Closers


Position/Role Battles: The White Sox Closer

With Sergio Santos now in Toronto, the White Sox find themselves looking for another regular closer.  Two veterans and one very promising young arm stand out as the top candidates to take over as Chicago's new ninth-inning man, so let's break down their cases and fantasy value...

Matt Thornton: After years of quality set-up work out of the White Sox bullpen, Thornton got his shot at the closer's job in the wake of Bobby Jenks' departure last winter.  Unfortunately for Thornton, his promotion was short-lived.  He suffered through a horrific April, posting an 8.36 ERA in the month and blowing his first four save opportunities, not actually racking up a save until May 11.  By that point, Santos had emerged and Thornton returned to his usual setup role.

The good news for Thornton is that for the last five months of the season, he was as dominant as ever --- a 2.45 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 51 1/3 innings from May 3 to Sept. 28, holding opposing hitters to just a .574 OPS.  It's very possible that April 2011 was just a poorly timed rough month for the southpaw, rather than a sign that he can't handle closing.  New Chicago manager Robin Ventura may share this opinion, recently noting that Thornton was "probably" the leading closer candidate going into Spring Training (though pitching coach Don Cooper was a bit surprised by Ventura's statement).

On paper, Thornton seems like the most capable ninth-inning option for the White Sox.  I would guess he'll at least start the season with the job and get every opportunity to prove that last April was just a fluke.  Though Thornton is 35 years old, he has been consistent enough in recent years that a sudden drop off the cliff performance-wise would be unlikely.  Thornton will probably get a second crack at closing, barring a huge Spring Training from...

Addison Reed: The 23-year-old Reed has been nothing short of dominant in his short pro career. A third-round pick in the 2010 draft, Reed has quickly shot through Chicago's system after posting a 1.41 ERA, an 0.74 WHIP, and 155 strikeouts (against just 20 walks) in 108 1/3 innings pitched over two minor league seasons.  Reed's dominance earned him a call to the Major Leagues last September, where he recorded a 3.38 ERA and 12 strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings of work.

It's easy for Sox fans to be tempted by the thought of a dominant rookie seizing the job and becoming the team's closer for the next decade-plus, but while Reed has looked great in his two years as a pro, it's still just two years of experience.  Chicago has no particular need to rush Reed into a major role right away and might even think Reed's development would be better served closing games in Triple-A rather than staring the season in the big leagues.

Keep an eye on Reed during Spring Training, since if he's blowing away the Cactus League as easily as he did the minors, he may force Chicago's hand.  And, needless to say, if you're in any kind of keeper league or futures league, Reed is a must-buy if he isn't locked up on someone else's roster already.

Jesse Crain: Last winter, Crain said that the chance to close games was one of the reasons he chose to leave Minnesota and sign with the White Sox. In Crain's limited opportunities to close in 2011, he struggled badly in the role, blowing six of seven possible saves.  This was the only statistical black mark on an otherwise very solid year for Crain (a 2.62 ERA and a career-best 9.6 K/9 rate in 67 games) but it continues a disturbing trend that stretches back to Crain's time with the Twins. In 23 career save opportunities, Crain has converted just four saves --- a ghastly 17% conversion rate.

In fairness to Crain, he has never been asked to close in his eight-year career. If you believe in "the closing mentality," Crain's change in mindset and preparation knowing that he would be the first choice with a ninth-inning lead could do wonders for him.  Still, Crain seems like an emergency option who would only find regular closing chances if Thornton and Reed both struggled.

Fantasy outlook: No matter who wins the job, the White Sox closer should clearly be the #2 saves option in your fantasy bullpen. Draft a more proven, stable closer as your top saves-getter to give you the breathing room to take a bit of a flyer on Chicago's closer.  Thornton is the favorite at this point but the situation is definitely fluid.

Unlike some of our other Position/Role Battle cases, the Chicago closing battle isn't a zero-sum game, especially if you're in a league that tracks holds. Your ideal "holds guy" is a pitcher who not only collects holds but also racks up strikeouts and has other strong peripherals.  Thornton has been one of baseball's best and most consistent setup men over the last six seasons, averaging 20 holds a year and a 3.29 K/BB ratio in that stretch. Crain's overall career numbers are a bit more hit-and-miss, but he's been stellar the last two years, and Reed's minor league potential speaks for itself.  If you draft Thornton or Crain and they don't end up as the closer, you'll have the nice consolation prize of owning a solid holds guy.  The same goes for Reed unless the White Sox send him back down to Triple-A.

