Chicago White Sox

Position/Role Battles: The White Sox Closer

With Sergio Santos now in Toronto, the White Sox find themselves looking for another regular closer.  Two veterans and one very promising young arm stand out as the top candidates to take over as Chicago's new ninth-inning man, so let's break down their cases and fantasy value...

Matt Thornton: After years of quality set-up work out of the White Sox bullpen, Thornton got his shot at the closer's job in the wake of Bobby Jenks' departure last winter.  Unfortunately for Thornton, his promotion was short-lived.  He suffered through a horrific April, posting an 8.36 ERA in the month and blowing his first four save opportunities, not actually racking up a save until May 11.  By that point, Santos had emerged and Thornton returned to his usual setup role.

The good news for Thornton is that for the last five months of the season, he was as dominant as ever --- a 2.45 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 51 1/3 innings from May 3 to Sept. 28, holding opposing hitters to just a .574 OPS.  It's very possible that April 2011 was just a poorly timed rough month for the southpaw, rather than a sign that he can't handle closing.  New Chicago manager Robin Ventura may share this opinion, recently noting that Thornton was "probably" the leading closer candidate going into Spring Training (though pitching coach Don Cooper was a bit surprised by Ventura's statement).

On paper, Thornton seems like the most capable ninth-inning option for the White Sox.  I would guess he'll at least start the season with the job and get every opportunity to prove that last April was just a fluke.  Though Thornton is 35 years old, he has been consistent enough in recent years that a sudden drop off the cliff performance-wise would be unlikely.  Thornton will probably get a second crack at closing, barring a huge Spring Training from...

Addison Reed: The 23-year-old Reed has been nothing short of dominant in his short pro career. A third-round pick in the 2010 draft, Reed has quickly shot through Chicago's system after posting a 1.41 ERA, an 0.74 WHIP, and 155 strikeouts (against just 20 walks) in 108 1/3 innings pitched over two minor league seasons.  Reed's dominance earned him a call to the Major Leagues last September, where he recorded a 3.38 ERA and 12 strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings of work.

It's easy for Sox fans to be tempted by the thought of a dominant rookie seizing the job and becoming the team's closer for the next decade-plus, but while Reed has looked great in his two years as a pro, it's still just two years of experience.  Chicago has no particular need to rush Reed into a major role right away and might even think Reed's development would be better served closing games in Triple-A rather than staring the season in the big leagues.

Keep an eye on Reed during Spring Training, since if he's blowing away the Cactus League as easily as he did the minors, he may force Chicago's hand.  And, needless to say, if you're in any kind of keeper league or futures league, Reed is a must-buy if he isn't locked up on someone else's roster already.

Jesse Crain: Last winter, Crain said that the chance to close games was one of the reasons he chose to leave Minnesota and sign with the White Sox. In Crain's limited opportunities to close in 2011, he struggled badly in the role, blowing six of seven possible saves.  This was the only statistical black mark on an otherwise very solid year for Crain (a 2.62 ERA and a career-best 9.6 K/9 rate in 67 games) but it continues a disturbing trend that stretches back to Crain's time with the Twins. In 23 career save opportunities, Crain has converted just four saves --- a ghastly 17% conversion rate.

In fairness to Crain, he has never been asked to close in his eight-year career. If you believe in "the closing mentality," Crain's change in mindset and preparation knowing that he would be the first choice with a ninth-inning lead could do wonders for him.  Still, Crain seems like an emergency option who would only find regular closing chances if Thornton and Reed both struggled.

Fantasy outlook: No matter who wins the job, the White Sox closer should clearly be the #2 saves option in your fantasy bullpen. Draft a more proven, stable closer as your top saves-getter to give you the breathing room to take a bit of a flyer on Chicago's closer.  Thornton is the favorite at this point but the situation is definitely fluid.

Unlike some of our other Position/Role Battle cases, the Chicago closing battle isn't a zero-sum game, especially if you're in a league that tracks holds. Your ideal "holds guy" is a pitcher who not only collects holds but also racks up strikeouts and has other strong peripherals.  Thornton has been one of baseball's best and most consistent setup men over the last six seasons, averaging 20 holds a year and a 3.29 K/BB ratio in that stretch. Crain's overall career numbers are a bit more hit-and-miss, but he's been stellar the last two years, and Reed's minor league potential speaks for itself.  If you draft Thornton or Crain and they don't end up as the closer, you'll have the nice consolation prize of owning a solid holds guy.  The same goes for Reed unless the White Sox send him back down to Triple-A.

The other x-factor is that we don't yet know how Ventura (a rookie to not just the Major League managing ranks but to any level of pro coaching) intends to deploy his bullpen.  Will Ventura use the standard practice of having one primary closer, or could he mix things up?  Between Thornton and Crain, the possibility exists for a lefty-righty closing platoon depending on matchups, so Ventura has some room to be creative with the closer's job. 

