Catchers

Catcher Rankings

It's time to bust out our tentative catcher rankings for two-catcher, 12-team mixed leagues using AVG, HR, RBI, R, and SB.  These are subject to change, and I'm open to arguments in the comments.  Current average draft round is in parentheses.

1. Joe Mauer (2) - $30.33
2. Brian McCann (4) - $23.19
3. Victor Martinez (3) - $20.43
4. Matt Wieters (9) - $17.41
5. Russell Martin (12) - $16.85
6. Mike Napoli (15) - $15.67
7. Geovany Soto (13) - $13.65
8. Kurt Suzuki (12) - $12.72
9. Ryan Doumit (18) - $10.80
10. Jorge Posada (10) - $10.30
11. Bengie Molina (14) - $9.91
12. Miguel Montero (13) - $9.55
13. A.J. Pierzynski (22) - $8.26
14. Chris Iannetta (16) - $8.16
15. Yadier Molina (20) - $7.75
16. Kelly Shoppach (27) - $5.52
17. Ramon Hernandez (26) - $5.44
18. Carlos Ruiz (23) - $5.02
19. John Buck (28) - $3.88
20. John Baker (27) - $3.53
21. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (27) - $3.38
22. Gerald Laird (27) - $1.52
23. Nick Hundley (28) - $1.20
24. Gregg Zaun (not drafted) - $1.00

The problem with projecting a lot of these guys is figuring out playing time.  How many ABs will Napoli, Doumit, Posada, Montero, Iannetta, Shoppach, Hernandez, and Baker get?  Right now we can only guess; the projections will be refined if managers are revealing during Spring Training.

We're calling for a bit of a bounceback for Martin, and he is the one real SB threat, but I'm still wary.  If you decide to take a pass on the Big Three, I'd attempt to get Wieters and/or Soto in rounds 9-13.  Those two could enter McCann/V-Mart territory depending on their spots in the batting order.

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What The Hell Is Wrong With...Geovany Soto?

First up in our What The Hell Is Wrong With...series, Cubs catcher Geovany Soto.  The 25 year-old catcher has two hits in 24 plate appearances on the young season.  Granted, the Cubs' season is less than 7% over.  But, Soto has been a complete non-factor in fantasy baseball so far.

First off, Soto's WBC appearance threw off his preparation.  He fell behind in his hitting prep and put on some pounds, according to Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald in March.  On April 7th, Soto left the Cubs' game against the Astros due to shoulder soreness/discomfort.  He said it wasn't the first time he's had this type of discomfort.  The MRI came back clean, and Soto returned on the 12th as a pinch-hitter.

Soto set the bar pretty high with his Rookie of the Year numbers - .285-23-86-66-0 in 494 ABs last year.  That's an expectation of about 4 HR and 14 RBI per month.  His worst month last year was July; he posted a .740 OPS and still managed 4 HR and 11 RBI.  You hate to see a catcher get off to a slow start, since you expect to see their best numbers in the first half before they get worn down.

Soto typically was drafted in the sixth round this year, after Russell Martin and Brian McCann among catchers.  I sprung for him in the fifth round of the RotoAuthority league, with Martin, McCann, and Joe Mauer already off the board.  Victor Martinez went in the sixth round, and that pick is working out well for Philly Cheez so far.  (By the way, Cult of Personality snagged Yadier Molina in the 23rd and Brandon Inge was an April 1st free agent pickup by Volvo Wagon Dynasty). 

All of that might be interesting (at least to me) but the bottom line is that with Soto and other slow starters, draft position and the stats so far are sunk costs.  He's on your roster, there's nothing better out there, and you have to wait and hope he starts hitting in May.  At least we have an explanation for Soto's April.  Baseball Prospectus has his Collapse Rate at 16% - basically the chance that his offense decreases by 20%+ compared to his established performance.  I think Soto will be fine, and it's just a matter of catching up after the WBC.

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Catcher Draft Trends

Assuming a 12-team league, let's take a look at the typical draft trends for catchers using Mock Draft Central data.

The catcher train typically gets rolling with Russell Martin in the 4th round.  Brian McCann goes a few picks later, and then Joe Mauer a few after that (Mauer often in the 5th).  Those are the elite three, and I have them all within pennies of each other in dollar value. 

