Baseball Prospectus

Done In By Home Runs

Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Josh Beckett, Jake Peavy, and Scott Baker all posted strong strikeout and walk rates this year, yet all had ERAs of 4.49 or higher.  The problem: home runs allowed.  Shields and Beckett were especially bad, but all five had HR/9 rates of 1.09 or higher.  Can we expect improvement in 2011?

If xFIP had its way, all of their ERAs would be at 4.08 or lower based on their peripherals.  XFIP attempts to iron out abnormal home run per flyball rates, going as far to peg Nolasco at 3.55 instead of his actual 4.51 mark.  Shields gets 3.72 instead of 5.18.

We prefer Baseball Prospectus' SIERA, though.  SIERA likes these five even more, assigning nothing above the 3.84 Beckett received.  Nolasco gets 3.33, Shields 3.57.  I read up on SIERA but couldn't quite wrap my mind around it, so I asked BP's Matt Swartz to explain why it was lower than xFIP for these five pitchers.  I also asked him whether that means SIERA expects better results for the pitchers in 2011 than xFIP does.  His response was helpful:

SIERA is lower than xFIP for those guys because of what we joked should be called "The Johan Effect"-- basically, those guys are likely to give up solo homers when they do give up homers, because they all have good K/BB causing them to have not that many baserunners on when the inevitable home runs are hit.  I think that probably covers all of those guys actually.  I think xFIP and SIERA would agree on the number of expected home runs and disagree about how much to "charge" them for it.

Interesting.  I think Swartz would agree that the home run rates should come down next year for at least Nolasco, Shields, and Beckett.  Both stats clearly suggest ERAs will come down for all five.  They look like good value buys for 2011.

---

Daisuke Matsuzaka Gyroball Video

Today I have highly sought-after video of Daisuke Matsuzaka, Japanese phenom, throwing his mysterious gyroball. 

Read more about Matsuzaka and the gyroball here.   The video is below.

Download gyroballvideo.mpeg

Also, I have some new information concerning the "gyroball revolution" here in the U.S.  Seems that Baseball Prospectus injury guru Will Carroll has taught the pitch to an Indiana high school kid named Joey Niezer.  Will mentioned to me in an August interview that he is the only person who knows how to teach the gyroball.  I thought he was just messing around, but it might be true.  At least in this country.  It's an interesting interview so check it out if you haven't already.

Bonus:  The Juice blog has a QuickTime video up of Niezer throwing the gyroball during practice, filmed from behind a chain-link fence. 

---

Baseball > Football

I loved Dayn Perry's column today at Baseball Prospectus.  It sickens me to see all this NFL hype each year just as baseball careens toward the playoffs.  Football is more violent than baseball, for sure.  But it's definitely not more exciting.  Perry says it best:

"All of this is a long-winded way of saying: I can't begin to fathom how any football fan can say baseball is boring. In baseball, we have more action, no halftime, an infinitely better in-person experience, cheaper tickets, prettier girls and better weather. It's often said that football is made for TV. In my mind, that has more to do with the fact that it's a crashing bore from the stands than it does with any native telegenic merits. Whatever the case, most of America disagrees with me."

---

MLB Free Agents 2006: Rafael Furcal

Ah, Rafael Furcal.  Overrated, underrated, or somewhere in-between?  How should you handle this man when it comes to 2006?

Furcal is playing almost exactly on par with what Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projection system expected.  BP thought Furcal would hit .274 with 12 HR and a .337 OBP.  In fact, he's currently hitting .276 with 11 HR and a .341 OBP.  Not bad. 

The only area in which Baseball Prospectus missed the mark was stolen bases.  Furcal has 38 swipes and could get that number up to 50 if he really wants to.  What PECOTA didn't take into account is that 2005 is Rafael Furcal's contract year.

Furcal will easily set a career high in steals this year, and that can only help in the dollar sign department.  After 2004, Edgar Renteria was coming off a .287-10-72 year, adding 17 steals to the equation.  Unlike Furcal, Renteria does have an awesome season under his belt - he hit .330-13-100 with 34 steals in 2003. 

Since Furcal is three years younger than Renteria, he can be expected to match Renteria's four year, $40 million dollar deal.  The players' defense is probably comparable.  It also doesn't hurt that Furcal has been on fire since July. 

So which team will pony up the cash for baseball's third-best shortstop?  The Diamondbacks and Cubs seem to be the most likely suitors.  The Cubs' interest obviously hinges on the Nomar Garciaparra situation.  We just can't see Dusty playing Ronny Cedeno every day, so the Cubs should end up with one of the two. 

What kind of year should you expect out of Furcal in 2006?  With Ray Durham circa 1999 high on his comparables list, an uptick in power is not out the question.  Think maybe 20 homers on the high end.  We expect Furcal to back off on the thefts and end up with 30 steals, tops.

Unfortunately there are only a handful of 20/30 threats from the shortstop position, and Rafael Furcal is one of them.  If he starts be a more selective, consistent hitter, he may be able to hit .300 as well.  Be ready to go up to $20 on him in your auction this spring.   

Check out all the Roto Authority MLB Free Agents 2006 articles.  You'll find speculation and rumors concerning Johnny Damon, A.J. Burnett, Trevor Hoffman, Brian Giles, B.J. Ryan, and more.   