The other x-factor is that we don't yet know how Ventura (a rookie to not just the Major League managing ranks but to any level of pro coaching) intends to deploy his bullpen.  Will Ventura use the standard practice of having one primary closer, or could he mix things up?  Between Thornton and Crain, the possibility exists for a lefty-righty closing platoon depending on matchups, so Ventura has some room to be creative with the closer's job. 

This, of course, might be great for Chicago's chances of winning games, but it's not what you want from the standpoint of fantasy stability.  If Thornton wins the closer's job and you draft him, don't hesitate to also pick up Crain or Reed as a handcuff.  Best-case scenario, you get both a top closer and a top holds guy, mirroring those shrewd fantasy owners who handcuffed Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters last year.



Closer Report

The latest on the closing situations for all 30 teams...


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Position Battles: Angels Closer

In what appears to be a wide open competition, the Angels have five candidates trying to win the closer's job this spring. Manager Mike Scioscia has hinted at a closer-by-committee to begin the season, saying recently that "any one of five guys have the ability to get the last out of the game." But it's quite possible that somebody emerges with the job by the time the season starts. I'll be keeping a close eye on this competition, along with over 50 other position battles that I've identified, over at MLBDepthCharts.com. Let's take a look at the contenders.

Tale of the Tape

Fernando Rodney vs Scott Downs vs Hisanori Takahasi vs Kevin Jepsen vs Jordan Walden

Rodney: 33 years old, $5.5MM salary 2010 stats: 4-3, 4.24 ERA, 68 IP, 70 H, 35 BB, 53 K, 14 Sv, 21 holds 2011 Outlook: Slight favorite 

The right-hander took over as the team's full-time closer after Brian Fuentes was traded to Minnesota in late August and proceeded to blow saves in four of 12 opportunities. Rodney also gave up at least one run in 8 of 17 games during that stretch. So it's easy to understand why his manager has not anointed him as the team's closer for 2011. He is the most experienced of the group, by far, with 84 career saves and had a solid first half of the 2010 season (4-0, 3.57 ERA in 38 games) so it appears he could still have a slight edge at this point.

Downs: 34 years old, $5MM salary 2010 stats: 5-5, 2.64 ERA, 61.1 IP, 47 H, 14 BB, 48 K, 26 holds 2011 Outlook: Underdog, more likely to fill setup role with an occasional save opportunity

The veteran has been among the top left-handed setup men in baseball over the past few years and was rewarded this offseason with a three-year, $15MM deal to join the Angels. Aside from 2009 when he saved nine games for Toronto, Downs hasn't been given much of a chance to close out games. He's likely to stick to his typical role, trying to hold a lead or keep a game close in the 7th or 8th inning. However, it wouldn't be surprising to see him get a chance to save a few games when the opponent has more than one tough left-handed batter due up in the 9th. In case you're wondering, lefties hit just .152 (12-for-79) against him last season.

Takahashi: 35 years old, $3.8MM salary 2010 stats: 10-6, 3.61 ERA, 122 IP, 116 H, 43 BB, 114 K, 8 Sv 2011 Outlook: Underdog, more likely to fill various roles with an occasional save opportunity

His versatility may have been one of the main reasons the Angels snatched him up with a two-year, $8MM deal this offseason. But it could also work against him in this competition. The left-hander, who started 12 games for the Mets last season, saved eight games down the stretch as the team's closer, and finished with 10 wins and 122 IP, is capable of filling many roles. He can work multiple innings, make a spot start, come in to face a tough left-handed batter (lefties had .217 BA against him in '10), set up, or close. Takahashi isn't going to strike fear into opponents with his high 80's fastball, but he mixes in a very good change up along with a slider, cutter, and curveball. Not your prototypical closer, which is probably why he's usually going to be overlooked with the game on the line in the 9th.

