BABIP, Anyone?


BABIP, Anyone?

We'll keep the minimum IP at 30, but remove the relievers.  Those helped by low BABIPs:

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Sean West 0.156 1.15 0.128 3.00 1.03
Chris Carpenter 0.196 5.29 0.118 1.59 0.73
J.A. Happ 0.221 1.54 0.177 3.53 1.22
Dan Haren 0.221 6.92 0.134 2.20 0.81
Edinson Volquez 0.224 1.47 0.163 4.35 1.33
Yovani Gallardo 0.230 2.41 0.154 2.88 1.10
Josh Outman 0.235 2.21 0.135 3.43 1.14
Scott Feldman 0.235 1.55 0.141 3.70 1.17
Jered Weaver 0.242 2.96 0.129 2.08 1.00
Johnny Cueto 0.245 2.48 0.143 2.17 1.07
Brian Tallet 0.246 1.66 0.178 4.87 1.29
John Maine 0.246 1.24 0.140 4.52 1.38
Edwin Jackson 0.247 2.83 0.118 2.24 1.03
Matt Garza 0.248 2.15 0.139 3.63 1.19
Ted Lilly 0.250 3.45 0.164 2.94 1.06
Kevin Millwood 0.251 1.81 0.153 2.72 1.21
Shairon Martis 0.253 0.97 0.184 5.04 1.35
Matt Palmer 0.255 1.50 0.122 4.11 1.27
Garrett Olson 0.255 1.42 0.213 4.26 1.39
Randy Wolf 0.256 2.75 0.161 3.41 1.13
C.C. Sabathia 0.258 2.31 0.103 3.68 1.13

Be skeptical of those with K/BBs under 2.0.

Now those with abnormally high BABIPs:

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Daisuke Matsuzaka 0.449 2.29 0.255 7.55 2.10
Ricky Nolasco 0.395 2.94 0.226 7.62 1.73
Ervin Santana 0.387 1.62 0.198 7.47 1.85
John Lackey 0.385 3.50 0.161 6.10 1.57
Felipe Paulino 0.375 2.18 0.183 6.18 1.72
Scott Olsen 0.366 1.61 0.268 7.24 1.90
Manny Parra 0.365 1.34 0.191 7.52 1.92
Brian Moehler 0.363 2.21 0.231 6.66 1.68
Sidney Ponson 0.362 1.41 0.141 7.27 1.73
Scott Kazmir 0.358 1.21 0.179 7.69 1.95
Justin Masterson 0.356 2.56 0.112 3.88 1.39
Shane Loux 0.355 1.00 0.121 5.40 1.72
Cole Hamels 0.354 4.67 0.202 4.62 1.38
Chan Ho Park 0.352 1.61 0.160 6.08 1.67
Jordan Zimmermann 0.351 3.75 0.187 5.37 1.35

  • Dice-K still has a control problem, but that is an absurd amount of hits (51 in 31 IP).
  • Nolasco, Santana, Lackey, Hamels...they will all get better.
  • I think Zimmermann should be owned in all leagues.  He has 13 Ks against 2 BBs and 3 ER in his last two starts spanning 13 IP.


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BABIP, Anyone?

We're due for another edition.  Minimum 40 IP.

Those being helped by low BABIPs:

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Matt Palmer 0.221 1.59 0.123 4.06 1.15
Edinson Volquez 0.224 1.47 0.163 4.35 1.33
Brian Tallet 0.225 1.62 0.189 4.26 1.24
Josh Outman 0.227 1.90 0.144 3.06 1.19
Johnny Cueto 0.235 2.50 0.150 2.53 1.03
Scott Feldman 0.238 1.53 0.129 3.91 1.18
Matt Garza 0.238 2.36 0.142 3.67 1.13
Dan Haren 0.244 7.80 0.134 2.42 0.86
Jered Weaver 0.245 2.94 0.137 2.36 1.03
Chris Volstad 0.246 2.57 0.198 3.71 1.13
Ted Lilly 0.247 3.06 0.193 3.50 1.09
Yovani Gallardo 0.247 2.71 0.161 3.18 1.12
John Maine 0.248 1.28 0.105 3.75 1.34
Kevin Millwood 0.254 1.87 0.169 3.23 1.23
Edwin Jackson 0.256 3.17 0.117 2.30 1.04
Randy Wolf 0.257 2.64 0.160 3.21 1.14
Dave Bush 0.259 2.50 0.241 4.38 1.19

Be wary of those with weak K/BB ratios, like Palmer, Feldman, and Maine.