The next tier includes Geovany Soto and Victor Martinez.  These guys go around the 6-7th rounds.  In my opinion Soto is worth $4.69 more, so don't treat them as interchangeable.

The next tier doesn't get moving until the 11th round with Ryan Doumit.  I see Doumit with a value comparable to V-Mart, so it's worth waiting if it's between the two.  Matt Wieters goes a few picks after Doumit, an entirely reasonable place for him.  Then you'll see Chris Iannetta in the 12th and Mike Napoli in the 13th.  You know I'm a big Napoli fan.

In the 15th round, Bengie Molina kicks off the next group.  There's a lull until Jorge Posada goes in the 18th (intriguing) and Jeff Clement goes in the 19th.  Drafters are digging Clement but I think there are better choices.  Four guys go in succession starting in the 20th: Dioner Navarro, A.J. Pierzynski, Ramon Hernandez, and Kurt Suzuki.  I'll take Pierzynski and Hernandez, of that group.

In the 23rd round, Gerald Laird kicks off a string of late picks.  He's followed by Brandon Inge (nice value), Kelly Shoppach, Kenji Johjima, Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Varitek, and Yadier Molina.  So now we've seen the top 24 catchers as valued by the market.  Seems like drafters go for names they know at the endgame.

Undrafted backstops worth considering over many of those veterans: Chris Snyder, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and J.R. Towles.

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Catcher Rankings

Here is a tentative look at my catcher rankings and dollar values for a two-catcher 12-team mixed league.  These will definitely be tweaked plenty before draft day.

I used 20 games for eligibility, so Pablo Sandoval (11 games caught) did not make the cut.  If he had, he'd be just below the range of Ryan Doumit and Geovany Soto.  Sandoval's eligibility is a huge factor in two-catcher mixed leagues, especially if the Giants do not acquire a third baseman.  Taylor Teagarden (12 games caught) would also be draftable if eligible.

Here's the list, with draft round in parentheses.

1. Brian McCann - $19.72 (4)
2. Joe Mauer - $19.21 (5)
3. Russell Martin - $18.89 (4)
4. Mike Napoli - $17.83 (13)
5. Victor Martinez - $16.61 (7)
6. Geovany Soto - $15.36 (6)
7. Ryan Doumit - $15.30 (11)
8. Matt Wieters - $13.14 (11)
9. Chris Iannetta - $10.67 (12)
10. Bengie Molina - $10.53 (14)
11. Jorge Posada - $9.10 (18)
12. Ramon Hernandez - $7.42 (22)
13. A.J. Pierzynski - $6.82 (21)
14. Brandon Inge - $5.43 (24)
15. Chris Snyder - $5.06 (27)
16. Kelly Shoppach - $4.42 (23)
17. Miguel Olivo - $3.70 (28)
18. Gerald Laird - $3.28 (23)
19. Dioner Navarro - $3.11 (21)
20. Kurt Suzuki - $2.71 (21)
21. J.R. Towles - $2.13 (28)
22. Yadier Molina - $1.80 (26)
23. Rod Barajas - $1.68 (28)
24. Jesus Flores - $1.00 (28)

The problem with dollar values is that they hinge on playing time.  Among these 24, there is extra uncertainty with Napoli, Wieters, Shoppach, Olivo, and Towles.  Catchers such as Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jason Varitek, Carlos Ruiz, John Baker, Jeff Clement, Ivan Rodriguez, Miguel Montero, and Kenji Johjima would be in the mix with 400+ ABs.

I like to try to get two of the top seven, but occasionally I'll stretch to the Posada level for my second guy.

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Napoli Could DH

MLB.com's Lyle Spencer continues to beat the drum for the Angels to give Mike Napoli significant time at designated hitter in 2009.  He says Mike Scioscia's stance has softened on the idea recently and it will be discussed during Spring Training.

With 406 ABs, we have Napoli as an $18 player given his catcher eligibility.  We're currently ranking him 5th among catchers due to a projected 26 HR.  Bump that to 500 ABs, though, and Napoli easily passes Joe Mauer as fantasy baseball's most valuable backstop.  His only negative would be a .250 AVG, easily overcome by his other stats.

