Chicago Cubs

Position/Role Battles: The Cubs' First Baseman

Bryan LaHair took an unlikely path to a Major League first-base job.  An unheralded 39th-round draft pick of the Mariners in 2002, LaHair plugged away in the minors for years, putting up solid numbers at the lower levels but stubbing his toe (a .661 OPS in 150 plate appearances) when he got his chance with Seattle in 2008.   The M's let LaHair go, he signed with the Cubs, and proceeded to put up whopping numbers at Triple-A Iowa in both 2010 and 2011. He was called back up to the Majors last September and made the most of his second chance, hitting .288/.377/.508 in 69 plate appearances, a performance that made him Chicago's incumbent first baseman going into the 2012 season.

Great story notwithstanding, Cubs fans were no doubt hoping their new GM would bring Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder or another superstar first sacker to town this offseason.  The Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer management team, however, eschewed adding (another) big contract to the Cubs' payroll and instead made a long-term move by acquiring star prospect Anthony Rizzo from the Padres. 

Rizzo is clearly "their guy," as Epstein originally drafted Rizzo in Boston and Hoyer traded for him last year when he was San Diego's GM, but that doesn't mean the Cubs are in any rush to immediately put Rizzo in the everyday lineup.  Hoyer has already stated that Rizzo will begin this year in Triple-A for more seasoning in the wake of his disappointing .181/.281/.242 line in 153 PAs with the Padres last season.

For fantasy purposes, then, we have a clear handcuff situation.  If you're able to draft both LaHair and Rizzo, great.  If not, then the LaHair owner will be nervously checking the Triple-A boxscores to see if Rizzo is on the verge of a callup and the Rizzo owner will be hoping that he doesn't have to stash Rizzo on his bench for too long.  While the situation seems clear on paper, however, judging which player has the more fantasy value in 2012 itself is a bit harder to gauge.

LaHair, 29, is still very much a wild card heading into next year, as one doesn't want to make too much of a September cup of coffee.  Roto Authority's Mike Axisa didn't even give LaHair as much as an honorable mention in his recent first base position rankings.  This said, LaHair's recent minor league success can't be ignored, and Wrigley Field is a great place to play if you're a slugging first baseman.  I'd expect LaHair to at least be able to hit right-handed pitching, with right-handed utilityman Jeff Baker getting some starts against southpaws.

Rizzo is coming off his biggest minor league season yet (a 1.056 OPS 413 PAs for Triple-A Tucson) but those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.  In fact, Rizzo was in a way too successful, as his stint in the PCL gave him some bad swing habits.  Since Hoyer admitted that calling Rizzo up last year "was a mistake," he could take the opposite tack now and give Rizzo an entire season in Triple-A.  It's quite possible that Rizzo might not get the call up to Wrigley until the rosters expand in September, though Cubs fans and media will certainly pressure Hoyer to do if Rizzo is raking in Iowa and LaHair is struggling.

The good news for LaHair is that if he plays well, he won't entirely lose his job in the case of a Rizzo call-up.  LaHair can play both corner outfield spots --- he could split time in left with Alfonso Soriano if Soriano struggles or is injured again, and he could play right field against right-handers, with David DeJesus moving to center to spell Marlon Byrd against a tough righty.  Byrd and DeJesus could also both be midseason trade candidates, opening up a spot for LaHair or possibly prospect Brett Jackson. 

Fantasy outlook: I'd forecast LaHair for at least 350 plate appearances in 2012.  Given his minor league numbers and his positional versatility, LaHair is not just a placeholder; he carries some quality sleeper potential as a late- or final-round pick in your draft.  You can try to handcuff him with Rizzo if you have the bench space and are willing to wait a potentially long time for Rizzo to arrive in the Majors.  Otherwise, Rizzo could go undrafted and you'll have to brave a waiver-wire frenzy later in the season if he's called up.

Keep an eye on Rizzo's spring numbers, however, since that could set you up for a nice little sell-high tactic.  If Rizzo has a big Spring Training but the Cubs are adamant that he'll start the season in the minors, draft him anyway in your fantasy league.  Then, use the hype and a "oh, the Cubs will call him up soon" line of reasoning to try and deal Rizzo to another fantasy owner for a player who will have a clearer Major League impact right away.  Best-case scenario is that you'll ride the hype to acquire a player who can contribute now, while your opponent wastes a roster spot on a player who's in the minors for months.  The worst-case scenario if, of course, that Rizzo is called up early and starts annihilating Major League pitching...but hey, when are the Cubs ever that lucky?

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Gregg Removed From Closer Role

Cubs manager Lou Piniella announced early this morning that he plans to make late innings changes, according to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.  Kevin Gregg's West Coast implosion is the perfect fantasy opportunity - it's time to add Carlos Marmol, Angel Guzman, or both if you can.

