Closers

Closers: Padres, Angels, Brewers

For all the latest on closers and low-pressure eighth innings, be sure to follows @closernews on Twitter.

Padres
Huston Street's 2012 is a two-sided story of brilliance and what could have been. The Padres' stopper has been dominant when he's been healthy, but after straining his calf over the weekend, he's on the disabled list for the second time this season and what amounts to the fourth* time in the past two seasons. So while his owners have relished the 0.75 ERA and 0.53(!) WHIP, those contributions have been offset by somewhat by his modest 21 saves.

*Street was shut down toward the end of 2011 though he was not technically placed on the DL.

With Padres holding Street's rights for at least a couple more years, I'd expect them to play his rehab and return conservatively. And while this is completely baseless speculation, I wonder if they wouldn't shut him down if he progresses slowly or suffers a setback in rehab.

Following Street's injury, the Padres were mum about who would close in his stead. The primary candidates were thought to be Dale Thayer, who overachieved as Street's stand-in in May, and Luke Gregerson, who is enjoying another successful year but has traditionally been handled delicately. The guess here was that stuff would win the day, so Gregerson is where I was looking first. But in something of a surprise move, the Friars went back to Thayer, who profiles more like a middle reliever than late-inning guy on account of his modest strikeout and groundball rates, for the first post-Street save chance on Monday night.

Thayer should be the first guy you add if he's still out there, and though the Padres and Bud Black showed no inclination to experiment with a committee last time Street was injured, those of you who miss out on Thayer may want to snap up Gregerson and hope that Thayer slumps and relinquishes the job.

Angels
The Halos' bullpen became far more predictable once Scott Downs and, to a lesser extent, former closer Jordan Walden were both shelved due to injury: Ernesto Frieri had the job all to his lonesome. But now Downs and Walden are both nearing returns, and Downs in particular could vulture the occasional save from Frieri down the stretch, just as he did prior to being added to the DL.

After a terrific start to the season, Downs looked very mortal in a few of his outings leading up to this DL stint, although you wonder if those struggles could be attributed to the injury. In any event, Frieri has come down to earth a bit, too, and with the Angels fighting for every win they can get as they pursue the postseason, my guess is that no one's job is set in stone. Frieri should be gone in any league worth its salt, but Downs may have been cut loose when he was injured, so if you're desperate for saves, he's a guy who will probably chip in a few (with a slight chance of more) during the season's final weeks.

As for Walden, his odds of closing upon his return are remote (pretty surprising considering his run as the team's stopper last season), but he has overpowering stuff, so it will be interesting to see how the Angels use him if he goes on a hot streak now that he's supposedly healthy. He's not worth an add, but keep an eye on him.

Brewers
After seeing magic dust wear off John Axford, the Brewers decided to find the next Aford, turning over the reins of their beleaguered bullpen to the equally nondescriptly named Jim Henderson. The soon-to-be 30-year-old tenuously seized Milwaukee's closing gig shortly after his Major League debut, which is really pretty shocking if you think about it. Anyway, in the extremely small sample size of his Major League career to date (nine innings through Monday night), Henderson's peripherals look sharp -- and eerily similar to Axford's circa 2K11: very strong strikeout and groundball rates, and a decent walk rate.

Inconveniently enough, though, he's allowed earned runs in three of his past five outings, which can't help him in his bid to run with the job. Brewers manager Ron Roenicke said after Henderson's clunker on Sunday that Jim-Hen will get a bit more leash before the Crew looks elsewhere (for the umpteenth time this season) for another closer. And although it's been my unscientific observation that the bullpen is the place where late bloomers are likeliest to carve out Major League niches for themselves, I'm not especially optimistic that Henderson will be able to keep his manager's faith for too long.

I keep waiting for Axford to get finally hit his stride this season and grab ahold of the gig once and for all, but that ship may have sailed. Whether's that due to injury or just plain old regression, I can't say, but the only way to play this one for now is to chase each guy the Brewers trot out there. Axford may be worth a stash on a bench, but he's shown little make me believe that's anything more than a hail mary at this point.

Quickly
 A's closer Ryan Cook was demoted to the eighth inning for a couple of appearances to get himself straightened out, leaving things to old friend Grant Balfour in the meanwhile. I'm taking the A's at face value on this, but the situation looks very fluid to me. ... Red Sox righty Andrew Bailey was scheduled to be activated from the disabled list Tuesday, but there have been no indications that he'll close. I like Alfredo Aceves to hold the job based on merit, so I'd drop Bailey if I were in a roster squeeze, but there's no harm in holding onto him for a week or two if you have the space. ... Twins righty Matt Capps underwent an MRI which revealed only shoulder inflammation, but he's not close to starting a throwing program. Glen Perkins and Jared Burton remain entrenched as co-closers. ... The Marlins' plan to ease Heath Bell back into closing may have blown up in their faces with his four-run debacle Sunday. I wouldn't go out of my way to add him if he were on my wire; Steve Cishek owners should sit tight. ... The Royals have once again announced that Aaron Crow is a candidate to move to the rotation next year. This is why I leaned toward Greg Holland taking over for Jonathan Broxton when the latter was traded at the deadline, so keep it in mind moving forward.

---

Closers: Royals, Rockies, Mets

The long-awaited trade deadline arrives this afternoon, so be sure to follow @closernews on Twitter, which will keep you posted on any deals that have ninth-inning ramifications.

In the meanwhile, we're going to do something a little bit different in this space this week, focusing first on the best setup men to target as handcuffs in anticipation of potential promotions before turning our attention back to the usual bullpen comings and goings. On with the rundown ...

Royals
Jonathan Broxton's name seems to be turning up on MLB Trade Rumors on just about a daily basis lately. There's no question that teams (Giants, Rangers, Orioles?) are interested in acquiring the right-hander, and that makes sense despite his overall slip in stuff: His surface stats are strong and is under contract only through this season.

