Fantasy Baseball Advice

Pick Up Dan Johnson

I see Dan Johnson is one of the most popular drops this week. All it takes is an 0 for 12, apparently.  He's still getting the vast majority of starts at first base, including most against southpaws. 

This is a player who can hit .300 with 25+ HR in 500+ ABs.  In other words, he's a lot like Chris Shelton.  Ken Macha is not going to give up on him after four starts, and neither should you.  I recommend pulling a Buy Low here.  Johnson can be a $15 mixed league player; he doesn't belong on the waiver wire.   

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A Note On Chris Shelton

As much as I like Chris Shelton, it is important to observe the opposing pitcher for his league-leading five home runs.

Scott Elarton (2)
R.A. Dickey (2)
John Koronka (1)

Three of the five blasts came at Ameriquest against pitchers who do not belong in the Major Leagues.  I think I went deep off Dickey's 65mph knuckler last night.  And Elarton had the fifth worst HR/9 in baseball last year.

So while I respect and admire the torrid start, keep in mind that Shelton has to face the Cleveland, Chicago, and Minnesota pitching staffs quite a bit.  He's been feasting on some of the worst pitchers in the game so far.

On the docket in the near future:  Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Freddy Garcia, Jose Contreras, and Jon Garland.  Expect him to slap Garcia around a bit, at the least.   

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A Few Thoughts On Bruce Chen

I noticed this comment by ESPN's Tristan Cockcroft today in a chat:

"I can't believe no one is talking more about Bruce Chen, especially with Mazzone now in Baltimore. Everyone seems to focus on Daniel Cabrera and Erik Bedard as the breakout candidates, but Chen has pitched pretty well for the Orioles of late. I think he's a lot better candidate to repeat his 2005 totals than people think; it's not like he lacks the talent to be a successful pitcher. Plus, he hasn't been picked in a single one of my mixed drafts to this point. I'd take a flier on him."

Interesting case, Bruce Chen.  He surprised many with a career high 13 wins in 2005.  It was his age 28 season, and he also posted a 3.83 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.  His strikeout rate was league average, and 197 innings was a career high.

Chen gives up a lot of home runs, but he's a solid back of the rotation type.  I project him at 11 wins with a 4.08 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this year.  PECOTA calls for 4.24 and 1.32.  This ain't bad, but Chen is waiver wire material in mixed leagues.  I project his value at $1.58.  Still, I'd take him over guys like Jarrod Washburn and Mike Mussina.

Bedard doesn't project a whole lot better, but he's gotten a lot more press.  I have Cabrera valued over $7, however.  He could rack up 175 Ks and an ERA around 3.50.

Still, if you're searching for boring back-rotation guys, why not take the safe money?  I think Paul Byrd, Greg Maddux, and Jon Lieber will be better than any of the previously mentioned starters and have better health/performance track records.  Control pitchers don't get your blood pumping, but you should take these guys over Cabrera.

Liebs especially could surprise some folks.  220 innings from him means 150 Ks, and his WHIP is always near 1.20.  He could win 15-16 games in 2006.  He posted a 3.28 ERA after the break in '05, and with just a couple less HRs could post a 3.75 ERA in '06.  Underrated fantasy starter. 

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Fantasy Baseball Advice: Beckett, Wood, Jenks

July is a busy time for baseball, with new opportunities opening up and teams realizing their role as buyer or seller.  The Roto Authority will help clear up all of the latest MLB trade rumors and manager comments.

Josh Beckett came back last night with a vengeance.  Many comparisons are drawn between Beckett and Kerry Wood, but Wood has been subject of more detrimental injuries involving his shoulder and elbow.  Beckett's main problem is blisters, so continue gambling on him and one day the blister problem will be overcome.  Wood is still an excellent but fragile pitcher, but you're likely to overpay for him in a trade so wait and see his auction price for this spring.      

Edwin Encarnacion is only 22, but the Joe Randa trade has opened up a full-time job for the rookie.  Encarnacion followed up a solid 2004 in AA with an equally impressive performance with Louisville.  He was given 19 part-time at-bats with the Reds earlier this year, a nice example of how not to bring all your 22 year-old prospect.  But the Reds finally seem to have gotten it right, and Encarnacion makes a solid pickup if you have an eye toward 2006.  He could be outhitting Randa in '06 and at the Eric Chavez level in 2007.