On to those who have been hurt by high BABIPs:

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Ricky Nolasco 0.395 2.85 0.255 9.07 1.81
Jon Lester 0.375 3.08 0.176 5.65 1.55
Jason Hammel 0.375 2.25 0.170 4.83 1.73
Jordan Zimmermann 0.370 3.36 0.199 6.07 1.48
Scott Olsen 0.366 1.61 0.268 7.24 1.90
Felipe Paulino 0.364 1.94 0.186 6.21 1.71
Sidney Ponson 0.362 1.41 0.141 7.27 1.73
Cole Hamels 0.361 5.00 0.249 5.21 1.41
Tim Lincecum 0.359 4.33 0.084 3.01 1.23
Scott Kazmir 0.358 1.21 0.179 7.69 1.95
Manny Parra 0.356 1.42 0.168 6.75 1.83
Cliff Lee 0.353 3.38 0.091 3.16 1.41
Justin Masterson 0.353 2.29 0.112 4.25 1.42
Andy Sonnanstine 0.352 2.00 0.207 7.07 1.68

We've talked about many of these guys.  It might be time to stash Nolasco, if he was dropped when he was sent to the minors.  Hammel might be a decent spot start away from Coors, at times.  Buy low on Lee, if possible.


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BABIP, Anyone?

Time for this week's installment.  Minimum 30 IP. 

Those being helped by low BABIPs:

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Matt Palmer 0.202 1.38 0.138 4.26 1.14
Edinson Volquez 0.213 1.45 0.156 4.25 1.29
Brian Tallet 0.217 1.57 0.204 4.47 1.24
Matt Garza 0.221 1.96 0.137 3.50 1.09
Jered Weaver 0.225 3.23 0.155 2.59 0.97
Ted Lilly 0.233 3.58 0.204 3.35 1.04
Randy Wolf 0.234 2.42 0.156 2.72 1.07
Tim Wakefield 0.236 1.30 0.101 3.59 1.25
Lance Cormier 0.238 1.71 0.088 2.10 1.07
Chris Volstad 0.240 2.65 0.185 3.64 1.12
Scott Feldman 0.241 1.58 0.112 4.04 1.18
Johnny Cueto 0.243 3.08 0.130 2.35 1.01
Jair Jurrjens 0.245 1.60 0.108 1.96 1.13
Dan Haren 0.246 6.22 0.084 2.09 0.86

Those on the other side of the coin:

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Tim Lincecum 0.389 4.13 0.088 3.75 1.31
Jon Lester 0.388 3.38 0.212 6.51 1.62
Ricky Nolasco 0.382 2.92 0.232 7.78 1.68
Jason Hammel 0.373 2.22 0.164 4.60 1.72
Andy Sonnanstine 0.371 1.71 0.209 7.36 1.79
Carl Pavano 0.370 3.20 0.171 6.33 1.55
Gavin Floyd 0.367 1.52 0.160 7.71 1.87
Scott Olsen 0.366 1.61 0.268 7.24 1.90
Jordan Zimmermann 0.365 2.91 0.203 6.35 1.50
Justin Masterson 0.365 2.50 0.105 4.57 1.43
Kevin Slowey 0.365 8.75 0.201 4.50 1.44
Todd Wellemeyer 0.359 1.29 0.158 5.87 1.74
Scott Kazmir 0.358 1.21 0.179 7.69 1.95
Josh Beckett 0.357 2.00 0.149 5.85 1.66
Shane Loux 0.355 1.00 0.121 5.40 1.72
Cole Hamels 0.354 4.22 0.261 4.95 1.40

  • Long-term, Slowey is going to help your WHIP.  And I have to keep beating the drum for Lester and Nolasco, who probably deserve ERAs around 4.00 right now.