The Royals can be cagey about making trades like this, so it's impossible to say for sure whether a deal will go through. In the meantime, I'd advise you saves trollers to snap up setup man Greg Holland. The right-hander is not flashing the kind of dominance he did only a season ago -- walks have become an issue, most notably -- but his strikeout and groundball rates are very good, resulting in a 2.92 SIERA that looks far more attractive than the 3.63 ERA.

There's no guarantee that Holland would take over the ninth inning were Brox traded, as the Royals boast a pretty deep bullpen on the back end with Aaron Crow and Tim Collins. But Holland closed in Joakim Soria's stead over the final month or so of 2011 and was considered to have at least an even-odds shot of getting the job before losing out to Broxton when Soria again went down this spring due to Tommy John surgery.

So, add Holland now. We should know by this evening whether he's a closer.

Rockies
As with Broxton, Rox closer Rafael Betancourt's name is also surfacing in the rumor mill. The right-hander enjoyed a career year in 2011 and is pitching well again this season at age 37. He's potentially under team control through 2014 at very affordable salaries, but therein lies the rub: the Rockies could just as easily keep Raf-Bet for the same reason that other teams want to acquire him. And since he's a useful and cheap Major League commodity, there's no reason for Colorado to deal him off without getting a decent return, further complicating a potential trade.

Based on their contracts, Broxton looks to me like a stronger trade candidate than Betancourt, but it would hardly shock me if the Rox -- an organization in desperate need of some change -- were to offload their closer. In that event, I like Rex Brothers to take over the ninth inning in Denver. The Rockies have invested heavily in Brothers (first-round draft pick in 2009) and fast-tracked him for life as a high-leverage reliever. With already strong strikeout rates and a whopping 14.1% swinging-strike rate, Brothers specializes in missing bats, so he certainly fits the closer profile.

Again, we're basically looking at a one-night waiting period as far as Brothers' closing prospects. So, add away, and you can hold or cut him accordingly by Wednesday morning.

Mets
The Amazin's weekly appearance in this space soldiers on (this time with a couple of updates that materially move the situation along!). For one, injured closer Frank Francisco is finally making tangible strides in his minor league rehab stint after a couple of setbacks. I have zero confidence that Frank-Frank is held together by anything more than chewing gum and Scotch tape at this point, but I suppose the Mets will do their best to return him to the mound if he's anywhere near game shape. It's not like they're trying to protect at this point of his career.

As well, interim stopper Bobby Parnell continues to struggle, getting tagged for a pair of runs Monday night. Since Francisco was lost to the DL, Parnell has posted passable but not great numbers (3.46 ERA, two blown saves), albeit in a small sample, perhaps furthering the narrative that he's not "cut out" to close. Do the Mets believe that? Maybe, but I'm banking on Francisco closing once/if he comes back.

As always, I'd advise Parnell owners to hold on till he's officially been deposed. And with Francisco's injury woes, that is far from inevitable. But I think the Mets' ideal situation is to return Francisco to closing and slide everyone else down a peg, so Parnell owners should prepare for that scenario.

Quickly
The Brewers have gone back to John Axford as their closer. He's not inspiring much confidence and is actually getting dropped in many fantasy leagues, but at least there is some hope that he can return to being a decent closer, whereas Francisco Rodriguez's has gone completely off the rails. ... Red Sox right-hander Andrew Bailey is scheduled to commence a minor league rehab stint Wednesday. He'll need at least a couple weeks to get back into Major League shape. Alfredo Aceves' owners are safe. ... The Padres and Huston Street finalized a contract extension, cementing the right-hander's place as the team's closer for the remainder of this season and beyond. Injuries are always a concern with Street, but when he's healthy, he's usually pretty good. ... Santiago Casilla's owners should hold their breath till after the deadline. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Giants acquire Broxton, Betancourt or someone else to take over the ninth.

---

Closer Updates: Astros, Brewers, Marlins

It's been a busy week in Closer Land, and more action could be on the way with the trade deadline now only seven days away. We'll keep you covered here, but as always, keep an eye on the @closernews Twitter feed for the latest breaking info.

Astros
Well, the Astros pulled off what the Padres couldn't do last year, trading off both their closer and primary setup man. The frenzy of deals had greater fantasy impact than anything else, with Brett Myers going from closer to setup man with the White Sox, Brandon Lyon remaining a setup man as he moved to the Blue Jays, and Francisco Cordero getting his passport stamped with "closer" en route from Toronto to Houston.

Phew.

So, Fran-Cor is the reliever who emerges from this rearrangement of deck chairs with a sharp uptick in value. If you recall, the Jays tried him as their closer earlier this season when Sergio Santos first went on the disabled list. Remember that? Yeah, I do, because I owned Cordero and vividly recall him failing miserably before yielding to Casey Janssen. So, it's hard for me to give Cordero much of a vote of confidence. On the other hand, the NL Central ain't the AL East, and Cordero closed in this division rather effectively as recently as 2011.

If you need saves or need to prevent a competitor from accruing more of them, nab Cordero and hope for the best. If the former is your motivation, you always have the option of benching him. As for Myers, Lyon and Astros righty Wilton Lopez, whom some scooped up as a deep sleeper, it's safe to cut away.

Brewers
Let's remain in the NL Central, where those feisty Brewers are giving fantasy owners fits.

On the surface, it looks like John Axford has followed up his breakout 2011 with a complete dud. But mostly, the Ax Man has been the victim of some bad luck and a flukey home run rate (20.7%!), with his 3.10 SIERA sitting much closer to his 2.86 career ERA than his 4.91 2012 ERA.