The Cubs have tried to maintain Marmol as the setup man all year long, despite a maddening 52 walks in 56.3 innings.  Guzman has far better control, though his strikeout rate has been mediocre in recent months.  Here's how I see it: Piniella will probably soon announce an inclination toward Marmol, even though Guzman makes more sense.  This may not be a fantasy dilemma for you, as Marmol is already owned in many leagues.  So just add Guzman and see what happens.

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What The Hell Is Wrong With...Geovany Soto?

First up in our What The Hell Is Wrong With...series, Cubs catcher Geovany Soto.  The 25 year-old catcher has two hits in 24 plate appearances on the young season.  Granted, the Cubs' season is less than 7% over.  But, Soto has been a complete non-factor in fantasy baseball so far.

First off, Soto's WBC appearance threw off his preparation.  He fell behind in his hitting prep and put on some pounds, according to Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald in March.  On April 7th, Soto left the Cubs' game against the Astros due to shoulder soreness/discomfort.  He said it wasn't the first time he's had this type of discomfort.  The MRI came back clean, and Soto returned on the 12th as a pinch-hitter.

Soto set the bar pretty high with his Rookie of the Year numbers - .285-23-86-66-0 in 494 ABs last year.  That's an expectation of about 4 HR and 14 RBI per month.  His worst month last year was July; he posted a .740 OPS and still managed 4 HR and 11 RBI.  You hate to see a catcher get off to a slow start, since you expect to see their best numbers in the first half before they get worn down.

Soto typically was drafted in the sixth round this year, after Russell Martin and Brian McCann among catchers.  I sprung for him in the fifth round of the RotoAuthority league, with Martin, McCann, and Joe Mauer already off the board.  Victor Martinez went in the sixth round, and that pick is working out well for Philly Cheez so far.  (By the way, Cult of Personality snagged Yadier Molina in the 23rd and Brandon Inge was an April 1st free agent pickup by Volvo Wagon Dynasty). 

All of that might be interesting (at least to me) but the bottom line is that with Soto and other slow starters, draft position and the stats so far are sunk costs.  He's on your roster, there's nothing better out there, and you have to wait and hope he starts hitting in May.  At least we have an explanation for Soto's April.  Baseball Prospectus has his Collapse Rate at 16% - basically the chance that his offense decreases by 20%+ compared to his established performance.  I think Soto will be fine, and it's just a matter of catching up after the WBC.

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Felix Pie Traded To Orioles

The Cubs traded Felix Pie to the Orioles on Saturday for Garrett Olson and a minor league pitcher.  The move may have fantasy impact.

The Orioles seem intent on giving Pie a good chunk of playing time as their left fielder, much as they handed a job to Adam Jones in 2008.  Like Jones, Pie is a power/speed threat for fantasy baseball.  If Pie gets 500 ABs, he could hit .270 with more than 10 HR and possibly 20 SBs.  You can grab him at the end of most mixed league drafts.

Olson is mildly intriguing, as he's moving to the NL.  The southpaw could be decent given a rotation spot.  Best case, he winds up in San Diego as part of a Jake Peavy deal.

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Milton Bradley To The Cubs

Milton Bradley reached an agreement with the Cubs worth about three years and $30 million.  Bradley, like J.D. Drew, is a good player who doesn't translate well to fantasy baseball.  He's often out of the lineup with an injury, preventing him from racking up counting stats.  And his strong OBP gets ignored in many leagues.  He's being drafted in the 14th round, and Cubs hype could push him up another round.  Three outfielders you can draft later who should be more valuable: Nelson Cruz, Lastings Milledge, and Jayson Werth.

Which brings me to my next point, that the Rangers losing Bradley should lead to a regular job for Cruz.  Cruz is my favorite sleeper for 2009.  Troy Patterson says he's heading into overhyped territory, a fair point.  But that is more true in the insular world of hardcore fantasy baseball geeks than in the league with your buddies or even in the poorly written $8 magazine you'll surely buy.

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Ryan Dempster Examined

Ryan Dempster, typically undrafted in mixed leagues, had a massive season in 2008.  He was ninth in baseball with a 2.96 ERA, and added a 1.21 WHIP, 17 wins, and 187 strikeouts.  Dempster had been mostly a reliever since 2003.  Let's take a closer look at his season.

2.96 ERA
1.21 WHIP
17 wins
15.7 expected wins
206.6 innings
6.26 innings per start
8.14 K/9
3.31 BB/9
7.58 H/9
.283 BABIP vs. .295 team BABIP
0.61 HR/9
7.6% HR per flyball rate
48.1% groundball rate

Trying to take a stab at manually projecting Dempster for next year, let's go with these rates: 7.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 8.3 H/9, 0.85 HR/9.  Basically I am just trying to be conservative, especially with his hit and home run rates. 

If I plug in those numbers I get something in the neighborhood of a 3.80 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  Kind of in the range of Gil Meche this year. You'd like to see your mixed league team as a whole post an ERA around 3.70, a WHIP around 1.25.  So guys like Dempster or Meche are mostly helping you in wins and strikeouts, though ERA can vary wildly.