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BABIP, Anyone?

Yes, it's that time again...let's see what BABIP can tell us this week.  Minimum 25 IP.  The following will see their WHIPs rise, all else being equal:

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Matt Palmer 0.182 1.60 0.084 3.38 0.98
Brian Tallet 0.213 1.48 0.225 4.68 1.28
Matt Garza 0.215 2.21 0.149 3.56 1.04
Jered Weaver 0.215 3.50 0.151 2.45 0.94
Edinson Volquez 0.217 1.54 0.149 4.40 1.30
Chris Volstad 0.226 2.06 0.162 2.98 1.13
Kevin Millwood 0.231 2.45 0.160 2.92 1.05
Randy Wolf 0.234 2.59 0.164 2.77 1.07
Yovani Gallardo 0.237 2.94 0.153 3.09 1.05
Johnny Cueto 0.238 2.77 0.120 1.93 1.01
John Maine 0.241 1.21 0.104 4.24 1.34
Ted Lilly 0.241 4.22 0.215 3.27 1.05
Brian Bannister 0.242 1.42 0.064 1.80 1.17
Dave Bush 0.244 3.60 0.205 3.83 1.04
Scott Feldman 0.245 1.60 0.133 4.85 1.21
Mark Buehrle 0.246 2.50 0.133 3.00 1.09
Dan Haren 0.246 6.22 0.084 2.09 0.86
Jair Jurrjens 0.248 1.41 0.116 2.06 1.17

You might consider shopping those above with a K/BB ratio under 2.0.  Now for those who should see their WHIPs go down:

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Jon Lester 0.396 3.77 0.196 6.31 1.57
Andy Sonnanstine 0.387 1.62 0.176 7.27 1.85
Josh Beckett 0.387 2.05 0.148 6.42 1.77
Ricky Nolasco 0.382 2.92 0.232 7.78 1.68
Todd Wellemeyer 0.377 1.71 0.169 5.80 1.74
Cole Hamels 0.373 4.43 0.233 5.04 1.45
Scott Olsen 0.371 1.63 0.252 7.00 1.86
Brad Bergesen 0.371 1.75 0.174 5.27 1.76
Kevin Slowey 0.370 6.75 0.209 4.91 1.54
Gavin Floyd 0.368 1.48 0.137 7.32 1.88
Carl Pavano 0.365 3.25 0.160 6.45 1.54
Joba Chamberlain 0.363 2.00 0.147 3.89 1.56
Tim Lincecum 0.361 4.46 0.096 3.25 1.20
Jason Hammel 0.356 2.00 0.196 4.62 1.70
Shane Loux 0.353 1.30 0.113 4.64 1.61
Justin Masterson 0.351 2.07 0.078 4.89 1.43

  • Still digging Lester.  Go after him.  Offer a crappy closer or something.  His fastball is actually up a tick from last year.
  • I don't know why Beckett's control has been lousy this year.  But he's interesting and still getting Ks.
  • I fully support going after Nolasco.  If I owned him, I'd be getting frustrated.
  • You know Slowey will eventually help your WHIP.  Never walks anyone.


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BABIP, Anyone?

Minimum 20 innings pitched.  Holding all else equal, these pitchers will see their WHIPs rise:

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Matt Garza 0.190 2.12 0.156 3.51 1.00
Edinson Volquez 0.202 1.40 0.125 3.47 1.29
Chris Volstad 0.215 2.13 0.138 2.97 1.10
Tim Wakefield 0.218 1.39 0.076 2.93 1.13
Jeff Karstens 0.220 0.69 0.301 5.85 1.55
Kevin Millwood 0.221 3.13 0.161 2.78 0.99
Jonathan Sanchez 0.222 1.28 0.200 3.80 1.55
Ted Lilly 0.222 3.44 0.204 3.11 1.01
Yovani Gallardo 0.224 3.25 0.140 3.02 0.96
Jered Weaver 0.225 3.44 0.155 2.66 0.98
Brian Bannister 0.233 1.27 0.057 1.48 1.19
Jair Jurrjens 0.238 1.25 0.117 2.01 1.19
Brian Tallet 0.239 1.57 0.276 5.83 1.40
James Shields 0.242 1.77 0.170 3.51 1.20
Jason Marquis 0.243 1.58 0.144 3.92 1.21
Mark Buehrle 0.243 2.18 0.109 2.61 1.08
Dan Haren 0.246 5.67 0.080 1.84 0.86
John Maine 0.247 1.22 0.103 5.20 1.37
Scott Richmond 0.247 2.17 0.157 2.67 1.22

