Fantasy Baseball Projections

Projecting Gio Gonzalez

The Nationals clearly believe in Gio Gonzalez.  They paid a hefty price to acquire him from Oakland, and then locked him up through at least 2016.  Fantasy leaguers always pay extra attention to solid starters moving from the AL to the NL; what can we expect of Gio in 2012?

Gonzalez's vitals for the 2011 A's:

• 3.12 ERA, 3.78 SIERA
• 1.32 WHIP
• 8.8 K/9
• 4.1 BB/9
• 0.76 HR/9
• 47.5% groundball rate
• 7.8 H/9
• .287 BABIP vs. .289 for A's in general and .287 for Nationals

The walks are the obvious red flag.  If Gonzalez pushed that down to league average, around 3.1, his WHIP would go from 1.32 to 1.21, all else being equal.  With a little control, Gonzalez's WHIP would go from liability to asset, given how hard he's been to hit the last few years.  And I do expect him to continue to be difficult to hit.

Nationals GM Mike Rizzo discussed Gonzalez with reporters upon acquiring him in late December, saying, "We see his walks trending in the right direction, we see him having general command, and as he progresses into his career, he's going to improve on his command each and every year."  While it's true that Gonzalez has improved his walk rate each year, the progress has been minimal.  Tossing out the 34-inning 2008 sample, Gonzalez has gone from 5.11  in '09 to 4.13 in '10 to 4.05 in '11.  He spent all of 2010-11 in a big league rotation and his walk rate was virtually the same.  He allowed the most walks in the AL in 2011 and tied for third-most in 2010.

Gonzalez did not show improvement as the 2011 season wore on; here are his walk rates by month:

• April: 4.20
• May: 3.90
• June: 4.08
• July: 4.50
• August: 4.65
• September: 3.29

Sometimes though, as Rizzo suggested, the league switch does the trick.  Working in the AL East for the Blue Jays from 2004-06, Ted Lilly was a consistent 4+ BB/9 lefty.  Upon moving to the Cubs in the NL, his walk rate immediately dropped under 3.0 and stayed there, and lately has been closer to 2.0.  ESPN's Keith Law believes Gonzalez is likely to maintain some value in Washington, "while leaving the club frustrated that he's not better."

Baseball HQ projects a very mild improvement for Gonzalez's move to the NL, with a 4.0 BB/9.  That'd lead to a 1.35 WHIP, but they still call for a 3.37 ERA.  If you think Gio can manage 3.5 BB/9, then his WHIP would at least drop below 1.30.

Over at Mock Draft Central, Gonzalez's average draft position is 109.55, meaning he's going in the 10th round of a 12-team mixed league on average.  His main asset is strikeouts, but you can get those from Brandon Beachy, Anibal Sanchez, and perhaps Cory Luebke, all drafted after Gonzalez.  The trio lacks Gonzalez's control issues, but only Sanchez can be counted on for innings.  Matt Garza goes a few picks before Gonzalez.  I'd rather have Garza, but only if he starts the season with an NL club.

Follow us on Twitter @rotoauthority.

---

A Look At Danny Espinosa

We ranked the Nationals' Danny Espinosa 13th among second basemen recently, yet he's not being drafted inside the first 40 rounds.  Let's dive into the numbers on this potential sleeper.

Espinosa, a third-round pick in 2008, hit .268/.337/.464 in 542 plate appearances across Double and Triple-A in 2010 despite missing time with a hamstring injury.  He mashed 22 home runs and stole 25 bags, though he was caught 11 times.  He switched from shortstop to second base in August and got the call in September.  He played second base for the Nationals regularly that month, hitting .214/.277/.447 with six home runs and a couple of times caught stealing in 112 plate appearances. Espinosa had minor hand surgery in November but is expected to be fine for Spring Training.

Espinosa is penciled in as the Nationals' Opening Day second baseman for 2011, though Jerry Hairston Jr., Albert Gonzalez, and Alex Cora might be hanging around to step in if he falters.  Espinosa will probably bat toward the bottom of the order at least initially.

