BABIP, Anyone?

Stock Watch: Do You Feel Lucky?

With the season's first month done and played, it's time to take a look at who's hot and cold starts are due to skill (or lack of it), and which are due to luck. A star plagued with a low BABIP makes a great trade target, while a young guy playing over his head is a great player to sell. Below, we'll take a look at some players who should be moving on or off your team.

Trade Targets

B.J. Upton is off to a start as bad as his brother's is good. Always a drag on batting average, he's killing owners like me Adam Dunn-style so far, while putting up little of his trademark power or speed. It's hard to steal bases with a .223 OBP. In fact, he's been so frustrating that I almost put him on the Trade Away list because I've grown to hate seeing his name in my lineup. That's an emotion you can use. His BABIP is a frightening .185, over 100 points below his career norm, much of which can be traced to his eye-popping infield fly rate of 29.6%, well over double his highest full season number. The two options seem to be that he figures out how to cut those popups down, or he's all washed up at age 28. The former seems much more likely.

Will Middlebrooks isn't so bad off as B.J., but he's still dragging averages down with a .198 mark. A .217 BABIP seems to be the problem, while the major change in his batted ball data is that he was a groundball hitter last year and a flyball hitter this year. That isn't necessarily a bad thing, as his six homers will attest. His BABIP ought to normalize, at which point he could be a four-category monster in a heavy lineup. The upside is clear, and the downside is mitigated by the weak and injured status of third basemen around the league.

Gio Gonzalez is a risky trade proposition, as with slightly lowered velocity and a walk rate over 5.00, his troubles haven't been entirely due to luck. His ERA sits at 5.35, but his FIP is better at 4.09, and his xFIP better still at 3.51. So, some bad luck seems to be exacerbating things. With a K/9 over 10.00 and a quality lineup, there's still plenty of upside if you can trade for him at a significantly reduced price.

Clay Buchholz has been almost too good to trade away, but if his owner is looking to sell high, consider being the buyer. His years of sub-mediocrity make him look like a sell target, with his 1.01 ERA, but the underlying story says otherwise. He's got a sparkly 2.26 FIP and a very good 2.99 xFIP, to go with a strikeout rate of 9.47. The indications are that he isn't the same pitcher that has filled Red Sox Nation with disappointment for the last few years. If you're still skeptical, check out this article from Fangraphs. If you're still skeptical after that...um, don't trade for Buchholz, I guess.

Trade Away

Carlos Gomez went from disappointing speedster to power/speed fantasy gold last season, and he's kept it up this year. Owners were bullish on him in drafts, and they've been vindicated so far, as Gomez has delivered five homers and seven steals. His usually low average sits at an impressive .367. Okay, I understate. It's at an unbelievable .367. How'd it get there? Try a .419 BABIP, with help from a line drive percentage up four points from last season. Even if his hit profile has changed (and one month of extra liners doesn't prove much), he hasn't magically transformed into Joey Votto with speed. Deal him, as he could fetch a pretty serious return.

Jay Bruce is the sort of slumping superstar that I would have expected to advise you to trade for...until I looked under his statistical hood. He's got just one homer and 43 strikeouts through 30 games--his HR/FB has cratered to just 4.1%, while his popup rate has more than doubled. Everything seems to be going wrong...except his batting average. It's low--just .258--but actually better than last year. Thanks to a BABIP over 100 points higher than last year, at .388. When the BABIP goes, the results will be horrifying. Exactly what's wrong with Bruce, I couldn't say, but I can say that he's actually been lucky. Trade him while you can.

Matt Kemp is experiencing a power outage of his own, which I worried about before the season. Probably because of his surgically repaired shoulder, things are actually worse than I expected and it looks like a loss of flyball distance  could be the culprit. His batting average is a mediocre .267, buoyed by a fortuitous .351 BABIP. That could easily drop before his shoulder heals, but it's still early enough to recoup a good return for him.

I mentioned Matt Moore as a trade candidate last week, and I'll just back that up now by pointing out that his 4.08 FIP compares unfavorably with his 1.98 ERA.