On the other hand, expect the WHIPs of these players to come down:

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Dana Eveland 0.429 0.94 0.093 7.40 2.34
Felipe Paulino 0.424 1.70 0.107 5.23 1.89
Josh Beckett 0.396 2.12 0.158 6.75 1.82
Brian Bass 0.383 2.86 0.259 6.20 1.72
Ricky Nolasco 0.379 3.00 0.209 7.03 1.63
Oliver Perez 0.379 0.95 0.191 9.97 2.26
Kevin Slowey 0.376 12.50 0.216 5.50 1.51
Joe Blanton 0.373 2.56 0.223 6.84 1.75
Todd Wellemeyer 0.369 1.82 0.139 4.75 1.61
Kevin Correia 0.368 1.31 0.088 5.92 1.77
Brad Bergesen 0.368 1.57 0.156 4.98 1.75
Jon Lester 0.368 3.58 0.193 5.11 1.46
Matt Harrison 0.365 1.00 0.179 6.41 1.91
Andy Sonnanstine 0.363 1.67 0.134 5.79 1.65
Adam Eaton 0.360 2.30 0.188 7.18 1.67
Justin Verlander 0.359 3.75 0.157 5.66 1.37
Cliff Lee 0.359 2.80 0.117 3.92 1.54
Justin Masterson 0.358 2.60 0.092 5.28 1.41
Tim Lincecum 0.355 4.17 0.097 3.05 1.20
Carl Pavano 0.353 2.88 0.186 6.61 1.53
Scott Olsen 0.352 1.85 0.248 6.54 1.71
Eric Stults 0.351 1.07 0.140 4.94 1.77
Kenshin Kawakami 0.351 1.79 0.262 6.41 1.73
Ubaldo Jimenez 0.351 1.50 0.105 5.45 1.61

Players to target: Nolasco, Slowey, Lester, and Verlander.  Lee and Masterson should be considered as well.


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BABIP, Anyone?

Minimum 15 innings pitched.  Those benefitting from low BABIPs so far this year:

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Jonathan Sanchez 0.182 1.42 0.175 2.60 1.27
Tim Wakefield 0.184 1.42 0.048 1.86 0.97
Jeff Karstens 0.190 0.89 0.333 5.40 1.40
Brian Tallet 0.204 1.88 0.182 2.95 1.09
Chris Volstad 0.207 1.83 0.145 2.70 1.16
Dan Haren 0.214 7.20 0.089 1.54 0.74
Kevin Millwood 0.216 2.75 0.123 2.13 0.97
Edwin Jackson 0.221 2.63 0.150 2.25 1.03
Ted Lilly 0.227 2.67 0.241 3.80 1.10
John Danks 0.230 2.25 0.122 2.74 1.09
Yovani Gallardo 0.232 2.88 0.116 3.71 1.01
James Shields 0.233 1.55 0.198 3.74 1.22
Jarrod Washburn 0.238 2.43 0.160 3.42 1.10
Rick Porcello 0.241 3.67 0.214 4.50 1.17
Scott Kazmir 0.242 1.42 0.159 3.97 1.32
Koji Uehara 0.243 2.33 0.187 4.56 1.14
John Maine 0.246 1.25 0.128 5.40 1.34

These WHIPs will not be maintained.  Use extra caution on those with low K/BB ratios.

