ADP Analysis


ADP Analysis: Overrated Hitters

By Tom Warman [February 3, 2012 at 10:44am CST]

Every Friday during the pre-season I will be analyzing ADP-related issues using the most recent information courtesy of Mock Draft Central and other sources. This week we are looking at hitters that are overrated in relation to their ADPs. The upcoming schedule will be:

  • Friday, February 10 - Underrated hitters.
  • Friday, February 17 - Comparing ADP variances from different sources, reviewing ADP movers or other requests from the comments.

Here we go with the overrated hitters (unless stated otherwise, all stat references are for the 2011 season):

  • Catchers: Mike Napoli (ADP 46.37, #2 catcher) is going way too early! Napoli's .344 BABIP inflated his batting average to .320. A .279 BABIP in 2010 yielded a .230 batting average. In 2011, his 25.4% HR per flyball led all hitters with at least 300 at-bats. In 2010 it was 19.3%, and in 2009 it was 16.5%. The ballpark switch certainly helped, but luck also was a factor. Only 5 of his HRs were no-doubters, per Hit Tracker. Also, his H% jumped from 28% in 2010 to 35% in 2011 (a career high). Alex Avila (ADP 109.50) and his .366 BABIP is also overrated. I prefer waiting on the deep catcher position to drafting Napoli in the 3rd or 4th rounds, or Avila in the 8th or 9th rounds, Wait on guys like Matt Wieters (ADP 99.34) or Miguel Montero (ADP 103.34) rather than Napoli, and J.P. Arencibia (ADP 180.00) or Wilson Ramos (ADP 208.22) rather than Avila. In one-catcher leagues, if you drafted Napoli you made a mistake. If you are going to reach for a catcher early in a draft, then reach for Carlos Santana (ADP 36.81), who is going to be so good this year they will make not one but two tourism videos honoring Cleveland.
  • First Basemen: Mark Teixeira (ADP 27.33, 6th 1B) and Mark Trumbo (ADP 142.71, 11th 1B). As I discussed here, I don't like taking a low-batting-average hitter in the first four or so rounds of a draft. Teixeira's BABIP last year was low at .239 and his xBA was .281, so there is hope for a batting-average rebound. But, his xBA was also .281 in 2010 when he hit .256. At age 32, he may be on the downswing of his career. I would rather take a top-five first baseman in the first two rounds (warning: first base is not very deep this year) and let someone else have the batting average risk of Teixeira in the late-second or third round. As for Trumbo, I worry about him getting squeezed out of ABs in the Angels' lineup, and now he may have a lingering injury that will delay or slow him in Spring Training.
  • Second Basemen: Wow, second base is stacked this year with impact top-tier players and depth. Dustin Ackley (ADP 135.95, 10th 2B) is going too soon for my liking. 6 HRs and 6 SBs in 376 PAs - I'll pass. If I still need to fill my 2B slot near the 135th pick, I'll wait and grab Kelly Johnson (ADP 235.30), Jason Kipnis (ADP 164.07), or Aaron Hill (ADP 231.41).
  • Shortstops: Derek Jeter (ADP 125.80, 8th SS) and Asdrubal Cabrera (ADP 71.61, 6th SS). Jeter's .297 batting average was lucky given his .279 xBA and he is in a steady decline (18 HRs in '09, 10 in '10 and 6 in '11). Don't draft on name alone. 15 of Cabrera's 25 homers were just-enoughs, per Hit Tracker. Also, his second-half numbers were worrisome (.238 xBA and 5 SBs). Ron Shandler writes that a .260-10-60-10 downside exists.
  • Third Basemen: David Freese (ADP 160.37, 11th 3B). Freese's .356 BABIP resulted in a .297 batting average. His .273 xBA was closer to what he will have in 2012. He is also being drafted too high based on postseason heroics and given his injury history. In a league with 0-2 DL slots, you are likely to drop him the first time he hits the DL. I like the upside of young Mike Moustakas (ADP 211.79) or Lonnie Chisenhall (ADP 217.15) a few rounds after Freese.
  • Outfielders: Michael Bourn (ADP 57.33(!), 17th OF). For my money, Bourn is the most overrated player being drafted this season. His .369 BABIP resulted in a .294 batting average despite a .277 xBA. Beware that his batting average floor when he is not lucky looks like his 2008: .229 batting average with a .290 BABIP. He is also a power drain for such a high draft slot. If you need SBs, find them elsewhere such as by waiting for Dexter Fowler at ADP 222.86 or Jose Tabata at ADP 224.73. Or, take a chance on burners with huge SB upside if they get enough playing time such as Rajai Davis (ADP 224.01), Jason Bourgeois (ADP 225.62), and Ben Revere (ADP 228.99). Other overrated players are Yoenis Cespedes (ADP 194.93) and Mike Trout (ADP 208.55). Both players have bright futures, but will not start the season in the Majors and are highly unlikely to have an impact this season that comes anywhere close to justifying their draft slots.