Napoli is currently being drafted in the 15th round, 10th among catchers.  In a recent Mock Draft I did, I was chilling and waiting to take Napoli in the 14th or 15th.  Instead, some guy using AutoSelect took him in the 11th.  Not sure if it means anything.  MDC says Napoli has been picked as early as the 8th round.  If you become dead set on Napoli, and that's a dangerous thing to do with any player, you might have to plan to take him around the 11th or 12th round.  Last year I reached on Rafael Furcal, Corey Hart, and Matt Kemp, and it paid off for the two outfielders.  It is possible to get too reliant on Average Draft Position data.

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Mike Napoli: Top Five Catcher?

One fantasy baseball issue to follow closely for 2009 is the playing time of Angels catcher Mike Napoli.  Napoli got only 227 ABs for the Angels in '08, putting up a massive .273-20-49-39-7 line in that time.  He missed a month due to a shoulder injury, but even without that he would've projected for about 320 ABs. 

When a catcher shows that kind of massive home run power (and speed!), fantasy leaguers get delirious thinking what he could do with 400 ABs.  Reasonably, he'd have a shot at 30 HR, which would probably lead all catchers.  In a November mailbag, MLB.com's Lyle Spencer discussed the idea of having Napoli spend some time at DH, getting him 500-600 ABs.  Let's not get greedy - 400 would be great.  If Napoli is healthy, there's no reason Jeff Mathis should be stealing an abnormal amount of playing time.  The Angels are rumored to be in on various corner outfield/infield types, which would presumably leave less of a chance for Napoli to DH.

If Napoli gets those 400 ABs, he has a legitimate shot at being a top five catcher (and that allows for his AVG to drop under .260).  He is being drafted 11th among catchers, in the 19th round.  One health issue to monitor - he had arthroscopic shoulder surgery on October 31st.

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Catcher Ranking Comparison

My catcher rankings back in March:

Rnk	Name	$ VAL
1	Russell Martin	$23.39
2	Victor Martinez	$22.40
3	Joe Mauer	$21.32
4	Brian McCann	$18.38
5	Jorge Posada	$17.43
6	Geovany Soto	$12.22
7	J.R. Towles	$12.15
8	Kenji Johjima	$11.63
9	Bengie Molina	$8.79
10	Carlos Ruiz	$7.94
11	A.J. Pierzynski	$7.49
12	Ivan Rodriguez	$7.23
13	Ryan Doumit	$6.86
14	Ramon Hernandez	$6.70
15	Ronny Paulino	$6.26
16	Jason Varitek	$6.11
17	Mike Napoli	$5.24
18	Paul Lo Duca	$4.74
19	Chris Snyder	$3.64
20	Kurt Suzuki	$2.32
21	Johnny Estrada	$2.28
22	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	$1.55
23	John Buck	$1.30
24	Josh Bard	$1.00
25	Dioner Navarro	$0.95
26	Gregg Zaun	$0.58
27	Gerald Laird	$0.40
28	Michael Barrett	$0.10
29	Yadier Molina	$0.02

The actual rankings for 2008:

Rnk	Name	Round
1	Joe Mauer	5
2	Brian McCann	5
3	Russell Martin	3
4	Ryan Doumit	26
5	Geovany Soto	14
6	Bengie Molina	19
7	Kelly Shoppach	N/A
8	A.J. Pierzynski	20
9	Chris Iannetta	N/A
10	Yadier Molina	25
11	Ivan Rodriguez	14
12	Kurt Suzuki	27
13	Dioner Navarro	28
14	Ramon Hernandez	21
15	Mike Napoli	23
16	Gerald Laird	28
17	Chris Snyder	27
18	Miguel Olivo	28
19	Rod Barajas	28

Shoppach was the biggest surprise at catcher in 2008.  Doumit and Soto have been huge, but they were definitely on the radar as preseason sleepers.  Suzuki, Navarro, and Iannetta came up at various points in that thread too (though Iannetta only received a brief mention).  Shoppach came up with a .268-21-55-66-0 line in 339 ABs, ranking behind only Soto and McCann in HR. 