Pick Up

Brandon McCarthy's ERA sits at a whopping 7.22, but his FIP is just 4.04. A skilled pitcher, he ought to be able to improve on that FIP, let alone the ERA. His ownership rates are just: Y!: 30%/ESPN: 16.5%/CBS: 28%. If his is owned, he makes a sneaky-smart throw in, in a larger deal.

Hector Santiago (Y!: 2%/ESPN: 0.1%/CBS: 8%) briefly closed for the White Sox last year, but now he'll be moving into the rotation. His first start was successful, and, with Gavin Floyd out, we could be seeing lots of the hard-throwing Santiago in the rotation. Very interesting waiver wire opportunity.

Francisco Liriano (Y!: 5%/ESPN: 0.2%/CBS: 25%) has been mowing down the International League for the Indianapolis Indians on his rehab assignment, but he's should be up with the big club again soon. He's got as much upside--and downside--as anyone on the waiver wire.

Chris Tillman (Y!: 17%/ESPN:  2.3%/CBS: 34%) has rattled off three good starts in a row, making four of six. The mere possibility that he's finally harnessing his talent makes him worth a speculative add.

Nick Hundley (Y!: 8%/ESPN: 5.2%/CBS: 23%) is batting over his head, with a .421 BABIP, but he's got three homers and nine doubles. He's shown some power in limited playing time before, and he could be a very useful stopgap option if you're having trouble at catcher. Unlike most such options, he's got a bit of upside.

Domonic Brown (Y!: 24%/ESPN: 22.5%/CBS: 73%) was a hot pick after his torrid spring, but he saw his ownership rates drop after a relatively slow start. Well, he's got five homers and an average that won't kill you--pick him up unless you have a great outfield. Not that you have that option in CBS leagues....

Just Say No

Scott Feldman is a hot pickup lately, after whiffing 12 Padres in a complete game on May 1. It was a truly dominating performance, but remember, it was against the Padres, and his overall game isn't impressive. Stay away.

Ricky Romero once pitched over his head all season and made an All-Star team. Once he was even a pretty decent pitcher. Last year, he was basically the worst starter in the Majors. Nothing about his return to the bigs indicated otherwise. He'll probably get some pickups based on the familiarity of his name alone, but don't get sucked into that. His best-case scenario is no better than being average-ish, without strikeouts. The downside is that he bombs your ratios for several starts and gets sent back to the minors. Nota good bet.

---

8 Pitchers Whose WHIPs Should Fall Next Year

We still like pointing out BABIP anomalies, call us old-fashioned.  Here are a few to watch for 2011 on the high side.

• James Shields - .354 BABIP.  I was going to do a post on how Shields is the new Javier Vazquez, always underperforming in ERA compared to his peripherals.  But then I realized there really isn't any such trend.  SIERA says 3.57 for Shields this year, way below his actual 5.18 ERA.  His 1.46 WHIP should scare off bidders as well.  He should be the best 187-strikeout bargain around in 2011 drafts, perhaps rounds 13-16.
• Manny Parra - .352 BABIP.  One of the hardest-throwing lefty starters, Parra will probably be tendered a contract by the Brewers on the strength of his 9.52 K/9.  SIERA says 3.82 as opposed to his 5.02 ERA, but Parra's control is an issue.  So while his WHIP will come down from 1.62, it still won't be good.
• Josh Beckett - .349 BABIP.  He had a 3.84 SIERA against a scary 5.78 ERA and an uncharacteristic 1.54 WHIP.  There's no reason we can't get the Beckett of '09 next year.  His poor season should push him toward the 10th round.
• Brandon Morrow - .348 BABIP.  He whiffed 178 in just 146.3 innings, but still had a 1.38 WHIP.  His walk rate will keep that WHIP at an unhelpful level, but his 8.36 hits per nine rate could actually come down.  Certainly an intriguing name for 2011 drafts, with his 17-strikeout one-hitter fresh in our minds.
• Zach Duke - .347 BABIP.  A 4.58 SIERA says he could have some uses in real baseball for a new club, but he's not a mixed league option.
• Aaron Harang - .346 BABIP.  His SIERA was only 4.44; Harang is definitely slipping.  Even if his WHIP comes down from 1.59 it will still hurt.  In the right ballpark, very late in the draft, I'd still consider him.
• Yovani Gallardo - .340 BABIP.  He cut down on the walks but still had a career-worst 1.37 WHIP.  On the plus side he struck out 200 for the second year in a row.  Maybe next year he puts it all together and takes a leap in value.  Sound investment around the 8th round.
• Francisco Liriano - .340 BABIP.  His 1.26 WHIP could have been even lower.  His 3.02 SIERA against his 3.62 ERA shows there's room for more here.  However, Liriano won't be drafted in the 19th round on average this time around.
• Honorable mentions to Jason Hammel (.337) and Jonathon Niese (.335).

