Colorado Rockies

Transaction Analysis: Guthrie, Hammel, Lindstrom

Jeremy Guthrie escaped the AL East this week and rumors swirl that A.J. Burnett may join him in the National League. It isn't often that a trade to the Colorado inflates a pitcher's fantasy value, but that's exactly the situation that Guthrie is in. Since he wasn't traded for prospects, both pitchers received by the Orioles are in position to find their way onto fantasy rosters. We'll take a look at all three, one by one.

Jeremy Guthrie

Guthrie may be going mile-high, but Coors Field isn't quite the terror it was in the 1990s. Homers are likely to be a problem, given Guthrie's 41% career flyball rate, but Camden Yards wasn't a great place for him either, and the difference may not be that drastic. Though he'll be going to the world's most feared hitter's park (and owner of second place on ESPN's park factor list) he'll be staying away from Boston, Toronto, and New York (the third, fourth, and sixth-most hitter friendly parks in baseball) on the road, replacing them with trips to San Franciso, San Diego, and Los Angeles, so the park change isn't as bad as it sounds.

Of course, that isn't counting the hitters themselves. Pitching for Baltimore is more than pitching for a bad team, it's facing four of baseball's toughest offenses night after night. The general quality difference between the AL and the NL should help, too. Overall, the change in environment should be a wash at the worst for Guthrie's rate stats and strikouts, and could well give them a boost.

The biggest thing this trade has going for Guthrie and his potential owners, though, is in the wins category. The Rockies weren't exactly a great team last year, but they were a lot better than the Orioles and finished second in the NL in runs scored (some of that might have been the park...). As a team that underperformed its pythagorean record and plays in a competitive division, the Rockies make sense as a bounceback team; it's easy to imagine improvement showing up in Guthrie's wins statistic.

Finally, pitching for the Rockies means you can maximize Guthrie's return by playing him when he pitches on the road and sitting him on the bench for home games. It's especially easy in daily leagues, though the strategy can be managed in weekly leagues, too. With an ADP of 350.53 (and a draft percentage of under two!), Guthrie is being drafted behind the likes of Bruce Chen and the shell of John Lackey. He won't make or break any fantasy leagues, but he deserves a lot more consideration than he's getting.

Jason Hammel

Hammel once showed enough promise to make him an off-again, on-again member of my primary fantasy rotation last year. I'm hoping not to make that mistake again, though the trade to Baltimore might give him what he needed: weaker competition for a rotation spot. With an abysmal 4.97 K/9, the 2011 Hammel didn't belong on anyone's fantasy roster. Two years ago was a different story, though, as he posted a strikeout rate over seven and a FIP of 3.70. The Orioles will have no choice but to give Hammel a long look, giving you plenty of time to see if the strikeouts come back. If they do, he could be a useful starter again. If not, stay away. Far away.

Matt Lindstrom

The nature of Lindstrom's fantasy value is simple and binary: he either closes for the Orioles or he doesn't. As of now, Jim Johnson is the favorite for the ninth-inning job, but it's one of the least secure in baseball. Spring Training will likely be an open audition, in fact, even if it isn't one in name. Importantly, Johnson is new to the job, and Matt Lindstrom is a Proven Closer (with partial seasons for two different teams) who Throws Hard (he averages about 96 mph on his fastball). Sure, you'd think the Orioles had learned their lesson with Kevin Gregg, but some teams never learn.

Finally, for those of you watching closers and setup men, note that this probably makes Rex Brothers next in line for Colorado's closer job should Rafael Betancourt fail or get hurt.

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Position Battles: Rockies Second Base

The Rockies were reportedly in talks with the Rangers to acquire Michael Young on two different occasions this offseason but the teams couldn't agree on a deal. Had the Rockies acquired him, the 34 year-old would've been the starting second baseman. The talks appear to have cooled off, although they can always be rekindled over the next few weeks. For now, the Rockies must decide between five players for the everyday job. I'll be keeping a close eye on this competition, along with over 50 other position battles that I've identified, over at MLBDepthCharts.com. 

Jose Lopez vs Eric Young, Jr. vs Chris Nelson vs Jonathan Herrera vs Ty Wigginton

Tale of the Tape

Lopez: 27 years old, $3.6MM salary 2010 stats: .239 BA, 10 HR, 58 RBI, 29 2B, 23 BB, 66 K, 3 SB in 593 ABs 2011 Outlook: Favorite to win starting job

Acquired from Seattle in early December, Lopez will be looking to get his career back on track after a terrible 2010 season in which he set career lows in OBP (.270) and SLG (.339). During the 2008-09 seasons, he averaged 21 HRs, 93 RBIs, and 42 doubles as the Mariners' starting second baseman before he was moved to third base prior to last season. A move back to second base and a move into Coors Field sounds like a pretty good prescription for whatever the problem was. 

