Fantasy Baseball Projections

Howie Kendrick Alert

I hadn't realized Adam Kennedy was in his contract year.  The Angels have a mixed record as far as pushing vets aside for quality youngsters.

The Halos cleared a spot for Jeff Mathis this year by letting Bengie Molina walk.  They did the same for Dallas McPherson the year before with Glaus.  On the other hand, Casey Kotchman and Juan Rivera have kind of been languishing.  And Orlando Cabrera got a four-year deal despite some talent in the pipeline.

Anywho, Howie Kendrick looks like a damn good bet for a .300 average with 15-20 HR pop and 15 steal potential too.  He's a hacker but he makes contact.  His bandwagon is picking up steam lately, so he's not sleeper material.  But he looks like a top fantasy 2B for years to come.  Whether Kennedy is dealt or just allowed to walk after the season, you have to be aware of Kendrick. 

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A Few Thoughts On Bruce Chen

I noticed this comment by ESPN's Tristan Cockcroft today in a chat:

"I can't believe no one is talking more about Bruce Chen, especially with Mazzone now in Baltimore. Everyone seems to focus on Daniel Cabrera and Erik Bedard as the breakout candidates, but Chen has pitched pretty well for the Orioles of late. I think he's a lot better candidate to repeat his 2005 totals than people think; it's not like he lacks the talent to be a successful pitcher. Plus, he hasn't been picked in a single one of my mixed drafts to this point. I'd take a flier on him."

Interesting case, Bruce Chen.  He surprised many with a career high 13 wins in 2005.  It was his age 28 season, and he also posted a 3.83 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.  His strikeout rate was league average, and 197 innings was a career high.

Chen gives up a lot of home runs, but he's a solid back of the rotation type.  I project him at 11 wins with a 4.08 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this year.  PECOTA calls for 4.24 and 1.32.  This ain't bad, but Chen is waiver wire material in mixed leagues.  I project his value at $1.58.  Still, I'd take him over guys like Jarrod Washburn and Mike Mussina.

Bedard doesn't project a whole lot better, but he's gotten a lot more press.  I have Cabrera valued over $7, however.  He could rack up 175 Ks and an ERA around 3.50.

Still, if you're searching for boring back-rotation guys, why not take the safe money?  I think Paul Byrd, Greg Maddux, and Jon Lieber will be better than any of the previously mentioned starters and have better health/performance track records.  Control pitchers don't get your blood pumping, but you should take these guys over Cabrera.

Liebs especially could surprise some folks.  220 innings from him means 150 Ks, and his WHIP is always near 1.20.  He could win 15-16 games in 2006.  He posted a 3.28 ERA after the break in '05, and with just a couple less HRs could post a 3.75 ERA in '06.  Underrated fantasy starter. 

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Armando Benitez Projection

Purchasers of my 2006 Fantasy Guide may have noticed that Armando Benitez is valued at just $2.39, right below Kyle Farnsworth.  Given that Benitez posted a 1.29 ERA with 47 saves in his last healthy season, what gives?  Let's take a peek under the hood and see why I've projected Benitez to have a 4.26 ERA in 2006.

To begin with, I have Benitez pitching 68 innings in '06.  It's his previously established healthy level, and he hasn't really exceeded it since 2001.

Next, let's look at his K rate.  While there are some dangerously small samples from 2003 and 2005, Benitez's strikeout rate has seen a fairly steady decline since 1999.  I've pegged it at 7.6 per nine for his age 33 season, which would be better than his '05 mark in 30 innings.  Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system thinks Benitez will remain at 2005's 6.9 K/9 rate.  The ZiPS system went with 8.1, a rise from his 2004 mark.

Now it's time to predict Benitez's hit rate.  This is far from an exact science, but I'll do my best.  I put it at 7.4 hits per nine.  It hasn't been that high in a full season since '03, and Benitez  posted a remarkably low 4.6 per nine rate in 2004.  I'm not sure how much control he has over his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) but the .178 mark from '04 seems a tad lucky.  ZiPS says 7.4 and PECOTA went with 7.9. 

Walk rate must also be projected for us to come up with his WHIP.  2004 and maybe 2002 were the only two seasons during which Benitez had walk rates that could be considered good.  He has a 4.62 per nine career mark, and I went with 4.65.   I think he could get this down to 4.3, but I'd be surprised to see much better than that.  The field does not agree, as ZiPS said 4.0 and PECOTA 4.2.  In their defense, Benitez's career walk rate is influenced by some wildness early in his career.

My projections call for a 1.34 WHIP, versus 1.40 from PECOTA and 1.28 from ZiPS.  The range here is huge, with the most variation in the walks allowed portion.  Improved control is how Benitez would most likely prove my projection wrong.