Here's a look at those with high BABIPs/bad luck:

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Todd Wellemeyer 0.451 2.17 0.105 6.14 1.95
Joe Blanton 0.429 2.86 0.270 8.41 1.97
Carl Pavano 0.417 3.20 0.250 9.50 1.89
Dana Eveland 0.408 1.00 0.048 5.95 2.08
Cole Hamels 0.407 3.75 0.311 7.27 1.79
Tim Lincecum 0.404 5.00 0.129 2.96 1.27
Ubaldo Jimenez 0.404 1.12 0.105 7.58 2.11
Ricky Nolasco 0.398 2.44 0.187 6.92 1.69
Andy Sonnanstine 0.397 1.88 0.155 7.78 1.83
Adam Eaton 0.397 2.63 0.176 7.17 1.73
Jon Lester 0.394 3.71 0.147 4.88 1.50
Shane Loux 0.391 0.83 0.071 6.61 1.96
Justin Verlander 0.388 3.78 0.179 6.75 1.54
Aaron Cook 0.387 1.00 0.247 8.35 2.13
Matt Harrison 0.367 0.75 0.196 7.89 2.08
Vicente Padilla 0.366 1.88 0.189 8.27 1.84
Yusmeiro Petit 0.365 1.63 0.246 8.62 1.98
Javier Vazquez 0.362 4.86 0.097 2.63 1.21

These guys might be considered buy-low candidates, if they have high ERAs and strong peripherals.  Individual thoughts:

  • Wellemeyer leads baseball in hits allowed, but he's improved his control.
  • Nolasco leads baseball in earned runs.  His K rate is still fine, but he's lost his amazing control from last year.  I don't know if he's hiding an injury, but otherwise he looks like a nice buy low.  His owner might not be able to get past that 6.92 ERA.
  • Lester: walks down, Ks way up.  This is good.  He has a fluky-high 18.8% HR per flyball rate coupled with the .394 BABIP.  I would try to get him on the cheap.
  • Verlander: same story.  Go get him.


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BABIP, Anyone?

Time for another installment.  The lowest BABIPs, minimum 10 innings pitched:

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Andrew Bailey 0.053 6.50 0.091 0.87 0.39
Anthony Reyes 0.118 0.50 0.366 5.73 1.27
John Danks 0.148 1.86 0.073 0.75 1.00
Jonathan Sanchez 0.154 1.22 0.231 3.97 1.32
Edwin Jackson 0.158 2.60 0.178 2.14 0.81
Chris Carpenter 0.179 4.50 0.027 0.00 0.70
Ted Lilly 0.179 5.50 0.326 3.86 0.94
Joe Saunders 0.180 1.17 0.114 2.18 0.92
Brian Tallet 0.182 2.00 0.244 4.26 1.03
Jeff Karstens 0.194 0.57 0.167 3.60 1.40
Kyle Lohse 0.197 4.00 0.108 2.57 0.76
Kevin Millwood 0.203 3.50 0.051 1.17 0.78
A.J. Burnett 0.213 1.89 0.149 3.20 1.12
Tim Wakefield 0.213 1.14 0.036 3.00 1.13
Paul Maholm 0.215 1.00 0.042 0.87 0.97
Brett Myers 0.216 3.00 0.355 5.03 1.22
Bartolo Colon 0.216 2.00 0.136 3.86 1.03
Glen Perkins 0.219 3.00 0.035 1.50 0.83
Brandon McCarthy 0.222 1.56 0.297 4.76 1.41
Trevor Cahill 0.222 0.38 0.102 2.60 1.44
Jarrod Washburn 0.224 4.25 0.105 1.71 0.86
Dan Haren 0.229 5.67 0.076 1.89 0.79

I typically red-flag anyone with a low BABIP, nice ERA, and a K/BB under 2.0.  So Danks, Sanchez, Saunders, Karstens, Burnett, Wakefield, Maholm, McCarthy, and Cahill fit this description so far.  We're talking about two starts in some cases though so there's really not enough to draw conclusions. 

