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Closers
Who Closes In Pittsburgh If Dotel Is Traded?
As the closer on the last-place Pirates, Octavio Dotel appears a prime candidate to be traded in July. Evan Meek has closer-worthy numbers, but Joel Hanrahan has experience in the role. Who would get the nod if Dotel is dealt? We posed the question to beat writer Dejan Kovacevic, who covers the team for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. His answer:
Meek is very much in line to be the closer, even though Hanrahan, too, has been good. Better than the numbers would suggest in the case of the latter. That said, Dotel's club option for 2011 is just $4.5 million, which isn't a bad price even for the Pirates given how good he has been. Assuming Dotel is not traded, there is a strong chance the team will seriously consider exercising the option.
Meek seems the superior reliever to stash. Cleveland's Chris Perez might be another to tuck away, in the event Kerry Wood is traded. For all the latest closer developments, follow @closernews on Twitter.
Closer Report: Minnesota Twins
MARCH 9: The news that Nathan may need Tommy John surgery knocks him off draft boards for now. Guerrier, Rauch, and Mijares remain my favorites to replace him (in that order), with Pat Neshek and Jesse Crain two other names we can't rule out. If manager Ron Gardenhire tips his hand or the Twins add a proven closer, we'll be sure to update the situation on our Twitter account CloserNews.
MARCH 3: Twins closer Joe Nathan is still among the very best in the business. He's going in the seventh round, and the 40 saves, 2.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 75 Ks are worth it.
Nathan is 35, and he had offseason surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow. He doesn't seem to be off-track because of it, but it's important to know your backup options.
Matt Guerrier is one possibility, though he struck out only 5.5 per nine in '09. Jose Mijares hasn't been around as long, but he does throw a bit harder and whiffed a more appropriate 8.0 per nine. However, he's left-handed. The Twins also have Jon Rauch, who came on strong in his 15.6 innings for them and has closing experience. Guerrier wins out in terms of Baseball Prospectus' leverage stat, though the other two were close. If I had to pick one, it'd be Guerrier.
Closer Report: Los Angeles Angels
Brian Fuentes remains the Angels' closer, and the tenth round is pretty early for a guy who didn't pitch particularly well in 2009 and has decent backups in place.
The Halos committed big money to Fernando Rodney, but he's slated to be a setup man. Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times explains:
Rodney is expected to share setup duties with Scot Shields and Kevin Jepsen and close on a fill-in basis when Brian Fuentes is down.
Fuentes was relieved by Jepsen multiple times last season, with Mike Scioscia opting for a semi-job share arrangement in mid-September. Jepsen dealt with shoulder tendinitis that month, so he's been taking it easy this spring. Shields is coming off knee surgery.
Given Rodney's fastball, closing experience, and contract, he's the one you want. And though the Angels probably won't admit it, they could try to prevent Fuentes from reaching the 55 games finished he needs for his 2011 option to vest at $9MM. Unfortunately Rodney is currently going in the 18th round, a sign that those drafting don't realize he's not the closer. At that point in the draft you can still get established closers like Chad Qualls, Matt Capps, and Kerry Wood.
For all of our 2010 closer reports, click here. And be sure to follow our @CloserNews twitter page for instant updates on changes in closing situations.
Closer Report: Kansas City Royals
Royals closer Joakim Soria is currently being drafted in the 9th round. Given his ridiculous skills, that's a reasonable place to take him.
Who's behind Soria on the depth chart? Assuming Kyle Farnsworth goes to the rotation, I'd place Juan Cruz is second in line. Cruz had an awful 2009 amid a shoulder strain, but he still throws 94 and is earning $3.25MM. Should he fail to crack the rotation, Robinson Tejeda is another setup candidate (11.8 K/9 in 42 relief innings last year).
Closer Report: Detroit Tigers
Jose Valverde is clearly the Tigers' closer, as they committed two years and $14MM to him this winter. He's going in the 12th round currently, and he's probably a better choice than earlier picks Francisco Rodriguez and Francisco Cordero.
The Tigers have three hard-throwing relievers who could serve as Valverde's backup: Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry, and Daniel Schlereth. Zumaya is the favorite, and he says he's...wait for it...finally healthy. Since he comes from the right side, averages 95 mph, and has more big league experience, you'd have to put Perry third in line. All three need to show the necessary control for a late-inning role.
Closer Report: Cleveland Indians
Kerry Wood enters the 2010 season as the Indians' closer. He's being drafted in the 21st round, which presumably reflects his past health issues and the possibility of a midseason trade.
