Cleveland Indians

Shutdown Corner: AL Central Closer Roundup

Baseball players are showing up at Spring Training sites, everyone! And as spring gets within reach, I'm posting closer roundups for every division in baseball. This week, it's the mysterious, murky, up-for-grabs American League Central on the hot seat. As always, you can check back in on our previous roundups: AL West, NL East, AL East and NL Central.

If you haven't been following along at home, here's our closer tiering system for the pre-season:

• Tier 1: World-class reliever, capable of putting up a season for the ages.
• Tier 2: Very good closer, both stable and effective.
• Tier 3: Average closer, may be lacking either stability or effectiveness.
• Tier 4: Poor closer, either completely ineffective but stable, or very unstable.

Chicago White Sox: Addison Reed

Last season, Addison Reed -- a guy who was highly hyped as a sleeper closer by many fantasy mavens -- made good on most of his promise and held down the White Sox closer job for most of the season. While he turned in 29 saves, the rest of his numbers weren't quite as stellar as owners would have hoped: a 22.7% strikeout rate was lower than anything he'd posted in the minors by a fair bit, and his ERA sat at an ugly 4.75, despite peripherals that gave him an FIP of 3.64.

On the bright side, Reed is still young for a closer at 24, and will have the ninth inning all to himself this season. He's ensconced in his position now, and he still projects to improve upon last season's rate stats and K totals. This is a guy who just doesn't have the actual performance to move up to Tier 2 yet, but is on the leading edge of Tier 3 closers. He could have a big season.

Projected Tier: Tier 3 (needs more strikeouts / consistency to be a upper-echelon closer)

Next in line: Jesse Crain

Cleveland Indians: Chris Perez

After 2011, I swore I'd never draft Chris Perez again. The Cleveland closer has a history of cardiac saves, and Perez had more meltdowns in 2011 than the Springfield nuclear power plant. So you can imagine my surprise when 2012 was a pretty great season for Perez. Last year, Perez was actually pretty reliable, posting solid rate stats (3.59 ERA and 1.13 WHIP), watching his strikeout rate rebound (up to 24.4%) and grabbing a career-high 39 saves.

Nevertheless, I'm still a little wary about drafting Perez again this season. While he's a good bet to grab you saves, his performance is still a bit too up-and-down for my taste, without some of the upside of other closers. And, of course, the Indians don't look to be contenders this season, and could very likely trade their expensive closer to a team closer to the playoffs. When factoring in Vinnie Pestano's readiness to close, Perez might only be a closer for half the season.

Projected Tier: Tier 3 (Perez is unstable, and always close to being traded)

Next in line: Vinnie Pestano

Detroit Tigers: Bruce Rondon

In truth, Bruce Rondon's name is here as a placeholder, because the Tigers are really giving no strong indication who will close for the team in 2013. With Jose Valverde (likely) leaving via free agency, Jim Leyland has yet to commit to a new stopper for the team in 2013. With plenty of decent-but-not-great options in the bullpen, trying to guess on the Tigers' closer before Spring Training kicks off seems like a fool's errand.

If we (as fantasy owners) are lucky, though, Bruce Rondon will be the guy for Detroit. Rondon has a big 10o+ mph heater, and if it plays up in Spring Training, the team may want to give him a shot at the ninth inning. We're still not entirely sure if Rondon can consistently get his big fastball over the plate, but if he can, he could be a huge strikeout machine in the mold of an Aroldis Chapman. And Rondon could certainly be a keeper for future years, provided he stays healthy.

But yeah, I wouldn't draft a closer from Detroit this year. I think it will take them a few months to figure out who owns the ninth, if they ever do.

Projected Tier: Tier 4 (too unstable to call at this point)

Next in line: Brayan Villarreal, Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Al Alburquerque, Phil Coke

Kansas City Royals: Greg Holland

Without too much fanfare, Greg Holland has been one of the best relievers in baseball over the past two seasons. Last season was the first in which Holland was a "real closer" for part of a season, but the 27-year-old hurler did himself proud. A 31.5% strikeout rate puts him in the top tier of late-game hurlers, and a 2.25 FIP means that we can continue to expect big things going forward. While he's still prone to too many walks and hits (1.37 WHIP last year), he's probably one of your best bets when it comes to mid-level closers.

