Fantasy Baseball Projections

Kenshin Kawakami Examined

One pitcher I haven't paid much attention to this year is Kenshin Kawakami of the Braves.  Ditto for Koji Uehara, but I'm less intrigued with him pitching in the AL East.

Mock drafters are taking Kawakami in the 19th round.  By comparison, Hiroki Kuroda went in the 25th round last year.  So there is increased awareness for mid-level Japanese import starters.

To project Kawakami, we head over to BaseballProjection.com, home of CHONE.  They project Kawakami for a 3.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8 wins, and 113 Ks in 123 innings.  Looks like the makings of a sleeper, especially since the Braves probably are looking to get 180+ innings out of him.  It will be interesting to see a few other projection systems weigh in on Kawakami, who posted a 2.30 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 117.3 innings in Japan last year.

Scouting-wise there is reason for skepticism.  Here's what Keith Law had to say:

Kawakami posted solid strikeout rates in Japan, but without a clear out pitch he doesn't project to miss as many bats in MLB. His fastball is fringe-average, and he'll likely have to change his approach and pitch more with his offspeed stuff. Like all pitchers coming from Japan, he'll also have to adjust to the larger baseball used here.

So we shouldn't count on that projected 8.27 K/9.  Law believes Kawakami will be HR-prone as well.  CHONE has Kawakami's HR rate at 1.02 per nine.  Law believes he will be prone to the four-bagger, so it may be safer to put him down for 1.1 or 1.2.

19th round, though...go for it.  He's a nice guy to snag as the sixth starter on your fantasy team.

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Chris Davis Projections

Most projection systems see big things for Rangers infielder Chris Davis after he smacked 17 home runs in 295 ABs as a rookie.  Davis qualifies at first base, and also at third if ten games played cuts it in your league. 

Assuming 550 at-bats, here are the projections for Davis:

• Bill James: .302-39-115-104-8.
• Baseball HQ: .285-36-104-94-3.
• CHONE: .265-29-102-89-6.

So we're looking at something like .284-35-107-99-6 on average.  Davis is currently being drafted in the ninth round, 15th among first basemen (behind Carlos Pena, Derrek Lee, Carlos Delgado, Joey Votto, and James Loney).  None of these guys have anything on Davis aside from experience.  Here on December 19th he looks like a great sleeper at position 105.25, but we'll see where that average draft position is in March.

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A 3.35 ERA For Phil Hughes?

I've been having fun with the Bill James projections, which you can purchase for $9.95 here.  Today let's take a look at some interesting starters they project to post an ERA under 4.00 in 2009.

• Barry Zito - 3.94
• Tim Wakefield - 3.91
• Jonathan Sanchez - 3.90
• Jorge Campillo - 3.86
• Pedro Martinez - 3.36
• Phil Hughes - 3.35

A few of those are quite bold.  Hughes may be the Yankees' sixth starter heading into 2009, but they have him third in ERA in the American League.  How do they think he'll pull this off?  With an 8.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9, and 7.92 H/9.  Hughes has not demonstrated those skills in his 106.2 big league innings.

As for Pedro, projection systems can't understand he had major surgery and isn't the same pitcher.  Most of you incorporate gut feel when crafting your fantasy teams, and this is a great example why that's necessary.

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A Look At Travis Snider

Today let's take a look at Blue Jays outfielder Travis Snider.

Snider was drafted 14th overall out of high school in 2006.  He ascended very quickly, starting 2008 in High A ball and making it to the Majors.  Only 20 years old, he hit .301/.338/.466 in 80 big league plate appearances.

More importantly than his brief Major League stint, let's look at Snider's Major League Equivalent.  This is a translation of his minor league work in Major League terms.  That line: .277/.358/.485.  23 HR in 480 ABs.  In a way, that's what we might've expected if he spent all of 2008 in the bigs.  Would've been a phenomenal rookie season for a kid so young.

Scouting-wise, Baseball America loves Snider.  They say he has the tools to hit for average and power, but has below-average speed. 

Much like Jay Bruce in 2008, Snider's '09 opportunity is in question.  At present, the Jays are undecided at left field and DH.  However, they could sign a DH-type and continue trying Adam Lind in left.  Assuming Lyle Overbay stays, Snider could be in line for more Triple A seasoning (he's only had 18 games at the level, and keeping him there for a few months could delay free agency by a year).