---

9 Pitchers Who Should Post A Higher WHIP Next Year

BABIP used to be a cool, underground fantasy stat when we fired up this blog in 2005, but now it's on every street corner.  Nonetheless, here are nine pitchers with BABIPs of .265 or below in 2010.  We should expect these BABIPs to rise in 2011, meaning more hits and a higher WHIP and ERA.

• Trevor Cahill - .238 BABIP.  Cahill had a 4.16 SIERA as opposed to his 2.97 ERA.  He's obviously talented, and gets a lot of groundballs, but I typically stay away from low-strikeout starters in fantasy baseball.
• Bronson Arroyo - .246 BABIP.  His lowest figure since becoming a full-time starter in '04.  He did manage a .270 mark in '09, but previously bounced around in the .285-.321 range.  He's not big on strikeouts or groundballs and had a 4.66 SIERA next to his 3.88 ERA.  Fill out your rotation with someone more interesting in the late rounds.
• Tim Hudson - .250 BABIP.  He had a ridiculous groundball rate, and posted a 3.70 SIERA against his 2.83 ERA.  If you have to take a low strikeout guy Hudson is probably your best bet.
• Ted Lilly - .259 BABIP.  He's never been above .283 in the NL (Expos debut aside), so I think he does suppress hits as a skill.  His 3.8 K/BB is sparkling, but he allows a ton of flyballs.  I'd look for an ERA in the 3.80 range from Ted.  Always a solid choice when solid second-tier starters fall off the board in the 10th-15th rounds.
• Matt Cain - .260 BABIP.  Cain has a .274 career BABIP and has allowed as many as eight hits per nine innings in only one of his 5+ seasons.  He's another flyball guy, but he showed the best control of his career this year.  His SIERA was 3.90 this year though his ERA over the past two seasons was 3.02.  I'm not sure projection systems have a good read on Cain.  He's a fine mid-rotation fantasy choice.
• Roy Oswalt - .261 BABIP.  Oswalt seemed undervalued coming into this season, but in March 2011 the opposite might be true.  There's nothing not to like, but his incredible work with the Phillies might push him into the fifth or sixth round.  I'm not prepared to do that.
• Jonathan Sanchez - .262 BABIP.  Sanchez led the NL with the lowest hits per nine innings at 6.6, but also led the league in walks.  He was helpful in WHIP this year, but probably won't be in 2011 unless he suddenly finds control.  I fear that Sanchez's big year will push him out of sleeper territory, even though he still walks a ton.
• Clay Buchholz - .265 BABIP.  We know he's talented, but the 2.33 ERA is nowhere near the 4.29 SIERA.  Buchholz didn't excel with strikeouts or walks.  You have to think he'll be overrated in drafts, but there's always a chance he pulls a Justin Verlander and his peripherals catch up.
• Ian Kennedy - .265 BABIP.  Nice sleeper for strikeouts, but he's homer-prone.  Those longballs should come with more baserunners next year.  Draft him with caution, but I don't think he'll go too early anyway.

---

BABIP, Anyone?

Been a while since we checked in our BABIP leaders and trailers.  Minimum 75 IP.