This, of course, might be great for Chicago's chances of winning games, but it's not what you want from the standpoint of fantasy stability.  If Thornton wins the closer's job and you draft him, don't hesitate to also pick up Crain or Reed as a handcuff.  Best-case scenario, you get both a top closer and a top holds guy, mirroring those shrewd fantasy owners who handcuffed Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters last year.

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Closer Report: Chicago White Sox

The White Sox will once again employ Bobby Jenks as their closer.  He's being drafted in the 14th round, which isn't too pricey.  Jenks had sharp peripherals in 2009, aside from a 1.5 HR/9.  He did post the highest flyball rate of his career, so that will be a mild concern entering 2010.

The other concern is that Jenks could be traded.  He's earning $7.5MM, and has been named in past rumors.  If Kenny Williams pulls the trigger, keep an eye on J.J. Putz and Matt Thornton.  Putz has the closing experience, but hasn't been dominant since '07.  Thornton is the whole package, but sometimes teams don't like to use lefties in the closer role.  I consider Putz the mild favorite, but it really depends on how each are throwing at the time of a Jenks trade.

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A Look At Gordon Beckham

The White Sox called up top prospect Gordon Beckham; he's playing third base and batting eighth today against the A's in his debut.  He will play regularly for the Sox, and could see time at second base, shortstop, and the hot corner.  Fantasy leaguers, of course, hope he gets middle infield eligibility.  Ozzie Guillen seems willing to stick with Chris Getz at second base though.

It was a short stay in the minors for Beckham, who was drafted just a year ago.  He's played only 44 games in the high minors, displaying good doubles power.  He's only attempted three steals in 58 games in his minor league career, so I wouldn't look for SBs.

Beckham's minor league work this year translates to .276/.314/.448 in the bigs.  Scouting reports praise his power, but those doubles will have to start clearing the wall for it to translate to fantasy baseball power.  Like Andrew McCutchen, I can't say I expect big things from Beckham in fantasy as a rookie.  Both players seem like guys who won't kill you but won't be much different from other waiver wire fodder.

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Carlos Quentin: Overrated?

Carlos Quentin is being drafted in the late third/early fourth round (position 37.76).  He's being picked 14th among outfielders.  Is this he a good pick at that point in the draft?

I'd say that if Quentin is able to muster a .290-30-100-100-5 season, he's worthy of being drafted in that spot.  Those are lofty heights, but the guy hit five home runs in his worst month this year.  If he wasn't coming off a wrist injury, I'd feel OK about him as the 37th pick.

Quentin has Jason Bay and Nick Markakis being taken before him, Alex Rios, Vladimir Guerrero, and Matt Kemp after.  Once again I really like Kemp.  He does it all, and should come close to 20 HR and 30 SBs.  I think Kemp has top five outfielder potential in 2009.

That's my other qualm with the early pick for Quentin.   I prefer to build my offense around power/speed guys, and Quentin doesn't bring the SBs.  I don't see him as a bust by any means, but I can't see myself taking him with my fourth-round pick.  It just seems like I'd be "buying high."

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Target Thornton For White Sox Saves

Sox Machine has the rundown on the battle to close in Bobby Jenks' absence:

Barring an outrageous matchup (three straight lefty-mashing righties), Thornton, a.k.a. Easy Heat, should be first in line with the ninth inning rolls around, with Dotel next in line.  At this point, Linebrink should be working the seventh.

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Carlos Quentin Off To Hot Start

25 year-old White Sox left fielder Carlos Quentin is off to a blazing start with a .312/.454/.623 line in 77 at-bats.  Roto-wise, that's .312-6-20-20-2.  Using a complicated projection method  (multiplying everything by six) we get a season line of .312-36-120-120-12.  Fantasy baseball gold!

Seriously though, is the kid for real?  Let's start with the batting average.  He has a respectable 84.4% contact rate and a fantastic 14.4% walk rate.  (And six HBPs to further boost that OBP).  Though he admittedly played in hitters' parks in the minors, he did hit .312 in 379 games.  He can probably hit .280-.290.

Does he have 30 HR power?  I'm thinking more like 22-25 but Baseball America did note above average power in their '06 handbook.  Doesn't hurt that his home ballpark inflates right-handed homers by 26%.  He's batted sixth and seventh, making 100 ribbies a long shot.  Think 85-90 though.  Quentin's not much of a base-stealing threat so be happy if he sniffs double digits.

All in all a quality roto pickup who could put up Jeff Francoeur-like numbers, maybe a few less RBIs. 