Until last week, the Brewers had been surprisingly patient with the Axford, even sticking with their guy when no one would have blamed them for looking to someone else. ... But they'd apparently seen enough after another Axford debacle, giving him a chance to sort things out in lower-leverage situations while old friend (to no one) Francisco Rodriguez took over.

K-Rod, though, has been walking a tight rope all season, and it really bit him on Monday night, when he was tagged for four earned in two-thirds of an inning against the Phillies. Oof. If someone cut Axford loose in your league, snap him up with the quickness. I think he'll be back closing before long. Remember that Milwaukee signed him to an extension before the season, so he's their closer of the future.

Marlins
Steve Cishek has two of the Marlins' three post-break saves, and I think he'd have all of them were it not for an apparent illness that sidelined him last week and opened the door for Mike Dunn to pick one up. Cishek is clearly Ozzie Guillen's guy right now, so nab him if he's still on your league's wire. But the real question here is what Heath Bell owners should do. Clearly, there is some indecision, as Bell is still owned in 78% of Yahoo! leagues.

I would treat Bell as a "preferred" own -- someone I'd like to hold onto if I could, but if something more pressing comes along, I'd cut away. I say this because I could envision Bell shoehorning his way into the Marlins' supposed "committee" if he can continue to pitch better (four consecutive scoreless outings since the All-Star break). The Marlins, after all, are stuck with Bell for two more years; I'm sure they'd love to trade him, as has been reported, but no one is taking him off their hands unless they eat basically the entire contract, which ain't happening. Easing Bell back into some save situations down the stretch would be a more palatable saving-face move for The Franchise the franchise and set up Bell to once again take the reins heading into 2013.

Quick-ish
Mets closer Frank Francisco was on the verge of commencing a minor league rehab stint but had another setback. Bobby Parnell owners can hold on, although between his recent slump and the Mets' relative dearth of save opps, owning the Mets' interim closer is tough sledding these days. I expect Francisco to regain closing duties upon his return, but let's see him return first. ... The Padres are nearing a contract extension with closer Huston Street. As such, he won't be changing teams, so those who handcuffed Luke Gregerson can move on. ... White Sox closer Addison Reed has had a sometimes shaky indoctrination into the Major Leagues this season, providing Chicago with ample opportunity to make (yet another) shuffle. Sox brass has declined, though, so I think Reed is safe even with the addition of another closer candidate in Myers. ... The Royals are fielding offers for Jonathan Broxton. I think there's even odds he gets dealt, and I like Greg Holland to take over if Brox goes. Aaron Crow would be another possibility, mostly because of Holland's struggles relative to last year, but I think the Royals are still figuring out who/what Crow is. ... Nationals right-hander Drew Storen is back from the DL, just in time to put a scare into the owners of the struggling Tyler Clippard. But with Storen having missed so much time, he's probably not in midseason form, and the Nats will want to go easy on him. I think Clippard is safe unless he's still slumping another week or two from now, when Storen will have more appearances under his belt. ... Red Sox right-hander Andrew Bailey is nearing a minor league rehab stint, which would put him on track for a mid-August return barring setbacks. Alfredo Aceves is expected to keep his job as Boston's closer, though.

---

Closers: Marlins, Mets

If you want to get me out of your head, you can follow the latest closer developments on Twitter at @closernews.

Marlins
For all the shakeups we saw early in the season, Miami's closer situation has been closely followed but otherwise fruitless for storm saves chasers. I've written about it countless times, and yet it's taken till mid-July for the sharks to see anything more than a few heaps of chum.

Ozzie Guillen announced during the All-Star break that he'd be going to a closer committee once the second half commenced. Sure enough, Steve Cishek saw the Marlins' first save opportunity thereupon, converting for the vaunted five-out save. It's worth noting that Heath Bell tossed a scoreless inning in his second-half debut on Sunday, entering the game with the Fish facing a four-run deficit.

It's a small sample size to draw any definitive conclusions, but the best we can infer for now is that Cishek is the first option. Of course, Guillen did say he'd be using a committee, so the newly activated Edward Mujica and LOOGY Randy Choate cannot yet be ruled out, nor can the demoted Bell, who lost his job similarly in May and quickly regained it.

But for now, Cishek is the better own, and those who scooped up Juan Carlos Oviedo last week in response to Guillen's excitement about his return can safely reconsider, as Oviedo's minor league rehab assignment has been put on hold due to right elbow discomfort. It doesn't sound promising, and though it may amount to little more than a false alarm, it will likely delay Oviedo's return and perhaps furnish a hopeful such as Cishek enough time to run with the job.

Mets
Bobby Parnell owners got good and bad news over the weekend. On an upbeat note,  Frank Francisco's minor league rehab stint was shut down before it ever even started, as he apparently hasn't healed sufficiently from his oblique injury. As we've noted before, that ailment has a history of giving fits to the afflicted. I'd have to guess this could set back Francisco's return another week or two, and that could be a conservative estimate.

Unfortunately, Parnell celebrated his presumptive ninth-inning extension with a blown save on Saturday, his first since taking over for Francisco as Mets closer. I don't think this incident alone will have much bearing on Parnell's standing as Mets closer. However, based based on his unsuccessful stint as stopper last season, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a relatively shorter leash if he begins to slump. I have no reason to think he will slump -- the peripherals all check out -- but it can only take a few bad outings before a guy is on the ropes.

The bottom line is, hold onto Parnell if you had designs on cutting him in anticipation of Francisco's return. Parnell should get another couple of weeks, although it's worth keeping an eye on his next outing, which could determine whether his seat starts to get a little hot.

Francisco owners are now in the tricky spot of guessing whether he'll reclaim the closer's role upon whenever he finally returns. My initial instinct was that he'd get the job back, but the longer he's out, the less likely that scenario becomes. For me, he'd fall into the hold-if-you-can-but-cut-if-you-must category.