Those benefitting from low BABIPs should see their WHIPs rise:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Scott Feldman	0.236	1.56	0.136	3.59	1.14
Dan Haren	0.240	7.42	0.121	2.14	0.84
Scott Richmond	0.246	2.37	0.211	3.69	1.20
Jarrod Washburn	0.247	2.60	0.116	2.71	1.06
Edwin Jackson	0.249	2.36	0.143	2.59	1.11
Chris Carpenter	0.255	4.75	0.098	2.26	0.91
Shairon Martis	0.256	0.87	0.178	5.25	1.42
Randy Wolf	0.257	2.71	0.169	3.45	1.13
Yovani Gallardo	0.259	2.16	0.149	3.09	1.25
Chris Young	0.260	1.25	0.189	5.21	1.45
Jeff Karstens	0.260	1.03	0.189	4.40	1.36
J.A. Happ	0.261	2.15	0.140	2.97	1.18
Mark Buehrle	0.262	2.92	0.164	3.28	1.10
Trevor Cahill	0.262	1.09	0.223	4.50	1.45
Matt Garza	0.263	2.32	0.134	3.68	1.20
Kevin Millwood	0.268	1.87	0.156	3.39	1.28
Jair Jurrjens	0.268	1.87	0.121	2.67	1.20
Clayton Kershaw	0.269	1.75	0.090	2.96	1.26
Jered Weaver	0.269	2.73	0.157	3.57	1.18

It's time to sell high on Feldman, who has a 4.80 xFIP.  Happ is another player to shop, especially given the possibility he lands in the AL East as part of a Roy Halladay trade.

Here are the buying opportunities, guys who should see their WHIPs come down:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Todd Wellemeyer	0.360	1.45	0.177	5.79	1.75
Kevin Slowey	0.355	5.00	0.194	4.86	1.41
Manny Parra	0.354	1.48	0.172	6.42	1.80
Ricky Nolasco	0.344	4.04	0.192	5.42	1.36
Aaron Harang	0.344	3.67	0.180	4.25	1.43
Jordan Zimmermann	0.343	3.17	0.157	4.63	1.36
Jason Hammel	0.342	2.80	0.156	4.28	1.45
Carl Pavano	0.339	3.68	0.177	5.48	1.40
Livan Hernandez	0.335	1.54	0.162	4.87	1.53
Jon Lester	0.335	3.56	0.130	3.79	1.29
Cole Hamels	0.335	4.57	0.195	4.66	1.33

Sorry to say, there's not much here.  Favorites of mine like Zimmermann and Slowey are on the shelf.  Parra, Hammel, and Pavano are mildly interesting.  Check the price on Harang.

---

BABIP, Anyone?

Time to take a look at our BABIP leaders and trailers, with a minimum of 40 IP.  Here are those benefitting from low BABIPs:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Edinson Volquez	0.224	1.47	0.163	4.35	1.33
Luke Hochevar	0.224	1.06	0.171	4.96	1.21
Chris Carpenter	0.230	5.30	0.115	2.42	0.82
Dan Haren	0.232	7.53	0.123	2.19	0.81
Garrett Olson	0.236	1.86	0.222	4.81	1.23
Scott Feldman	0.240	1.65	0.151	4.09	1.18
Matt Garza	0.242	2.10	0.148	3.45	1.18
Yovani Gallardo	0.244	2.48	0.149	2.75	1.15
Sean West	0.245	1.24	0.158	4.06	1.38
Scott Richmond	0.246	2.37	0.211	3.69	1.20
John Maine	0.246	1.24	0.140	4.52	1.38
J.A. Happ	0.247	1.61	0.149	3.00	1.23
Johnny Cueto	0.251	2.44	0.154	2.69	1.12
CC Sabathia	0.252	2.52	0.110	3.55	1.09
Edwin Jackson	0.255	2.90	0.122	2.49	1.04
Shairon Martis	0.256	0.87	0.178	5.25	1.42
Chris Jakubauskas	0.258	1.53	0.196	5.46	1.28
Brian Tallet	0.258	1.58	0.157	4.47	1.33
Jered Weaver	0.258	2.61	0.149	3.10	1.13
Joe Saunders	0.259	1.74	0.185	4.24	1.30

Those with low K/BB ratios are possible sell candidates. 

