Closers

Shutdown Corner: NL East Closer Roundup

Last week, we started rolling out closer roundups for every division in baseball. This week, we're heading to the National League East, to look over the projected closer situations for all five teams. If you missed last week's review of the American League West, here's a link.

We're rating each closer on a tier, and here's the tiering system for the pre-season:

• Tier 1: World-class reliever, capable of putting up a season for the ages.
• Tier 2: Very good closer, both stable and effective.
• Tier 3: Average closer, may be lacking either stability or effectiveness.
• Tier 4: Poor closer, either completely ineffective but stable, or very unstable.

Washington Nationals: Rafael Soriano

The big closer news from the past week is Rafael Soriano (finally) signing a two-year, $28 million deal with the Washington Nationals, ostensibly to be their new closer. Soriano had been linked to the Tigers and a few other teams, but the Nationals ponied up the big bucks to bring him on. It's very likely that he displaces former closers Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard ... in fact GM Mike Rizzo said as much when introducing Soriano in a press conference.

Soriano brings closer experience and, best of all, real skill to the Nationals, who now have a pretty scary bullpen. After a dismal 2011 with the Yankees, one that included DL time, Soriano did well as the only non-Mariano Rivera full-time closer for the Bombers since about 1996. He saved 42 games, and did so posting a 2.26 ERA and 24.7% strikeout rate. Not too bad.

The minor problem here is that Soriano probably wasn't as effective as he looked in 2012. FIP (or Fielding Independent Pitching) says that Soriano didn't do the strikeout-walk-homer thing quite as well as his ERA indicated, giving him a 3.32 FIP for the season -- a big difference. Soriano benefitted from a great LOB% (88%), which helped him limit runs despite a high walk rate.

Still, Soriano was paid a lot of money to be the last line of defense for the Nationals, and we should expect him to thrive in the ninth. He's not a top-tier closer at this point, but he is likely to have a good season, especially outside of the tough environment of Yankee Stadium and the AL East.

Projected Tier: Tier 2 (moderate-to-high effectiveness, high cost to bring in / stability)

Next in line: Tyler Clippard or Drew Storen

Atlanta Braves: Craig Kimbrel

I wrote quite a bit about Craig Kimbrel in an earlier edition of Shutdown Corner, and the news hasn't changed in the past two weeks.

He's the best closer in baseball.

He's coming off what may have been the best season by a closer in modern history.

He strikes out everybody.

The only question with Kimbrel is whether he'll look like a "normal" closer in 2013, or if he's got another season of sheer dominance left in his right arm. I'm guessing that it will be something in between 2012 and a regular elite closer season. But it's unlikely, especially with Aroldis Chapman moving to the starting rotation, that any closer is as good a bet as Kimbrel.

Projected Tier: Tier 1 (coming off an world-class season, no sign of slowing down)

Next in line: Jonny Venters

Philadelphia Phillies: Jonathan Papelbon

Again, I waxed poetic about the power of Papelbon two weeks ago, and precious little has changed since then. Jon was very consistent (for the most part) in his time with Boston, and little changed in a move to Philly. He threw 70 high-quality innings, striking out a beastly 32.4% of batters faced and racking up just a 2.44 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. While a higher percentage of his fly balls left the park, he's dealt with pitching in hitters' parks before, and this didn't seem to slow him down much in terms of FIP (2.89).

Papelbon already has 257 saves in just seven years closing, which is remarkable. It speaks to his consistency and durability in a position not known for either. Homers and age threaten to bring down this bastion of beatdowns, but I think there's at least another high-end season waiting in the wings for Paps.

Projected Tier: Tier 2 (high reliability, high performance, age could be an issue)

Next in line: Antonio Bastardo

New York Mets: Frank Francisco

Last season, the New York Mets bullpen was pretty ugly. Frank Francisco, who suffered through injuries and ineffectiveness, was pretty ugly too. Frank^2 did score 23 saves in just 48 games, which isn't too shabby, but his ERA of 5.53 and WHIP of 1.61 made things pretty scary. Worst of all, Francisco had surgery in December to remove a bone spur from his pitching elbow, so he may need time to recover from the surgery.

Dan Syzmborski's ZiPS projection system sees Francisco as a reasonable option, posting a 3.78 ERA with a 25.6% strikeout rate, which would be a nice improvement from his 2012. Me, I'm not quite so bullish. Bobby Parnell is probably the better reliever at this point, and he isn't dealing with elbow surgery issues. Much like Ryan Madson in Anaheim, I think that Francisco will get the manager's benefit of the doubt if he starts the season healthy, but by the end of the season the younger arm (in this case Parnell) will own the ninth.

Projected Tier: Tier 4 (low reliability, low-to-medium performance, stiff competition)

Next in line: Bobby Parnell

Miami Marlins: Steve Cishek

Though the Marlins are projected to be one of the worst teams in baseball history next season, they actually are pretty set at the closer position. Steve Cishek inherited the job last season, and acquitted himself fairly well. He only notched 15 saves in his 68 appearances, but he posted a 2.69 ERA and a career-high 24.7% strikeout rate.

Cishek has a career 2.57 ERA and 2.85 FIP, and does two things very, very well. Cishek gets strikeouts at a serious clip (24.3% over his career), and he keeps the ball in the park (0.29 HR/9 over his career). Walks can be an issue -- I know, stop me if you've heard this before about a closer -- but if his walk rate is closer to his 2011 performance than his 2012 performance, he'll be a very solid option in the ninth.

He, along with Giancarlo Stanton, might be the only solid pieces on this Marlins team.

Projected Tier: Tier 3 (moderate performance, little competition, awful team)

Next in line: Ryan Webb (?)