I was pessimistic in projected his HR rate, going with 1.1 per nine.  He hasn't been that bad in a full season since '02, but Benitez did spend 2004 in a major pitchers' park.  ZiPS went with 0.90 and PECOTA predicts 1.1.

Given Benitez's salary and the weak San Francisco bullpen, it'd be a surprise to see him lose his job.  That's why I still predicted 34 saves.  According to the depth chart at The Closer Watch, we could have to endure more 9th innings in the hands of Tyler Walker if Benitez really blows up or gets hurt.   

PECOTA projects a 4.40 ERA while ZiPS is kinder with 4.03.  My final projection:

IP	H	HR	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP	W	SV
68	56	8	35	57	4.26	1.34	5	34

There's plenty of uncertainty here, but three independent systems predict an ERA over 4 for San Francisco's closer.  I'm not sure what kind of price Benitez will go for in auctions this year, but I'd have to think it will be more than $5.  He went in the 11th round of ESPN's expert mock draft, ahead of Tom Gordon, Eddie Guardado, Brian Fuentes, and Jose Valverde.  At this point in his career Benitez just doesn't look like a good fantasy investment, and I'd prefer any of those four.

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More ABs For V-Mart?

Sheldon Ocker of the Akron Beacon Journal reports some fantasy-relevant comments made by Indians manager Eric Wedge recently:

"This year, we need Hafner to play a little more first base, so Victor can be the (occasional) DH.  Victor also is taking more ground balls at first, so he can play a little there. It's tough to take his offense out of the lineup."

Owners of these two players just let out a collective "BOOYAH!"  Well, maybe not, but it can only be construed as a positive.  Think about the ramifications:

1.  More at-bats for Victor Martinez.  Most owners of V-Mart barely thought this possible after he tallied 547 ABs in 2005.  But if Martinez continues to catch a ton of games and spends additional time at first base and DH, he could certainly snag 580 at-bats.  Now, such a jump would only mean maybe a 5% bump in his counting stats, but it pulls him even further away from Joe Mauer as the best offensive receiver in the game.

2.  V-Mart gains first base eligibility.  I've never known an owner to have a catcher surplus, and it would be downright silly to use Victor anywhere else.  However, there could be a long-term benefit here to his keeper league owners.  Maybe the Tribe hangs on to Kelly Shoppach, who would make a very capable Major League regular right now.  Martinez continues to catch a decent share of games but severely decelerates the typical catcher decline by switching to a much easier position for half his games. 

3.  Hafner gains first base eligibility.  When I picked Hafner up in the second round in my RotoWorld draft, I was accepting a lack of maneuverability with my DH slot for the rest of the season.  Hafner only played one game at first in 2005, so I can't use him at a corner.  But maybe he starts playing 15-20 games at first base now, giving my team all sorts of options when I start making transactions later.  Hard to pin a dollar amount on position eligibility, but this could theoretically put Hafner slightly above David Ortiz.

4.  Kelly Shoppach stays in Cleveland.  This is actually a negative in my book.  Not only is Jacobs Field a pitchers' park, but a lack of a trade damages Shoppach's fantasy potential.  He's not taking over full-time catching duties from Martinez.  Shoppach bashed 26 HR in 371 Triple A at-bats in 2005, and a park like Citizens Bank would inflate his homers by 20%.  The Phils have a known interest in Shoppach, and such a deal would be the best fantasy scenario for him outside of Coors.    

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More On Chris Duffy

I last wrote about Chris Duffy on February 12th, mentioning that he could steal 30 bags if he gets 550 ABs.  After reading the praise heaped on him in this article, my confidence in his ability and playing time has improved.

Jim Tracy loves the guy.  It really looks like a foregone conclusion that the center field/leadoff job is Duffy's to lose.  This is his age 26 season, and he's spent plenty of time in the minors.  Despite his blazing speed, Duffy stole only 17 bases in 308 Triple A at-bats last year.  He's not quite  a high percentage basestealer, and he didn't do much in 39 games for the Pirates.

At this point Duffy looks like a .280-.290 hitter who would have a hard time not stealing 20 bases in a full season.  But it seems that he's expected to be aggressive and utilize his speed, so 30 is entirely possible.  Regardless, Duffy has little value to mixed leaguers except perhaps as a short-term injury replacement.   NL-only folks should view him top 25 outfielder worthy of a double digit bid.  In the best case scenario, Duffy becomes Randy Winn in a few years. 

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MLB Free Agents 2006: Rafael Furcal

Ah, Rafael Furcal.  Overrated, underrated, or somewhere in-between?  How should you handle this man when it comes to 2006?

Furcal is playing almost exactly on par with what Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projection system expected.  BP thought Furcal would hit .274 with 12 HR and a .337 OBP.  In fact, he's currently hitting .276 with 11 HR and a .341 OBP.  Not bad. 