Now those with high BABIPs, which figure to come down:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Billy Buckner	0.376	2.20	0.262	8.63	1.77
Cole Hamels	0.376	4.28	0.178	4.98	1.47
John Lackey	0.375	2.80	0.144	5.06	1.52
Manny Parra	0.365	1.34	0.191	7.52	1.92
Scott Olsen	0.363	2.00	0.250	6.56	1.75
Sidney Ponson	0.362	1.41	0.141	7.27	1.73
Ricky Nolasco	0.355	3.89	0.201	5.99	1.45
Justin Masterson	0.353	2.57	0.128	4.28	1.39
Felipe Paulino	0.353	2.71	0.176	5.51	1.54
Todd Wellemeyer	0.352	1.38	0.163	5.68	1.70
Kevin Slowey	0.351	4.73	0.184	4.41	1.40
Chan Ho Park	0.348	1.83	0.150	6.04	1.60
Scott Kazmir	0.348	1.33	0.182	7.28	1.86
Derek Holland	0.348	2.44	0.217	6.20	1.60
Rich Hill	0.347	1.37	0.181	7.08	1.80
Jorge De La Rosa	0.346	2.29	0.171	5.64	1.49
Carl Pavano	0.346	3.78	0.167	5.56	1.41
Adam Eaton	0.343	1.47	0.259	8.56	1.83
Jon Lester	0.340	3.80	0.144	4.35	1.31

Hamels, Lackey, and Nolasco stand as buy-low candidates, if it's not too late.  Paulino and Slowey are intriguing as well.

---

BABIP, Anyone?

We'll keep the minimum IP at 30, but remove the relievers.  Those helped by low BABIPs:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Sean West	0.156	1.15	0.128	3.00	1.03
Chris Carpenter	0.196	5.29	0.118	1.59	0.73
J.A. Happ	0.221	1.54	0.177	3.53	1.22
Dan Haren	0.221	6.92	0.134	2.20	0.81
Edinson Volquez	0.224	1.47	0.163	4.35	1.33
Yovani Gallardo	0.230	2.41	0.154	2.88	1.10
Josh Outman	0.235	2.21	0.135	3.43	1.14
Scott Feldman	0.235	1.55	0.141	3.70	1.17
Jered Weaver	0.242	2.96	0.129	2.08	1.00
Johnny Cueto	0.245	2.48	0.143	2.17	1.07
Brian Tallet	0.246	1.66	0.178	4.87	1.29
John Maine	0.246	1.24	0.140	4.52	1.38
Edwin Jackson	0.247	2.83	0.118	2.24	1.03
Matt Garza	0.248	2.15	0.139	3.63	1.19
Ted Lilly	0.250	3.45	0.164	2.94	1.06
Kevin Millwood	0.251	1.81	0.153	2.72	1.21
Shairon Martis	0.253	0.97	0.184	5.04	1.35
Matt Palmer	0.255	1.50	0.122	4.11	1.27
Garrett Olson	0.255	1.42	0.213	4.26	1.39
Randy Wolf	0.256	2.75	0.161	3.41	1.13
C.C. Sabathia	0.258	2.31	0.103	3.68	1.13

Be skeptical of those with K/BBs under 2.0.

Now those with abnormally high BABIPs:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Daisuke Matsuzaka	0.449	2.29	0.255	7.55	2.10
Ricky Nolasco	0.395	2.94	0.226	7.62	1.73
Ervin Santana	0.387	1.62	0.198	7.47	1.85
John Lackey	0.385	3.50	0.161	6.10	1.57
Felipe Paulino	0.375	2.18	0.183	6.18	1.72
Scott Olsen	0.366	1.61	0.268	7.24	1.90
Manny Parra	0.365	1.34	0.191	7.52	1.92
Brian Moehler	0.363	2.21	0.231	6.66	1.68
Sidney Ponson	0.362	1.41	0.141	7.27	1.73
Scott Kazmir	0.358	1.21	0.179	7.69	1.95
Justin Masterson	0.356	2.56	0.112	3.88	1.39
Shane Loux	0.355	1.00	0.121	5.40	1.72
Cole Hamels	0.354	4.67	0.202	4.62	1.38
Chan Ho Park	0.352	1.61	0.160	6.08	1.67
Jordan Zimmermann	0.351	3.75	0.187	5.37	1.35

• Dice-K still has a control problem, but that is an absurd amount of hits (51 in 31 IP).
• Nolasco, Santana, Lackey, Hamels...they will all get better.
• I think Zimmermann should be owned in all leagues.  He has 13 Ks against 2 BBs and 3 ER in his last two starts spanning 13 IP.