Last spring Bruce was drafted in the 27th round on average, so in a 12-team mixed league you could've waited til the reserve round or picked him up midseason.  It figures to be a similar situation for Snider, and he's not the double-digit steal threat Bruce was.  Snider is certainly a top keeper, a guy who could hit .300 with 30 HR in 2010.  But for '09, he seems like more of a 20 HR type with playing time questions.  Worth a flier, nothing more in non-keeper leagues.

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ZiPS Analysis

ZiPS projections are up for the Brewers, Cardinals, and Cubs.  A few possible sleepers for 2009:

• Angel Salome, C.  .277-11-51-48-2, but Jason Kendall has the starting job.
• Yovani Gallardo, SP.  3.73 ERA, 1.33 WHIP.  Could slip due to a lost '08.  I'm a bit disappointed by the WHIP projection.
• Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, and Manny Parra have definite upside for sleeper fantasy seasons.  Yes, even Braun (he could hit 50 HR).
• Ryan Ludwick, OF.  ZiPS is a believer, calling for 31 HR if Ludwick can reach 538 ABs again.
• Rick Ankiel, Ludwick, and Adam Wainwright are the upside picks. A sub-3.00 ERA for Wainwright, perhaps?  35 HR for Ankiel in his walk year?
• Geovany Soto, C.  Another big year projected: .294 AVG, 25 HR, 91 RBI.
• Tyler Colvin and Sean Marshall have a bit of upside - 20 HR is possible for Colvin (somehow given full playing time), and Marshall could find his way to a sub-4.00 ERA.

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Ryan Dempster Examined

Ryan Dempster, typically undrafted in mixed leagues, had a massive season in 2008.  He was ninth in baseball with a 2.96 ERA, and added a 1.21 WHIP, 17 wins, and 187 strikeouts.  Dempster had been mostly a reliever since 2003.  Let's take a closer look at his season.

2.96 ERA
1.21 WHIP
17 wins
15.7 expected wins
206.6 innings
6.26 innings per start
8.14 K/9
3.31 BB/9
7.58 H/9
.283 BABIP vs. .295 team BABIP
0.61 HR/9
7.6% HR per flyball rate
48.1% groundball rate

Trying to take a stab at manually projecting Dempster for next year, let's go with these rates: 7.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 8.3 H/9, 0.85 HR/9.  Basically I am just trying to be conservative, especially with his hit and home run rates. 

If I plug in those numbers I get something in the neighborhood of a 3.80 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  Kind of in the range of Gil Meche this year. You'd like to see your mixed league team as a whole post an ERA around 3.70, a WHIP around 1.25.  So guys like Dempster or Meche are mostly helping you in wins and strikeouts, though ERA can vary wildly.

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A Look At John Danks

Is White Sox lefty John Danks for real?  Let's attempt to figure it out.  The early returns:

4 starts
23.2 IP
5.92 IP/start
3.04 ERA
1.01 WHIP
6.08 K/9
2.66 BB/9
2.29 K/BB
6.46 H/9
.250 BABIP
0.00 HR/9
0.0% HR/flyball
48.5% groundball rate (up 13.7% from '07)

Many factors have come together for his hot start, which is comprised of three stellar outings and one bombing at the hands of the Twins. 

Danks' control wasn't horrible last year at 3.5 BB/9, but this is a nice improvement.  He matched his current walk rate in April, July, and August of last year.  It's hard to say if he can keep it up all year.

His .250 BABIP is off his team's .303 mark, but not ridiculously so.  Danks was at .317 last year, but he would've given up more than a hit per inning even adjusting for that.  Best case is probably 8.5 H/9 or so.

It's the home run rate that's truly unsustainable (obviously he will be homered upon at some point).  This was a huge problem for Danks in '07 and his home park didn't help.  The greatly increased groundball rate says he can be at least league average in this regard.

Qualitatively, we know that Danks has a new cutter this year.  In a Baseball America profile from '07, they rated his changeup and curve as above average and noted number two starter potential.  He is only 23 and has often been young for his league.  Maybe '07 was his adjustment period and he really has arrived.

I can see Danks posting a 3.90 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this year.  One consideration is that he was cut off at 139 innings last year and is unlikely to exceed 170 this year.  In a ten or twelve team mixed league Danks is worth using as one of your last starters.  I'm more interested to see what he can do with 200 innings in 2009.

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A Look At Johnny Cueto

New Reds manager Dusty Baker is quite impressed with 22 year-old righty Johnny Cueto, maybe even enough to put him in the team's rotation to begin the season.  Let's take a look at the diminutive flamethrower.