As always, check out @CloserNews on Twitter for up-to-the-minute closer updates, and find me at @bgrosnick for everything baseball. Shutdown Corner will return next week with a look at the AL East.

All data from FanGraphs.

---

Shutdown Corner: AL West Closer Roundup

For the next six weeks, Shutdown Corner will be reviewing the closer situations for each division in baseball, one by one. I'll give you a brief breakdown of who the likely stopper is for each team, a little bit of statistical info, a projected tier to consider when drafting your stopper, and a name or two of who might be in line to pick up saves should the projected fireman falter.

And for what it's worth, here's the tier system I'll be using, pre-season:

• Tier 1: World-class reliever, capable of putting up a season for the ages.
• Tier 2: Very good closer, both stable and effective.
• Tier 3: Average closer, may be lacking either stability or effectiveness.
• Tier 4: Poor closer, either completely ineffective but stable, or very unstable.

Texas Rangers: Joe Nathan

Joe Nathan revitalized his career with a powerful 2012 performance in Texas, during which he saved 37 games and re-established himself as a top-tier closer. Nathan's command seems to have come back following a 2010 out of baseball and a weak 2011, and the veteran struck out 30.4% while only walking 5.1%, which is actually a career low. He is entering his age-38 season, which means that his skills could fall off in a hurry if his arm goes, but recent performance says that he could still be solid.

The Rangers did go out and sign another once-mighty closer coming off injury: Joakim Soria. Soria won't be back until May, at the earliest, and will look to recover his command after Tommy John surgery. If Soria's very sharp AND the Rangers are out of contention (not too likely), then the Rangers may look to move Nathan at the trade deadline. But I expect Joe to be a powerful weapon at the end of the Rangers' 'pen for the entire season, and a nice pickup for any fantasy squad.

Projected Tier: Tier 2 (high effectiveness, minor concerns about age, park and competition)

Next in line: Joakim Soria

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Ryan Madson

Before the 2011-2012 offseason, things were looking pretty good for Ryan Madson. Coming off a very effective 2011 as closer for the Phillies, in which he saved 32 games, posted a 2.37 ERA, and proved that performance was no fluke with an underlying 2.25 FIP. But as the offseason wore on, Madson wound up with one a one-year contract with the Reds, for what was perceived to be much less than his market value. Then, before appearing in a single regular-season game, Madson blew out his UCL and missed the whole season with Tommy John surgery.

Madson may be ready to return at the beginning of the 2013 season, but he also may not. But when he's ready, I expect him to get the first look at closing for the Halos. While Ernesto Frieri, last year's closer, is still on the roster and lurking, I expect Mike Scioscia to give Madson first crack at the ninth, given his past resume. Frieri struck out a host of hitters in 2012, posting a sick 36.4% strikeout rate, but he gave up too many homers (nine) to make the Angels very comfortable.

Unfortunately, pitchers like Madson who return from Tommy John surgery tend to struggle in their first season back. Command, especially, can be tough to recover in the first season, so I'd expect that Madson won't pitch anything like his 2011 self right away. Given this -- and the fact that the fireballing Frieri is waiting in the wings -- you'd either want to handcuff Frieri to any draft of Madson, or avoid him altogether, in my book.

Projected Tier: Tier 4 (coming off major surgery, stiff competition from Ernesto Frieri)

Next in line: Ernesto Frieri

Oakland Athletics: Grant Balfour

Boy, oh boy, did Ryan Cook look good in his 71 games in 2012. But when 2013 starts up, it's most likely that Grant Balfour will be back as the first option to close in the Oakland bullpen. Balfour, a veteran strikeout artist, has been pretty consistent since his 2008 return to a full-time bullpen role with the Rays. Balfour has a career strikeout rate of 26.4%, a critical skill for a high-leverage reliever.

And yet, I really don't expect Grant to finish the season as A's closer. If the Athletics repeat their 2012 winning ways, the team might hold on to him and keep their 'pen strength high going into the playoffs. But, more likely, I see the team dealing Balfour before his contract expires at the end of season, with young fireballer Ryan Cook assuming the ninth inning duties. If you draft Balfour, have Cook on standby, in case of a slump or deal.

Projected Tier: Tier 3 (moderate-to-high effectiveness, moderate likelihood of eventual trade)

Next in line: Ryan Cook

Seattle Mariners: Tom Wilhelmsen

One of the best bullpen stories in 2012 was the emergence of Mariners closer Tom Wilhelmsen. Despite being out of baseball entirely between 2005 and 2009, Wilhelmsen climbed through the Mariners organization to become the team's closer in 2012. He posted 29 saves despite not even earning the full-time closer position until early June. He even got in on a six-pitcher no-hitter, putting a nice bow on his narrative.

The Bartender serves up a nasty fastball-curveball combination, and it helps him get the strikeouts that are so critical to a closer's success. In 2012, Wilhelmsen logged a 26.7% K-rate, buoyed by a decent 8.9% BB-rate, which isn't half bad. Best of all, Wilhelmsen is cost-effective and isn't really challenged by any other arms in the Seattle bullpen -- meaning that he's likely to keep his closer status all season long.

While some draftniks may be put off by Wilhelmsen's late-career rise to stopper status, I'm not one of those people. I expect him to be very solid in 2013.

Projected Tier: Tier 2 (high stability, high-to-moderate effectiveness)

Next in line: Carter Capps (?)

Houston Astros: Jose Veras

There's not much in the way of proven late-inning relievers these days in Houston, which isn't a great sign. Sure, the bullpen is probably the last concern of a rebuilding club, but the Astros' impending move to the AL West means tougher competition, and shorter outings for their admittedly weak rotation. The Astros will lean on their young bullpen, and especially new recruit Jose Veras, who's in line to close.