Quickly
Blue Jays stopper Sergio Santos will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery, meaning Casey Janssen's grip on the job -- already strong -- just got a wee bit tighter. Janssen should have every opportunity to get through the rest of the season as Toronto's closer, and based on the peripherals, he should be able to do it. Santos should be cut in all yearly leagues, and even those in keeper leagues may want to look elsewhere. ... Drew Storen, the Nationals' former closer, has seen his minor league rehab stint mucked up by arm fatigue. It doesn't sound major, but it appears that Storen's return to the Majors may be pushed back a week or so. Tyler Clippard has been lights-out there, but it'll be interesting to see how Washington handles Storen, a young player in whom they have invested a lot of resources since drafting him in the first round in 2009. ... The Twins will ease Matt Capps back into closing in his return from shoulder stiffness, meaning Glen Perkins and Jared Burton owners should sit tight till Capps has fully regained the job. ... Red Sox right-hander Andrew Bailey's on-again, off-again rehab from right thumb surgery is back on again, but he's still no fewer than a couple weeks off, barring setbacks.

---

Closer Updates: Marlins, Red Sox, Twins

Don't be misled by the relative lack of tweets from @closernews over the next couple days. It'll return to keeping you posted on all things stoppers just as soon as the regular season resumes ... when Fernando Rodney closes out the NL All-Stars (and assures the Orioles home-field advantage in the World Series).

Marlins
Heath Bell still stinks, and Juan Carlos Oviedo is beginning a minor league assignment in anticipation of his return from suspension for identity fraud. So, naturally, the only thing for Ozzie Guillen to do was suggest that Bell and Oviedo could share save opportunities once JCO is back. This is easily the most ingenious plot twist the producers of "The Franchise" have come up with yet.

Anyway, am I taking this seriously? Frankly, yes, because it doesn't make a whole lot of sense, and that's exactly what I expect out of the Fish these days. The Marlins would have been justified in making this move basically at any point this season, and yet they've waited till now? And for a so-so pitcher in Oviedo who's coming off a personal scandal?

The soonest Oviedo can be activated is July 23, at which point you have to figure he'll need a few Major League outings before he's thrown back into high-leverage situations. That could push back a potential return to closing around Aug. 1. So, if you've got some bench to play with and you're desperate for saves, Oviedo is a guy you can pounce on now. The payoff probably won't be huge, but there's no sense in leaving saves on the wire if you need 'em and your team is in contention.

Red Sox
So, yeah, Andrew Bailey ... The latest on him is that he might not be back till late August or September after having his rehab throwing sessions scaled back, according to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe.

Obviously, this is not good news. And there's not a whole lot of case-specific insight I can offer on this other than that the 40% of you Yahoo! leaguers who are still holding on can move on, unless you have no more pressing uses for your DL slots.

Despite an ugly ERA and a couple notable blown saves, Alfredo Aceves' peripherals have settled nicely, culminating in a 3.38 SIERA. Ideally, you'd like to see him whittle that down closer to 3.00, but the point is he's capable of holding onto the gig and should do so with little competition. He'll help your team if it needs it, and if you had designs on flipping him, his trade value just increased substantially.

That being said, Bailey has become yet another in a long line of closers this season who've furnished the don't-pay-for-saves set with plenty of ammo. I'm probably overstating things a bit here, but I do wonder whether we'll see owners drafting differently next spring.

Twins
Contrary to my conservative estimate for his return from the DL, Matt Capps could be back with the Twins once games resume, which would basically amount to the minimum stay if you factor in the All-Star break. I don't suspect anyone is especially pleased by this development, certainly not Twins fans nor Capps owners of years past -- and perhaps not Capps' current owners.

It's been whispered in other dark corners of the interwebs that Capps will immediately return to closing, but I'm not necessarily sold on that. Jared Burton and Glen Perkins have split closing duties in Capps' absence and done a (mostly) nice job, and, well, Capps is Capps.

Regardless of what the Twins ultimately decide, though, Burton's and Perkins' owners should hold on till Capps is back, healthy and effective. It's worth mentioning again that Capps is something of a trade candidate, so even if Burton and Perkins are banished back to the seventh and eighth innings once Capps is back, they would of course pick up the slack in the event he were traded.

Argh.

Quickly
Rumors are kicking up that the Royals will take offers on Jonathan Broxton. I do think that he'll drew a lot of interest considering his history and season performance to date, but glancing at the peripherals, a firm caveat emptor is in order. Anyway, Greg Holland is the guy to look at as a handcuff. ... Nationals righty Drew Storen has begun a minor league rehab stint and will soon rejoin the big club. Davey Johnson sounded firm in declaring Tyler Clippard his one-and-only closer, but I'm calling bullshyte on that if Storen comes back strong and Clipp hits a rough patch. ... Blue Jays closer Sergio Santos has finally been cleared to ramp up his rehab efforts after so many starts and stops. I'm cautiously optimistic that this time's the charm, but in any event, it'll be at least a couple weeks till he's back and probably more, by my calculation. Casey Janssen owners should sit tight ... Mets closer Frank Francisco, too, is rehabbing and is expected to get his closing job back upon his return. Similarly, though, Bobby Parnell owners may as well hold on as long as they can.

---

Closer Updates: Giants, Red Sox, Twins

For the latest breaking stories in the #untuck fad that's gripping the nation, be sure to follow @closernews on Twitter.

Giants
Sergio Romo has been breaking hearts for a couple years running, it seems. Every time a Giants closer hits a rough patch, Romo's admirers become giddy at the possibility of the right-hander taking over the ninth inning. Indeed, the prospect of owning a closer who strikes out 11.51 per nine and boasts a 2.17 SIERA is quite exciting. Except, here we are, and circumstances have yet to conspire for the right-hander to take the reins.