Baseball America says Espinosa projects as a "solid regular," a player with excellent bat speed and average foot speed.  They say he runs the bases well, though his caught stealing numbers don't back that up.  For him to be mixed league worthy in 2011, he needs to continue attempting steals at the pace he did in the minors (over 15% of the time once he reached first base).

Projection systems spit out something like .240-20-70-80-20 if he is to get 550 ABs.  In an MLB.com chat, Espinosa named his personal goals: 

I want to go out there and play every day. Personally, I want to play every single day and hit for a solid average. That's my biggest thing. I want to hit for a solid average and have a high on-base percentage.      

Obviously a strikeout-prone player can not simply will himself to a good batting average.  But the power/speed combo makes Espinosa a top 15 second baseman even with a .240 average.  If you can take the hit in that category, he's a good late-round pick as for your MI slot.  Espinosa is not alone as a low-AVG power/speed second baseman; the Rays' Sean Rodriguez provides a similar package but with more big league experience.

---

Players To Watch: Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles players we'll be keeping an eye on for mixed leagues in 2011...

• Nick Markakis, OF.  Drafted in the fifth round on average before the 2010 season, Markakis should slip several rounds in 2011 after his power continued to fade.  He batted third 64% of the time but drove in only 60 runs.  He might be able to bounce back to his 20 home run, 100 RBI ways.
• Adam Jones, OF.  He's seemingly settled into the 20 home run, 10 steal range, less than was expected of him.  He did have eight home runs in June.  Only 25, Jones' breakout could still be in the offing.
• Luke Scott, DH.  Scott played 19 games at first base and 14 in the outfield, so he may only qualify at DH if your league requires 20 games.  His power has risen for three straight seasons and he slugged over .600 in three separate months this year.  Maybe he takes one more jump up to 30 home runs.
• Matt Wieters, C.  Wieters' sophomore season did not bring improvement.  An eighth rounder before the season, he'll be later than the tenth this time.  I'm reaching here, but it's mildly interesting that Wieters slugged .416 over the season's final three months.  Hmm...actually, that's not interesting.  Nick Hundley can do that.  I still like Wieters if he becomes unpopular enough in drafts.
• Brian Roberts, 2B.  He won't go in the fourth round this time, as he was plagued by back pain all season.  He's 33 now and these things usually don't just go away, but if he slips to the ninth or tenth consider him.
• Jeremy Guthrie, SP.  His 3.83 ERA and 1.16 WHIP screams fluke.  In the unlikely event he's traded to an NL club, he might get on my radar.
• Brian Matusz, SP.  He should be a popular sleeper again after posting a 4.30 ERA and matching SIERA.  Over the last two months: 2.18 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9 in 62 innings.
• Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, SP.  Highly regarded, but disappointing in the bigs this year.  Both had promising Triple A numbers, especially Tillman, but I'd probably avoid them.
• David Hernandez, RP.  As a reliever this year: 3.16 ERA, 10.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.97 HR/9 in 37 innings.  Maybe Buck Showalter won't designate a closer right away, but Hernandez should be in the mix.  I certainly like him more than Alfredo Simon.  If Koji Uehara doesn't return and the O's don't sign a veteran, speculate on Hernandez.
• Mike Gonzalez, RP.  He may get first dibs at closing due to his salary, though maybe Showalter won't stand for that.  He tossed 22.6 innings from July forward, posting a 2.78 ERA, 11.1 K/9, and 4.0 BB/9.  He missed a bunch of time earlier with shoulder problems.
• Zach Britton, SP.  Well-regarded prospect could help the Orioles, but probably not your fantasy team as a rookie.

---

The Potential Of Jay Bruce

Heading into the season Reds right fielder Jay Bruce was being drafted in the 11th round on average.  We had him down for .269-32-91-85-8 in 560 ABs.  His actual line: .281-25-70-80-5 in 509 ABs.  He missed some time in September with an abdomen injury, and also was benched against tough lefties earlier in the season.  Projected to 560 ABs he would've hit .281-28-77-88-6, pretty close to our projection aside from RBIs.