Veras has been pretty good these past two seasons, spending 2011 with the Pirates and 2012 with the Brewers. In each season, Veras's performance was pretty similar: huge strikeout numbers (25.9% and 26.3% strikeout rates), terrible walk rates (11.2% and 13.3%) that led to pretty decent ERA totals (3.80 and 3.63). 2013 will be Veras's age-32 season, so while it's unlikely we'll see big-time improvement, there are no outstanding indicators that his performance will tank either.

But if Veras is as good as he could be, he'll have a "proven closer" tag to him, and that will make him an attractive trade target by the deadline. The Astros aren't a competitive team yet, and they'll look to move him for value, the same way they have with Mark Melancon, Brett Myers, and Wilton Lopez in the past. Don't expect him to finish his season in Houston.

Projected Tier: Tier 3 (high strikeout totals, high initial stability, high likelihood of eventual trade)

Next in line: Josh Fields (?)

All stats from FanGraphs.

---

Shutdown Corner: Old Closers

Hello, fantasy players and baseball fanatics. I'm Bryan Grosnick, and you may remember me from last season's Injury Watch column here at RotoAuthority. I also write about non-fantasy baseball at a host of other sites, including Beyond the Box Score, The Platoon Advantage, and Amazin' Avenue. But, enough about me. I've been tasked with filling the impressive shoes of the talented Dan Mennella, who handled the Closer Watch updates with aplomb at RotoAuthority last season.

On Fridays, now you can expect a new closer-focused column: Shutdown Corner. At SC, I'll be breaking down the fantasy implications for all late-inning relievers, and I'll be taking a slightly sabermetric tack. We'll use observation, inside info, and the best advanced stats to help you make the best decisions about who to draft, trade, add, and drop for your fantasy bullpen.

So, to get us started, I'm going to pick the top five closers who hold the same position they did last season, with the same team. These are the guys that you (probably) can rely on to give you a host of saves, just as long as they stay healthy and effective. But I see these five as pretty safe bets.

#5 - Tom Wilhelmsen, Seattle Mariners

You can consider this my "dark horse" candidate, but Tom Wilhelmsen was quite a revelation as the Mariners' closer in 2012. The former bartender logged 29 saves in 73 games, posting a 2.50 ERA and 2.89 FIP. A major contributor to his success: a nifty 26.7% strikeout percentage.

So why Wilhelmsen as a solid pick for 2013? Well, that strikeout rate played in both his limited 2011 and in 2012. And I don't see any reason for the Mariners to replace him. Perhaps they could move him in a trade if the price is right, but Wilhelmsen is both cheap and effective, someone that the Mariners would enjoy keeping. He'll be a nice fit for any fantasy squad.

#4 - Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals

I don't know about you, but to me it seems that Jason Motte has been the Cardinals' closer for years now. In truth, 2012 was the first full season with Motte working the ninth inning, and it was his best to date. Motte scored 42 saves while striking out over a batter per inning, posting a 2.75 ERA. Homers were his downfall, as Motte gave up nine in just 72 innings of work. But even so, they didn't kill his fantasy line, and his rate of fly balls to home runs was high enough that it could drop for the upcoming season. If so, he could be even better than before.

Despite the Cardinals having other live arms (such as fireballer Trevor Rosenthal) in the bullpen mix for next season, Motte has done everything he's needed to do to hang on to his spot as stopper. His combination of relative youth, strikeout stuff, and cost control make him a valuable real-world closer, and one who's likely to be very solid in fantasy for next season.

#3 - Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers

Did you expect Joe Nathan to return to his pre-Tommy John form so quickly? Or ever? Me neither. During the first season back from TJ, a pitcher usually struggles to regain command and control. And Nathan wasn't exactly his old self in 2011, striking out fewer, walking more, and giving up a host of homers. 

But 2012, Nathan's first as a Ranger, was a different story. His control was stellar, walking just 5.1% of batters faced, a career low. His K% rebounded as well, to 30.4% in his 64 1/3 innings. So despite his advancing age, Nathan looks as sharp as he's had in years. He managed 37 saves in 2012, and I think that you could expect more of the same this season.

#2 - Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies

When the Phillies laid out $50 million over four years to sign Jon Papelbon away from Fenway Park, they were expecting someone consistent (and excellent) to hold down the ninth inning. One year into the deal, initial returns are very good. Papelbon had a season very much in line with his career norms and the Phillies' expectations, notching 38 saves.

It's worth noting that, while Papelbon has managed over 30 saves in every season since 2006, this season was a slight improvement over most of his career numbers. Almost everything seemed to break his way, from K% (32.4%), to ground ball percentage (41.5%), to left-on-base percentage (83.8%).

The only real concern for JP is the longball, especially in cozy Citizens Bank Park. In his first year with Philadelphia, Papelbon gave up homers on 12.1% of fly balls, which is a career high. So long as Jonathan can keep the ball in the park at this rate or lower, while still racking up the Ks and limiting walks, he'll be worth that massive contract.

... at least for one more year.

#1 - Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves

It's rare for a closer to have a "historical" season, but that's exactly what Craig Kimbrel of the Atlanta Braves did in 2012. In addition to posting over 40 saves for the second straight season (42 if you're counting, and I am), Kimbrel struck out an unreasonably large amount of hitters. To be specific, Kimbrel fanned 116 in just a hair under 63 innings. By strikeout percentage, that means Kimbrel fanned 50.2% of the batters he faced, or just over half!