The latest rash of Romo hysteria has broken out over the past couple weeks, as incumbent Santiago Casilla has slumped to some extent after getting out of the gates better than any of his owners could have hoped for in taking over for the injured Brian Wilson. Casilla coughed up runs in three consecutive outings from June 22-24, then wasn't exactly sharp in his next two outings, on June 26 and on Sunday.

So, is Romo a must-add? Well, he's good enough to be owned in many non-holds leagues based on his ridiculous strikeout rates, ratios, and the possibility of him snatching up the odd save here and there, but this seems a perfect opportunity to gently remind you saves vultures that Romo is rather fra-gee-lay -- and the Giants handle him accordingly.

From this, I think we can divine a couple inferences. First, without a no-brainer alternative to Casilla, I don't think the Giants are especially motivated to make a change -- nor should they be, as Casilla has pitched well (3.01 SIERA) overall despite his recent struggles. Secondly, even if the Giants were to demote Casilla, it might only elevate Romo to some kind of ninth-inning platoon along with Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez in order to limit Romo's workload. Note that Romo has logged only 22 2/3 innings to Casilla's 31 -- and the latter even missed a week or so due to a minor injury.

The bottom line is, Romo is a nice own, but don't break your neck to acquire him if he's already off your wire, and if you do get your mitts on him, don't expect him to produce any more than a handful of saves in the second half.

Red Sox
After a minor setback a couple weeks back, Andrew Bailey has resumed his rehabilitation from the right thumb surgery he underwent earlier this year. The right-hander is long-tossing and nearing bullpen sessions, and if those go well, he would then be cleared to begin a minor league rehab assignment. In my amateur assessment, I'm thinking that should put him on track for a mid- or late-July return, barring setbacks, of course.

Interestingly, though, manager Bobby Valentine recently declined to commit to making Bailey the Red Sox's closer upon his return from the DL.

I can't hold it against Bobby V. for wanting to show a little faith in Aceves while Bailey's return is still a ways off, but I'm calling bull on this. Boston acquired Bailey to close, and though Aceves has overall been decent this year (3.20 SIERA), there's some room for improvement there. Not to mention, Aceves has been a swing man throughout his career, so he's probably best deployed as a long reliever and occasional spot-starter, anyway.

There's not much action fantasy owners should take right now. Aceves should still be owned, of course, but Bailey's looming return makes me quite uncomfortable about Aceves' long-term prospects, so risk-averse owners may want to cash out while Bailey's comeback is far enough off the radar. Bailey should be owned, too, and if he's languishing on your wire, snatch him up and stash him on your DL/bench with the quickness.

Twins
Fantasy owners (and Twins fans) rejoice: Matt Capps' return may not be far off! Jokes, jokes. The right-hander is targeting the Twins' first game back from the All-Star break to make his highly anticipated return from the DL, which is probably on the shorter side of things considering he was dealing with the dreaded shoulder inflammation.

The Jared Burton-Glen Perkins platoon has gone smoothly for the Twins but annoyingly for fantasy owners who own only one of those fellows. However, I'd expect the Twins to reinstall Capps as their closer once he's back, if for no other reason than because they overlooked his mediocrity in naming him their stopper out of Spring Training and stuck with him before his injury despite so-so results. Maybe they're loyal to a fault, or maybe they just see something in Capps the rest of us don't.

That being said, Capps remains a trade candidate leading up to this month's deadline, and while I have a hard time imagining any team being motivated to acquire him, stranger things have happened. In which case, we might be right back to square one: another Burton-Perkins platoon? Ugh.

Quickly
Mets manager Terry Collins said injured closer Frank Francisco will likely reclaim closing duties from interim stopper Bobby Parnell upon his return from the DL. I'm taking Collins at face value on this one. ... Rays righty Kyle Farnsworth is back from the DL and, as promised, not closing. It would take a deep Fernando Rodney slump and a prolonged period of excellence for K-Farns to get back into the ninth, from where I sit.

---

Closer Updates: Mets, Twins, Reds

If you can't wait to strike out those chickens, be sure to follow @closernews on Twitter.

Mets
The fantasy vultures were circling the Mets' bullpen earlier this season, when Frank Francisco was struggling mightily. Francisco settled down a bit since then, but the fantasy opportunists have now gotten their revenge with Double-F being placed on the 15-day DL due to an oblique strain.

Unlike Mets bullpen shakeups of past, manager Terry Collins left little room for doubt or debate this time, swiftly naming Bobby Parnell as Francisco's fill-in. After a few seasons of ups and downs since breaking into the bigs 2008, Parnell finally seems to have put it all together this year, maintaining strong strikeout, walk and groundball rates: 9.0 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, and 54.7% GB. Mix those tasty ingredients together in a SIERA salad, and you're left with a 2.66 mark (compared to a 3.19 ERA). That'll play.

If he's on your wire, don't hesitate to snatch Parnell (owned in 25% of Yahoo! leagues), even if you're not especially in need of saves. He's certainly capable of racking up a handful of saves for your team, but you could also try to flip him to a saves-needy owner in your league with the promise that this is more than a 10-day or two-week cameo. Francisco, remember, is dealing with an oblique strain, which often sideline afflicted players beyond the 15-day minimum stay on the DL. The Yankees' David Robertson, for example, missed more than a month with the same injury.

It's probably too soon to say whether Parnell could hold onto the job when Francisco returns, but my instinct is that he'd have to pitch exceptionally well to do that. So, for now, assume the gig is Parnell's for about a month. There's plenty of value in that.

Twins
Gosh, there's a lot to say about this situation, and without a lot of "effort," this could quickly devolve into an expletive-laden diatribe. But, I'll play nice.

