BABIP, Anyone?

BABIP, Anyone?

Been a while since we checked in our BABIP leaders and trailers.  Minimum 75 IP.

Those benefitting from low BABIPs should see their WHIPs rise:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Scott Feldman	0.236	1.56	0.136	3.59	1.14
Dan Haren	0.240	7.42	0.121	2.14	0.84
Scott Richmond	0.246	2.37	0.211	3.69	1.20
Jarrod Washburn	0.247	2.60	0.116	2.71	1.06
Edwin Jackson	0.249	2.36	0.143	2.59	1.11
Chris Carpenter	0.255	4.75	0.098	2.26	0.91
Shairon Martis	0.256	0.87	0.178	5.25	1.42
Randy Wolf	0.257	2.71	0.169	3.45	1.13
Yovani Gallardo	0.259	2.16	0.149	3.09	1.25
Chris Young	0.260	1.25	0.189	5.21	1.45
Jeff Karstens	0.260	1.03	0.189	4.40	1.36
J.A. Happ	0.261	2.15	0.140	2.97	1.18
Mark Buehrle	0.262	2.92	0.164	3.28	1.10
Trevor Cahill	0.262	1.09	0.223	4.50	1.45
Matt Garza	0.263	2.32	0.134	3.68	1.20
Kevin Millwood	0.268	1.87	0.156	3.39	1.28
Jair Jurrjens	0.268	1.87	0.121	2.67	1.20
Clayton Kershaw	0.269	1.75	0.090	2.96	1.26
Jered Weaver	0.269	2.73	0.157	3.57	1.18

It's time to sell high on Feldman, who has a 4.80 xFIP.  Happ is another player to shop, especially given the possibility he lands in the AL East as part of a Roy Halladay trade.

Here are the buying opportunities, guys who should see their WHIPs come down:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Todd Wellemeyer	0.360	1.45	0.177	5.79	1.75
Kevin Slowey	0.355	5.00	0.194	4.86	1.41
Manny Parra	0.354	1.48	0.172	6.42	1.80
Ricky Nolasco	0.344	4.04	0.192	5.42	1.36
Aaron Harang	0.344	3.67	0.180	4.25	1.43
Jordan Zimmermann	0.343	3.17	0.157	4.63	1.36
Jason Hammel	0.342	2.80	0.156	4.28	1.45
Carl Pavano	0.339	3.68	0.177	5.48	1.40
Livan Hernandez	0.335	1.54	0.162	4.87	1.53
Jon Lester	0.335	3.56	0.130	3.79	1.29
Cole Hamels	0.335	4.57	0.195	4.66	1.33

Sorry to say, there's not much here.  Favorites of mine like Zimmermann and Slowey are on the shelf.  Parra, Hammel, and Pavano are mildly interesting.  Check the price on Harang.

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BABIP, Anyone?

Time to take a look at our BABIP leaders and trailers, with a minimum of 40 IP.  Here are those benefitting from low BABIPs:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Edinson Volquez	0.224	1.47	0.163	4.35	1.33
Luke Hochevar	0.224	1.06	0.171	4.96	1.21
Chris Carpenter	0.230	5.30	0.115	2.42	0.82
Dan Haren	0.232	7.53	0.123	2.19	0.81
Garrett Olson	0.236	1.86	0.222	4.81	1.23
Scott Feldman	0.240	1.65	0.151	4.09	1.18
Matt Garza	0.242	2.10	0.148	3.45	1.18
Yovani Gallardo	0.244	2.48	0.149	2.75	1.15
Sean West	0.245	1.24	0.158	4.06	1.38
Scott Richmond	0.246	2.37	0.211	3.69	1.20
John Maine	0.246	1.24	0.140	4.52	1.38
J.A. Happ	0.247	1.61	0.149	3.00	1.23
Johnny Cueto	0.251	2.44	0.154	2.69	1.12
CC Sabathia	0.252	2.52	0.110	3.55	1.09
Edwin Jackson	0.255	2.90	0.122	2.49	1.04
Shairon Martis	0.256	0.87	0.178	5.25	1.42
Chris Jakubauskas	0.258	1.53	0.196	5.46	1.28
Brian Tallet	0.258	1.58	0.157	4.47	1.33
Jered Weaver	0.258	2.61	0.149	3.10	1.13
Joe Saunders	0.259	1.74	0.185	4.24	1.30

Those with low K/BB ratios are possible sell candidates. 