Those experiencing bad luck so far:

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Joe Blanton 0.455 3.67 0.217 9.00 2.00
Todd Wellemeyer 0.453 2.00 0.111 5.29 1.94
Dana Eveland 0.439 1.00 0.061 7.36 2.32
Tim Lincecum 0.439 3.83 0.138 3.86 1.53
Cliff Lee 0.400 1.75 0.169 6.75 2.00
Vicente Padilla 0.400 2.20 0.203 9.64 2.00
Ricky Nolasco 0.396 4.00 0.210 6.60 1.60
Carl Pavano 0.395 3.25 0.296 9.69 1.69
Matt Harrison 0.395 0.56 0.200 8.44 2.44
Aaron Cook 0.395 1.50 0.333 10.22 2.11
Jon Lester 0.388 4.75 0.169 5.50 1.44
Zach Miner 0.382 1.20 0.302 8.10 2.10
Joel Pineiro 0.381 1.25 0.229 5.40 1.80
Ubaldo Jimenez 0.375 1.23 0.107 6.00 1.87
Kevin Slowey 0.371 6.00 0.253 5.89 1.64
Sidney Ponson 0.365 1.00 0.111 7.04 1.96
Justin Verlander 0.364 2.86 0.227 7.88 1.56
Carlos Zambrano 0.354 2.22 0.208 5.21 1.58
Brian Bass 0.353 2.00 0.468 10.45 2.03
Felix Hernandez 0.353 3.33 0.083 4.26 1.32

I'm not worried about Lincecum, Nolasco, Lester, Verlander, or Felix.  I doubt their owners are looking to sell at this point anyway.  How to use the ISO against stat: if it's around .150 or less, it means the guy is not giving up an abnormal amount of extra base hits.  So looking at Felix, those extra hits dropping in are singles.


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BABIP, Anyone?

Is it too early for the first BABIP, Anyone entry of 2009?  Definitely.  We're using the ridiculously low minimum of five innings pitched.  But just for the hell of it, here are your early leaders.

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
John Maine 0.000 5.00 0.353 3.60 0.60
Chris Carpenter 0.059 3.50 0.000 0.00 0.43
Edwin Jackson 0.108 1.75 0.255 3.38 0.83
Anthony Reyes 0.111 0.67 0.286 6.00 1.00
Chad Billingsley 0.143 1.00 0.000 3.00 1.00
Alfredo Simon 0.143 1.50 0.316 7.20 1.20
Kyle Lohse 0.152 8.00 0.073 1.13 0.56
Bartolo Colon 0.158 1.00 0.000 0.00 0.83
Andy Pettitte 0.167 6.00 0.083 1.29 0.57
Brad Penny 0.167 1.00 0.318 4.50 1.17
Joba Chamberlain 0.176 5.00 0.261 1.50 0.83
Brett Myers 0.182 6.00 0.412 5.54 1.08
Vicente Padilla 0.188 1.67 0.136 4.76 1.24
Dan Haren 0.188 3.67 0.091 2.08 0.77
John Danks 0.188 1.67 0.000 0.00 1.00
Mark Buehrle 0.188 2.67 0.190 2.38 0.97
Matt Garza 0.190 1.67 0.115 1.29 1.00
Jon Garland 0.190 0.67 0.167 3.86 1.14
Trevor Cahill 0.194 0.50 0.100 2.25 1.25
Joe Saunders 0.195 0.80 0.170 2.63 1.10

On the flip side, how about these unlucky fellows?

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Todd Wellemeyer 0.571 1.50 0.083 9.00 2.80
Tim Lincecum 0.500 1.67 0.243 7.56 2.40
Jon Lester 0.467 2.50 0.238 9.00 2.00
Johnny Cueto 0.467 9.00 0.320 6.00 1.50
Cliff Lee 0.457 2.00 0.174 9.90 2.20
Matt Harrison 0.429 0.40 0.130 6.35 2.47
Kris Benson 0.421 1.50 0.292 12.60 2.40
Brian Bass 0.421 2.50 0.655 16.88 2.81
Rick Porcello 0.412 4.00 0.261 7.20 2.00
A.J. Burnett 0.400 6.00 0.182 3.38 1.50
Bronson Arroyo 0.400 2.00 0.083 7.50 1.67
Scott Olsen 0.400 0.83 0.378 14.63 2.50
Dana Eveland 0.400 2.00 0.042 4.50 1.67
Aaron Cook 0.400 2.00 0.250 9.72 1.92

Yes, looking at BABIP for guys with one start is pretty much useless.  I was itching to do it anyway to see who the first-week leaders are. 

