Atlanta Braves

Mike Minor To Get The Call

Word last night from Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution was that the Braves might call up lefty Mike Minor in the wake of Kris Medlen's strained elbow ligament.  Minor is not yet available in Yahoo leagues, but should you prepare to pounce?

Minor, 22, was drafted seventh overall by the Braves last year.  Baseball America ranked him fourth among Braves prospects before the season, writing that his pitching savvy should make him at least a mid-rotation starter in the bigs.  However, they cautioned that his repertoire most resembled that of Jeremy Sowers.  But things have changed since BA wrote that description.  Check out what Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein wrote a week ago:

Minor's stuff this year has far exceeded all expectations: he's gone from a highly polished pitcher with average stuff to one with the velocity to blow it by hitters when necessary.

Just before that Goldstein wrote that Minor "continues to flash an extra 2-4 ticks on his fastball from his college days, while retaining his command and secondary offerings."  Clearly, Minor is no longer seen as just a "safe" pick. 

Statistically, Minor posted an 11.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in an 87-inning Double A stint and a 9.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in a 31.6-inning Triple A stint.  I worry that he'll walk too many guys as a rookie, as his big league rate might exceed his Double A one.  However, sometimes a rookie lefty can just be tough to hit at first; anecdotally I'm thinking of Jaime Garcia.  In fact Garcia's rates - 7.2 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 with less than a hit per inning - seem like something Minor might approximate.  That means a WHIP that's just OK, but overall numbers worthy of deep mixed leagues.

Of course, trying to predict what Minor might do over less than ten big league starts might be futile.  In the short term, Minor could step in to take Medlen's place Monday at Houston.  I know the Astros had a couple offensive outbursts this week, but it's still not an imposing lineup.  At the least Minor is a reasonable spot-start in most leagues.  He's certainly worth targeting in keeper leagues, as he's more polished than most rookies.  If you're wondering if you should drop a certain starter for Minor, leave a comment and we'll try to figure it out.

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Tommy Hanson To Debut Saturday

Of the three big-name recent callups - Tommy Hanson, Andrew McCutchen, and Gordon Beckham - Hanson is the one to go after in fantasy baseball this year.

Hanson, a 22 year-old righty, debuts Saturday against the Brewers.  There's a good chance he's already owned in your league, but we'll praise him anyway.  In 11 Triple A starts, Hanson whiffed 90 in 66.3 innings.  His control was superb, too.

From Hanson I expect an ERA under 4.00, a WHIP under 1.30, and plenty of Ks.  Sure, there will be bumps along the road.  Maybe he'll toss a few stinkers and get dropped in your league.  But from here on out I expect a solid fantasy  contribution from Hanson.  A good comp might be Tim Lincecum's rookie year - 4.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 150 Ks in 146.3 innings.

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Kenshin Kawakami Examined

One pitcher I haven't paid much attention to this year is Kenshin Kawakami of the Braves.  Ditto for Koji Uehara, but I'm less intrigued with him pitching in the AL East.

Mock drafters are taking Kawakami in the 19th round.  By comparison, Hiroki Kuroda went in the 25th round last year.  So there is increased awareness for mid-level Japanese import starters.

To project Kawakami, we head over to BaseballProjection.com, home of CHONE.  They project Kawakami for a 3.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8 wins, and 113 Ks in 123 innings.  Looks like the makings of a sleeper, especially since the Braves probably are looking to get 180+ innings out of him.  It will be interesting to see a few other projection systems weigh in on Kawakami, who posted a 2.30 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 117.3 innings in Japan last year.

Scouting-wise there is reason for skepticism.  Here's what Keith Law had to say:

Kawakami posted solid strikeout rates in Japan, but without a clear out pitch he doesn't project to miss as many bats in MLB. His fastball is fringe-average, and he'll likely have to change his approach and pitch more with his offspeed stuff. Like all pitchers coming from Japan, he'll also have to adjust to the larger baseball used here.

So we shouldn't count on that projected 8.27 K/9.  Law believes Kawakami will be HR-prone as well.  CHONE has Kawakami's HR rate at 1.02 per nine.  Law believes he will be prone to the four-bagger, so it may be safer to put him down for 1.1 or 1.2.