Now those with high BABIPs, which figure to come down:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Billy Buckner	0.376	2.20	0.262	8.63	1.77
Cole Hamels	0.376	4.28	0.178	4.98	1.47
John Lackey	0.375	2.80	0.144	5.06	1.52
Manny Parra	0.365	1.34	0.191	7.52	1.92
Scott Olsen	0.363	2.00	0.250	6.56	1.75
Sidney Ponson	0.362	1.41	0.141	7.27	1.73
Ricky Nolasco	0.355	3.89	0.201	5.99	1.45
Justin Masterson	0.353	2.57	0.128	4.28	1.39
Felipe Paulino	0.353	2.71	0.176	5.51	1.54
Todd Wellemeyer	0.352	1.38	0.163	5.68	1.70
Kevin Slowey	0.351	4.73	0.184	4.41	1.40
Chan Ho Park	0.348	1.83	0.150	6.04	1.60
Scott Kazmir	0.348	1.33	0.182	7.28	1.86
Derek Holland	0.348	2.44	0.217	6.20	1.60
Rich Hill	0.347	1.37	0.181	7.08	1.80
Jorge De La Rosa	0.346	2.29	0.171	5.64	1.49
Carl Pavano	0.346	3.78	0.167	5.56	1.41
Adam Eaton	0.343	1.47	0.259	8.56	1.83
Jon Lester	0.340	3.80	0.144	4.35	1.31

Hamels, Lackey, and Nolasco stand as buy-low candidates, if it's not too late.  Paulino and Slowey are intriguing as well.

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BABIP, Anyone?

We'll keep the minimum IP at 30, but remove the relievers.  Those helped by low BABIPs:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Sean West	0.156	1.15	0.128	3.00	1.03
Chris Carpenter	0.196	5.29	0.118	1.59	0.73
J.A. Happ	0.221	1.54	0.177	3.53	1.22
Dan Haren	0.221	6.92	0.134	2.20	0.81
Edinson Volquez	0.224	1.47	0.163	4.35	1.33
Yovani Gallardo	0.230	2.41	0.154	2.88	1.10
Josh Outman	0.235	2.21	0.135	3.43	1.14
Scott Feldman	0.235	1.55	0.141	3.70	1.17
Jered Weaver	0.242	2.96	0.129	2.08	1.00
Johnny Cueto	0.245	2.48	0.143	2.17	1.07
Brian Tallet	0.246	1.66	0.178	4.87	1.29
John Maine	0.246	1.24	0.140	4.52	1.38
Edwin Jackson	0.247	2.83	0.118	2.24	1.03
Matt Garza	0.248	2.15	0.139	3.63	1.19
Ted Lilly	0.250	3.45	0.164	2.94	1.06
Kevin Millwood	0.251	1.81	0.153	2.72	1.21
Shairon Martis	0.253	0.97	0.184	5.04	1.35
Matt Palmer	0.255	1.50	0.122	4.11	1.27
Garrett Olson	0.255	1.42	0.213	4.26	1.39
Randy Wolf	0.256	2.75	0.161	3.41	1.13
C.C. Sabathia	0.258	2.31	0.103	3.68	1.13

Be skeptical of those with K/BBs under 2.0.