Jepsen: 26 years old, est. $440K salary 2010 stats: 2-4, 3.97 ERA, 59 IP, 54 H, 29 BB, 61 K, 27 holds 2011 Outlook: Underdog, more likely to continue in setup role 

He appears to have the stuff to be a closer (mid-90's fastball, low 90's cutter, good curveball) but he'll have to be more consistent with his command if he's to be trusted with a 9th inning lead. His 4.4 BB/9 is actually a tad better than Rodney's while his 9.3 K/9 is much better. But it's his lack of experience (1 career save) that puts him behind in this competition. 

Walden: 23 years old, est. $414K salary 2010 stats: 0-1, 2.35 ERA, 15.1 IP, 13 H, 7 BB, 23 K, Sv, 6 holds 2011 Outlook: Underdog, more likely to begin in middle relief role with chance to win job later in the season

Converted to relief just last season, Walden was called up to the majors in August after spending most of the season in Double-A. Scioscia threw him right into the fire and the rookie responded with 23 Ks, six holds, and one save in his 16 big league appearances. For those of you that are impressed by this kind of stuff, the right-hander averaged 98.9 mph with his fastball during his stint with the Angels and reportedly hit 102 mph on the radar while in the minors. Once he proves that he can command his fastball-slider repertoire on a consistent basis, he'll be trusted with the ball late in games and could eventually take over as the full-time closer sometime in 2011. 

Final Word

Instead of aggressively pursuing a free agent closer, such as Rafael Soriano, the Angels chose to invest their money in improving the overall depth of their bullpen, spending $23MM on Downs and Takahashi. Baseball games can just as easily be won or lost in the 7th and 8th innings so we don't know at this point if the Angels will come to regret their decision. It's hard to name a successful team, however, that has gotten by with a bullpen-by-commitee for very long. My guess is that they lean on Rodney early on, with Downs getting an occasional save opportunity, while they ease Walden into the role. If Rodney struggles, look for more Takahashi. Without that 'go-to guy' in the 9th, it's hard to have confidence in the Angels going into 2011. They're living dangerously, if you ask me.



Position Battles: Rays Closer

The Rays had some work to do this offseason after losing six key relievers to free agency, including All-Star closer Rafael Soriano and setup men Joaquin Benoit and Grant Balfour. Here we are just a few days before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training and their bullpen outlook remains questionable, to say the least. While they've brought in plenty of candidates to fill the vacancies, the team is without a clear-cut closer and Manager Joe Maddon recently floated the idea of going into the season with a closer-by-committee if no one claims the job in Spring Training. Probably not a good sign for a team that will be trying to defend their AL East crown. Let's take a look at the top candidates.

Kyle Farnsworth vs Joel Peralta vs J.P. Howell vs Jake McGee vs Adam Russell

Tale of the Tape

Farnsworth:  34 years old, $2.6MM salary 2010 stats: 3-2, 3.34 ERA, 64.2 IP, 55 H, 19 BB, 61 K, 9 holds 2011 Outlook: Favorite to be closer

An intimidating figure on the mound and armed with a mid-90's fastball, the reality is that Farnsworth has never been a regular closer in twelve big league seasons. Throw out a career-high 16 saves in 2005 and the 6'4" right-hander has averaged just one save per season. Prior to 2010, he had an ERA of 4.36 or higher in five of his last six seasons. But last year may have been his best since 2005. Opposing batters had a .634 OPS against him with right-handers not having much of a chance at all (.538 OPS). Here lies what may be a problem, however, if the Rays are counting on him to close out games for them. According to Baseball-Reference, opposing batters were 18-for-55 (.327 BA) against him during high leverage situations in 2010 as opposed to 37-for-184 (.201 BA) in low-to-mid leverage situations. It was the same story in 2009. He should have another chance in 2011 to prove that he can get outs with the game on the line. 