Here's a quick list of all the relievers who've put up better strikeout percentages in baseball history:

That's right, no one. The next guy up on the leaderboard is Eric Gagne's 44.8% K-rate from his otherworldly 2003 season. Kimbrel just annihilated the old record. And when you post a strikeout rate like that, the other stats just fall into place. 1.01 ERA? Check. 0.65 WHIP? Check.

You cannot stop him. You can only hope to contain him. Craig Kimbrel probably won't be this good again in 2013, because, really, no one ever has been this good before. But he'll still likely be the best closer in baseball for a second straight season. The only question you should have is will he be worth a premium pick in your draft, even though he's only a closer.

Throughout the 2013 season, you'll be able to find all sorts of articles about late-inning relievers here at Shutdown Corner, posting each Friday. But if that isn't quite enough for you, don't forget to check out the @closernews Twitter feed. I'll be helping to manage that feed, which will help you stay up-to-date on all news related to your favorite stoppers. Oh, and you can also follow me at @bgrosnick, if you're so inclined. 

All stats come from FanGraphs.

---

Closers: What We Learned In 2012

This season must be considered yet another vindication for the don't-pay-for-saves crowd. With so much bullpen turnover in 2012, particularly in the early going, there's a good chance that any owner who drafted a closer -- regardless of the round -- got burned. To wit, here's a quick rundown of each team's Opening Day stopper compared to who finished the season in the ninth:

AL East
Rays: Joel Peralta - Fernando Rodney
Orioles: Jim Johnson - Johnson
Red Sox: Alfredo Aceves - Andrew Bailey
Yankees: Mariano Rivera - Rafael Soriano
Blue Jays: Sergio Santos - Casey Janssen

AL Central
White Sox: Hector Santiago - Addison Reed
Tigers: Jose Valverde - Valverde
Royals: Jonathan Broxton - Greg Holland
Indians: Chris Perez - Perez
Twins: Matt Capps - Glen Perkins

AL West
Angels: Jordan Walden - Ernesto Frieri
Athletics: Grant Balfour - Balfour (with changes in between)
Mariners: Brandon League - Tom Wilhelmsen
Rangers: Joe Nathan - Nathan

NL East
Nationals: Drew Storen - Storen (with changes in between)
Braves: Craig Kimbrel - Kimbrel
Mets: Frank Francisco - Francisco (with changes in between)
Phillies: Jonathan Papelbon - Papelbon
Marlins: Heath Bell - Steve Cishek

NL Central
Reds: Sean Marshall - Chapman
Pirates: Joel Hanrahan - Hanrahan
Cubs: Carlos Marmol - Marmol (with changes in between)
Astros: Brett Myers - Wilton Lopez
Cardinals: Jason Motte - Motte
Brewers: John Axford - Axford (changes in between)

NL West
Giants: Brian Wilson - Sergio Romo/Javier Lopez
Rockies: Rafael Betancourt - Betancourt
Padres: Huston Street - Street (with changes in between)
Dodgers: Javy Guerra - League
Diamondbacks: J.J. Putz - Putz

As you can see, the odds of a reliever going wire-to-wire  as his team's closer aren't very good. Of our 30 Opening Day closers, only 10 of them -- Johnson, Valverde, Perez, Nathan, Kimbrel, Papelbon, Hanrahan, Motte, Betancourt, and Putz -- made it through the season without either being demoted or seeing time on the disabled list at some point. I'm not very good at the maths, but by my calculations, 66.6% (with a bar over the last six, since it goes on for infinity) of our Opening Day closers lost their jobs at some point. This is why most fantasy pundits recommend holding off on closers till the early or mid-teen rounds in a 12-team draft. In fact, the late-teen rounds might even be the savvier value play for closers; I don't mind bragging that I nabbed Johnson in the 18th round in my primary league.

However, what makes this debate interesting is that it's not necessarily cut-and-dry. Those who dare to gamble an early-round pick on a stud closer are sometimes rewarded. For example, coming off a brilliant 2011, Kimbrel was just as good, if not better, this season. He was popped in the seventh round of my league this year, and there's no way around the fact that he was actually a bargain in that round. As of Tuesday morning, Yahoo! ranks him as the 17th best player in all of fantasy this season, while ESPN's weird algorithm pegs him as 10th best -- no, not merely the 10th best pitcher; the 10th best player overall. Elsehwere, Papelbon was also something of a value pick, trumping his ADP of 100 by a healthy margin as he pulled in at No. 44 in Yahoo! leagues and No. 43 in ESPN leagues.

And therein lies the rub. Value can be extracted from early- and mid-round closers on draft day -- but it's an extremely risky proposition. I'll look at that in a separate post. 

Of course, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention this season's most valuable closer relative to his ADP: Rodney. This year, as is the case most years, the closers who yielded the most value are the ones who went undrafted and then managed to tear off 20 or 30 saves -- or even more than that. Rodney became the patron saint of that set in 2012, rivaling Kimbrel's ranking in Yahoo! and ESPN while going largely undrafted in most leagues. Chapman fell under the same umbrella, as well. It's no knock on Kimbrel, but in terms of fantasy, any owner worth his salt would rather have spent his Kimbrel pick elsewhere and then nabbed Rodney or Chapman. It's not that simple, obviously. One must be quick to the draw on the waiver wire in such cases, and even then, no one could have foreseen Rodney's brilliance. In Chapman's case, he was mired behind a very good reliever in Marshall on Cincinnati's depth chart; who predicted that Marshall would be out of the job by mid-May?

And so it goes.

So, what did we learn? We re-learned that it's most prudent not to (over)pay for saves, but we also learned that as is often true in life, those bold enough to defy convention are sometimes rewarded.