Now those with abnormally high BABIPs:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Daisuke Matsuzaka	0.449	2.29	0.255	7.55	2.10
Ricky Nolasco	0.395	2.94	0.226	7.62	1.73
Ervin Santana	0.387	1.62	0.198	7.47	1.85
John Lackey	0.385	3.50	0.161	6.10	1.57
Felipe Paulino	0.375	2.18	0.183	6.18	1.72
Scott Olsen	0.366	1.61	0.268	7.24	1.90
Manny Parra	0.365	1.34	0.191	7.52	1.92
Brian Moehler	0.363	2.21	0.231	6.66	1.68
Sidney Ponson	0.362	1.41	0.141	7.27	1.73
Scott Kazmir	0.358	1.21	0.179	7.69	1.95
Justin Masterson	0.356	2.56	0.112	3.88	1.39
Shane Loux	0.355	1.00	0.121	5.40	1.72
Cole Hamels	0.354	4.67	0.202	4.62	1.38
Chan Ho Park	0.352	1.61	0.160	6.08	1.67
Jordan Zimmermann	0.351	3.75	0.187	5.37	1.35

• Dice-K still has a control problem, but that is an absurd amount of hits (51 in 31 IP).
• Nolasco, Santana, Lackey, Hamels...they will all get better.
• I think Zimmermann should be owned in all leagues.  He has 13 Ks against 2 BBs and 3 ER in his last two starts spanning 13 IP.

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BABIP, Anyone?

We're due for another edition.  Minimum 40 IP.

Those being helped by low BABIPs:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Matt Palmer	0.221	1.59	0.123	4.06	1.15
Edinson Volquez	0.224	1.47	0.163	4.35	1.33
Brian Tallet	0.225	1.62	0.189	4.26	1.24
Josh Outman	0.227	1.90	0.144	3.06	1.19
Johnny Cueto	0.235	2.50	0.150	2.53	1.03
Scott Feldman	0.238	1.53	0.129	3.91	1.18
Matt Garza	0.238	2.36	0.142	3.67	1.13
Dan Haren	0.244	7.80	0.134	2.42	0.86
Jered Weaver	0.245	2.94	0.137	2.36	1.03
Chris Volstad	0.246	2.57	0.198	3.71	1.13
Ted Lilly	0.247	3.06	0.193	3.50	1.09
Yovani Gallardo	0.247	2.71	0.161	3.18	1.12
John Maine	0.248	1.28	0.105	3.75	1.34
Kevin Millwood	0.254	1.87	0.169	3.23	1.23
Edwin Jackson	0.256	3.17	0.117	2.30	1.04
Randy Wolf	0.257	2.64	0.160	3.21	1.14
Dave Bush	0.259	2.50	0.241	4.38	1.19

Be wary of those with weak K/BB ratios, like Palmer, Feldman, and Maine.

On to those who have been hurt by high BABIPs:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Ricky Nolasco	0.395	2.85	0.255	9.07	1.81
Jon Lester	0.375	3.08	0.176	5.65	1.55
Jason Hammel	0.375	2.25	0.170	4.83	1.73
Jordan Zimmermann	0.370	3.36	0.199	6.07	1.48
Scott Olsen	0.366	1.61	0.268	7.24	1.90
Felipe Paulino	0.364	1.94	0.186	6.21	1.71
Sidney Ponson	0.362	1.41	0.141	7.27	1.73
Cole Hamels	0.361	5.00	0.249	5.21	1.41
Tim Lincecum	0.359	4.33	0.084	3.01	1.23
Scott Kazmir	0.358	1.21	0.179	7.69	1.95
Manny Parra	0.356	1.42	0.168	6.75	1.83
Cliff Lee	0.353	3.38	0.091	3.16	1.41
Justin Masterson	0.353	2.29	0.112	4.25	1.42
Andy Sonnanstine	0.352	2.00	0.207	7.07	1.68

We've talked about many of these guys.  It might be time to stash Nolasco, if he was dropped when he was sent to the minors.  Hammel might be a decent spot start away from Coors, at times.  Buy low on Lee, if possible.