Last year Cueto pitched at High A, Double A, and Triple A.  He whiffed 170 in 161.3 innings across the three levels.  The Major League Equivalent of his work: a 3.41 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Projections?  A 4.75 ERA and 1.42 WHIP according to Baseball Prospectus.  CHONE: 5.03 and 1.52.  ZiPS: 4.97 and 1.38.  The computers say to avoid Cueto in mixed leagues.

The scouts love him - mid 90s heater, good slider and changeup, good makeup.  Keep an eye on this one.  My opinion of him leans towards the scouts rather than the computers. 

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Verlander!

23 year-old righthander Justin Verlander shut down the fearsome Texas lineup Saturday night, tossing seven scoreless innings while throwing just 89 pitches.  He whiffed seven, including Brad Wilkerson three times.  What's Verlander's outlook for the rest of the season?

I created a Top 20 Fantasy Rookies list back in November, and Verlander ranked 4th.  A little background from Baseball America:

The Padres passed over Verlander for the #1 pick overall, opting for Matt Bush.  Ouch!  He throws a mid-90s heater with a nasty curveball.  His changeup rates well too.  Verlander was a college pick, and breezed through the minors with a 1.29 ERA in 118 innings last year.  He made a couple of starts for the big club that summer, but they didn't go well.

He would've gotten a callup in September, but had been shut down earlier with a tired arm/shoulder. 

To get a better read on the situation, I posed a question to Will Carroll during a February chat:

tdierkes (Chicago, IL): Around how many innings can we expect out of Justin Verlander? I don't think he's ever topped 120 in a pro season.

Will Carroll: 130 last year, between three levels. He ended up tired last year, but not injured. Ideally, I'd like to see him between 150-170 but I wouldn't hate seeing 190 from him if the internal numbers look good.

Hence my projection of 165 innings this year.  Maybe 27-28 starts.  Seems like Will thinks he can get another 3-4 starts on top of that if everything feels good late in the season.

I was fairly modest with his K rate, going with 6.8 per nine.  That's still above average.  I see him having good control and doing a great job keeping the ball in the park.  My initial projected 0.65 HR/9 was a tad ambitious; I've moved it to 0.75 per nine.  Still would be fantastic.

Overall, I projected a 3.48 ERA and 1.24 WHIP for the kid.  He's a serious ROY contender and should win 10+ games for the Tigers.  Given the modest innings total, Verlander is about a $5-6 in a mixed league, maybe 50th overall. 

Verlander is obviously a great keeper league pick.  And the dollar value is deceiving - depending on your league, you can probably get a lot more than that out of his roster spot.  If you only account for DL trips, you could get screwed.  If he tires again late in the year he probably will not go on the DL.  But if you're in a typical league with a few bench spots, you can factor in another 40-50 innings of slightly above average pitching from another starter  if Verlander is shut down or skips a few starts.   

      

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Loney Nights At First Base

I'm noticed various outlets recommending Dodgers rookie James Loney as a good NL-only pickup while Nomar Garciaparra is out.  I'm not so sure.

It's true that Loney, a left-handed first baseman, will get most of the ABs against righthanders in April.  Maybe it's because I have never seen him play in person, but I can't understand why anyone would be high on him.  Last year in Double A Jacksonville, Loney hit .284/.357/.419 in 504 at-bats.  Granted, the Baseball Grounds of Jacksonville rates as one of the best pitchers' parks in the Southern League.  But just 11 HRs in 500+ Double A at-bats can't be explained away by park effects.

At least he'll hit for average in L.A., right?  Well, no.  As a player with a contact rate of about 83% and a walk rate of 10%, Loney looks like a .270 hitter at best for the time being.  And that's .270 if his minor league skills don't erode in the bigs.

Loney still hasn't hit his 22nd birthday, so he gets plenty of points in prospect rankings for holding his own at a young age.  Think Adrian Gonzalez circa 2003.  Loney has battled finger and wrist injuries in recent years.  His .438 spring average was nice, though he didn't homer in the 32 ABs.  He sounds like a good kid and he's a defensive whiz.  But in what kind of fantasy league can a no-hit rookie first baseman be an asset?   

(Watch, he hits .350 with 5 HR in April because of this post).

If you owned Nomar and you were strangely playing him at first base in a 12 team NL-only league with 5-deep benches, Loney might be the only guy out there who will actually get playing time.  So I guess that's the situation in which he has a little bit of value.   

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