---

Closer Updates: Nats, Padres, Dodgers, Reds

As with last week, there's no shortage of bullpen shakeups to cover this week. Before we get down and dirty, your weekly friendly reminder to follow @closernews on Twitter, especially if you find it hard to respect me for not telling you the truth or not telling you face to face.

Nationals
Tyler Clippard's respectable season numbers (3.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) are a testament to how well he pitched prior to this month, because he has suffered through a nightmarish September: 9.64 ERA, three losses, one blown save. Clippard's tough stretch has culminated in a demotion, with Drew Storen being named Washington's primary full-time closer by manager Davey Johnson. Obviously, Storen, now owned in 61% of Yahoo! leagues, is a must-add if he has somehow slipped through the cracks in your league. Johnson said he'll still mix in Ty-Clipp, so he's worth holding onto if you're desperate, but I'd be surprised if he earned more than one save the rest of the way.

Padres
Finally, Huston Street has made his long-awaited return from an August calf strain. The right-hander earned a save in his first outing back on Sunday, although he coughed up a run along the way. Even still, the guess here is that Street will be the Friars' sole closer the rest of the way. The team was very cautious in monitoring his comeback, presumably because they wanted to minimize the chance of a possible re-injury. With that in mind, I have to think Street is essentially 100% healthy. Luke Gregerson owners might want to hold on to see how San Diego's next save chance shapes up, but I'm also not averse to cutting LG before then if someone better is sitting on the wire.

Dodgers
Kenley Jansen has looked sharp in three outings since returning from the irregular heartbeat that sidelined him for a few weeks. The only problem is, none of those outings has been a save situation. I predicted last week that the Dodgers would shoehorn Jansen back into the ninth after only an outing or so, but clearly they are taking a more conservative approach, allowing Brandon League to soak up a couple more save opps. The Dodgers are close enough in the wild card race that they can't just put up the white flag, but will that result in Don Mattingly erring toward preserving the status quo? It seems that way to me.

Reds
Aroldis Chapman returned to the hill in a non-save situation on Saturday after missing nearly two weeks due to shoulder fatigue. The question now is whether Chapman is now available for regular closing duty. My guess is no. The Reds have already clinched their postseason berth and have little reason to push the fireballer other than to tune up for the playoffs -- but that goal can be accomplished in any number of situations. I think Chapman might see another save chance just because the Reds might want to see how he responds in that setting, but Jonathan Broxton owners should hold on.

Mets
Frank Francisco hasn't pitched since Sept. 16 due to elbow tendinitis, but the Mets insist they're not ready to shut down the right-hander for the season's balance. Francisco's poor season had already stifled his ownership rates, but he's now rostered in just 58% of Yahoo! leagues, and I don't blame owners for having little patience. Hold onto Double-F if you have the room and need saves, but don't torture yourself over your decision on this one. Jon Rauch is the guy you want to snap up if you're scrounging for Mets saves.

---

Closer Updates: Dodgers, Rangers, Padres

Now that I'm back from my weekend dead-arm sabbatical, please remember to follow @closernews on Twitter for breaking updates on all the bullpen situations. That being said, three's a lot to address this week, so I'll try to keep 'em short and sweet.

Dodgers
Kenley Jansen has apparently gotten a clean bill of health and is expected to return to Los Angeles' bullpen tonight. Despite a several-week layoff, I'd expect him to return to closing after one outing, if not sooner, so Brandon League owners should be ready to cut away. In fact, at this point of the season, depending on where you are in the standings, I don't mind making that move even before KJ is back on the hill, which I typically don't advise. End of the season calls for bold flavors moves, eh?

Rangers
Joe Nathan's surgically repaired 37-year-old right arm has generally held up surprisingly well this season (surprising to me, at least), but he was unavailable over the weekend due to a so-called dead arm period, his second such hiatus. He's supposed to be ready to return on Tuesday, but it's one worth watching. Meanwhile, Mike Adams and Alexi Ogando are both dinged, so if you want to foray into this mess, Koji Uehara is your guy.

Padres
Luke Gregerson owners who have been dreading the impending return of Huston Street may get a reprieve after all. Details have been sketchy, but Street is apparently fit to return ... yet he hasn't. Perhaps the Friars are shelving Street because they know he's rickety and he's under contract for a couple more years. Not to mention, Gregerson has done a fine job in Street's absence (with an odd assist or two from Tom Layne et al). LG is well worth holding onto until Street is on the mound again in a Major League game.

Reds
Aroldis Chapman says his fatigued shoulder is feeling better, but neither he nor the Reds have provided a firm timetable as to when a potential return could happen. The guess here is that both pitcher and team will want him to see some game action before the playoffs get underway, but he could take off another week or 10 days and still make that happen. Till then, Jonathan Broxton is the optimal add, but since he's not allowed to pitch on more than two consecutive days, Sean Marshall is worth a look if you're scrounging for every last save you can find.

Angels
Ernesto Frieri owners were dealt a double-punch to the gut this weekend, when the previously immortal right-hander blew a save in very un-Nasty-like fashion and then saw Kevin Jepsen convert one the next night. The former isn't a huge concern, per se; even the best closers blow saves. But no one would blame Frieri owners if the timing of Jepsen's unexpected save had them a little uneasy. Not to fear, apparently, as Frieri was just getting a breather. He should be good to go now, having rested on Sunday and Monday.

---

Closers: Reds, Dodgers, Padres

If you think Josh Willingham would look great in the middle of your lineup, be sure to follow @closernews on Twitter.