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BABIP, Anyone?

Time for this week's installment.  Minimum 30 IP. 

Those being helped by low BABIPs:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Matt Palmer	0.202	1.38	0.138	4.26	1.14
Edinson Volquez	0.213	1.45	0.156	4.25	1.29
Brian Tallet	0.217	1.57	0.204	4.47	1.24
Matt Garza	0.221	1.96	0.137	3.50	1.09
Jered Weaver	0.225	3.23	0.155	2.59	0.97
Ted Lilly	0.233	3.58	0.204	3.35	1.04
Randy Wolf	0.234	2.42	0.156	2.72	1.07
Tim Wakefield	0.236	1.30	0.101	3.59	1.25
Lance Cormier	0.238	1.71	0.088	2.10	1.07
Chris Volstad	0.240	2.65	0.185	3.64	1.12
Scott Feldman	0.241	1.58	0.112	4.04	1.18
Johnny Cueto	0.243	3.08	0.130	2.35	1.01
Jair Jurrjens	0.245	1.60	0.108	1.96	1.13
Dan Haren	0.246	6.22	0.084	2.09	0.86

Those on the other side of the coin:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Tim Lincecum	0.389	4.13	0.088	3.75	1.31
Jon Lester	0.388	3.38	0.212	6.51	1.62
Ricky Nolasco	0.382	2.92	0.232	7.78	1.68
Jason Hammel	0.373	2.22	0.164	4.60	1.72
Andy Sonnanstine	0.371	1.71	0.209	7.36	1.79
Carl Pavano	0.370	3.20	0.171	6.33	1.55
Gavin Floyd	0.367	1.52	0.160	7.71	1.87
Scott Olsen	0.366	1.61	0.268	7.24	1.90
Jordan Zimmermann	0.365	2.91	0.203	6.35	1.50
Justin Masterson	0.365	2.50	0.105	4.57	1.43
Kevin Slowey	0.365	8.75	0.201	4.50	1.44
Todd Wellemeyer	0.359	1.29	0.158	5.87	1.74
Scott Kazmir	0.358	1.21	0.179	7.69	1.95
Josh Beckett	0.357	2.00	0.149	5.85	1.66
Shane Loux	0.355	1.00	0.121	5.40	1.72
Cole Hamels	0.354	4.22	0.261	4.95	1.40

• Long-term, Slowey is going to help your WHIP.  And I have to keep beating the drum for Lester and Nolasco, who probably deserve ERAs around 4.00 right now.

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BABIP, Anyone?

Yes, it's that time again...let's see what BABIP can tell us this week.  Minimum 25 IP.  The following will see their WHIPs rise, all else being equal:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Matt Palmer	0.182	1.60	0.084	3.38	0.98
Brian Tallet	0.213	1.48	0.225	4.68	1.28
Matt Garza	0.215	2.21	0.149	3.56	1.04
Jered Weaver	0.215	3.50	0.151	2.45	0.94
Edinson Volquez	0.217	1.54	0.149	4.40	1.30
Chris Volstad	0.226	2.06	0.162	2.98	1.13
Kevin Millwood	0.231	2.45	0.160	2.92	1.05
Randy Wolf	0.234	2.59	0.164	2.77	1.07
Yovani Gallardo	0.237	2.94	0.153	3.09	1.05
Johnny Cueto	0.238	2.77	0.120	1.93	1.01
John Maine	0.241	1.21	0.104	4.24	1.34
Ted Lilly	0.241	4.22	0.215	3.27	1.05
Brian Bannister	0.242	1.42	0.064	1.80	1.17
Dave Bush	0.244	3.60	0.205	3.83	1.04
Scott Feldman	0.245	1.60	0.133	4.85	1.21
Mark Buehrle	0.246	2.50	0.133	3.00	1.09
Dan Haren	0.246	6.22	0.084	2.09	0.86
Jair Jurrjens	0.248	1.41	0.116	2.06	1.17