Young: 25 years old, est. $425K salary 2010 stats: .244 BA, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 5 2B, 3B, 17 BB, 32 K, 17 SB in 172 ABs 2011 Outlook: Underdog to win starting job, more likely to serve as utility man (2B/OF) on big league bench or play regularly in Triple-A

The switch-hitter has the ability to wreak havoc on the base paths, stealing as many as 87 bases in a season while in the minors. In limited big league action, however, he hasn't shown an ability to reach base often enough to take advantage of his speed. He's also not a great defender and has spent some time in the outfield during the past few seasons. If he can provide average defense at second base and reach base at a clip a bit closer to his career minor league .382 OBP rather than his .308 big league OBP, he could be a great weapon to have at the top of the Rockies' lineup. 

Nelson: 25 years old, est. $414K salary 2010 stats: .313 BA, 12 HR, 55 RBI, 15 2B, 3 3B, 29 BB, 53 K, 7 SB in 319 ABs (AAA) 2011 Outlook: Underdog to win starting job, more likely to play regularly in Triple-A

The former first round pick is a bit of a dark-horse candidate but he might be the most well-rounded player on this list. Primarily a shortstop throughout his career, he played 27 games at second base and 11 games at third base in what turned out to be a breakthrough 2010 season that put him back on the Rockies' radar after two injury-plagued seasons. Prior to the '08 season, Baseball America ranked him as the #7 prospect in the organization and compared him to Gary Sheffield because of his excellent bat speed and rated his speed and arm as plus tools. If he can still flash those abilities and show that he's capable of playing a solid second base, he could make this a very interesting competition. 

Herrera: 26 years old, est. $425K salary 2010 stats: .284 BA, HR, 21 RBI, 6 2B, 2 3B, 25 BB, 36 K, 2 SB in 222 ABs 2011 Outlook: Long shot to win starting job, more likely to win bench spot as backup at 2B, SS, and 3B

Despite starting 47 games at second base last season and posting a .352 OBP, Herrera simply does not have the power or speed that is going to make him stand out in this group. He is a very good defender, though, and his ability to play shortstop makes him the leading candidate to backup Troy Tulowitzki and serve as a late-inning defensive replacement for Lopez or Young, if they were to win the starting second base job.

Wigginton: 33 years old, $4MM salary 2010 stats: .248 BA, 22 HR, 76 RBI, 29 2B, 50 BB, 116 K 2011 Outlook: Long shot to win starting job, more likely to serve as backup at 1B, 2B, and 3B

There's no mistaking Wigginton can provide 20+ home runs. He's done it in four of the last five seasons. He's just not going to do it as an everyday second baseman. His primary role will be to back up Todd Helton at first base and Ian Stewart at third base. Whether he gets more than an occasional start at second base will have more to do with how the others are playing. Sticking him out there on a regular basis is an unlikely scenario unless the others aren't producing or injuries factor into the equation. Look for him to bounce around the infield and get 350-450 ABs. 

Final Word

Lopez is capable of playing 1B, 2B, and 3B, but he wasn't acquired with that role in mind for him. That's the role Wigginton is likely to fill. The Rockies are counting on Lopez bouncing back and solidifying the position while the others (Young, Nelson, Herrera) battle for the last spot on the bench. But Lopez rebounding is no sure thing, especially considering how bad he was last season. They wouldn't be interested in Michael Young if that was the case. Still, I expect Lopez to do enough to win the job although Nelson and Young are talented prospects that are capable of making some noise in Spring Training. Don't count either one of them out. 

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Where Will CarGo Be Drafted?

Carlos Gonzalez had a massive breakout fantasy season in 2010, with a .336 average, 34 home runs, 117 RBIs, 111 runs, and 26 steals.  Rest assured he won't be drafted 123rd on average this time around.  It's certainly not mock draft time, but where wil CarGo go?

Matt Kemp provides a strong fantasy comparable for Gonzalez.  Kemp, coming off a .297-26-101-97-34 season, was drafted eighth on average in March.  Evan Longoria, coming off a .281-33-113-100-9 season, went tenth.  I have a feeling CarGo's average draft position will be even earlier than Kemp's.  Kemp, by the way, had an ADP range of 4 to 13.

If you're the average fantasy player, you still have to take Albert Pujols first next year.  Sure, Gonzalez provided more value in 2010, but Pujols was second and has been a fantasy monster for a decade.  Hanley Ramirez, the typical second overall pick, slipped this year to .300-21-76-92-32.  Some owners will look at those numbers and decide they can't give Hanley the position-based boost and take him second.   Still, on average, it seems like Ramirez's history would help him top CarGo ever so slightly.  It's not as if Hanley had a bad year.