---

Fantasy Baseball Advice: Duke Nukes 'Em

Three weeks later, it's time to revisit Pittsburgh prospect Zach Duke.  On the heels of yet another dominant victory, we'll look at just how sustainable the 22 year-old's success will be.

When we last spoke of Zach Duke, we implored you to pick him up immediately.   The Roto Authority was singing his praises after two excellent starts to begin his major league career.  We did caution that his ERA would certainly not remain near  1.93.  In a way, we were right:  Duke's ERA now stands at a miniscule 0.92 after 39.1 innings pitched.  Duke struck out just two in today's annihilation of the red-hot Braves, but his performance was still excellent. 

We expected the strikeouts to come back down to Earth, but we also expected the ERA to ascend to the 3.50 range.   Duke has been stingy with the hits and walks, and it's paid off so far.  Throwing out his rain delay game, Duke is averaging 107 pitches per game.  Despite Duke's age, Lloyd McClendon is not giving him the quick hook.  Expect Felix Hernandez's debut this Thursday in Seattle to be much the opposite - he will be limited to 80 pitches and is no lock to stay in the rotation. 

So what to do with Duke from a fantasy baseball perspective?  What can we expect from him in the future? 

Let's turn to Baseball Prospectus's forecasting system, PECOTA, for some estimates.  PECOTA foresaw a 3.28 ERA in 133 innings from Duke as a best case scenario, that is, his 90th percentile projection.   He can do that while maintaining pretty much the same strikeout and walk rates.   An ERA in the 3 range is a reasonable projection for 2005.

What about a long-term projection?  PECOTA sees Duke's top comparables as Mark Buehrle, Rick Wise, and Tommy John.   Duke should be happy to be mentioned in the same breath as these guys at the tender age of 22.  So you're looking at a durable pitcher with an ERA below 3.50 for at least the next five years.  Wins may be hard to come by on a team like the Pirates. 

Should you "sell high" on Zach Duke?  It depends.  Duke's 0.92 ERA and perfect record are obviously over his head.  Still, he's yet to have a bad start and many teams will still be facing him for the first time.  He could easily finish the year 10-2 with a 2.40 ERA.  Even if the success is fleeting, what pitcher could give you better numbers?  Not very many.

Don't deal Duke for a pitcher unless you receive a bona fide young ace, such as Rich Harden, Mark Prior, or Johan Santana.  Since these deals are unlikely, consider an up-and-coming can't miss position player.  David Wright and Miguel Cabrera come to mind.  Position players are more reliable and less susceptible to injury, so if you consider yourself a shrewd pitching evaluator, deal Duke for one of these types.  Names like Jeff Francoeur might seem tempting, but you need top-line proven talent to pull the trigger.

Rock N' Roto: Today we are recommending an obscure, rocking album from the band Ozma.  Ozma's 2001 album Rock and Roll Part Three features eleven power-pop tracks reminiscent of Weezer, back when Weezer rocked.  The album features the best baseball song ever recorded, the aptly titled, "Baseball."  Expect plenty of keyboards and vocal harmonies.  This blogger is right - "Baseball" may well be one of the best ten songs you've never heard. 

---

MLB Trade Rumors: Thoughts From Around the Web

One of The Roto Authority's most respected baseball websites is Baseball Prospectus.  Now you can try BP free for a week - but the $40 yearly subscription fee is money well spent.  Among their many gifted authors we are especially partial to Joe Sheehan and Will Carroll.  Today, Sheehan has some interesting commentary on the plausibility of the various A.J. Burnett trades being bandied about. 

His dismay at trading Bronson Arroyo is similar to our feelings here at The Roto Authority.  These two pitchers are very comparable and Arroyo has several years before free agency.  Sheehan also had this to say, which I thought was worth quoting:

In general, A.J. Burnett has come to be quite overrated on the trade market this summer. He's a good starter, a #2 in many rotations, but he's not a difference-maker or a star, and he's being priced as such. He's the pitcher on the market most likely to be part of a trade that we're still talking about 20 years from now. 

This is an excellent point - trading the farm for an injury-prone #2 starter to give your team a barely noticeable lift can have devastating long-term effects.  It will be interesting to revisit this year's trades in five years and see which superstar was once traded for a Mark Redman or a Danys Baez. 

In addition, here's an interesting conceptual trade quote from Matthew Cerrone over at MetsBlog:

...teams get more value on positional players in the off-season when a larger market can be created.

Cerrone is echoing something preached by the Brewers, and it's a concept I never really considered before.  Pitching is the hot commodity at the deadline, and teams have been extracting tons of value through the years for mediocre starting pitchers on July 31st.  The Zambrano-Kazmir deal is everyone's favorite example. 

But it is a valid point that the Reds should shy away from trading Adam Dunn until the offseason, when some team decides they must have a power-hitting outfielder.  Apparently the Brewers subscribe to this strategy and seem to have applied it when they swiped Carlos Lee from the speed-coveting White Sox for the far less valuable Scott Podsednik.

---

Search Roto Authority

Custom Search

Roto Authority Mailing List

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Roto Authority Features

Recent Posts

Monthly Archives