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ADP Analysis: Underrated Pitchers

By Tom Warman [January 27, 2012 at 12:00pm CST]

Every Friday during the pre-season I will be analyzing ADP-related issues using the most recent information courtesy of Mock Draft Central and other sources. This week we are looking at pitchers that are underrated in relation to their ADP positions - don't reach too far on the underrated players, the idea is to draft them as near to their ADP spot as possible and get excellent value at that slot. The upcoming schedule will be:

  • Friday, February 3 - Overrated hitters.
  • Friday, February 10 - Underrated hitters.
  • Friday, February 17 - Comparing ADP variances from different sources, reviewing ADP movers or other requests from the comments.

Here we go with the underrated pitchers (unless stated otherwise, all stat references are for the 2011 season):

  • Gameshow time ("Call the American Embassy!") - What qualifying pitcher led all MLB starters in SIERA last year at 2.66? Answer - Zack Greinke with a current ADP of 51.54. Last year his counting stats were deflated by an early season injury and his hr/flyball rate shot up compared to previous seasons (last five years were 7%, 9%, 5%, 8% and then 14% in 2011). He has 2009 upside (2.16 ERA and 242 strikeouts) and pitches in the pathetic NL Central. Bold prediction - Greinke finishes in the top five ranked pitchers this season, and is currently being drafted as the 13th starter.
  • Want credentials that would make Pat Anderson proud? How about a 10.74 k/bb and 2.94 SIERA for Brandon Beachy (ADP 116.95). But something's missing? Only seven wins last year and missed time due to an oblique injury drives down his price. Bold prediction - Beachy has the most value of any Atlanta starter this season.
  • As I discussed here, I use my three bench spots in the RotoAuthority League for back-up hitters to stream at-bats. But, that does not mean you need to draft the back-up hitters. Take a chance in the later rounds of your draft on relievers that may win a closing job in the spring and then drop them for a waiver wire hitter when the season begins if the reliever does not pan out. Players I like to potentially win a closer job in the spring that are going late are Wilton Lopez (ADP 262.64), Brian Fuentes (ADP 336.05), Joel Peralta (ADP 257.47), and Jim Johnson (233.61). Also, as further discussed here and here, we are only chasing one category with closers. So, target late closers such as Matt Capps (ADP 234.12), Frank Francisco (ADP 232.26) and Javy Guerra (ADP 230.78, almost fifty spots behind Kenley Jansen) - each of these three relievers are likely to go far earlier in your draft than these ADP slots. Bold prediction - Wilton Lopez finishes the season with 20+ saves and leads the Astros. Matthew Berry was one season too early. Be sure to keep up with our Closer Depth Chart so you can keep tabs on each team's pecking order.
  • Madison Bumgarner (ADP 75.58) - he finished eighth among qualifying starters last season with a 3.18 SIERA, had a high .322 BABIP, turned his season around after a slow start and pitches in San Francisco. Who let the dogs out? This is a rock solid #2 and elite #3. Bold prediction - Bumgarner has more value this year than Matt Cain. Last year, Bumgarner's xERA was 3.19 compared to a xERA of 3.63 for Cain.