Peralta: 34 years old, $900K salary 2010 stats: 1-0, 2.02 ERA, 49 IP, 30 H, 9 BB, 49 K, 9 holds 2011 Outlook: Underdog to be closer, could get some save opportunities

It's hard to say why Peralta had his best big league season at age 34 or if his success will continue in 2011. A quick look at his FanGraphs player page shows that the right-hander used a 91 MPH fastball, curveball, and splitter to hold opponents to a .170 BA in 2010. Throughout his first few big league seasons, he threw as many as six different pitches. Maybe it's a case of Peralta focusing on his best pitches and scrapping the others. If that's all it was, it sure seems to have worked. Unlike Farnsworth, Peralta's numbers in high leverage situations were stellar. While he has just 2 big league saves on his resume, he saved 20 games in Triple-A last season, the fourth time he has done so in his minor league career. 

Howell: 27 years old, $1.1MM salary 2010 stats: Did Not Play 2009 stats: 7-5, 2.84 ERA, 66.2 IP, 47 H, 33 BB, 79 K, 17 Sv 2011 Outlook: Questionable for start of season (recovery from shoulder surgery); unlikely to be closer upon return but could earn job soon after

There might not be a competition at all if Howell hadn't missed the entire 2010 season recovering from shoulder surgery. After posting a 6.34 ERA in 33 starts over his first three big league seasons, Howell was moved to the 'pen in 2008 where he was 6-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 14 holds in 64 relief appearances. A year later, he saved 17 games with a 2.84 ERA in 69 games. Despite a mid-80's fastball, the left-hander has 9.9 K/9 as a reliever. His knuckle-curve and change up can be devastating on hitters. If he can show the same command of his arsenal once he returns to action (he's expected to return shortly after the start of the season), it might not be long before he's closing out games for the Rays again.  

McGee: 24 years old, est. $424K salary 2010 stats: 4-8, 3.07 ERA, 105.2 IP, 90 H, 36 BB, 127 K, Sv in 30 games (AAA/AA) 2011 Outlook: Underdog to be closer

The 24 year-old lefty was a starting pitcher for Double-A Montgomery in early August when he got the call to Triple-A Durham. With plenty of rotation depth in Tampa Bay, McGee was moved to the bullpen in anticipation of a late-season call-up. In his first relief appearance for Durham, he struck out five of six hitters in two perfect innings. Just over a month later, he was pitching out of the Rays' bullpen. While his big league stint was brief (5 IP, ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 8 relief appearances), he was impressive enough that he goes into 2011 with a good shot to win a spot on the big league roster. His fastball-slider combo gives him closer potential but his lack of experience makes him a long shot to win the job out of Spring Training. 

Russell: 27 years old, est. $424K salary 2010 stats: 4-9, 4.88 ERA, 51.2 IP, 58 H, 32 BB, 51 K, 14 Sv (AAA) 2011 Outlook: Long shot to be closer

Like Farnsworth, Russell looks the part of closer. The 6'8" right-hander throws in the mid-90's and saved 14 games for Triple-A Portland in 2010. But his 10.1 H/9 and 5.6 BB/9 in the minors last year show that he's far from being a big league closer, let alone a middle reliever, at this point in his career. So why include him on this list? Sometimes, a slight mechanical adjustment can make a big difference. Working with a new pitching coach can sometimes do the trick. Out of options and one of the key pieces acquired in the Jason Bartlett deal this offseason, his spot on the roster appears to be secure. So the fact that he can focus more on making adjustments and less on results gives him a chance to take a big step forward this spring.

Final Word

If you ask me, the Rays are taking a huge risk by not bringing in a proven closer. The AL East might be the best division in baseball and it will be tough to rebound from a slow start. If Farnsworth and Peralta can hold down the fort until Howell returns, they should be fine. If not, you could see a new post daily on MLBTR addressing the Rays' search for a closer.



Position Battles: Orioles Closer

Over the next several weeks, I'll be taking a closer look at some of the more intriguing position battles that are likely to take place in Spring Training. I have identified over 50 position battles over at MLBDepthCharts.com with a short analysis on each. You'll get an extended breakdown of the competitions here at RotoAuthority, beginning with the battle for the closer's gig in Baltimore.