Bruce fell a bit short of the breakout some fantasy touts predicted or hoped for, but his age 23 season was definitely his best yet.  He provided excellent 11th-round value.  In 2011 I think people will be salivating on draft day, given Bruce's obvious talent.  He could be drafted as early as the fifth round.  Will he be worth that level of speculation?

The first thing to note is that Bruce probably won't be benched much next year, having proven his ability to hit lefties.  Hit AB totals in May, June, and July suggest he'd be around 590 in a healthy, full season.  Right there you're looking at 30 home runs without any growth.

Bruce's .281 batting average may not be sustainable; Baseball HQ's xBA stat had him at .260.  His 26.7% strikeout rate was on the high side, 25th in baseball among those with 400+ PAs.

We mentioned the 30 home run potential.  This year 15 of Bruce's home runs came in his final 133 ABs.  That's a ridiculous rate, but it was only two months.  It's enough to hint that Bruce could be a 40 home run player in 2011 though.

In the RBI department keep in mind he spent 48% of his plate appearances in the #6 spot in the lineup and 40% in the #5 spot.  Assuming the Reds don't bring in a big name to play left field, I could see Bruce find more of a permanent home at #5 behind Joey Votto and Scott Rolen.  That means more RBIs.

Bruce attempted nine steals and found success on only five.  Compared to how many times he was on first base, he really didn't attempt many steals.  He may get a few extra swipes by improving his success rate, but he's not a 10 steal guy unless something changes.  Sometimes a player just decides to run more, but don't count on steals from Bruce.

Entirely using gut feel, I'd put Bruce down for something like .270-35-100-90-5 next year.  Not too many players hit 35 homers these days, and the steals help.  Even without a massive breakout type campaign, Bruce's power numbers should make him a top 10 fantasy outfielder in the vein of Vladimir Guerrero or Corey Hart this year.  I'm intrigued enough to say a fifth or sixth round selection is justified.

---

Experts Predict Jose Bautista's 2011 Home Run Total

Yesterday Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLB Trade Rumors dove into Jose Bautista's impending raise with the help of an arbitration expert.  The article was fascinating, but fantasy baseball players are more concerned with how much of Bautista's 54 home run performance will carry over in 2011.  I assembled a panel of legendary journalists and asked them to predict his home run total for next year.  Their answers:

• Jerry Crasnick of ESPN: 36
• Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated: 35
• Jordan Bastian of MLB.com: 35
• Jeff Passan of Yahoo: 34
• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs: 34
• Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports: 33
• Buster Olney of ESPN: 31
• Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports: 29
• Peter Gammons of MLB Network: 29
• Ken Davidoff of Newsday: 27

That comes to an average of 32.3 home runs for Bautista next year, with a range of nine between the highest and lowest predictions.  Fantasy players will likely view Bautista as a third baseman rather than an outfielder. 

I can't help but wonder if Bautista will be next year's Mark Reynolds.  Not because I expect him to follow up his huge year with a .198 average and 211 strikeouts, but because like Reynolds, Bautista may be drafted inside the first three rounds in March of 2011 and that's probably too early.  Reynolds was actually drafted 20th on average before the 2010 season.  Be sure to exercise caution on Bautista in fantasy drafts, with a panel of ten experts predicting a dropoff of more than 20 home runs.  His RBI total will come down as well.

---

Can David Wright Bounce Back?

Mets third baseman David Wright will most likely be drafted between the 12th and 18th pick in your 2010 fantasy league.  If you have a pick or two in that range, your decision whether to draft him could affect your team's chances greatly.  In 2009 drafts Wright seemed like a safe choice at 3rd overall, yet his .307-10-72-88-27 line had some labeling him a bust at year's end.

Was Wright truly a bust?  According to ESPN's Player Rater he ranked 7th among third basemen and 64 among all players.  Obviously he was a letdown in the power categories, but if you blame this pick for losing your league you're just making excuses. 