First, the unequivocal: Matt Capps has been placed on the disabled list due to shoulder inflammation. I wish I had a better grip on how long he might be out, but I'm pretty sure it's a case-by-case situation with an injury like this. Sergio Santos, for one, has been out since April due to shoulder inflammation, but that seems to be one extreme on the spectrum. So, stash Capps on your DL if you own him, although nothing's promised in terms of when he comes back or whether he closes if/when he does come back, as far as I'm concerned.

Now, as for his fill-in(s). I touted Glen Perkins here last week, and sure enough he picked up the Twins' first two saves in Capps' stead. But then Ron Gardenhire got all fancy on us, calling on Jared Burton for the next two saves in what was a matchups-based decision. The strategy makes perfect sense in real life but does little for us fantasy types. Ugh, there's nothing worse than a closer platoon.

The deal is that, yes, both Perkins and Burton should be owned. Reading the tea leaves, I don't think one will see the majority of save opps, unless perhaps one suffers through an ill-timed and pronounced slump. So, for owners who are in good standing in saves, I see no harm in grabbing only one or neither of these fellows and instead using the roster space for something else. But for those in need in saves, one -- or both -- of these guys can help you.

Frustrating, yes. But chasing saves is a dirty business. 

Reds
What the heck has happened to Aroldis Chapman? The left-hander kicked down the door to grab closing duties for the Reds, but he's struggled mightily of late, allowing runs in five of his past seven outings -- with reports surfacing of a minor back ailment, to boot.

Chapman is obviously in incredible talent; you don't need me to tell you that. But I do wonder about whether he's cut out to hold onto closing duties for the balance of the season, mostly because he seems awfully tricky to handle in terms of usage. In particular, both he and the Reds seem averse to pitching him on three consecutive days, which is not so much a problem in terms of lost save opportunities as what it might suggest about his durability.

I own deposed closer Sean Marshall in my primary league, although admittedly that's more because the league counts holds than because I suspect a shakeup is imminent. However, I am definitely concerned about Chapman right now, and I would be sure to handcuff Marshall to him if I owned Chapman in a standard league. Marshall, for what it's worth, has rounded back into form after his early-season struggles.

Quickly
The Blue Jays transferred Santos to the 60-day DL in what was mostly a procedural move. Santos has resumed playing catch, although it seems like Toronto is moving the right-hander along slowly. I'd be surprised if he were back before late July, and even then I'm not sure he gets his job back from Casey Janssen. ... Drew Storen is progressing nicely in his return from elbow surgery, but Nationals manager Davey Johnson said D-Sto will return as a setup man. That's not a surprising decision considering how well Tyler Clippard has pitched, although Storen owners will want to hold him as long as possible. ... A's closer Ryan Cook suffered his first meltdown over the weekend but rebounded nicely his next time out. He wasn't going to pitch to a sub-1.00 ERA all season but should have plenty of leash as Oakland's closer considering his upside and the underwhelming alternatives. ... The Diamondbacks bought out a couple arbitration years for setup man David Hernandez, perhaps an indication that they plan on using him as their closer once J.J. Putz moves on. That could be as soon as next season, for those of you in keeper leagues, although the club holds a $6.5MM option on Putz for 2013.

---

Closer Updates: Cubs, Twins, Tigers

Do I follow @closernews on Twitter for all the latest on closer situations? That's a clown question, bro; of course I do.

Cubs
I feel like such a dirty hypocrite. I've said since he was on the DL that Carlos Marmol would be reinstated as Cubs closer once he returned. Sure enough, despite not really pitching well enough to warrant the promotion, Marmol is back in the role after picking up a rocky save against the Red Sox.

So, why am I being a phony? Because Marmol has been languishing on the wire in the MLBTR League -- which is an active, relatively competitive league -- and yet I can't pull the trigger on picking him up. He's too up and down for my tastes, and I'm having enough trouble managing my ERA and WHIP with Mat Latos putting up bricks just about every time out. Plus, I have three decent closers in Jim Johnson, Casey Janssen and Tom Wilhelmsen. I "paid" for only one of them on draft day, for those of you keeping score at home. 

So, Marmol remains owned in just 47% of Yahoo! leagues, and if you're desperate for saves -- and can withstand the ocassional nuking to your ratios -- the right-hander is your guy.

Yes, there's plenty reason to think the Cubs' handling of Marmol is in anticipation of a potential deadline trade. After all, if they're going to try to ship him out, they'd be well advised to prop up his value as much as possible. And how strongly could they pitch him if he's not even in the best reliever in his own horrid bullpen? Of course, it's no secret that Marmol has been sharply trending downward for well over a year now, but you can't fault the Cubs for trying to convince everyone otherwise. 

All of which is to say, yes, Marmol might not be for long as Cubs closer -- and that end could just as easily arrive by trade as by ineffectiveness. But in the meanwhile, saves are saves, and if you need 'em, here's an opportunity. Car-Mar was a stud in the not-too-distant past, and stranger things have happened than for a talent arm to take off.

Twins
Matt Capps was pretty terrible as Twins closer in 2011, eventually losing his job to Glen Perkins and later Joe Nathan. He's rebounded to some extent this season and has actually flown under the radar as an underwhelming but servicable dirt-cheap closer type.

The news hasn't been great for Capps of late, though. First, he took a loss on Friday while coughing up a pair of earned runs. Then, he was unavailable Saturday and Sunday due to shoulder inflammation. Hmm ... What is it they about correlation and causation, again? Anyway, Twins GM Terry Ryan says Capps is fine, but ya know, I like my team-spun info with a big fat grain of salt.

Meanwhile, Perkins is again looking like a pitcher who is kicking down the dang door for his chase at closing despite his team's protestations over his handedness. Previous generations tied lefties to chairs and threw them in lakes, so impeding Perkins' path to the ninth inning is relative progress. Anyway, Capps might be injured, and even if he's not, he's looking like a sensible trade candidate (though I wonder which contender would consider him an upgrade), so Perkins may see a half-season audition to close before the Twins again bring someone in and bump him down the ladder in 2013.