19th round, though...go for it.  He's a nice guy to snag as the sixth starter on your fantasy team.

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Charlie Morton A Sleeper?

24 year-old Braves righty Charlie Morton seemingly came out of nowhere to post a 2.05 ERA in 79 Triple A innings this year.  That included a solid 2.67 K/BB ratio.  Morton hadn't appeared in Baseball America's top 30 Braves prospects since '05.  Can't blame them - he'd never posted an ERA below 4.29.

Reading this article from BA, Morton seems like a guy whose numbers never caught up with his plus stuff.  So far he's made two big league starts, giving up three runs in each.  Because of injuries to Tom Glavine and Mike Hampton, Morton has the Braves' fifth starter job for now.  Glavine could return around the All-Star break, while Hampton is Hampton.  He did make a rehab start recently though.

My point, I guess, is that Morton has flown under the radar for quite some time and has the repertoire to become a quality big leaguer in a hurry.  He's more of an NL-only guy for now but keep an eye on him.

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Smoltz Setback

You know what the recent John Smoltz setback says to me in fantasy baseball language?  Go pick up Mike Gonzalez.  The plan is still to bring the lefty back from Tommy John surgery later this month.  If he's any kind of decent, I think he moves ahead of Manny Acosta for saves in Atlanta.

Acosta's K/BB is ugly and he's been used in plenty of non-save situations since being named the closer by default.  Gonzalez has the closer pedigree from Pittsburgh.

Maybe Gonzalez never gets a save opp.  Rafael Soriano's outlook seems positive, and he could be back next week.  But you never know; Gonzalez is worth a pre-emptive pickup if you have the bench space and are struggling to get saves. 

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Moylan Down, Acosta Is Next

Manny Acosta is next in the closing pecking order for Atlanta - Pete Moylan just hit the DL.  Go get Acosta if he's still out there.

I should add that Blaine Boyer could easily sneak into the closer role.  Consider him the consolation prize.  Even Will Ohman could get chances in lefty-heavy ninth innings.

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MLB Free Agents 2006: Rafael Furcal

Ah, Rafael Furcal.  Overrated, underrated, or somewhere in-between?  How should you handle this man when it comes to 2006?

Furcal is playing almost exactly on par with what Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projection system expected.  BP thought Furcal would hit .274 with 12 HR and a .337 OBP.  In fact, he's currently hitting .276 with 11 HR and a .341 OBP.  Not bad. 

The only area in which Baseball Prospectus missed the mark was stolen bases.  Furcal has 38 swipes and could get that number up to 50 if he really wants to.  What PECOTA didn't take into account is that 2005 is Rafael Furcal's contract year.

Furcal will easily set a career high in steals this year, and that can only help in the dollar sign department.  After 2004, Edgar Renteria was coming off a .287-10-72 year, adding 17 steals to the equation.  Unlike Furcal, Renteria does have an awesome season under his belt - he hit .330-13-100 with 34 steals in 2003. 

Since Furcal is three years younger than Renteria, he can be expected to match Renteria's four year, $40 million dollar deal.  The players' defense is probably comparable.  It also doesn't hurt that Furcal has been on fire since July. 

So which team will pony up the cash for baseball's third-best shortstop?  The Diamondbacks and Cubs seem to be the most likely suitors.  The Cubs' interest obviously hinges on the Nomar Garciaparra situation.  We just can't see Dusty playing Ronny Cedeno every day, so the Cubs should end up with one of the two. 

What kind of year should you expect out of Furcal in 2006?  With Ray Durham circa 1999 high on his comparables list, an uptick in power is not out the question.  Think maybe 20 homers on the high end.  We expect Furcal to back off on the thefts and end up with 30 steals, tops.

Unfortunately there are only a handful of 20/30 threats from the shortstop position, and Rafael Furcal is one of them.  If he starts be a more selective, consistent hitter, he may be able to hit .300 as well.  Be ready to go up to $20 on him in your auction this spring.   

Check out all the Roto Authority MLB Free Agents 2006 articles.  You'll find speculation and rumors concerning Johnny Damon, A.J. Burnett, Trevor Hoffman, Brian Giles, B.J. Ryan, and more.   

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