More importantly, what can we expect from Wright in 2010?  You may recall that Wright was struck in the head by a Matt Cain fastball on August 15th, an injury that he admitted remained in the back of his head a month later.  Wright told Newsday's Anthony Rieber, "You see a ball that kind of comes up and in, it makes you flinch a little more than normal."  The symptoms from that injury caused Wright to dip to 535 ABs in '09, so we'll assume he jumps back to his typical 600.  As for the mental aspect, we can only guess whether the time off will straighten him out.  Wright had his worst month of the season after returning from the beaning in September.

Projection systems don't know about the mental side of the Cain beaning.  They also can't tell us whether moving to Citi Field got into Wright's head.  Assuming 600 ABs, here are three projected lines:

• Baseball HQ: .295-20-96-103-23
• Bill James:  .302-23-99-100-24
• CHONE: .305-24-104-102-21

Very similar results...they're all just penalizing him for '09 by predicting fewer than 25 HRs.  But more simply, Wright averaged 29 HRs in the four seasons prior.  A return to 30 HR is entirely within reach for the 27-year-old.  Any logical forecaster is going to say Wright's power will return and his strikeouts will come back down in 2010.

On the other hand, Citi Field isn't going anywhere.  Greg Rybarczyk of Hit Tracker Online has suggested Wright lost nine home runs to the new park in 2009.  If he'd hit 19 bombs and driven in 85, it would've been easier to write off '09 as a blip.

We've learned that Wright is likely to bounce back to some extent, though he's riskier than ever.  In my tentative batter rankings, Wright is 17th.  I am not one to spring for a pitcher in the first few rounds, so my question is how many hitters I'd rather take than Wright who will not be there for a subsequent pick.  Though my early rankings have 16 hitters above Wright, Holliday, Reyes, and McCann may be available with your following pick.  There are nine players - Pujols, Hanley, Braun, A-Rod, Utley, Kemp, Howard, Cabrera, and Fielder - I'd have to take before Wright.  Beyond that, I'm not convinced that Teixeira, Longoria, Lincecum, Mauer, Kinsler, and Crawford need to go before Wright.

There's my current debate - Teixeira, Longoria, Lincecum, Mauer, Crawford, and Kinsler vs. Wright.  One point in Wright's favor is that he's projected to give balance - above-average contributions in all five categories.  Drafting exactly 12th (in a 12-team league) might make the decision easier, as you could take Wright and one of the six back-to-back.

---

2009 Fantasy Baseball Projections

Click here to download our 2009 fantasy baseball projections, with dollar values for a 12 team 5x5 mixed league.  The dollar values reflect 23-man active rosters: C, C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, DH, and 9 pitchers.  The categories used are AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB, ERA, WHIP, W, SV, and K. 

It's easy to filter by position within this spreadsheet.  If you want to see all the 1Bs with 20 games played, click the dropdown next to 1B, go to Custom..., and change it to greater than or equal to 20.  Boom, your first base rankings.  If you want to see all the MIs, hit the MI dropdown and go to y.

I suggest using these or any other projections as a guide, tweaking the numbers to fit your own beliefs.  I tinker with these often, and feedback on individual players is welcome.

I used Art McGee's SGP system for the dollar values.  Go buy his book.

---

Everybody Loves Wieters

You'll be hard-pressed to find a baseball analyst who doesn't love Baltimore catching prospect Matt Wieters.  Statheads talk about his historically awesome 2008, while scouts rave as well.

Orioles beat writer Jeff Zrebiec talked to Eric Stashin about Wieters' likely call-up date:

It’s hard to say when he’ll be recalled and that probably depends on how he’s performing against Triple-A pitching. If he’s dominating it like he did in Single and Double-A, I think you’ll probably see him make his big league debut in mid to late May.

If Wieters debuts in mid-May, I'd put him around 375 big league ABs for the season, maybe a bit less since Gregg Zaun is pretty solid.  In 375 ABs Wieters should be good for .296-17-63-58-2, a $12.84 value.