---

BABIP, Anyone?

We're due for another edition.  Minimum 40 IP.

Those being helped by low BABIPs:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Matt Palmer	0.221	1.59	0.123	4.06	1.15
Edinson Volquez	0.224	1.47	0.163	4.35	1.33
Brian Tallet	0.225	1.62	0.189	4.26	1.24
Josh Outman	0.227	1.90	0.144	3.06	1.19
Johnny Cueto	0.235	2.50	0.150	2.53	1.03
Scott Feldman	0.238	1.53	0.129	3.91	1.18
Matt Garza	0.238	2.36	0.142	3.67	1.13
Dan Haren	0.244	7.80	0.134	2.42	0.86
Jered Weaver	0.245	2.94	0.137	2.36	1.03
Chris Volstad	0.246	2.57	0.198	3.71	1.13
Ted Lilly	0.247	3.06	0.193	3.50	1.09
Yovani Gallardo	0.247	2.71	0.161	3.18	1.12
John Maine	0.248	1.28	0.105	3.75	1.34
Kevin Millwood	0.254	1.87	0.169	3.23	1.23
Edwin Jackson	0.256	3.17	0.117	2.30	1.04
Randy Wolf	0.257	2.64	0.160	3.21	1.14
Dave Bush	0.259	2.50	0.241	4.38	1.19

Be wary of those with weak K/BB ratios, like Palmer, Feldman, and Maine.

On to those who have been hurt by high BABIPs:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Ricky Nolasco	0.395	2.85	0.255	9.07	1.81
Jon Lester	0.375	3.08	0.176	5.65	1.55
Jason Hammel	0.375	2.25	0.170	4.83	1.73
Jordan Zimmermann	0.370	3.36	0.199	6.07	1.48
Scott Olsen	0.366	1.61	0.268	7.24	1.90
Felipe Paulino	0.364	1.94	0.186	6.21	1.71
Sidney Ponson	0.362	1.41	0.141	7.27	1.73
Cole Hamels	0.361	5.00	0.249	5.21	1.41
Tim Lincecum	0.359	4.33	0.084	3.01	1.23
Scott Kazmir	0.358	1.21	0.179	7.69	1.95
Manny Parra	0.356	1.42	0.168	6.75	1.83
Cliff Lee	0.353	3.38	0.091	3.16	1.41
Justin Masterson	0.353	2.29	0.112	4.25	1.42
Andy Sonnanstine	0.352	2.00	0.207	7.07	1.68

We've talked about many of these guys.  It might be time to stash Nolasco, if he was dropped when he was sent to the minors.  Hammel might be a decent spot start away from Coors, at times.  Buy low on Lee, if possible.

---

BABIP, Anyone?

Time for this week's installment.  Minimum 30 IP. 

Those being helped by low BABIPs:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Matt Palmer	0.202	1.38	0.138	4.26	1.14
Edinson Volquez	0.213	1.45	0.156	4.25	1.29
Brian Tallet	0.217	1.57	0.204	4.47	1.24
Matt Garza	0.221	1.96	0.137	3.50	1.09
Jered Weaver	0.225	3.23	0.155	2.59	0.97
Ted Lilly	0.233	3.58	0.204	3.35	1.04
Randy Wolf	0.234	2.42	0.156	2.72	1.07
Tim Wakefield	0.236	1.30	0.101	3.59	1.25
Lance Cormier	0.238	1.71	0.088	2.10	1.07
Chris Volstad	0.240	2.65	0.185	3.64	1.12
Scott Feldman	0.241	1.58	0.112	4.04	1.18
Johnny Cueto	0.243	3.08	0.130	2.35	1.01
Jair Jurrjens	0.245	1.60	0.108	1.96	1.13
Dan Haren	0.246	6.22	0.084	2.09	0.86