I'd be comfortable drafting him in the 5-10 range among closers for next season. Don't break the bank to add him (he's not going to put up a Craig Kimbrel season, most likely), but he's probably going to be better than most other late-inning options next season.

Projected Tier: Tier 2 (solid strikeout rate, not much competition, recent track record is great)

Next in line: Aaron Crow

Minnesota Twins: Glen Perkins

Many Minnesota fans must be breathing a sigh of relief that the Matt Capps era is over in the Twin Cities. Though Perkins was once another unremarkable Twins starter, he has reinvented himself as a reliever, one who features a solid fastball-slider combo able to get whiffs at an above-league-average rate. I know. It is weird to see that written about a Twins pitcher.

Perkins has posted very sharp rate stats over the past two years, with ERAs sitting right around 2.50 and a 2012 WHIP of just 1.03. Not too shabby. When you factor in the fact that the Twins don't have a strenuous competition for the job, and that the team doesn't seem likely to add another bullpen piece to oust him, Perkins looks to be sitting pretty for 2013.

The only tough question with Perkins is whether or not he'll get the number of save opportunities necessary to make him an upper-tier closer. My guess is that, well, that's tough to guess. But if Chris Perez got 39 saves last season for the lowly Indians, there's a pretty good chance that Perkins could get 30 for the Twins in 2013. Don't hesitate to draft him.

Projected Tier: Tier 2 (good strikeouts, good rate stats, homers can beat him up)

Next in line: Jared Burton

As always, check out @CloserNews on Twitter for up-to-the-minute closer updates, and find me at@bgrosnick for everything baseball. Shutdown Corner will return next week with the last installment of the Closer Roundup series: a look at the NL West.

All data from FanGraphs.

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Closer Updates: Balfour, Soria, Perez, Thornton

It's never too late to squeeze in an extra mock or 10, but for the most part, real draft season is finally upon us. Only about a week remains till Opening Day in Japan, and you'll want to have conducted your draft by then so as to account for the players who will partake in those ballgames. After all, every stat accrued counts.

Now that the drafts count, remember to study up on the latest in injuries and role battles. It seems obvious, but at some point we've all been part of a draft in which some slacker selects a recently DL'd type in the 12th -- to the snickers of everyone in the chat forum.

On that note, here's the latest on a few bullpen situations you'll want to be apprised of heading into the big day.  For up-to-the-minute bullpen updates, follow CloserNews on Twitter.

Grant Balfour, Athletics

Jon Heyman threw us a curveball, guessing incorrectly that Brian Fuentes would be named the Athletics' closer about 20 minutes before manager Bob Melvin announced Grant Balfour had the job.  Hopefully you weren't finishing up a draft during the interim of those two tweets.  Fantasy owners had been preferring Balfour slightly, but were avoiding the situation in general until the 19th round.  Balfour has only 10 career saves to Fuentes' 199, but is clearly the superior pitcher.  He now belongs in that uncomfortable closer-drafting period, around picks 170-210, and is as good a bet as Chris Perez, Kyle Farnsworth, Frank Francisco, Javy Guerra, Matt Capps, Matt Thornton, Jim Johnson, and Brett Myers.  - this paragraph by Tim Dierkes

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria exited his latest ineffective Cactus League appearance mid-inning due to pain in his pitching elbow. Sure enough, he underwent an MRI, which revealed damage to his ulnar collateral ligament. That ligament, folks, is the one that can lead to Tommy John surgery, a procedure Soria's already had earlier in his career.

While a second TJ is not confirmed for Soria, this is obviously not an encouraging development. Even if he can avoid surgery, I would expect him to be out well beyond Opening Day, leaving the door open for Jonathan Broxton or Greg Holland to take the reins as closer (I'm omitting Aaron Crow for now, as it sounds like he will be splitting his season between the bullpen and rotation).

Of those two, I'd like to see Holland get a shot at closing. His surface stats were superb last season, and the peripherals (2.22 SIERA) suggest it was no fluke. With a booming strikeout rate and very solid control, Holland is more than capable of holding down the job. As for Brox, well, we all have that T-shirt. He was once an elite stopper, but he hasn't been the same guy since that outing -- you know, that 48-pitch debacle in June 2010. He was terrible in the second half that season and missed basically all of last season. Even if he's fully healthy -- which I hope he is -- is it fair to expect him to return to his old form?

