound last year, though his power has been in a steady decline and only figures to get worse. His teammates won't help him in the run production categories either.
43. Peter Bourjos, LAA - Bourjos has shown surprising pop so far in the big leagues, and the speed is there for him to steal 30+ bases. There's some sneaky high upside here.
44. Austin Jackson, DET - A big spike in fly balls resulted in a 56-point BABIP drop but also 2.5 times as many homers as he'd hit the year before. Jackson could steal 30 bases, but he strikes out too much to hit for average.
45. Melky Cabrera, SF - The Melkman delivered the best season of his career in 2011, and was rewarded with a trade to one of the game's worst hitter's parks. Don't count on him repeating 2011, he won't in AT&T Park.
46. Coco Crisp, OAK - Crisp's stolen base totals have increased with age, and he's still young enough (32) to have at least one more 40 steal season in those legs.
47. Torii Hunter, LAA - Hunter's production is starting to wane with age, but having Pujols in the lineup should boost his run production numbers. Don't be surprised if he fails to crack 20 HR for the first time in seven years.
48. Andre Ethier, LAD - Ethier's power disappeared last year, though his knee trouble is at least partially to blame. He could have a big contract year in him, but I'll settle for his old .290/20/90 production.
49. Brennan Boesch, DET - One of my breakout picks, Boesch had a shot at 25 HR last year if thumb problem didn't end his season in late-August. Now he'll be batting in front of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.
50. Angel Pagan, SF - I'd count on Pagan for nothing but steals, and he should give you 35+ if he stays healthy. His ballpark will limit his power production, and there's not enough of a BABIP correction coming to get excited.
51. Martin Prado, ATL - Prado should see a BABIP rebound next year since his batted ball profile didn't change much from 2010-2011, but he's not going to hit for average or steal bases.
52. Emilio Bonifacio, FLA - Appearing in our rankings at his third different position, Bonifacio's story hasn't changed: he'll steal a ton of bases but won't hit for any power, and there are reasons to expect his average to come back to Earth.
53. Carlos Quentin, SD - Quentin has the kind of right-handed power needed to conquer Petco, but health remains the real issue. He always leaves you wanting more.
54. Colby Rasmus, TOR - A wrist problem sabotaged his first half-season in Toronto, but Rasmus has 20-20 potential and could score a ton of runs if he bats ahead of Bautista in the lineup.
55. Lucas Duda, NYM - One of fantasy's better sleeper candidates, Duda has serious left-handed pop and should push 20 HR and 80 RBI with regular playing time.
56. Dexter Fowler, COL - After stealing 27 bases in 2009, Fowler has stolen just 25 bases since. He has to get back to being that guy, otherwise he offers very little beyond runs scored.
57. Jeff Francoeur, KC - Frenchy was the game's most unheralded 20-20 player last year, but the track record of mediocrity is so long that I can't be anything but skeptical going forward.
58. Delmon Young, MIN - Cut from the same cloth as Francoeur, Young was fantastic with the Tigers but won't be hitting in front of Cabrera now. Lineup protection is general overstated, but not in the case of elite hitters.
59. Mike Trout, LAA - The talent is world class, but will the Angels find enough playing time for Trout this year? If so, he could swipe 30 bags and offer a whole lot more.
60. Yoenis Cespedes, OAK - Your guess is as good as mine. Everything indicates 25+ HR potential, but it's been a long time since he's faced live pitching and he's never faced MLB caliber pitching before. Roster him at your own risk.

Honorable Mention: Ben Revere, MIN; Nyjer Morgan, MIL; Alfonso Soriano, CHC; Jose Tabata, PIT; Rajai Davis, TOR; Brandon Belt, SF; Seth Smith, OAK; Chris Heisey, CIN; John Mayberry Jr., PHI; Jason Bay, NYM

Other Positions: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Shortstop, Third Base

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