You might consider shopping those above with a K/BB ratio under 2.0.  Now for those who should see their WHIPs go down:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Jon Lester	0.396	3.77	0.196	6.31	1.57
Andy Sonnanstine	0.387	1.62	0.176	7.27	1.85
Josh Beckett	0.387	2.05	0.148	6.42	1.77
Ricky Nolasco	0.382	2.92	0.232	7.78	1.68
Todd Wellemeyer	0.377	1.71	0.169	5.80	1.74
Cole Hamels	0.373	4.43	0.233	5.04	1.45
Scott Olsen	0.371	1.63	0.252	7.00	1.86
Brad Bergesen	0.371	1.75	0.174	5.27	1.76
Kevin Slowey	0.370	6.75	0.209	4.91	1.54
Gavin Floyd	0.368	1.48	0.137	7.32	1.88
Carl Pavano	0.365	3.25	0.160	6.45	1.54
Joba Chamberlain	0.363	2.00	0.147	3.89	1.56
Tim Lincecum	0.361	4.46	0.096	3.25	1.20
Jason Hammel	0.356	2.00	0.196	4.62	1.70
Shane Loux	0.353	1.30	0.113	4.64	1.61
Justin Masterson	0.351	2.07	0.078	4.89	1.43

• Still digging Lester.  Go after him.  Offer a crappy closer or something.  His fastball is actually up a tick from last year.
• I don't know why Beckett's control has been lousy this year.  But he's interesting and still getting Ks.
• I fully support going after Nolasco.  If I owned him, I'd be getting frustrated.
• You know Slowey will eventually help your WHIP.  Never walks anyone.

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BABIP, Anyone?

Minimum 20 innings pitched.  Holding all else equal, these pitchers will see their WHIPs rise:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Matt Garza	0.190	2.12	0.156	3.51	1.00
Edinson Volquez	0.202	1.40	0.125	3.47	1.29
Chris Volstad	0.215	2.13	0.138	2.97	1.10
Tim Wakefield	0.218	1.39	0.076	2.93	1.13
Jeff Karstens	0.220	0.69	0.301	5.85	1.55
Kevin Millwood	0.221	3.13	0.161	2.78	0.99
Jonathan Sanchez	0.222	1.28	0.200	3.80	1.55
Ted Lilly	0.222	3.44	0.204	3.11	1.01
Yovani Gallardo	0.224	3.25	0.140	3.02	0.96
Jered Weaver	0.225	3.44	0.155	2.66	0.98
Brian Bannister	0.233	1.27	0.057	1.48	1.19
Jair Jurrjens	0.238	1.25	0.117	2.01	1.19
Brian Tallet	0.239	1.57	0.276	5.83	1.40
James Shields	0.242	1.77	0.170	3.51	1.20
Jason Marquis	0.243	1.58	0.144	3.92	1.21
Mark Buehrle	0.243	2.18	0.109	2.61	1.08
Dan Haren	0.246	5.67	0.080	1.84	0.86
John Maine	0.247	1.22	0.103	5.20	1.37
Scott Richmond	0.247	2.17	0.157	2.67	1.22