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Kosuke Fukudome's Hot Start

Josh Kalk has been doing great work studying PITCHf/x data.  Check out his blog here and Hardball Times contributions here.  Josh decided to examine Kosuke Fukudome's hot start in a guest post for RotoAuthority.com.  His post follows.

Kosuke Fukudome has taken the league by storm starting off hitting .328/.444/.463.  He was billed as a combination of Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui and he has lived up to that so far.  But Jason Kendall has also started off batting .345/.400/.483 so the question for fantasy owners remains, should you sell high on Fukudome or hold to him?

The first thing to look at is Fukudome's BABIP, which is a lofty .396 right now.  While I expect him to end up with a BABIP that is above league average his is almost certainly at least a little over his head right now.  Still, even with a small correction down he would be a solid addition to any fantasy roster.  The main question is will the league catch up to him as the year goes on?  This is where his PITCHf/x data really comes in handy.  Here is a look at every tracked fastball Fukudome has faced:

 

The first thing to notice on this plot is that Fukudome rarely swings and missed at a pitch.  One the other hand look at how many pitches he is fouling off.  Many of those fouled pitches came with two strikes as Fukudome was protecting the plate.  This is where the Ichiro comparisons come from.  Unlike Ichiro look at home many balls Fukudome takes for a strike.  Early in the count Fukudome is generally content to wait for his pitch.  I have overlaid the MLB defined strike zone but as you can see here, the umpires tend to give the pitcher a few more inches on corners.  This patience has allowed Fukudome to walk 14 times compared to just 13 strikeouts.  This is an excellent sign and I fully expect this to continue thought the year.  How does Fukudome handle off speed pitches?  Here is all the change ups thrown to Fukudome:

Again Fukudome rarely swings at pitches outside the strike zone.  For a full breakdown you can look at his player card here.  The standard approach to a left handed batter is hard stuff up and in with soft stuff down and away.  But if you don't throw those pitches for strikes Fukudome just isn't swinging at them.  So how should pitchers go about pitching to him?

In my opinion the way to attack Fukudome is get ahead early.  While Fukudome will jump on a get me over curve if you make a quality pitch in the strike zone early in the count he will more than likely lay off.  Once ahead, instead of trying to get him to chase pitches away I would bust him in with fastballs.  While most left handers love pitches low and in Fukudome seems to prefer the ball middle away.  In fact, with two strikes he will very often try to go the other way even with a ball inside.  So bust him in with those fastballs when you get two strikes.  If you absolutely need a strikeout then a ball down will probably be more effective than a ball outside.

All signs point to a very good year by Fukudome.  The first key to success to hitting is swinging at strikes and Fukudome clearly has that down.  Because of his patience Fukudome is seeing a huge amount of pitches which greatly increases the chances of a pitcher making a mistake.  When he gets that mistake Fukudome isn't swinging and missing either.  It would take a huge offer to pry Fukudome from my roster if I am a fantasy owner.

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Time To Worry About Rich Hill

After just two starts, one of which was solid?  Yes.  Because that's the Cubs.  Hill, whose problems often seem mental, always seems at risk of being pulled from the Cubs' rotation.  Given the presence of Jon Lieber, it's a very real possibility.  Ted Lilly has been worse than Hill this year, but Lilly is paid far too much to be pulled.  Plus, Hill had a severe case of the yips in Spring Training.

Despite being one of Hill's biggest supporters for a couple of years, I am concerned that he could become a major fantasy bust this year.  If you own him, there's nothing you can do right now. 

There's something to be said for giving some extra weight to a pitcher's "stuff" during your draft.  Normally I don't, instead trusting my dollar values.  But my gut says that I'd rather have the bat-breaking repertoires of Felix Hernandez and Johnny Cueto over the 89 mph heaters of Lilly and Hill. 

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2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Kosuke Fukudome

As an unknown commodity, Kosuke Fukudome is not getting enough respect in fantasy leagues in my opinion.  He's being drafted around the 14th round, but looks like a poor man's Bobby Abreu to me.  And Abreu goes in the fourth round.

I have Fukudome at .281-18-85-93-10 in 550 ABs, a $10.44 value.  But if he bats third and posts a .400 OBP, there's reason to believe he could top the RBI and run projections.  And Fukudome himself projected 15-20 swipes.  It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him as a top 20 outfielder, but he's going 41st among them.  My biggest concern is that he doesn't match the 18 HR projection.

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2006 Chicago Cubs Schedule

The Cubs are usually the last team to put out their schedule, and it's not out yet.  I guess they want to build suspense.  Nonetheless, Al from Bleed Cubbie Blue took on the project of determining the Cubs 2006 schedule based on ones that have already been released for other teams.  Reminds me of one of those word problems from 4th grade.  Man, I hated those.  Anyway, thanks Al!  Follow the link to check it out.

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