What we all really want to know is this.  Was this a two-start blip for Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum, or will last year's Cy Young winners post ERAs around 4.00 in 2009?  For Lee, his combined game score for his two starts is 61.  He did something similar last year - his May 30th and June 4th starts had a combined game score of 69.  Lincecum's combined game score is 75 this year.  He had a combined 90 for June 16th and 22nd in '08, but nothing worse than that.  Going back to his rookie season we find a combined 51 after stinkers vs. the Blue Jays and Brewers in June of '07.


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BABIP, Anyone?: Year End

Let's do a year-end version of the immensely popular series, BABIP, Anyone?!  The following players had abnormally low BABIPs, meaning their WHIPs will likely rise in 2009 if their skills remain the same.  Minimum: 100 innings.

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Justin Duchscherer 0.238 2.88 0.112 2.54 0.99
Armando Galarraga 0.239 2.07 0.184 3.73 1.19
Dave Bush 0.239 2.27 0.191 4.18 1.14
Tim Wakefield 0.242 1.95 0.159 4.13 1.18
Shaun Marcum 0.248 2.46 0.166 3.39 1.16
Chris Young 0.259 1.94 0.163 3.96 1.29
Gavin Floyd 0.261 2.07 0.188 3.84 1.26
Jeremy Guthrie 0.261 2.07 0.149 3.63 1.23
Scott Olsen 0.262 1.64 0.184 4.20 1.31
Daisuke Matsuzaka 0.262 1.64 0.113 2.90 1.32
Greg Smith 0.263 1.28 0.160 4.16 1.35
Cole Hamels 0.263 3.70 0.157 3.09 1.08
Tim Hudson 0.268 2.13 0.126 3.17 1.16
Joe Saunders 0.269 1.94 0.131 3.41 1.21

Some pretty ERAs and WHIPs in this group, but the players with K/BBs under 2.5 here are on shaky footing for next year.  They shouldn't necessarily be avoided, but be mindful of their BABIP-based success.

The next group is where we might find some bargains.

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Ian Snell 0.360 1.52 0.171 5.42 1.76
Kevin Millwood 0.359 2.60 0.150 5.07 1.59
Andrew Miller 0.354 1.59 0.135 5.87 1.64
Livan Hernandez 0.354 1.86 0.164 5.48 1.63
Carlos Silva 0.348 2.16 0.174 6.46 1.60
Nate Robertson 0.343 1.74 0.203 6.35 1.66
Andy Pettitte 0.341 2.87 0.132 4.54 1.41
Garrett Olson 0.341 1.34 0.166 6.65 1.73
Kevin Correia 0.337 1.43 0.171 6.05 1.70
Manny Parra 0.335 1.96 0.135 4.39 1.54
Doug Davis 0.332 1.75 0.137 4.32 1.53
Jo-Jo Reyes 0.332 1.50 0.200 5.81 1.65
Pedro Martinez 0.331 1.98 0.194 5.61 1.57
Jorge De La Rosa 0.330 2.06 0.149 4.92 1.46
Adam Eaton 0.330 1.30 0.177 5.80 1.64

An ISO in the .150 range means the pitcher gave up an abnormal amount of singles, rather than extra-base hits.  So I like Millwood, Pettitte, and maybe de la Rosa and Parra as sleepers.  Those last two still need to improve their control.  If Snell rediscovers his control and gets some defense behind him, he could bounce back to his very solid '07 level.  He probably won't be drafted in mixed leagues.

They didn't make the chart, but Joba Chamberlain, Boof Bonser, Mike Mussina, Clayton Kershaw, Bronson Arroyo, Dustin McGowan, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, Javier Vazquez, and A.J. Burnett all had BABIPs in the .320s.  Those could come down significantly and give a nice boost.  Get Bonser to the NL with a good pitching coach and he could be a fine undrafted sleeper for '09.