Koji Uehara vs Kevin Gregg vs Mike Gonzalez

Tale of the Tape

Uehara: 35 years old, $3MM salary in 2011 2010 stats: 2.86 ERA, 44 IP, 37 H, 5 BB, 55 K, 13 Sv in 15 chances, 6 holds 2011 Outlook: Favorite, along with Gregg

Even with Gregg agreeing to a two-year, $10MM deal last week, Uehara’s 2010 performance gives him just as good of a shot at the closer’s job in 2011. He did blow two saves in September but was nearly flawless otherwise. Most spectacular was the 11.25 K/9 and 1.02 BB/9 that he posted over his 43 relief appearances. After the All-Star break, the right-hander walked only one batter while striking out 45. Amazing numbers considering his fastball averaged just 88.1 MPH, according to FanGraphs. It’s his repertoire of pitches, mainly a change up and splitter, that kept hitters off balance. He’s endured multiple injuries (two hamstring injuries, two elbow injuries) and four DL trips over his two seasons since arriving in the big leagues from Japan so durability is a concern.

Gregg: 32 years old, est. $4-5MM salary 2010 stats: 2-6, 3.51 ERA, 59 IP, 52 H, 30 BB, 58 K, 37 Sv in 43 chances 2011 Outlook: Favorite, along with Uehara

Unlike Uehara, staying healthy hasn’t been a problem for Gregg. He’s averaged 70 relief appearances over the past four seasons with 121 saves over that span. The right-hander also has an array of pitches that he utilizes (92 MPH fastball, cutter, slider, splitter) to get batters out. While his reputation is that of a fearless workhorse, his overall numbers aren’t as impressive as the top relievers in the game. He puts a lot of batters on base (52 H, 30 BB in 58 IP) and has blown 22 saves over the past three seasons. His durability and experience, however, might give him a slight edge. 

Gonzalez: 32 years old, $6MM salary 2010 stats: 1-3, 4.01 ERA, 24.2 IP, 18 H, 14 BB, 31 K, 10 holds 2011 Outlook: Underdog. More likely for 7th-8th inning setup duty

The lefty is behind Uehara and Gregg in the race but don’t forget that he signed a $12MM deal before the 2010 season to become the team’s closer for the next two seasons. An early-season shoulder injury robbed Gonzalez of his effectiveness and eventually landed him on the DL after two blown saves in three appearances. He did return to form when he was activated in late July, posting a 2.78 ERA with 28 Ks and 10 holds in his last 26 relief appearances. If healthy, don’t completely rule him out for save chances throughout the year. His fastball-slider combination can be nasty as evidenced by the career .209 BA opponents have managed against him throughout his career.

Final Word

The biggest question might be, "How many opportunities is the Orioles’ closer going to get this season playing in an always tough AL East"? The offense should be better with the addition of veterans Derrek Lee, J.J. Hardy, and Mark Reynolds and the group of middle relievers (Jim Johnson, Jason Berken, Jeremy Accardo) and setup men (two of Uehara, Gregg, and Gonzalez) appear to be improved. If the starting rotation can offer its share of quality starts, I can see a big year from whichever pitcher ends up getting the majority of saves for this team.  To follow every development, follow @closernews on Twitter.  Voice your opinion on the best fantasy pick out of the Orioles bullpen by taking the poll below.



8 Relievers Who Could Close Next Year

Recently I was asked to name a few relievers who are not currently closing but could become full-time stoppers in 2011.  My candidates:

  • Matt Thornton, White Sox.  The Sox might non-tender Bobby Jenks to save money, and Thornton has the skills to take over the ninth.  He's picked up five saves this year, so it's not a foreign idea.
  • J.J. Putz, free agent.  After a fantastic comeback season Putz could sign on somewhere at $5-6MM and return to closing.
  • Daniel Bard, Red Sox.  I consider it unlikely but it's not implausible that the Red Sox trade Jonathan Papelbon during the offseason.
  • Joe Nathan, Twins.  Hey don't forget about Nathan!  If he comes back strong from Tommy John surgery Matt Capps could be traded or pushed to a setup role next year.
  • Fernando Rodney, Angels.  Brian Fuentes is a free agent, so Rodney is the logical choice to step in (as he did when Fuentes hit the DL this year).  Kevin Jepsen is another candidate.
  • Brandon League, Mariners.  It wouldn't surprise me to see the Mariners move David Aardsma in the offseason.
  • Jonny Venters, Braves.  He's a little green but he's a candidate to take over for the retiring Billy Wagner.
  • Drew Storen, Nationals.  He's currently splitting the closing duties with Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett.  I expect one of the three to be anointed early in the 2011 season.
  • Several teams have to figure out unsettled situations: the Rays, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Angels, and Braves.  We might see free agents like Putz, Frank FranciscoJoaquin Benoit, Takashi Saito, or Grant Balfour given chances to close next year.  As always, keep an eye on @closernews on Twitter for all the developments.