I'm not too worried about Wood's health, as he managed at least 55 innings in each of the last two seasons. One consideration is that Wood's $11MM option for 2011 vests with 55 games finished, and the Indians would probably prefer for that not to happen. Wood finished 50 in '09 and 56 in '08. The Indians can't get too cute with Wood's role or DL trips, though, or they'll risk a grievance.
There's a good chance Wood is traded midseason, and there's no way to predict whether he'd close for his new team. While Tony Sipp and Jensen Lewis could merit consideration as his replacement, Chris Perez is my current favorite. Perez, who came over in the Mark DeRosa trade, had a 10.7 K/9 in 57 innings. He'll need to improve his walk and home run rates, however.
Closer Report: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox will once again employ Bobby Jenks as their closer. He's being drafted in the 14th round, which isn't too pricey. Jenks had sharp peripherals in 2009, aside from a 1.5 HR/9. He did post the highest flyball rate of his career, so that will be a mild concern entering 2010.
The other concern is that Jenks could be traded. He's earning $7.5MM, and has been named in past rumors. If Kenny Williams pulls the trigger, keep an eye on J.J. Putz and Matt Thornton. Putz has the closing experience, but hasn't been dominant since '07. Thornton is the whole package, but sometimes teams don't like to use lefties in the closer role. I consider Putz the mild favorite, but it really depends on how each are throwing at the time of a Jenks trade.
Closer Report: Blue Jays
The Blue Jays currently have a three-man competition at closer, with Kevin Gregg, Jason Frasor, and Scott Downs duking it out. Gregg is a recent free agent signee, while Frasor and Downs are entering their walk years and are trade candidates. Since all three pitchers are being drafted in the 26th round or later, Toronto presents a nice fantasy opportunity if you pick right.
Right now all we know is that Gregg signed in part because he'll get a shot at closing, and manager Cito Gaston will make the decision (MLB.com's Jordan Bastian reporting). According to Mock Draft Central, fantasy owners are currently voting for Downs (311.73), Frasor (323.34), and Gregg (327.29) in that order.
There is reason to believe Downs won't be the guy. The Toronto Star's Richard Griffin notes that Downs is not the lights-out type for the ninth inning. That's understandable; Downs is a southpaw who averages about 90 mph on his heater. Frasor throws harder and he's right-handed. Downs and Frasor both had better peripherals than Gregg in 2009, though they lack his closing experience. Of the three, only Downs had a strong groundball rate.
So while you could make a case for any of the three, I'd be surprised to see Downs get the nod with two capable righties also in the mix. If you're drafting now, take Gregg. Unlike Frasor, Gregg's not a spring trade candidate. And I'm guessing Gaston will choose the experienced closer even if Frasor stays.
Closer Report: Rays
The Rays acquired Rafael Soriano from the Braves and will pay him $7.25MM in 2010. He is unquestionably their closer. If healthy, he'll put up strong numbers. He provides good value at his current 14th round average draft position.
Soriano is in another contract year, so he might hold it together. But he does have a notable injury history, including ulnar nerve surgery transposition in August of '08. You'll want to be aware of his backups.
Basically, J.P. Howell is the one you want. He saved 17 last year with a 10.7 K/9, though he walked 4.5 per nine. Technically, he blew 8 saves in 25 tries, but the majority of those were not typical save situations.
After Howell it's Grant Balfour or Dan Wheeler. Balfour is more in the classic closer mold, and I'd take him assuming he's going well.
Closer Report: Yankees
WEDNESDAY: Looks like Hughes is the favorite for the fifth starter job, making Joba the current choice as Rivera's backup.
TUESDAY: Yankees closer Mariano Rivera is being drafted at 72.11, the 7th round in a 12-team mixed league. I typically don't take closers that early, but I wouldn't begrudge you for jumping on a legendary stopper projected for excellent ratios and 40 saves.
That said, Mo is 40, and at some point someone else will get a crack at closing for the Yankees. If Rivera gets hurt, Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain might be candidates to step in (whoever is not in the rotation). In 2009 Hughes posted a 1.40 ERA, 11.4 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9 in 51.3 relief innings. He's going about 100 picks later than Chamberlain, too.
It was a lost season for lefty Damaso Marte, but he could also be in the mix to close games in Rivera's absence, depending on matchups. Strikeout artist David Robertson could be the pen's dark horse if injuries to others run rampant.
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