To account for this, drafters are taking Wieters in the 11th round, a bit after Ryan Doumit.  The good thing is that you'll have some kind of warm body taking ABs at catcher for the first 45 days of the season if Wieters is in the minors.  Let's say this guy is Rod Barajas, who is about replacement level in a 12-team, two catcher mixed league.  Adding in 100 ABs of Barajas I get this composite:

.285-21-76-70-2 in 475 ABs, worth $17.11.  Wieters/Barajas is the fourth-ranked catcher, behind only the big three of McCann, Martin, and Mauer.  But, you only have to use a 10th or 11th round pick to get this value.

---

Joba Chamberlain's 2009 Innings

Recently a reader pointed out a bold projection from Ron Shandler and company at Baseball HQ: 199 innings for Joba Chamberlain in 2009.  Most forecasters agree that Joba's ERA, WHIP, and K/9 will be very strong in '09, but with that innings total you'd have to consider him a top five fantasy starter.  Mock drafters are taking Chamberlain in the 9th round on average, indicating concern that his innings will be limited by the Yankees, his health, or a midseason move to the 'pen.

I asked eleven of my favorite baseball writers to predict Chamberlain's 2009 regular season Major League innings total.  Here are the results:

• Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus: 175
• Peter Abraham, The Lohud Journal: 160
• Ken Rosenthal, FOX Sports: 155
• Peter Gammons, ESPN: 145
• Joe Pawlikowski, River Ave. Blues: 142
• Jerry Crasnick, ESPN: 142
• Ken Davidoff, Newsday: 141.6
• Rick Wilton, Baseball Injury Report: 140
• Rob Neyer, ESPN: 137.6
• Keith Law, ESPN: 125
• Jon Heyman, SI: 109

The average comes to 142.9 innings.  If Joba pitches 143 innings, I'd rank him 18th among fantasy starters - after Cliff Lee but before Rich Harden.  It's quite conceivable that Chamberlain could have more fantasy value (in just 143 innings) than John Lackey, Felix Hernandez, Scott Kazmir, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, who are all being drafted before him.

As we mentioned in the Max Scherzer post, Chamberlain will probably pitch well if he's healthy and hit the disabled list otherwise.  If he's on the DL, you can take the best available waiver wire arm.   143 innings from Joba plus 50 from the waiver wire probably equals a top ten starter.  Scherzer, Harden, and Randy Johnson may be underrated in a similar fashion.

---

Stephen Drew Examined

Diamondbacks shortstop Stephen Drew is a popular undervalued/sleeper pick this year.  He's being drafted sixth among shortstops, typically in the 8th round.  Drew, 26 in March, posted a fantasy line of .291-21-67-91-3 in 611 ABs last year.  What's more, his second half production, if replicated over 600 ABs, would come to .326-20-76-96-2 (a $16 value).

If Drew does manage to replicate his second half work over a full season, it'd be hard to argue that he'd be the fourth-ranked fantasy shortstop.

I have a safer projection for Drew: .277-18-72-80-4 in 565 ABs.  This line has him ranked 13th at the position, worth less than $4.

If you think Drew is more capable of something like .290-20-75-85-5, then he is creeping into Michael Young/Derek Jeter value.  Drew is right around his peak age, so there is something to be said for taking the upside guy over these two declining veterans (or an injury risk, Rafael Furcal).  I would like to see Drew run more.  Otherwise I remain unconvinced that I can't get similar production from Miguel Tejada,  Jhonny Peralta, Troy Tulowitzki, and J.J. Hardy later in the draft.

I should add that Alexei Ramirez slots in as my fourth-ranked SS if his 16 games played there in 2008 cuts it for your league.  Certainly can't go wrong with him at 2B though.

If you're picking top four, you can probably get Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez.  If you have the fifth through ninth pick, you can take Jimmy Rollins.  Those three are so far above the other shortstops that I make every effort to get one.  Beyond that trio you have to settle for a shortstop that is flawed in some way.

---

Search Roto Authority

Custom Search

Roto Authority Mailing List

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Roto Authority Features

Recent Posts

Monthly Archives