Reds
It seemed almost inevitable that Aroldis Chapman wouldn't get through the season without some kind of health scare. That may be an unfair observation, because it's probably true of all Major League pitchers. But since the Reds were pretty clearly divided about how to be deploy Chapman earlier in the season, and with the lefty regularly dialing up his hellacious fastball into triple-digits, I always felt like the other shoe could drop for him at any time.

That time might have arrived now, as Chapman's past two outings have been ugly, marked by a lack of control and the always scary diminished velocity. The Reds are concerned about it; manager (and noted arm-shredder) Dusty Baker said as much after Monday night's game in which Chapman issued three walks in only two-thirds of an inning.

I don't want to speculate on what, if anything, is exactly wrong with Chapmania; it's entirely possible that he just had a couple of bad outings back-to-back. But that does seem unlikely considering the velocity dip, and since the Reds are basically on cruise control en route to the postseason, it'd be surprising if they didn't significantly scale back Chapman's workload, or shut him down altogether, for the remainer of the regular season.

Chapman owners should be worried, but a frustration cut would be wildly premature here. Instead, stash primary setup man Jonathan Broxton. I'm a bit of a Sean Marshall fanboy, and I'd love to see him get a shot at redemption after an early-season demotion from the closer's role, but my instinct here is that if Chapman is indeed sidelined, Brox will get first shot at the ninth inning. The husky right-hander has pitched exclusively in the eighth inning since joining Cincinnati, and though Marshall is the better pitcher at this point in their respective careers by virtue of his ability to miss more bats, Baker doesn't strike me as the type to log onto Fangraphs and compare SwStr rates. Plus, in fairness, there's something to be said for preserving a good left-handed reliever for a tough lefty hitter.

Anyway, this one should be watched closely. Hopefully, Chapman is fine, but even if he is, my sense is that the Reds will want to take a conservative approach with him, so in the meantime, Broxton is worth snapping up.

Dodgers
When we last spoke, Kenley Jansen's injury status (irregular heartbeat) was still very much in the air. The possibilities ranged from "out for the season" to "back shortly." The update since then lands firmly in between those two extremes, with Jansen slated to return to game action on Monday. From a long-term perspective, this is Jansen's third episode related to his heart in the past calendar year, so fantasy types should certainly consider it a red flag for 2013 and beyond, but at least his current owners who are still in contention will get a couple weeks' worth of production out of him to end the season.

Old friend Brandon League, who actually lost his closing job with the Mariners before being traded to the Dodgers, has assumed ninth-inning duties in Los Angeles in Jansen's stead. He's not having a very strong year, but saves are saves, so if you need 'em, League will continue to be worth an add over the next week if he's still languishing on your league's wire. Ronald Belisario appeared to be in the closing mix with League shortly after Jansen went down, but League has emerged the sole interim closer. Perhaps it was because of The Experience.

Padres
San Diego closer Huston Street, on the disabled list since Aug. 10 due to a calf strain, threw a simulated game without incident on Monday and is slated for another one on Wednesday. Assuming that one goes well, he could be activated shortly thereafter, perhaps sometime around the weekend. Luke Gregerson has done a nice job filling in for Street, but Street should get his old gig back once he's healthy. As always, though, it'd be prudent for Gregerson owners to hold on till Street is back in uniform and pitching effectively. Street, after all, is prone to injury and already suffered one setback while on rehab assignment.

---

Closers: Dodgers, Padres, Red Sox

For all the latest on closers and their potential rehab setbacks, be sure to follow @closernews on Twitter.

Dodgers
It appears that the only obstacle to a long stretch of dominance for Kenley Jansen may be his own health. Having claimed closing duties early in the season, the hard-throwing right-hander was authoring a terrific campaign, sitting on a 2.54 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 25 saves and 86 strikeouts in just 56 2/3 innings through last week. Then, out of nowhere, the bad news broke that Jansen would be out indefinitely after suffering a recurrence of the heart condition that sidelined him for a month last season and for a spell during Spring Training this year.

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly has been noncommital about naming a proper replacement for Jansen, saying that Ronald Belisario and Brandon League, both right-handers, would share closing duties in Jansen's absence. It's only been a week since Jansen went down, so it might be too soon to infer much from a small sample of games, but the Dodgers have been involved in several close games in that time, and there are some interesting trends to note. While Belisario is enjoying a better season than League and was called upon for the first post-Jansen save chance, he has since been used in situations not typically reserved for closers, including pitching the top of the ninth with his team trailing on Sunday and then making a one-out appearance in the seventh inning on Monday that eventually led to a League save.

So while these small-sample trends make League the better add than Belisario at the moment, I don't think we can say this one has necessarily been settled, especially considering Mattingly's original declaration at the outset.

Of course, all of this may be moot depending on what happens with Jansen. The Dodgers were expected to make an announcement as soon as Tuesday as to whether he would return at some point this season. My initial instinct is to guess that he'll be shut down, considering he's dealing with such a serious medical condition, but that is mere speculation. In the meantime, League is where I'd look first for a replacement, and then to Belisario.

Padres
With Huston Street's DL stint creeping up on a month, his owners got some bad news over the weekend. Street apparently suffered something of a mild setback during his rehab from a calf strain, and there's still no timetable in place for his return. With about a month remaining on the season's calendar, there's still time for Street to return and accrue a handful of saves for his owners, but the window is closing.

I said when Street went down that the Padres probably wouldn't be in a huge rush to get him back on the mound -- because of Street's recently signed extension and the team's place in the standings -- and that appears to be the case. This can only be a good thing for owners of interim closer Luke Gregerson, who should see a handful more save chances before Street elbows him back into a setup role. Gregerson blew a save chance on Monday and has allowed runs in back-to-back outings, but I'm thinking he should get another go-round before Bud Black considers making a(nother) change. There's only so short a leash you can place on your closing candidates before you've cycled through them all.

