Catchers

The Catcher Dropoff

Sometimes a position has a clear dropoff.  Catchers are bunched up that way this year, in my opinion.  I see the five elite, and then a mixed bag of other stuff.  I hate to leave a draft without one of these five.

1. Russell Martin - .286-16-74-82-15 in 504 ABs - $23.20.  ADP: 30.88.  Martin, Joe Mauer, and perhaps J.R. Towles are the only backstops you can look to for double-digit steals.  That is one reason I'd take Martin over V-Mart - Martin provides more balance to your lineup.  Plus, Martin is only 25.  Compare this projection to his '07 numbers - I'm not calling for a repeat, but imagine if you get it!  Gravy.

2.  Victor Martinez - .297-20-93-78-0 in 546 ABs - $22.21.  ADP: 29.28.  The market says V-Mart and Martin are almost identical and value, and I have them separated by only ninety-nine cents.  If V-Mart pops 22 HRs and drives in 95 instead, he wins. And just like Martin, I'm not calling for a repeat for Martinez but his '07 shows what he can do.

3.  Joe Mauer - .309-11-71-76-9 in 492 ABs - $21.12.  ADP: 59.13.  Instead of using a very early third-round pick for one of the above two, you could roll the dice a bit and wait til the fifth.  This projection is something of a middle ground of Mauer's last two seasons.  Like Martin, it's his age 25 season and there's room for growth.  The guy won the batting title in '06.         

4.  Brian McCann - .290-20-85-62-1 in 481 ABs - $18.17.  ADP: 55.89.  If Mauer is Martin Lite, then McCann is V-Mart Lite.   Just 24, McCann knocked in 92 runs in an "off year" in '07.  The low run total kind of stinks though.

5. Jorge Posada - .284-19-78-74-2 in 466 ABs - $17.22.  ADP: 91.23.  Wow, eighth round for Posada?  To me, the lack of respect is an overcorrection.  People think, "Posada, he can't hit .338 again!  And he's old!"  So what?  A repeat of his '06 would be worth $18.98.  There is no good reason for the ADP gap between Posada and Mauer/McCann.  This is not an aggressive projection for Posada.  It is very achievable and worthy of better than the eighth round. 

After Posada there's a clear dropoff.  Soto and Towles at $12, Johjima at $11, Molina at $9, Ruiz, Pierzynski, Pudge, and Ramon Hernandez around $7.  Johjima typically kicks this tier off in the 11th round.  I see nice value for Molina and Ruiz if I stoop to this tier.  And I have to say again - why the hell is the market putting Salty in this group?  No.

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A Little Caution On J.R. Towles

I've been hyping Houston's J.R. Towles pretty often here on RotoAuthority as a sleeper at the catcher position.  He's intriguing in two-catcher mixed leagues or NL-only leagues.

I project Towles at .271-11-57-60-11 in 388 ABs, an $11.91 value.  That's seventh among backstops.  However, there are reasons for caution here.

• Towles is currently dealing with a strained hamstring.  Say that instead of 11 steals, he's careful because of the hammie and his precarious rookie status and just swipes two.  35% of his value disappears.
• Towles started last year in A ball.  He played 26 games there, 61 at Double A, 13 at Triple A, and 15 in the bigs.  So, just a half season worth of high minors seasoning.
• He's a rookie catcher learning to handle a big league staff.  That's a tad stressful, and it could affect his hitting.
• The Astros have loved Brad Ausmus for far too long, and if he were to split the gig evenly with Towles I would not be shocked.
• So make sure you have a good #1 if you're going to use Towles as your #2.  And if you went a few extra bucks for more known commodities like Kenji Johjima, Bengie Molina, Carlos Ruiz, or Ryan Doumit, I would not fault you.  Hell, Jorge Posada seems to be getting no love in fantasy leagues, and he's not much worse than Martin/Martinez/Mauer/McCann (the Four Ms).

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2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Catchers

Let's get back to basics and find undervalued players at each position.  I'm definitely interested to hear your sleepers in the comments.  We'll start with backstops today.

• I have a feeling the word is fully out on the Cubs' Geovany Soto; hell, he's on the cover of the new Baseball Prospectus annual.  I have him at .279-18-68-58-0, an $11.98 value (sixth among catchers).  Soto's being picked in the 14th round, foolishly after Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
• Playing in a smaller market, Houston's J.R. Towles gets less press than Soto.  I value him at only pennies less though, with a .271-11-57-60-11 line.  Russell Martin is the only other backstop projected to reach double digit swipes.  New Astros baserunning instructor Gary Redus will work one-on-one with him, which bodes well.  Towles is being drafted in the 17th round, foolishly after Ivan Rodriguez.   
• Carlos Ruiz projects at .271-11-56-50-5, a $7.67 value.  That puts him 10th in my rankings, but he is being drafted in the 25th round as if he's the 20th best catcher.
• I'm a Ryan Doumit fan; I have him at .271-13-51-48-2 in 350 ABs.  If he manages to find 450 ABs (maybe via an Xavier Nady trade), he's up there with Soto and Towles.
• Michael Barrett and Ramon Hernandez were absolute studs in 2006; now they're chopped liver.  Barrett would need a trade or injury to find full-time duty.  A healthy Hernandez could work his way up the Orioles' batting order and post a 20-80 season.
• Dioner Navarro is making some sleeper lists on the virtue of two fine months to close out his '07 season.  Here's something to consider: if he can replicate his August-September '07 performance for all of '08, he's the sixth best catcher in fantasy baseball at .294-18-69-75-0 (not far behind Jorge Posada).  Remember that as he goes undrafted in your mixed league.

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