  • Jonathon Niese (ADP 218.76) - see Dan Mennella's excellent write-up here. (Not quite a) bold prediction - Niese has the most value of any NY Met starter this season.
  • Brandon Morrow (ADP 185.07) - Morrow had the largest differential for qualifying starters last season between ERA (4.72) and SIERA (3.31). He had a 10.19 k/9, and this season has an improved Toronto bullpen. Bold prediction - Morrow finishes the season as a solid #3 fantasy starter despite currently being drafted as the 51st starting pitcher.
  • Ryan Dempster (ADP 231.11) and Chris Capuano (ADP 272.98) - Here are a couple of guys you can finish out your rotation with that should be improved this season. Dempster has a hopefully improved defense behind him this season with David DeJesus added and Aramis Ramirez removed, and his SIERA (3.79) and xERA (3.72) were much better than his ERA (4.80). Capuano pitches in LA, and his SIERA (3.60) and xERA (3.64) were also much better than his ERA (4.55). Other end draft starters I would target are Tim Stauffer (ADP 246.09; I prefer him to Dempster and believe that he will be drafted ahead of Dempster in most leagues outside of Wrigleyville), Jake Peavy (ADP 232.65, you can stash during his DL stints) and James McDonald (ADP 305.03; Ron Shandler writes that his upside this season is a 3.50 ERA and 15 wins).
  • Yu Darvish (ADP 126.80) - Darvish has all the makings of a popular guy everyone will want to own if he starts strong, and you can take advantage of the owner in your league that makes trades based on name recognition over stats by selling very high early in the season. If you don't know who that owner is in your league, then it is you. Draft Darvish at 126 and then trade him for Yovani Gallardo (ADP 50.92), Daniel Hudson (ADP 87.33) or Bumgarner early in the season.
  • Sadly, this is the last entry of the week: Stephen Strasburg (ADP 61.95) - this is probably the last season the former USA Olympic pitcher (no, not in the year 3022) is drafted outside of the top 7 starters (he is currently being drafted as the 16th starter). Take the 160 innings he will pitch this year, and fill in another 30-40 with an elite reliever from the waiver wire and you have a top 7 starter's numbers.

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ADP Analysis: Overrated Starting Pitchers

By Tom Warman [January 20, 2012 at 11:00am CST]

Every Friday during the pre-season I will be analyzing ADP-related issues using the most recent ADP information courtesy of Mock Draft Central and other sources. We start this week by looking at pitchers that are overrated in relation to their ADP positions (don't trade an "overrated" top tier starter appearing on this list for Chris Volstad, unless it is because you have a fanboy mancrush on Theo Epstein), and the upcoming schedule will be:

  • Friday, January 27 - Underrated starting pitchers.
  • Friday, February 3 - Overrated hitters.
  • Friday, February 10 - Underrated hitters.
  • Friday, February 17 - Comparing ADP variances from different sources or other requests from the comments.

Leave any other ADP-related requests in the comments, and I will try to add as many as possible to the pre-season schedule. Here we go with the overrated pitchers (unless stated otherwise, all stat references are for the 2011 season):