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A Look At John Danks

Is White Sox lefty John Danks for real?  Let's attempt to figure it out.  The early returns:

4 starts
23.2 IP
5.92 IP/start
3.04 ERA
1.01 WHIP
6.08 K/9
2.66 BB/9
2.29 K/BB
6.46 H/9
.250 BABIP
0.00 HR/9
0.0% HR/flyball
48.5% groundball rate (up 13.7% from '07)

Many factors have come together for his hot start, which is comprised of three stellar outings and one bombing at the hands of the Twins. 

Danks' control wasn't horrible last year at 3.5 BB/9, but this is a nice improvement.  He matched his current walk rate in April, July, and August of last year.  It's hard to say if he can keep it up all year.

His .250 BABIP is off his team's .303 mark, but not ridiculously so.  Danks was at .317 last year, but he would've given up more than a hit per inning even adjusting for that.  Best case is probably 8.5 H/9 or so.

It's the home run rate that's truly unsustainable (obviously he will be homered upon at some point).  This was a huge problem for Danks in '07 and his home park didn't help.  The greatly increased groundball rate says he can be at least league average in this regard.

Qualitatively, we know that Danks has a new cutter this year.  In a Baseball America profile from '07, they rated his changeup and curve as above average and noted number two starter potential.  He is only 23 and has often been young for his league.  Maybe '07 was his adjustment period and he really has arrived.

I can see Danks posting a 3.90 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this year.  One consideration is that he was cut off at 139 innings last year and is unlikely to exceed 170 this year.  In a ten or twelve team mixed league Danks is worth using as one of your last starters.  I'm more interested to see what he can do with 200 innings in 2009.

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Mark Gonzales Interview

Mark Gonzales is the Chicago White Sox beat writer for the Chicago Tribune.  This week Mark was kind enough to do an interview for RotoAuthority.com.  Check out Mark's well-informed, sometimes surprising answers below. 

RotoAuthority:  Should the White Sox use Brandon McCarthy as a starter or a reliever for the playoffs?

Mark Gonzales:  I believe McCarthy should have been on the roster. Simply, he deserved to be on the roster. If the Sox plan to add him to the ALCS roster should they make it that far, he will have no game action for at least nine days and probably two weeks.

RA: Does Carl Everett deserve his reputation as one of baseball's biggest jerks?

MG:  Speaking for myself, Carl Everett has treated me very well. He's good with his teammates. Sure, he has strong opinions on certain topics. But he knows how to play the game. He slides hard and clean into second base to break up double plays. He once pointed out to us early in April that Tadahito Iguchi would have to learn quickly that base runners aren't as gentlemanly as those in Japan and would have to adjust accordingly. All I can tell you is that Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News liked covering Carl, and Shea Hillenbrand appreciated learning from Carl during his days in Boston.

RA: Anything interesting about Ozzie that the general public might not know?

MG: He's very committed to his charity work, yet he doesn't let the whole world know about his efforts.

RA: Can the White Sox lineup score enough runs to succeed in the playoffs? Why do you think the team doesn't recognize the importance of OBP?

MG: Even after a 14-run performance in Game 1, the jury is still out on the offense. But they seem more relaxed and confident now that Scott Podsednik is getting on base more often. The White Sox are what I call a tools organization. They'll take their chances with Juan Uribe, A.J. Pierzynski and Joe Crede because the upside is so great.

RA: Your 2005 White Sox MVP and why?

MG: Paul Konerko is the granite of this team. His defense has gotten better, but his bat is the biggest plus.

RA: Will Ozzie really retire if the Sox win the World Series?

MG: I don't think so. Ozzie is too young to step away from this (as well as three more years guaranteed).

RA: What is the chance of Frank Thomas returning for 2006 at a reduced rate?

MG: It all depends on Frank's ankle. If it heals by spring training, I think you'll see him back. But keep in mind that the Sox have to find a spot for Brian Anderson somewhere in the lineup. He's done enough at Triple-A Charlotte, and Carl Everett also is an option (perhaps at a reduced rate).

RA: Has Bobby Jenks shown enough to be anointed the full-time closer in 2006? Or do you think Ozzie will just play the match-ups and the hot hand when choosing late-inning relievers?

MG: A lot depends on Bobby's ability to put some tail in his fastball and Hermanson's health. Ozzie hasn't been afraid to use the hot hand, so this could be a work in progress again.

RA: Let's say you replace Kenny Williams. What size and length contract would you offer Paul Konerko this winter, if any?

MG: Four years, $44 million. The man deserves it, based on his production and durability.

RA: What free agents do you expect the Sox to pursue this offseason? Will A.J. Burnett or Nomar Garciaparra be in the mix?

MG: Ken Williams realizes the free agent market is thin. It might be best to re-sign Konerko and add a "swing" pitcher who can start and relieve.

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