The only area in which Baseball Prospectus missed the mark was stolen bases.  Furcal has 38 swipes and could get that number up to 50 if he really wants to.  What PECOTA didn't take into account is that 2005 is Rafael Furcal's contract year.

Furcal will easily set a career high in steals this year, and that can only help in the dollar sign department.  After 2004, Edgar Renteria was coming off a .287-10-72 year, adding 17 steals to the equation.  Unlike Furcal, Renteria does have an awesome season under his belt - he hit .330-13-100 with 34 steals in 2003. 

Since Furcal is three years younger than Renteria, he can be expected to match Renteria's four year, $40 million dollar deal.  The players' defense is probably comparable.  It also doesn't hurt that Furcal has been on fire since July. 

So which team will pony up the cash for baseball's third-best shortstop?  The Diamondbacks and Cubs seem to be the most likely suitors.  The Cubs' interest obviously hinges on the Nomar Garciaparra situation.  We just can't see Dusty playing Ronny Cedeno every day, so the Cubs should end up with one of the two. 

What kind of year should you expect out of Furcal in 2006?  With Ray Durham circa 1999 high on his comparables list, an uptick in power is not out the question.  Think maybe 20 homers on the high end.  We expect Furcal to back off on the thefts and end up with 30 steals, tops.

Unfortunately there are only a handful of 20/30 threats from the shortstop position, and Rafael Furcal is one of them.  If he starts be a more selective, consistent hitter, he may be able to hit .300 as well.  Be ready to go up to $20 on him in your auction this spring.   

Check out all the Roto Authority MLB Free Agents 2006 articles.  You'll find speculation and rumors concerning Johnny Damon, A.J. Burnett, Trevor Hoffman, Brian Giles, B.J. Ryan, and more.   

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Fantasy Baseball Advice: Duke Nukes 'Em

Three weeks later, it's time to revisit Pittsburgh prospect Zach Duke.  On the heels of yet another dominant victory, we'll look at just how sustainable the 22 year-old's success will be.

When we last spoke of Zach Duke, we implored you to pick him up immediately.   The Roto Authority was singing his praises after two excellent starts to begin his major league career.  We did caution that his ERA would certainly not remain near  1.93.  In a way, we were right:  Duke's ERA now stands at a miniscule 0.92 after 39.1 innings pitched.  Duke struck out just two in today's annihilation of the red-hot Braves, but his performance was still excellent. 

We expected the strikeouts to come back down to Earth, but we also expected the ERA to ascend to the 3.50 range.   Duke has been stingy with the hits and walks, and it's paid off so far.  Throwing out his rain delay game, Duke is averaging 107 pitches per game.  Despite Duke's age, Lloyd McClendon is not giving him the quick hook.  Expect Felix Hernandez's debut this Thursday in Seattle to be much the opposite - he will be limited to 80 pitches and is no lock to stay in the rotation. 

So what to do with Duke from a fantasy baseball perspective?  What can we expect from him in the future? 

Let's turn to Baseball Prospectus's forecasting system, PECOTA, for some estimates.  PECOTA foresaw a 3.28 ERA in 133 innings from Duke as a best case scenario, that is, his 90th percentile projection.   He can do that while maintaining pretty much the same strikeout and walk rates.   An ERA in the 3 range is a reasonable projection for 2005.

What about a long-term projection?  PECOTA sees Duke's top comparables as Mark Buehrle, Rick Wise, and Tommy John.   Duke should be happy to be mentioned in the same breath as these guys at the tender age of 22.  So you're looking at a durable pitcher with an ERA below 3.50 for at least the next five years.  Wins may be hard to come by on a team like the Pirates. 

Should you "sell high" on Zach Duke?  It depends.  Duke's 0.92 ERA and perfect record are obviously over his head.  Still, he's yet to have a bad start and many teams will still be facing him for the first time.  He could easily finish the year 10-2 with a 2.40 ERA.  Even if the success is fleeting, what pitcher could give you better numbers?  Not very many.

Don't deal Duke for a pitcher unless you receive a bona fide young ace, such as Rich Harden, Mark Prior, or Johan Santana.  Since these deals are unlikely, consider an up-and-coming can't miss position player.  David Wright and Miguel Cabrera come to mind.  Position players are more reliable and less susceptible to injury, so if you consider yourself a shrewd pitching evaluator, deal Duke for one of these types.  Names like Jeff Francoeur might seem tempting, but you need top-line proven talent to pull the trigger.

Rock N' Roto: Today we are recommending an obscure, rocking album from the band Ozma.  Ozma's 2001 album Rock and Roll Part Three features eleven power-pop tracks reminiscent of Weezer, back when Weezer rocked.  The album features the best baseball song ever recorded, the aptly titled, "Baseball."  Expect plenty of keyboards and vocal harmonies.  This blogger is right - "Baseball" may well be one of the best ten songs you've never heard. 

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