  • Any starter in the top 15 overall (Justin Verlander is at ADP 8, Clayton Kershaw at ADP 13 and Roy Halladay at ADP 15) - As I discussed here, I am in favor of drafting a starter in rounds 2 or 3 because a 200-inning starter will have about 13% of your total innings (assuming 1500 inning limit) and a 600 at-bat hitter will have about 7% of your at-bats. I want to lock in 13% of my innings with quality stats since I have flexibility to find cumulative hitting statistics elsewhere, including by streaming at-bats. However, taking a pitcher in the top 15 is too early in this newfound era of the pitcher. I am taking Joey Votto (ADP 10), Evan Longoria (ADP 12), or Prince Fielder (ADP 16) before a starter.
  • The First Five Closers Off The Board - Also as I discussed here, do not be the owner starting closer runs in your draft, you are only chasing one category (an elite set-up reliver can get you similar non-saves stats 50-150 picks later, or off the waiver wire). I do not care if the first five are Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan Papelbon, Ricky Vaughn (where can I buy the Dorn jersey shown in that link?), or the late great Rod Beck's Des Moines center field RV, resist the urge to take a top closer! This urge will grow if top closers begin falling in your draft, but since we are only chasing one category (saves totals, which are about as predicable as throwing darts against a spinning dart board while blindfolded) the value of closers is relative to where others are being drafted. Craig Kimbrel (current ADP 54) does not increase in value falling to the eighth or ninth round if no other closers are being drafted. Ignore ADP slots or draft sheets, and just try to target getting three out of the thirty closers wherever they are being drafted. I do not believe that any owner should punt saves, just saying getting any three is fine. We will see next week that the bottom tier closers are underrated - wait on drafting closers and then pounce in rounds 11 through 18 to make sure you get three.
  • Jeremy Hellickson (ADP 131) - Among qualified starters, he had the lowest BABIP in MLB last year (.223) and had the highest differential (1.83) between SIERA on the high end (4.78) and ERA on the low end (2.95). He also has a measly 1.63 K/BB rate. And he pitches in the AL East. I'd rather have Anibal Sanchez (ADP 132, 3.29 SIERA), Max Scherzer (ADP 147, 3.63 SIERA with a 3.11 K/BB), or Shaun Marcum (ADP 154, NL Central starter, 3.91 SIERA) or Brandon Morrow (185 ADP, 3.31 SIERA, 10.19 K/9 (!)).
  • Jered Weaver (ADP 31) - 2.41 ERA masked 3.67 SIERA and 3.80 xFIP. His hr/f dropped from 8% each year from 2008 through 2010 to 6% in 2011, and was carried by an insane 3% in the first half of 2011 (10% second half of 2011). Expect regression. Give me instead Zack Greinke (ADP 51, more on this stud sleeper to follow in later posts) or teammate Dan Haren (ADP 39, 3.34 SIERA). Does this mean that if Weaver and Zack Greinke are sitting on the board at 31 that you should take Zack Greinke? The answer is, as George Lucas would have Darth Vader say (or as George Lucas would stupidly remix years later over the audio of your draft), NOOOOOOOOOOOO! It means that you take a hitter, wait a round, and still get a superior pitcher in Zack Greinke to the one you were going to take at 31 in Jared Weaver.
  • Mark Buehrle (ADP 275) - 4.38 SIERA and 4.78 k/9. I prefer the upside of Jon Niese (ADP 279, 7.89 k/9, 3.42 SIERA) or Mike Minor (ADP 296, 3.76 SIERA) instead.
  • Ian Kennedy (ADP 70) - 3.44 SIERA, and the 21 wins will cause owners to overreach. Not saying just yet I would take Madison Bumgarner (ADP 74, 3.18 SIERA) or Daniel Hudson (ADP 78) over Kennedy, but I would rather wait on my No. 2 or a high-end No. 3 starter to get one of these two a round later.

As a bonus, like seeing the Avengers teaser at the end of the Captain America credits (yes, I was one of the five or so nerds in the theater opening weekend that knew it was coming and forced my girlfriend to sit through five minutes of credits), here is a guy that seems like he would be overrated but is being drafted at about his correct slot:

  • Stephen Strasburg (ADP 58) - He will put up sick numbers for 160 innings, and then you can round out the other forty innings or so with bantha fodder set-up men from the waiver wire. I love taking him before the next two starters on the ADP list (Matt Cain at 65 and James Shields at 66). Nab him in the fifth round if he is available, particularly if you have not drafted a starter yet.

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