In any event, we'll have to get official word from the Royals on Soria's status -- and his potential replacement -- but be sure you're up to speed before your draft.

Chris Perez, Indians

CP has recovered quickly from an oblique injury suffered early in camp. The right-hander threw a bullpen session this weekend, is slated to return to Cactus League action this week, and projects to be ready by Opening Day.

That's a net win, because injuries aren't cool, but for fantasy purposes, the Tribe could do far better. Perez was one of the worst closers in baseball last season by the peripherals, with very little daylight between his low strikeout rate and high walk rate. SIERA sure wasn't impressed: 4.65.

Vinnie Pestano is waiting in the wings, and he racks up Ks by the bunches, but for now, it looks like Perez is still the man. Don't make Perez anything more than one of the last -- if not the last -- closers off the board, but hey, we all need saves, and he has the job if he doesn't suffer any further injury setbacks.

Matt Thornton, White Sox

Sox skipper Robin Ventura (still not used to calling him that) tabbed Thornton as the tentative leader to close before camp even opened, and with Opening Day not far off, the first-year manager's word looks to be holding true.

Chris Sale, who vultured some saves from Sergio Santos last year, is now out of the picture because he's in the starting rotation. He was never expected to be a threat, though, because his transition has been in the works since last season. Instead, rookie Addison Reed was thought to be Thornton's stiffest competition, but his lack of The Experience seems to have earned him no favors with Ventura. Surprisingly, it's Jesse Crain who is also vying for saves, although he has been dealing with an oblique strain, presumably giving Thornton a leg up.

Thornton is the guy to target until further notice, and frankly, he could be a good value pick. After a disappointing start to 2011 (marred by some bad luck, too) that ultimately saw him demoted from the closer's role, the lefty pretty much bounced back to his career norms. If Thornton gets the job again out of camp, I wouldn't expect that to happen again. Draft with relative confidence.

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Position/Role Battles: The Indians' C/1B/DH

There are a number of players swirling around the Indians' catching, first base and DH positions, but there is only one constant --- Carlos Santana.  The young slugger is coming off a 27-homer season and is the cornerstone of the Tribe's lineup, so the club's obvious priority is to keep him in the lineup every day.  While his bat plays best at catcher, Santana's defensive shortcomings and the Tribe's desire to keep him fresh and healthy will net Santana a lot of time at both first base and DH this season. 

It goes without saying that of the players listed in this post, Santana is clearly the best fantasy option.  You have the luxury of keeping him as your fantasy catcher all season along, but Santana's position in the real-life Cleveland lineup will have a domino effect on several other members of the Tribe.  I'll rank the rest in order of their fantasy value in 2012 ...

Lou Marson: If you're in a league with one starting catcher, it's very hard to find a backup.  If you're in a league with TWO starting catcher spots, then forget about backups; it's a stretch to find two productive starters at the shallowest position in baseball.  You've got to be on the lookout to fill that second starter or backup-catcher slot with part-time backstops who have good splits and are guaranteed to get regular playing time.

Marson fits this profile to a T.  He has a .285/.367/.395 line in 199 career plate appearances against southpaws; it's a relatively small sample size, but it aligns with the .750 OPS Marson posted in his seven minor league seasons. Marson is also just 25 years old, so his bat could even still improve.

As a right-handed hitter, Marson is a rare commodity on an Indians roster dominated by lefty bats.  His production against southpaws will net him most, if not all, of the starts when the Tribe faces a left-hander, while the switch-hitting Santana (who destroys lefty pitching) will move to DH or first.  Even if Marson just gets 260-270 plate appearances in 2012, a .750 OPS is pretty solid for a second catcher, or even for a backup that you can rotate into the lineup if your full-time starter has a splits problem of his own.

Travis Hafner: "Pronk" turns 35 in June, hasn't played in the field since 2007, and has battled injuries in each of the past three seasons. While the perception is that Hafner has fallen off the map since his huge years in 2004-06, he is still a dangerous (if limited) fantasy threat.  Hafner is strictly a platoon player now, only dangerous against right-handed pitching ... but boy, he's still very dangerous in that limited capacity, posting no worse than an .863 OPS against righties over the past three seasons.  