Those on the other side of the coin:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Tim Lincecum	0.389	4.13	0.088	3.75	1.31
Jon Lester	0.388	3.38	0.212	6.51	1.62
Ricky Nolasco	0.382	2.92	0.232	7.78	1.68
Jason Hammel	0.373	2.22	0.164	4.60	1.72
Andy Sonnanstine	0.371	1.71	0.209	7.36	1.79
Carl Pavano	0.370	3.20	0.171	6.33	1.55
Gavin Floyd	0.367	1.52	0.160	7.71	1.87
Scott Olsen	0.366	1.61	0.268	7.24	1.90
Jordan Zimmermann	0.365	2.91	0.203	6.35	1.50
Justin Masterson	0.365	2.50	0.105	4.57	1.43
Kevin Slowey	0.365	8.75	0.201	4.50	1.44
Todd Wellemeyer	0.359	1.29	0.158	5.87	1.74
Scott Kazmir	0.358	1.21	0.179	7.69	1.95
Josh Beckett	0.357	2.00	0.149	5.85	1.66
Shane Loux	0.355	1.00	0.121	5.40	1.72
Cole Hamels	0.354	4.22	0.261	4.95	1.40

• Long-term, Slowey is going to help your WHIP.  And I have to keep beating the drum for Lester and Nolasco, who probably deserve ERAs around 4.00 right now.

---

BABIP, Anyone?

Yes, it's that time again...let's see what BABIP can tell us this week.  Minimum 25 IP.  The following will see their WHIPs rise, all else being equal:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Matt Palmer	0.182	1.60	0.084	3.38	0.98
Brian Tallet	0.213	1.48	0.225	4.68	1.28
Matt Garza	0.215	2.21	0.149	3.56	1.04
Jered Weaver	0.215	3.50	0.151	2.45	0.94
Edinson Volquez	0.217	1.54	0.149	4.40	1.30
Chris Volstad	0.226	2.06	0.162	2.98	1.13
Kevin Millwood	0.231	2.45	0.160	2.92	1.05
Randy Wolf	0.234	2.59	0.164	2.77	1.07
Yovani Gallardo	0.237	2.94	0.153	3.09	1.05
Johnny Cueto	0.238	2.77	0.120	1.93	1.01
John Maine	0.241	1.21	0.104	4.24	1.34
Ted Lilly	0.241	4.22	0.215	3.27	1.05
Brian Bannister	0.242	1.42	0.064	1.80	1.17
Dave Bush	0.244	3.60	0.205	3.83	1.04
Scott Feldman	0.245	1.60	0.133	4.85	1.21
Mark Buehrle	0.246	2.50	0.133	3.00	1.09
Dan Haren	0.246	6.22	0.084	2.09	0.86
Jair Jurrjens	0.248	1.41	0.116	2.06	1.17

You might consider shopping those above with a K/BB ratio under 2.0.  Now for those who should see their WHIPs go down:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Jon Lester	0.396	3.77	0.196	6.31	1.57
Andy Sonnanstine	0.387	1.62	0.176	7.27	1.85
Josh Beckett	0.387	2.05	0.148	6.42	1.77
Ricky Nolasco	0.382	2.92	0.232	7.78	1.68
Todd Wellemeyer	0.377	1.71	0.169	5.80	1.74
Cole Hamels	0.373	4.43	0.233	5.04	1.45
Scott Olsen	0.371	1.63	0.252	7.00	1.86
Brad Bergesen	0.371	1.75	0.174	5.27	1.76
Kevin Slowey	0.370	6.75	0.209	4.91	1.54
Gavin Floyd	0.368	1.48	0.137	7.32	1.88
Carl Pavano	0.365	3.25	0.160	6.45	1.54
Joba Chamberlain	0.363	2.00	0.147	3.89	1.56
Tim Lincecum	0.361	4.46	0.096	3.25	1.20
Jason Hammel	0.356	2.00	0.196	4.62	1.70
Shane Loux	0.353	1.30	0.113	4.64	1.61
Justin Masterson	0.351	2.07	0.078	4.89	1.43

• Still digging Lester.  Go after him.  Offer a crappy closer or something.  His fastball is actually up a tick from last year.
• I don't know why Beckett's control has been lousy this year.  But he's interesting and still getting Ks.
• I fully support going after Nolasco.  If I owned him, I'd be getting frustrated.
• You know Slowey will eventually help your WHIP.  Never walks anyone.