Hold onto Gregerson if you own him now, and if he's still kicking around on your league's wire (only owned in 18% of Yahoo! leagues), give him a long look if you're in need of saves. He should have the gig for at least another week and perhaps more, and he should do a fine job.

Red Sox
Short of an official announcement, it was nonetheless all but certain last week that Andrew Bailey had overtaken Alfredo Aceves as Red Sox closer following Aceves' brutal August and team-imposed three-game suspension. But just in case there was any lingering doubt, the Red Sox since then announced that Aceves would be starting over the season's final month, clearing the way for Bailey to man the ninth inning, just as they'd planned when they acquired him last offseason from the Athletics.

I will admit, I had this one wrong. When Bailey was nearing his return, Aceves was still pitching capably and the Red Sox were still on the fringes of playoff contention. What would be their motivation to make a switch? Well, Aceves played his cards about as poorly as one can, and Boston's season went completely off the rails.

Bailey is owned in only 62% of Yahoo! leagues, so be sure to snap him up if he's fallen through the cracks in your league. It's hard to say whether he's back to his old form considering he's made only eight appearances so far this season since returning from the disabled list, but the upside is enough to warrant the benefit of the doubt. Now, if only the Sox could get him a save chance ...

---

Closers: Red Sox, Padres

As soon as you're done with your three-game suspension, be sure to check out @closernews on Twitter for the up-to-the-minute updates on breaking bullpen situations.

Red Sox
Andrew Bailey's tough debut season in Boston might actually be ending on a high note. Alfredo Aceves? Not so much. Bailey, only a couple weeks back from a season-long stint on the disabled list, appears poised to overtake Aceves as Red Sox closer.

In a very small sample of just 5 1/3 innings through Monday's action, Bailey's peripherals have been underwhelming. But he's mostly managed to keep runs off the board, posting a 1.69 ERA. That's not enough of a sample for us to definitively declare that the old Bailey has returned, but often times, perception is reality in the bullpen's version of 'Game of Thrones,' and the fact is that Bailey's surface stats indicate that he is back on top of his game.

Aceves, meanwhile, has seen an otherwise decent season go completely off the rails over the past month. In fact, as recently as the tail end of Bailey's minor league rehab stint, I touted Aceves as likely to hold onto his job, what with there being little incentive for an out-of-contention team to demote an adequate closer. But since then, Aceves' ERA has jumped from 3.57 to 4.60. Since Aug. 1, the right-hander has posted a 10.24 ERA in 9 2/3 innings of work, with 10 strikeouts, 13 hits and four walks. Oof. The timing, of course, couldn't have been worse, what with Bailey -- whom the team anointed its closer of the future when it acquired him in an offseason trade with the Athletics -- looming as his rehab stint wound down. Then, Aceves' on-field frustrations culminated in off-field mishap -- some kind of door-slamming altercation with manager Bobby Valentine -- which resulted in a team-imposed three-game suspension. When it rains it pours, Alfredo.

Valentine, as he is wont to do, has been coy about Bailey's and Aceves' respective roles once the latter's disciplinary sabbatical has run its course (he should be back in uniform Tuesday night). But the tea leaves all point toward Bailey seeing the lion's share, if not all, of the team's save chances for the season's balance. He wields knockout stuff when he's on top of his game, and as mentioned earlier, Boston acquired him last offseason with designs on having him pitch the ninth, a role he manned capably for the A's in his three seasons with them. Aceves, on the other hand, was thrust into closing mostly by chance when Bailey went down with his injury and Mark Melancon was demoted to the minors after a horrible start to the season. In fact, Aceves is a former starter whom the Red Sox probably had pegged as a long reliever/emergency starter.

Finally, it's worth noting that the Red Sox are in reboot mode now since the trade that relieved them of Adrian Gonzalez's, Carl Crawford's and Josh Beckett's respective burdensome contracts, so the thinking here is that they'll probably be looking to put every player in his right place with an eye toward 2013. Bailey's place is almost certainly closing; Aceves' may be on another team, as he's clearly fallen out of favor.

Aceves owners should hold on till he's been activated and officially given the boot, but in the meantime, Bailey should be scooped up in all leagues. This situation shouldn't take more than a couple days to resolve itself.

Padres
Speaking of being done dirty, poor Dale Thayer learned that interim closerships apparently wait for no man, woman or child, as Friars manager Bud Black has suddenly taken a liking to Luke Gregerson in the ninth inning. LG first earned a save on Sunday while Thayer was still on the paternity list. Easy enough. But Dale-lightful was back in uniform on Monday, and with a save situation taking shape for the Padres in the latter innings of their tilt against the Braves, Black called upon Thayer to set up in the eighth before handing the ninth-inning save chance off to Gregerson, who converted. Interesting.

Gregerson's saga has been a weird one. He boasts "closer stuff" but has been passed over in favor of the journeyman Thayer for closing duties during both of Huston Street's DL stints this season. Well, "passed over" may not be an accurate way to phrase it. Recall that Gregerson was given first crack at closing for the Padres during Street's first DL stay, but he blew the save. Enter Thayer. When Street went down for a second time, there was no such opportunity to be had for Gregerson; the Padres simply handed over closing duties to Thayer.