Perkins is probably gone in most holds leagues, but I think there's room for him as a solid handcuff candidate in standard leagues and a must-add in anything deeper than that. Of course, the Twins could always pull a fast one and filibust a Jared Burton type into the role, but for now I'm assuming talent wins the day.

Tigers
We should all be so fortunate as Jose Valverde in these ugly times. No matter how close he comes to the verge of losing his job, Jo-Val seems to scrape together a competent-enough string of outings to quell the mob and live to see the light of another day.

But the odds have to catch up to Papa Grande at some point, right? This aggression 4.92 SIERA will not stand, man. I mean, 4.92! That's pretty terrible. The 1.12 K/BB is just as bad. There's not a lot to like here.

In fairness, Valverde has always been one of those guys who manages to confound the advanced ERA estimators. But that was when he had the vaunted ability to miss bats. Now, he's just a big-bellied, skinny-legged, past-his-prime closer who lacks control and the ability to miss bats. Ugh.

Meanwhile, Joaquin Benoit continues his redemption song after an up-and-down first year in Detroit. He continues to rack up whiffs, and his low-low 2.05 ERA is within a stone's throw of his 2.29 SIERA. He's long had the stuff to close. Now, he just need the opportunity to do it.

Come on, Valverde: Give someone else a chance.

---

Closer Updates: Athletics, Mariners, Giants

We spotlight three California teams this week. For less west coast bias, check out @closernews on Twitter for up-to-the-minute updates.

Athletics
"You know, I once read an interesting book which said that, uh, most people lost in the wild, they die of shame."

Anthony Hopkins uttered that gem in "The Edge," a mediocre, little-known survival flick I stumbled upon on Netflix a few months back. I never would have guessed I'd quote Hopkins from anything other than personal favorite "Silence of the Lambs," but sometimes life surprises us, eh?

Anyway, I thought this pearl of wisdom was perfectly appropriate advice for those of us -- including yours truly -- who bought into the "new and improved" Brian Fuentes a few weeks back. We mustn't die of shame, as it were, for having been fooled by a pitcher who has so quickly reverted back to his old, terrible form. Instead, let's soldier ahead and uncover some solutions.

Last week, after Fuentes' third meltdown in four appearances, Manager Bob Melvin has said he'd be going to a three-man committee of Ryan Cook, Grant Balfour and, yes, Fuentes, one which will be dictated on a game-to-game basis by rest and matchups. Setting aside Fuentes and Balfour, both of whom fantasy owners are in no rush to add or hold onto based on their respective performances during their runs as closer, let's have a look at Cook.

The righty has generated some buzz in his first year with Oakland, remaining unscored upon till late May. He boasts a pretty 0.69 ERA and strong strikeout rate that look great on paper, ut the 5.19 BB/9 and subsequent 3.90 SIERA suggest that it's entirely unsustainable. Cook may be one of those pitchers who can defy advanced ERA estimators, but I want to see more than one-third of a season's worth of data before I concede that. Between the small sample, strong defense and pitcher-friendly home ballpark, it's more likely that Cook has been the beneficiary of some good luck so far.

If I were forced to throw my hat into this three-closer circus, I'd start with Cook based on the outside chance that he can keep up this pace and run away with the job. But that's as much a condemnation of Balfour and Fuentes as it is a vote of confidence in Cook's skills or that the A's are inclined to give him a fair shake.

Mariners
I believed that the M's preferred to have Brandon League closing even after they demoted him, but I was pretty nervous about that call when I saw no-name relievers like Tom Wilhelmsen and Steve Delabar continue runs of excellence in his stead. It seemed it'd be tough for League to reclaim the job with those strong arms in front of him, even accounting for the Mariners' likely interest in trading him prior to this summer's deadline.

But sure enough, after League posted just 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball since his demotion, the M's announced he would soon be their closer again. Clearly, the team has faith in League and were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt after his slow start, but the guess here is that the move is also designed to prop up his stock in anticipation of the soon-to-heat-up trade market.

In any event, League is worth an add if he's hit the wire in your league. He could well be traded within the next six weeks, at which time he may become some other team's setup man, so he can't be counted on for saves through the season's balance. But whatever he contributes should make him worth an add at the cost of dropping the last player on your roster. Wilhelmsen owners (of which I am one) should hold on for now, because there's no guarantee League will rediscover last year's form, but it's looking like T-Wil's reign may soon end -- or perhaps be interrupted till League is dealt.

Giants
Santiago Casilla has returned from a minor knee ailment he suffered by absorbing a comebacker, so there's not a lot to discuss here from that angle. However, it's worth having a look at how Bruce Bochy divvied up the save chances during Casilla's absence. 

Once again, we were reminded that despite his dominance, Sergio Romo was not the automatic next-in-closer (as he wasn't when Brian Wilson was lost for the year). Because of his frailty, the Giants continue to handle Romo with caution; he's pitched just 17 innings in his 22 appearances. Thus, they're hesitant to be bound to deploying him in all proper save situations when in fact he may not always be available. So when they encountered five save chances while Casilla was out, three went to Romo and one apiece to Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt.

Romo is owned in many standard roto leagues, which is fine by me because of his ridiculous ratios and strong strikeout rates, but if you're handcuffing him on the off chance Casilla gets hurt or is for some reason demoted, there are better places you can look for such an investment. Calculate your investment in Romo accordingly.

Quick-ish Hits
Rafael Soriano was unavailable Monday night due to a blister, but the injury is not believed to be serious. David Robertson is on a minor league rehab stint, but the Yanks have said previously that Raf-Sor will remain closer when D-Rob returns. ... Sergio Santos suffered another setback during a recent bullpen session. Casey Janssen remains Toronto's closer for the foreseeable future. ... Drew Storen threw off a mound recently and is progressing nicely from elbow surgery. He is still expected back around the All-Star break.