Could this have been predicted?  PECOTA had Shoppach at .231/.305/.414 heading into the season, only a slight nod to his power.  He slugged .472 in limited duty with the Indians last year, so it wasn't out of nowhere.  I would've had him down for 16 HR if I knew he was getting 350 ABs.  We couldn't have seen the injury to V-Mart coming.

Martinez, Posada, Towles, and Johjima were high-profile busts.  As a 16th round pick, Towles' rookie failure didn't kill anyone's team.  Those who took Martinez as a top 30 overall pick got burned pretty badly though.  Three of the big five catchers came through, making early-round catcher picks pretty risky this year.  Martinez and Posada are the oldest of the five, so maybe that's the lesson to be taken away.  If you're going catcher early, he'd better be young.  I'd add Soto to the Mauer/McCann/Martin mix for '09, but no other catcher gets into the elite tier.  Martinez could be undervalued, but not if picked in the fifth round.

Don't think you're playing it safe waiting for that third tier crapshoot of catchers, though.  Sure, you might snag a Doumit or a Molina.  But catchers are scarce, and if you guess wrong you could be stuck with crap (Jose rather than Bengie/Yadier) all year.  If you're in a two-catcher league and plan to wait back for both, you'd better add security by drafting a third catcher as a reserve.  You also need to pounce on any chance to upgrade (for example, I dropped Ruiz for Doumit in April in one league).

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A Look At Chris Iannetta

Rockies catcher Chris Iannetta was considered a nice sleeper heading into the 2007 season.  While he did draw quite a few walks, his '07 performance was a fantasy disappointment.  The Rockies were also disillusioned, as they signed Yorvit Torrealba to a two-year deal.

It often happens that a sleeper breaks out one year later than we'd expected.  Iannetta is off to a blazing start, though it's only been 58 ABs.  Iannetta has become the starter, though, so I'll assume he plays in another 95 games and ends up with 375 ABs.

Using only his '08 performance, we'd look for a .328-19-91-52-0 line from Iannetta in those 375 ABs.  That'd be worth $21 and make him a top five catcher.  Obviously Iannetta is a bit over his head.

Coming into this season I had him at .268-11-50-52-1 if he were to get 375 ABs.  That'd be worth $5.30, more than Jason Varitek or Mike Napoli.  If Iannetta simply plays to my projection from here on out, he'll finish at .277-13-56-52-1, a performance worth roughly $8.  This puts him in the range of Bengie Molina, Carlos Ruiz, A.J. Pierzynski, and Ivan Rodriguez.  It seems that Iannetta is a top ten catcher, but we have only 66 plate appearances with which to judge his possible breakout. 

I'd rather have Iannetta than Paul Bako, but I prefer other breakout types like Ryan Doumit or Chris Snyder.  And keep an eye on Dioner Navarro.

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A Look At Chris Snyder

Longtime reader finite24 has been talking up Chris Snyder quite a bit recently, and the Arizona catcher deserves a closer look.

I have the 27 year-old hitting .252-14-54-44-0 in 375 ABs, a $3.64 value.  That's about what he did in '07 except for a few less ABs.  Let's dig a bit deeper though.

• Snyder hit .262-10-37-25-0 in the season's final three months (221 ABs).  It makes you wonder if .262-20-74-50-0 is possible; that'd be worth $10.
• There are signs Bob Melvin might move Snyder up from the eight-hole in the lineup.
• Snyder is clearly ahead of Miguel Montero on the depth chart this year.  Plus, Montero is a bit behind this year because of a broken finger.
• Snyder's hitting .342/.419/.842 with five homers this spring in 38 ABs.  That's .455 above his career SLG of .387, which indicates he will have a better than normal season.
• It's hard not to like Snyder; he's flying under the radar and is a fine endgame catcher.

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Roundtable: Catcher Strategy

I recently contributed to a fantasy baseball roundtable on the subject of catcher strategy.  This was the question:

Is it important to get a top 5 catcher, or do you prefer waiting until rounds 15+? After Victor Martinez and Russell Martin, what catchers should go next and when? What catchers should be targeted late?

I was surprised to see that most of the other contributors did not agree with me on this topic.  What do you think?

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