Bobby Jenks is the latest name to know in baseball's ever-changing rotation of fringe closers.  Jenks can throw over 100 mph on the radar gun, but is subject to bouts of wildness.  Why is he relevant in fantasy baseball?  Because Ozzie Guillen is crazy enough to use him at closer.  Managers love hard throwers, so Jenks is being thrown into the mix with Cliff Politte and Damaso Marte if Dustin Hermanson's back troubles continue.  Don't ignore the possibility that Hermanson stays healthy but simply stops being effective.  Politte is the man you want from the replacement trio, but Marte has picked up saves in the past and Ozzie Guillen can be unpredictable.  Be mindful of Jenks and Ozzie's whims.

A.J. Burnett's status is still up in the air, but the Red Sox and the White Sox seem to be the most likely destinations.  The implications for Burnett have been discussed in previous posts but keep an eye on Baltimore.  The O's won't be sitting still this July.  Adding Phil Nevin gives his fantasy value a small boost, but the Roto Authority would be surprised to see the deadline pass without the Os adding a pitcher (Kip Wells, Jeff Weaver, or Mark Redman?)

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Fantasy Baseball Advice: Schilling, Ponson, Smoltz

Here is your daily dose of fantasy baseball advice. Today we'll try to cover all the pertinent fantasy baseball topics briefly.  An excellent source for up-to-date fantasy baseball news is Roto World.  For cutting edge insight into that news, park your browser right here at The Roto Authority. 

The latest MLB trade rumor to emerge is Sidney Ponson to the Devil Rays or Padres.  No matter where Ponson may go, don't pick him up.  He's been terrible since the beginning of 2004.  Don't roll the dice on him, even if he pitches in pitcher-friendly Petco.  A Ponson deal involving Phil Nevin would help Nevin's value.  More RBI opportunities, more home runs playing for the O's.  Richard Hidalgo is in the midst of one of his patented hot streaks right now, but he can't go to a better hitting environment than Texas.  Don't play with the fire that is his batting average.

Curt Schilling is already talking about returning to the starting rotation for the Boston Red Sox.  Apparently the Sox have seen the error of their ways.  The move, of course, increases Schilling's value quite a bit.  Considering his pre-season price, expect Schilling's owner to stick with him no matter what his role.  The ripple effect is that the saves opportunities truly will fall to Mike Timlin.  He's a great pickup, but comes with the caveat that the Red Sox have been linked to every reliever in baseball in trade talks.  Eddie Guardado, Billy Wagner, J.C. Romero, or Brian Fuentes could be closing in Boston next Sunday.

Al Leiter is still spent, and his one good start against Boston was clearly a mirage.  Let's hope you weren't delirious enough to pick him up in the first place.

A John Smoltz to the Yankees rumor has surfaced.  As the article says, don't buy into this one.  Smoltz loves Atlanta and has had plenty of opportunities to leave but has chosen to stay.  Besides, Atlanta is in a pennant race and Smoltz is a key to their success.

John Lackey makes a decent pickup at this point.  His ratio may be poor, but he can win games and rack up Ks.

We still have to advise against Chris Young.  Next year he may make a decent 5th starter for you, but he plays in the American League Coors.  Too dangerous for fantasy baseball.

Dustin Hermanson was hit hard last night.  Hermanson is a major candidate for a regression in the second half - his peripheral numbers simply do not support his ERA.  Few strikeouts, plenty of walks, low batting average on balls in play.  These qualities spell out major luck being involved in the 1.50 ERA.  If he strings together a few saves, ship him off for any warm body.  The ramifications of Billy Wagner entering the picture are discussed here. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen situation is a mess.  Don't be the one trying to sort between Tim Worrell, Brian Bruney, Brandon Lyon, Jose Valverde, and maybe Shingo Takatsu.  Just find saves elsewhere.

Dontrelle Willis has strung together three awful starts in a row.  As we've said in this space, he'll be a decent pitcher by year's end but dont trade him away when his value is at a season-low.

         

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