On the other hand, expect the WHIPs of these players to come down:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Dana Eveland	0.429	0.94	0.093	7.40	2.34
Felipe Paulino	0.424	1.70	0.107	5.23	1.89
Josh Beckett	0.396	2.12	0.158	6.75	1.82
Brian Bass	0.383	2.86	0.259	6.20	1.72
Ricky Nolasco	0.379	3.00	0.209	7.03	1.63
Oliver Perez	0.379	0.95	0.191	9.97	2.26
Kevin Slowey	0.376	12.50	0.216	5.50	1.51
Joe Blanton	0.373	2.56	0.223	6.84	1.75
Todd Wellemeyer	0.369	1.82	0.139	4.75	1.61
Kevin Correia	0.368	1.31	0.088	5.92	1.77
Brad Bergesen	0.368	1.57	0.156	4.98	1.75
Jon Lester	0.368	3.58	0.193	5.11	1.46
Matt Harrison	0.365	1.00	0.179	6.41	1.91
Andy Sonnanstine	0.363	1.67	0.134	5.79	1.65
Adam Eaton	0.360	2.30	0.188	7.18	1.67
Justin Verlander	0.359	3.75	0.157	5.66	1.37
Cliff Lee	0.359	2.80	0.117	3.92	1.54
Justin Masterson	0.358	2.60	0.092	5.28	1.41
Tim Lincecum	0.355	4.17	0.097	3.05	1.20
Carl Pavano	0.353	2.88	0.186	6.61	1.53
Scott Olsen	0.352	1.85	0.248	6.54	1.71
Eric Stults	0.351	1.07	0.140	4.94	1.77
Kenshin Kawakami	0.351	1.79	0.262	6.41	1.73
Ubaldo Jimenez	0.351	1.50	0.105	5.45	1.61

Players to target: Nolasco, Slowey, Lester, and Verlander.  Lee and Masterson should be considered as well.

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BABIP, Anyone?

Minimum 15 innings pitched.  Those benefitting from low BABIPs so far this year:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Jonathan Sanchez	0.182	1.42	0.175	2.60	1.27
Tim Wakefield	0.184	1.42	0.048	1.86	0.97
Jeff Karstens	0.190	0.89	0.333	5.40	1.40
Brian Tallet	0.204	1.88	0.182	2.95	1.09
Chris Volstad	0.207	1.83	0.145	2.70	1.16
Dan Haren	0.214	7.20	0.089	1.54	0.74
Kevin Millwood	0.216	2.75	0.123	2.13	0.97
Edwin Jackson	0.221	2.63	0.150	2.25	1.03
Ted Lilly	0.227	2.67	0.241	3.80	1.10
John Danks	0.230	2.25	0.122	2.74	1.09
Yovani Gallardo	0.232	2.88	0.116	3.71	1.01
James Shields	0.233	1.55	0.198	3.74	1.22
Jarrod Washburn	0.238	2.43	0.160	3.42	1.10
Rick Porcello	0.241	3.67	0.214	4.50	1.17
Scott Kazmir	0.242	1.42	0.159	3.97	1.32
Koji Uehara	0.243	2.33	0.187	4.56	1.14
John Maine	0.246	1.25	0.128	5.40	1.34

These WHIPs will not be maintained.  Use extra caution on those with low K/BB ratios.

Here's a look at those with high BABIPs/bad luck:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Todd Wellemeyer	0.451	2.17	0.105	6.14	1.95
Joe Blanton	0.429	2.86	0.270	8.41	1.97
Carl Pavano	0.417	3.20	0.250	9.50	1.89
Dana Eveland	0.408	1.00	0.048	5.95	2.08
Cole Hamels	0.407	3.75	0.311	7.27	1.79
Tim Lincecum	0.404	5.00	0.129	2.96	1.27
Ubaldo Jimenez	0.404	1.12	0.105	7.58	2.11
Ricky Nolasco	0.398	2.44	0.187	6.92	1.69
Andy Sonnanstine	0.397	1.88	0.155	7.78	1.83
Adam Eaton	0.397	2.63	0.176	7.17	1.73
Jon Lester	0.394	3.71	0.147	4.88	1.50
Shane Loux	0.391	0.83	0.071	6.61	1.96
Justin Verlander	0.388	3.78	0.179	6.75	1.54
Aaron Cook	0.387	1.00	0.247	8.35	2.13
Matt Harrison	0.367	0.75	0.196	7.89	2.08
Vicente Padilla	0.366	1.88	0.189	8.27	1.84
Yusmeiro Petit	0.365	1.63	0.246	8.62	1.98
Javier Vazquez	0.362	4.86	0.097	2.63	1.21