Gonzalez going third overall on average would not surprise me.  Last year's early first round picks such as Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, and Ryan Braun had down years by their standards.  Fantasy players have short memories.  One possibility is that someone who had a huge 2010 vaults into the mix.  The contenders are Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, and Josh Hamilton.  But even those players didn't have a fantasy season like Gonzalez did, so I think he snags that third spot.

While we're on the topic, are there any red flags with CarGo?  It's always risky to take someone with a short history of fantasy dominance with a super-early pick.  I thought Kemp was a first-rounder this year, and he was a bust.  One concern touts will point to with Gonzalez is his work away from Coors: .289/.322/.453 with 8 home runs and 41 RBIs in 287 ABs.  That's a glimpse at his worst case scenario, a line I kind of expected from him heading into 2010 - .290-15-80 or so.  But even then, he swiped 16 bags on the road, so you still would have had a tidy profit.  I don't see the point in worrying about the home/road split.  He's not leaving Coors, and he's still useful on the road.

It's unlikely Gonzalez has a healthy, disappointing season like Kemp did.  I'm more concerned that he'll miss significant time due to injury.  Here's his history:

• March 2008: Missed about 17 days due to a strained hamstring.
• April 2008: Jammed thumb.
• May 2008: Missed a week with a sprained ankle.
• July 2008: Missed three days with a hamstring injury.
• March 2009: Rib cage injury.
• August 2009: Steak knife injury, missed a few days.
• September 2009: Missed a few games with a hamstring injury.
• March 2010: Quad strain.
• April 2010: Missed three days with a hamstring injury, almost went on DL.
• May 2010: Missed a few days with a sore wrist.
• June 2010: Missed a few days due to a bruised knee.
• July 2010: Missed a few days with a bruised finger.
• August 2010: Missed a few days with a knee injury after crashing into the outfield wall.
• September 2010: Tendinitis in wrist and thumb due to an August 30th foul ball injury.

Obviously I was happy to own CarGo this year in a couple of leagues, but it seemed like he was always day-to-day with something.  But you'd leave him in your lineup and he'd go 4 for 6 with two home runs.  What does this mean - he's injury-prone but plays through it without much effect?  That he's more upfront than most players about standard injuries, so they're reported more?  The injury history is odd but not particularly scary, so we shouldn't downgrade him for it.

Bottom line: if you want CarGo, plan on taking him second or third most likely.  Whether he's worth it might be a separate post, but I think so.  Even if you knock him down to .300-25-100-100-20, that justifies the draft spot.

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Corpas Vs. Buchholz

According to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post, Rockies closer Brian Fuentes is likely to be traded this month.  Fantasy owners are desperate to determine whether Taylor Buchholz or Manny Corpas would get first crack at the closer job.

Renck explains:

O'Dowd made it clear Corpas would be given another shot to close before Buchholz. Buchholz has developed into a solid setup man, but the Rockies don't want to push him too quickly — he began the year as a secondary seventh-inning guy — and risk stunting his growth.

So, that's what the Rockies are thinking.  If you have to choose between Corpas and Buchholz for saves, take Corpas despite his inferior numbers.  Corpas at least strung together nine scoreless appearances until last night.  You have to wonder how long his leash will be though.

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A Look At Chris Iannetta

Rockies catcher Chris Iannetta was considered a nice sleeper heading into the 2007 season.  While he did draw quite a few walks, his '07 performance was a fantasy disappointment.  The Rockies were also disillusioned, as they signed Yorvit Torrealba to a two-year deal.

It often happens that a sleeper breaks out one year later than we'd expected.  Iannetta is off to a blazing start, though it's only been 58 ABs.  Iannetta has become the starter, though, so I'll assume he plays in another 95 games and ends up with 375 ABs.

Using only his '08 performance, we'd look for a .328-19-91-52-0 line from Iannetta in those 375 ABs.  That'd be worth $21 and make him a top five catcher.  Obviously Iannetta is a bit over his head.

Coming into this season I had him at .268-11-50-52-1 if he were to get 375 ABs.  That'd be worth $5.30, more than Jason Varitek or Mike Napoli.  If Iannetta simply plays to my projection from here on out, he'll finish at .277-13-56-52-1, a performance worth roughly $8.  This puts him in the range of Bengie Molina, Carlos Ruiz, A.J. Pierzynski, and Ivan Rodriguez.  It seems that Iannetta is a top ten catcher, but we have only 66 plate appearances with which to judge his possible breakout. 

I'd rather have Iannetta than Paul Bako, but I prefer other breakout types like Ryan Doumit or Chris Snyder.  And keep an eye on Dioner Navarro.

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Corpas In Trouble

Another blown save for Manny Corpas last night.  I didn't see this coming, but he's already in danger of losing his job.  Brian Fuentes is the obvious replacement (he's been solid this year).

By all means check your waiver wire for Fuentes.  He was already owned in all of my leagues as of yesterday afternoon, though.

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