Personally speaking, I try to avoid DH-only players in fantasy baseball.  I enjoy being able use my utility spot on a bench player who's on a hot streak or having a breakout year, rather than locking it up with one DH for the entire season. If you have a DH-only player like David Ortiz that's worth playing every day, more power to you, but me, I prefer to have a bit of flexibility in my lineup.  That said, if you're going to draft a designated hitter, make it one with killer splits like Hafner so you can start him whenever the Tribe faces a right-hander. 

I'm placing Marson ahead of Hafner simply because Marson only has been ranked against other catchers, whereas Hafner has to compete against literally every other hitter in baseball as a utility player.  A .750 OPS in 270 plate appearances from Marson is more valuable than Hafner's .863 OPS in the same amount of playing time since that production from a catcher is harder to find than Hafner's production in the utility spot.  Marson is still a question mark early in his career, to be sure, but Hafner's injury question gives him a red flag of his own. When in doubt, always take the catcher with upside over the aging DH.

Casey Kotchman: After signing a minor league deal with the Rays last offseason, Kotchman ended up as one of 2011's biggest bargains, posting a .306/.378/.422 line as Tampa Bay's regular first baseman.  That performance may have saved his Major League career, and it resulted in Kotchman signing a one-year, $3MM deal with Cleveland in February. 

If you picked up Kotchman after his hot start last year, congratulations.  If you actually drafted Kotchman last year, then whoa, start playing the lottery. Big season aside, however, it would be almost as surprising if Kotchman were to repeat his 2011 performance in 2012.  Last season was Kotchman's first solid campaign since 2007, he has a wide gap in his splits (.838 OPS vs. RHP, .709 OPS vs. LHP in 2011) and the fact that his OPS dropped by almost 100 points in the second half indicate that he is probably best served as a platoon player.  A left-handed hitter, Kotchman will share time at first with ...

Matt LaPorta: The centerpiece of the package Cleveland received from Milwaukee in the C.C. Sabathia trade, LaPorta has thus far not delivered on the Major League level, hitting .238/.304/.397 in 1,007 plate appearances.  At age 27 and entering his prime years, this could well be a make-or-break season for LaPorta. Kotchman's presence means both that the team can ease LaPorta into a platoon and also give them a veteran fallback should LaPorta struggle again.

Fantasy owners have been picking LaPorta in the later rounds of the last few seasons' worth of drafts, hoping the vaunted prospect will finally break out.  With Kotchman on board this year taking at-bats, I'd guess LaPorta's draft stock could be reduced even further, though if there was ever a season for him to finally break out, on paper this should be the one.  He has demolished minor league pitching so he has nothing left to prove on that level --- either LaPorta produces in 2012 or else he gets tagged with the dreaded "Quadruple-A" label.

Shelley Duncan: The 32-year-old veteran will factor into the first base and DH mix, though his primary contribution to the Indians may come in left field.  Grady Sizemore's health is a question mark, and with the latest news that Sizemore will miss Opening Day due to a back strain, Michael Brantley will now probably start the year as Cleveland's center fielder, putting Duncan and several other outfielders in line for playing time in left. 

Duncan is out of options, but his right-handed bat is probably enough to keep him around anyway on the lefty-heavy Indians (though curiously, Duncan had a .918 OPS in 133 PAs against righties and a .679 OPS in 114 PAs against lefties, a large enough gap that it almost evened out his career splits). Duncan is not a viable fantasy option unless you're in a deep AL-only league or you're the same Nostradamus that saw Kotchman's 2011 season coming.

Fantasy Outlook: To recap, when the Indians face a right-handed starter, their lineup will likely feature Hafner at designated hitter, Santana catching and Kotchman at first.  When a southpaw is on the mound, Santana will DH, Marson will catch and either LaPorta or Duncan will play first.  (Or, one of those two is the DH and Santana plays first.)

While Santana will clearly be the first Indian taken and will be gone by the third round at the latest, Marson and Hafner should both still be around by the 19th or 20th rounds of most drafts.  Some fantasy owners could be swayed by Kotchman's 2011 numbers and select him around this time or even a couple of rounds earlier, but I wouldn't take him with anything but a last-round flier. The same goes for LaPorta, despite all of that potential. I wouldn't draft Duncan at all, but he could provide limited value off the waiver wire depending on how the Tribe's left field or first base situations develop throughout the season.