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Who Closes In Pittsburgh If Dotel Is Traded?

As the closer on the last-place Pirates, Octavio Dotel appears a prime candidate to be traded in July.  Evan Meek has closer-worthy numbers, but Joel Hanrahan has experience in the role.  Who would get the nod if Dotel is dealt?  We posed the question to beat writer Dejan Kovacevic, who covers the team for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  His answer:

Meek is very much in line to be the closer, even though Hanrahan, too, has been good. Better than the numbers would suggest in the case of the latter. That said, Dotel's club option for 2011 is just $4.5 million, which isn't a bad price even for the Pirates given how good he has been. Assuming Dotel is not traded, there is a strong chance the team will seriously consider exercising the option.

Meek seems the superior reliever to stash.  Cleveland's Chris Perez might be another to tuck away, in the event Kerry Wood is traded.  For all the latest closer developments, follow @closernews on Twitter.



Closer Report: Minnesota Twins

MARCH 9: The news that Nathan may need Tommy John surgery knocks him off draft boards for now.  Guerrier, Rauch, and Mijares remain my favorites to replace him (in that order), with Pat Neshek and Jesse Crain two other names we can't rule out.  If manager Ron Gardenhire tips his hand or the Twins add a proven closer, we'll be sure to update the situation on our Twitter account CloserNews.

MARCH 3: Twins closer Joe Nathan is still among the very best in the business.  He's going in the seventh round, and the 40 saves, 2.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 75 Ks are worth it.

Nathan is 35, and he had offseason surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow.  He doesn't seem to be off-track because of it, but it's important to know your backup options.

Matt Guerrier is one possibility, though he struck out only 5.5 per nine in '09.  Jose Mijares hasn't been around as long, but he does throw a bit harder and whiffed a more appropriate 8.0 per nine.  However, he's left-handed.  The Twins also have Jon Rauch, who came on strong in his 15.6 innings for them and has closing experience.  Guerrier wins out in terms of Baseball Prospectus' leverage stat, though the other two were close.  If I had to pick one, it'd be Guerrier.



Closer Report: Los Angeles Angels

Brian Fuentes remains the Angels' closer, and the tenth round is pretty early for a guy who didn't pitch particularly well in 2009 and has decent backups in place.

The Halos committed big money to Fernando Rodney, but he's slated to be a setup man.  Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times explains:

Rodney is expected to share setup duties with Scot Shields and Kevin Jepsen and close on a fill-in basis when Brian Fuentes is down.

Fuentes was relieved by Jepsen multiple times last season, with Mike Scioscia opting for a semi-job share arrangement in mid-September.  Jepsen dealt with shoulder tendinitis that month, so he's been taking it easy this spring.  Shields is coming off knee surgery.

Given Rodney's fastball, closing experience, and contract, he's the one you want.  And though the Angels probably won't admit it, they could try to prevent Fuentes from reaching the 55 games finished he needs for his 2011 option to vest at $9MM.  Unfortunately Rodney is currently going in the 18th round, a sign that those drafting don't realize he's not the closer.  At that point in the draft you can still get established closers like Chad Qualls, Matt Capps, and Kerry Wood.

For all of our 2010 closer reports, click here. And be sure to follow our @CloserNews twitter page for instant updates on changes in closing situations.



Closer Report: Kansas City Royals

Royals closer Joakim Soria is currently being drafted in the 9th round.  Given his ridiculous skills, that's a reasonable place to take him.

Who's behind Soria on the depth chart?  Assuming Kyle Farnsworth goes to the rotation, I'd place Juan Cruz is second in line.  Cruz had an awful 2009 amid a shoulder strain, but he still throws 94 and is earning $3.25MM.  Should he fail to crack the rotation, Robinson Tejeda is another setup candidate (11.8 K/9 in 42 relief innings last year). 





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