So, why the aversion to Gregerson in the first place, and why have the Padres seemingly had a change of heart now? One fairly common response to the first question is that Gregerson's reliance on the arm-taxing slider renders him a less-than-ideal candidate to be pegged to the constraints of a narrowly defined role like closing, which could call for him to pitch three or sometimes four days in a row. However, he's pitched on three consecutive days four times this season, which isn't excessive but is plenty enough to prove the Padres aren't shy about doing it. Maybe the Padres felt like he didn't have the mental makeup to handle the gig after he blew the aforementioned save? And the second question of this mystery is equally perplexing. Perhaps the Friars simply realized that Gregerson is a better pitcher than Thayer? (he is)

In any event, all the debate may not amount to much. Street is expected to soon begin a minor league rehab stint, after which he should return to closing. In the meanwhile, Gregerson is a worth an add if you're duking it out for every last save you can get your hands on. Thayer owners should sit tight for one more save chance to see how it plays out, but if he's skipped over again, cut away.

---

Closers: Giants, Mets, Athletics

For all the latest breaking news on closer shakeups, be sure to follow @closernews, where temporary closer demotions quietly morph into permanent ones. 

Giants
We've seen a few shrewdly handled closer committees over the past couple years, two of which now belong to the Giants and manager Bruce Bochy, who deserves plenty of real-life credit for playing matchups toward the end of getting outs and winning games -- rather than being a slave to flimsily defined niche roles such as setup man and closer.

Real-life credit is fine and all, but Bochy's saber bullpen is not going to win him any friends in fantasy circles, as we fake gamers are sick of playing Whac-A-Mole with potential Giants closers. But unfortunately for those who are speculating for saves as the season's final month approaches, they'll have to look beyond San Francisco (unless willing to sacrifice any semblance of roster efficiency), as there looks to be no end in sight to the Giants' mix-and-match philosophy.

Here's the confusing "pattern" with which we have to work: Since July 31, Jeremy Affeldt has two saves, while Clay Hensley and Javier Lopez each have one. Both of Affeldt's saves spanned longer than one inning (1 1/3 and two). Hensley's and Lopez's saves were both of the one-out variety. Lethal setup man Sergio Romo, meanwhile, has none; ditto for ex-closer Santiago Casilla. Nothing is jumping out at me here from which I can confidently infer anything. While Affeldt looks to have had an early edge in the committee, Bochy's willingness to lift him from a save chance on Saturday night in favor of Hensley kind of tells us all that we need to know. No one is promised anything here.

My sense is that any yearly leaguer who is willing to dip his or her toes into these waters must be in contention and desperate to add saves or prevent a close competitor from accruing more of them. In which case, Affeldt is probably the place to start, but short of adding Lopez and Romo -- and perhaps even Hensley and Casilla -- there's bound to be plenty of frustration for owners who are out to mine saves from this bullpen. It's hard to fathom a scenario in which owning three relievers from the same 'pen is a net win for a fantasy roster (even two is pushing it), so perhaps it's best to leave this piecemeal arrangement alone.

Mets
In truth, the 2012 Mets could have had a weekly slot as one of the three featured bullpens in this column. Between Frank Francisco's perpetual mediocrity, Bobby Parnell's inability to seize a closing opportunity when one is presented to him, and Jon Rauch's Jon Rauchness, the Amazin's have plenty of options, but all are flawed in some way such that job security is always a concern, regardless of who's filling in or bailing out at a given moment.

Most recently, a red-hot Rauch was called upon to bail Francisco out of a couple of hairy situations, earning saves in both cases. Fantasy owners are all too familiar with Rauch, and the Mets too were apparently wary of looking too much into his recent run of success, as his unexpected saves didn't translate into any kind of role change. Parnell, similarly, ceded closing chores back to Francisco after being awarded the gig when Frank-Frank was on the DL in June and July.

With little to play for, uninspiring alternatives, and Francisco on the books for 2013, perhaps the Mets are simply disinclined to rock the boat now. Certainly, they would have been within their rights to make a full-hearted change at several junctures this season. With Francisco's ownership down to 62% in Yahoo! leagues, there's roughly one-third of you who have the opportunity to snap up a free closer off the wire right now. It seems woefully naive to point out the discrepancy between Francisco's 6.06 ERA and 3.76 SIERA, but I just did, so if you want to hang your hat on anything -- however glass-half-full it may be -- in hopes that there's some chance of improvement, there it is.

In the meanwhile, Rauch and Parnell are not worth stashing until I see something out of the Mets to suggest otherwise. With so few bats missed, Rauch's nice run may soon end -- and with it, his chances of vulturing some saves. And while I think Parnell has the chops to close, the Mets might not even consider him next in line.

Athletics
I have to admit: When the A's switched back from Ryan Cook to Grant Balfour as their closer for what they said would only be a couple of save chances, I didn't know what the heck to think in terms of laying out a sensible fantasy strategy. Cook had been so good before settling into a nasty post-break slump, and Balfour's career was seemingly on life support when he relinquished closing duties earlier in the season.

So far, it has paid off for the A's. While Cook's sabbatical has extended well beyond the original two save chances that were prescribed, Balfour has banked each of his first four save chances since reclaiming closing duties -- and Cook is showing modest signs of progress, going unscored upon in each of his past three outings.

Whether the A's will once again flip-flop when convenient remains to be seen, but my guess is they'll keep things as is. Age and experience aside, Balfour and Cook are strikingly similar pitchers. Balfour's peripheral line: 7.67 K/9, 3.51 BB/9, 36% GB rate, 3.76 SIERA. Cook's peripheral line: 8.94 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, 42% GB rate, 3.56 SIERA. If anything, Cook looks like a slightly better pitcher, but not by much, and unless Balfour slumps the way he did earlier in the season, the A's will probably look for (finally) some continuity.

---

Search Roto Authority

Custom Search

Roto Authority Mailing List

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Roto Authority Features

Recent Posts

Monthly Archives