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Time To Drop Grady Sizemore?

THURSDAY: Sizemore is on the DL indefinitely due to the knee bruise, and surgery hasn't been ruled out.  I'd suggest waiting for further information before cutting him, especially if you have a DL spot available.

WEDNESDAY: Grady Sizemore was chosen in the second round of many fantasy leagues, so dropping him is a difficult pill to swallow.  Is it time to move on?

Sizemore is getting an MRI on his bruised knee today.  He'll probably miss at least several more games, so cutting him won't hurt in the short-term.  However, the bruise happened on Sunday.  It's not the cause of his 2010 struggles.  As recently as May 13th, Sizemore told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer he's healthy despite coming off a couple of September surgeries.

Sizemore has been a huge detriment in fantasy leagues, with a 2010 performance worse than any month he had in '09.  In fact, he was pretty good in July and August of last year before going down in September for elbow and abdominal wall surgery.  On May 11th FanGraphs' Dave Allen worked his magic to explain the problem: "He is swinging at more pitches he shouldn't and at fewer pitches he should."  Sizemore has been uncharacteristically choosing the wrong pitches to swing at and take in his 140 plate appearances this year.

If you have the bench space, you should stash Sizemore.  Assuming his knee checks out, his only real problem is an old-fashioned slump.  140 PAs is a concerning sample, but the guy's 27.  He probably didn't completely forget how to hit.  Those who stick with Sizemore will probably be rewarded with a solid power/speed combo from here on out.

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Closer Report: Cleveland Indians

Kerry Wood enters the 2010 season as the Indians' closer.  He's being drafted in the 21st round, which presumably reflects his past health issues and the possibility of a midseason trade.

I'm not too worried about Wood's health, as he managed at least 55 innings in each of the last two seasons.  One consideration is that Wood's $11MM option for 2011 vests with 55 games finished, and the Indians would probably prefer for that not to happen.  Wood finished 50 in '09 and 56 in '08.  The Indians can't get too cute with Wood's role or DL trips, though, or they'll risk a grievance.

There's a good chance Wood is traded midseason, and there's no way to predict whether he'd close for his new team.  While Tony Sipp and Jensen Lewis could merit consideration as his replacement, Chris Perez is my current favorite.  Perez, who came over in the Mark DeRosa trade, had a 10.7 K/9 in 57 innings.  He'll need to improve his walk and home run rates, however.

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Garko To The Outfield?

Indians manager Eric Wedge revealed yesterday that Ryan Garko well be tested as an outfielder during Spring Training.

For Garko himself, I can see mild utility in mixed leagues in that he could hit 20 HR with 80 RBI given 500 or so ABs.

The effects on Kelly Shoppach and Victor Martinez are more interesting.  V-Mart can remain a 500 AB guy, which is huge for a catcher.  And if Shoppach gets 400 ABs, he's a threat to repeat as a 20 HR backstop.

It's also possible one of these players is traded.

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J.J. Putz Trade Examined

Mets GM Omar Minaya pulled off a blockbuster trade Monday, adding J.J. Putz, Sean Green, and Jeremy Reed to the organization.  Let's take a look at the fantasy baseball ramifications.

Of the three players the Mets added, Putz should have 2009 mixed league value.  The common refrain in the fantasy mags next year might be that Putz lost all his value because he's become a setup man.  That's not true.  If healthy, Putz could be among the best setup men in baseball.  Based on his 2006-07 numbers, he's capable of striking out 80-100 with microscopic ratios.  Plus, he's moving to the NL.  There's also the possibility that Francisco Rodriguez gets injured or isn't available three days in a row, leaving save chances for Putz.  Pick him up in the late rounds and be rewarded.

The Mariners received Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Mike Carp, Franklin Gutierrez, and three minor leaguers.  Heilman is intriguing - he could be squeezed into the rotation, or he could remain in the 'pen and even find save chances.  He could be useful if he rediscovers his control, but should be a bench pickup at best.  I'm not thrilled with the fantasy value of the rest of the package, though Gutierrez could have his uses if you spot-start him against lefties.  And he did toss up a .313/.389/.476 line in the season's final two months.  He should be the Ms' regular center fielder.