These guys might be considered buy-low candidates, if they have high ERAs and strong peripherals.  Individual thoughts:

• Wellemeyer leads baseball in hits allowed, but he's improved his control.
• Nolasco leads baseball in earned runs.  His K rate is still fine, but he's lost his amazing control from last year.  I don't know if he's hiding an injury, but otherwise he looks like a nice buy low.  His owner might not be able to get past that 6.92 ERA.
• Lester: walks down, Ks way up.  This is good.  He has a fluky-high 18.8% HR per flyball rate coupled with the .394 BABIP.  I would try to get him on the cheap.
• Verlander: same story.  Go get him.

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BABIP, Anyone?

Time for another installment.  The lowest BABIPs, minimum 10 innings pitched:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Andrew Bailey	0.053	6.50	0.091	0.87	0.39
Anthony Reyes	0.118	0.50	0.366	5.73	1.27
John Danks	0.148	1.86	0.073	0.75	1.00
Jonathan Sanchez	0.154	1.22	0.231	3.97	1.32
Edwin Jackson	0.158	2.60	0.178	2.14	0.81
Chris Carpenter	0.179	4.50	0.027	0.00	0.70
Ted Lilly	0.179	5.50	0.326	3.86	0.94
Joe Saunders	0.180	1.17	0.114	2.18	0.92
Brian Tallet	0.182	2.00	0.244	4.26	1.03
Jeff Karstens	0.194	0.57	0.167	3.60	1.40
Kyle Lohse	0.197	4.00	0.108	2.57	0.76
Kevin Millwood	0.203	3.50	0.051	1.17	0.78
A.J. Burnett	0.213	1.89	0.149	3.20	1.12
Tim Wakefield	0.213	1.14	0.036	3.00	1.13
Paul Maholm	0.215	1.00	0.042	0.87	0.97
Brett Myers	0.216	3.00	0.355	5.03	1.22
Bartolo Colon	0.216	2.00	0.136	3.86	1.03
Glen Perkins	0.219	3.00	0.035	1.50	0.83
Brandon McCarthy	0.222	1.56	0.297	4.76	1.41
Trevor Cahill	0.222	0.38	0.102	2.60	1.44
Jarrod Washburn	0.224	4.25	0.105	1.71	0.86
Dan Haren	0.229	5.67	0.076	1.89	0.79

I typically red-flag anyone with a low BABIP, nice ERA, and a K/BB under 2.0.  So Danks, Sanchez, Saunders, Karstens, Burnett, Wakefield, Maholm, McCarthy, and Cahill fit this description so far.  We're talking about two starts in some cases though so there's really not enough to draw conclusions. 

Those experiencing bad luck so far:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Joe Blanton	0.455	3.67	0.217	9.00	2.00
Todd Wellemeyer	0.453	2.00	0.111	5.29	1.94
Dana Eveland	0.439	1.00	0.061	7.36	2.32
Tim Lincecum	0.439	3.83	0.138	3.86	1.53
Cliff Lee	0.400	1.75	0.169	6.75	2.00
Vicente Padilla	0.400	2.20	0.203	9.64	2.00
Ricky Nolasco	0.396	4.00	0.210	6.60	1.60
Carl Pavano	0.395	3.25	0.296	9.69	1.69
Matt Harrison	0.395	0.56	0.200	8.44	2.44
Aaron Cook	0.395	1.50	0.333	10.22	2.11
Jon Lester	0.388	4.75	0.169	5.50	1.44
Zach Miner	0.382	1.20	0.302	8.10	2.10
Joel Pineiro	0.381	1.25	0.229	5.40	1.80
Ubaldo Jimenez	0.375	1.23	0.107	6.00	1.87
Kevin Slowey	0.371	6.00	0.253	5.89	1.64
Sidney Ponson	0.365	1.00	0.111	7.04	1.96
Justin Verlander	0.364	2.86	0.227	7.88	1.56
Carlos Zambrano	0.354	2.22	0.208	5.21	1.58
Brian Bass	0.353	2.00	0.468	10.45	2.03
Felix Hernandez	0.353	3.33	0.083	4.26	1.32

I'm not worried about Lincecum, Nolasco, Lester, Verlander, or Felix.  I doubt their owners are looking to sell at this point anyway.  How to use the ISO against stat: if it's around .150 or less, it means the guy is not giving up an abnormal amount of extra base hits.  So looking at Felix, those extra hits dropping in are singles.