 

 

---

Closer Updates: Reds, Cubs, Nats, Mets

Chris Perez may not enjoy playing in front of 5,000 fans, but there are roughly 12,000 followers over at @closernews who are at the ready for updates on him and all the other stoppers in MLB. You should, too, if you don't already.

Reds
Aroldis Chapman is one of the fascinating stories of the season. He has ditched the control problems that ailed him intermittently in 2010-11 and become an overwhelmingly dominant relief pitcher. Now, aided by Sean Marshall's less-than-impressive start, he's forced the Reds' hand in promoting him to the closer's role.

If you drafted Ar-Chap with this momentous ocassion in mind -- and absorbed his terrific stats in the meanwhile -- good for you. For what it's worth, I was skeptical of his control issues coming into the season and thought Marshall would be able to hold the job without trouble. Sometimes, the right circumstances and a little fervor can make things happen. Lesson learned here, though I wonder whether we'll see another reliever with similar circumstances to Chapman's anytime soon.

Anyway, Chapman has top-closer upside, but there's reason to think he could fall short of it. For one, the Reds are playing it conservatively with respect to his workload. They don't like him pitching on consecutive days (let alone three in a row), although the two occasions he's done it this season were both last week. So, maybe those were test runs. Still, it indicates a concern about how to best use and protect his arm. There's also the issue of whether he'll be converted to starting at some point. The Reds had him in the starting rotation in Spring Training but got cold feet, perhaps because the 'pen didn't look quite as deep without Ryan Madson. I doubt they'll move him now, in-season, because that can be dicey, but you never know.

So, if you own the left-hander and want to hedge against either of those factors eating into his value (particularly the workload quirks), flip him now for dollars on the dollar while Chapmania is running wild. Otherwise, feel free to sit back and enjoy his contributions to your ledger. Marshall can safely be dropped in non-holds leagues, but bear in mind he might still vulture the odd save if the Reds keep the bubble wrap on Chapman.

Cubs
This season will go down as a forgettable one for the Cubs, and their bullpen is no exception to that theme. Between Jeff Samardzija's transition to starting and an offseason trade that sent Marshall to the Reds, the "stalwarts" of the relief corps were Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood. Marmol did little to shake off his bipolar 2011, struggling badly out of the gate before being demoted from closing and then DL'd earlier this month. Wood looked every bit his age (including an umpteenth career DL stint) before suddenly and dramatically hanging 'em up last week.

Meanwhile, accidental Rafael Dolis has picked up the slack competently, but don't be fooled: His true talent is closer to his 4.82 SIERA than his 3.75 ERA.

Now, Marmol is set to begin a Minor League rehab assignment, a stint probably designed to massage all of his strained hamstring, eternally wonky mechanics and bruised ego back into form. There's little to suggest that'll actually happen, but it seems to come as quickly as it goes for Car-Mar, so you never know. The early reports indicate that a setup role is his likely first destination, but the guess here is that if Marmol can string together a few decent outings, the Cubs will shoehorn him back into the ninth. After all, he's an overpaid reliever on a bad, rebuilding team, which usually make for strong trade candidates when that time rolls around. A healthy, solid stretch as closer will boost his value, and the Cubs would be wise to facillitate that.

His ownership is down to 39% in Yahoo! leagues, so there's a chance you could recoup strong value if you stash him on your bench.

Nationals
After withstanding a few weeks of up-and-down performance from interim closer Henry Rodriguez, Nats skipper Davey Johnson seems ready to look elsewhere, perhaps even a committee. I can't say I'm terribly surprised, as H-Rod's control has always worried me, but I don't want to gloat about it (even though I'm gloating about it). #humblebrag

Thumbing through the list of candidates who might see a lion's share of save opps, Tyler Clippard jumps out. We've grown accustomed to him being passed over the past few years, as the Nats have preferred to reserve him for the occasional two-inning stint, but a quick glance at his game logs from this year reveals that he's yet to pitch more than one inning in any outing this season. If he's now a one-inning reliever, why not make that one inning be the ninth?

The other candidates include Craig Stammen, a former starter who seems to have assumed Clipp's old role as a long-ish man who can also throw in high-leverage situations. Left-hander Sean Burnett is still kicking around the back of the 'pen, too, and although his peripherals are strikingly similar to Clipp's, he's been used more like a LOOGY this season.

Clippard is the add from where I sit. Note that anointed closer Drew Storen isn't due back until sometime around the All-Star break.

Mets
Frank Francisco is carrying on the fine tradition of bad Mets closers, making seemingly every save chance a rollercoaster ride. At 3.79, his SIERA says he's not pitching nearly as poorly as his 7.56 ERA and 2.04(!) WHIP suggest, but boy, it's hard to believe that if you've seen his past few outings, as I have. (Full disclosure: I actually liked Francisco as something of a sleeper based on his league change and somewhat unfair rep as someone who had no business closing.)

Anyway, if the gap closes between his SIERA and ERA -- as it "should" -- then there will be better days ahead. Maybe the Mets know this, because they've stuck with Double-F despite having a couple chances to look elsewhere, particularly at Bobby Parnell, who appears to be coming into his own (finally).

So between the Mets' relative "faith" in Fran-Fran and the hope that he'll continue to chip away at his ugly numbers, he could be someone you might consider acquiring for a song. He's only owned in 70% of leagues, so that could be an option. And if he's owned in your league, and you're so inclined to try the trade route, you could probably get him in exchange for roster filler. There's a strong chance you'll get what you pay for, but there's also a non-zero chance you'll recoup some sweet correction-phase stats.

---

Search Roto Authority

Custom Search

Roto Authority Mailing List

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Roto Authority Features

Recent Posts

Monthly Archives