Full Story |  Comments (1) | Categories: BABIP, Anyone?

BABIP, Anyone?

It's pretty tough to maintain a BABIP below .280 year in, year out.  21 pitchers managed the feat in '07, but only five of them repeated in '08 (Shaun Marcum, Carlos Zambrano, Johan Santana, Jeremy Guthrie, and Oliver Perez).  Here's your BABIP kings for 2008:

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Justin Duchscherer 0.238 2.88 0.112 2.54 0.99
Tim Wakefield 0.240 1.85 0.157 3.76 1.19
Dave Bush 0.246 2.69 0.191 4.12 1.12
Shaun Marcum 0.247 2.53 0.178 3.60 1.17
Gavin Floyd 0.248 1.86 0.174 3.61 1.24
Armando Galarraga 0.248 2.12 0.162 3.17 1.19
Cole Hamels 0.252 3.91 0.155 3.13 1.03
Rich Harden 0.254 3.41 0.111 1.99 1.05
Jeremy Guthrie 0.260 2.09 0.144 3.57 1.22
Daisuke Matsuzaka 0.261 1.55 0.113 2.82 1.33
Scott Olsen 0.266 1.61 0.197 4.35 1.33
Adam Wainwright 0.266 3.24 0.155 3.04 1.10
Oliver Perez 0.268 1.74 0.158 3.90 1.35
Tim Hudson 0.268 2.13 0.126 3.17 1.16
Joe Saunders 0.269 1.68 0.139 3.67 1.25
Greg Smith 0.270 1.32 0.158 4.23 1.37
John Lackey 0.271 3.41 0.159 3.10 1.13
Ryan Dempster 0.272 2.32 0.107 2.95 1.19
Todd Wellemeyer 0.272 2.18 0.159 3.76 1.25
John Lannan 0.274 1.57 0.134 3.92 1.34
Erik Bedard 0.275 1.95 0.145 3.67 1.32
Johan Santana 0.276 3.31 0.142 2.71 1.15
John Maine 0.276 1.82 0.138 4.18 1.35
Hiroki Kuroda 0.276 2.65 0.106 3.87 1.19
Matt Garza 0.277 2.20 0.120 3.53 1.23
Collin Balester 0.278 1.68 0.172 4.75 1.37
Carlos Zambrano 0.278 1.87 0.127 3.53 1.30
Scott Kazmir 0.279 2.55 0.171 3.13 1.23
Ricky Nolasco 0.279 4.08 0.174 3.65 1.13
Kevin Slowey 0.279 5.89 0.178 3.70 1.08

Risky pitchers for 2009: Floyd, Galarraga, Olsen, Saunders, Smith, and Lannan.  These six are candidates to have significantly worse seasons.

On the flip side, the following pitchers all allowed more than a hit per inning due to high BABIPs:

NAME BABIP K/BB ISO ERA WHIP
Ian Snell 0.369 1.41 0.175 5.77 1.84
Clay Buchholz 0.360 1.76 0.164 6.75 1.76
Andrew Miller 0.359 1.66 0.131 5.58 1.64
Kevin Millwood 0.356 2.46 0.150 4.84 1.59
Livan Hernandez 0.354 1.86 0.164 5.48 1.63
Nate Robertson 0.349 1.76 0.214 6.36 1.69
Carlos Silva 0.345 2.03 0.183 6.53 1.60
Jo-Jo Reyes 0.343 1.55 0.165 5.49 1.63
Josh Johnson 0.341 2.80 0.096 3.25 1.34
Sidney Ponson 0.341 0.93 0.185 6.22 1.74
Clayton Kershaw 0.341 1.73 0.144 4.56 1.61
Jorge De La Rosa 0.339 2.14 0.152 5.23 1.49

Keep an eye on Millwood and Johnson.  Their reasonable ISOs show they truly just had more singles drop in than normal. Kershaw, Miller, Buchholz, Reyes, and de la Rosa will be intriguing if they can improve their control.


Full Story |  Comments (3) | Categories: BABIP, Anyone?


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