---

BABIP, Anyone?

Is it too early for the first BABIP, Anyone entry of 2009?  Definitely.  We're using the ridiculously low minimum of five innings pitched.  But just for the hell of it, here are your early leaders.

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
John Maine	0.000	5.00	0.353	3.60	0.60
Chris Carpenter	0.059	3.50	0.000	0.00	0.43
Edwin Jackson	0.108	1.75	0.255	3.38	0.83
Anthony Reyes	0.111	0.67	0.286	6.00	1.00
Chad Billingsley	0.143	1.00	0.000	3.00	1.00
Alfredo Simon	0.143	1.50	0.316	7.20	1.20
Kyle Lohse	0.152	8.00	0.073	1.13	0.56
Bartolo Colon	0.158	1.00	0.000	0.00	0.83
Andy Pettitte	0.167	6.00	0.083	1.29	0.57
Brad Penny	0.167	1.00	0.318	4.50	1.17
Joba Chamberlain	0.176	5.00	0.261	1.50	0.83
Brett Myers	0.182	6.00	0.412	5.54	1.08
Vicente Padilla	0.188	1.67	0.136	4.76	1.24
Dan Haren	0.188	3.67	0.091	2.08	0.77
John Danks	0.188	1.67	0.000	0.00	1.00
Mark Buehrle	0.188	2.67	0.190	2.38	0.97
Matt Garza	0.190	1.67	0.115	1.29	1.00
Jon Garland	0.190	0.67	0.167	3.86	1.14
Trevor Cahill	0.194	0.50	0.100	2.25	1.25
Joe Saunders	0.195	0.80	0.170	2.63	1.10

On the flip side, how about these unlucky fellows?

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Todd Wellemeyer	0.571	1.50	0.083	9.00	2.80
Tim Lincecum	0.500	1.67	0.243	7.56	2.40
Jon Lester	0.467	2.50	0.238	9.00	2.00
Johnny Cueto	0.467	9.00	0.320	6.00	1.50
Cliff Lee	0.457	2.00	0.174	9.90	2.20
Matt Harrison	0.429	0.40	0.130	6.35	2.47
Kris Benson	0.421	1.50	0.292	12.60	2.40
Brian Bass	0.421	2.50	0.655	16.88	2.81
Rick Porcello	0.412	4.00	0.261	7.20	2.00
A.J. Burnett	0.400	6.00	0.182	3.38	1.50
Bronson Arroyo	0.400	2.00	0.083	7.50	1.67
Scott Olsen	0.400	0.83	0.378	14.63	2.50
Dana Eveland	0.400	2.00	0.042	4.50	1.67
Aaron Cook	0.400	2.00	0.250	9.72	1.92

Yes, looking at BABIP for guys with one start is pretty much useless.  I was itching to do it anyway to see who the first-week leaders are. 

What we all really want to know is this.  Was this a two-start blip for Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum, or will last year's Cy Young winners post ERAs around 4.00 in 2009?  For Lee, his combined game score for his two starts is 61.  He did something similar last year - his May 30th and June 4th starts had a combined game score of 69.  Lincecum's combined game score is 75 this year.  He had a combined 90 for June 16th and 22nd in '08, but nothing worse than that.  Going back to his rookie season we find a combined 51 after stinkers vs. the Blue Jays and Brewers in June of '07.

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