The Indians inserted themselves into the deal rather than go all-out to try to get Putz to keep.  Joe Smith and Luis Valbuena do not figure to have fantasy value in '09. 

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Looking Ahead: Cliff Lee

Fantasy leaguers have short memories, and often seem to expect pitchers to repeat the previous year's performance (right down to the win total).  Readers of this site know it usually doesn't work that way.  Let's take a look at this year's Cy Young favorite, Cliff Lee. 

I should start by saying, I like Cliff Lee.  He has helped many of my fantasy teams this year (except when I traded him to Los Genius for Rafael Furcal in May). Right now Lee has a 2.43 ERA, 18 wins, and a 1.08 WHIP.  A 5.42 K/BB ratio tells us this is no fluke.  However, it must be noted that Lee leads all of baseball with a 5.0% HR per flyball rate.  Though he's gained a ton in groundball rate, he's likely to give up twice as many homers in '09. 

The other risk factor is that he pitched 145.3 innings in '07 and should top 225 this year.  Lee is 30 years old and he's topped 200 innings in the past.  Still, 80 innings is a notable increase for any pitcher in my opinion.

Run support should also be considered - Lee is seventh in the AL with 5.77 runs per game.  The Indians rank eighth in the league with 4.83 runs per game.  Baseball Prospectus suggests Lee should be 14-5 rather than 18-2.  XFIP calls for a 3.47 ERA rather than 2.43.  Still, you'd take 14 wins and a 3.47 ERA for a guy you plucked off the waiver wire, wouldn't you?

That's the thing about a Cy Young season - it's a very well-pitched performance accentuated by good fortune.  I have no idea how fantasy leaguers will respond to Lee's season.  If they overcompensate for his likely decline and he slips past the eighth round, I'll consider him.

Last year's AL Cy Young vote with each pitcher's average '08 draft round: C.C. Sabathia (5), Josh Beckett (5), John Lackey (6), Fausto Carmona (9), Erik Bedard (4), Roy Halladay (9), Johan Santana (2), Justin Verlander (5).  And for fun, the NL: Jake Peavy (2), Brandon Webb (4), Brad Penny (11), Aaron Harang (6), Carlos Zambrano (6), Cole Hamels (5), John Smoltz (7), Jose Valverde (8), Jeff Francis (13).

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Cliff Lee's Dominance

I picked up Cliff Lee in three of my five leagues, as I liked his early K/BB and soft schedule.  I certainly didn't expect for him to go on a run unmatched in at least the last 50 years.  Let's look at the numbers:

31.2 innings
4 starts
7.92 IP/start
0.28 ERA
0.41 WHIP
8.24 K/9
0.57 BB/9
14.5 K/BB
3.13 H/9
.153 BABIP
0.00 HR/9
45.2% groundball rate

Sure, most of it's not sustainable, but let's just marvel in it for a moment. 

OK, let's talk reality.  Lee was nothing special in spring, but won the fifth starter battle.  Last year he posted an ERA over 6.00 amid an abdominal strain, earning a demotion in July.  Lee's career-best K/9: 8.09.  His best walk rate was 2.32.  It's not unfathomable he could combine those career-best rates into one dominant season.

How about the soft schedule?  For that we can use Baseball Prospectus' Opponent's Quality OPS.  That's the aggregate OPS of all batters faced by a pitcher.  Lee's opponents have the 17th-lowest OPS at .694.  By the way, Adam Wainwright has faced the easiest opponents based on this stat.

Obviously Lee can't keep it up, but if you own him you should probably just enjoy the ride.  If you're overflowing with pitching and you're offered a top-30 type hitter, make the trade.  Otherwise, enjoy what should be Lee's career year.

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Borowski To DL

Joe Borowski's on the DL, but I'm not seeing much of a scramble for Rafael Betancourt.  That's because he was already rostered in all five of my 12-team mixed leagues.  Wouldn't be shocking to see Betancourt keep the gig all year.

If he bombs for some reason, I'd keep an eye on Masahide Kobayashi, Rafael Perez, and Jensen Lewis (in that order).

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