---

BABIP, Anyone?

Minimum 20 innings pitched.  Holding all else equal, these pitchers will see their WHIPs rise:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Matt Garza	0.190	2.12	0.156	3.51	1.00
Edinson Volquez	0.202	1.40	0.125	3.47	1.29
Chris Volstad	0.215	2.13	0.138	2.97	1.10
Tim Wakefield	0.218	1.39	0.076	2.93	1.13
Jeff Karstens	0.220	0.69	0.301	5.85	1.55
Kevin Millwood	0.221	3.13	0.161	2.78	0.99
Jonathan Sanchez	0.222	1.28	0.200	3.80	1.55
Ted Lilly	0.222	3.44	0.204	3.11	1.01
Yovani Gallardo	0.224	3.25	0.140	3.02	0.96
Jered Weaver	0.225	3.44	0.155	2.66	0.98
Brian Bannister	0.233	1.27	0.057	1.48	1.19
Jair Jurrjens	0.238	1.25	0.117	2.01	1.19
Brian Tallet	0.239	1.57	0.276	5.83	1.40
James Shields	0.242	1.77	0.170	3.51	1.20
Jason Marquis	0.243	1.58	0.144	3.92	1.21
Mark Buehrle	0.243	2.18	0.109	2.61	1.08
Dan Haren	0.246	5.67	0.080	1.84	0.86
John Maine	0.247	1.22	0.103	5.20	1.37
Scott Richmond	0.247	2.17	0.157	2.67	1.22

On the other hand, expect the WHIPs of these players to come down:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Dana Eveland	0.429	0.94	0.093	7.40	2.34
Felipe Paulino	0.424	1.70	0.107	5.23	1.89
Josh Beckett	0.396	2.12	0.158	6.75	1.82
Brian Bass	0.383	2.86	0.259	6.20	1.72
Ricky Nolasco	0.379	3.00	0.209	7.03	1.63
Oliver Perez	0.379	0.95	0.191	9.97	2.26
Kevin Slowey	0.376	12.50	0.216	5.50	1.51
Joe Blanton	0.373	2.56	0.223	6.84	1.75
Todd Wellemeyer	0.369	1.82	0.139	4.75	1.61
Kevin Correia	0.368	1.31	0.088	5.92	1.77
Brad Bergesen	0.368	1.57	0.156	4.98	1.75
Jon Lester	0.368	3.58	0.193	5.11	1.46
Matt Harrison	0.365	1.00	0.179	6.41	1.91
Andy Sonnanstine	0.363	1.67	0.134	5.79	1.65
Adam Eaton	0.360	2.30	0.188	7.18	1.67
Justin Verlander	0.359	3.75	0.157	5.66	1.37
Cliff Lee	0.359	2.80	0.117	3.92	1.54
Justin Masterson	0.358	2.60	0.092	5.28	1.41
Tim Lincecum	0.355	4.17	0.097	3.05	1.20
Carl Pavano	0.353	2.88	0.186	6.61	1.53
Scott Olsen	0.352	1.85	0.248	6.54	1.71
Eric Stults	0.351	1.07	0.140	4.94	1.77
Kenshin Kawakami	0.351	1.79	0.262	6.41	1.73
Ubaldo Jimenez	0.351	1.50	0.105	5.45	1.61

Players to target: Nolasco, Slowey, Lester, and Verlander.  Lee and Masterson should be considered as well.

---

Search Roto Authority

Custom Search

Roto Authority Mailing List

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Roto Authority Features

Recent Posts

Monthly Archives